RSO Staff Picks: Week 12

Updated: November 26th 2015

com_121120_nfl_Brandt

Week 11 Results

1. Goodwin 11-3

2t. Wendell – 10-4 + FantasyDraft Win

2t. Papson – 10-4

4. English – 7-7

Everyone got back on track this week but points leader Kyle English went out on a limb with some of his picks and it backfired, as he went 7-7 and plummeted to 3rd place overall in the standings. Goody took the week in picks going an impressive 11-3 with a lot of tough games, and Wendell took down another FantasyDraft win, putting him even with Kyle now at 4 FantasyDraft wins on the year. It is going to be an exciting final 6 weeks for the guys!

Overall Standings

1. Wendell – 102-59 + 4 fantasy wins (Week 4, 8, 10, & 11)

2. Goodwin – 102-59 + 2 fantasy wins (Week 2 & 9)

3. English – 100-61 + 4 fantasy wins (Week 1, 3, 5 & 7)

4. Papson – 96-65 + 1 fantasy win (Week 6)

Huge shakeup in the standings this week as Wendell and Goodwin move ahead of English and both sit at 102-59 in picks. Wendell has the overall lead due to his 4 FantasyDraft wins versus Goody’s 2 wins. Pappy is still only 6 games out of first and as last week shows, anything can still happen with 6 weeks left to go. Here is what the guys have for Week 12:

NFL Game Picks

Game Wendell Papson Goodwin English

PHI @ DET

eagles eagles lions lions

CAR @ DAL

panthers panthers panthers

CHI @ GB

packers packers packers packers

OAK @ TEN

raiders raiders raiders raiders

BUF @ KC

chiefs chiefs chiefs

TB @ IND

colts colts colts colts

NYG @ WAS

redskins

NO @ HOU

texans texans texans texans

MIN @ ATL

falcons falcons falcons

STL @ CIN

bengals bengals bengals bengals

SD @ JAX

jaguars jaguars jaguars jaguars

MIA @ NYJ

jets jets jets jets

ARZ @ SF

cardinals cardinals cardinals cardinals

PIT @ SEA

seahawks seahawks seahawks

NE @ DEN

patriots patriots patriots

BAL @ CLV

ravens

Young Jory wanted another chance to redeem himself from his tough performance a couple weeks ago. His picks for the week are: Lions, Panthers, Packers, Raiders, Bills, Bucs, Redskins, Saints, Falcons, Bengals, Jags, Jets, Cards, Seahawks, Pats, and Browns. Good luck buddy!

FantasyDraft Lineups

RSO is partnering this season with FantasyDraft, the official daily fantasy partner of Reality Sports Online. By now, you should know the drill. Here are the contests we have going this week:

  1. Weekly FreeRoll offering $250 in prizes and a free ticket into FantasyDraft’s $5 Wishbone Contest next week for anyone who beats the “RSOEXPERT”. Also, the top finisher will receive free entry into the RSO Big Week 14 Contest. There are only 50 slots and it is first come first serve, so sign up now!
  2. $10 entry 50/50 Beat the Expert Contest where the top 10 places get $18 in real cash and for anyone who can beat RSOEXPERT, a free entry into the Week 13 $5 Entry Wishbone Contest. Also, the top finisher will receive free entry into the RSO Big Week 14 Contest. There are only 20 slots for this contest, so check it out now!

It should be noted that as a resident of New York, Stephen will not be able to actually participate in the contests due to the NY Attorney General’s recent ruling, but he is still competing with the other staffers internally and therefore his lineup is shown below. Here are our staff’s lineups for this week (since Wendell’s lineup was best even though he could not enter personally in Week 11, he is again the RSOEXPERT lineup for the week):

Stephen Wendell (RSOEXPERT for Week 12)

CSW

Kyle English

Week12DailyKyle

Matt Papson 

Pappy

Matt Goodwin

Goody 2

 

 

RSO Staff Picks: Week 11

Updated: November 20th 2015

Mariota-Bortles

Week 10 Results

1t. Wendell – 5-9 + FantasyDraft Win

1t. Goodwin – 5-9

1t. English – 5-9

4. Papson – 4-10

Well nobody thought we could have a repeat of Week 2, but when 10 underdogs get wins in one week, we were bound to have a tough week. Everyone struggled with Wendell, Goody, and English going 5-9 and Pappy going 4-10 (it should be noted he felt good about many of these dogs to cover but could not pick them outright). Wendell has the de factor tiebreaker for the week with another great FantasyDraft performance, finishing 2nd overall in the FreeRoll.

Overall Standings

1. English – 93-54 + 4 fantasy wins (Week 1, 3, 5 & 7)

2. Wendell – 92-55 + 3 fantasy wins (Week 4, 8 & 10)

3. Goodwin – 91-56 + 2 fantasy wins (Week 2 & 9)

4. Papson – 86-61 + 1 fantasy win (Week 6)

English stays in the lead by 1 game but Wendell closes the gap with another FantasyDraft win. Pappy needs to make a move fast or else it might get too late. Should be an exciting finish. Here is what the guys have for Week 11:

NFL Game Picks

Game Wendell Papson Goodwin English

TEN @ JAX

titans jaguars jaguars jaguars

TB @ PHI

eagles eagles eagles eagles

OAK @ DET

raiders raiders lions raiders

IND @ ATL

falcons falcons falcons falcons

NYJ @ HOU

texans texans texans jets

DEN @ CHI

broncos bears broncos broncos

STL @ BAL

ravens ravens ravens rams

DAL @ MIA

cowboys cowboys dolphins cowboys

WAS @ CAR

panthers panthers panthers panthers

KC @ SD

chiefs chiefs chiefs chiefs

GB @ MIN

packers packers packers vikings

SF @ SEA

seahawks seahawks seahawks seahawks

CIN @ ARI

cardinals cardinals cardinals bengals

BUF @ NE

patriots patriots patriots patriots

FantasyDraft Lineups

RSO is partnering this season with FantasyDraft, the official daily fantasy partner of Reality Sports Online. By now, you should know the drill. Here are the contests we have going this week:

  1. Weekly FreeRoll offering $250 in prizes and a free ticket into FantasyDraft’s $5 Wishbone Contest next week for anyone who beats the “RSOEXPERT”. Also, the top finisher will receive free entry into the RSO Big Week 14 Contest. There are only 50 slots and it is first come first serve, so sign up now!
  2. $10 entry 50/50 Beat the Expert Contest where the top 10 places get $18 in real cash and for anyone who can beat RSOEXPERT, a free entry into the Week 12 $5 Entry Wishbone Contest. Also, the top finisher will receive free entry into the RSO Big Week 14 Contest. There are only 20 slots for this contest, so check it out now!

It should be noted that as a resident of New York, Stephen will not be able to actually participate in the contests due to the NY Attorney General’s recent ruling, but he has nevertheless shared his entry below. Here are our staff’s lineups for this week (since Wendell’s lineup was best even though he could not enter in Week 10, he is the RSOEXPERT this week):

Stephen Wendell (RSOEXPERT for Week 11)

CSW

Kyle English

Week11DailyKyle

Matt Papson 

Papson

Matt Goodwin

Goodwin

RSO Staff Picks: Week 10

Updated: November 12th 2015

Rex-Ryan-Buffalo-Bills-Ticket-Sales

Week 9 Results

1. Goodwin– 10-4+ FantasyDraft Win

2t. Papson- 9-5

2t. English – 9-5

2t. Wendell – 9-5

Another solid week for the staff overall, but Goodwin sweeps the week with a 10-4 picks record and a great FantasyDraft performance, finishing 5th overall with 202.20 points, riding the backs of Steelers DeAngelo Williams and Antonio Brown. Congrats to user “xbigtimberz” for finishing 1st with 227.24 points. Goodwin is the RSOEXPERT for Week 10.

Overall Standings

1. English – 88-45 + 4 fantasy wins (Week 1, 3, 5 & 7)

2. Wendell – 87-46 + 2 fantasy wins (Week 4 & 8)

3. Goodwin – 86-47 + 2 fantasy wins (Week 2 & 9)

4. Papson – 82-51 + 1 fantasy win (Week 6)

Goody gains a game on the field, but English stays in the lead by 1 game. Wendell trails by 1 game still and Papson is still only one huge week from leaping right back in the mix for the season long championship. Here is what the guys are thinking will happen in Week 10:

NFL Game Picks

Game Wendell Goodwin Papson English

BUF @ NYJ

jets jets bills jets

DET @ GB

packers packers packers packers

DAL @ TB

cowboys bucs cowboys cowboys

CAR @ TEN

panthers panthers panthers panthers

CHI @ STL

bears bears rams rams

NO @ WAS

redskins saints saints saints

MIA @ PHI

eagles eagles eagles eagles

CLV @ PIT

steelers steelers steelers steelers

JAX @ BLT

ravens ravens ravens jaguars

MIN @ OAK

raiders raiders raiders raiders

NE @ NYG

patriots patriots patriots patriots

KC @ DEN

broncos broncos broncos broncos

ARZ @ SEA

seahawks seahawks seahawks cardinals
 HOU @ CIN bengals 
bengals bengals

bengals

**Additionally, Matt Goodwin’s son, Jory, has been telling his father he can pick the games better than he can, so let’s see how the future RSO GM does this week (if he takes the week, Matt has promised to give him the $5 he would have earned if he had just listened to his son):

Jets, Packers, Bucs, Panthers, Rams, Saints, Eagles, Browns, Jags, Raiders, Pats, Broncos, Seahawks, and Bengals…good luck young Jory!

FantasyDraft Lineups

RSO is partnering this season with FantasyDraft, the official daily fantasy partner of Reality Sports Online. By now, you should know the drill. Here are the contests we have going this week:

  1. Weekly FreeRoll offering $250 in prizes and a free ticket into FantasyDraft’s $5 Wishbone Contest next week for anyone who beats the “RSOEXPERT”. Also, the top finisher will receive free entry into the RSO Big Week 14 Contest. There are only 50 slots and it is first come first serve, so sign up now!
  2. $10 entry 50/50 Beat the Expert Contest where the top 10 places get $18 in real cash and for anyone who can beat RSOEXPERT, a free entry into the Week 11 $5 Entry Wishbone Contest. Also, the top finisher will receive free entry into the RSO Big Week 14 Contest. There are only 20 slots for this contest, so check it out now!

It should be noted that as a resident of New York, Stephen will not be able to participate in the contests due to the NY Attorney General’s recent ruling, but he has nevertheless shared what would be his entry below. Here are our staff’s lineups for this week (since Goodwin won Week 9, he is the RSOEXPERT this week):

Matt Goodwin (RSOEXPERT for Week 10)

Goodwin

Kyle English

Week10DailyKyle

Matt Papson 

Papson

Stephen Wendell

CSW

The Art of Trading-RSO Style

Updated: November 6th 2015

Danny Woodhead could be an interesting player to acquire at the trade deadline.

Danny Woodhead could be an interesting player to acquire at the trade deadline.

When you and your friends signed up to join a Reality Sports Online league, you basically walked into the corn like in Field of Dreams. You weren’t necessarily sure what your initial strategy would be, but like other owners on the platform, you needed something more challenging, more engaging, basically an NFL-General Manager experience to break from the monotony of the everyday redraft league.

That’s exactly what you’re entrenched in and winning your league against your friends who you consider to be of above-average intelligence would be sweet, very sweet. Now you are at the point where you’ve meticulously managed your roster, strategized over rookie draft picks, made a deal or two, had some injuries, doled out some long term contracts, used your franchise tag and are ready to get raise your fist in the air for your first RSO championship.

The final piece to that roster puzzle to win your league may or may not come at the trade deadline, which is upcoming for several leagues. For non-contenders, the trade deadline becomes a chance to salvage some value (particularly future rookie draft picks or developmental players) for expiring players who won’t be retained but may help a contender. For contenders, the trade deadline is the last chance of the season to add a piece to help you for your championship run and potentially in future years.

The art of trading in your RSO league is all contextual and situation dependent which makes it the most complex set of scenarios you can face down the stretch in your attempt to gain lifetime bragging rights on your buddies because flags fly forever and your championship forever becomes part of league lore.

With that, let’s discuss some scenarios that you may be facing at the deadline, with a quick primer first.

Every now and then, we get Tweets asking about trades and whether or not you should do them. Let me start with some obvious advice-context really matters. Of course I’d rather have Julio Jones than Allen Robinson all things being equal. But if Robinson is on a second-round rookie deal and Jones costs me $30 million a year, Robinson’s value and point production allows so much flexibility that he’s more valuable than Jones to me. So make sure you consider the following when making any trade deadline deal:

1) Are You a Contender or a Non-Contender?

This can be a tricky question depending on what kind of league you are in. For instance, the top four records make the playoffs in my league plus another two wild-cards based on total points scored. So there’s multiple ways into the playoffs and teams that are on the fringe of one or the other can still be chasing these up until the last week of the season. Which makes our league super-exciting, but also hard to gauge how a team sees itself.

To me, total points scored is a good barometer at this point for how your team really is performing. I know there are bye weeks and everything, but if I learned anything in business school, it is the bigger the sample size, the better and a sample size of 30 typically takes out the randomness. So if you go to your standings and to the breakdown section, you’ll see your record if you played every team in your league each week. If your record is strong (sample size is definitely bigger than 30), it means you are putting up ample total points to contend in your league. If it is below .500, your overall record may mean you are getting lucky and you should be a seller.

Every owner has to decide where they fit at the deadline, but false optimism usually leads to straddling and backfires. So if you are playing for next season, act like it and get some assets that will help you more than having a few more weeks of Jonathan Stewart.

2) You don’t always have to get the best player in the deal, but make sure you are walking away with the best valued player in the deal.

Your lineup is like a puzzle and you have to put together the best lineup possible to win. Through the auction, rookie draft, in-season free agency and trades you’ve made thus far, you have to fit the player and the cap space you are targeting into your lineup. The natural inclination as your league trade deadline approaches is to go hard after the obvious names, a bunch of studs that you think can put you over the top, even if their contracts may not be good.

Hold off on this approach, unless the capital required is reasonable. The truth is if you are contending, you probably have a lot of solid pieces already. You don’t need two more years of Adrian Peterson at $25-30 million a year, you need Eric Decker at $5-$8 million a year for the next two-three years (or even one year). Plus the trade capital required to get a player like Decker will be way less (Editor’s Note: Goody indeed just traded Kendall Wright and his 2016 2nd Round Pick for Decker).

3) If you’re trading rookie draft picks, figure out what they are worth to you. What’s a Rookie Draft Pick Worth? should help you immensely in that pursuit.

In my main league, I’ve seen rookie draft picks (particularly first rounders) move back and forth all season as teams have gone in and out of determining whether they are contenders. Meanwhile, the top two contenders (me included) have kept their picks intact and watched these teams make these moves.

Examples of these trades include Ben Roethlisberger’s owner panicking when he went down and trading his first for a one-year, $15.0 million Drew Brees deal (which so far, along with a solid cast has kept that team near the top of the standings), and a team traded a first rounder and Coby Fleener for DeMarco Murray (who was franchised in 2015). In total there have been fifteen trades so far this regular season in my 12-team league, most of which involving 2016 first-round draft picks.

I can with fair certainty say that save for myself and another top team, that most of the serious playoff contenders (and by that I mean the ones who can do serious playoff damage), don’t have draft picks to trade at the deadline to upgrade their teams. As a result, for me, it may be best to stand pat and not make moves unless this other top team does. Assuredly, assuming team health, trading first rounders seems to be out of the question when I can stand pat and still have a very good shot of being a top two team without making a deal. Thus in my particular situation, even though my draft pick figures to be towards the end of the first round, I’ve determined that it isn’t likely worth it to me to trade my 2016 first rounder to try to get a player to help ensure I win the championship this year. That doesn’t mean I don’t have other players I couldn’t move to get another piece (more on that later).

Please note that I’m more clingy to my rookie draft picks in a league with four-year rookie deals than three-year deals, especially since most owners are already one year into those deals. So if you are in the last year of an Eddie Lacy rookie deal for instance, getting something of substance back could be a coup.

4) Remember that you aren’t necessarily looking to “win the trade”, but rather get the value that propels your team to greater heights either now or later, depending on what your goal is.

So many trades don’t happen in fantasy leagues, because one owner is trying to get over on another. We’re all smart owners on this platform, so appropriate value the best way you know how. At the deadline you have two types of teams-contenders and non-contenders. Contenders want help now for the short-term (and maybe a year beyond) and non-contenders want future assets in the form of draft-picks or development players. If a non-contender decides that trading Martellus Bennett for three years of Jay Ajayi floats their boat, then other owners shouldn’t judge. The same thing goes for if a team makes a move going for the playoffs and it blows up in their face. Last year, a leaguemate did exactly that in my league and I think they’ll be way more careful at the deadline this year.

5) Throwing the farm and multiple good players for one great player doesn’t make as much sense in a league like this as it does in a redraft league.

I’ve seen some Tweets lately asking my views on multi-player trades. The one that stuck out to me was someone asking me if they should trade Jordan Matthews, Mike Evans (both on original rookie deals) and Gio Bernard for DeAndre Hopkins (3 years, $48.0 million) and a 2016 2nd rounder? Of course, I drilled in on context, but while this trade may make sense in a redraft league, no way am I give up two cheap, young assets plus Bernard for Hopkins (who I do think is a Top-5 wideout).

The upside is just too high on Matthews and Evans, plus the value given of three fantasy starters for one studly starter just doesn’t compute for me.

If I’m a contender at the deadline, I’m not looking to get back less starters than I’m giving up, unless I have a super deep bench. If making a deal like the above, though to get Hopkins means I have to start a player I can’t trust weekly in the playoffs to replace a guy I just traded while giving up multiple starters, the point differential Hopkins is giving me doesn’t matter. I’m not starting Nate Washington or Malcom Floyd in the playoffs without a serious down-the-stretch track record or injuries just to get myself a player like Hopkins.

6) Don’t be afraid of the one-year contract expiring player for several reasons.

A few weeks ago, a Twitter follower @naandrews19 sent me a few messages about how to value first year players. Nick was asking me how to value these in his league when others were so focused on multi-year players and suggested I write an article about it. First off, thanks Nick for the idea and for following me. Second, hopefully I can address the one-year expiring player, who I do believe has more value than your league counterparts think.

Nick was saying that most of his league was very afraid to trade their picks for “rental” players, guys on one-year deals. This is faulty logic to me. I know the tendency in leagues like this is to try to lock up a bunch of studs on multi-year deals. However, sometimes that blows up in an owners face. In fact, in your first few years, your best team strategy is probably to avoid getting yourself into bad contracts. Ask the owner of Charles Johnson about multi-year deals now and see what he says if he/she can get out a complete sentence without a bunch of expletives.

With that, let me be explicit. There are certain types of players worth trading your first-round draft picks for on expiring deals. Those players to me are guys that you’d consider putting the franchise tag on in 2016. If you already have an obvious franchise tag player based on your league dynamics, or the amount this newly acquired player would cost you in 2016, don’t fret. You still may be willing to part with a 2016 first rounder if you know that you will be in the bottom few picks of the first round and the player you’re getting is worth it. Logically, you’d prefer to give up a second rounder because the picks don’t snake, so you aren’t really giving up much from that standpoint with a second rounder. The happy go between may be to give up a second rounder and a player (either a mid-tier player or a devy guy if you have many of them).

In terms of examples, guys like Danny Woodhead (still currently in the Top 5 in PPR league scoring at running back) are prime examples of players who may not have a ton of future value but can make a significant contribution for your team towards a title.

7) Who is your biggest roadblock to winning a championship and what are they doing at the deadline to improve their team?

Sometimes you have to follow a game theory strategy and only make moves if you perceive your biggest roadblock is going to make them (or already has made them). As a contending team, you have a certain window to remain competitive, so keep that in mind in any deals made. That said, on my current team, I’d be more than willing to move a guy like Chris Conley and his 6’3′, 205 lb frame and 4.35 40-time on a cheap multi-year deal if it netted me the piece I needed to put me ahead of my rival. If the right player was available and the other trading partner wanted someone else in the deal with Conley, I feel like a guy like Vernon Davis could be of interest in his new Denver locale.

If the other team is doing nothing, you may not need to do anything (sometimes doing nothing is actually the best strategy), but be acutely aware of where their weaknesses are and see how you really match up with them in a one-game playoff scenario

8) Non-contending teams should be looking to unload bad contracts as well as pick up future assets.

I feel like I’ve been banging this drum all year, but non-contending teams want three things in this order: 1) future draft picks 2) to rid themselves of bad contracts 3) developmental players. If you are a team that’s fallen on bad luck with injuries or non-performance but have a wealth at a certain position, perhaps you package that wealth with a bad contract (think guys like Michael Floyd or Victor Cruz) to get a combination of assets and contract relief. Heck, if you haven’t moved a player out for the season to IR, you can even trade them if they have future years (guys like Arian Foster) if you are thinking they won’t come back at the same level or at all. Like the NFL, however, you can’t trade players off of your IR on the RSO platform.

So, those are some of my thoughts as your league deadline approaches. I find myself currently to be a buyer in both leagues I’m in (I’m a jaw-dropping 8-0 in my writers league, dominating in total points scored and searching for an area to improve in a 10 team league and I’m 5-3 in my main league with the second highest point total). I don’t know if I’ll get any deals done in these leagues, but I certainly am thinking about potential offers at this point.

Feel free to reach out to me on Twitter @mattgoody2 to talk trade strategy, general questions, start/sit, whatever is on your mind RSO wise and good luck this week!

RSO Staff Picks: Week 9

Updated: November 6th 2015

Manziel

Week 8 Results

1. Wendell– 11-3+ FantasyDraft Win

2t. Papson- 10-4

2t. English – 10-4

4. Goodwin – 9-5

Wendell sweeps the week in dominating fashion with a 11-3 record despite missing the Sunday and Monday night games (kudos to Papson for picking the Broncos win correctly when it felt like the whole world was on the Packers). Additionally, Wendell’s FantasyDraft lineup was good enough for 2nd out of 50 (congrats to user “kneary22” for edging out Wendell by less than 0.2 points for 1st overall), which will make him the RSOEXPERT next week. It is worth noting that Wendell also utilized this lineup to finish 44th out of 5,755 in the $150,000 Run & Gun Contest (good for $250), and he also entered another lineup with Drew Brees as his QB that finished 31st in the same Run & Gun Contest (good for $300). Quite a week for Wendell, and if he can do it, so you can you guys – enter one of the money contests this week on FantasyDraft.

Overall Standings

1. English – 79-40 + 4 fantasy wins (Week 1, 3, 5 & 7)

2. Wendell – 78-41 + 2 fantasy wins (Week 4 & 8)

3. Goodwin – 76-43 + 1 fantasy win (Week 2)

4. Papson – 73-46 + 1 fantasy win (Week 6)

English stays in the lead by 1 game, but it is still anybody’s year. Wendell trails by 1 game and Papson is still only 6 games behind English after his third straight week at 10-4. Here is what the guys are thinking will happen in Week 8:

NFL Game Picks

Game Wendell Papson Goodwin English

CLV @ CIN

bengals bengals bengals bengals

GB @ CAR

packers packers packers packers

WAS @ NE

patriots patriots patriots patriots

TEN @ NO

saints saints saints saints

MIA @ BUF

bills bills bills bills

STL @ MIN

vikings rams vikings vikings

JAX @ NYJ

jets jets jets jets

OAK @ PIT

steelers steelers steelers steelers

NYG @ TB

giants giants giants giants

ATL @ SF

falcons falcons falcons falcons

DEN @ IND

broncos broncos colts broncos

PHI @ DAL

eagles eagles eagles cowboys

CHI @ SD

chargers bears chargers bears

FantasyDraft Lineups

RSO is proud to be partnering this season with FantasyDraft, the official daily fantasy partner of Reality Sports Online. By now, you should know the drill. Here are the contests we have going this week:

  1. Weekly FreeRoll offering $250 in prizes and a free ticket into FantasyDraft’s $50,000 Wishbone Contest next week for anyone who beats the “RSOEXPERT”. There are only 50 slots and it is first come first serve, so sign up now!
  2. $10 entry 50/50 Beat the Expert Contest where the top 10 places get $18 in real cash and for anyone who can beat RSOEXPERT, a free entry into the Week 10 $5 Entry Wishbone Contest. There are only 20 slots for this contest, so check it out now!

Here are our lineups for this week (since Stephen won Week 8, he is the RSOEXPERT this week):

Stephen Wendell (RSOEXPERT for Week 9)

Screen Shot 2015-11-05 at 9.24.34 PM

Kyle English

Week9DailyKyle

Matt Papson 

Papson Week 9

Matt Goodwin

Goodwin Week 9