RSO Writers’ League Rookie Draft

Updated: July 16th 2017

For our RSO readers, we wanted to give an open look into our Writer’s League Rookie Draft. Since we did our draft through an email chain we started by declaring our franchised players for the upcoming season. A list of who was tagged and for how much is listed below followed by the pick-by-pick selections and comments from each owner.

Stephen Wendell – Jimmy Graham ($10,331,667)

I tagged Jimmy Graham because I am obviously so confident in the draft pick I just made (Engram)

Luke Patrick – Travis Kelce ($10,331,667)

I tagged Travis Kelce because I assume any guy with a reality show is a good investment for football purposes.

Matt Goodwin – Melvin Gordon ($20,323,333)

I tagged Melvin Gordon because, well he dominated last year and has less competition this year. The $20.3m price tag seemed about right compared to what I thought he’d get on the open market.

Kyle English – Matt Ryan ($19,242,667)

I tagged Matt Ryan because he has Julio and should come out and torch everyone after last year’s super bowl embarrassment.

Nick Andrews – Drew Brees ($24,311,719)

I tagged Drew Brees for several reasons:

  1. a) Many of the other QBs were being tagged leaving Brees to be the target of the auction if I let him go
  2. b) Being in a win now mode allowed me to justify overpaying from the usually conservative salaries I give QBs and;
  3. c) There was enough interest in Brees through trade talks that if I am unsuccessful in my quest for a repeat championship he should bring back a couple of decent assets during this season.

Matt Papson – Eli Manning ($19,242,667)

I decided to tag Eli for $19.2MM despite the hefty price tag and my significant dollar commitments to other quarterbacks for a couple of reasons. One, it’s a superflex league where quarterbacks are the highest scoring position and where I feel the ownership (in general) is severely undervaluing quarterbacks. Two, I believe Eli is poised to have perhaps the finest statistical year of his career, but I’m not confident about his long-term prospects. Finally, even though I’ve got a bunch of money tied up in Andrew Luck & Carson Palmer, I’m not 100% confident Palmer will return to form, even though I still feel good about the odds.

Jaron Foster – Jameis Winston ($19,242,667)

Given the superflex format and lack of quality quarterbacks that will be available in the auction, the franchise tag price seemed reasonable to keep a young QB who is ready to take the next step with some new toys to play with.

Bob Cowper – None

I tagged nobody because, well, my team just wasn’t very good.

Dave Sanders – None

Bernard Faller – None

2017 RSO Writer’s League Draft Results

Below is a transcription of each pick and comments that the owner made during their selection. Included also are the trades that occurred during the draft.

Corey Davis

1.01 – Corey Davis

Luke Patrick: I opted for Corey Davis, but it was a hard call for me with Fournette and McCaffrey beckoning at a position of need.   With a bloated A-Rob (Allen Robinson) contract and an invaluable 4-year control on a potential stud WR proved too much for me to resist, I opted for the potential HR.

1.02 – Leonard Fournette

Bob Cowper: Even though Jacksonville isn’t great, I think he will be dominant enough to be a valuable fantasy player from the start (albeit less so than Zeke).  I think Fournette’s pass catching ability is underrated so as long as he can be an average pass blocker he has a shot at staying on the field for 3 downs.

1.03 – Christian McCaffrey

Jaron Foster: Between draft stock and lack of competition, this is a fairly easy choice for me. He should have a high PPR floor even if he doesn’t turn into a 3-down back and a high ceiling if he does.

1.04 – Joe Mixon

Matt Papson: I entered the Rookie draft with selections 4 and 6. My plan, which was feasible until a few weeks before the draft, was to land two of the four elite running backs — Fournette, McCaffrey, Mixon, and Cook. When the draft fell Davis, Fournette, McCaffrey, I was faced with a difficult decision. I preferred Mixon to Cook, though not by much, and I thought there was a chance if I took Cook, perhaps Mixon would still be around at 6. I was not confident the opposite would be true.

1.05 – Dalvin Cook

Nick Andrews: I traded up before the draft started sending the 1.10 and a 2018 1st knowing that I wanted to get one of the top 5 rookies. Once all the other players were selected through the first four this was an easy choice to make. Cook was considered the 1.01 up until the combine and depending on your expectations from Latavius Murray this could be his backfield from week 1. He has the skills to be a 3-down back and should help to take some pressure off of Sam Bradford.

1.06 – Mike Williams

Papson: As it turned out it didn’t matter. I took Mixon, Cook went 5th, and I was essentially forced to take Mike Williams by default. Williams is the #1 WR on my board but was not planning to take unless I had to because of existing depth at the position. Best available reigns supreme.

1.07 – O.J. Howard

Bob: Struggled with this one a bit.  I haven’t been shy about my Howard concerns – he’s obviously an athletic freak but he was so underutilized at Alabama and so much of his production came in two games against Clemson.  To those who argue that the Alabama offense just doesn’t use the TE, I would counter by saying that it hasn’t relied on a run-first QB like Jalen Hurts either but Saban found a freak athlete he just had to work into the game plan.  Why not with Howard?  He might have the lowest floor of some of the others in contention at 1.07 but it’s hard to say no to somebody of his size and speed.  Having Antonio Brown and Jordy Nelson under contract also factored in, figured I should fill the TE spot rather than taking John Ross or reaching for one of the second-tier RBs.

1.08 – Kareem Hunt

Matt Goodwin: As someone who owned Spencer Ware last season in this league, I’m picking Kareem Hunt because I think he’s very talented and in a situation where he can win the Chiefs starting running back job this season and if he does, that’s fantasy gold. I’m intrigued by the fact that Pro Football Focus ranked him third in its elusiveness rating. Also, the Chiefs traded up to get him, which speaks volumes about what they think of him. Hunt caught six balls in multiple games this season and has a nose for the end zone and big plays. I’m happy to pick what some are calling the “steal of the NFL draft” and who Louis Riddick had effusive praise for, comparing him to Emmitt Smith. As someone who graduated from Miami University, I’d be remiss if I didn’t take the opportunity to pick a future star from the MAC.

1.09 – Alvin Kamara

Jaron: I took Kamara to back up the newly acquired Mark Ingram. It would have been difficult to choose between Hunt and Kamara, given Hunt’s ideal landing spot, so I’m glad the decision was made for me. I expect Kamara will sit behind Ingram and AP for a year, and then will take over when one or both leave the bayou.

1.10 – John Ross

Kyle English: Don’t really need a WR, but that’s far and away where the best value is at this point.  Still struggled quite a bit with this one, but ultimately decided on Ross.  Quite worried about competition for targets there in Cincy and his injury history, but at the 1.10 I can’t let him fall any further.

*TRADE ALERT*

Bob Trades: Jordy Nelson

Luke Trades: 2.08, 2.06, Giovanni Bernard, Tyler Lockett

*TRADE ALERT*

Papson Trades: 1.06 (Mike Williams)

Luke Trades: 2.01, 2.09, 2018 2nd, Jerrick McKinnon

 

2.01 – Juju Smith-Schuster

Papson: Flush with 3 2018 1st round picks, and with 7, 8, and 9 (Howard, Hunt, Kamara) falling fairly favorably, I briefly negotiated for the 1.10 before making a deal for 2.01 and 2.09 in exchange for Mike Williams. My intention here was to end up with two of the following three: JuJu Smith-Schuster, Patrick Mahomes, and DeShaun Watson. I took Juju at 2.01, though I pondered both Mahomes and Watson in that slot. Depending on who you ask, JuJu could be ranked as high as 7th and low as 27th, but I wasn’t willing to wait any longer.

2.02 – Chris Godwin

Bob: He was my best player available (#8 on my board) and even though I already took Howard (and have Martin) I’m going for it.  As a Michigan and Rutgers fan, it kills me but I loved watching him play this year. Godwin makes spectacular high point catches and should see lesser coverage with all the other weapons. I really wanted Davis at 1.02 but figured Godwin would be my backup at 2.02.

2.03 – Evan Engram

Bernard Faller: My top fantasy TE in the class but is really just a pass catcher.  Unlike most TEs, his maturity as a receiver makes him ready to play from day one.  The ridiculous combination of size, speed, and athleticism is virtually unmatched by any receiver in this class.

2.04 – David Njoku

Stephen Wendell: Miami must not have had a lot of favorable lines this year because I spent no time watching any Miami football, but I tend to only watch college football where I have some action, but that tends to be most games, so I am not sure how I missed him. That said, even if I had watched him, my opinion of rookies means nothing and Bob Cowper’s means everything to me… the guy is an animal, a Matt Waldman in the making. And he has Njoku ranked 12…his BPA is Zay Jones who I like as well, but not a perfect situation for him in Buffalo and he kind of feels like a guy that may be pretty great (if he becomes great) at the end of his rookie deal when he is likely a FA already in our league. Additionally, someone has to catch some passes for the Browns this year, whether it is Osweiler or Kizer (or Jimmy G??) throwing them, so why not a stud TE to grab a few and pick up a few red zone scores (he grabbed 8 last year). Lastly, a severe position of need for me, especially if Fleener does not play better in NO this season.

*TRADE ALERT*

Luke Trades: Josh Gordon, 2019 1st

Kyle Trades: Blake Bortles, Laquon Treadwell

*TRADE ALERT*

Papson Trades: 2018 1st

Kyle Trades: 2.05

2.05 – Patrick Mahomes

Papson: As the round progressed, I got a little anxious about the fact that Mahomes and Watson might both be gone by 2.09, and I then decided I wanted to find a way to get both. I tried desperately to acquire 2.06 and 2.08 from Rookie Draft aficionado Bob Cowper but quickly realized that would be futile. I instead moved up to 2.05, where I selected Mahomes because in Andy I trust.

2.06 – Mitchell Trubisky

Bob: I wanted Mahomes and should have pulled the trigger to move to 2.05.  Guess I did the reverse-Bears.  I think the QBs are being undervalued for our superflex league so I still wanted to go for one and took Trubisky.  I hope he doesn’t start in the NFL this season because he’s not ready (neither is Mahomes but I think his ceiling is higher). I went for a similar guy last year in Jared Goff and while that may not work out, hoarding young QBs on cheap contracts can only end up hitting sooner or later.

*TRADE ALERT*

Papson Trades: 2.09, Jerrick McKinnon

Goody Trades: 2.07, Sterling Shepard

2.07 – DeShaun Watson

Papson: I made some nifty moves to swap 2.09 & 2.07 so that I could also grab Watson and complete my triumvirate.

2.08 – Zay Jones

Bob: It wasn’t who I was targeting here since I figured he’d be gone. The Bills don’t trust Sammy Watkins so at worst he’s a year away from being the number one and in the meantime should have PPR value.

*TRADE ALERT*

Papson Trades: Kelvin Benjamin

Stephen Trades: 2018 2nd

*TRADE ALERT*

Goody Trades: Jerrick McKinnon

Kyle Trades: Josh Gordon

2.09 – DeShone Kizer

Goody: In short-SuperKizeme! For my squad heading into the rookie draft, my hope was to dump some salary and keep my picks intact as best as possible. After giving away Mark Ingram ($18m this year) before the draft, I thought that effort was done until Matt Papson offered to take one year of Sterling Shepard for $9.9m off my books to swap 2.07 for his 2.09, and I couldn’t pass up the chance to enter our auction with the most cap space in the league. I would have taken DeShaun Watson at 2.07, but am happy I get to take a super-cheap flyer on DeShone Kizer. As a Cleveland Browns fan, I liked the pick and think there is some time for Kizer to grow. The physical tools are there and in this superflex league if Kizer becomes a star that will be incredibly valuable to me. So in the end, guys like Samaje Perine and Cooper Kupp move to the background and Kizer has me dreaming of a QB from my youth with a similar sounding name-Kosar (as in Bernie). #Believeland

*TRADE ALERT*

Papson Trades: Sterling Shepard, Michael Floyd, 2018 1st

Bernard Trades: 2.10

2.10 – Curtis Samuel

Papson: I ditched some players’ salaries and a final 2018 1st to get to 2.10 to select Mr. Irrelevant, Curtis Samuel.

*TRADE ALERT*

Luke Trades: Mike Williams, 2018 1st

Bernard Trades: Tyrod Taylor, 2018 1st

2017 Writer’s League Rookie Draft Results

1.01 – Corey Davis – Luke 2.01 – Juju Smith-Schuster – Papson (thru Luke)
1.02 – Leonard Fournette – Bob 2.02 – Chris Godwin – Bob
1.03 – Christian McCaffrey – Jaron 2.03 – Evan Engram – Bernard
1.04 – Joe Mixon – Papson 2.04 – David Njoku – Stephen
1.05 – Dalvin Cook – Nick 2.05 – Patrick Mahomes – Papson (thru Kyle)
1.06 – Mike Williams – Bernard (thru Luke, thru Papson) 2.06 – Mitchell Trubisky – Bob (thru Luke)
1.07 – O.J. Howard – Bob 2.07 – DeShaun Watson – Papson (thru Goody)
1.08 – Kareem Hunt – Goody 2.08 – Zay Jones – Bob (thru Luke)
1.09 – Alvin Kamara – Jaron 2.09 – DeShone Kizer – Goody (thru Papson thru Luke)
1.10 – John Ross – Kyle 2.10 – Curtis Samuel – Papson (thru Bernard)

FA Expectancy: Latavius Murray

Updated: July 23rd 2017

Throughout the offseason, I will be preparing a collection of articles that will focus on free agents and trade candidates. The articles will discuss the player in question, and what the move does to their value, as well as what their landing spot means for their new and old teams.

Latavius Murray – RB, Minnesota Vikings

It is hard to find anyone that the fantasy community is more down on than Latavius Murray in 2017. After letting Adrian Peterson walk the Vikings signed Murray to a 3 year/ $15million deal to theoretically lead their backfield on the first two downs. Many question what Murray can really offer his new team as he was never able to carry the full workload in Oakland in 2016. His move from a top 5 rated Raiders offensive line to a bottom 5 rated Vikings doesn’t really help his cause either. But he is technically the lead back (as of writing this article before the NFL Draft) so he should get a fair share of the touches. Is he a sneaky buy-low candidate?

Tyler Buecher of NumberFire looked at how penalties, specifically pass interference calls, can affect the season end results for fantasy numbers and whether some players were negatively and positively affected because of them. His results can be found here. For running backs, these were the players that received the most benefits from the calls.

Player

1st-and-Goal Penalty TDs

Total TDs

Fantasy Finish

LeGarrette Blount

5

18

RB9

Latavius Murray

4

12

RB13

Lamar Miller

3

6

RB20

Melvin Gordon

3

12

RB7

Devonta Freeman

2

13

RB6

Doug Martin

2

3

RB54

Ezekiel Elliott

2

16

RB2

Matt Asiata

2

6

RB37

 

Murray benefited the second most from pass interferences calls with four of his twelve rushing touchdowns coming from an interference call leading to 1st and goal from the 1-yard line. Since we know that touchdowns fluctuate season-to-season it wouldn’t be surprising to see a decline in his totals, especially with a team that will have less frequent trips inside the red zone. Ironically, Matt Asiata is also on this list which suggests that the Vikings are indeed a candidate for goal line touchdowns to regress next season.

So what does this mean for Vikings players?

The short answer is not much. Murray may or may not be the bruiser back heading into 2017 with Jerrick McKinnon continuing his role as the change-of-pace and satellite receiving back. I expect the Vikings to take a running back in the draft to try and groom into their featured runner once they move on from Murray. If there are any Bishop Sankey truthers still left out there this might be his last opportunity to be a usable NFL running back in case Murray falters or more likely gets injured. In really deep leagues Sankey could be a dart throw that pays off for a couple of games if he shows that he can ward off any potential incoming rookies should Murray be absent from the lineup.

I guess you could call this an upgrade for Sam Bradford who had zero options for handing the ball off last season. It’s unlikely that any coordinator will fear the run game though so the Vikings should expect aggressive blitzes and plenty of nickel and dime packages to cover the receivers and tight end. Murray’s presence could have a negative impact on the receivers scoring opportunities inside the 10 yard line as there were nine passing touchdowns that came within 10 yards of the end zone in 2016 (4 to Kyle Rudolph, and 1 each to McKinnon, Stefon Diggs, Jarius Wright, Cordarrelle Patterson and Adam Thielen).

So what is Murray’s Value?

As previously stated the Murray stock is at an all-time low so if you were ever going to get in cheap now is the time. He’s been moved around in my home league four times already this offseason and I have had several other offers in other leagues with him as a throw in. As Bernard Faller pointed out in his article, “Read the Fine Print” while Murray’s contract may be for 3 years it really works out to be a 1 year deal with additional team option years added on. He essential could be cut at the start of next season and save the Vikings $5.1million in cap space. This is why I expect the team to invest and develop a running back from this loaded class to then hand him the keys in 2018.

If Murray is available in your auction you should be able to get him dirt cheap as a 1-year rental player that could be used for decent matchups. Otherwise, unless Murray is on a steal of contract I wouldn’t value him for more than a third round pick. There are too many lottery ticket running backs that could increase their value by 2018 in the second or third round to settle for a low floor RB2/3 like Murray.

So what does this mean for the Raiders?

The Raiders have been linked to bringing the corpse of Marshawn Lynch back for weeks now and while playing behind that offensive line would give him some value I just don’t see it being worth it for real or fantasy purposes. Bringing in fresh legs from the draft would be the best option for the team and any player they select will see his rankings shoot up the rookie ADP rankings. DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard were nice waiver wire additions last year and they still hold value right now especially if a back isn’t selected by the end of day 2. However, Washington wasn’t a high selection either (5th Round) and Richard was an UDFA so the Raiders do not owe them anything for playing time. They are both savvy players to watch for in your auctions but don’t get carried away in a bidding war for mediocrity.


Make sure to continue to read more Free Agency Expectancy articles throughout the offseason to be prepared for your summer Auctions. Have a player that you want me to evaluate? Look for my polls to cast your vote or send me a message on Twitter @naandrews19.

FA Expectancy: Brandin Cooks

Updated: July 16th 2017

Throughout the offseason, I will be preparing a collection of articles that will focus on free agents and trade candidates. The articles will discuss the player in question, and what the move does to their value, as well as what their landing spot means for their new and old teams.

Brandin Cooks – WR, New England Patriots

The talk so far of free agency didn’t come from a free agent but rather a trade that sent Brandin Cooks from the New Orleans Saints to the New England Patriots. Many people have been touting this as the greatest move the Pats have made since acquiring Randy Moss in 2007. Fantasy fanatics need little reminder of the 23 touchdowns Moss put up in his first year with the team. But should owners expect the same level of production from Cooks in 2017 and beyond?

Those who speak against Cooks have quickly pointed out that he played eight of his games in the dome with New Orleans along with three more games in Tampa, Charlotte, and Atlanta each of the last three seasons. The AFC East, save for sunny Miami, is not a forgiving environment to play in weather wise and people question how Cooks’ blazing speed will translate into the cold and snowy region of Foxborough. Even Michael Fabiano posted a tweet showcasing the split between Cooks’ games indoors and out over the last two seasons.

Fabs Tweet

This is a classic case of throwing out a fact without much context. Yes, the points per game are lower but there’s no understanding as to who the opponents were or who Cooks was matched up against. Cooks actually average more catches outdoors based on this infographic. Needless to say, people are asking the wrong questions about what Cooks means to the Patriots.

So what does Cooks mean to Patriot players?

The Patriots needed a player who could stretch the defense on the outside away from Edelman in the slot and running backs out of the backfield. Having said that I don’t see him being a DeSean Jackson, lid popping, type receiver in the scheme on a frequent basis. Go routes will always be a part of his route tree but I see Josh McDaniels moving him around more to be the intermediate/crossing route receiver; especially on 2nd and mid or 3rd and short downs to pull the safeties away from the middle of the field opening up the underneath for other receivers and backs. Other than Gronk this definitely deflates the number of targets available for other pass catchers. I don’t see Edelman being forgotten this year and he should still put up low WR2/high WR3 points but he could be let go after this season similar to his predecessor Wes Welker. The big hit goes to Malcolm Mitchell owners who are disappointed that they didn’t get a chance to see what he could produce in his second year. Barring a long injury next season to one of the other receivers it will be hard to have Mitchell be anything more than a bye week/flex play.

So what is Cooks’ value?

As painful as it would sound based on what he produced for fantasy purposes last year I see Cooks being in 2017 a slightly better upgrade at what Hogan was in 2016, but with 4.3 speed. The Patriots and specifically Bill Belichick don’t care about your fantasy teams and will use whatever players they think will help them one game at a time. What that means is that there will be games where Cooks will push double digit catch and have multiple touchdowns and then he will be less than stellar for the next two games. The one difference that will save Cooks owners will be that based on the capital the Patriots invested in him his floor will be higher than Hogan’s was on a week-to-week basis with the hope that he replaces Edelman after 2017. If he’s on a decent contract for multiple seasons and is available for a mid-1st or a package for lower picks and players he would be an interesting buy.

So what does it mean for Saints players?

One person leaves so that means more food at the buffet for the rest right? Not exactly. While Cooks did account for 117 targets last season Michael Thomas was actually targeted more with 121 (even Willie Snead got 104). While it is possible that Thomas pushes into the Mike Evans, Odell Beckham and Antonio Brown range of 180 targets it’s more likely that Thomas has a mild increase in 2017 while a new receiver is integrated into the offense with 70-80 targets. Based on this expectation it is probably not worth trying to acquire Thomas who will be at his peak price right now. Instead, scribble in your auction journals to try and acquire Willie Snead on a savvy 2 or 3-year deal. He’s already an early sleeper to push WR2 numbers next season and should have a good couple of years left with Drew Brees. I was lucky to grab Snead in a few of my leagues last year on multi-year deals that would likely cost double this season. As well, keep an eye on any receiver that is brought in either late in free agency or through the draft. Drew Brees loves to spread the ball around and any day two or three drafted receivers that the Saints add could be fed the 70-80 targets previously mentioned. That would be tremendous opportunity value for a player that could be a 3rd round rookie pick this season.


Make sure to continue to read more Free Agency Expectancy articles throughout the offseason to be prepared for your summer Auctions. Have a player that you want me to evaluate? Send me a message on Twitter @naandrews19.

Read the Fine Print

Updated: July 16th 2017

The NFL recently finished the first phase of free agency and with it came large contract dollars that make agents, and the players they represent, feel good about the deals that were doled out. And like other years, the initial contract numbers presented to the public largely distort the actual contract implications.  This article takes a more in-depth look into a few selected multi-year contracts of offensive players, examining short and long term NFL impacts plus consequences for RSO leagues.

Mike Glennon, QB, Chicago Bears

Published Contract: 3 years / $45 Million, $18.5M guaranteed

Real Contract: 1 year with two team option years

What it means: The contract likely paid Glennon more than was warranted or necessary for his services.  However, the Bears commit to the former Buccaneer for only one year with just $4.5 million owed after 2017.  Chicago’s overpay is tempered by cheap contract years in 2017 ($16M) and 2018 ($15M) with cap hits which project toward the low end of the spectrum for non-rookie deal starting quarterbacks if Glennon proves to be a good quarterback for the Bears. The one-year commitment also does not prevent the Bears using a high draft pick on a quarterback this season.

RSO league consequences: You should only consider Glennon useful in 2QB/Superflex leagues as a low-end starter or bye week/injury reserve.  There is very little upside on a Chicago team with lots of unknowns at receiver, who just lost its top receiving threat, Alshon Jeffery, to the Eagles, and figures to be run-heavy in the near future led by a strong offensive line and rookie-sensation Jordan Howard.  Glennon is not a player I would invest in for the long haul at the moment.  We will have more information about the Chicago’s future quarterback plan following the NFL draft.

Tyrod Taylor, QB, Buffalo Bills

Published Contract: 2 years / $30.5 Million, $15.5M guaranteed

Real Contract: 1 year with one team option year

What it means: Taylor remains in Buffalo on another team-friendly contract.  This contract and teams’ lack of interest in Colin Kaepernick (although there are other issues at play for Kaepernick) says a lot about the market for “running” quarterbacks with limited passing skills.  This situation could go in a lot of directions in 2018 depending on how he meshes with the new coaching staff.  The contract contains $8.6M in dead cap after 2017 (of which $5.6M is locked in through 3 voided years at the end of contract).  Taylor’s $18M cap hit is not outrageous if he is retained in 2018.

RSO league consequences: Taylor is a great one year option for those looking to go cheaper at quarterback. He does not have the passing skills to challenge the top performers but his rushing abilities give him a nice weekly floor which resulted in QB1 numbers on a PPG basis for 2015 and 2016.  Those running skills also help open lanes on the ground for LeSean McCoy and the rest of the Bills rushing attack.  The lack of pocket passing traits, on the other hand, severely limits Buffalo receivers’ upside including Sammy Watkins.  While I like Taylor in 2017, I am not looking for a longer contract.  There was not much of a market for Taylor during pre-free agency talks which resulting in Taylor taking a reduced contract to stay in Buffalo.  The Bills have now passed on the chance to commit to Taylor twice.  If teams will not commit, neither should you.

DeSean Jackson, WR, Tampa Bay Bucaneers

Published Contract: 3 years / $33.5 Million, $18.5M guaranteed

Real Contract: 2 years with one team option year

What it means: Jackson solves massive offensive speed issues in the receiver group for Tampa Bay.  He can help a young Jameis Winston who enjoys throwing the football deep but has not been particularly effective at it.  Jackson creates far more separation than other receivers Winston throws to however.  The Bucs could conceivably cut Jackson in year two, but that option is highly unlikely with only $3.5 Million out of $11M not guaranteed and probably occurs only in the case of catastrophic injury or other major issue.  This is one of my favorite deals so far in free agency filling a major team need with reasonable contract terms.

RSO league consequences: Jackson remains a high-volatile WR3 in Tampa Bay, although one with higher upside than many receivers in this range.  Tampa Bay’s passing targets concentrated heavily on Mike Evans in 2016. The next two targets, Cameron Brate and Adam Humphries, together totaled fewer targets than Evans alone.  With only Brate and Humphries challenging for secondary targets to Evans, Jackson could easily see more targets than in his time in Washington.  I am very comfortable giving Jackson a 2 or 3 year deal as his weekly volatility generally results in cheaper RSO contracts.

Robert Woods, WR, Los Angeles Rams

Published Contract: 5 years / $34 Million, $15M guaranteed

Real Contract: 1 year with four team option years

What it means: This contract is a great example of how misleading the generic contract terms can be.  The Rams are only locked in for the first season of the five year contract.  Even the guarantees are not guaranteed.  $8M of the $15M in guarantees lock in for injury only.  Woods will be a year to year rental for Los Angeles.

RSO league consequences: Nothing to see here.  Woods theoretically slots in as a starting receiver for Sean McVay’s offense.  This is a Rams team that likely adds major receiving weapons over the next couple of years, however.  Woods could garner enough targets in 2017 to be useful in deeper leagues but should not be considered as more than a depth player on a one year contract.

Latavius Murray, RB, Minnesota Vikings

Published Contract: 3 years / $15 Million, $8.55M guaranteed

Real Contract: 1 year with two team option years

What it means: Oh how the mighty have fallen.  The fact that this is the premier contract given to a running back in free agency says all you need to know about the running back market.  Former heavyweights at the position including Adrian Peterson, Jamaal Charles, and Eddie Lacy have gathered only marginal interest (Editor’s Note: Lacy signed a 1-year deal with Seattle that guaranties him $2.865M and could earn him up to $5.55M depending on his performance and his weight).  A number of factors including a deep running back draft class plus analytics research detailing the minimal effect of the run game generally and the running back specifically have suppressed the demand for running backs.  Only $2.7M of Murray’s contract is fully guaranteed.  The cap number balloons from a small sub-$3M number in 2017 to well over $6M in 2018 with only $1.2M in dead money left.  The contract is tailor-made for Murray’s release or contract restructure in 2018.

RSO league consequences: Murray moves in as the top back in Minnesota, splitting time with incumbent Jerick McKinnon.  This is likely more of a timeshare rather than players with separate, strict roles in the offense.  McKinnon is competent catching flares and screens out of the backfield but is not a particularly good receiver or route runner.  Murray is better in pass protection and likely takes most goal line work based on Minnesota’s previous use of the departed Matt Asiata.  The offensive line was a mess in 2016, but Minnesota spent a lot of money shoring up the position in free agency.  The Vikings are also prime candidates to add offensive line talent in the draft.  Minnesota could also look at running back in the draft.  Overall, consider Murray a low upside borderline RB2/3 in RSO leagues.  Murray has not demonstrated special talent so far in the league and given his NFL contract, I would not sign Murray to more than a 1-year RSO contract.

*Contract details were taken from Spotrac.


Bio: Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

2017 Free Agency Preview

Updated: July 16th 2017

Welcome to 2017! Hopefully, 2016 was a success in regards to your fantasy teams. We are less than one week away from the start of the NFL Combine which officially starts the NFL offseason activities. While many people will have their attention focused on the incoming rookies, rightfully so, this will also offer the first major opportunity for the rumor mill to start for players set to hit free agency on March 9th. We will have to wait and see which players are ultimately tagged by their team but this could be a great year for dynasty owners that like to take risks on relocating free agents. Along with these free agents, there may be a star-studded group of players that are cut. Once the draft comes around there should be a large number of big names that will be changing uniforms.

To prepare you, the owners of RSO, for the whirlwind that is NFL free agency I’ve gone to the liberty of making a list of the most fantasy relevant players that are either free agents or could be moving teams next season.

QB RB WR TE
Colin Kaepernick (Cut) Adrian Peterson (Cut) Adam Thielen (RFA) Cameron Brate (ERFA)
Jay Cutler Alfred Morris (Cut) Alshon Jeffery Gavin Escobar
Jimmy Garoppolo (Trade) Andre Ellington Brandon Marshall (Cut) Jack Doyle
Josh McCowan (Cut) Benny Cunningham Brian Quick Jared Cook
Kirk Cousins Chris Thompson (RFA) Cordarrelle Patterson Jermaine Gresham
Mike Glennon Christine Michael Danny Amendola (Cut) Jordan Cameron
 Tony Romo (Cut) Danny Woodhead DeSean Jackson Julius Thomas (Trade)
Tyrod Taylor (Cut) Darren McFadden Eddie Royal (Cut) Lance Kendricks (Cut)
DeAngelo Williams Eric Decker (Cut) Larry Donnell
  Doug Martin (Cut) Kamar Aiken Luke Willson
  Eddie Lacy Kendall Wright Martellus Bennett
  Isaiah Crowell (RFA) Kenny Britt Ryan Griffin
Jamaal Charles (Cut) Kenny Stills Vernon Davis
  James Stark (Cut) Markus Wheaton
Jonathan Stewart (Cut) Marquess Wilson
Latavius Murray Michael Floyd
  LeSean McCoy (Cut/Trade) Pierre Garcon
  LeGarrette Blount Robert Woods
Le’Veon Bell Taylor Gabriel (RFA)
  Mike Gillislee (RFA) Terrance Williams
Rashad Jennings (Cut) Terrelle Pryor
Rex Burkhead Willie Snead (ERFA)
Ryan Mathews (Cut) Victor Cruz (Cut)
Terrance West (RFA)
 

Coaches

 

New

 

Former

Anthony Lynn Chargers (HC) Bills (OC/HC)
Chris Ballard Colts (GM) Chiefs
Doug Marrone Jaguars (HC) Jaguars (OC)
Kyle Shannahan 49ers (HC) Falcons (OC)
Mike McCoy Broncos (OC) Chargers (HC)
Sean McDermitt Bills (HC) Panthers (DC)
Sean McVay Rams (HC) Redskins (OC)

 

Throughout the offseason I will be working on a collection of articles focusing on some of these players as they sign new deals (either with a new team or their current team) and the impact they will they have as well as what this means for the players around them. I will also look at a couple of coaching and management changes that you should be aware of and what it means for your players that aren’t moving.

In the meantime make sure to buy-in to your leagues and start those trade conversations again with other owners. The best way to prepare for free agency is to have a list of what other owners may be looking for before your rookie draft. As players begin to sign with new teams having an open communication with your league mates will put you atop their list of first contacts when they want to start trading.

If you want to start a conversation about what any player’s impact could be if they move to a new team reach out to me on Twitter @naandrews19.

Training Camp 2015 Edition

Updated: August 3rd 2015

nfl-vets-really-hate-training-camp-images-2015-600x439

It’s hard to believe it, but training camp is upon us. While some of you may have already had your Reality Sports Online rookie drafts, a ton of offseason trades, or both, others may just be picking up serious activity. Either way, we all collectively can’t wait to watch the Houston Texans on Hard Knocks and for kickoff in September. Before that happens, though, there are some major storylines that will unfold in training camp that will help us determine how to tackle our Free Agency Auctions. I’ll skip over Russell Wilson’s contract signing for the most part and similar storylines. Basically the upshot with Wilson is this-now that it is reported he is in Seattle another 4 years, he’ll command big money in leagues where rushing is rewarded heavily and where turnovers are punished significantly (like my main league where turnovers are a negative 5 fantasy points). Moving on, so let’s jump into other topics now.

The Dallas Cowboys Running Back Situation

Demarco Murray made it look easy last season in racking up 1,845 rushing yards and 13 touchdowns and a career-high 57 receptions behind Pro Football Focus’ top-ranked offensive line. Then the Cowboys decided that Murray was expendable and he went to their division rival Philadelphia Eagles. While many in fantasy circles are holding Joseph Randle in the highest regard based on being the best of a bunch of middling options, only training camp will tell whether Randle can be the bell-cow that Murray was behind that beastly O-Line. Those who want to extrapolate his 6.7 yards per carry on 51 totes for 343 yards and three touchdowns could be left holding the bag on an inflated Reality Sports Online contract if they aren’t careful, especially in PPR leagues. Randle only had 4 catches for 23 yards and offensive coordinator Scott Linehan has made a living turning running backs like Moe Williams into serious PPR threats, which seems to indicate that Randle’s ceiling is lower than you’d think. Also take into account that Randle broke more than 10 runs over 10 yards (mostly in games the Cowboys were beating their opponents handily) and had some police blotter last season and you’ll gladly let someone else speculate on him. If you have to have him, keep him under $8.0 million a year annually and avoid a 3-4 year deal at all costs.

However, Randle’s best competition may not even be on the roster yet, especially if the team gives someone like Ray RiceAhmad Bradshaw, or even Chris Johnson (just a saw a rumor that he’s in contact with the team) a chance at winning the job. Based on the injury history of Darren McFadden, your best bet on capitalizing on the high-octane Cowboys offense in the backfield is Lance Dunbar. I know, I know you say, Goodwin you were high on him last year and I listened to you and now am stuck with Dunbar for another two years. Well, your patience may be rewarded this year. It isn’t hard to envision a Darren Sproles type role for Dunbar this year, especially in the passing game . I wouldn’t be betting much on him-a one year deal (Dunbar’s a free agent in 2016) at around $2.0 million feels right.

The Cheap Quarterback Who Will Produce Is…

Well, in terms of guys who may be available who aren’t on multi-year deals, you’ll probably be starting with choosing among the QB Class of 2004-Eli Manning (1.2 years, $2.4 million average), Philip Rivers (1.6 years, $4.4 million average), and Ben Roethlisberger (1.4 year, $2.6 million average). All three play in offenses that are ramping up their weapons and are significant bargains. Keep in mind if most of your league has the quarterback position taken care of, don’t bid against yourself. I personally like Eli the most based on his star wideout Odell Beckham Jr.  and getting Shane Vereen as a legitimate pass catching option out of the backfield, along with the hopeful return of Victor Cruz. Considering he’s in a division with some of the shakiest secondaries in the league, assume Eli will air it out and that he’s a bargain.

If you’re looking for someone not on this list, Ryan Tannehill (1.6 years, $2.2m million average) is on the younger side and someone you may be more willing to sign long-term. His receiving corps had a complete makeover in the 2015 offseason and draft as I alluded to in Marketwatch 2015: Stock Up/Down and the Dolphins signal-caller still remains under the radar as the signal-caller in Bill Lazor’s offense.

The Player Coming Out of Nowhere This Year

Reality Sports Online is every bit the developmental league, especially if your rookie draft goes deeper than two rounds. So players like Jeff Janis may not be under-the-radar. Others may have fallen off your map, but still have a semblance of an opportunity if things go right. I’m not going to pick one guy who may be the guy who comes out of nowhere and becomes the next Marvin Jones from 2013 but definitely look at the requisite prototype for players who can put up stats for you. A few people worth the late-auction flyer (especially if you have a multi-year contract to use late on the cheap) include Aaron Dobson (he’s reportedly finally healthy from various foot injuries and has the frame and speed to be the #3 WR on the Patriots), Marlon BrownTheo Riddick (notice the third down back theme in this article),and Leonard Hankerson are my biggest take a flyer guys. Heck, even Jones himself can be the next Jones (again) if he returns successfully from an injury.

The Tight End Battle in Denver

Peyton Manning has an excellent track record in turning tight ends into touchdown catching machines. Julius Thomas certainly benefitted from this, as did some of Manning’s ex-Colts teammates. The question entering training camp is whether free-agent signing Owen Daniels or young upstart Virgil Green will be the tight end apple of Peyton’s eye. While Green was the recipient of a nice 3 year, $8.4 million contract for his past accolades as a blocker, the team envisioned some upside in the passing game based on Green’s athleticism when the re-inked him. The 6’5, 255 lb Green is a specimen, but beware his 23 career catches, especially with Daniels in town. Daniels was fairly productive and has followed head coach Gary Kubiak twice now (first to Baltimore last season) and now to Denver. Based on his track record, look for Daniels to be the one finding the end zone at least six times, assuming he stays healthy. However, take note of Green’s potential upside and if you can get him on a good deal, take advantage because Green’s been putting in work at Duke with Manning and will be on the field plenty based on his blocking ability on a team that is said to be more run-oriented this year.

The Next Randy Moss?

Dorial Green-Beckham is certainly one of the most polarizing players in your rookie draft. He has boatloads of talent and the size and speed that offensive coordinators salivate over, even if he’s not the best route runner. He was compared to Randy Moss several times in articles such as this one this offseason and much like Moss, he comes into his rookie season with a checkered past and a desire to prove the teams that passed him over wrong.

With an average draft position of the 10.5th pick in the first round of RSO rookie drafts, Green-Beckham represents significant upside and of course downside based on his character. One has to think that early on Green-Beckham will be on his best behavior and quarterback Marcus Mariota will be a positive influence on the wideout as well.

Stay tuned to news out of training camp on how Green-Beckham is coming along from a route running perspective and that he’s overcome his mini-camp hamstring injury. Early word is that the team doesn’t want to “over-rep” him in training camp.

Defense on the Rise in Cleveland

As someone born in Cleveland, it is hard to get too excited about anything Browns related. However, the team invested heavily on the defense in the draft by adding run-stuffer Danny Shelton in the first round and pass-rusher extraordinaire in Nate Orchard, who led the NCAA’s in sacks per game in 2015. Taking into account a very strong secondary already, the team should improve significantly from the worst ranked rush defense last season in a division where teams love to run the rock. While the weak offense may keep putting the defense on the field, expect plenty of impact fantasy plays from Joe Haden and company this season from a fantasy perspective.

The Rookie Most Likely Not to Produce in 2015

New Chicago Bears coach John Fox is notorious for bringing rookie wide receivers along slowly. First round pick Kevin White is coming off RSO draft boards around the 4th pick in the rookie draft. However, when you take into account Cody Latimer’s four-catch 2014 for Fox’s Broncos last season and the fact that in interviews Fox couldn’t even recall whether a rookie wideout has ever started for him, you have to figure that even if White does start, he will be brought along slowly.  It certainly doesn’t help matters than White’s shin injury has landed him on the PUP list for the start of training camp.

Considering that one of the league’s most targeted wide receivers, Alshon Jeffery, starts on one side and that quarterback Jay Cutler typically only has eyes for one or two receivers, the number of targets available for White after Jeffery, Matt Forte, Martellus Bennett and even slot receiver Eddie Royal get theirs may amount to crumbs, not a meal.

As a result, my 2015 outlook on White is fairly guarded, especially considering the high draft capital required to nab him in your drafts.

I Put In Work, And Watch My Status Escalate

Obviously last year’s rookie crop of wide receivers was one of the best in NFL history from a production standpoint. That even takes into account the injury to Brandin Cooks and limited production in a non-quarterback friendly environment for Sammy Watkins. That doesn’t mean that the rookie stars from last season are resting on their laurels. Mike Evans has been working in the offseason on his craft with the aforementioned Moss. Evans, who had 12 touchdowns and 1,051 receiving yards as the Z-Receiver with a limited route tree last season, now moves to the X receiver under new offensive guru Dirk Koetter, who groomed Julio Jones into one of the league’s best. The prospect of the kid gloves coming off of Evans, even with a rookie quarterback, is super enticing, especially since he’s still working out with Moss.

From the third year receiver crop and now that all-time leading Houston Texans wide receiver Andre Johnson is playing for the division rival Colts, DeAndre Hopkins figures to be the third-year receiver who will fully emerge into an NFL superstar.

Who Starts At Quarterback in Philly?

In one of the more intriguing battles (especially to RSO founders Matt Papson and Stephen Wendell), Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles have an interesting quarterback competition. The team paid for a study to see how likely Sam Bradford was to re-injure himself and concluded those chances were low and traded Nick Foles for him. However, last year’s starter at the end of the season, Mark Sanchez, was fairly productive and the team invested a first rounder in rookie wideout Nelson Agholor, who has received rave reviews and figures to start right away, to replace the departed Jeremy Maclin. The team also reinvented their running game with Murray and Ryan Mathews.

It’ll be interesting to see who will win the quarterback battle here, because whoever does has immediately value and when it comes to Reality Sports Online, you’re all about value.

That’ll do it for now and I hope you enjoy reading these as much as I enjoy writing these articles. Feel free to contact me with any questions/feedback you may have on Twitter at @mattgoody2.