NCAA Championship Game Preview

bama-clemson-picks

Back in 2009 I wrote a preview for every college football bowl game.  It was a lot of work and an undertaking that I regretted somewhere between the Humanitarian Bowl and the Insight Bowl.  I went back and re-read some of those previews this weekend though and found them very interesting.  Now that I have two full years of RSO under my belt, I couldn’t help but think in terms of how all of the mentioned players fared in the NFL and whether or not I would have risked a rookie draft pick on them.  Of all the previews I re-read, the Sun Bowl between Stanford and Oklahoma was my favorite.  It was chock full of NFL talent: Andrew Luck, Sam Bradford, Landry Jones, Demarco Murray, Gerald McCoy and Toby Gerhart.  A common refrain I hear from fellow dynasty owners is that it’s tough to keep up with the college season and all of the teams – I think the bowl season is a perfect way to get some exposure and start researching for your rookie draft.  So, I decided we should take a look at this year’s championship game and see if there are any lessons that can be learned for RSO users.

Alabama

What is there left to say about Alabama?  They are 40-3 over the last three season featuring three different quarterbacks: that is impressive.  Current QB Jalen Hurts is the most athletic of those three signal callers (Jake Coker and Blake Sims being the other two) but he’s just a true freshman so he isn’t really on the radar for RSO users.  His numbers are impressive though: 65% completion percentage, 21 passing TDs, 891 yards rushing and 12 rushing TDs.  What’s most important for our purposes is that he’s certainly capable of keep the chains moving and can distribute the ball well to the backs and receivers.

Those backs and receivers are all young too – most being sophomores.  Even though they may not be draft eligible yet, their stock will only continue to rise so take note now.  RBs Damien Harris and Bo Scarborough combine for a fearsome one-two punch.  Harris averaged 7.2 yards per carry over 141 carries (1,013 yards) but scored just two TDs.  Scarborough is a patient, bruising runner and the touchdown vulture, scoring nine in 2016.  He averaged 6.6 yards per carry for 719 total yards.  Neither tailback is featured heavily in the passing game though, just 15 total receptions, mostly from Harris.  Scarborough reminds me more of TJ Yeldon than Derrick Henry who the semi-final game commentators were comparing him too.  He’s tall for a RB at 6’2″ but does not shy away from contact – in fact he initiates contact and bounces off.  Harris didn’t really impress me in my limited time watching the Tide this year, I think Scarborough will be the better pro when he’s eligible.

Junior Ardarius Stewart was the leading WR in 2016 by yards (816 vs 740) but was out-caught by sophomore Calvin Ridley  (52 vs 66).  Ridley’s NFL prospects mostly go back to his true freshman season in 2015 where he put up a 89-1,045-7 stat line, including a huge game in the semi-final against Michigan State going for 8-138-2.  Ridley’s production fell off in 2016 because of Hurts’ run-first mentality but I don’t think that will actually hurt his NFL draft stock.  He draws comparisons to Amari Cooper but I think he could be even better than that.  Come this time next season, I fully expect Ridley to be a top ten pick.  He’s not a sexy name, but I am intrigued by Gehrig Dieter.  He was a graduate transfer from Bowling Green who joined Alabama for the 2016 season.  He only amassed 15 catches for 214 yards and 4 TDs but the fact that Nick Saban took him on for the season speaks louder than his on-field production.  In his junior season at Bowling Green he totaled 94-1,033-10.  If he went undrafted I would not be surprised, but I think he’s the kind of guy who emerges in the preseason, finds his way into the lineup and turns out to be a PPR factor in future seasons (my mind went to Quincy Enunwa and Adam Thielen, similar size and potential career arc).  TE OJ Howard won’t get any looks early in your RSO rookie draft but he is a big body (6’6″ and 235lb) with big play ability; if he lands with the right team he could be a sneaky third round pick or free agent stash.  If Howard’s name sounds familiar it’s because he torched Clemson last year in the championship game: 5 receptions, 208 yards and 2 TDs.

For those of you playing in IDP leagues, you typically can’t go wrong drafting a first- or second-round Alabama player.  According to NFLDraftScout.com’s most recent mock drafts, Alabama could have as many as four defensive players selected in the first twelve picks: Jonathan Allen, Marlon Humphrey, Reuben Foster and Tim Williams.  LB Reuben Foster and DE Jonathan Allen will likely be impact starters in 2017 for their NFL teams and maybe for your RSO team.  Foster is a high-volume tackler (103 total in 2016, 30 more than 2nd place on the team) who can also get to the quarterback (4 sacks in 2016).  Allen racked up 145 total tackles, 43.5 tackles for loss and 27 sacks over the last three seasons; he finished 7th in Heisman voting this year, the highest for a defensive lineman since Jadeveon Clowney in 2012.  He’s probably a “tweaner” in the NFL, somewhere between a DE and DT that could be a positive if he lands in the right place, or be his downfall if he ends up in the wrong system.

Clemson

Let’s get this out of the way at the top: I am not a fan of Deshaun Watson.  It’s nothing personal, by all accounts he is a great young man, but I just don’t want to put the fate of my RSO franchise in his hands.  There is no doubt that he is talented but in my opinion he makes too many mistakes.  Against Ohio State, Watson threw two INTs early in the game that could have made for a much different outcome if the Buckeyes were able to take advantage but the ensuing drives ended in a missed field goal and a punt.  Among 124 qualifying quarterbacks (who averaged 14 attempts per game), Watson threw the second most interceptions (17) in 2016; in 2015 he threw 13 for a total of 30 in the last two seasons.  For comparison, Dak Prescott, Paxton Lynch and Christian Hackenburg combined to throw just 15 INTs in 2015 before being drafted.  DynastyLeagueFootball.com has Watson as their rookie QB1 for 2017 but that’s more a result of the weak class than Watson’s pro possibility.

Junior RB Wayne Gallman is fun to watch and luckily for us it seems as if he will be entering the draft this offseason.  He’s a slasher of a running back who I feel would be at home in a zone-running scheme in the NFL even more so than he has been in Clemson’s read-option attack.  The more highlights I watch and research I do, the more I fall in love.  He’s big enough (6’1″, 215lb) to hold up over the course of the season and is a good enough receiver to stay on the field in some third down situations in the NFL.  Over the last two seasons, Gallman has combined for 2,940 yards from scrimmage and 30 TDs.  I think his RSO draft stock will be heavily influenced by his performance against Alabama in the championship game.  Honestly, I hope he struggles in that game so his stock stays idle and I have a chance to grab him in my home RSO league at 1.09 or 2.02.

As good as I believe Gallman is, he’s not the best pro prospect on his team.  That honor goes to junior WR Mike Williams.  Williams’s story is a good one.  He was injured early in the first game in 2015 after colliding with the goalpost support while catching a touchdown.  He fractured his neck and spent the rest of the season rehabbing so he could come back with a vengeance in 2016 and that’s exactly what he did.  Williams will probably be a top ten pick in this year’s NFL draft after an impressive 2016.  Williams hauled in 90 balls for 1,267 yards and 10 TDs.  As a sophomore back in 2014, he went 57-1,030-6 so he’s no one-hit wonder.  Depending on where you look, Williams is either listed at 6’3″ or 6’4″ but either way he’s tall enough to be an elite NFL receiver.  Williams will most definitely be the first WR drafted in RSO leagues this year, but he probably won’t be the only Clemson WR taken.  Junior WR Artavis Scott is a smaller possession receiver who has had at least 73 receptions in each of his three seasons with the Tigers.  Scott doesn’t have gaudy numbers that will drive his RSO draft stock but given the right offense, he could be worth a third round rookie pick.  Sophomore WR Deon Cain isn’t draft eligible this offseason, and may not be relevant this time next season to be honest, but he is a big play threat that could make the difference versus Alabama.  He averages 19.1 yards per catch, has 9 TDs this season and has a catch of 20+ yards in eight of fourteen games this season.  Senior TE Jordan Leggett is also a factor in the passing game, but might make more of an impact as a good blocker.  He’s been banged up lately and left the Ohio State game injured but I couldn’t find any updates online; assuming he is healthy heading into the offseason, he should be a top five rookie tight end, and much like OJ Howard, deserve some consideration.

On defense, Clemson is much less appealing from an IDP perspective than Alabama.  ILBs Ben Boulware and Kendall Joseph each had at least 100 tackles, 3.5 sacks, 9.5 tackles for loss and an interception.  I don’t believe either will really impact RSO owners this season; if Joseph returns for another season he could see his value increase.  DT Carlos Watkins had 10.5 sacks this season and could be a late first-round NFL selection.

TL:DR

Both teams are full of NFL-caliber talent so this is an important game for dynasty owners to watch.  The players that you should keep an eye on in the championship game are: Calvin Ridley, Wayne Gallman and Mike Williams.  In my opinion those are the three that will have the most impact on RSO leagues in years to come (don’t forget though that Ridley is not draft eligible until 2018).

My prediction?   Alabama wins easily because of their defense and ball control offense but the score ends up being close due to some late garbage time scoring.  Hurts has at least 15 carries; Ridley only gets a handful of targets but has at least one game changing play; Scarborough serves as the hammer to kill the clock at the end, totaling at least 150 yards; Watson throws at least two INTs; Gallman starts strong and has good per-touch numbers but is mostly forgotten about once Clemson falls behind.  Final score: Alabama 34, Clemson 24.


Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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