The Watch List: Week 12

Updated: November 16th 2017

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the storylines, players and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my weekly picks, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout the season as The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year. 

Storylines to Watch

  • Heisman Update:  Saquon Barkley is still my 1.01 fantasy draft pick but he’s no longer my Heisman favorite.  That honor now goes to Baker Mayfield.  Last week, I said that if Barkley’s 96 total yard game was the worst of his season that the award would be his.  Instead of coming out strong against Rutgers, he struggled and totaled just 55 yards (albeit with two scores).  Mayfield is just so on fire lately that it probably doesn’t matter what Barkley or Bryce Love do down the stretch.  Since his loss to Iowa State, Mayfield is averaging 384.8 yards per game and has 16 TDs to just 4 INTs.  The Heisman is his to lose.
  • CFP Playoff Picture:  The newest CFP rankings went about as expected.  Georgia and Notre Dame fell far after big losses to Top 10 opponents.  Meanwhile the teams that beat them, Miami and Auburn, jumped up a number of spots.  I was a bit surprised to see Wisconsin at #5.  Their strength of schedule is weak and is only slightly redeemed if they win out and beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.  Before this ranking, I did not think that an undefeated Wisconsin would rank over a one-loss Georgia but the committee disagreed.  I think this is their signal that if Wisconsin wins out, they are in, strength of schedule be damned (keep in mind one of Miami and Clemson have to lose and fall out of the Top 4).  Want to play around with the many permutations?  Check out FiveThirtyEight’s prediction module.
  • Why You Should Care About the FCS:  I won’t lie, I don’t usually pay attention to the FCS until their playoffs start.  I am a bit ahead of the game this season since I’ve done some research on a few FCS prospects but still, my FCS knowledge is basic at best.  That being said, the FCS deserves our attention for the rest of the season.  The FCS playoff is compelling television and there will be a number of 2018 NFL Draft prospects playing in those playoff games.  There are two fantasy relevant players who came out of the FCS this season: Rams WR Cooper Kupp and Bears RB Tarik Cohen.  A few other less familiar but potentially relevant names include: Patriots DE Derek Rivers, 49ers WR Kendrick Bourne, Cardinals WR Chad Williams and Broncos RB D’Angelo Henderson.  The first-round playoff games will be played on Saturday November 25th but you can safely ignore those games and wait for the second-round on December 2nd which will include the top eight teams who received byes.  The top predicted teams per HeroSports.com are James Madison, North Dakota State, Central Arkansas, Jacksonville State, South Dakota State, Wofford, Southern Utah, Western Illinois, Sam Houston State, North Carolina A&T and Grambling.  If you’re looking to keep up with FCS stats and information, quality sites are hard to find.  A few I have bookmarked include HeroSports.com and FCS.football.  FOX Sports also has game logs and season stats for all FCS players which is sometimes like finding a needle in a haystack.  If you want to find some of these games live, check the WatchESPN app which airs many live and keeps them available for replay for about a week.

Players to Watch (FCS Edition)

  • Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State:  If Dallas Goedert’s name sounds familiar, it’s probably because I had included him in my early 2018 positional rankings where he came in at TE7.  I watched two games of Goedert’s 2016 film, against TCU and North Dakota State, and was very impressed.  Goedert has good size at 6’4″ 260lbs and uses it to his advantage on contested passes across the middle of the field.  His route running does not appear to be the most sophisticated but he was able to get himself open on a number of drags and crosses; near the red zone his route running is less of a factor anyway as he can easily high point the ball over smaller defenders.  The film against TCU was only composed of his passing targets so I did not see any blocking but what I saw of him blocking against NDSU was very good.  He’s probably the best, or second best to Hayden Hurst, blocking TE I have studied so far this season.  There was one sequence that made me laugh and feel sorry for Goedert.  On the first play, Goedert seemingly catches a tipped ball after landing flat on his back after being hit high to the helmet (a targeting penalty was called).  It was called incomplete although to my eye it looked good.  On the next play, Goedert ran a skinny post and caught the touchdown over a defender only to have it called back for a penalty.  On the third play, he runs a shallow crossing route left-to-right, catches the ball in open space but is tackled well a yard short of the first down and two yards short of the goal line (he probably should have ran his route a little deeper).  The next play was fourth down and I’m not sure if they went for it or kicked a field goal because the tape doesn’t show the play but they did come away empty handed.  The tape is backed up by his production: Goedert’s 2017 line is solid at 49-849-5 and 2016 was even better at 92-1,293-11.  Ultimately, I may have to revise my TE rankings and push Goedert up a bit, he’s going to be a factor in the near future for RSO owners.
  • Jake Wieneke, WR, South Dakota State:  Wieneke is another Jackrabbit that should be on your 2018 NFL Draft radar.  Wieneke has a streak of three consecutive seasons with 70+ receptions, 1,300+ yards and 11+ TDs.  That’s impressive.  He’s well off the marks so far through ten games this year but there is still time if they make a playoff run.  Wieneke is 6’4″ 215lbs and is projected to run a 4.59 by NFLDraftScout.com.  Pie in the sky comps at those measureables would be Michael Thomas and Allen Robinson.  Let’s temper expectations though as only 8 of the 19 size/speed comps I looked at were actually drafted; ironically 5 of the 8 were 1st or 2nd rounders so it seems to be real boom or bust for some reason for this group.  I also watched tape of Wieneke against TCU from last season.  I honestly think he has a chance to beat that 4.59 estimate as there were three plays where he just simply beat the defender with his speed, two of which went for a score.  There were a number of positive routes that I noted where he used either a hesitation move or a sharp jab step to change direction and fool the defender.  The film I watched only featured his targets so unfortunately I don’t have any notes on his run blocking.  An article I read while researching Wieneke brought up a great point about him, one that will be a selling point to scouts: his “catch radius.”  He’s long and athletic which lets him play even beyond his 6’4″ frame.  Like with Goedert, I came away from my study of Wieneke with positive thoughts and will have to find a spot for him in my WR rankings going forward.
  • Chase Edmonds, RB, Fordham:  Edmonds caught my eye when he played Army earlier this season.  Unfortunately, his season has been disjointed due to injury.  A good sign was that Edmonds returned from injury last week and totaled 109 yards and 2 TDs against Holy Cross.  It’s easy to forget the recent injury struggles when you look at Edmonds annual stats.  He dominated in his first three seasons.  Over those seasons, Edmonds averaged 1,761 yards, 21 rushing TDs, 25 receptions, 258 receiving yards and 2 receiving TDs.  Fordham is struggling this season (they have 6 losses already while totaling just 9 losses in Edmonds’ first three years) and whether that is the cause or effect of Edmonds’ struggles I don’t know.  Edmonds has four career games against FBS opponents (coincidentally all against either Army or Navy) and in those games he’s averaged 131 total yards and a score; that average does include a huge game in 2015 which skews the average but it counts nonetheless.  I re-watched Edmonds play against Army and was encouraged by what I saw on film prior to his injuries.  Edmonds shows good change of direction and balance but I did notice a tendency to run left (possibly a factor of where the strength of the OL lies).  He has good hands and ball tracking skills out of the backfield which he showed twice, once on a bad snap that was popped into the air and once on a tipped pass.  I’d say he was above average in pass protection.  There was one major whiff in protection but a number of good blocks.  I’m interested in seeing film of Edmonds post-injury to see if his cutting and speed are impacted at all.
  • Jeremiah Briscoe, QB, Sam Houston State:  Briscoe is a former UAB player who transferred to Sam Houston State when the Blazers football program was cut.  Briscoe has average size at 6’3″ 225lbs (similar to AJ McCarron).  He has a lot of experience (43 career games) but is an old prospect at 24.  I can’t really explain why, but when I watched his film against Incarnate Word from 2016, I thought of Dak Prescott.  He’s a little lighter than Dak and not nearly as athletic so I don’t know why I thought it but my brain kept flashing to Dak.  Briscoe’s stats in 2016 were stellar: 4,602 yards, 57 TDs and 10 INTs.  2017 has been less kind: 3,429-32-10.  His completion percentage is also down from 62.6% to 55.7%.  The film I watched of Briscoe was of horrible quality so I’m not putting much stock into it but it was clear that there were a number of inaccurate throws.  I also noted that he has an odd-looking throwing motion.  I likened it to a pitcher throwing from the stretch with a runner on base, meaning that his motion seems to be shortened and rushed.  I used the term “short arm” in my notes which isn’t a great sign for a QB prospect.  Briscoe is not a rushing threat so a change of position is not a possibility for him to increase his draft stock.  The fact that Briscoe started his career as an FBS player and that he put up 57 TDs in a season mean he should get consideration but he’s more like a training camp arm than anything else.
  • Bryan Schor, QB, James Madison:  Schor is a two year starter for #1 James Madison (10-0).  JMU won the FCS championship with Schor at the helm.  He is efficient but unspectacular, as evidenced by his championship game performance: 7 of 12, 112 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs.  In addition to being an efficient passer, Schor is also a rushing threat who has at least 7 carries in each game this season.  His per carry average in 2017 is just 2.1 but was 4.5 in 2016; in 2016 he ran for 569 yards and 10 TDs but just 192-3 this season.  Schor’s height is okay at 6’2″ but he’s too light at 213lbs to be a dual threat QB in the pros.  The fact that Schor plays for the #1 team in the FCS probably raises his stock higher than it should be based off his abilities.  I didn’t see enough in my statistical research to warrant a more in depth look so put his name on the back burner for now until after the season.
  • Damon Gibson, WR, Minnesota State University – Moorhead:  Gibson plays in Division 2, not the FCS, but I decided to include him here.  I love a good deep dive on prospects but I’m definitely not planning a D2 article anytime soon!  Gibson has elite size if he measures in as advertised: 6’4″ 236lbs.  Per his Hudl.com profile, his 40 yard dash clocks in at 4.58.  That size and speed combination nets him a short list of comps, namely Devin Funchess and Mike Evans (who was an inch taller but a few pounds lighter).  Gibson caught 90 balls in 2016 for 1,549 yards and 17 TDs (17.21 yards per catch).  His stats in 2017 aren’t as eye-popping but they are still solid: 54-649-3-12.02.  Gibson earned a nomination for the Harlon Hill award in 2016 (the D2 Heisman equivalent).  I watched some of Gibson’s target montage posted to his Hudl.com profile and it’s immediately obvious that he was a man among boys at the D2 level.  Since he’s a standout at the D2 level, he could factor in at the 2018 draft because of his measureables.  Let’s see if he gets a combine invite and what he makes of it.

Games to Watch

  • Wofford at South Carolina, 4:00pm Saturday on SEC Network:  We have five FCS vs FBS matchups this weekend which feels like a lot for Week 12.  FCS #7 Wofford is the best candidate for an upset.  They are 9-1 and focus heavily on the rush (they have three 500+ yard rushers and their QB is averaging just 5.8 completions per game).  The other cross-division matchups are: Mercer at #1 Alabama; Delaware State at Florida State; Citadel at #2 Clemson; Western Carolina at North Carolina.
  • #24 Michigan at #5 Wisconsin, 12:00pm Saturday on FOX:  This is the only Top 25 matchup of the weekend, so enjoy.  I’m a Michigan fan and honestly I would be okay with the Wolverines losing at Camp Randall in the best interest of the conference.  I’d rather see a 13-0 Wisconsin force the committee’s hand than see a 2- or 3-loss Big Ten champion.  Both teams feature strong running games.  Wisconsin is led by freshman Jonathan Taylor (1,525-12) while Michigan has a three-headed monster featuring Karan Higdon (854-10), Chris Evans (569-6) and Ty Isaac (548-2).
  • #15 UCF at Temple, 12:00pm Saturday on ESPNU:  Finding great games this week is tough.  #1 and #2 play FCS opponents while the rest of the Top 10, minus Wisconsin, play significantly weaker opponents.  I decided to highlight UCF’s game against Temple because it probably has the biggest bowl implication as UCF needs to win out to get a New Year’s Six berth.  If UCF loses, it will be an interesting decision for the committee as to who should be ranked higher, UCF or Memphis.  UCF beat Memphis 40-13 earlier in the season but Memphis has been on a roll since then trying to outduel UCF, scoring 239 total points in those five games since.  UCF is led by QB McKenzie Milton who has tossed for 2,720 yards, 22 TDs and 5 INTs.  Their rushing attack is strong too.  The leading rushers are Milton and RB Adrian Killins but the love is spread around (seven different players have 2+ rushing TDs and six have 100+ rushing yards).  UCF is 37th in rushing yards per game but 6th in rushing TDs per game, go figure.  Luckily for the Golden Knights, Temple has the 77th ranked rush defense.

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch.  If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen.  I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability.  If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents.  Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
  • Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

Slicing ’17 Rookie Class into 12 Tiers

Updated: July 23rd 2017

According to a recent poll on our RSO Twitter feed, about 50% of RSO leagues have not yet conducted their rookie drafts.  As you’re continuing your preparation, I’m here to provide my tiered rankings of the top 50 rookies.  Navigating three to four rounds of a rookie draft isn’t easy.  My tiers are designed to help you know when to buy or sell so you can accumulate the best possible rookie class, at great value!

So let’s begin…

Tier 1

1. Corey Davis WR TEN

While Corey Davis may not be quite the same level of prospect as recent 1.01/1.02 picks Ezekiel Elliott, Amari Cooper, and Todd Gurley, he’s undoubtedly the best prospect in this class and the only receiver I’m willing to bet will be a true NFL #1.  Putting my money where my mouth is, I already have 3 shares and am aiming for more.

Tier 2

2. Joe Mixon RB CIN
3. Christian McCaffrey RB CAR
4. Leonard Fournette RB JAX

To say you can’t go wrong with picks 2, 3, and 4 would be inaccurate. In a few years, all three will have differing values. But at this point, the margins between each are razor-thin.

Consistent with my general strategy, I’m going to often choose the most talented player regardless of their potential non-talent-related downfalls such as injury history, off-the-field issues, etc. I’ll take Joe Mixon at 2.  He’s the only RB in this class that I believe truly has an elite RB1 ceiling. My rankings 3rd and 4th ranked players differ depending on your scoring system. PPR -> Christian McCaffrey. Standard -> Leonard Fournette.

Tier 3

5. Dalvin Cook RB MIN

While a sub-10th percentile SPARQ score terrifies me, Dalvin Cook‘s college tape tells a different story. I firmly believe that he’s the most talented back on the Minnesota Vikings and it isn’t remotely close. How soon he will earn playing time may be another story. He will need to improve drastically in pass-protection and ball security to earn playing time.

After the 1.05 pick, this draft class falls off a cliff. If you’re slated to pick 6th or later in the first round of a rookie draft this year, I’d advise shopping that pick for help now or 2018/2019 picks.

Tier 4

6. Mike Williams WR LAC

Back injuries are scary. Back injuries are especially scary when learning a NFL playbook for this first time, getting acclimated to a NFL playbook, and completing for playing time among a crowded group of talented receivers. Even if he fully recovers from this injury in time for the season, he’s unlikely to contribute in a meaningful way this season. Still my 1.06, I’d only make that pick if I’ve exhausted every trade possible without coming to an agreement. If Mike Williams struggles for playing time, but appears healthy when on the field, he might be a buy-low target at the trade deadline or during the 2018 off-season

For more info on his injury and the potential need for surgery if the non-surgical route doesn’t work, I’d recommend listening to the AUDIBLE LIVE! Podcast from June 8th as Jene Bramel (@JeneBramel on Twitter) provides great insight.

Tier 5

7. Alvin Kamara RB NO
8. John Ross WR CIN
9. David Njoku TE CLE
10. Evan Engram TE NYG
11. Samaje Perine RB WAS
12. O.J. Howard TE TB
13. Kareem Hunt RB KC

Even if he doesn’t develop as an inside runner, Alvin Kamara will still be a very productive pass-catching back in the NFL. The Saints offense is very RB friendly and neither Adrian Peterson or Mark Ingram are locks for the Saints’ 2018 roster.

Love John Ross‘ talent, but hate the landing spot. Andy Dalton isn’t the ideal QB for him, especially behind a poor offensive line that may force them to focus on getting the ball out of his hands quickly.

My tight end rankings are based on my belief in their long-term upside. Love David Njoku‘s talent and his situation isn’t as bad as many believe, especially with the release of Gary Barnidge. Evan Engram should settle in as a big slot receiver, though classified as a TE, for the Giants once they release he can’t handle the typical blocking duties of an in-line TE.

O.J. Howard likely will end up as the best NFL TE, but I’m worried that his talent as a blocker may limit his fantasy potential.

Samaje Perine doesn’t feel like a 1st rounder to me.  I would do everything possible to trade the 1.11 pick for a random 2018 1st. He was graded by many as a late 2nd or early 3rd round pick dynasty rookie pick, but has catapulted into the 1st round due to his promising landing spot in Washington. Betting on him to the next Jordan Howard is dangerous. Barring that type of breakout, I expect Washington to be in play for signing a free agent or drafting a top RB prospect in 2018.

Rounding out this tier is Kareem Hunt – a running back who dazzled on tape, but disappointed at the NFL combine. Joining a Spencer Ware in the Kansas City backfield, many believe Hunt will overtake Ware for the majority of carries by mid-season. I believe this is far from a lock and would expect Ware to lead KC in carries this year, by a 2:1 ratio.

Tier 6

14. JuJu Smith-Schuster WR PIT
15. Chris Godwin WR TB
16. Carlos Henderson WR DEN
17. James Conner RB PIT
18. Zay Jones WR BUF
19. Curtis Samuel WR CAR

Higher on Carlos Henderson than most, I love his ability after the catch. It’s also worth mentioning that aging receivers Demaryius Thomas and Emmanuel Sanders aren’t long-term barriers to playing time in Denver.

Tier 7

20. Taywan Taylor WR TEN
21. D’Onte Foreman RB HOU
22. Jeremy McNichols RB TB

Loved Taywan Taylor pre-draft and couldn’t have hoped for a much better landing spot.  Great target in the late 2nd or early 3rd round of your draft.

Tier 8

23. Melvin Mack RB IND
24. Kenny Galladay WR DET
25. ArDarius Stewart WR NYJ
26. Gerald Everett TE LAR
27. Joe Williams RB SF
28. Josh Reynolds WR LAR
29. Chad Williams WR ARI

This group includes several recent ADP risers: Kenny Galladay, ArDarius Stewart, Joe Williams, and Chad Williams. In each of my drafts, I want to land several players from this tier.

Tier 10

30. Jamaal Williams RB GB
31. Aaron Jones RB GB
32. Patrick Mahomes QB KC

In both redraft and dynasty, Ty Montgomery is the back I want in Green Bay though it’s hard to ignore the fact that the Packers drafted 3 running backs. If everything breaks right for either rookie back, Williams and Jones could be featured in one of the NFL’s best offenses. That alone makes them solid values in the 3rd round.

If early rookie drafts are any indication, I’m going to be heavily invested in Patrick Mahomes. While he’ll need to be more consistent to succeed at the next level, I can’t help but drool at his raw ability. His landing spot, under Andy Reid’s tutelage, could not be better. Let’s not forget that Andy Reid used to be criticized during his Eagles days for passing too much.  Mahomes will be put into position to not only succeed, but also develop into a QB1 in fantasy.

Tier 11

33. Cooper Kupp WR LAR
34. Wayne Gallman RB NYG
35. Amara Dorboh WR SEA
36. Deshaun Watson QB HOU
37. Adam Shaheen TE CHI
38. DeShone Kizer QB CLE
39. Mitchell Trubisky QB CHI

Tier 12

40. Ishmael Zamora WR OAK
41. Jonnu Smith TE TEN
42. Josh Malone WR CIN
43. Jehu Chessen WR KC
44. Chad Kelly QB DEN
45. Dede Westbrook WR JAX

Tier 13

46. Shelton Gibson WR PHI
47. Jake Butt TE DEN

48. Elijah McGuire RB NYJ
49. Brian Hill RB ATL
50. Donnel Pumphrey RB PHI


Bio: An avid fan of all things NFL, Dave has been playing fantasy football since 1999.  Though Dave participates in all types of fantasy football including redraft and daily, he prefers dynasty and keeper leagues as talent evaluation and scouting are integral components of each.  Follow him on Twitter @DaveSanders_RSO