The Watch List: Week 10

Updated: November 1st 2017

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the storylines, players and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my weekly picks, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout the season as The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year. 

Storylines to Watch

  • Heisman Update: Penn State RB Saquon Barkley was mostly held in check against Ohio State but he did total 67 yards and two touchdowns. His first score came on the opening kickoff and just shows how effortlessly he can change the outlook of a game. I’m not yet ready to advocate for him to go first overall in the NFL Draft but he is undoubtedly a Top 3 pick for me. Louisville QB Lamar Jackson had another big game (491 combined passing and rushing yards with 4 total TDs) but the Cardinals lost again, this time to Wake Forest. I just don’t think the voters will go for him on a barely bowl eligible team. Much like stubborn baseball Hall of Fame voters refuse to put anybody in unanimously, I don’t think Heisman voters will want to give Jackson a second award that puts him in the most rarefied of air while playing on a bad team. Bryce Love did ultimately sit out last Thursday against Oregon State which I think hurts his Heisman stock. Playing in a primetime (instead of 10:00pm or later) weeknight game on ESPN would have helped a lot of east coast voters see him live. So, who would I have second? It has to be Notre Dame RB Josh Adams. I am not sold on his prospects at the next level but he put up another huge game against a solid NC State defense. Adams went for 202 yards and a touchdown and is making it harder and harder to ignore him.
  • CFP Rankings: I am writing this on Monday and Tuesday prior to the CFP ranking release “show.” A few thoughts… 1) why does this need to be a weekly show, just give us the rankings. 2) Remember, there is a lot of football left to play. Last year’s initial rankings were Alabama, Clemson, Michigan and Texas A&M. Michigan ended up 6th while A&M finished unranked. 3) Don’t be surprised to see Notre Dame at #4 in the CFP ranking despite being #5/8 in the AP/Coaches polls.  It’s hard for Notre Dame to fly under the radar but they have in my opinion. They are 3-1 against AP ranked teams (nobody else has more than 2 such wins) and that one loss was by a single point to #2 Georgia – the committee will heavily value that.
  • MACtion is Back: The novelty will wear off in a week or two but MACtion is back and I am excited. For the uninitiated, the MAC conference plays some Tuesday and Wednesday games later in the season on the ESPN networks. It gets them some national attention and gives us football every night of the week. Below in my Players to Watch section I highlight a few names you should keep an eye on when you tune in over the next few weeks.

Players to Watch (MACtion Edition)

  • Logan Woodside, QB, Toledo:  Woodside has a shot at being a late-round QB prospect if he finishes the season strong.  So far this season his stats have been a mixed bag.  He threw 45 TDs in 2016 and has 19 so far this season, so he’ll regress there; it’s hard to say that 35 TDs is a bad year but it’s regression nonetheless.  He has significantly improved his INT rate this season (just 2 INTs on 232 attempts) but his completion percentage is down nearly 7%.  I watched Woodside a few weeks ago against Eastern Michigan, it was actually one of my Games to Watch, but he struggled; Toledo got the win but he but he threw for just 289 and no touchdowns.  I expect him to get drafted but will likely start his career as a third stringer – little upside for RSO owners but he’s still a fun college QB to watch.
  • AJ Ouellette, RB, Ohio:  Ouellette is leading the MAC in rushing (752 yards) and has seven total touchdowns.  He’s the best offensive player on the best East division team so we’ll probably see a lot of him in the coming weeks.  I would be concerned about his durability if I was a scout so I doubt we see his name mentioned in the Spring.  He missed last season due to a foot injury and was supposedly injured earlier in the season with an “undisclosed injury” per RotoWorld; maybe the same foot but not sure.  Ouellette has 121 carries this season and will surpass his previous totals (151, 160) in the coming weeks so it will be telling to see if he can finish the year healthy.  He is a former walk-on so maybe I shouldn’t be counting him out.
  • Corey Willis, WR, Central Michigan:  I was high on Willis to start the season but he was slowed by a hand injury that forced him to miss multiple games.  In his second game back he went for 5-98-3 against Ball State so hopefully he is now fully healed.  Willis is not big (5’10” 175lb) or very fast (4.50 speed) but he has a knack for big plays.  In the preseason, I compared him to John Brown and Travis Benjamin; both have had weeks of fantasy relevance this season so I think Willis should be on your sleeper radar.
  • Anthony Johnson, WR, Buffalo:  Admittedly, I have not watched a minute of Buffalo or Johnson play this season.  I am including him simply because he leads the conference in receptions and reception yards and is second in receiving touchdowns.  Per the Buffalo media guide, Johnson is a JUCO transfer who honestly did not see much success at that level (40 receptions, 993 yards and 7 TDs over two seasons at two different schools) so it’s surprising to see his 55-888-6 line in his first season of FBS competition.
  • Anthony Winbush, DE, Ball State:  Nothing new to report, Winbush is good.  I’ve written about him twice now and still think he should get talked about more.  He had a disappointing game against Toledo (just 2 tackles) but his dominating games against Illinois and Central Michigan show his potential (combined between those two games: 14 tackles, 7 tackles for loss, 5 sacks, 1 forced fumble).  Winbush leads the conference in sacks and forced fumbles.  I have no idea how he projects to the next level because he’s undersized (6’1″ and I have seen his weight listed at 207, 225 and 240lbs); it will come down to his 40-yard dash and cone drills to see if he has the speed and explosiveness to play upright as a 3-4 edge rusher.
  • Darius Phillips, CB, Western Michigan:  Phillips is a darling of Pro Football Focus and is one of their draft board risers.  He started the year strong with two great games against USC and Michigan State (4 tackles, 3 passes defended, 1 forced fumble, 1 fumble recovery and two kick return TDs) but has since slowed.  Phillips was originally recruited as a WR and actually saw his first offensive touches since 2014 a few weeks ago against Ball State.  In 2014, Phillips had 32 receptions, 479 receiving yards and 2 TDs as a freshman receiver.  He’s a talented player and I think the Broncos coaching staff will use some of these nationally televised MACtion games as an opportunity to get their guy some pub.  If you play in an IDP league you should consider Phillips because he has good ball skills and the chance for touches on special teams (or even offense in a limited package).

Games to Watch

  • #7 Penn State at #24 Michigan State, 12:00pm Saturday on FOX:  This matchup has lost some of it’s hype after both teams lost last weekend.  Still, it’s an important divisional matchup because the two 4-1 teams are just one game back of 5-0 Ohio State.  The winner will be like a dog waiting under the table for scraps as the Buckeyes finish out their season.  Plus, you should take any opportunity to watch Saquon Barkley.
  • South Carolina at #2 Georgia, 3:30pm Saturday on CBS:  We know that Georgia is a very good team but I’d bet that most fans don’t realize that the Gamecocks are 6-2 (I didn’t).  South Carolina’s rush defense is ranked 39th so it likely won’t stop the duo of Nick Chubb and Sony Michel but maybe they slow UGA enough to give sophomore QB Jake Bentley a chance.
  • #18 Stanford at #25 Washington State, 3:30pm Saturday on FOX:  An odd afternoon game for these two teams who are used to playing “PAC-12 after dark” games.  I hope that Bryce Love is back from injury so that he doesn’t miss his second straight chance to capture the national spotlight.  Prediction: Love goes but is outshined by the Cougars RB Jamal Morrow who has 747 total yards and 8 total TDs.
  • #19 LSU at #1 Alabama, 8:00pm Saturday on CBS:  I can’t remember the last time CBS had a primetime regular season game.  Maybe I just haven’t been paying attention but I don’t think it’s common.  So, let’s hope this one is uncommonly good.  I expect a low scoring game because of the strength of the two defenses; Alabama’s defense is Top 10 in most categories while LSU’s is Top 25.  LSU’s defensive weak spot is against the run where they are giving up 145 yards per game.  Considering that Alabama averages 298.8 yards per game on the ground (7th in the FBS, 3rd if you remove the triple option teams), I give them the edge.  Alabama’s one knock this season is their strength of schedule.  Only one of their wins came against a ranked opponent and that was the opener against Florida State who lost their quarterback and were obviously overrated in the preseason.  This one will be telling as it’s the Tide’s toughest test yet.
  • #13 Virginia Tech at #9 Miami, 8:00pm Saturday on ABC:  I have been saying over the last few weeks that Miami is overrated.  Their last four wins have been by a combined 18 points against middling opponents.  They have a tough schedule over the next two versus #13 Virginia Tech and #5 Notre Dame.  It’s time for me to pay more attention to the Hurricanes and that’ll start this week.  I’ll double down and guess that Miami loses both of these ranked contests.

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch.  If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen.  I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability.  If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents.  Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com
  • Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

2018 RSO Rookie Mock Draft v1.0

Updated: September 6th 2017

Here it is, version 1.0 of my RSO rookie mock draft for 2018.  Remember, it’s early.  Very early.  Players will be overperform, underperform, go on hot streaks, go through slumps, get hurt, get suspended, get arrested or maybe not even declare early.  What I’m trying to say is use this as a tool to start your rookie research but don’t bank on it come May.  When creating this mock draft, I used two base assumptions: 1) a standard 1 QB roster setup and 2) any junior good enough to be considered will declare early.  For more information on most of these players, check out my Watch List previews which feature deeper dives on stats and film study.  Share your thoughts with me on Twitter @robertfcowper. Note: I wrote this article in August before the season began so any big games or injuries from the beginning of the season are not taken into account.  Updated versions will be posted throughout the season.

1.01, Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
1.02, Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

Preseason hype has these two locked into the first two slots. I would expect them to jockey with each other throughout the season as they have good and bad games. I believe Barkley will end up the consensus 1.01 due to his larger workload and his pass catching ability.

1.03, Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia

If it weren’t for Chubb’s serious knee injury last year he would have been in the 1.01 mix. I might be higher on him than some but I feel putting him at 1.03 already takes the injuries into consideration, no need to knock him down further.  Not a bad consolation prize if you miss out on Barkley or Guice.

1.04, Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
1.05, Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M

Having Ridley as the WR1 is not the norm per my research. Ridley was more highly sought as a high school recruit than Kirk and hasn’t done anything to dissuade my opinion yet. Kirk is electric and might have a higher ceiling (I compared him to Odell Beckham Jr. in my SEC preview), but a lower floor, so it comes down to your risk tolerance.

1.06, Bo Scarborough, RB, Alabama
1.07, Royce Freeman, RB Oregon

Like Chubb, Scarborough’s injury history drops him down my mock draft. He also had an academic related suspension to start his freshman season. If he can stay healthy, you would be getting a massive value here.  Freeman screams NFL running back to me when I look at his stats and his highlights. He may end up being a day three real life pick but I have a feeling he will be fantasy relevant very early in his career.

1.07, Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU
1.08, James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State
1.10, Deon Cain, WR, Clemson

Sutton and Washington are a clear tier break at the position for me after Ridley and Kirk. They both have negatives that concern me. Sutton racked up his 2016 stats against very weak defenses; Washington looks smaller to me than his 6’0″ and 205lb listing suggests. There are some bright spots though. Sutton has NFL size and the ability to make spectacular high-point or toe-tap catches; Washington has breakaway speed that I likened to Desean Jackson.  Cain really impressed me when I researched him. He contributed as an underclassmen on very successful Clemson teams that were full of NFL talent. Now that he’s the BMOC Cain should impress everybody else.  I have Sutton ranked highest of the three because he has the best chance to move up my rankings.

2.01, Sam Darnold, QB, USC

I really wanted to put Darnold at 1.10 but I didn’t have the guts to do it yet. For our purposes here, I am using a standard 1 QB format so Darnold isn’t quite that valuable. In a superflex? He’ll move up to the 1.06 range. I continue to believe that the value of second round quarterbacks in the RSO format is too good to pass up (pun intended).

2.02, Anthony Miller, WR, Memphis
2.03, Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame
2.04, Dante Pettis, WR, Washington

Despite the pedigree of St. Brown and Pettis, I put Miller ahead of them. Maybe it’s a foolish decision, but even though they have had good production, I have questions about the size of St. Brown and Pettis.  St. Brown is long and lean; of the seven WR who measured 6’4″ and 205lb or less at the combine since 2010, all were busts.  The list of successful NFL wide receivers who weigh less than 190lbs, like Pettis, is short. Miller isn’t really any bigger but he just popped when I watched him – maybe because he was playing against lesser defenders. He did have one insane OBJ-esque touchdown catch that itself made me want to bump him even higher.  All three of these guys could gain ground in my mock drafts if they gain some weight.

2.05, L.J. Scott, RB, Michigan State
2.06, Sony Michel, RB, Georgia
2.07, Ronald Jones, RB, USC

I’m lower on Jones than some of the devy sites I read. I just was not a fan after doing some early research. He’s too tall for his weight and he only has one career 20+ carry game. Scott does not have the weight concern – he’s a bruiser at 230lbs – but it was disappointing that his TD production slipped in 2016, albeit on a bad Spartans team. I’m expecting the team, and his stats, to improve in 2017. Michel has shared the Georgia backfield with more highly touted backs in Todd Gurley and Nick Chubb. He likely won’t rise to their fantasy draft pick heights, but he should be a decent NFL pick. I put Michel above Jones because of the dominant way Michel closed out 2015 after Chubb got hurt.

2.08, Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
2.09, Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

The two Joshes will battle for the QB2 spot behind Sam Darnold. I have Rosen ahead right now because I think he’s more NFL ready but I expect Allen to put up huge numbers against the MWC’s weaker opposition. Even more so than with Darnold at 2.01, the value here for either quarterback is too good to pass up.

2.10, Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma
3.01, Allen Lazard, WR, Iowa State

I’m confident that these two tall Big 12 pass catchers will be solid pros but they aren’t very sexy hence the later picks. Andrews is 6’5″ and 250lbs and has 14 career receiving TDs on 50 receptions.  He is more of a “move tight end” and often lines up off the line of scrimmage in the Sooners’ spread offense; he isn’t the best TE in the class but will probably be drafted highest for fantasy purposes.  Lazard, a senior, is the same height as Andrews but weighs in at about 225lbs. He has been the best player on a struggling Iowa State team since he was a true freshman.

3.02, Myles Gaskin, RB, Washington
3.03, Damien Harris, RB, Alabama
3.04, Kalen Ballage, RB, Arizona State

These three Power Five running backs find themselves in the third round instead of the second because each has some negatives. I changed the order a number of times but settled on Gaskins first. Neither Harris nor Ballage have been “the guy” for their offenses and both have some minor injury concerns. Meanwhile, Gaskin has almost as many career carries as the other two combined but I think he will measure in smaller than advertised.

3.05, Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina
3.05, Troy Fumagalli, TE, Wisconsin

It’s unlikely that we see Top 12 prospects in 2018 like we did in 2017 but I’ll bet we get 3 or 4 of them taken in standard RSO drafts with owners who missed out on the 2017 class and hoping for a repeat in 2018.   Hurst was near the top in receptions and touchdowns by TEs last year with a true freshman quarterback so he will see improved production.  I watched his film against South Florida from last year and I’d say he’s a B to a B+ blocker, with good hands (evidenced by a nice one-handed touchdown catch) and good speed.  If it weren’t for Fumagalli’s injury history (it’s extensive) he’d be higher on this list.  He’s a better blocker than Hurst, probably the best blocking TE I have seen when watching film the last two seasons, and should see the NFL field quickly.

3.07, Michael Gallup, WR, Colorado State
3.08, Corey Willis, WR, Central Michigan
3.09, Jordan Chunn, RB, Troy

I’m calling my shots with these three small-school players. If they don’t put up stellar numbers they won’t make it this high in your fantasy drafts but I think each has a chance to rocket up expert rankings to find their way on your radar. Gallup is a high volume JUCO transfer who caught 14 TDs in his first NCAA season. Willis is a speedster with good hands who broke out for 72 receptions as a junior and caught my eye while writing my MAC preview. Chunn is the Sun Belt’s best hope at a fantasy relevant rookie in my opinion. In 2016, he rebounded from a 2015 medical redshirt to gain 1,288 yards and 16 TDs; he’s big at 6’1″ 230lbs and caught 30 balls last year.

3.10, Antonio Callaway, WR, Florida

I probably should have Callaway ranked higher but I was torn on whether to include him at all.  I’d rather move him up later if he shows me more than go against my gut now.  I put him here to acknowledge that he’s probably a Top 30 devy talent but I think he’s being rated too highly.

Honorable Mention, Adam Breneman, TE, UMass

Breneman is a small-school favorite of mine who had a 70-808-8 line last year.  I originally had him in the mix at 3.05 and 3.06 with Fumagalli and Hurst but ultimately I couldn’t justify having three TEs at that spot.  At this point in the process, I believe that Fumagalli and Hurst are more  NFL-ready so I gave them the nod over Breneman.

The Watch List: MAC Preview

Updated: July 23rd 2017

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players, storylines and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention.  Check back throughout the Summer for previews on each conference and my preseason Heisman predictions.  During the regular season, The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year. 

Players to Watch

  • Corey Willis, WR, Central Michigan: Willis is probably best known for his highlight reel hail mary touchdown against Oklahoma State last year.  Honestly, he didn’t do a whole lot on that play, the ball was tipped back to him by a teammate, but it’s the type of play that gets a small school guy some attention and SportsCenter buzz.  He has good speed, maybe 4.50, and is a good open field runner.  He catches the ball away from his body which is good because he’s relying on his hands rather than his body to catch the ball.  John Brown and Travis Benjamin are two good size and speed comparisons, I think.  He had a productive 72/1,091/9 season in 2016 and had his best game against a Power 5 team (albeit a bad one in 2-10 Virginia) racking up 145 yards and 2 TDs on 6 catches.  I think CMU could be a spoiler in the MAC and if Willis is again the leading WR he will creep up NFL and RSO draft boards.  His draft stock might be similar to Taywan Taylor this year.
  • Jarvion Franklin, RB, Western Michigan: Franklin’s pro prospects will hinge on what he does in 2017.  He dominated as a freshman in 2014 with 306 carries, 1,531 yards and 24 TDs but had a disappointing sophomore season.  He was back to a starring role in 2016, with 1,353 yards and 12 TDs (plus he was more of a pass catcher with 25 receptions and 288 receiving yards) but was overshadowed by WR Corey Davis.  With Davis gone, and QB Zach Terrell gone, and head coach PJ Fleck gone, can Franklin carry the team to another bowl game?  If so he could be a solid late round RB.
  • James Gilbert, RB, Ball State: The reason I decided to research Gilbert was his tremendous output against Buffalo last year: 34 carries, 264 yards and 2 TDs.  In the last five seasons, only 16 players have had a better D1 game than Gilbert (and the list includes some great NFL fantasy names: Le’veon Bell, Derrick Henry, Thomas Rawls).  Gilbert was the leading rusher on a bad 4-8 Ball State team last year (just 1-7 in conference) but he managed to improve his per carry average (4.0 in 2015 to 5.3 in 2016) and is just shy of 2,000 career yards.  His biggest weakness?  He has just 4 career catches.  Another issue with Gilbert, at least for me as a writer?  Good luck finding game film or highlight reels.  If he shines again on a bad team, and makes some good tape for himself, he might look to leave early for the NFL.

Storylines to Watch

  • The exodus from Western Michigan: The Broncos are losing the three biggest reasons they went to the Cotton Bowl last year: head coach PJ Fleck, WR Corey Davis and QB Zach Terrell.  Fleck has left to “row the boat” at Minnesota; Davis will be catching balls from Marcus Mariota in Tennessee; Terrell signed as a free agent with the Ravens (ironically Joe Flacco’s younger brother Tom could be starting for Western Michigan this year).  The team only returns 9 starters, just 3 of which are on the offensive side of the ball.  Luckily for returning RB Jarvion Franklin, another one of those returners is monstrous LT Chukwuma Okorafor (6’6″, 330lb and a possible first round NFL pick).
  • Central Michigan as spoilers: Most preseason magazines and online previews I have seen have Central Michigan somewhere in the 4-7 range in the conference.  That might be right but I have them pegged as a potential spoiler.  The Chippewas have a winnable non-conference schedule (Kansas, Syracuse and Boston College) and luckily get to host Toledo, Northern Illinois and Miami Ohio, most of the top conference competition, at home.  Another thing working in their favor is their experience.  Per Phil Steele, CMU returns the most seniors in the “two-deep” depth chart in the MAC; they also have the most returning OL starts, a boon for a middling offense.  I enjoyed watching highlights of Corey Willis so maybe I’m just trying to convince myself so I have a reason to tune into Central Michigan’s games this season but I think they could surprise.

Games to Watch

  • September 23, Toledo at Miami (FL): When I first saw this one on the schedule, I assumed it was supposed to be Miami of Ohio but was pleasantly surprised to see I was wrong and that it was in fact Miami of Florida.  If Toledo has any chance of making it to a top bowl game this year, like Western Michigan did last year, it will likely come down to this game.  Western Michigan stole an early season game by one point against Northwestern last season and if Toledo could do the same it would propel them and QB Logan Woodside to the national discussion.  Of course, they also need to win-out in conference otherwise it’s all for naught.
  • October 31, Miami Ohio at Ohio: Looking for some MACtion on Halloween night?  The Tuesday night games in the MAC can be dull but this one should be entertaining.  The in-state foes should be pacing the East division and whoever wins could end the season with the tiebreaker that gets them in the conference championship.
  • November 24, Northern Illinois at Central Michigan: As I mentioned above, I think CMU has a chance to weasel their way into the conference championship.  Chances are they wouldn’t have any margin for error, so winning against NIU in the last game of the season would be necessary.  Even if it isn’t Central Michigan playing spoiler for Toledo, it could be NIU.  Either way, the winner of this game will be hoping to beat out Toledo for the West division crown.

Thanks for reading.  Check back soon for the Mountain West preview.


Note: When watching film for a player, I typically pick two games at random to watch.  I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability.  If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents.  Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com
  • Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, ESPN’s First Draft podcast, draftek.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.