Week 15 QB Start-Sit

Updated: December 14th 2017

I wanted to kick this off with a big thank you to the team at RSO for giving me the opportunity to contribute. I’m excited about bringing you all some great content and working with all the great people at RSO.

I have to take a second to acknowledge that two more starting QB’s went down in week 14. Carson Wentz (torn ACL) as well as Josh Mccown (broken hand) are now out for the season. NFL teams and fantasy team alike have had it rough this year with injuries. If you are looking for a streaming option, here are a few guys to check on and see if you can snag them up before someone else does. Jimmy G has been a solid option since taking over in SF and has good matchups coming up in weeks 15 & 16, as well as Blake Bortles if all else fails. Foles should still be a viable option moving forward. Congratulations to all the teams that have made it this far…almost to the promised land. I have compiled a list that I hope will help you make the right decision at QB as you attempt to make your league’s title game.

QB Starts of the Week

Top Start of the Week

Philip Rivers: Holy cow, talk about deja vu, right? Seems like this guy is sitting right here week in and week out as a QB you should be starting. I’m gonna show you why. Since the Chargers November 12th matchup against the Jags, they have won four straight games. Over that span, Rivers has been almost perfect with 1,348 yards thru the air and 8 touchdowns, holding an average QBR of 118 over this span. This week, he is facing a Chiefs team that is giving up an average of 22.8 fantasy points to opposing QBs, which is the worst in the league. Don’t be that guy that watches him blow up again while on your bench–start him or regret it!

Must Starts

Drew Brees: I can’t lie, Brees was tough to put here. He could be considered the start of the week seeing as the Jets just gave up 200 yards and a TD to Trevor Siemian. What made the difference? Josh Mccown going down and out for the season and Kamara looks good to return for this one. I just don’t see the Saints needing to throw a ton. The Jets are giving up an average 231 yards through the air to QBs, so Brees will have a day you don’t want to miss, and will be in the top 10 week 15 among QBs. I would almost bet that Brees posts the same kind of numbers this week as he did in week 14. I’m gonna say 250 plus yards and two touchdowns for the not so young man at home, where he always seems to shine.

Dak Prescott: This one just seems so easy to me. I know it was the Giants and Redskins but it was just what he needed. Facing a Raiders team ranked 25th against the pass, allowing an average of 241 yards through the air with only two interceptions all year, Dak should have no trouble staying on a hot streak (he has racked up 434 yards and 5 TDs in his last two games). Do not leave him on your bench only to find him among the top 5 QBs for the second week in a row after this matchup. He is an absolute must start for week 15.

Honorable Mention Starts

Blake Bortles vs. Houston (allowing 22.7 FPs to opposing QBs)

Joe Flacco vs. Cleveland (allowing 21 FPs to opposing QBs)

Nick Foles vs. Giants (alline 22.6 FPs to opposing QBs)

QB Sits of the Week

Top Sit of the Week

Houston Texans QB: This may seem like a no brainer, but with two more starting QBs going down I had to put them here. Going against an extremely stout Jacksonville defense that is giving up the fewest fantasy points to QB’s in the league (allowing an average of 11 points to opposing QB’s), whoever plays QB for Houston is bound to struggle this week. The Jags have only allowed 20 or more points to one QB and only allowed a total of six QBs to get 15 or more points. Savage has looked, well, horrible, and this matchup is flat out ugly.

Must Sits

Andy Dalton: Things are not looking good for Dalton heading into his week 15 matchup against the Vikings. Dalton completed 48% of his passes for a stat line of 141 yards-1 Touchdown-1 Interception. Things look to be worse for him going forward facing a Vikings defense that is allowing the fourth fewest points to opposing QBs. The Viking have also only allowed four QBs 250+ passing yards all year and only two QBs to earn 20+ fantasy points. The tables are stacked against him in a game that could get out of hand. Dalton may offer some garbage time points but not the kind of thing you want to rely on in the fantasy playoffs.

Eli Manning: What a crazy year for Eli. He was able to complete 67% of his passes on Sunday, which is his best in his last three games. Yep, that’s the only thing that is good. He has one TD and three interceptions over his last three games and is facing an Eagles defense that is allowing the second fewest fantasy points to QBs over the past six weeks. Having no real weapons in either the run or the passing game that can be consistent, I’m avoiding Eli for the rest of the year, not just this week.

Honorable Mention Sits

Blaine Gabbert vs. Washington

Kirk Cousins vs. Arizona


Brandon is a fantasy and RSO fanatic and resides in Colorado. You can reach him @FntsyFxr on Twitter. He specializes and lives for helping people rebuild their franchises.

Questionable Offseason Moves

Updated: August 22nd 2017

Every season NFL teams make questionable moves in the offseason which makes one wonder what the team is thinking. Poor personnel decisions, salary cap management, and lack of coherent team direction cause major headaches both during the season and for the future.  I take a look at a few of these situations and examine the implications for both NFL teams and your RSO leagues.

Houston Texans and Jacksonville Jaguars: A hope and a prayer at quarterback

I felt confident each of these teams would address the quarterback position bringing in quality veteran competition. Instead, Houston traded up in the draft for Clemson’s DeShaun Watson to compete with incumbent Tom Savage and Jacksonville stuck with Blake Bortles only resigning perpetual backup Chad Henne.

The Texans have wasted a J.J. Watt led defense which has finished eighth or better in Football Outsider’s DVOA metric for defensive efficiency each of the last three seasons. Despite the strong defense and playing in a poor division, Houston finished just 9-7 in the last three seasons primarily due to incompetent quarterback play.  Now the Texans are left with the uninspiring choice of relying on either Tom Savage or rookie DeShaun Watson.  Savage did not throw a single touchdown pass and managed only 6.3 yards per attempt (close to Blake Bortles and Carson Wentz who were among the bottom of the league) in three appearances.  The Texans managed just 21, 12, and 17 points scored in those contests.  The other option is starting first round pick Watson.  The odds of rookie quarterbacks performing well are not good.  For every Dak Prescott, there is a Jared Goff, Ryan Leaf, and E.J. Manuel who produce very little.

The Jaguars, meanwhile, maintained the status-quo by keeping Blake Bortles as the starting quarterback. Jacksonville possesses an ascending young defense built from multiple high draft picks and expensive free agent additions.  Quarterback play doomed this team to awful finishes over the last few seasons where the Jaguars won only 11 games over the last three years.  You can read about Bortles’ struggles with more detail. Simply put, Bortles has been one of the worst quarterbacks in the NFL over his three year career.  Jacksonville then compounded the problem by inexplicably picking up Bortles’ fifth-year option at $19 million for 2018.  There is no upside to picking up the option and lots of downside.  The odds of Bortles suddenly making a significant jump in the fourth season are extremely low.  There is practically zero chance Bortles would make anything close to $19 million on the open market in 2018.  The contract also becomes fully guaranteed if he suffers a catastrophic injury which prevents him from playing in 2018.  The Jaguars probably look for a new quarterback in 2018.

RSO Consequences: Look for more of the same in Houston.  This has been among the most run-heavy offenses in the league since head coach Bill O’Brien arrived and that is unlikely to change.  Lamar Miller and rookie D’Onta Foreman should see plenty of volume.  DeAndre Hopkins and the rest of the Houston receiving core will likely be limited by poor quarterback play and low volume once again.  Neither Savage nor Watson will be fantasy relevant.

Jacksonville, on the other hand, looks to completely change the script.  They invested heavily in fourth overall pick running back Leonard Fournette and will want the running game to carry the offense.  Expect a sharp decline in Blake Bortles pass attempts this season from the over 600 for each of the last two years.  Things have gone terribly wrong for the Jaguars if Bortles throws the ball much more than 500 times.  This reduction in volume, while good for Jacksonville, likely means less production from Allen Robinson and the rest of the Jaguars’ receivers.  Bortles should provide QB2 production when playing but could easily be benched later in the season due to performance and/or the fifth-year guarantee to prevent injury.

Kansas City Chiefs: Contender or Rebuilder?

Another team making a big move on draft day, Kansas City gave up 2017 first and third round picks in addition to a 2018 first to take quarterback Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs decided to gamble on a possible future quarterback upgrade where they could have added premium playmaking talents.  Kansas City then released Jeremy Maclin, the only proven wide receiver on the roster.  No other wide receiver on the roster broke the 600 yard mark for the Chiefs.  These are moves typically made from a team rebuilding for the future, not from a team which has won 23 games over the last two seasons.  I would not say the Chiefs are sabotaging Alex Smith’s likely last season as a starter in Kansas City, but it is clear Kansas City is not providing Smith with all the tools possible to succeed and the Chiefs are questionable to make the playoffs given how the offseason has gone.

On a side note, waiting until June to release Maclin was a classless move on the part of the Chiefs. Kansas City certainly has salary cap issues but they have known about these cap issues before the free agency period began and nothing new has happened to change their mind about the move.  There is no good reason for the Chiefs to release Maclin, who has been nothing but a model citizen and teammate, this late in the offseason after teams have spent most of their cap space in free agency.  This is an issue I foresee many agents addressing in top players’ contracts next season forcing teams to make an earlier decision on player cuts.

RSO Consequences: Tight end Travis Kelce maintains his role as the dominant receiver in this offense.  The wide receiver position is a free for all.  Rookie sensation Tyreek Hill’s dynamic freshman campaign was largely supported by some, likely unsustainable, huge runs resulting in an absurd 11.2 yards per carry and a bunch of manufactured touches near the line of scrimmage in the passing game.  Will this usage continue or will another receiver step up for Kansas City?  Historically Alex Smith supported, at most, one fantasy relevant wide receiver and the upside is not extremely high considering the limited volume in the Kansas City passing attack.  Maclin should be a quality second wide receiver for the team that lands him but his fantasy value will largely be determined by where he lands.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers: The Doug Martin Contract

By most accounts, Tampa Bay improved considerably this offseason offensively highlighted by free agent acquisition DeSean Jackson at wide receiver and first round draft pick O.J. Howard at tight end. One player who will not contribute at the start is running back Doug Martin who will miss the first three games as part of a four game suspension for performance enhancing drugs.  Martin’s production has been extremely spotty in his five year career, accumulating less than 500 rushing yards in three out of five seasons with injuries playing a key role.  He is in the second year of a five year contract which pays him a little under $6 million this season (7th highest cap hit of any running back) and around $7 million for the remaining three seasons.

The running back market has changed since Martin signed his contract. Not a single back, including high profile names Eddie Lacy, Marshawn Lynch, and Adrian Peterson, signed for more than $4 million during free agency.  Clearly, Martin’s contract is out of line in today’s market for a 28 year old back with his overall lack of production and injury/suspension issues. The Buccaneers were given an out, however, as Martin’s suspension voids the 2017 salary guarantees in his contract.  This is a golden opportunity for Tampa Bay to, at a minimum, renegotiate Martin’s contract to a level more commensurate with the market.  An outright release is also not out of the question given the current options on the team and options likely available in trade or free agency.   It is a mystery why Tampa Bay has not addressed the situation yet.

RSO Consequences: The running game was ugly in 2016 with Tampa Bay averaging over four yards per carry against only a single opponent (San Francisco’s awful run defense).  The situation could be a mess in 2017 and is one of the most unpredictable in the league.  Rodgers, Sims, and rookie McNichols could all see significant looks without Martin in an offense that could score plenty if Jameis Winston takes another step forward.  Martin’s outcomes range from being cut to taking over the lead role in an offense with many scoring chances.  I generally steer clear of heavy investment in large, uncertain running back committees and this group is not an exception unless you can get pieces on the cheap.


Bio:  Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.