Week 2 Waiver Report

Updated: September 12th 2017

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 50% of RSO league that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer 1 player that is owned in <10% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

Tarik Cohen, RB – CHI (owned 45%) 5 Car/66 yards, 8 Rec/47 yards, 1 TD

Surely the biggest surprise of the week 1 was how much rookie runner Tarik Cohen was involved in the Bears’ offense. Yes, he did have 40% of his total yards on one big reverse field run play but overall he was heavily involved in the passing game with 8 catches on 12 targets (led team) and almost led the Bears to an upset win over the reigning NFC Champs. It’s not like Jordan Howard wasn’t involved (13-51-1) as he also had 3 catches but this could definitely decrease Howard’s role on passing downs. The Bears look like they could be joining the rest of the NFL on the RBBC bus now. For owners that think the Bears will be down in games and forced into passing formations, Cohen should see his share of targets each week, especially with news that Kevin White is being placed on IR now with a scapula injury. Give a bump in PPR leagues.

Suggested Bid: $1,00,000 – $4,000,000

RB Replacements

Shane Vereen, RB – NYG (owned 45%) 9 Rec/51 yards

Javorius Allen, RB – BAL (owned 19%) 21 Car/71 yards

Both of these running backs benefited from positive game script in week 1 but they did showcase what their role is in their respective offenses. For Vereen, he had 9 catches (5 on the final meaningless drive) but he was clearly the Giants passing down back. Perkins and Darkwa couldn’t get any run game going (36 yards) and the offensive line looked mediocre at best. If the Giants offense is unable to open holes for the running game they will be forced to use the dump passes as a substitute. This was the role Vereen had in New England and as long as he stays healthy it’s the role he will have this season in New York. With games against the AFC and NFC West, it’s probable that the Giants find themselves behind in games, unable to run the ball and relying on Vereen with screens and dump passes to keep the offense moving.

Javorius “Buck” Allen had 21 carries, 4th most in the opening week against the Bengals which should symbolize a bell cow role in an offense. Unfortunately, fellow back Terrance West also had 19 carries (7th most) and Joe Flacco only had 17 pass attempts in a total defensive domination by the Ravens. With Danny Woodhead going out with a hamstring injury early it did show, however, that Allen will be the secondary runner in case of a West injury or regression. This makes him an add if you have either of the other two Raven runners or a lack of depth at the position. Depending on the severity of the injury to Woodhead the Ravens do need to show which of West or Allen would be the pass catching back when games are closer. This could be Allen’s role with the upside of increased carries should West falter.

Suggested Bids: $500,000 – $1,000,000

WR Replacements

Jermaine Kearse, WR – NYJ (owned 26%) 7 Rec/59 yards

Danny Amendola, WR – NE (owned 26%) 6 Rec/ 100 yards

Many were shocked when the Jets shipped Sheldon Richardson to Seattle for some picks and Jermaine Kearse but to everyone’s surprise, Kearse led the Jets in both catches (7) and yards (59) in week 1. Sometimes volume trumps talent and despite previous reservations against Kearse’s talent when he is being fed #1 target numbers he has to be rostered. If Kearse maintains the target volume that he saw in week 1 and can offer a touchdown every 2 or 3 games he will be a nice option to have for bye weeks or when injuries start piling up.

The Patriots looked like a 16-0 team for the first half and a 0-16 team for the second half. It showed that they missed having Julian Edelman as a reliable target for crossing routes, bubble screens and 3rd down quick slants. Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan were used more on the play action and deeper routes which leaves Danny Amendola and the RBs to be the underneath pass catchers. It’s unlikely that any of the backs are available but Amendola is available in 74% of RSO leagues which needs to be changed. The Patriots are changing offensive schemes weekly but the one constant for Tom Brady is to find the quick-hit routes to move the chains. Despite Bill Belichick saying that everyone will be picking up Edelman’s contributions, it is likely Amendola who will most replicate his usage.

Suggested Bids: $1,000,000 – $2,000,000

TE Substitute

Charles Clay, TE – BUF (owned 40%) 4 Rec/53 yards, 1 TD

Similar to my Jermaine Kearse analysis sometimes a guy just needs to be rostered for his volume alone. The Bills lost Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins to the Rams this offseason and Jordan Matthews hasn’t been a spectacular fantasy option since his rookie season. While they do have Shady McCoy to run the ball someone still needs to catch passes and touchdowns. Clay should be averaging a touchdown at least every other game this season and be a reliable target for Tyrod Taylor to have between the 20s and on 3rd down. While he’s not as sexy a name as Gronk or Kelce, Clay should be a low-end TE1 for most matchups this season.

Suggested Bid: $500,000 – $1,500,000

Sleeper Add (<10%)

Kerwynn Williams, RB – ARZ (Owned 9.7%) 5 Car/10 yards, 1 Rec/2 yards, 1 TD

This is pure speculation and may have no use by the end of the week but anytime a bell cow is injured you have to take a shot in the dark. When David Johnson went out after a big hit in the 3rd quarter it was Williams who took the goal line carry for a touchdown. After Johnson went out indefinitely with a wrist injury later in the game it was Williams who played the bulk of the snaps behind Carson Palmer. If Johnson’s injury is anything that keeps him out of next week’s game and beyond (which is a real possibility if reports are true) Williams will see his share of touches and targets. If you are playing the David Johnson owner and his RB depth is thin Williams is worth a minimum bid just to limit your opponent’s options heading into week 2.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

How an Expert Writer Got to 8-0

Updated: February 19th 2015

EDITOR’S NOTE:  This week’s column is being written by Leo Howell, who is 8-0 in the Reality Sports Online/numberFire Writer’s League. Leo is an NFL and fantasy football writer for RotoGrinders, numberFire and Bucs Nation. He has played fantasy football for as long as he can remember, and has been playing daily fantasy sports since 2012. This is his first year playing in a Reality Sports Online league. He can be found on Twitter at @LeoHowell8

Here is his undefeated team:

Starters

SLOT PLAYER POS Salary PRK START %
QB Bridgewater, Teddy MIN QB $1,103,912 31 7.7
RB Charles, Jamaal KC  RB $31,850,000 13 87.2
RB Murray, DeMarco DAL  RB $16,660,000 1 89.7
WR Brown, Antonio PIT  WR $15,666,667 1 87.2
WR Baldwin, Doug SEA  WR $312,500 50 41.8
TE Harbor, Clay JAC  TE $312,500 22 10.6
PK Tucker, Justin BAL  PK $1,000,000 2 70.3
DST Team Defense, DET  DST $406,250 2 41.4
FLEX Bell, Joique DET  RB $9,000,000 27 71.4
FLEX Hopkins, DeAndre HOU WR $11,000,000 17 58.2

Bench

SLOT PLAYER POS Salary PRK START %
QB Cutler, Jay CHI  QB $5,000,000 5 46.5
QB Stafford, Matthew DET  QB $4,900,000 11 60.1
RB Ivory, Chris NYJ  RB $3,000,000 12 50.9
RB Vereen, Shane NE  RB $9,400,000 17 67.0
WR Robinson, Allen JAC  WR $804,659 31 24.2
WR Wright, Kendall TEN  WR $6,000,000 29 46.2
WR Evans, Mike TB  WR $5,453,058 53 27.8
TE Rudolph, Kyle MIN  TE $1,760,000 44 5.1
PK Hauschka, Steven SEA  PK $500,000 17 44.7
DST Team Defense, ARI DST $1,000,000 11 37.0

 

I’ve always sucked at auction drafts.

I love the idea of being able to pick any possible combination of players, and not being bound to rounds or any other set picking order. But I always wind up making a huge mistake or getting impatient during an auction draft, and it burns me.

This isn’t something I’m proud of admitting, but it’s true. But even after making a pretty big mistake in the numberFire Reality Sports Online auction draft, I’m sitting pretty atop the league as the lone undefeated.

Let’s get the bad news out of the way first. On draft day, I overspent at the quarterback position. I’m a pretty firm believer in the “Late Round QB” method for drafting, and feel as though QB is a very deep and replaceable position. But when Matthew Stafford went as cheap as he did, I had to pick him up.

However, I said the same thing about Jay Cutler, and wound up with both NFC North quarterbacks on my roster. Combined with Teddy Bridgewater, who I got via the rookie draft, I now had more QB assets than I could ever need in a league with only 10 teams.

Now for the good news: I was able to follow my strategy for this league perfectly on auction day, apart from the error at quarterback. My plan was to invest my multi-year contracts on players that are likely to maintain value over the long-haul, while using two-year deals to soften the cap blow for my big ticket players.

The two-year deals given to DeMarco Murray and Jamaal Charles allowed me to roster both of these “first-round” backs at reasonable costs, while long-term deals with Shane Vereen and Antonio Brown provide volume in the passing game at two positions over the next three years.

My four-year contract went to Kyle Rudolph at an obscenely low price, but Clay Harbor has been filling in for the Vikings tight end due to injury.

Cheap pickups like Chris Ivory and free agents like Doug Baldwin have also played a role in my rise to the top of this league, but building a solid foundation of backs and receivers (who I have locked up for the next year, at least) was the plan all along.

It feels weird to even discuss my strategy for this league as if it’s a blueprint for success, because had my running back money gone to Adrian Peterson instead of DeMarco Murray, or my wide receiver money gone to A.J. Green instead of Antonio Brown, I wouldn’t be undefeated right now.

The real path to success, especially in a league that ties you to your players with a contract mechanic like Reality Sports Online, is to have a combination of luck and planning. Lay out a plan to get out of bad decisions, and hope for the best when investing heavily in a great player.

My decision to sign Rudolph long-term was based on my reluctance to use a four-year deal on any player I’d have to pay a good chunk of my cap to. I was protecting myself from myself by going with youth and upside with a longer contract. I could have signed Charles to a three or four year deal for less money, but that would lock me into a contract with a running back with an injury history.

Even if you think you’re going to make all the right moves, take a moment to consider how you could get out of those decisions if everything falls apart. Plan for the future, play devil’s advocate with your own picks, and get a little lucky… that’s how you can wind up at the top of a Reality Sports Online league against a bunch of your nerdy, fantasy football loving friends.