The Watch List: Week 12

Updated: November 16th 2017

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the storylines, players and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my weekly picks, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout the season as The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year. 

Storylines to Watch

  • Heisman Update:  Saquon Barkley is still my 1.01 fantasy draft pick but he’s no longer my Heisman favorite.  That honor now goes to Baker Mayfield.  Last week, I said that if Barkley’s 96 total yard game was the worst of his season that the award would be his.  Instead of coming out strong against Rutgers, he struggled and totaled just 55 yards (albeit with two scores).  Mayfield is just so on fire lately that it probably doesn’t matter what Barkley or Bryce Love do down the stretch.  Since his loss to Iowa State, Mayfield is averaging 384.8 yards per game and has 16 TDs to just 4 INTs.  The Heisman is his to lose.
  • CFP Playoff Picture:  The newest CFP rankings went about as expected.  Georgia and Notre Dame fell far after big losses to Top 10 opponents.  Meanwhile the teams that beat them, Miami and Auburn, jumped up a number of spots.  I was a bit surprised to see Wisconsin at #5.  Their strength of schedule is weak and is only slightly redeemed if they win out and beat Ohio State in the Big Ten Championship.  Before this ranking, I did not think that an undefeated Wisconsin would rank over a one-loss Georgia but the committee disagreed.  I think this is their signal that if Wisconsin wins out, they are in, strength of schedule be damned (keep in mind one of Miami and Clemson have to lose and fall out of the Top 4).  Want to play around with the many permutations?  Check out FiveThirtyEight’s prediction module.
  • Why You Should Care About the FCS:  I won’t lie, I don’t usually pay attention to the FCS until their playoffs start.  I am a bit ahead of the game this season since I’ve done some research on a few FCS prospects but still, my FCS knowledge is basic at best.  That being said, the FCS deserves our attention for the rest of the season.  The FCS playoff is compelling television and there will be a number of 2018 NFL Draft prospects playing in those playoff games.  There are two fantasy relevant players who came out of the FCS this season: Rams WR Cooper Kupp and Bears RB Tarik Cohen.  A few other less familiar but potentially relevant names include: Patriots DE Derek Rivers, 49ers WR Kendrick Bourne, Cardinals WR Chad Williams and Broncos RB D’Angelo Henderson.  The first-round playoff games will be played on Saturday November 25th but you can safely ignore those games and wait for the second-round on December 2nd which will include the top eight teams who received byes.  The top predicted teams per HeroSports.com are James Madison, North Dakota State, Central Arkansas, Jacksonville State, South Dakota State, Wofford, Southern Utah, Western Illinois, Sam Houston State, North Carolina A&T and Grambling.  If you’re looking to keep up with FCS stats and information, quality sites are hard to find.  A few I have bookmarked include HeroSports.com and FCS.football.  FOX Sports also has game logs and season stats for all FCS players which is sometimes like finding a needle in a haystack.  If you want to find some of these games live, check the WatchESPN app which airs many live and keeps them available for replay for about a week.

Players to Watch (FCS Edition)

  • Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State:  If Dallas Goedert’s name sounds familiar, it’s probably because I had included him in my early 2018 positional rankings where he came in at TE7.  I watched two games of Goedert’s 2016 film, against TCU and North Dakota State, and was very impressed.  Goedert has good size at 6’4″ 260lbs and uses it to his advantage on contested passes across the middle of the field.  His route running does not appear to be the most sophisticated but he was able to get himself open on a number of drags and crosses; near the red zone his route running is less of a factor anyway as he can easily high point the ball over smaller defenders.  The film against TCU was only composed of his passing targets so I did not see any blocking but what I saw of him blocking against NDSU was very good.  He’s probably the best, or second best to Hayden Hurst, blocking TE I have studied so far this season.  There was one sequence that made me laugh and feel sorry for Goedert.  On the first play, Goedert seemingly catches a tipped ball after landing flat on his back after being hit high to the helmet (a targeting penalty was called).  It was called incomplete although to my eye it looked good.  On the next play, Goedert ran a skinny post and caught the touchdown over a defender only to have it called back for a penalty.  On the third play, he runs a shallow crossing route left-to-right, catches the ball in open space but is tackled well a yard short of the first down and two yards short of the goal line (he probably should have ran his route a little deeper).  The next play was fourth down and I’m not sure if they went for it or kicked a field goal because the tape doesn’t show the play but they did come away empty handed.  The tape is backed up by his production: Goedert’s 2017 line is solid at 49-849-5 and 2016 was even better at 92-1,293-11.  Ultimately, I may have to revise my TE rankings and push Goedert up a bit, he’s going to be a factor in the near future for RSO owners.
  • Jake Wieneke, WR, South Dakota State:  Wieneke is another Jackrabbit that should be on your 2018 NFL Draft radar.  Wieneke has a streak of three consecutive seasons with 70+ receptions, 1,300+ yards and 11+ TDs.  That’s impressive.  He’s well off the marks so far through ten games this year but there is still time if they make a playoff run.  Wieneke is 6’4″ 215lbs and is projected to run a 4.59 by NFLDraftScout.com.  Pie in the sky comps at those measureables would be Michael Thomas and Allen Robinson.  Let’s temper expectations though as only 8 of the 19 size/speed comps I looked at were actually drafted; ironically 5 of the 8 were 1st or 2nd rounders so it seems to be real boom or bust for some reason for this group.  I also watched tape of Wieneke against TCU from last season.  I honestly think he has a chance to beat that 4.59 estimate as there were three plays where he just simply beat the defender with his speed, two of which went for a score.  There were a number of positive routes that I noted where he used either a hesitation move or a sharp jab step to change direction and fool the defender.  The film I watched only featured his targets so unfortunately I don’t have any notes on his run blocking.  An article I read while researching Wieneke brought up a great point about him, one that will be a selling point to scouts: his “catch radius.”  He’s long and athletic which lets him play even beyond his 6’4″ frame.  Like with Goedert, I came away from my study of Wieneke with positive thoughts and will have to find a spot for him in my WR rankings going forward.
  • Chase Edmonds, RB, Fordham:  Edmonds caught my eye when he played Army earlier this season.  Unfortunately, his season has been disjointed due to injury.  A good sign was that Edmonds returned from injury last week and totaled 109 yards and 2 TDs against Holy Cross.  It’s easy to forget the recent injury struggles when you look at Edmonds annual stats.  He dominated in his first three seasons.  Over those seasons, Edmonds averaged 1,761 yards, 21 rushing TDs, 25 receptions, 258 receiving yards and 2 receiving TDs.  Fordham is struggling this season (they have 6 losses already while totaling just 9 losses in Edmonds’ first three years) and whether that is the cause or effect of Edmonds’ struggles I don’t know.  Edmonds has four career games against FBS opponents (coincidentally all against either Army or Navy) and in those games he’s averaged 131 total yards and a score; that average does include a huge game in 2015 which skews the average but it counts nonetheless.  I re-watched Edmonds play against Army and was encouraged by what I saw on film prior to his injuries.  Edmonds shows good change of direction and balance but I did notice a tendency to run left (possibly a factor of where the strength of the OL lies).  He has good hands and ball tracking skills out of the backfield which he showed twice, once on a bad snap that was popped into the air and once on a tipped pass.  I’d say he was above average in pass protection.  There was one major whiff in protection but a number of good blocks.  I’m interested in seeing film of Edmonds post-injury to see if his cutting and speed are impacted at all.
  • Jeremiah Briscoe, QB, Sam Houston State:  Briscoe is a former UAB player who transferred to Sam Houston State when the Blazers football program was cut.  Briscoe has average size at 6’3″ 225lbs (similar to AJ McCarron).  He has a lot of experience (43 career games) but is an old prospect at 24.  I can’t really explain why, but when I watched his film against Incarnate Word from 2016, I thought of Dak Prescott.  He’s a little lighter than Dak and not nearly as athletic so I don’t know why I thought it but my brain kept flashing to Dak.  Briscoe’s stats in 2016 were stellar: 4,602 yards, 57 TDs and 10 INTs.  2017 has been less kind: 3,429-32-10.  His completion percentage is also down from 62.6% to 55.7%.  The film I watched of Briscoe was of horrible quality so I’m not putting much stock into it but it was clear that there were a number of inaccurate throws.  I also noted that he has an odd-looking throwing motion.  I likened it to a pitcher throwing from the stretch with a runner on base, meaning that his motion seems to be shortened and rushed.  I used the term “short arm” in my notes which isn’t a great sign for a QB prospect.  Briscoe is not a rushing threat so a change of position is not a possibility for him to increase his draft stock.  The fact that Briscoe started his career as an FBS player and that he put up 57 TDs in a season mean he should get consideration but he’s more like a training camp arm than anything else.
  • Bryan Schor, QB, James Madison:  Schor is a two year starter for #1 James Madison (10-0).  JMU won the FCS championship with Schor at the helm.  He is efficient but unspectacular, as evidenced by his championship game performance: 7 of 12, 112 yards, 2 TDs and 0 INTs.  In addition to being an efficient passer, Schor is also a rushing threat who has at least 7 carries in each game this season.  His per carry average in 2017 is just 2.1 but was 4.5 in 2016; in 2016 he ran for 569 yards and 10 TDs but just 192-3 this season.  Schor’s height is okay at 6’2″ but he’s too light at 213lbs to be a dual threat QB in the pros.  The fact that Schor plays for the #1 team in the FCS probably raises his stock higher than it should be based off his abilities.  I didn’t see enough in my statistical research to warrant a more in depth look so put his name on the back burner for now until after the season.
  • Damon Gibson, WR, Minnesota State University – Moorhead:  Gibson plays in Division 2, not the FCS, but I decided to include him here.  I love a good deep dive on prospects but I’m definitely not planning a D2 article anytime soon!  Gibson has elite size if he measures in as advertised: 6’4″ 236lbs.  Per his Hudl.com profile, his 40 yard dash clocks in at 4.58.  That size and speed combination nets him a short list of comps, namely Devin Funchess and Mike Evans (who was an inch taller but a few pounds lighter).  Gibson caught 90 balls in 2016 for 1,549 yards and 17 TDs (17.21 yards per catch).  His stats in 2017 aren’t as eye-popping but they are still solid: 54-649-3-12.02.  Gibson earned a nomination for the Harlon Hill award in 2016 (the D2 Heisman equivalent).  I watched some of Gibson’s target montage posted to his Hudl.com profile and it’s immediately obvious that he was a man among boys at the D2 level.  Since he’s a standout at the D2 level, he could factor in at the 2018 draft because of his measureables.  Let’s see if he gets a combine invite and what he makes of it.

Games to Watch

  • Wofford at South Carolina, 4:00pm Saturday on SEC Network:  We have five FCS vs FBS matchups this weekend which feels like a lot for Week 12.  FCS #7 Wofford is the best candidate for an upset.  They are 9-1 and focus heavily on the rush (they have three 500+ yard rushers and their QB is averaging just 5.8 completions per game).  The other cross-division matchups are: Mercer at #1 Alabama; Delaware State at Florida State; Citadel at #2 Clemson; Western Carolina at North Carolina.
  • #24 Michigan at #5 Wisconsin, 12:00pm Saturday on FOX:  This is the only Top 25 matchup of the weekend, so enjoy.  I’m a Michigan fan and honestly I would be okay with the Wolverines losing at Camp Randall in the best interest of the conference.  I’d rather see a 13-0 Wisconsin force the committee’s hand than see a 2- or 3-loss Big Ten champion.  Both teams feature strong running games.  Wisconsin is led by freshman Jonathan Taylor (1,525-12) while Michigan has a three-headed monster featuring Karan Higdon (854-10), Chris Evans (569-6) and Ty Isaac (548-2).
  • #15 UCF at Temple, 12:00pm Saturday on ESPNU:  Finding great games this week is tough.  #1 and #2 play FCS opponents while the rest of the Top 10, minus Wisconsin, play significantly weaker opponents.  I decided to highlight UCF’s game against Temple because it probably has the biggest bowl implication as UCF needs to win out to get a New Year’s Six berth.  If UCF loses, it will be an interesting decision for the committee as to who should be ranked higher, UCF or Memphis.  UCF beat Memphis 40-13 earlier in the season but Memphis has been on a roll since then trying to outduel UCF, scoring 239 total points in those five games since.  UCF is led by QB McKenzie Milton who has tossed for 2,720 yards, 22 TDs and 5 INTs.  Their rushing attack is strong too.  The leading rushers are Milton and RB Adrian Killins but the love is spread around (seven different players have 2+ rushing TDs and six have 100+ rushing yards).  UCF is 37th in rushing yards per game but 6th in rushing TDs per game, go figure.  Luckily for the Golden Knights, Temple has the 77th ranked rush defense.

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch.  If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen.  I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability.  If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents.  Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
  • Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

A Comprehensive Guide to Extension Decisions

Updated: September 27th 2017

With a ground-breaking extension feature getting rolled out next week (for more details from the league office, take a look here) Reality Sports Online GMs have been scurrying around for inside information like the Duke brothers seeking out the Frozen Concentrated O.J. insider crop harvest report in Trading Places. While this article may not have much about the “secret sauce” that factors into what offer your expiring players are receiving from Weeks 5 to 13 this season, treat this as a comprehensive strategic approach to making contract extension decisions.

These are my opinions and advice based on the information I have about extensions. Just like you, I’m not swimming in insider information. I have, however, put a lot of thought into devising the methodology to approach this decision with. Feel free to use these thoughts, critique them, ignore them and question them on Twitter . Either way, remember that the RSO guys have created something innovative based on the Moneyball mindset that may require a few kinks to be worked out early on. So if you encounter any type of issues, please be kind and patient (and refrain from social media negging) because this platform is infinitely better than what you were playing before and I’m saying that as a customer.

As a disclaimer, I’m not certain I’ll be using my one league voted in-season extension this season as I tend to be a free-market guy who would prefer to see what is going on in the auction. Being somewhat conservative, I haven’t yet been saddled with many “bad contracts” in my leagues that I haven’t been able to get out of, and ultimately that’s the biggest risk an owner faces with these extensions. The biggest risk the RSO guys face with extensions is actually the polar opposite-having the algorithm spit out too kind of a deal for extensions. Remember that when you see your initial offers.

  1. The Airline Ticket Purchase Analogy– When you are looking at taking a trip and booking flights, you don’t keep searching prices after you’ve already purchased the ticket. Likewise, you don’t get on the plane and ask the person sitting next to you how much they paid for their ticket.

So, in similar fashion, if you have extensions enabled in your league and you like the price/years offered for an expiring player the first week it is offered (note that only your team can see the offers your player is getting on your team page) and have the requisite cap space in future years to do it, pull the trigger and don’t look back.

Also, with the “everything is an asset” in an RSO league caveat-if you as an owner are transparent about what your player offers are to other owners, you may be able to work out a favorable trade with them.

  1. What’s Your Benchmark?- Since the only other viable extension opportunity for you is the franchise tag, that is a number you are now forced to know like the back of your hand for every position you have on your roster. If you haven’t calculated the Top 5 positional average for players in your league under contract for 2018 yet, you are already behind. If you are behind, don’t worry, it is not hard to calculate that average by position.

Remember, that the franchise tag for your player by position is the HIGHER of the Top 5 positional average or 120% of your current year salary for that player. The franchise tag does have a term limit of being used twice and obviously has a multiplier effect of 120% if you’ve used it once already.

That said, you should always be comparing your annual average value of your extension offer to your franchise tag cost for the upcoming year. If the extension offer is cheaper for the player of need, that may be an indication that you want to extend that player.

I’ll predict that with potentially high extension price tags and future increases to auction prices (see #3) that the franchise tag will be a more strategically used asset across leagues in the future.

  1. Predicting Future Auction Prices- I’m saying this for those who have been on the RSO platform for a short period of time where the talent in free agency hasn’t turned over much in leagues due to rookie contracts not expiring, etc. Just like you have certain expectations of what someone should cost prior to the auction via your prep, the real auction takes twists and turns and gets more unpredictable as players like Antonio Brown and Rob Gronkowski become free agents for the first time in your leagues. Add that into a dynamic market where several teams are coming into the auction with significant ($100m +) cap space and you get scenarios like my main league where Brown went on a huge contract for 4 years, $243.5m.

Then, when a few players trickle back into the auction and teams have bountiful cap space, you see overpayments being made for players who don’t deserve as much as they are getting. That’s where your perception of where future auction prices are headed can benefit you in looking at extending players. I’ll talk about this more in a bit, but it really is about getting over the initial “sticker shock” of the extension offers.

  1. Sticker Shock and What To Do With It- When you’ve paid a rookie that you sneakily drafted early in Round 2 of your 2014 rookie draft like I did with Devonta Freeman around $1.5m a year for four years, any contract extension offer is going to seem astronomical. Don’t let it be. Of course, Freeman’s rookie contract is well under market value and his extension offer may be more than what you perceive market value to be. Likely, it will fall somewhere in between.

So you’ll likely need to “check down” against what someone like Freeman’s franchise tag # would be in 2018 (of course that’s the summer vs. an in season extension). This is exactly what I’m going to do in Week 5 when the initial offers come out.

Here is an inside look at a spreadsheet I use in my main league to look into future use of franchise tags and extensions. If you don’t have a template like this, you don’t have to be an Excel whiz to set one up. Note that my calculation for Freeman’s tag is based on the Top 5 positional average for running backs. I’ll try to explain more about Allen Robinson later as I’ve already been approached by one owner who is trying to figure out what to do with him this season (NOTE: I have not seen any offers for Robinson and just put these salaries in as a placeholder that may not be realistic).

  1. Players with Small Sample Size (Rookies and Breakouts)

For current rookies or players without much history on their side that have performed well thus far this season, the algorithm has a very small sample size and the offers are likely to be outside of your comfort zone. If you think that someone like Tarik Cohen has league star written all over him, feel free to accept the offer coming his way. I personally would lean on a larger sample size and take my chances in an auction, but one thing you have that the others in your league don’t is current control over that player.

  1. Age Matters

From what I gather, age of player is a definite component of the algorithm that determines extension values and contract lengths being offered. If you’ve seen players like Brandon Marshall fail to separate from DB’s lately, you’ll know that you don’t want to give too many years or dollars to someone on the backside of their career.

At the same time, consider some pivotal ages for your wide receivers and running backs. I typically would view 33 year-old receivers as one year guys with few exceptions (this is when a player like Andre Johnson experienced his decline). In terms of running backs, I’m not giving any running back over the age of 27 more than two years. If you’ve noticed the running back leaders this season in fantasy points, you’ll see that rookie running backs and guys like Todd Gurley and Freeman sit atop the board and they are all 25 and under.

I know there are exceptions to every rule/player, but remember you are in essence via the extension bidding against yourself here and not the market.

  1. I’m All About Value

With likely high prices across the board for extension players, to hit a home run on one, you’re likely to be taking on significant risk or finding value in the marketplace. With that, I think creativity is important and that would include taking a look at players who were already injured this season and are out for the season. Guys like Cam Meredith and the aforementioned Robinson. Let’s dig deeper on Robinson since I’m facing this very decision.

The good: he doesn’t turn 25 until next August, has a monster season under his belt that was two years ago (80-1,400-14), already had surgery a day after his ACL injury with no other structural damage and is a potential real-life NFL free agent this offseason.  He also has no other NFL injury history. His 2017 stats were 1 catch for 17 yards before his unfortunate injury.

The negatives other than the fact that he was injured include his quarterback Blake Bortles not being able to optimize his talents, his 2016 stats being a down year (73-883-6), his Jacksonville Jaguars head coach being uber-focused on the running game, and this injury.

However, from an extension standpoint, there may be an opportunity to arbitrage here as most of Robinson’s negatives can be viewed as positives from an extension standpoint.

Taking into account that Robinson hasn’t produced at an elite level in two years would seem to mean that you could be getting him at an extension number that shows there’s future uncertainty in his outcomes. Yet, Robinson figures to be back playing for the start of the 2018 season and potentially on a new team (or with a new QB other than Bortles). He could be on a “one year prove it deal” with Jacksonville or elsewhere and based on his size, speed and skills, should be able to get back to being a top 20 wide receiver.

So taking into account the likely lack of fluctuation in his weekly offers due to his 2017 being over, his subpar 2016, and some future uncertainty, you may be able to get Robinson for way less than if he was coming off of an all-pro season. Additionally, since you can extend players who occupy your injured reserve space, you can get the benefit of not having to occupy a valuable 2017 roster spot with Robinson.

Not sure what the offers will be for Robinson, but I think anything over $20m a year starts to get me out of my comfort zone based on the fact that much of his uncertainty won’t clear up until the offseason and you have to decide by Week 13 what you are doing with him.

Other than injured players, you may want to look a mid-tier tight ends for potential extension value as well as the position is typically viewed as having less skill.

OK, folks, hopefully this methodology guide on how to approach extension decisions will be helpful to you this season and down the line. Remember, you don’t have to use the extension, so make the decision that best works for your team’s current and future success.


Matt Goodwin is in his fourth season as senior writer for Reality Sports Online and is in year five of his main league. He also contributed for numberFire for several years. He is an avid sports fan from Cleveland, Ohio who would count a Cleveland Indians World Series victory a close second behind getting married to his wife Renee and the births of his children, Jory (7 year old son) and Lainie (3 year old daughter). Matt loves mid 90’s hip-hop, playing pick-up hoops, traveling, Ohio State football and Arizona basketball, watching Glengarry Glen Ross for the millionth time and being outside the few months it doesn’t rain in Seattle where he lives. He can be found on Twitter @mattgoody2 and hopes you continue to read his In the Zone articles and take his side when he’s debating player value with @RobertFCowper.

Week 2 Waiver Report

Updated: September 12th 2017

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 50% of RSO league that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer 1 player that is owned in <10% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

Tarik Cohen, RB – CHI (owned 45%) 5 Car/66 yards, 8 Rec/47 yards, 1 TD

Surely the biggest surprise of the week 1 was how much rookie runner Tarik Cohen was involved in the Bears’ offense. Yes, he did have 40% of his total yards on one big reverse field run play but overall he was heavily involved in the passing game with 8 catches on 12 targets (led team) and almost led the Bears to an upset win over the reigning NFC Champs. It’s not like Jordan Howard wasn’t involved (13-51-1) as he also had 3 catches but this could definitely decrease Howard’s role on passing downs. The Bears look like they could be joining the rest of the NFL on the RBBC bus now. For owners that think the Bears will be down in games and forced into passing formations, Cohen should see his share of targets each week, especially with news that Kevin White is being placed on IR now with a scapula injury. Give a bump in PPR leagues.

Suggested Bid: $1,00,000 – $4,000,000

RB Replacements

Shane Vereen, RB – NYG (owned 45%) 9 Rec/51 yards

Javorius Allen, RB – BAL (owned 19%) 21 Car/71 yards

Both of these running backs benefited from positive game script in week 1 but they did showcase what their role is in their respective offenses. For Vereen, he had 9 catches (5 on the final meaningless drive) but he was clearly the Giants passing down back. Perkins and Darkwa couldn’t get any run game going (36 yards) and the offensive line looked mediocre at best. If the Giants offense is unable to open holes for the running game they will be forced to use the dump passes as a substitute. This was the role Vereen had in New England and as long as he stays healthy it’s the role he will have this season in New York. With games against the AFC and NFC West, it’s probable that the Giants find themselves behind in games, unable to run the ball and relying on Vereen with screens and dump passes to keep the offense moving.

Javorius “Buck” Allen had 21 carries, 4th most in the opening week against the Bengals which should symbolize a bell cow role in an offense. Unfortunately, fellow back Terrance West also had 19 carries (7th most) and Joe Flacco only had 17 pass attempts in a total defensive domination by the Ravens. With Danny Woodhead going out with a hamstring injury early it did show, however, that Allen will be the secondary runner in case of a West injury or regression. This makes him an add if you have either of the other two Raven runners or a lack of depth at the position. Depending on the severity of the injury to Woodhead the Ravens do need to show which of West or Allen would be the pass catching back when games are closer. This could be Allen’s role with the upside of increased carries should West falter.

Suggested Bids: $500,000 – $1,000,000

WR Replacements

Jermaine Kearse, WR – NYJ (owned 26%) 7 Rec/59 yards

Danny Amendola, WR – NE (owned 26%) 6 Rec/ 100 yards

Many were shocked when the Jets shipped Sheldon Richardson to Seattle for some picks and Jermaine Kearse but to everyone’s surprise, Kearse led the Jets in both catches (7) and yards (59) in week 1. Sometimes volume trumps talent and despite previous reservations against Kearse’s talent when he is being fed #1 target numbers he has to be rostered. If Kearse maintains the target volume that he saw in week 1 and can offer a touchdown every 2 or 3 games he will be a nice option to have for bye weeks or when injuries start piling up.

The Patriots looked like a 16-0 team for the first half and a 0-16 team for the second half. It showed that they missed having Julian Edelman as a reliable target for crossing routes, bubble screens and 3rd down quick slants. Brandin Cooks and Chris Hogan were used more on the play action and deeper routes which leaves Danny Amendola and the RBs to be the underneath pass catchers. It’s unlikely that any of the backs are available but Amendola is available in 74% of RSO leagues which needs to be changed. The Patriots are changing offensive schemes weekly but the one constant for Tom Brady is to find the quick-hit routes to move the chains. Despite Bill Belichick saying that everyone will be picking up Edelman’s contributions, it is likely Amendola who will most replicate his usage.

Suggested Bids: $1,000,000 – $2,000,000

TE Substitute

Charles Clay, TE – BUF (owned 40%) 4 Rec/53 yards, 1 TD

Similar to my Jermaine Kearse analysis sometimes a guy just needs to be rostered for his volume alone. The Bills lost Robert Woods and Sammy Watkins to the Rams this offseason and Jordan Matthews hasn’t been a spectacular fantasy option since his rookie season. While they do have Shady McCoy to run the ball someone still needs to catch passes and touchdowns. Clay should be averaging a touchdown at least every other game this season and be a reliable target for Tyrod Taylor to have between the 20s and on 3rd down. While he’s not as sexy a name as Gronk or Kelce, Clay should be a low-end TE1 for most matchups this season.

Suggested Bid: $500,000 – $1,500,000

Sleeper Add (<10%)

Kerwynn Williams, RB – ARZ (Owned 9.7%) 5 Car/10 yards, 1 Rec/2 yards, 1 TD

This is pure speculation and may have no use by the end of the week but anytime a bell cow is injured you have to take a shot in the dark. When David Johnson went out after a big hit in the 3rd quarter it was Williams who took the goal line carry for a touchdown. After Johnson went out indefinitely with a wrist injury later in the game it was Williams who played the bulk of the snaps behind Carson Palmer. If Johnson’s injury is anything that keeps him out of next week’s game and beyond (which is a real possibility if reports are true) Williams will see his share of touches and targets. If you are playing the David Johnson owner and his RB depth is thin Williams is worth a minimum bid just to limit your opponent’s options heading into week 2.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

2017 RSO Rookie Mock Draft v3.0

Updated: August 23rd 2017

This August update was the hardest mock I have done so far for RSO (including my first 2018 mock which is yet to be published).  It’s easy to fall into the trap of weighting preseason action too heavily so I tried to fight that urge as much as .  I’m sure you will disagree with a number of these picks and I’d like to hear about it @robertfcowper on Twitter.  Please note, I am writing this before the third week of preseason games which is typically when we see the most “realistic” preseason football and you’ll likely be reading it during or after those games.

1.01 – LEONARD FOURNETTE, RB, JAGUARS
1.02 – COREY DAVIS, WR, TITANS
1.03 – CHRISTIAN MCCAFFREY, RB, PANTHERS

I’ve had Fournette and Davis as my 1.01 and 1.02, in that order, from the beginning and don’t plan to change them now. Fournette’s value may be negatively impacted by QB Blake Bortles if he continues to struggle like he has so far in the preseason and Davis’s injury hurts his immediate value slightly. Neither falls behind McCaffrey for me, but McCaffrey’s solid preseason work pushes him into a close third in my first tier. If you need a RB over WR, I wouldn’t fault you for getting caught up in the CMC hype at 1.02.

1.04 – DALVIN COOK, RB, VIKINGS
1.05 – JOE MIXON, RB, BENGALS

In addition to moving McCaffrey out of this tier, I decided to flip-flop Cook and Mixon. Mixon may end up with the more productive career over time but on RSO we are drafting for more immediate production as rookie contracts are only three or four years long. Cook has an easier route to RB1 touches with Latavius Murray in front of him rather than Mixon who has Jeremy Hill and Gio Bernard to battle.

1.06 – ZAY JONES, WR, BILLS

I was high on Zay previously having him at 1.10 but since July his stock has risen due to personnel moves in Buffalo. Sammy Watkins was traded, Jordan Matthews was acquired and Anquan Boldin signed and promptly retired. Ultimately that’s a net positive for Jones. The Bills won’t be great, but neither was East Carolina.

1.07 – OJ HOWARD, TE, BUCS

Howard stays the course here at 1.07. I haven’t seen or heard anything that encourages me to move him up or down yet.  Don’t forget to grab Cameron Brate too because like most rookie TEs he will need time to develop.

1.08 – KAREEM HUNT, RB, CHIEFS
1.09 – D’ONTA FOREMAN, RB, TEXANS

Foreman has had better success so far during the preseason but I think Hunt has a higher ceiling for the near future. Even if Hunt can’t beat out Spencer Ware for the starting role, he will have value in the passing game. Foreman could see short yardage work so a line of 350 yards but 6-7 TDs wouldn’t be surprising. I originally put players like David Njoku and John Ross ahead these two because of their upside but I’m leaning more towards the sure thing as we get closer to the season.

1.10 – MIKE WILLIAMS, WR, CHARGERS

In true dynasty formats, Williams should not fall this far. However, in our RSO format, there’s a good chance you lose out on 20-30% of Williams’ rookie contract due to his current injuries. His ceiling is higher than that of Jones, Howard, Hunt and Foreman but his floor is lower.

2.01 – ALVIN KAMARA, RB, SAINTS

I’ve hated on Kamara a lot. It’s time to move him up my list though. So far this preseason he has just nine carries but they have been very productive. He has a 50 yard TD carry and 96 total yards; even if you remove the long carry, Kamara still averages 5.75 yards per carry on his other carries. He’ll also be a factor in the passing game, which like with Hunt, will allow him to offer some value as a rookie even with limited carries.

2.02 – DAVID NJOKU, TE, BROWNS

The bloom might be off the rose for Njoku. A report from a few weeks ago showed coach Hue Jackson’s frustration at Njoku’s hands. Plus he suffered an ankle injury in Monday’s game against the Giants (too soon as of this writing to know if it’s serious). He’s still an athletic freak with high upside so he’s worth a speculative pick at the top of the second.

2.03 – JUJU SMITH-SCHUSTER, WR, STEELERS
2.04 – SAMAJE PERINE, RB, REDSKINS

JJSS has just one catch and one carry so far but battled a minor injury to start camp. Perine has 14 carries so far (plus one 29 yard catch). I have not heard any glowing camp reports about either guy so they are basically holding steady despite being on crowded depth charts.

2.05 – MITCHELL TRUBISKY, QB, BEARS
2.06 – PATRICK MAHOMES, QB, CHIEFS
2.07 – DESHAUN WATSON, QB, TEXANS

I’m hedging my bet by putting all three of these quarterbacks together at this point but I truly believe the value in RSO drafts is too good to pass up. To lock up these rising stars for three or four years on a cheap contract is just a huge advantage. Sure, the guy you take has to “hit” but that’s the case with all of these rookies. I am a huge Mahomes fan and am encouraged by his 73% completion percentage and 3 TDs so far but it’s hard to ignore how good Trubisky has looked too and he has a better chance of starting Week 1. Watson will likely win the starting job but I have not been a fan of his so I’d rather take Mahomes and wait.

2.08 – JOHN ROSS, WR, BENGALS
2.09 – EVAN ENGRAM, TE, GIANTS
2.10 – CURTIS SAMUEL, RB, PANTHERS

These three have fallen significantly in my eyes. Ross, no surprise, has been injured. 2.08 might be harsh for Ross but I won’t own any shares of him this season if I have to take him in the first. I’m still worried about Engram’s lack of size and whether he can earn enough snaps at WR behind OBJ, Marshall and Shepard (although recent injuries to those three could linger and open the door). Samuel is supposed to be a “jack of all trades” type but until I see him in action and that the Panther’s offense can support him and CMC, he’ll be a “master of none” for me.

3.01 – TAYWAN TAYLOR, WR, TITANS
3.02 – KENNY GOLLADAY, WR, LIONS
3.03 – COOPER KUPP, WR, RAMS
3.04 – CHRIS GODWIN, WR, BUCS
3.05 – DEDE WESTBROOK, WR, JAGUARS

This group of receivers was tough to sort and I made a number of changes before settling on this. Westbrook and Golladay join the mock based off the success they have had in limited action thus far this preaseason. Westbrook had a single catch for a 42 yard touchdown in his first game and followed that with 6-131. Golladay started strong with a 3-53-2 game against the Colts and fell to just one reception for six yards against the Jets. Westbrook has off-field concerns and is likely a terrible human being but if he can ignite a stagnant Jaguars offense he’ll get some looks. Golladay’s hype train is speeding out of the station with plenty of hangers-on but I’m not ready to push him that high in my rankings after four NFL receptions. The other three receivers were in my original mock: Taylor and Godwin down a few picks and Kupp moved up. I still believe in Taylor who has taken advantage of Corey Davis missing time in camp and in the preseason and has 7 for 97 yards; pushing the QBs higher means Taylor falls to the third through no fault of his own. Kupp has a 8-105-1 line through two games. Sammy Watkins coming to town kills any hope of Kupp being the lead target for Jared Goff but he should beat out Robert Woods, et al by midseason. I’m disappointed so far by Godwin who has caught just three of his six targets. I am still hopeful that all of the attention devoted to Mike Evans, DJax and OJ Howard mean Godwin will have sneaky production.

3.06 – MARLON MACK, RB, COLTS
3.07 – WAYNE GALLMAN, RB, GIANTS

Signing Christine Michael this offseason threw some cold water on my Mack ranking.  Why sign a journeyman like Michael to a crowded backfield after drafting Mack?  Michael ended up getting hurt and is out for the season, but Mack was banged up too and missed the start of the preseason. Frank Gore and Robert Turbin can carry the load to start the season so the Colts might take it slow with Mack. Encouragingly, he did have seven touches for 49 yards in his first game action. I’ve had a man crush on Gallman since I started researching the 2016 Clemson Tigers and I haven’t given it up yet, although I continue to drop Gallman down my mock draft (2.09 to 3.05 to 3.07). I don’t believe in Paul Perkins and I’m not sure the Giants do either since they have more draft capital invested in Gallman than Perkins.

3.08 – JAKE BUTT, TE, BRONCOS
3.09 – DESHONE KIZER, QB, BROWNS

The true value of these two players will come down to when they get on the field. I rank them here with the expectation that they will start a majority of the season for their teams. Butt would have been a first round NFL talent if he wasn’t injured – he’s good value here. This late in your rookie draft, Kizer represents good value too even if he’s just QB28 at the end of the season. I’d rather lock these guys up on cheap long-term contracts now before their value crests in my auction draft (if it’s announced that they will be starting Week 1) or in free agency (if they get on the field a little later).

3.10 – TARIK COHEN, RB, BEARS

Cohen has impressed in this first two weeks of the preseason. His size is worrisome (he’s just 5’6″ and 180lbs) but it hasn’t hindered him yet. Cohen leads rookie RBs in yards (181) and leads the Bears backs in attempts (18). His size will keep him from being a workhorse in the NFL but he will have a role. It’s interesting to note that the Bears invested a higher draft pick in Cohen (4th round) than Jordan Howard (5th), even after Howard’s great rookie season.


Note: When watching film for a player, I typically pick two games at random to watch.  If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen.  I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability.  If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents.  Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com
  • Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, ESPN’s First Draft podcast, draftek.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.