FA Expectancy: Kyle Shanahan

Updated: July 23rd 2017

Throughout the offseason, I will be preparing a collection of articles that will focus on free agents and trade candidates. The articles will discuss the player in question, and what the move does to their value, as well as what their landing spot means for their new and old teams.

Kyle Shanahan – HC, San Francisco 49ers

I want to take a different approach to my FA Expectancy than I normally do and look at new 49ers Head Coach Kyle Shanahan. More specifically, I want to see what type of coach he is and what his presence brings to the 49ers from an offensive standpoint. I also want to examine what his departure means for several high profile Falcons’ players.

A Team Saviour?

Shanahan began his coordinating career in Houston with the Texans from 2008 till 2010. His two seasons with the Texans he executed a balanced offense with 21 and 29 passing TDs to 16 and 13 rushing TDs respectively. In 2010 Shanahan was hired as the offensive coordinator underneath his recently unretired father, Mike, in Washington. For the first two seasons, they were a terrible offense. Led by Donovan McNabb (2010) and Rex Grossman (2011) they averaged only 18.5 points per game and failed to score 10 rushing TDs in either season. Then in 2012 Washington infamously traded for Robert Griffin III and the offense exploded around him and fellow rookie Alfred Morris. The Shanahan’s did an excellent job of keeping the offense simple and allowed both Griffin and Morris to control the game one the ground. The team finished with 22 rushing TDs (2nd overall) and averaged over 27 points per game, good for 4th overall.

Unfortunately, the offense took a step back in 2013 finishing average to below average in offensive statistics. This was likely due to the injury that Griffin suffered in the playoffs the season before as he became unable to execute the scramble drill that allowed the offense to make big, downfield plays. Both Kyle and his father were fired at the end of the season. Kyle became the offensive coordinator in Cleveland for the 2014 season and while awful in the passing game the team did have success running the ball, ranking 4th with 17 rushing TDs.

In 2015 Shanahan moved to join the newly hired Head Coach Dan Quinn in Atlanta. Quinn was the defensive coordinator of the Legion of Boom Seahawks that went to two Super Bowls and combining him with Shanahan was praised throughout the league. The team went through growing pains in their first season after starting off undefeated through the first month but failed to make the playoffs. Much like their record stated the offense was average with rankings of 21st in scoring, 23rd in passing and 13th in rushing. Then the offense exploded last season finishing top 3 in all three categories on their way to the team’s second Super Bowl appearance. The day after the Super Bowl Shanahan used his success to land the head coaching job in San Francisco, a team that was 27th in scoring in last season.

Having laid out his 8-year career as an offensive coordinator the below graphs show how Shanahan led offenses have done since 2008. For context, I have also listed the QB-WR-RB combo that led each team.

 

 

 

Kyle Shanahan Offensive Standings
YEAR Team SCORING S. RANK S. AVG PASSING P. RANK P. AVG RUSHING R. RANK R. AVG
2016 ATL 33.8 1 22.8 38 2T 24.6 20 3T 13.8
2015 ATL 21.2 21T 22.8 21 23T 26.3 13 13T 11.4
2014 CLE 18.7 27 22.6 12 32 25.2 17 4 11.9
2013 WAS 20.9 23 23.4 20 24 25.1 14 13T 12.8
2012 WAS 27.3 4 22.8 24 13T 23.7 22 2 12.5
2011 WAS 18 26 22.2 19 23 23.3 8 26 12.5
2010 WAS 18.9 25 22 21 22 23.5 9 24T 12.5
2009 HOU 24.3 10 21.5 29 5T 22.2 13 18 13.4
2008 HOU 22.9 17 22 21 13T 20.2 16 11T 14.9
AVG   22.9 17.1 22.5 22.8 17.4 23.8 14.7 12.7 12.9

 

Featured Starters
YEAR QB REC RB
2017 Brian Hoyer Pierre Garcon Carlos Hyde
2016 Matt Ryan Julio Jones Devonta Freeman
2015 Matt Ryan Julio Jones Devonta Freeman
2014 Brian Hoyer Andrew Hawkins Terrance West
2013 Robert Griffin III Pierre Garcon Alfred Morris
2012 Robert Griffin III Josh Morgan Alfred Morris
2011 Rex Grossman Jabar Gaffney Roy Helu
2010 Donovan McNabb Santana Moss Ryan Torain
2009 Matt Schaub Andre Johnson Steve Slaton
2008 Matt Schaub Andre Johnson Steve Slaton

 

Suffice to say that other than last year’s juggernaut Falcons and a magical season from a pair of rookies in 2013 his offenses have been pretty pedestrian. Matt Kelley of RotoUnderworld discussed how backward it is to assume that coaches who have had generational talents at a position are somehow going to make mid-tier to mediocre talent into fantasy stars. He even specifically talks about this infatuation with Kyle Shanahan and his Coach Klein-like advantage of motivating and play calling. If you want to listen to his full discuss you can find it here. Be warned that it does include some NSFW language.

What to Expect in San Francisco?

Football wise the 49ers were in complete shambles last season which is reflective in their two wins and 31st overall finish. Shanahan and new first-time General Manager John Lynch brought in veterans Brian Hoyer and Pierre Garcon, both of which Shanahan has worked with in the past, to have some stability in the passing game. I have already looked into the passing game in my Pierre Garcon article and discussed how Hoyer and Garcon can have appeal as low-cost options in 2017. Looking deeper into past seasons my 2017 prediction would be that the offense will fall somewhere between Shanahan’s 2013 Washington team and his 2014 Cleveland Browns. This would suggest that passing TDs would be hard to come by and therefore Garcon will need to rely heavily on collecting targets to hold WR3 value.

As we can see from above other than Matt Ryan the options at QB have been below average at best. This, along with the reputation his father had to turn any athlete with two legs into a 1,000-yard rusher, may be an indication as to why most Shanahan led offenses lean more heavily on the run. For those that are concerned that negative game script will force Shanahan to have to pass more frequently it has shown that even with mediocre teams Shanahan has always stuck with his running game. There is definitely fantasy appeal to having a Shanahan led backfield.

The question now becomes, “Who will be the primary back once the season opens”? They inherited Carlos Hyde who has been a workhorse back when healthy and also drafted Joe Williams in the 4th round. Apparently, Shanahan was adamant that the team take Williams for him to use in his offense. This has many thinking that Williams is the guy to own in San Francisco which has moved his rankings to the mid-second round in rookie drafts believing that his time will come sooner rather than later. But there has been news out of San Francisco that undrafted RB Matt Breida is looking better than Williams in practice and again Matt Kelley (in a separate discussion) mentioned back in May about how he was skeptical about Williams being ahead of Brieda on the depth chart come week 1. Have a listen here if you want the 3-minute conversation (again NSFW). Because of this for 2017 you want to stay the course with Carlos Hyde and try and acquire him from any panicky owners that don’t think he will return his usually RB2 value.

Will Atlanta suffer a Super hangover without Shanahan?

Other than Shanahan leaving the offense stays relatively the same. They still have Julio Jones who is top 3 of everybody’s receiver rankings. They still have Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman who make up one of the best 1-2 backfield combos in the league. And they still have Matt Ryan who is an ascending QB talent in the prime of his career. Regression probably is expected but that’s what happens when you have a record setting offense. Hopefully, not as bad as Cam Newton and Carolina last year but regression is expected nonetheless. Let’s be clear though that it won’t be because of Shanahan leaving. Remember that the team was middle of the road with Shanahan in his first season, statistically so we should expect the team to be somewhere between their mediocre 2015 season and their outstanding 2016 season.

If you are looking to acquire value from this team out of the previously mentioned players I would be trying to acquire Tevin Coleman. Devonta Freeman’s contract ends after this season and depending on what he is asking for it might be more economical if the Falcons let him go and draft another RB to pair with Coleman. This could open up the whole backfield in a strong offense to Coleman making his 2018 stock skyrocket. Worst case scenario Freeman signs a new contract and Coleman is in the same place he is now, a mid RB2 value in PPR leagues.

 

Make sure to continue to read more Free Agency Expectancy articles throughout the offseason to be prepared for your summer Auctions. Have a player that you want me to evaluate? Send me a message on Twitter @naandrews19.

2017 Top 25s: QBs and RBs

Updated: July 16th 2017

Since RSO has rolled over to 2017, now’s the perfect time to revisit your rosters and start planning for the next season!

Do you have any players on your team that warrant a franchise tag?  Is it time to shop a player who’s 2016 didn’t meet your expectations and now burdens you with a high salary contract?  My “way too early” PPR rankings, known as my 2017 Top 25s, are here to help with those decisions!

In part 1 of my 2017 Top 25s, I’ll explore the quarterback and running back positions:

 

Top 25 QBs for 2017

Aaron Rodgers is in a tier of his own, making him an elite asset in Superflex and 2QB leagues. Tony Romo and Jimmy Garoppolo are two of the most intriguing names on this list. Over the next few months, we should find out where they’ll play in 2017. If either lands in Denver or Houston, expect their values to rise even higher up this list.

Top 25 RBs for 2017

Le’Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, and David Johnson form the elite trio of RBs that should command the highest AAV (average annual value) of any players in free agency auctions. Rookies Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette could be RB1s in the right situation. Coming off major injuries, veteran RBs Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson just missed the top 25. If they appear healthy as the season approaches and have promised roles, both could be underrated RB2s that will be undervalued in many free agency auctions.

My recommendation

Take an hour this weekend and send out personal emails to all of your fellow owners. Get the trade conversations started because they likely won’t come knocking down your door to acquire one of these players you’re looking to vanquish from your roster. Explain what you’re looking to accomplish, who interests you on their team, and provide an idea of how a potential deal could be reached. If you’re in an active league, you’ll be surprised at the quality of responses you receive.

I followed this recommendation last year, revamped one of my teams almost from scratch, and ended up winning the league.  Have a few minutes?  Read my article on Pressing the Reset Button to find out more about how this strategy can work for you.


Bio: An avid fan of all things NFL, Dave has been playing fantasy football since 1999.  Though Dave participates in all types of fantasy football including redraft and daily, he prefers keeper and dynasty leagues as talent evaluation and scouting are integral components of each.  Follow him on Twitter @DaveSanders_RSO

Week 1: React to Overreact

Updated: September 14th 2016

What an exciting first week of football! There were a lot of surprises, both good and bad, in the fantasy community that have owners either patting themselves on the back or pulling out their hair. Tuesday after week 1 is one of the largest scrambles for the waiver wire in the year so I wanted to go over a collection of players that I felt needed to be talked about. Note that this is just the first week of the season and you shouldn’t be basing all your hard offseason work off of 60 minutes worth of football. Instead, evaluate your own team and its performance and be prepared to throw around some serious dollars. Let us begin.

Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego Chargers

Keenan AllenWhat a buzzkill this was. After an entire offseason that led many to believe Allen would return healthy and back to his WR1 form his knee gives out. Ending his season before the second half of game one, Allen owners are now left holding the bag with a big hole in their fantasy line-ups. It will be tough to say who on a game to game basis will immediately benefit from his absence. Danny Woodhead seems to have held off the doubters based on his performance and, along with Antonio Gates and Travis Benjamin, will have the first opportunities to increase their targets. Undrafted rookie Tyrell Williams looked good in the preseason and had two catches for 71 yards after Allen went out. With the other three likely being owned already Williams would likely be your immediate replace for Allen owners. Just don’t expect to see consistent fantasy results on a week to week basis.

Spencer Ware/Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Talk about feeding off of other’s misery. For Charles owners who were unable to handcuff Ware in the offseason, they were shedding tears at the near 200 total yard performance that he was able to put up in a thrilling come from behind win. Word is spreading that Charles may also be sitting a second week which leaves Ware owners foaming at the mouth. While there’s not much Charles owners can do at this point other than wait and see, it’s not time to panic just yet. Too often coaches ask players to come back before they are ready (i.e. Lynch, Dez, Romo, John Brown.) This just hurts the player’s value more by starting and subsequently leaving games early. Hopefully, Andy Reid is taking it slow with his star running back and he will be 100% healthy soon. When he does return though, it would be a surprise if he took the lion’s share back after Sunday’s performance by Ware.

Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills

Sammy WatkinsSpeaking of letting injuries heal, reports are surfacing that Sammy Watkins is still feeling pain in his surgically repaired foot which could be affecting his performance. It was suggested that the team could be shutting him down for a significant amount of time but those reports were quickly shot down and he is said to be ready to play on Thursday night. Still, we have seen what a receiver trying to play through a foot injury looks like, Dez in 2015 and A.J. Green in 2014, with unimpressive results. If Robert Woods isn’t already owned in your league I would definitely be picking him up and stashing him. Either way, it is hard to own Watkins at this point as he could be a major dud due a lackluster passing game and now his lingering injury. If you can move him for any other WR2 or a 2017 1st and a replacement receiver I would be getting out now.

Tevin Coleman/Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Tevin ColemanThis was an interesting turn of events with Coleman looking more efficient with his 32 snaps (117 total yards) than Freeman’s (40 yards) on 36 snaps. Dan Quinn has stated that he will continue to use the committee approach making all those who spent big offseason dollars acquiring Freeman very nervous. Even more nerve-racking was how efficient Coleman was in a receiving role (95 yards) which was assumed to Freeman’s role. After being a fantasy beast early last season Freeman’s big knock was his inefficiencies without volume down the stretch. With a healthy Coleman (who remember was handpicked by this coaching staff in last year’s draft) this could be an early candidate for the one year wonder RB.

Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers

Jeff Fisher*Cricket… Cricket…* that’s the sound of the second Monday night game as the Rams looked awful; being shut out by a team that many expected to win less than five games this season. While the Rams may not offer much in terms of startable fantasy players (except Gurley), you would like to see them put up at least something to build off of. Touted as the best prospect since Adrian Peterson, Gurley seems to have the same trajectory of having to play on a bad offense that doesn’t scare the defense from stacking the box unforgivingly. You can’t help but wonder how successfully he would be if he didn’t have Jeff Fisher holding him back.

As for San Francisco call me a doubter but I have seen this narrative play out before; in last year’s opening Monday night game in fact. The 49ers held Peterson and Vikings in check and started the season 1-0 only to win four of their next fifteen games. It was nice to see Hyde play well and score two touchdowns but it will take a few more games before I see anything on this offseason as a consistent fantasy play.

Maximizing Quarterback Value

Updated: March 17th 2016

The year of the breakout first or second year quarterback is over.  Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, and Derek Carr all took positive steps in 2015 that have created a buzz among their fan bases and fantasy owners alike.  Speaking purely in terms of their fantasy value, could the hype make these players overvalued in dynasty football?  We’ll examine further as we explore the 3 steps to maximizing quarterback value.

Step 1: Sell young quarterbacks who broke through in 2015  

QB Jameis Winston

Time to sell as Buccaneers’ QB Jameis    Winston’s stock has never been higher

Immediately upon reading that, you may recoil.  You may be asking yourself, “Why would I want to give up a young QB who appears to be on the track towards becoming useful in fantasy on a week to week basis?”  The answer is simple.  They’re worth more on the trade market than they are on your roster.  2015 was a breakout fantasy year for Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, and Derek Carr as many became serviceable plays in the right matchups.  The assumption among many in the fantasy community is that these players will continue on that positive trajectory.  However we’ve seen countless examples of quarterbacks showing promise, yet never quite making it to that tier of elite fantasy quarterbacks.  If we look back just seven months ago, Teddy Bridgewater and Ryan Tannehill were two of the hottest names in dynasty football.  Both were selected among the top 7 quarterbacks in start-up dynasty mock drafts according to Dynasty League Football’s August 2015 Average Draft Position data.  After having disappointing seasons, neither is drafted among the top 16 quarterbacks in DLF’s Feb 2016 ADP data.  Imagine if Bridgewater and Tannehill owners had a do-over.  Think they wish they’d cashed in on the buzz surrounding these quarterbacks entering the 2015 season?  Of course.  For every exception like Andrew Luck or Cam Newton, there are cautionary tails that failed to launch themselves into the elusive grouping of elite quarterbacks.

Step 2: Buy undervalued veteran quarterbacks outside of the elite tier and focus your most valuable resources towards wide receivers 

These types of quarterbacks are severely undervalued in many Reality Sports Online leagues, yet many were productive in 2015.  According to Fantasy Pros 2015 fantasy points per game datawhich uses settings similar to RSO’s standard scoring, Drew Brees ranked 4th place in points per game, Carson Palmer 6th, Andy Dalton 10th, Kirk Cousins 12th, Eli Manning 14th, Ryan Fitzpatrick 15th, and Philip Rivers 16th.  If the rest of your roster is strong, you certainly can build a championship team by acquiring one or two of these types of quarterbacks each year.  To take full advantage of this strategy, you’ll need to be aggressive in free agency and the trade market since you’ll be targeting these quarterbacks who are often and preferably on short-term deals.  

Instead of investing heavily in quarterbacks, my priority in RSO and standard dynasty leagues alike is to build my team around elite wide receivers.  From year to year, wide receivers hold their value significantly better than running backs.  These are the players that I want to invest in with my long-term contracts and that I value so highly in RSO leagues.  More specifically, I’m placing these long-term contracts on the high-priced elite wide receivers and players of all positions, except quarterback, that I believe in significantly more than the consensus of my opponents.  An example of this would be fantasy players that liked Michael Crabtree‘s potential last season.  Anyone who was smart enough to lock in Crabtree on multi-year contract at an inexpensive salary has profited significantly on Crabtree and will for years to come.  In the coming months, I will release a piece identifying several players that I’m targeting with these long-term contracts in start-up drafts and free agency.  

Brees

Saints’ QB Drew Brees is the perfect type of veteran to target

If we relate this strategy of profitability back to quarterbacks, the buzz around these young quarterbacks is so high that they are going to cost a lofty price in start-up drafts.  The opportunity to profit is minimal, at best.  In established leagues, you only have these quarterbacks for 3-4 years from when they enter the league before you have to franchise tag them or allow them to enter free agency.  How many times during those 3-4 years will they actually be a top 5, difference making quarterback?  Blake Bortles was the only QB1  quarterback ranked in the top 10 in points per game among quarterbacks to play in at least 7 games.  Marcus Mariota placed 17th, Jameis Winston 18th, and Derek Carr 19th.  Mariota, Winston, and Carr could all take another step forward and still not crack the top 10 in points per game, which would make them not even an average fantasy starter.  The price to acquire your preference of Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, or Ryan Fitzpatrick is very low in start-up drafts or even through trades in established leagues.  Make the move for one or two of these quarterbacks and allocate most of your resources elsewhere.

Step 3: Avoid drafting quarterbacks in rookie drafts

Cardinals’ RB David Johnson, taken outside of the 1st round in 2015 rookie drafts, burst onto the scene late in the season

RB David Johnson, taken outside of the 1st Rd    in 2015 drafts, burst onto the scene late in the season

When building a team on Reality Sports Online, I am most concerned with how my players can outperform what they cost for me to acquire them, whether it’s through the draft or free agency.  As we’ve discussed earlier, rookie quarterbacks offer the lowest chance of profitability while they remain on your roster.  Aside from the value they may have in trades, quarterbacks in rookie drafts don’t have the breakout potential and weekly “start-ability” that you can find in running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends.  If we take another look at DLF’s August 2015 ADP data, all of these players were taken outside of the top 10 in rookie drafts: David Johnson, Duke Johnson, Tyler Lockett, Devin Funchess, Jeremy Langford, Jay Ajayi, Javorius Allen, Matt Jones, Tevin Coleman, Phillip Dorsett, David Cobb, Jaelen Strong, Maxx Williams, Cameron Artis-Payne, Ty Montgomery, and Zach Zenner.  Thomas Rawls even went undrafted.  Locking players like these in for 3-4 years allows you to profit significantly on these picks as they are much more likely to find ways into your lineups than quarterbacks will.  For example, rookie running backs can quickly become NFL starters and immediately fantasy RB1s: see how David Johnson and Thomas Rawls finished 2015.  Aside from Johnson and Rawls, there are many names in this group that hold more value going into 2016 than their RSO rookie contract would indicate.  In addition to profiting for the next 2 to 3 years, a few of these players may be worthy of the franchise tag for a season or two if their production warrants.  While you may hit on the occasional quarterback that you’re able to trade for profit after a breakout, the smarter strategy is to use your draft picks on other positions which feature a much better likelihood of profitability.


Personal Bio: An avid fan of all things NFL, Dave has been playing fantasy football since 1999.  Though Dave participates in all types of fantasy football including redraft and daily, he prefers keeper and dynasty leagues as talent evaluation and scouting are integral components of each.

RSO Rookie Draft Rankings

Updated: May 27th 2015

amari-cooper-aac5e34e11ba6b90

With the NFL Draft in the rearview mirror and your RSO rookie draft on the horizon, let’s rank the players who should be on your radar and what kind of value they’ll provide under standard RSO contracts. Truth be told, if you have a top two or three pick this year, we’d advise trying to move back a few spots if you can get a worthwhile return, but of course that’s up to you. While all leagues are different, we’ll progress assuming standard RSO rules, which means non-PPR.

Round 1

1.1  Oakland Raiders WR Amari Cooper – ($6,024,012 in Year 1, $6,408,524 in Year 2, $6,793,035 in Year 3) – Cooper gets the nod at the top over Todd Gurley because of Gurley’s relative loss of value in 2015 coming off the ACL injury and because of the presumed timeshare with Tre Mason. The choice is even clearer in PPR formats.

1.2  St. Louis Rams RB Todd Gurley – ($5,656,694 in Year 1, $6,017,760 in Year 2, $6,378,826 in Year 3) – Risks aside, Jeff Fisher clearly plans to feed Gurley plenty when healthy. He’s the best running back talent to come into the league in several years and he’ll be a relative steal for you down the road if he remains healthy.

1.3  San Diego Chargers RB Melvin Gordon  – ($5,509,768 in Year 1, $5,861,455 in Year 2, $6,213,142 in Year 3) – The guess here is that Gordon makes the most immediate impact of any rookie in the class as he walks into a starting role on a team that wants to run and run often. But Gordon’s burden of carries in college portends a decline down the road.

1.4  Chicago Bears WR Kevin White – ($5,289,377 in Year 1, $5,626,996 in Year 2, $5964,616 in Year 3) – White probably drops a spot or two in PPR formats, but as a significant downfield threat who should score often in the league, he’s ready-made to complement Alshon Jeffery.

1.5  Philadelphia Eagles WR Nelson Agholor – ($4,995,522 in Year 1, $5,314,385 in Year 2, $5,633,249 in Year 3) – On talent alone, Agholor may not merit this spot, but as a fit in Chip Kelly’s offense, Agholor will get the ball early and often. Bump him up in PPR formats.

1.6  Jacksonville Jaguars RB T.J. Yeldon – ($4,407,814 in Year 1, $4,689,164 in Year 2, $4,970,514 in Year 3) – Here’s the first significant drop-off talent-wise in Round 1. Yeldon is not the most explosive back in the class, but he will win the starting job early and, behind an improving O-line, should score his fair share of touchdowns.

1.7  Atlanta Falcons RB Tevin Coleman – ($3,893,569 in Year 1, $4,142,095 in Year 2, $4,390,620 in Year 3) – The Falcons’ new decision-makers used a third-round pick on Coleman for a reason. It won’t be long, or difficult, before he wrests the full-time job away from Devonta Freeman and is Matt Ryan’s backfield caddy.

1.8  Detroit Lions RB Ameer Abdullah – ($3,452,788 in Year 1, $3,673,178 in Year 2, $3,893,569 in Year 3) – Another runner who probably ran too much in college, but Abdullah the butcher should see plenty of space to run in the Lions offense. He may not supplant Joique Bell from Week 1, but it won’t take too long.

1.9  Baltimore Ravens WR Breshad Perriman – ($3,379,324 in Year 1, $3,595,025 in Year 2, $3,810,727 in Year 3) – The next two receivers probably jump up one or two spots in PPR leagues, with Perriman topping DeVante Parker because he has a better quarterback, a more defined role and, from this vantage point, is simply a better player.

1.10  Miami Dolphins WR DeVante Parker – ($3,232,397 in Year 1, $3,438,720 in Year 2, $3,645,043 in Year 3) – A solid bet to eventually prove that he should have been ranked higher, but Parker is far from a finished product and the guess here is he won’t make much of a week-to-week impact for you until Year 3. The one thing he does best though, catch contested balls, could make him a touchdown-heavy player early.

1.11  Tennessee Titans WR Dorial Green-Beckham – ($3,085,470 in Year 1, $3,282,415 in Year 2, $3,479,360 in Year 3) – Buyer beware here obviously, and maybe it’s worth waiting for a second-round contract to take on DGB’s risk, but if it comes together, even in Year 2 or 3, Green-Beckham could be a touchdown machine and an ideal complement for Marcus Mariota.

1.12  Carolina Panthers WR Devin Funchess – ($2,865,079 in Year 1, $3,047,956 in Year 2, $3,230,834 in Year 3) – If Kelvin Benjamin worked out well for you, feel free to go back to the well. Like Benjamin, Funchess is big (6-4, 232) and not super fast, but he can make contested catches in the red zone. The upside may not be crazy high, but Funchess should be steady.

Round 2

2.1  Cleveland Browns RB Duke Johnson – ($1,351,730 in Year 1, $1,438,010 in Year 2, $1,524,291 in Year 3) – Hitting on a second-round pick is where you can really make a killing cap-wise. Johnson is high upside as the third-round pick should eventually take the starting job from Isaiah Crowell and Terrance West. But the offense is still going to stink in the short term.

2.2  Indianapolis Colts WR Philip Dorsett – ($1,337,037 in Year 1, $1,422,380 in Year 2, $1,507,723 in Year 3) – Another high-upside play who could provide surplus value down the road. If T.Y. Hilton departs in free agency (probably unlikely), Dorsett becomes an immediate fantasy starter. And if not, his dynamic speed should play well downfield with the league’s best deep passer.

2.3  Pittsburgh Steelers WR Sammie Coates – ($1,322,344 in Year 1, $1,406,7494 in Year 3, $1491,154 in Year 3) – Others may not be so high on Coates, partially because he’ll be competing for balls with not just Antonio Brown but Martavius Bryant and Markus Wheaton. But Coates’ big-play ability and Ben Roethlisberger’s big arm should work well together. Bump him down in PPR leagues.

2.4  Arizona Cardinals RB David Johnson – ($1,307,652 in Year 1, $1,391,119 in Year 2, $1,474,586 in Year 3) – Johnson landed in a weird spot for his skillset. One of the more advanced receiving backs in the draft, Johnson overlaps in that area with incumbent Andre Ellington, but the two should still split time moving forward. Bump up in PPR leagues.

2.5  Baltimore Ravens RB Javorius “Buck” Allen – ($1,292,959 in Year 1, $1,375,488 in Year 2, $1,458,017 in Year 3) – A home-run swing worth taking after we saw what a relatively marginal talent like Justin Forsett did in the Ravens offense last year. Sure, there’s no Gary Kubiak to scheme the run game, but Allen could be the guy in Baltimore if Forsett falls of a cliff health-wise. And if he never puts it together, the contract isn’t prohibitive.

2.6  Tennessee Titans RB David Cobb – ($1,278,266 in Year 1, $1,359,857 in Year 2, $1,441,449 in Year 3) – Here’s where our questions about what Ken Whisenhunt is going to do with Marcus Mariota seep into the rankings. With a more creative offensive mind, Mariota’s running back would have huge value. That’s not the case, so we’ll bump Cobb down while he tries to steal Bishop Sankey’s job (easier than it sounds).

2.7  Tennessee Titans QB Marcus Mariota – ($1,263,573 in Year 1, $1,344,227 in Year 2, $1,424,881 in Year 3) – If Mariota had landed in Philadelphia, he’d rank near the top five. But with Whisenhunt, where Mariota will be square-pegged, there just won’t be enough upside. With so many starting-caliber fantasy QBs out there, the reward on hitting on a back or receiver outweighs Mariota’s talent until now.

2.8  Tampa Bay Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston – ($1,248,881 in Year 1, $1,328,596 in Year 2, $1,408,312 in Year 3) – Winston may be the purer pocket passer, and he may have better immediate weapons in Mike Evans and Vincent Jackson, but he still has a terrible offensive line and a limited running game. Winston’s lack of value on the ground compared to Mariota bumps him below the No. 2 overall pick.

2.9  Washington Redskins RB Matt Jones – ($1,234,188 in Year 1, $1,312,966 in Year 2, $1,391,755 in Year 3) – New GM Scott McCloughan knows that Alfred Morris can’t be relied upon to handle his normal workload moving forward and, with Roy Helu departed in free agency, Jones, a third-round pick, steps in as the immediate Morris caddy. He’s probably great value in this spot.

2.10  Miami Dolphins RB Jay Ajayi – ($1,219,495 in Year 1, $1,297,335 in Year 2, $1,375,176 in Year 3) – Another player who could end up belonging much higher on the list, but Ajayi slid to the fifth-round of the NFL Draft for significant injury concerns that shouldn’t be overlooked. But even if he starts for half a season at some point over the next three years, he proves worthy of the roster spot at this price.

2.11  Baltimore Ravens TE Maxx Williams – ($1,204,803 in Year 1, $1,281,705 in Year 2, $1,358,607 in Year 3) – Is a low-end starting tight end worth this spot in the second round? That’s up to you, but that’s what Williams should turn out to be early in his career, with the chance of becoming top-five tight end worthy come Year 3.

2.12  Seattle Seahawks WR Tyler Lockett – ($1,190,110 in Year 1, $1,266,074 in Year 2, $1,342,039 in Year 3) – Tough call between Lockett and Jaelen Strong here, but we’ll give the edge to Lockett, whom the Seahawks traded up to select. If he can be Russell Wilson’s big-play threat early, he’ll provide you plenty of surplus value down the road.

Just missed: Houston Texans WR Jaelen Strong, Oakland Raiders TE Clive Walford, New York Jets WR Devin Smith, San Francisco 49ers RB Mike Davis, Green Bay Packers WR Ty Montgomery, Atlanta Falcons WR Justin Hardy, Chicago Bears RB Jeremy Langford