As someone living in Seattle who closely monitors the Seahawks every season, this season feels very different. There is no consistent, dominant defense, no running game, and the team has committed very little financially to the offensive line. Yet as of right now, Las Vegas is still giving the Seahawks 12-1 odds to win the Super Bowl, which is the exact same as the Atlanta Falcons. Here’s three reasons why it won’t happen.
While Richard Sherman and Michael Bennett may be the most vocal on the Seahawks defense, Earl Thomas is their clear defensive leader. The defense clearly hasn’t been the same since Thomas sustained his broken leg in Week 13 vs. Carolina. To wit, they’ve given up an average of 24.5 points a game in the four games since Thomas got hurt and that total would be considerably higher if they didn’t happen upon the anemic Rams offense in one of those weeks. You can beat this team through the air of late as Steven Terrell does not hit like Thomas, nor have the awareness to provide the right help as evident in this Davante Adams 66 yard touchdown and this 80 yard touchdown bomb to J.J. Nelson.
Additionally, the leadership qualities that Thomas brings in the huddle and on the sidelines are clearly missing and now distractions like Richard Sherman’s supposed media boycott are interfering with the play on the field. This is the type of situation that doesn’t get questioned when teams are winning handily and humming along, but when teams start to show cracks, issues like this become common. To me, this is one sign that the writing is on the wall for the Seahawks.
By now you have probably seen this Beast Mode video, but if you haven’t yet thank me later. Aside from a 72 yard touchdown run by C.J. Prosise earlier in the year, there haven’t been many highlights in the run game of late for the Seahawks. In fact, the team finished the season with three straight games rushing for under 100 yards.
The problem here is twofold: first, injuries have hampered Russell Wilson’s ability to run the read option which had previously produced success for both Wilson getting yardage in chunks as well as running backs like Thomas Rawls. Second, the offensive line has been abysmal from a blocking perspective, as noted in this Football Outsiders table which shows the Seahawks offensive line ranked second-to-worst in the NFL in running up the middle and 29th running to the left end. With these stats, maybe there’s a reason Wilson threw the ball from the goal line against the Rams.
While all indications are that both Wilson and Rawls are at their healthiest since the season began, the Seahawks defense, plus the power run game/read option all have to be working like clockwork for the team to be dominant. Perhaps the Seahawks are gearing up for this in the playoffs, but can the line hold up and can the Seahawks stop opposing offenses routinely too? Seems doubtful.
As I predicted in the Reality Sports Online Wildcard Predictions Article, the Seahawks should hold serve at home and win this weekend against the Lions behind the raucous home crowd and playing a suspect Detroit Lions defense. After that, the road gets incredibly difficult.
Personally, I think the Seahawks path ends next week in Atlanta, a team that frankly should have beaten the Seahawks in Seattle earlier in the season. Matt Ryan passed for 335 yards and 3 touchdowns in a narrow 26-24 defeat and Julio Jones had his way with Sherman (7 catches for 139 yards and a TD). The Falcons got little in the run game that week behind Devonta Freeman and Tevin Coleman, but the Falcons offense is humming right now and with the game being played potentially in the Georgia Dome, the Falcons opportunistic defense would make enough plays to beat the Seahawks.
To me the road ends in Atlanta, but if it doesn’t, it would likely end in Dallas or with a loss in the Super Bowl. It would take Russell Wilson going on an Aaron Rodgers type run for me to believe the Seahawks can go all the way this season.
Added to which, if any game gets close, kicker Stephen Hauschka missed six extra points this season (he was very accurate field goal wise, going 33 for 37). He also only made one 50+ yard field goal the entire season.
For all these reasons, and unless Wilson can take his team on a magical carpet ride, I think the Seahawks will be out in the divisional round.
Matt Goodwin is entering his third season as a writer for Reality Sports Online and is in year four of his main league. He also contributes for numberFire. He is an avid sports fan from Cleveland, Ohio who would count a championship for a Cleveland major sports team a close second behind getting married to his wife Renee and the births of his children, Jory (6 year old son) and Lainie (2 year old daughter) and the Cleveland Cavaliers have finally provided that reality! Matt loves mid 90’s hip-hop, playing pick-up hoops, traveling, Ohio State football and Arizona basketball, watching Glengarry Glen Ross for the millionth time and being outside the few months it doesn’t rain in Seattle where he lives. He can be found on Twitter @mattgoody2 and hopes you continue to read his In the Zone articles.
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