Rookie Draft Preview: Running Backs
The NFL Draft is only two weeks away! I have analyzed the tape, scouting reports and combine performances, and over the next two weeks, I am going to provide you all the information you need to know about the incoming crop of rookies so that you can get the best bang for your buck in your RSO Rookie Draft. Below I start with my list of impactful players out of the incoming class of Running Backs, but be on the look out for analysis of rookies at other positions and a list of the overall top 60 rookies in the coming days. After the NFL Draft, I will provide updated analysis based on which NFL teams draft each rookie.
1. Jeremy Hill, LSU
The RB position certainly has been devalued at the top of recent drafts, but Jeremy Hill is ready to come in and help an NFL team right away. Major talent outweighs minor concerns in this case, so a pair of off the field incidents should not influence your RSO draft boards. The 235-pound Hill is the definition of a grinder, but for a big man he has quick feet through narrow space. Former NFL head coach Cam Cameron, who coached LSU’s offense in 2013, believes the RB is one of the best he has coached. Cameron specifically praised Hill’s tenacity as a runner and pass protector, and the back’s soft hands as a receiver. Lastly, Hill has hardly any tread on his tires, entering the NFL after only two years as a primary back at LSU and without any serious injury history. Hill is an immediate red zone option, and RSO owners in need of a RB3/RB4 should take a hard look.
2. Tre Mason, Auburn
Not often do you hear an athlete’s name mentioned with Bo Jackson’s. Tre Mason had a monster junior campaign, breaking multiple single-season records previously held by Jackson. He smartly declared for the draft, taking advantage of a colossal postseason in the national spotlight. The only knocks on Mason are his size and hypothetical durability concerns. However, every-down backs are nearly extinct, so Mason’s physical shortcomings should not be overanalyzed. It’s difficult not to love this decisive runner who sliced up SEC defenses and rarely takes a false step in the backfield. Mason was blessed with a low center of gravity and tremendous vision, priming him for a longer than expected NFL career.
3. Ka’Deem Carey, Arizona
Arizona’s workhorse padded his resume for scouts in 2013, averaging 156 yards per game (2nd in FBS). He displayed a physical streak when both cradling the ball and in space as a blocker. However, media sirens went off in February when Carey ran a pedestrian 4.62 forty at the combine. Two factors compensate for his lack of breakaway speed.
• Professional defenses seldom allow backs to escape the second level. Only five backs (Forte, Spiller, McCoy, Murray, Peterson) had more than two (2) rushes of 40+ yards last year. Not one of those top backs eclipsed four (4) such runs.
• Carey possesses one of the more underappreciated RB traits. He falls forward at the end of runs habitually with exceptional leg drive.
On the contrary, the Wildcat’s off-field history raises red flags. Since being crowned NCAA rushing champion in 2012, Carey has had three run-ins with the law. Notwithstanding, his willingness to pass protect and his ferocious style with the rock makes him a strong candidate to immediately contribute on the next level.
4. Bishop Sankey, Washington
He has a similar skill set to Giovanni Bernard, the first RB selected in the 2013 draft, and Sankey’s combine performance slightly topped Bernard’s in every category. The Washington product forced scouts to go back to the tape after benching 225 pounds twenty-six times (second most among RBs at combine). However, that strength does not discernably present itself on tape. Sankey often struggles to run through arm tackles and finish runs. On the other hand, his best attributes pop on tape – evidence of above average patience, vision and durability. Like Bernard did, Sankey will bring an excellent pair of mitts to the league and projects as a decent 3rd down option for his team.
5. Carlos Hyde, Ohio State
Hyde has a great sense for where the first down chains are, and his career average of 6.1 yards per carry proves it. Given most GMs and coaches are leaning toward not investing high in the running back position, they still are drawn to physical backs who can dish out punishment. He and Eddie Lacy entered the league with practically identical measurables and each runs with a chip on his shoulder. Conversely, Hyde is far more inconsistent than the top 2013 offensive rookie and does not possess the nimble feet Lacy boasts. Hyde should see goal-line work, which will boost his fantasy production, but his value really hinges on where he lands.
6. Lache Seastrunk, Baylor
This speedy back could not break into Oregon’s 2010 rotation, as he sat behind LaMichael James and Kenjon Barner on the depth chart. Two years later, Lache Seatrunk finally erupted in Baylor’s dynamic offense. He got his first collegiate start midway through 2012, following his team’s fourth straight loss. The Bears went on to win 12 of their next 13 games. Seastrunk averaged a crazy 9.9 yards per carry over that span and scored three touchdowns in the sole loss. The Oregon transfer has breakaway speed and rare elusiveness, but also has an uphill battle to see game action at the next level. He didn’t catch a pass all season and is limited in pass protection, two qualities necessary to gain NFL coaches’ trust.
7. Storm Johnson, UCF
A popular sleeper pick, Storm Johnson ended his collegiate career in the shadow of his UCF teammate QB Blake Bortles. Yet, when watching him run, it’s evident why Johnson was a top recruit of the Miami Hurricanes a few years ago. Although unique in running style and stature, he stays low to the ground, he’s a physical runner, and his vision and anticipation in the open field nicely complement his change of direction skill, especially for a big back (6’0”, 215 lbs.). When at UCF, defenders seemed to bounce off Johnson in space, but his rawness presented itself when in tight space. He missed gaping holes and bounced runs outside too frequently, was prone to fumbling and was exposed in pass protection. His dual-threat success at the college level should serve him well as he attempts to carve a role in the NFL. He is not a burner, but Johnson projects as a top second-tier back in this class.
8. Andre Williams, Boston College
Williams may have difficulty facing faster and smarter defensive fronts. He acquired four years of experience at Boston College and has a clean record off the field. His production and intelligence lowers his risk as a prospect, but the nation’s 2013 rushing champion (2,177 yards) must show he can be a more dependable pass catcher and tighten up his footwork behind the line of scrimmage.
9. Terrance West, Towson
West has prototypical size for the position, and he plays closer to 6’0” than his 5’9” build lets on. That must be taken with a grain of salt though, since physicality is difficult to gauge at such a low level of competition, and because he didn’t necessarily open eyes at combine testing. That said, West made things look easy on the lower FCS level, as evidenced by his stellar career numbers (punctuated by his 2509 yards and 41 TDs in 2013), and his stock will definitely rise if drafted by a zone blocking team or by one who feeds off power runners. The Towson product will undoubtedly bring an all-business attitude to whichever franchise takes a shot on him, and thus, his value is tied to what kind of grooming he receives early in his career. He’ll have to learn a lot very quickly in the passing game – both as a receiver and pass protector. West is a project who may sit at #3 on an NFL depth chart in 2014, but is a name RSO owners should know.
10. Charles Sims, West Virginia
Sims’s size and catching ability project well to the NFL. It is still a mystery why Sims transferred from the University of Houston with one year of eligibility remaining, but consistency against stronger Big 12 competition boosts his stock. The fifth-year senior doesn’t excel or lack in any given area, but his ball security and willingness to play through nagging injuries has been questioned.
11. Marion Grice, Arizona State
This junior college transfer may have had the softest hands in college football last year and, over two seasons at Arizona State, demonstrated a knack for finding the end zone. His potential to become a top multi-threat in this draft class has been underreported. Although there is opportunity in today’s NFL to make a career as a shifty pass catcher out of the backfield, Grice is taller and less explosive than a Sproles, Woodhead or Vereen. The former Sun Devil runs at 6’0” and a lean 208 pounds and I don’t foresee development as a north-south yardage eater. It’d be harsh to call Grice soft, but if called upon to soon, he will be overpowered by NFL fronts. Production out of a third down-utility role, in all likelihood, represents Grice’s ceiling. Still, keep an eye on the system he ends up in. If penciled into such a role with the Saints, Packers or Steelers, he could make for an intriguing RSO bench option.
12. Henry Josey, Missouri
Regardless of where he lands in the draft, Henry Josey is one underclassman safe from criticism for leaving school too early. Josey took a medical redshirt in 2012 to recover from a significant knee injury suffered in the late stages of the previous season – a knee injury the team doctor called “a tragic fluke, a one-in-a-million type.” Nevertheless, the kid overcame the psychological and (obvious) physical components of his recovery brilliantly, piling up 1,166 yards and 16 TDs on the ground in his final season. If that comeback season was not enough of an indication, Josey’s 4.43 forty-time (third fastest) at the combine confirmed he is healthy. However, Josey does expose himself too often and must learn to protect himself a la Wes Welker. No other red flags here, but Josey must prove his worth as a 5’8” speed back in a league that’s getting bigger and stronger by the day. RSO watch list nominee.
13. Devonta Freeman, Florida State
Freeman is a hot name at the RB position right now. He was the most consistent back in the BCS Champions’ crowded, talented backfield, leading it in rushing yards and TDs. Additionally, the power he displayed last year as a true junior makes one think he could see some snaps in 2014. However, I can envision Freeman flashing briefly as a rookie, only to then disappoint overzealous RSO owners. The combination of his soft hands in the passing game and aforementioned consistency could yield long-term production. At this point, though, don’t jump the gun and take a wait-and-see approach on Freeman.
14. De’Anthony Thomas, Oregon
The most electric (and smallest statured) player on the big board has very little short-term upside in fantasy. His production and durability dropped each of his three seasons at Oregon, cementing his ceiling as a complementary NFL player.
15. Isaiah Crowell, Alabama State
Small school guys rarely get second opportunities in the NFL, meaning it’s essential for Isaiah Crowell to make the most of his first. Come May, one NFL team will take a shot on this RB, in spite of several red flags he bears. Issues regarding his coachability, or lack thereof, first cropped up in his initial collegiate stint at the University of Georgia. Crowell did little to repair that image at Alabama State, as problems involving work ethic and mental toughness persisted. Moreover, he failed to consistently dominate inferior competition, a usual prerequisite for draftable prospects (especially those with red flags) out of small schools. Onto a few positives – Crowell often makes the first defender miss and habitually racks up yards after that first contact. Additionally, one will be impressed when watching his lateral movement on tape. On the other hand, a few of those red flags are noticeable on the field. At times he displays horrible body language and seemingly is out there just going through the motions. Crowell makes this list based on pure raw talent, since he did show flashes of brilliance against SEC defenses in 2011.
16. Dri Archer, Kent State
Not only did he run a blazing 4.26 forty at the combine, falling just short of Chris Johnson’s 4.24 effort in 2008, but the Kent St. product also measured like a track star in Indy. In fact, he was the smallest running back there at 5’7” and 173 pounds. Bearing that in mind, it seems curious that some scouts have Archer ranked as a wide receiver. The speedster will have to dramatically improve his ball skills to be a dual threat whom a team can move around. Based on his special teams value, he could be a Day 2 surprise pick. For RSO purposes though, Archer probably won’t get a look unless injuries stack up.
Others To Watch: Rajion Neal, Tennessee; Jerick McKinnon, GA Southern; Kapri Bibbs, CO State
