Whale Watching: Top 10 Players to Watch in Training Camp
Last Friday, I took my one vacation day of the summer and for the first time ever went whale watching with the family a few hours outside of Seattle, where I live. For those of you who haven’t been and have geographic access to do this, I highly recommend it as the boat ride provides a calming sense and the opportunity to see something as amazing as humpback whales up close in their natural surroundings is awe-inspiring. For one day, I put fantasy football by the wayside (well sort of as there was a trade in our league that day that I got emailed about) and enjoyed some quality family time on the open seas on Orcas Island.
Just like I had my eyes out for whales on Friday, you as a Reality Sports Online owner are looking to watch whales too. Yours just reside on the practice fields at training camp and every report of an injury, coaches speaking about a player in hyperbole, and contract holdout causes you excitement and nervousness, especially as it relates to players you currently have on multi-year deals or ones you are targeting in your upcoming rookie drafts and auctions.
With that, let’s take a look at the Top 10 Players to Watch in Training Camp:
1. Marshawn Lynch, RB, Seattle Seahawks
Normally, I would not start with a player from the city I live; however, the Marshawn Lynch narrative is becoming the story of the week. Unfortunately, Lynch is turning more into “Least Mode” than “Beast Mode” with his contract holdout. Missing Tuesday’s practice resulted in a $275k fine. Lynch is now up to $455k in fines and his fighting for protection and guaranteed money for 2015 is causing a major distraction in Seattle who tends to have a “next man up” philosophy. One would have thought that the loss of bonus money on Tuesday would have been incentive enough for Lynch to report to camp. The Seahawks who have to pay Russell Wilson after the 2014 season are in no hurry to cave into Lynch’s contract demands with two years left on his current deal. This would set a terrible precedent for future team contract negotiations.
Lynch may simply not want to attend training camp and take the physical nicks that go along with it, but the team fine money is starting to add up. While Lynch has been the most utilized running back in the NFL over the past 3 years with 1,002 regular season carries in that span, he is rapidly approaching the 2,000 career carries that signal the decline of most running backs, especially those who run with as little regard for taking punishment as Lynch does. Also, Lynch is one of the league’s more enigmatic players and it wouldn’t surprise some teammates if he walked away from the game over this contract issue.
Additionally, talented backups Christine Michael and Robert Turbin would seize an opportunity to replace Lynch on a team that is run heavy. Offensive coordinator Darrell Bevell and Pete Carroll talked Michael up as a breakthrough candidate all offseason and it seems like Lynch indeed may be facing his last year in Seattle with a $9m cap number in 2015. Either way, if Lynch does report before the season, I’d have to think that his carries will come down under 300 and Michael would figure to get around 100 carries. With Percy Harvin back in the fold, the team could explore more unpredictable sets and move away some from being the team that led the NFL in carries and run play/pass play ratio in 2013.
If this is your first Reality Sports Online auction, based on his iffy status and 2015 possibility of being cut, you probably would only want to sign Lynch to a one year contract. If you are one of the returning owners who have Lynch on an 2.7 year average deal for an annual average contract value of $18.9m, no doubt you are concerned.
2. Cordarrelle Patterson, WR, Minnesota Vikings
The offseason hype machine for Patterson, who finished his rookie season with touchdowns in his last five games, has grown exponentially. New Offensive Coordinator Norv Turner installed 10 new plays for Patterson in February and has been moving Patterson all over the formation in the offseason to create mismatches with Patterson who strives to be “one of the league’s Top 5 playmakers”. Playmaker is an accurate description as Patterson scored on kickoff returns, receptions, and rushes last season, so if your league rewards all those scoring categories for individuals, Patterson will hold additional value. The ceiling for Patterson would be reminiscent of what Josh Gordon did in Year 2 under Turner with the Browns last year, causing much excitement in fantasy football circles. His floor if he stays healthy would probably be what he did his rookie season.
There are two concerns about Patterson to watch for in training camp. First, he’s a bit unpolished as a route runner, so get your daily fix of how he’s performing in camp and see how he performs in exhibition games before overpaying for him in a free agency auction. Second, he’s been slowed with a foot injury that has kept him out of the first few days of camp.
3. Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons
Now that geriatric Steven Jackson has injured a hamstring and will be out the rest of training camp, the Atlanta Falcons can see what 4th round draft choice Devonta Freeman out of Florida State can do. Freeman should get the majority of the running back work now this preseason and that screams opportunity. If you haven’t had your rookie draft yet, expect Freeman’s stock to be moving on up. He has been graded as the best pass protector of the rookie running backs and was already talked about as the third down back for Atlanta, given that he catches the ball incredibly well and should be featured in the screen game. Atlanta asks its running backs to do a lot in pass protection, so that may be key for continued playing time to a back that has already drawn comparisons to Shane Vereen.
Add in the talk that he is probably the featured back in 2015 and all eyes will be on Freeman now. Beating out Jacquizz Rodgers is definitely possible and Matt Ryan has already been heaping praise on Freeman’s performance thus far. Also when you add in the beef up front in Jake Matthews and Jon Asamoah and Freeman becomes even more enticing.
4. Rob Gronkowski, TE, New England Patriots
You don’t have to be an expert to know that when he’s on the field, Rob Gronkowski is the best tight end in the game and certainly the most likely to find the end zone. What is lost though on Gronkowski is just how much better he makes the Patriots as a team. Tom Brady and Stevan Ridley benefit most from his fantasy presence and Julian Edelman probably takes the biggest backseat. Basically Ridley is a 10 plus touchdown, 1,100 yard back with Gronk playing a full season and a 6 TD middling running back when Gronk isn’t playing. Obviously a lot of what the Patriots do on offense hinges on Gronk and to a lesser extent, Vereen. Brady scores 7 more fantasy points a game when both Gronk and Vereen play.
So in other words, pay attention to training camp to see if Gronk is having any ACL setbacks. All current signs point to him playing in Week 1, which should make him the second tight end you bid on in your free agency auction. Since Gronk was hurt heading into last season, some teams may have taken a one year flier contract on him, so you may be able to get him for cheaper than tight ends like Julius Thomas and Vernon Davis. If this opportunity presents itself for you, don’t hesitate to pounce on it in your auction. If you are one of the returning owners who have Gronk on a 3 year average deal for $13.5m annual average, rejoice if he plays the whole season as you’d be getting tremendous value on the risky deal you signed last offseason.
5. Rashad Jennings, RB, New York Giants
When a 29-year-old career backup running back with 387 career carries signs a 4 year, $10m contract with a running challenged team, people take notice. While the money isn’t astronomical by today’s meager running back contract standards, the years are. However, for Rashad Jennings and the New York Giants, this free agent signing seemed to be a matter of fit-the perfect running back for the perfect situation and Giants GM Jerry Reese went as far as to call Jennings a “bell cow” type.
That was until David Wilson was medically cleared for training camp from his 2013 neck surgery. Then all of a sudden it turned into a potential running back by committee with rookie Andre Williams seeing some run with the first team at the goal-line. Now with Wilson injured again yesterday with a burner (similar to a stinger), the Giants will most likely be back to Jennings as the bell-cow and take precaution with Wilson, who is out at least a week and probably longer if the team treats neck injuries as seriously as the Green Bay Packers.
Jennings as the bell-cow probably stands for good reason. He had a surprise season in Oakland last season and essentially does all the things well that put Wilson in head coach Tom Coughlin’s early season doghouse before the neck injury. Basically, Jennings is an excellent pass protector, pass catcher, and between the tackles runner who does well at the goal-line too. That signals him being on the field for all three downs, something you definitely want in a running back in your leagues. Additionally, since Jennings broke out last season, he is barely owned, so he should be available in almost all RSO auctions. Lastly, in coach-speak, Jennings has a lot of “tread” left on his tires with so few career carries, and that storyline certainly worked a few years ago for Michael Turner in Atlanta.
Keep an eye on Jennings this preseason and monitor how the other running backs are getting used. Surely if Jennings is relegated to between the 20’s work, his fantasy value could take a dip. Either way, he should be a good value for you in your auctions but be careful on giving Jennings, or any running back for that matter approaching 30 a deal for more than two years.
6. Robert Griffin III, QB, Washington Redskins
Robert Griffin III (RG3) can be one of the most electrifying quarterbacks in the NFL with his ability to run the ball and his success in the vertical passing game in his rookie season. That fell by the wayside in 2013 when RG3 played without confidence after returning from an ACL tear in a playoff game late in the 2012 season. The storyline that RSO owners will care about this year is how RG3 will bounce back now that he has a bevy of weapons to work with, buoyed by Desean Jackson signing with the team after being booted off the Philadelphia Eagles.
While new head coach Jay Gruden said recently that designed runs for RG3 will be “few and far between”, where Griffin excels is in designed rollouts where he can hit his weapons like Jackson and Pierre Garcon on intermediate to deep routes. Jordan Reed is also an up and coming excellent tight end option in the seam. Gruden is not restricting all runs for the signal-caller, but will not be running the read-option employed by former coach Mike Shanahan. He will give RG3 the green light to scramble when he deems necessary, but Gruden did turn pocket-passer Andy Dalton into one of the top fantasy quarterbacks in 2013.
All of these changes, plus a now healthy, mechanics-focused RG3 point to a bounce-back season which should be more efficient. In a division with some porous defenses, RG3 could make potential fantasy owners salivate, including our Sam Light who has him in one of his RSO leagues. Most returning leagues already have RG3 accounted for on an average 3.24 year, $11.1m annual average contract, which should be tremendous value if he comes closer to performing like in his rookie campaign.
7. Arian Foster, RB, Houston Texans
With a new head coach in Bill O’Brien and coming off a season ending back injury, Arian Foster comes into this season as someone who finds himself a little under the radar fantasy-wise. He stepped back on the training camp practice field today after a minor hamstring injury and all accounts are he looked good. This is great news, considering that Foster is expected to be used heavily as a receiver in the backfield with expectations to return back to the 66 catch level he had in 2010 and backup running back Andre Brown is being cited as an early-down player only. O’Brien would like to use Foster as a “centerpiece” of his offense, which should be music to the ears of owners entering their season with Foster on their team, who no longer have to contend with Foster sharing carries with Ben Tate, who is now in Cleveland.
Heading into auctions for new owners, definitely check and see how his health holds up and be prepared to offer him a high dollar value one or two year contract if all systems seem a go.
8. Ladarius Green, TE, San Diego Chargers
The offseason hype machine in fantasy football takes some players on a path that boosts their fantasy status to nearly epic proportions before they really have proven themselves 100%. File San Diego tight end Ladarius Green in that category. For someone who had 17 catches for 367 yards and 3 touchdowns in 2013, Green is sure getting a disproportionate share of hype given that Antonio Gates is still alive and kicking on the Chargers roster, even if his production has been significantly down the past two years.
Green is noted to make plays nobody else on the Chargers roster is capable of making and is expected to be a fantasy breakout this year, much like teammate Keenan Allen did in his rookie season. At 6’6, 240 pounds, Green certainly is a big target. However, he does need to improve on his route running to get more heavy usage in the passing game. He has Julius Thomas type upside if you are willing to take the risk in your auction.
How he is highlighted in preseason games and noting what is being said about Green by San Diego beat writers is way more important fantasy wise than any positional coach hyperbole. Green has Julius Thomas type upside if you are willing to take the risk in your auction, but put that in the context of a very deep tight end pool and use training camp as a good barometer for what Green’s value should be, which I’ve previously said in my 26-50 More Time For Some Auction rankings was 2 years, $12m.
9. Tony Romo, QB, Dallas Cowboys
After his second back surgery in two years, Tony Romo’s offseason has been pretty low key. While he did spend part of his most recent birthday in the DJ booth with my younger brother (true story) and made cameos at games at Cameron Indoor Stadium and the Final Four (the joke around the internet was that whomever Romo showed up to support-often with Jason Garrett lost or had bad luck like the Dukies), Romo’s football offseason has been very quiet. The noisiest it got is when owner Jerry Jones briefly courted Johnny Manziel around the NFL draft and came close to drafting the local Texas A&M product.
With offensive guru Scott Linehan set to be the play caller for the Cowboys this season, hopefully Romo was in the film room studying ways to use all the weapons he has, which should include boosted roles for deep threat Terrance Williams who flashes some Michael Floyd type upside and Lance Dunbar, who could be the next Linehan pass-catching stud out of the backfield. That’s not to forget the obvious Top 10 players at their position that Romo has in tow as well-Dez Bryant and DeMarco Murray.
Linehan loves slinging the rock and Romo’s 648 pass attempts, which were a career high seem possible if he can hold up health wise behind what is regarded as one of the best offensive lines in football, which has recently been boosted by a long-term deal for offensive tackle Tyron Smith and the team taking Zach Martin (barely) in the first round of the 2014 NFL Draft.
If his back holds up and given the increased focus on grabbing running backs and wide receivers in your auction with a deep QB and TE pool, Romo screams value in your auction if he’s a free agent. If not, the owners who have him on average deals of 2.6 years and $6.1m annually will be paying keen attention to news out of Oxnard, CA where the Cowboys hold training camp. Consider ESPN’s Ed Werder your best friend in that regard.
10. Terrance West, RB, Cleveland Browns
Training camp speak is heating up in Cleveland, which all of a sudden is at the epicenter of the sports universe now that the prodigal son has returned to the Cavs and Johnny Football is engaged in a battle to be the starting QB. To me, the more interesting story is who wins out between Ben Tate and Terrance West as the Browns starting running back in OC Kyle Shanahan’s one-cut running attack. Shanahan has only really employed a running back by committee when he has had player injuries, so in theory the winner of the battle on a team that faces the prospect of running often due to a possible year long Josh Gordon suspension is a serious fantasy threat.
There is no shortage of organizational praise for West who new head coach Mike Pettine has already talked up one day into training camp saying he was “shocked” with West’s pass-catching ability and that West “isn’t far behind” Tate, which was based mainly on pass protection. West did catch 36 passes as a senior at Towson, something that Tate isn’t really adept at.
Further running backs coach Wilbert Montgomery, who himself was a stellar running back and has seen plenty of other ones in his lifetime offered high praise for West even after calling Tate “the guy” in Cleveland. Per the Akron Beacon Journal, Montgomery noted “he has that lure-you-to-sleep-on-the-sideline move that I can accelerate or play like I’m going to accelerate and come back inside. Those are traits I haven’t seen in a while.”
All that said, West should be moving up your rookie draft boards as he should figure in with 10 touches a game in a backup role and Tate does have a lengthy history or injuries. I’d put him towards the end of Round 1 in a 12 team rookie draft, but certainly reach for him as high as 1.06 if you like him.
If West does beat Tate out, expect him to be a future star and one you definitely want locked up for 3 years. Don’t sign Tate as a free agent to anything more than two years, and keep that contract moderate. I had previously suggested 2 years, $10m total.
