Deep Draft Targets
Everyone is always looking for those hidden gems the NFL seems to have missed in the early rounds of the NFL draft. We all want to be that RSO owner who finds the next Arian Foster or Allen Hurns. This can be very difficult though. NFL production tends to correlate with draft position. Higher draft picks have better odds of producing at the NFL level.
I want to focus on players drafted in the 7th round or went undrafted in the NFL draft. These players will likely go undrafted or drafted late in your RSO rookie drafts. There is a good reason for this. These players are very unlikely to help your fantasy team. As an example, just two out of seventy-five wide receivers (Julian Edelman, Stevie Johnson) selected in the seventh round since 2003 have put together significant stretches of fantasy production. This article looks at a few of those deep round options in rookie drafts who might have a little better chance of providing some fantasy production for your team.
Keith Marshall, RB, 7th Round, Washington
Sometimes a player needs a change of scenery to bring out the best. Keith Marshall might be one of those players. A highly recruited athlete coming out of high school, Marshall endured a seemingly endless string of setbacks at the college level. An ACL tear ended his season five games into his sophomore year after a productive freshman year at Georgia. He then attempted to return before his knee fully healed and managed only three games as a junior. His senior campaign saw limited work behind Nick Chubb, who many consider to be one of the better backs in college.
So why the optimism given Marshall’s limited resume? Marshall (5’-11”, 219 lbs) comes into the NFL with one of the all-time best combinations of size and speed at the running back position. He ran a blistering 4.31 40-yard dash at the NFL combine, practically unheard of at his near optimal weight. Competent pass catching skills and smooth, efficient change of direction added to his game-breaking speed produce an intriguing prospect with a ceiling practically unheard of for a seventh round pick. His size and speed usually result in him falling forward for extra yards. He is not the most elusive back and does not show a lot of power in his runs, resulting in few missed and broken tackles.
Marshall also goes to a tremendous situation in Washington, a team with a young ascending offense and very little at the running back spot ahead of him on the depth chart. Marshall’s primary competition for early touches is Matt Jones, one of the worst running backs in the league last year according to Pro Football Focus. Jones averaged a paltry 3.4 yards per carry, the lowest of any back to have 100 carries, behind PFF’s 13th ranked rushing offensive line. Jones also managed to lose four fumbles on his disastrous first year. Overall, this is simply one of the best combinations of athletic ability and opportunity that a running back selected in the seventh round will ever see in the NFL.
Josh Ferguson, RB, Undrafted, Indianapolis
Ferguson profiles as a quality pass catcher out of the backfield for the Colts. He totaled 168 receptions and averaged over five yards per carry over his career on an Illinois team that struggled to remain competitive in the Big Ten. The 5’-9”, 198 pound back has quick feet, great short area moves, and tremendous lateral agility that routinely made defenders look silly. He also plays larger than his size with the ability to break arm tackles of defensive backs. His size likely limits him to a passing down back role which was probably the reason he went undrafted as not every team utilizes a receiving back specialist.
Indianapolis could be a great landing spot for Ferguson. This is a pass first offense and Luck has shown the willingness to utilize his running backs extensively, particularly near the goal line where the Colts do not have a dominant red zone threat. The Colts would love to run the ball more in order to protect Luck and tried to address the issue taking four offensive linemen in this year’s draft. However, Gore was thoroughly ineffective last season and is unlikely to improve at the age of 33. The depth chart behind Gore, headed by released former Seahawk Robert Turbin, is also uninspiring leaving plenty of opportunity for Ferguson to make an immediate impact.
Devon Cajuste, WR, Undrafted, San Francisco
The huge former Stanford Cardinal wideout has a versatile skill set which could translate well to the NFL. Cajuste averaged almost 18 yards per reception at Stanford. He has enormous 10-3/4” hands that helped him continually make difficult catches. Cajuste effectively uses his large frame to shield defenders from throws particularly near the end zone. He has deceptive speed that allows him to get by unsuspecting players. The 6’-4”, 234 pound receiver also displayed incredible agility for a player of his size with an NFL combine best three-cone drill time of 6.49 seconds.
Oppurtunity is the key for Cajuste in San Francisco. The wide receiver and tight end situation in San Francisco is largely unsettled. Torrey Smith led the returning group of players with small totals in both receptions (33) and targets (61). Anquan Boldin was not resigned leaving 110 targets from 2015. The high volume Chip Kelly offense should also have more targets available for the receiving crew. Philadelphia doled out almost 100 more targets than San Francisco last season. Cajuste’s size, skill, and versatility could see him playing multiple roles for San Francisco as a move tight end, a big slot receiver, or an isolated wide out near the goal line.
Bio: Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics. He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time. Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.
