The Watch List: 2018 Big 12 Preview

By Bob Cowper

Updated: July 21st 2018

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players, storylines and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention. Check back throughout the Summer for previews on each conference and my preseason predictions. During the regular season, The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year.

Storylines to Watch

Heisman Favorite: Will Grier, QB, West Virginia. It feels like cheating when I take the best passer in the conference as my Heisman favorite. Alas, that’s the way it goes these days. Grier threw for 3,490 yards in 2017 but he’ll need to approach 4,000 if he’s to be a true Heisman contender.
Darkhorse Heisman Candidate: Kyler Murray, QB, Oklahoma. Murray has name cachet already because of his impending baseball career. He was selected 9th overall by the Oakland A’s but still plans to play football in 2018. If Murray is playing well, which I anticipate, he will get a lot of buzz because he has a story media outlets can sell.
Offensive Player of the Year: David Montgomery, RB, Iowa State. No offensive player will mean more to his team this season in the Big 12 than Montgomery will to the Cyclones. He is not a breakaway runner but he has amazing balance and tackle breaking ability. He’ll have a number of “how did he do that” highlights again this season.
Defensive Player of the Year: Joe Dineen, LB, Kansas. Dineen was a Second-Team All-American last season after a 133 tackle season. He led the Big 12 in tackles and tackles for loss in 2017 (and was top five in the nation in both stats). He also added 2.5 sacks. He may not draw the NFL Draft hype that Texas Tech LB Dakota Allen will but Dineen will again prove to be a bright spot on a poor Kansas team.
Newcomer of the Year: Keaontay Ingram, RB, Texas. Ingram was ranked the #6 running back in the class by 247Sports and #10 by Phil Steele. Ingram is listed at 6010/190 which is good size for an incoming freshman. He hails from Texas and received an offer from just about every school in the Big 12 and Big Ten so it was a good get for the rebounding Longhorns. Per 247Sports, Ingram had 39 total TDs and over 2,500 total yards last season. Texas’ leading rusher last season, with 385 yards, was QB Sam Ehlinger so the depth chart is wide open for Ingram to earn a role.
Underclassman to Watch: Ceedee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma. Lamb was the Sooners third leading receiver last year (46-807-7) as a true freshman. While the numbers weren’t stellar, Lamb stood out to me a few times when I watched OU play, specifically against Texas Tech. He took over that Tech game, earning 147 yards and 2 TDs on 9 receptions. He was a bit inconsistent in 2017 but I would expect that to even out as he gains more experience. He’ll need to adjust to a new quarterback again this season but I’m expecting a 60-1,000-8 season from Lamb which would put him in the NFL Draft conversation for 2020.
Best QB-WR Tandem: Will Grier and David Sills, West Virginia. I wanted to avoid listing West Virginia or Oklahoma here to add a little variety to the preview but there just aren’t enough good quarterbacks right now in the Big 12. Grier and Sills are the name brand tandem to watch. Grier also has WR Gary Jennings to target. Last year Jennings led the team in yards and receptions but isn’t the scoring threat that Sills is while playing over the middle from the slot. A sleeper QB-WR tandem to keep an eye on is Iowa State’s sixth year senior QB Kyle Kempt and WR Hakeem Butler. Kempt battled injuries but was efficient when he played (145.9 rating, 15 TD to just 3 INT); Butler has great size at 6060 and averaged 17.0 yards per catch.
Best RB Corps: Oklahoma. The Sooners have one of the best backs in the conference in junior Rodney Anderson (more on him below) but it’s more about the supporting cast. Lincoln Riley’s backfield also boasts sophomore Trey Sermon who had a great true freshman season (744-5 rushing and 16-139-2 receiving) and is a devy league darling. New to the mix this season will be redshirt sophomore Kennedy Brooks and freshman TJ Pledger. Both Brooks and Pledger were 4-star recruits according to 247Sports. OU’s third-stringer was good for over 500 yards last year so I expect both to contribute. Defenses will also need to be wary of QB Kyler Murray who has wheels; he rushed for 142 yards on just 10 carries last season in limited duty.
Coach on the Hottest Seat: David Beaty, Kansas. It should be no surprise to find Beaty in this ignominious position after a 1-11 season in 2017. In his three seasons with the Jayhawks, Beaty has just 3 wins (and 33 losses). Kansas won’t be good this season but they will be improved. I’m thinking that four wins saves Beaty his job and that might not be a stretch given the experience this squad has.

Teams to Watch

Kansas Jayhawks (1-11 in 2017)

As I mentioned above, Kansas is very experienced. So much so that Phil Steele ranks them as #1 in his NCAA Experience Chart for 2018. The Experience Chart is a favorite tool of mine to aid in finding under-the-radar teams for the upcoming season. While the Jayhawks may not posses much talent, their consistency and maturity will help. The team returns 19 starters but even more importantly is the depth that they return: they have the second most letter winners returning in the nation. The two returning quarterbacks, Carter Stanley and Peyton Bender, split time last year due to ineffectiveness and injury. Leading rusher Khalil Herbert (663-4) is back, as is WR Steven Sims (59-839-6) who also doubles as a return man. The aforementioned LB Joe Dineen leads the defense. Kansas should start with two wins against Nicholls and Central Michigan. It’s feasible they split the next two games, home against Rutgers and at Baylor. That could be the extent of their wins for the season but because of their experience I would not count out the possibility of getting to four and saving David Beaty’s job.

Oklahoma State (10-3 in 2017)

I’ll be watching Oklahoma State closely this season, but not because I expect them to improve upon last season. Instead, I’m half-expecting Mike Gundy’s team to implode in 2018. The Cowboys lose QB Mason Rudolph, WRs James Washington and Marcell Atemen and three of their four top tacklers. In contrast to Kansas, OK State is one of the least experienced teams in the nation (ranked #119). They do return RBs Justice Hill and JD King but the offense may struggle for the first time in years. Senior QB Taylor Cornelius is the presumed starter but graduate transfer Dru Brown could beat him out. Whoever is under center will be hoping that WRs Jalen McCleskey and Dillon Stoner can pick up the slack after the departures of Washington and Ateman. If you’re a bettor, Oklahoma State will be an interesting team to handicap. The schedule starts favorable with four straight home games (Missouri State, South Alabama, Boise State, Texas Tech) and then features two winnable road games before their bye week (Kansas and Kansas State). I would pick them to win most of those games, but chances are you can safely take the points against Boise State, Texas Tech and Kansas State. It’s possible that the Cowboys are 6-1 and riding high heading into their October 27th matchup against Texas, but I think it will be fool’s gold so don’t let them sucker you into a late season bet.

Players to Watch

Honorable Mentions

Justice Hill, RB, Oklahoma State: Hill has put together two very encouraging seasons in his first two years as a Cowboy. He averages 5.5 yards per carry and topped 200+ carries and 1,000+ yards in each season. In 2017 he increased his scoring production with 15 rushing TDs. He also got heavily involved in the passing game with 31 receptions and 190 receiving yards. He’s a bit undersized at 185lb but I would expect him to bulk up a bit after another offseason of training. Hill’s production was mostly overshadowed by the high powered passing offense led by former QB Mason Rudolph and WR James Washington. With that passing battery moving onto the NFL, Hill will see a larger share of the offense.
David Sills, WR, West Virginia: David Sills, listed at 6030/201, is a quarterback-turned-receiver who led the nation in touchdown receptions in 2017. Sills only caught 60 balls for 980 yards, both just third best on the team. Sills has had an interesting path to being one of the conference’s top receiver prospects. You may recall that years ago then USC head coach Lane Kiffin offered a scholarship to a middle schooler. That player was Sills. He ultimately went to WVU instead where he was unable to earn playing time as a quarterback. He left the school to go the JUCO route before returning to the ‘Neers for a second stint, this time at WR. You could spin this as either a positive (he’s determined) or a negative (he must not be that good if it took so long to find the field as a receiver) so I’ll reserve judgment for now. Sills has one of the leading quarterback prospects tossing him the ball so I anticipate another big season, although that touchdown rate will be impossible to keep up.
Collin Johnson, WR, Texas: If you’re looking for a high upside X receiver at the next level, look no further than Collin Johnson. He is massive at 6060/220 and would have been one of the biggest receivers in the 2017 class. The Longhorn offense struggled at times in 2017 while they switched between Shane Buechele and Sam Ehlinger. Neither signal caller was particularly great last year but Ehlinger offers some dynamism as a rusher so he’ll likely be the starter (he led the team with 381 rushing yards). At least whoever starts will boast some experience which should help Johnson improve on his 54-765-2 campaign. I want to see Johnson prove himself to be a red zone threat with that size so let’s hope the offense overall is improved. As the cliche goes, you can’t teach size.
Denzel Mims, WR, Baylor: Mims had a few huge games last year for an atrocious Baylor team. Against Oklahoma, he went for 11-192-3. Meanwhile, against Texas Tech he had 12 grabs for 152 yards and a score. Unfortunately, both of those outings, plus two other 100+ yard games, weren’t enough to push the Bears past their opposition. Part of me worries that too much of his production may have come in garbage time (full disclosure: I haven’t studied the play-by-play to see when the bulk of his yards came, it’s just a thought I had while researching). His 6030/200 frame comes with 4.50 speed so if he can prove his value to the team we’ll be talking about him as an NFL Draft hopeful.
Dalton Risner, OT, Kansas State: Risner measures in at 6050 and 300lbs and was a potential NFL Draft prospect in 2018 before deciding to return to to school. He had offseason shoulder surgery, surely one of the reasons he decided to return. Risner is a two-time First-Team All-Big 12 performer who has starting experience at both C and RT. That versatility will help increase his stock for the 2019 draft.
Dakota Allen, LB, Texas Tech: Allen is a leading IDP prospect but that’s probably not why you might recognize his name. In 2016, Allen transferred to East Mississippi Community College after being dismissed from Tech for burglary. EMCC is better known as “Last Chance U” and is the topic of a popular Netflix documentary series. Allen featured in the show’s second season. Tech’s coaches thought enough of the young man to give him another chance so here we are. Allen had 101 tackles in 2017 to go along with 2 sacks and 2 INTs. It’ll be interesting to hear what his narrative is, whether a story of redemption or of character concerns.

Will Grier, QB, West Virginia

For much of 2017, Will Grier was overshadowed by Baker Mayfield and Mason Rudolph in the Big 12 but that all changes this year when Grier figures to be the conference’s best. I briefly discussed Grier’s backstory last season so I won’t rehash it here and will instead focus on the stats and the tape. Grier completes nearly 65% of his passes and has a 3:1 TD:INT ratio for his career. Last season with West Virginia, Grier finished in the top ten in the NCAA in passer rating (162.7), yards per attempt (9.0) and touchdowns (34). Those positive stats are backed up by some positive traits that I noticed while watching tape.

When you watch Grier, it’s immediately clear that he has a confidence and a swagger that not all quarterbacks share. He trusts his arm and is not afraid to let it fly. He has one of the strongest arms of QBs I have watched so far this offseason. He can launch it 50 yards downfield on the run but can also quickly fire the ball to the sideline on a quick screen. That arm strength costs him some touch though, which was evident on a number of fade patterns near the end zone. As good as his arm strength is, Grier’s best attribute for me was his pocket presence. He does not get rattled as he slides and steps up. His feet are active while in the pocket which allows him to escape and evade with ease (his spin move reminded this Cowboy fan of one Tony Romo). All the while, he keeps his eyes downfield and scans through his progressions. I did note a few negatives in Grier’s game as well. His short yardage accuracy and mechanics can improve. He has a tendency to jump-pass short throws which often fell incomplete (or worse) in my study. Grier also had a few balls batted down at the line of scrimmage. The jump-pass tendency and the batted balls combine to lead me to believe he’s closer to 6000 than 6020 as listed. Grier shows the ability to anticipate receivers and lead them, especially on deep post routes where he’s adept at splitting the safeties, but that anticipation can be inconsistent. Grier is seemingly capable of the impossible, like his on-the-run hail mary touchdown against Kansas State, but he does have some work to do on the little things.

He’ll be hoping to continue on the path to the NFL Draft that Mayfield and Rudolph walked last season. Grier is a top ten prospect at the position for me right now so I would anticipate him going sometime in Day Two come next April.

David Montgomery, RB, Iowa State

David Montgomery was one of my favorite players to watch last season even though I wasn’t writing about him in a fantasy context since he was just a true sophomore. This year I’m excited to look at him through the fantasy lens. Montgomery’s highlight reel runs last season were abundant. According to Pro Football Focus, Montgomery broke their record for most missed tackles forced in a season, breaking Dalvin Cook’s record by more than 10%. Montgomery rushed for 1,148 yards and added 36 receptions for 296 yards. He had 11 rushing TDs which is good but not great, ranking 3rd in the conference. The biggest cause for concern is Montgomery’s yards per carry: 4.4. Of the fifty backs currently in my 2019 database, only two had averages lower than Montgomery and neither is remotely close to his quality.

The low yards per carry average, in my opinion, is a result of Montgomery’s boom-or-bust tendency. I don’t actually track the stat but it felt like he had more no-gain runs than other running back prospects I studied this offseason. When Montgomery breaks loose though, he’s dangerous. He has fantastic change of direction, cutting ability and contact balance. It doesn’t matter where on his body he is contacted, he can usually keep his progress moving forward for extra yards. He repeatedly used a back cut at the line of scrimmage paired with enough acceleration to get around the whiffing defender. Montgomery is such a good pass blocker that I stopped taking notes on positive blocks. He’s also successful in the passing game, displaying good hands that he uses to snag the ball away from his body more often than not. Iowa State trusted his route running ability enough to have him running patterns from motion or lined up wide. When split out, he often runs a short stop route; out of the backfield he’s adept at finding space in the middle of the zone. On numerous occasions, Montgomery flashed a nifty spin move as he caught the ball on swing passes; it was super effective at making the first defender miss. He does lack elite speed but all of his other attributes help cover up the deficiency.

Since Montgomery is a factor in the passing game, he has the potential to be a three down back in the pros. Right now he’s my RB1 for 2019 and I would anticipate him being in the 1.01 conversation for next season. (Film watched: Texas 2017, Oklahoma State 2017)

Rodney Anderson, RB, Oklahoma

Before I get into Anderson’s successes on the field last year, I first need to touch on the injuries that kept him off the field in 2015 and 2016. In 2015, Anderson suffered a broken leg in the second game of the season (he had just one carry before the injury). Before the 2016 season even started, he broke a bone in his neck which forced him to miss the entire season. At the time, coach Bob Stoops was quoted as saying, “there’s no paralysis or anything like that.” Hardly reassuring. Anderson also has a potential red flag in an alleged sexual assault from 2017. Ultimately the district attorney declined to press charges, saying that they were “unwarranted,” but I can’t help but think it will ding his NFL Draft stock. It’s a shame that his injury history may be disqualifying to many fantasy owners, myself included, because Anderson put out some great tape in 2017.

The word I wrote most often when watching Anderson’s tape was “momentum.” He runs with great power and above average speed and often powers over and through defenders. While he may not have elite top speed, his acceleration appears to be elite after my limited watch of his film. Despite his 6020/220 size, Anderson is able to change direction and stop on a dime when necessary. On numerous occasions he was stopped cold in the backfield only to step back to find a small seam to gain some positive yardage. Anderson is a good pass blocker and I think with more experience could become one of the best at the position in next year’s draft class. My biggest gripe with his film against Georgia was his poor showing in the passing game. I am sure he has the talent, because he showed it in other games, but his routes rarely afforded him any space and his hands failed him on at least two plays against Georgia. Hopefully further film study will put that concern to rest.

In 2017 when I was writing about Clemson WR Mike Williams, who also suffered a broken neck, I said: “Ultimately, I am too hesitant to take Williams…At this point, I’d rather be the guy who misses on Williams… [rather] than the guy who takes him despite the neck injury…and is stuck with a bad contract.” That’s basically where I am with Anderson at the moment. There’s no doubt he has talent but because of the sunk cost of drafting bust rookies in the RSO format, I will be avoiding him. (Film watched: Georgia 2017, 2017 Highlights)

Notes: In an effort to standardize the description of key positional traits, I frequently use the following adjectives: elite, good, above average, average, below average, poor. My experimental grading system uses a Madden-like approach by weighting position relevant traits on a 100-point scale; bonus or negative points are awarded based on production, size, injury history and character. Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths. So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113. This is helpful when trying to sort players by height. When watching film for a player, I typically pick two games at random to watch. For top prospects I may add a third game, while for long shots I might only devote the time for one. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
Film: 2019 NFL Draft Database by @CalhounLambeau, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, ndtscouting.com
Draft history: drafthistory.com
Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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Early 2018 RSO Contracts: RBs

By Bernard Faller

Updated: July 21st 2018

Our early RSO auction value examination moves to the running back group. No other position offers the immense value upside possible with running backs or the basement-level downside associated with uncertainty in many backfields. The investments an RSO owner makes at the position will go a long way in determining the success of their team. The reader may find links to previous articles in the series below in preparation for upcoming auctions.

Early 2018 RSO Contracts: QBs

Average RSO Running Back Contracts

Potential Workhorses (RB1-10)

The expectations for Barkley are unbelievably high (probably too high) and it is shown in his contracts. We must keep in mind the very small sample of rookies in RSO auctions, and one auction really distorted his price upward but even without that auction, Barkley still ranks as one of the highest paid players in RSO auctions. Gurley, Bell, Johnson, and Elliott all bestow 2,000+ yard and 350+ touch upside for lucky owners. Gurley likely sees some regression after one of the biggest fantasy seasons in recent memory. Bell might start slow if he shows up late again due to his ongoing contract negotiation with Pittsburgh and has longer term question marks after this season. Johnson carries increased downside with a bad offensive line and new quarterback at the helm in Arizona. Elliott does not have the same type of upside as the other three in this group for PPR leagues.

Second year players fill six of the next seven highest contracts. Kamara does not fit cleanly in this group of players but should see a slight increase in workload following Mark Ingram’s suspension. His volume ceiling remains closer to 250 compared to the 350+ the top backs absorb which, combined with likely touchdown and efficiency regression in 2018, keeps him out of the top tier backs. Hunt led the league in rushing last year, the second year in a row a rookie (Elliott in 2016) has pulled off the feat. He remains a key piece for the Chiefs but the offense is riskier with second year Patrick Mahomes taking over at quarterback for the first season as NFL starter. Cook returns from an ACL-tear after playing only four games last year. Jerick McKinnon moving to San Francisco vacates a big chunk of receiving work in the backfield which is good news for Cook when he is healthy. Fournette is the focus of the Jacksonville offense and the Jaguars added top free agent lineman Andrew Norwell to the mix this offseason. He struggled with lower body injuries the last two seasons. Gordon‘s 16-game average over the last two seasons is 297 carries, 1,650 total yards, 54 receptions, and 13 touchdowns. His offensive line run blocking is near the bottom but could improve with some positive injury luck though the perpetually unlucky Chargers have already lost Hunter Henry for the year.

Committees, Rookies, and Bad Situations (RB11-26)

McCaffrey’s workload was very similar to Kamara’s last year and was near the top of backs with a 70% snap rate. He gets a big PPR boost. Mixon possesses one of the best all-around skill-sets of any young back. The offensive line is a mess despite key offseason additions and underrated Gio Bernard will take significant work, particularly in the receiving game. Freeman ranked no lower than 14^th in PPR PPG the last three years though dropping significantly each year. Fellow back Tevin Coleman’s significant presence limits Freeman’s touches. No legitimate early down competition exists for Howard in Chicago. New head coach Matt Nagy will employ a more pass-heavy scheme which favors fellow back Tarik Cohen as Howard is one of the worst pass catching backs in the league. McCoy should rank as one of the top volume backs in 2018 with significant receiving work. The Bills offensive situation is among the worst in the league after losing three quality offensive linemen, a complete unknown at QB, and limited receiving weapons. The current allegations against McCoy make him a massive risk. McKinnon lands in a great scheme which fits his skill-set superbly. He may not receive the huge volume in San Francisco of other running back touch leaders.

This is the point where RSO owners start paying for the non-Barkley rookies. Guice, Penny, Chubb, Jones, and Michel find themselves among the next nine highest contracts. Guice should dominate rushing down work behind a good offensive in what should be a balanced offense for Washington. Receiving specialist Chris Thompson limits his receiving game work. Seattle head coach Pete Carroll said the team envisions Penny, a great size/speed specimen, as a “three-down back” after taking him in the first round of the NFL draft. Penny was horrific as a pass protector in college and plays behind a very questionably Seahawk offensive line. Chubb, a strong stout north south runner, will battle Carlos Hyde for work in Cleveland. Like Guice, Chubb’s role will be limited with pass-catching specialist Duke Johnson on hand if he takes the early down spot. The explosive Jones benefits from very limited competition in the Tampa Bay backfield. His relatively slight stature may result in limited touches on a weekly basis. Michel has a great all around skill-set for a great New England offense. His role is uncertain in a deep, diverse running back group and he must clean up his fumbling issues from college.

The Titans’ new staff handpicked Dion Lewis who probably fits the new offense better than Henry. Henry will have a significant role but is more game script dependent than Lewis. Ingram’s upside is RB1 production once back from suspension. The downside is a trip to Sean Payton’s doghouse and complete fantasy irrelevancy (See Willie Snead last year) with his suspension replacements showing well. He is a risky buy. Not a lot of talent exists behind Ajayi in Philadelphia with Corey Clement and a 35 year old Darren Sproles returning from an ACL tear as the top competition for touches, plus averaged 5.8 YPC behind a great OL there. The Eagles have shown a penchant for using deep committees under head coach Doug Pederson no matter the personnel. Opportunity exists for Drake who displayed true excellence following Jay Ajayi’s trade and heads a depth chart with only 35 year old Frank Gore and 4^th round rookie Kalen Ballage. Drake is a very lean back with extensive injury history and only held consistent fantasy relevance after Ajayi moved and fellow back Damien Williams was injured. Miller logged one of the highest snap percentages in the league (69%) among running backs in 2017 and should see increased touchdown opportunities with better QB play. Houston’s awful running scheme and league-worst offensive line, which did not add significant pieces in the offseason, caps efficiency and yardage total.

Question Marks (RB27+)

Collins came out of nowhere becoming one of the better rushers last year for Baltimore. Overall usage may be limited by more complete backs on roster, Allen and Dixon. Freeman should dominate touches in Denver with a solid all-around skill-set. The Broncos have a strange fascination with Devontae Booker in a questionable offense with new quarterback. Johnson’s role in Detroit’s committee ranks among the most difficult to forecast. Riddick projects as the better pass-catcher with Blount taking a lot of short yardage work. The Indianapolis backfield’s fantasy value largely depends on the health of Andrew Luck. New head coach Frank Reich likely uses a committee approach consisting of rookies Hynes and Wilkins with second year pro Mack. No Green Bay running back ranks higher than 37^th in average salary for a high scoring Rodgers-led attack. That situation will change with word of Jones’ suspension as Williams will look to cement his place at the top of the depth chart. Crowell walks in with the upper-hand for a low-upside early down job on a poor New York team with bad offensive line. All kinds of questions exist for the new Jon Gruden Raiders. That uncertainty extends to the Oakland ground game where RSO owners are not buying into any of the current backs. 32 year old Lynch leads a group which added Doug Martin to the mix this offseason.

Bio: Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics. He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time. Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

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The Watch List: 2018 AAC Preview

By Bob Cowper

Updated: July 21st 2018

Storylines to Watch

Heisman Favorite: McKenzie Milton, QB, UCF. Milton thrived under coach Scott Frost last season, throwing for 4,037 yards and 37 TDs. It remains to be seen how Milton progresses under new head coach Josh Heupel but I assume he’ll do just fine with such a strong supporting cast. He may be the next in the line of “great college quarterbacks who can’t make it as a pro” but that won’t diminish my enjoyment watching him in 2018.
Darkhorse Heisman Candidate: Ed Oliver, DT, Houston. Picking a defensive lineman for the Heisman is about as darkhorse as it gets. Oliver is a beast who will be in the conversation for a top draft pick so it stands to reason he may earn a Heisman vote or two like Roquan Smith received in 2017.
Offensive Player of the Year: Darrell Henderson, RB, Memphis. Henderson will have a strong season but will never get the publicity of Milton so I wanted to honor Henderson here while giving Milton my AAC Heisman vote. Per Phil Steele, Memphis ranks 11th in the nation in offensive line starts returning for 2018, so Henderson will have an experienced line blocking for him. Add in the fact that the Tigers lose their star QB and WR and we’ll be looking at an offensive attack more focused on the run this season.
Defensive Player of the Year: Ed Oliver, DT, Houston. I hope you’re not getting tired of hearing Ed Oliver’s name because there is more of him to come in this preview and I’ll be talking about him all season long.
Newcomer of the Year: Tavion Thomas, RB, Cincinnati. Thomas was a highly sought recruit who earned offers from the likes of Ohio State, Oklahoma and Alabama. Thomas committed to the Sooners before changing his mind in January. He was the 17th ranked back according to 247Sports and was #29 per Phil Steele. Thomas has a shot at emerging from Cinci’s young but crowded backfield. The Bearcats return two sophomores in Gerrid Doaks and Michael Warren who had 520-2 and 334-1 respectively as freshmen.
Underclassman to Watch: Gabriel Davis, WR, UCF. The Knights are losing two of their top three receivers (Tre’Quan Smith and Jordan Akins) so the door is open for Davis to take on a bigger role in 2018. In 2017 as a true freshman his line was 27-391-4. He has a big body at 6’3″ and 219lb so it’ll be interesting to see if the high volume offense of UCF vaults him into 2020 draft consideration.
Best QB-WR Tandem: McKenzie Milton and Dredrick Snelson. I thought about being flippant here and selecting Zach Abey and Malcolm Perry, see below, but I figured I should give some real analysis instead. Ultimately I chose Milton and Snelson more out of necessity than desire. The AAC only returns one of its top ten receivers from last year so my options were quite limited here. That sole returner, East Carolina’s Trevon Brown, will be playing with a new passer this season so I couldn’t go with that tandem. Snelson is the Knights leading returning receiver; he had 46-695-8 last year. Snelson was Phil Steele’s 35th ranked recruit in his class so he has some potential and could land on NFL Draft radars as a junior.
Best RB Corps: Navy. I haven’t had such an easy choice yet in my season preview research. The Midshipmen return two 1,000+ yard rushers in Zach Abey and Malcolm Perry. They also return FB Anthony Gargiulo who rushed for 424 yards and averaged 5.6 yards per carry. Notice that I left off position designations for Abey and Perry because there’s an interesting battle, forgive the pun, between them heading into this season. They both had starts at QB last year but Perry is the better athlete (Perry played at WR while Abey started at QB). Reports are that Abey will be moving to WR which we know is not a premier assignment in a triple option offense. I’ll bet that head coach Ken Niumatalolo has been game planning all offseason and keeping both players on the field at the same time will make Navy even harder to defend.
Coach on the Hottest Seat: Randy Edsall, UCONN. I don’t really get the allure of Randy Edsall. He left the Huskies back in 2010 for a five year stint at Maryland that netted him just 22 wins. Then Connecticut brought him back in 2017 after firing Bob Diaco. Edsall has a 73-72 career record with Connecticut but the team was dreadful last year at 3-9. Those three wins were by a combined seventeen points and one of them was over 4-7 Holy Cross from the FCS. Not exactly a winning resume. When I researched Edsall for this preview, I was reminded of his recent tirade about paying college players. While I agree with the idea, going off on that tangent probably isn’t the best way to keep your job with an NCAA member institution. Neither is suing the school’s Citizen Ethics Advisory Board.

Teams to Watch

Memphis (10-3 in 2017)

I’m really interested to see what Memphis can do in 2018 after losing so much with QB Riley Ferguson and WR Anthony Miller moving on. As I’ve discussed elsewhere in this preview, the Tigers have a number of offensive weapons leftover including RB Darrell Henderson, do-everything dynamo Tony Pollard and TE Joey Magnifico. The Tigers won the West division last season with a 7-1 record. They return 15 starters from that team and have a favorable non-conference schedule (easily winnable home games against Mercer, Georgia State and South Alabama). An odd midseason matchup against SEC foe Missouri could end up being the make-or-break contest. Memphis will easily hold onto the division mantle but a sneaky win against Missouri would catapult them into playoff contention (it would be a better Power 5 win than UCF had last year over Maryland). Memphis may have the widest range of possible outcomes this upcoming season in the AAC, because of the uncertainty of replacing two huge pieces of the offense, but if I had to bet (and hey I may soon be able to, thank you New Jersey!) I would take the over and pick them to improve on last year’s 10 wins.

Cincinnati (4-8 in 2017)

What is a Bearcat anyway? Nobody seems to know for sure, unless you accept this tenuous explanation from the school. One thing I do know about Cincinnati is that they will be on the come this season. Per Phil Steele, Cinci returns 78% of their offensive yards, the most in the conference. They also have a soft non-conference schedule after opening at UCLA. They have an annual game against Miami Ohio which the Bearcats have won every season since 2006; two weeks later they have another winnable, albeit more difficult, MAC matchup against Ohio. Between those two, Alabama A&M comes to town which Cincinnati should beat easily. They get Navy and USF at home which will help them steal a win against one of the higher ranked AAC teams. The offense features a number of underclassman running backs that could be either a blessing or a curse for head coach Luke Fickell. The experienced QB Hayden Moore returns but may be beat out by true freshman Ben Bryant. It may be a big if, but if Fickell can juggle his myriad backfield options, Cinci could surprise in the East and get to eight wins. Even if that may be a stretch, I like Fickell’s chances of getting to 7-5 in his second season at the helm.

Players to Watch

Honorable Mentions

McKenzie Milton, QB, UCF: Milton was fantastic in 2017 and should light up AAC defenses again this season, even under a new coach. Jeff Heupel was the offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach for fellow NFL prospect Drew Lock at Missouri; Heupel also worked closely with NFL quarterbacks Sam Bradford and Landry Jones at OU. So, Heupel’s quarterback coach credentials could help increase Milton’s stock. Unfortunately, I think it’s going to be an uphill battle for Milton as he is severely undersized at 5110/180. It’s a shame because he has a great arm and makes some of his throws look effortless. Another 4,000 yard and 35 TD season should be expected.
Ryquell Armstead, RB, Temple: Armstead followed up a promising sophomore season (919-14) with a disappointing junior campaign (604-5). Interestingly, he had the exact same number of carries in each season (156). One positive of 2017 was that Armstead got involved with 14 receptions, although for only 75 yards. Armstead has good size (5110, 205) but needs to show that he can be the lead back and wrest carries away from veteran David Hood.
Adrian Killins, RB, UCF: Listed weights for Killins range between 150-170 but either way he’s light and slight at 5080. What Killins lacks in size, he makes up in speed. He offered up some bulletin board material last year leading into the Peach Bowl when he boasted that Auburn hadn’t seen speed like he and the Knights had. DraftScout.com predicts Killins speed will range between 4.40-4.59. After watching some highlights, this one specifically, I’m going to guess he’s safely in the 4.40 discussion. Killins was involved as a receiver with 25 receptions in 2017; he totaled 959 yards and 11 TDs from scrimmage on 148 touches. He also has some limited experience returning kicks which is where he could be deployed early in his pro career.
Tony Pollard, WR/RB/KR, Memphis: Pollard is an all-purpose threat. In 2017 he had 10 touchdowns: 2 rushing, 4 receiving, 4 kick return. He only had 66 touches from scrimmage but averaged over 11 yards per touch. He’ll still be behind RB Darrell Henderson in the offensive pecking order but with WR Anthony Miller gone, Pollard will see more snaps. It’s not impossible that Pollard could parlay his size (5110/200) and versatility into a “Jaylen Samuels lite” draft profile.
Justin Hobbs, WR, Tulsa: Hobbs finished 2017 with a respectable 55-830-3 line on a bad Tulsa team that averaged just 173 yards passing per game. Hobbs has not showed a knack for finding the end zone (just 9 career TDs in three seasons) but has a redzone worthy frame at 6040/218. I watched a 2017 highlight package of Hobbs and was disappointed to see how infrequently he used that size to his advantage by playing in the air. I’ll monitor Hobbs this year to see if he improves in that regard.
Joey Magnifico, TE, Memphis: Here we have another player who stands to benefit from Memphis WR Anthony Miller leaving for the NFL. You may be quick to counter that I’m attributing too much added production to Henderson, Pollard and Magnifico but you need to remember what a black hole Miller was in this offense. He had 100+ touches in both 2016 and 2017 that need to be replaced. Magnifico is listed at 6040/235 which puts him on the smaller side of the last two tight end classes. Size wise he comps to Evan Engram or Gerald Everett but DraftScout.com predicts he’ll be significantly slower. Magnifico has just 30 career receptions (365 yards, 5 TDs) so this is pure speculation here but he’s likely the best TE in the conference so so let’s keep an eye on him.

Ed Oliver, DT, Houston

Regardless of what source you’re looking at, Ed Oliver is about as unanimous a selection as you’ll find for the nation’s best at their position. He checks in at 6030/290 and is projected in the 4.90 range. He ran a 4.87 as a high school prospect and in my experience, guys tend to get a tick faster once they are on campus and start training at a higher level. NFL.com quotes some sick athletic feats as well in the vertical and broad jump categories. No prospect in 2018, at 290+ pounds, would have a better profile. Taven Bryan and Kolton Miller would come close, and both were first rounders, but Oliver would have them beat by nearly a full tenth of a second in the 40 yard dash. Oliver is in the running for the top pick and I’ll bet that some team is going to get tremendous value for him at #2 or #3 after a quarterback inevitably rises up the draft board. By no means am I an expert when it comes to defensive line play so I’m not going to try and break down his technique but it’s impossible to watch Oliver and not see the impact he has on the game every single snap. Considering the attention offensive lines pay him, his stats are great: 73 tackles, 16.5 tackles for loss and 5.5 sacks in 2017. I watched a fair bit of Oliver last season so I did not do a new round of film study for this preview (honestly, seems kind of pointless… he’s good), but I encourage you to take four minutes and watch this highlight reel entitled “Absolute Domination” which just about sums him up.

Darrell Henderson, RB, Memphis

Henderson is a 5090/200 running back who made fantastic use of his 154 touches last season. On those touches, 24 of which were receptions, Henderson averaged 8.96 yards per and scored 11 TDs. In my database of nearly fifty running backs for this class, Henderson led them all in yards per carry, by nearly a yard too. He also had a productive freshman season with over 700 scrimmage yards and 8 TDs. As I’ve mentioned ad nauseam in this preview, Memphis has a lot of offensive production to replace in 2018. I expect to see Henderson’s touches creep closer to 200 and while his rate stats will surely decrease he will still be productive and could be a fast riser. Henderson uses his squat body type to run with a balanced combination of speed and power, often pinballing off defenders. He showed me great contact balance and an ability to stay upright, especially while avoiding ankle tackles. He accelerates well and has a top speed in the 4.50 range, in my opinion. His hands need some work and he appears to be a hesitant (and inexperienced) blocker but that may improve with experience. Henderson offers the Memphis offense versatility which they used to create mismatches for Henderson and his teammates. In one perfect example against SMU, Henderson motioned out of the backfield to line up in the slot. The linebackers shift and it’s clear there’s some confusion. Amidst that confusion, WR Anthony Miller splits the linebackers and scores on a touch pass over the middle. If the defenders were not concerned about Henderson playing out of the slot the touchdown never would have materialized. If I were ranking today, Henderson probably cracks my Top 20 at the position but I was impressed enough with his power/speed combination to reserve final judgment. (Film watched: UCF 2017, SMU 2017)

Trevon Brown, WR, East Carolina

Brown was not on my radar when I started researching the AAC for this preview. He stood out, however, when I realized how few productive receivers were returning to the AAC this season. Brown finished 2017 with a line of 60-1,069-7 for the Pirates, making him the only one of the conference’s top ten receivers coming back to campus. His 17.8 yards per catch average led the conference by receivers with 60+ receptions. Brown had a solid sophomore season in 2015 (41-496-4) but was forced to sit out 2016 after being declared academically ineligible. Since he’s not a buzzworthy name, there was not much film of Brown to find online. I was able to watch one full game and a highlight reel package. His game against Cinci ended up looking good on the stat sheet (9-270-2) but it was buoyed by a huge 95 yard score. It concerned me that a number of Brown’s best routes went untargeted by the quarterback. Part of that is likely the fact that Brown lines up almost exclusively on the left and his right handed QB just didn’t have the time or ability to read the full field. Brown shows strong hands, in fact I did not note a single drop. He runs a limited route tree but found success on numerous post routes. On those posts, he used his body to shield the defender while making the catch with his hands. In general, he has average speed and acceleration but he does have an extra gear when he wants to shift into it making him dangerous after the catch. It did concern me that Brown appears to be uninterested on plays that are designed to go away from him, rarely did I see him try to sell a route or hold a block when he knew he wouldn’t see action. I’m hoping that Brown’s upward statistical trajectory continues because he has decent enough size and speed (6020/211, DraftScout.com predicts in the 4.55 range) to get drafted as a late round flyer a la Cedrick Wilson from this year. (Film watched: Cincinnati 2017, Highlights 2017)

Notes: In an effort to standardize the description of key positional traits, I frequently use the following adjectives: elite, good, above average, average, below average, poor. My experimental grading system uses a Madden-like approach by weighting position relevant traits on a 100-point scale; bonus or negative points are awarded based on production, size, injury history and character. Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths. So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113. This is helpful when trying to sort players by height. Then watching film for a player, I typically pick two games at random to watch. For top prospects I may add a third game, while for long shots I might only devote the time for one. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
Film: 2019 NFL Draft Database by @CalhounLambeau, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, ndtscouting.com
Draft history: drafthistory.com
Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes

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Early 2018 RSO Contracts: QBs

By Bernard Faller

Updated: July 4th 2018

My annual look at early RSO auction values begins at the quarterback position in 2018. The series was designed to give the reader help in planning for upcoming auctions by looking at actual RSO auctions already finished. The data comes from a variety of different types of leagues with varying scoring rules and starting requirements which can drastically alter player values so be cautious in expecting values to match your particular league. The information does provide a useful starting point for examining how RSO owners value players at a certain position relative to one another and the length of contract they are willing to invest.

Average RSO Quarterback Contracts

Paying up (QB1-10)

Aaron Rodgers once again comes in as the most expensive quarterback. The Packers lack any real speed threat at wide receiver which could hurt his efficiency somewhat but he is the best pure passer in the business. Wilson seems an easy choice between him and Watson or Wentz at their similar contracts. I detailed the potential pitfalls for Watson and Wentz coming after their super seasons in 2017. No one should be paying for Luck at his QB7 price point given his substantial injury risk. Newton and Brady provide similar upside at comparable cost without the risk. The top-10 finishes with an interesting group of quarterbacks. Cousins finished as a QB1 each of the last three seasons and now moves to a Minnesota team this year with arguably better receiving weapons. The Vikings feature a far superior defense and better running game which might limit Cousins passing volume. We only have seven starts over the last two seasons to evaluate Garoppolo from but that sample is truly extraordinary. He completed 68% of his passes, averaged over 280 passing yards per game, and owns a monstrous 8.7 yards per attempt over that span on his way to a 7-0 record without a single poor start. His quick release and consistent down-to-down play are easily evident on tape and only confirm the statistics. Brees produced his worst fantasy season in recent memory thanks largely to a massive drop-off in passing attempts. While we likely are through with the upper-600 yearly pass attempts which were previously routine, look for a bump in yardage and touchdowns this season.

The Value Tier (QB11-20)

This tier of players gives us both some nice reliable options and younger quarterbacks with upside but lots of question marks. The tier is bookended by two second year pros. Mahomes possesses an arsenal of quality receiving weapons in KC and a cannon for an arm with good athleticism. Will Reid be able to reign in his poor decision making and inconsistent accuracy? Trubisky enters his sophomore year with a year of experience under his belt and new head coach Matt Nagy from the Reid coaching line. Chicago undoubtedly upgraded the receiving options but one-year wonder Allen Robinson, Taylor Gabriel, Trey Burton, and rookie Anthony Miller are largely unproven. Stafford represents a safe floor with no less than 4,200 passing yards in each of the last seven seasons. Prescott looked like a rising young star his first year and a half with a super offensive line and run game. He looked like a backup-level quarterback the second half of last season who completely fell apart when the offensive line took an injury-hit and Elliott missed time. Goff went from one of the worst rookie seasons ever to one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league under Sean McVay. Mariota and Winston enter the the final year of their rookie deals showing flashes of starting-level talent but neither living up to their lofty draft status so far. Winston starts the year with a three-game suspension and will try to reign in his mistake-prone tendencies. Mariota gets a new head coach but questions remain whether he is simply a quality game-manager. Roethlisberger and Ryan give us good value at the 16^th and 17^th spot. The Steeler quarterback has received a physical beating over the years but is still a quality fantasy and real-life producer at the position when on the field. Ryan is a good bounce-back candidate who should see big boosts in yardage and touchdowns. Carr has been one of the least efficient starters in the league over his four years in the NFL. His contract could be cut following 2018 if things go poorly in the first year of the Gruden regime.

Going Cheap (QB21+)

Our rookie quarterbacks start coming off the board now (Note there was a limited sample of auctions with rookies as most went in rookie drafts). Rosen leads the way soon followed by Mayfield, Jackson, and Darnold while Allen is an afterthought near the bottom of our top-40 list. Jackson is a quality stash on your roster. He has, by far, the most work to do to become an NFL-ready quarterback but is capable of 1,000 yard rushing seasons which translates to massive fantasy upside. Allen probably ends up on a lot of my rosters at his next-to nothing cost. Quarterbacks drafted that high almost always make it through their rookie contracts as starters, even bad ones (see Blake Bortles), and his athleticism with unworldly arm strength give him underrated fantasy possibilities. Smith just posted his best season as a pro at the age of 33 and moves to pass-friendly Washington where Kirk Cousins posted multiple QB1 seasons. The system and lots of receiving talent make a Rich Gannon-type late career finish possible. No quarterback provides more value than Rivers if you are not spending big at the position. He finished 8^th or better in passing yards each of the last five seasons with four top-5 finishes and 12^th or better in touchdowns with three top-5 finishes. Taylor, Bradford, Flacco, and McCown/Bridgewater are wild cards who all have 1^st round rookie picks drafted by their teams behind them. The amount of games played this season by each largely depends on team circumstances where competitive teams probably keep the veteran in. Injury concerns also follow Bradford. Bortles, Manning, Tannehill, and Dalton all surprisingly enter the year with no significant competition, either through the draft or free agency, to replace them. They each should be safe for another season. You will not feel particularly good riding anyone of them each week but some combination of the four could make for an intriguing super-low cost weekly matchup-based unit for your team with all pricing in QB30+ territory.

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FA Expectancy – Jimmy Graham

By Nick Andrews

Updated: July 4th 2018

Our Free Agent (FA) Expectancy series is back! Throughout the offseason, I will be preparing a collection of articles that will focus on free agents and trade candidates. The articles will discuss the player in question, and what the move does to their value, as well as what their landing spot means for their new and old teams.

Jimmy Graham – TE – Green Bay Packers

When Jimmy Graham signed with the Packers in March there was plenty of excitement for owners that held his services. He was moving to an offense that features one of the best quarterbacks ever, Aaron Rodgers, and with the departure of Jordy Nelson, ARod would be looking for a new favorite red zone target. Davante Adams has emerged as a talented receiver but after Randall Cobb, who hasn’t done much since his breakout 2014 campaign, there are not many names that would warrant consideration for consistent targets. This must be a perfect match for Jimmy Graham to reclaim his TE1 title; or is it?

Since 2009 the Green Bay tight end has had a significantly reduced role in terms of target share and usage. The last two years Green Bay TEs have shrunk down to 15.8% and 10% of total targets and 8.2% and 6.2% for the team’s TE1 individual target share. The ceiling at this point may be similar to Richard Rodgers’ 2015 season where despite tight ends only being targets 18%, Rodgers managed to hold a 14.8% individual target share with 85 targets. This would have been good for a low-end TE1 target share in fantasy last season.

Many would be quick to point out that Graham is a far superior talent to Richard Rodgers and should, therefore, be able to outproduce his greatest statistics. Well, if we look back to the earlier career of Aaron Rodgers when he had the talented Jermichael Finley at tight end the stats are surprisingly not much different. In 2011 and 2012 Finley had 92 targets and 87 targets for a team target share of 16.7% and 15.6% respectively. This was also before every NFL team was running more 11 personnel (3WR, 1TE, 1RB) than any other type of formation so if a blocking TE is needed for running plays don’t expect to see Graham on the field. If Green Bay is creative with their schemes, they should find ways to use Graham as the third receiver and instead have Mercedes Lewis, who was also acquired, be the more traditional TE in 11 personnel formation. We will see though.

All in all, it is still likely that Graham will be a strong play at the weak tight end slot in fantasy. It should not be expected, however, that he would return anywhere close to his wide receiver level of production that he had with Drew Brees in New Orleans like some seem to think. If he is available in your auction this year look for a two year deal between $7-10MM annually. This way if he is productive in Green Bay you have him at about the highest TE Franchise Tag anyways without having to use your tag this season. If he has an expiring contract this year I would only be looking to resign him if either his contract is another one year deal or his annual value is low enough that if he doesn’t work out/retires in 2019 and beyond his cap space would not be a huge detriment. Without know his statistics through the first four weeks of this season I would suggest in the range of either $8MM/1year or $18MM/3year as a respectable contract for resigning Graham this season.

Seattle Seahawks Identity Problem

Fans of football have often reflected on the Seahawks trading for Jimmy Graham in 2015 as a knee-jerk reaction to the famed interception that cost them a second consecutive the season prior. The logic behind it sort of makes sense. If they had a big receiver that could they could trust in the end zone to “climb the ladder” for a jump ball instead of trying to throw inside to a smaller receiver they would have been champions twice over. They decided to trade away a key offensive line piece, center Max Unger, to try and solve this issue but in return ended up losing their team identity of being aggressive with their run game and defense. They haven’t looked the same since that Super Bowl 49 loss.

With Graham now gone and most of their defensive superstars either gone or aging it will be interesting to see how the Seahawks view their best strategy to win moving forward. They brought in Brandon Marshall to see if he still has some game left in him but at 34 and coming off multiple lower body surgeries it’s not even a guarantee that he makes the roster let alone has any fantasy value. The team drafted rookie running back Rashaad Penny in the first round which was a surprising move to many. This may indicate that the team wants to return to a game-controlling, run-first offense. Without much improvement on the offensive line, however, this may be difficult to accomplish so expectations for Penny should be kept at an RB3-4 max until we see how he will be utilized in both the passing game and carries per game. Ultimately, it comes down to how effective Russell Wilson and Doug Baldwin can be and those three players (Wilson, Baldwin, and Penny) are the only players to expect game-to-game consistency in fantasy this season. Tyler Lockett does have upside but he hasn’t looked as explosive since his leg injury in 2016. He will have great games but be a ghost for more than one would feel comfortable as their third or fourth option at receiver.

Make sure to continue to read more Free Agency Expectancy articles throughout the offseason to be prepared for your summer Auctions. Have a player that you want me to evaluate? Leave me a message on Twitter @NickAndrews_RSO.

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