2018 Rookie RSO Extension Candidates
The 2018 NFL rookie class plays the final year of four-year contracts in the NFL and most Reality Sports Online leagues this season. These players represent extension candidates (among others on the final year of their RSO contracts) for RSO managers which utilize the extension option in their leagues. This article examines the 2018 rookie class as to suitability for RSO extensions. It also provides a useful starting place in evaluating trade targets based on extension possibilities. Draft information comes from DLF Post-Draft Superflex ADP data. Actual draft position may vary greatly between leagues.
Round 1
The tables below show players with overall and positional ADP, projected positional contract price, and recommendations on whether to extend the player. The decision to extend really breaks down to if you believe the extension contract is cheaper than the market auction price or value for the player. The below are general recommendations for extensions as there are a large number of factors to consider including league size, projected salary cap space in the league, the estimated free agent pool, and your own cap/roster situation among many others. We should also note the NFL salary cap (and with it the RSO cap) is set to explode after the diminished cap effects of the COVID-reduced cap in 2020 are finished working their way through the NFL cap to go along with an eventual revenue boost from the new NFL television deal. This, in general, makes gambles on extension contracts more palatable. Many leagues also use the Reality Sports Online rookie option for 1st round draft picks adding an additional year to the contract which would eliminate the 2018 rookies drafted in the first round of your leagues from extension consideration if the GM exercised the option.
There is an extremely limited supply of running backs with the potential touch volume in the rushing and passing game as Barkley. Coming off an ACL tear with diminished early performance might present lower extension prices and a unique opportunity to take advantage. Chubb might be the best pure rusher in the NFL. He’s a solid back-end RB1 but without an elite-level range of outcomes due to his quarterback for the NFL or fantasy football, stuck in the middle. Mayfield and Darnold are quarterbacks stuck as QB2s in fantasy. Neither is among the best passers in the NFL nor possesses much rushing upside. This implies a limited fantasy ceiling that you will likely be able to obtain for less than the probable extension price. On the other end, Jackson displayed league-winning upside already and a rock-solid borderline QB1 floor with over 1,000 rushing yards each of the last two seasons as a starting quarterback. The price will be high but worth it in the right fantasy leagues. Moore possesses all the traits you look for when signing a wide receiver to a long-term contract. He put up quality production dating back to college with sub-par quarterback play, wins in a variety of ways on multiple levels of the field, and is an excellent athlete to boot. He might not rack up elite numbers but is a young foundation piece, particularly in deeper leagues, who probably has not hit his prime yet.
Round 2
Ridley is among the best route runners at the wide receiver position and another receiver productive since he entered the NFL. The only question is whether his extension price will be nearer the elite echelon rather than just an upper-level price. Kirk and Gallup represent speculative low-cost extensions for players who flashed for decent portions of their rookie contracts and probably will be with new teams next season. The reasons for extending Sutton mirror that of Moore. Sutton is a prototype dominant X receiver with quality production despite awful quarterback play. I was hoping a slow start coming off his ACL-tear last year would drive down his price but that might not happen now with Jeudy out. Allen locked up a massive extension coming off a MVP-type 2020 season. I don’t think it is reasonable to expect that type of production going forward but his rushing skills and massive arm give him one of the highest weekly ceilings among quarterbacks. The extension price might push into the very top of the position which could make for a difficult decision. Gesicki flashed at times but has not developed his route-running to consistently beat good coverage despite his athletic gifts and has shown to be more of a situational matchup player in the NFL. Those aren’t the type of tight ends that typically get the playing time and target load necessary to produce consistent fantasy points.
Round 3
We might consider Hines a specialty extension candidate as a passing game specialist whose role doesn’t change much no matter if the lead is injured. Indianapolis just extended him so there is some security. Consider extending Hines in deeper leagues. Everyone waits for the Eagles to finally move on from Ertz and give Goedert the opportunity he deserves as a top-6 PFF tight end each of his first three seasons. He could get that chance during his second contract but it might now be for a different team as the Eagles somehow have not extended him. Many people mistakenly thought Chark could morph into a potentially high target receiver after a breakout 2019 season propped up by a limited receiver room and an easy schedule. The reality is his skills translate better as a complimentary deep receiving option for an NFL team. The extension price will likely be too high for RSO GMs wanting to take a gamble on him. While Andrews projects at the higher end of extension contracts for tight ends, it probably won’t be at the very top. He just signed a massive contract extension in Baltimore and is one of the only proven receiving weapons for the Ravens. The Baltimore offense caps the ceiling for Andrews but he is still one of the few tight ends who likely averages 5-6 targets a game.
Bio: Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics. He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time. Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.
