Monthly Archives: March 2019

The Watch List: 2019 NFL Draft Previews, Sleepers

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By Bob Cowper

Updated: March 23rd 2019

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout the Winter and Spring as The Watch List will preview the top prospects and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your valuable draft capital.

In this installment of The Watch List, we are going to take a closer look at some of my favorite under-the-radar NFL Draft prospects.  These guys are all undervalued right now and I think fantasy owners can find a good return on their investment.  In addition to the four players I’ve highlighted, one at each offensive skill position, I added a few honorable mentions at the bottom.  I am officially suffering from NFL Draft hysteria, so without further ado, let’s get to it!

Eric Dungey, QB, Syracuse

  • Measurables: 6040/226 (per Sports-Reference.com; did not participate in the NFL Combine)
  • 2018 Stats: 226-371, 60.9% completion percentage, 2,868 yards, 18 TDs, 9 INTs, 754 rushing yards, 15 rushing TDs

Eric Dungey made his first impression on me in 2017 when he stole a victory against #2 Clemson and their fearsome defense (278 passing yards, 3 TDs and 61 rushing yards).  Dungey followed up that performance with another plus outing in 2018 (250 yards and 2 rushing TDs).  The local Syracuse newspaper did an interesting multi-piece feature on Dungey where they dug into his “warrior-like persona” and his push back on the “injury prone” label.  The article regarding his injury history was most informative to me because I had already made the assumption that he was injury prone.  However, Dungey and his family question the school’s decision to keep him out of numerous games for a concussion despite him being cleared by doctors.  Dungey did miss most of the Notre Dame game in 2018 with a back injury but thankfully he was healthy otherwise so we were able to get a full-season sample size.

Dungey completes just over 60% of his passes which is just good enough but not ideal.  When I watched his Clemson 2018 game, I thought that Dungey threw with good accuracy and touch on short and intermediate passes, especially on screen/swing routes; he also led his receivers with anticipation.  He can be inconsistent with his mechanics and needs work on his feet.  He often throws without stepping into the pass or off his back foot.  Despite his poor footwork, Dungey showed me that he has a big arm and can place the deep ball well.  On this play, he has the rush in his face, fades away and throws a dime to the sideline.

Dungey also adds a dimension in the running game (35 career rushing yards).  He’s not an explosive runner but he is effective as a power runner near the goal line or in short yardage situations.  Part of that success surely stems from his caution-to-the-wind attitude which rallies his teammates.  He throws well enough on the move to run designed rolls and sprint outs.

Maybe it’s the fact that he wears #2.  Maybe it’s the confident personality.  Or, maybe I’m just crazy.  But, when I watch Dungey I see a poor man’s Johnny Manziel (seemingly without the off-field issues).  If teams can look past Dungey’s injury history, I think they will be getting a solid football player who could have a Taysom Hill like impact early in his career as a short yardage gadget player.  Draft Prediction: Round 5-6

 

Mike Weber, RB, Ohio State

  • Measurables: 5095/211, 4.47 40 yard dash (per the NFL Combine)
  • 2018 Stats: 172 carries, 954 yards, 5.5 yards per carry, 5 TDs; 21 receptions, 112 yards, 5.3 yards per reception, 1 TD

Mike Weber has had one of the most interesting paths to being an NFL Draft prospect. Two years ago, he looked like he could be the next star rusher for the Buckeyes. And then in 2017 he promptly lost his starting spot to true freshman JK Dobbins. Dobbins played well from the start and Weber battled through a nagging hamstring which helped Dobbins further entrench his leading role. Weber stayed in the mix though and in 2018 he nearly topped 1,000 yards. Then Weber went on to run a surprising 4.47 40 yard dash at the combine (the rest of his combine was lackluster though). You’d be forgiven if you didn’t know what to make of Weber’s draft stock.

His per-touch averages dropped in 2018 but I’m less concerned with that and more encouraged by the increase in volume. Since Weber was playing second-fiddle to Dobbins, much of his usage came when the team was winning. You could spin this as making the most of garbage time or you could spin it that the team trusted him with the ball to seal the victory. I typically lean towards the former but you can pass your own judgment.

The main reason I value Weber is that he’s a well balanced back in that he makes contributions as a runner, receiver and blocker. He has 54 career receptions, topping 20 in his two healthiest seasons. In 2016, his only as the starter, Pro Football Focus gave Weber a pass blocking grade of 88.1. For comparison, only six other backs in this draft class had a season with a higher pass blocking grade. (Full disclosure: he fared worse the last two seasons.) At the combine, he showed that he has speed and strength and that appears on tape as well.

In this play against Washington, Weber uses his speed to turn the corner against the safety and then finishes the run strong.  Finishing strong is something that I saw repeatedly; he’s not one to step out of bounds to avoid a hit.

Unfortunately, the 2018 tape available featured none of Weber’s solid receiving games.  However, in the Washington game we did get a single glimpse at how he can serve as a safety valve and use his downhill running style to pick up a first down.  Not surprisingly, he finishes this run well too.

I’ve said before that Weber is not a “sexy” name and I stand by that. Fans won’t go ga-ga for him after he’s drafted but I feel strongly that they’ll be getting a player who can fill a number of roles in an NFL backfield. If he finds himself behind a shaky incumbent, Weber could be starting come September.  At the very least, I think Weber will be utilized late in games where his running style can wear down a defense and his versatility gives the play caller options without changing personnel. Draft Prediction: Round 4-5

Hakeem Butler, WR, Iowa State

  • Measurables: 6053/227, 4.48 40 yard dash (per the NFL Combine)
  • 2018 Stats: 60 receptions, 1,318 yards, 22.0 yards per reception, 9 TDs

It’s becoming harder and harder to call Butler a “sleeper” as his momentum builds. I kept him in this piece as planned though because I still believe he’s undervalued in the fantasy football world.

Butler was the second target behind the similarly-sized Allen Lazard last season, and yet he still managed a 41-697-7 line. This year as the primary option, he improved to 60-1318-9. Where Butler’s 2018 stats really stand out is his yards per reception: 22.0. Based solely on his stats, you would assume Butler is a shifty slot receiver, however he’s really a speedy 6053/227 behemoth with a wingspan that would make a pterodactyl jealous.

Butler has the potential to be a factor in the redzone, although he did not show that much in 2018.  In fact, he caught just 3 of his 60 balls inside the twenty (for 2 TDs).  I’d like to think that that surprising stat has more to do with his deployment and the play calls than his ability.  I was encouraged by how perfect one of those redzone targets looked against Kansas State.  Butler hesitates at the snap, breaks outside and leans into the corner as the ball is thrown.  He uses this leverage to make some space for a back shoulder throw.  Butler goes up with two hands and is strong enough to hold onto the ball as he’s contacted and as the defender tries to swipe at the ball at the last moment.  It was a textbook redzone fade that gives me hope that Butler can excel in similar situations in the NFL.

That’s not to say that Butler can only be utilized in the redzone or as an X receiver.  He lines up all over the field and uses his rare combination of size, speed and strength to create mismatches all over.  He’s a feisty blocker who lacks technique but not motivation.  He uses that same physicality at the top of his routes where I saw him plant more than one defender in the grass.  In fact, defenders seem to hit the ground all around Butler.  One of my favorite highlights of Butler came in the Oklahoma game.  I remember watching this one live and was glad to find a clip online.  He catches the ball in traffic, spins out of multiple tackles and wills himself to the endzone, defenders toppling like bowling pins.

There’s one last clip I just have to show of Butler.  In this one he’s illustrating one of my favorite traits of a wide receiver, what I call “going over and through.”  Butler has such a height advantage that he’s able to reach back behind the corner and secure the catch (he adds a little YAC to this one too).

Butler certainly isn’t a perfect prospect, even if his physique may suggest otherwise.  I noted multiple drops in the Kansas State game and he was also a frequent culprit of OPI.  Despite some small question marks, Butler is currently my WR5.  I believe that he could be a steal in the second round for fantasy owners.  Draft Prediction: Round 2-3

Donald Parham, TE, Stetson

  • Measurables: 6083/243 (per the Senior Bowl; did not participate in the NFL Combine)
  • 2018 Stats: 85 receptions, 1,319 yards, 13 TDs

I have written extensively about Donald Parham since I first stumbled across him a year ago. In fact, I recently included him in my FCS NFL Draft preview. I was going to profile somebody else in this piece until I watched Parham’s highlight reel from the 2018 Morehead State game. The plays he made in that game showed me a facet of Parham’s game that I was not able to see in more limited clip packages from other games. Specifically, I was able to see just how great his hands are. He repeatedly catches the ball away from his body, utilizing his spectacular catch radius to his advantage. Parham does not have great straight-line speed or agility but his stride is so long that he covers ground deceptively well. In this clip, you can see how he gets away from the defender with relative ease after catching the post.

His route running was also more noticeable, although it certainly needs more refinement. I was encouraged by the nuance in this route because it showed a sign of Parham that I had not often seen. The defense is playing zone which he exploits by drawing the linebacker towards the boundary, cuts inside and stops his route in front of the safety. He makes the grab and spins away from contact.  This allows him to pick up an extra twenty yards after the catch. It was an unremarkable play but it showed me that he may be able to succeed from the slot and not just be typecast as a red zone receiver.

Parham does not have the bulk to be an in-line blocker in the NFL. I also believe he lacks the quickness and play strength to beat press coverage and start as an X receiver. So, he will need to find a role as a mismatch-inducing slot receiver. He will most definitely start his career as a situational player but given his unique size that may still be valuable to fantasy owners. I have a feeling that a team will be enticed by his physical potential and grabs him on Day Two, ahead of more complete tight ends. Draft Prediction: Round 2-3

Honorable Mentions

  • Brett Rypien, QB, Boise State: Rypien is currently my QB4.  He has decent measureables, tons of experience and a good-enough arm.  He’ll be a Day Two guy and might become fantasy relevant based on team fit.
  • Jalin Moore, RB, Appalachian State: According to Pro Football Focus, Jalin Moore is the best pass blocking running back the last two years running.  Moore missed much of 2018 with an injury so he’s going to go later than he would have six months ago.  I expect him to go during the inevitable RB run in the 4th round.  Even though he wasn’t a factor as a receiver, I expect him to earn an early role as a reliable pass protector.
  • Marcus Jones, RB, Gannon: The stats that Marcus Jones put up the last two seasons are incredible: 3,884 yards and 50 TDs.  Granted, that was against DII competition but his highlights are still impressive.  Jones received an invite to the NFLPA Collegiate Bowl (a low level postseason showcase game) but played out of position at FB.  He finished with zero carries and just one catch.  Sadly, that’s probably the death blow to his draft stock but I won’t give up until I see him in training camp.  I believe.
  • David Sills, WR, West Virginia: I have Sills higher in my rankings than many others.  The reason for that is that I think he will have immediate situational value in the NFL.  A rookie stat line of 25-200-6 would not surprise me and would mean that Sills could be a bye-week option in deeper leagues.
  • Emmanuel Butler, WR, Northern Arizona: Butler has good size and athleticism.  He excels in the air and in contested catch situations.  I also think he has the right mentality to find success as a late-rounder.
  • Kahale Warring, TE, San Diego State: Warring landed on my radar after he had a great combine.  He ran well (4.70, 76th percentile) and did as good or better in the jumps and shuttles.  He only has 19 career games and 51 career receptions so a small sample size is a concern.  After my limited exposure, he looks like a plus blocker so he’ll get drafted for that on Day Three and maybe his athleticism shines through.

 

Notes: In an effort to standardize the description of key positional traits, I frequently use the following adjectives: elite, good, above average, average, below average, poor.  Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height.  When writing a full report for a player, I typically pick two games of film to watch.  When time permits, I may add a third game. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2019 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, 247Sports College Football, College Fantasy Football: On Campus, Underdog Pawdcast, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com, the media home for FWAA members
  • Odds & Gambling Stats: oddsshark.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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Re-Examining Early 2018 RSO Auctions

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By Bernard Faller

Updated: March 23rd 2019

Many leagues will start-up after the upcoming NFL rookie draft.  Now seems a good time to look back at how RSO general managers spent their cap dollars in 2018 and what type of production they received for their investment.   The article will not focus on which players performed well or poorly but rather on where dollars spent in RSO auctions translated to fantasy points for various positions and how that changed throughout the given salary ranges for different position groups.  Examination of this information gives us some broad ideas of where our contract dollars can be utilized most effectively going forward.

The data below will show the average auction values plotted against per game fantasy production for the top-30 at each position with polynomial best-fit trendlines to give the reader an idea of expected fantasy scoring at different salary levels for each group.  Using per game instead of season long fantay scoring normalizes production differences due to injuries.  The salary data was taken from June and prior RSO auctions after the NFL draft and opening free agent period in 2018.  The salary data combines many scoring systems so 0.5 PPR scoring was utilized as a middle ground for comparison.  The group excludes Jerick McKinnon, Le’Veon Bell, Derrius Guice, and Hunter Henry who all missed the entire NFL season.

Running Backs and Wide Receivers

We start with running backs and wide receivers as they show some similarities in the data and for fantasy teams.  These positions typically represent the backbone of most fantasy squads given the majority of league settings when compared to quarterbacks and tight ends.  When looking at the data, note the more linear production tendencies from running backs and wide receivers throughout the salary range.  This simply means that additional auction dollars spent at those positions tended to translate to fairly uniform increases in fantasy production.  This certainty is a key consideration when determining how to split your auction dollars among position groups.

The charts also show a similar average salary range for running backs and wide receivers except for a couple of exceptions.  Saquon Barkley was a big outlier in the early running back data with an average auction value of about $58 million per season in a limited number of auctions which was more than $17 million above the next back, Todd Gurley.

 

Auction Values vs Fantasy Output for Running Backs and Wide Receivers

There are a couple of differences between these groups we need to address.  Running backs had higher expected production near the upper range of corresponding salaries while wide receivers led the way at the lower end.    Seven running backs outscored the top wide receiver in per game scoring in the 0.5 PPR format.  Wide receivers came with less risk overall, though.  The variance of outcomes for wide receivers was narrower overall and they missed far fewer games.  The top-30 priced running backs averaged only 11.4 games played while wide receivers averaged almost 14 games.

Quarterbacks

It is readily apparent how different the data looks for quarterbacks.  The salary range for quarterback is, unsurprising, lower than running backs and wide receivers.  Many league settings necessitate this fact because of limited starting requirements of quarterbacks.  The trendline also becomes far flatter at a much lower relative salary ranking for quarterbacks meaning RSO owners did not see much additional fantasy scoring for the additional money spent on the top priced quarterbacks.  The main problem centers on opportunity.  The top-10 highest paid running backs, for example, averaged 21.3 opportunities (rushing attempts plus targets) per game, the next ten averaged 15.2, and the final group averaged 13.  We have a decent idea of differing roles running backs will have going into the season which allows us to project variation in volume and thus differences in fantasy production.

The problem for quarterbacks is that we do not have the same type of variation in opportunity to guide us in assigning salaries.  Starting quarterbacks usually take all the snaps in a game whether they are one of the best or a middling example and thus get all of the opportunities.   The top-10 highest paid quarterbacks averaged 37.7 opportunities (passing plus rushing attempts) per game, the next ten averaged 37.5, and the final group averaged 32.  The middle tier of quarterbacks receives virtually identical workloads as the top players which resulted in similar fantasy production.  Few quarterbacks can consistently separate themselves in fantasy with the lack of difference in opportunity.

Auction Values vs Fantasy Output for Quarterbacks

It might help a little to break the information in a different form below.  The top-10 highest paid quarterbacks averaged 20.2 fantasy points per game at an $18 million salary while the next ten highest paid quarterbacks averaged 20.1 points per game at only $10 million salary.  There was virtually no difference in scoring between the top and middle tiers.  The top-10 did provide a safer option with far less variance and a safer floor than the middle tier, however.  Note there exists a significant difference between the cheapest quarterbacks and the rest.  Teams do try to limit the role of the worst quarterbacks which, when combined with poor performance, results in less opportunities and fantasy production.

Auction Values and Fantasy Output for Quarterbacks Tiers

Tight Ends

The data for tight ends might be even more out of line compared to the other positions with increasing marginal fantasy points near the top of our salaries.  Much of the reason is that we saw historic production from a couple of the top tight ends.  Three players topped 1,300 receiving yards and/or 100 receptions.  Travis Kelce and Zack Ertz obliterated the production of their previous top seasons.  One must go back to 2011, in the glory days of Rob Gronkowski and Jimmy Graham, to find a season even close in production at the top.  It is a good bet we will see a reduction in the output of the top tight ends in 2019.

Auction Values vs Fantasy Output for Tight Ends

There was big value to be found at bargain prices also.  George Kittle and Eric Ebron also put up huge career seasons averaging less than $5 million in RSO leagues.  Investing in the lowest priced tight ends is a gamble, but a cheap one, with a massive range of potential outcomes.  That large range of outcomes for the the cheaper tight ends is largely the result of unknown offensive roles which remain largely shrouded in mystery before the NFL season begins.

Primary Conclusions

  1. Place your big money in wide receivers and running backs. We more accurately project those groups in comparison to tight ends and quarterbacks because we generally have a better idea of differences in expected volume for players. Confidence in the application of our cap money for these positions translates throughout the range of salaries.  Most league settings also dictate spending bigger in these areas for pure value reasons.
  2. The middle class rules for quarterbacks. We see virtually no difference in opportunity from the top quarterbacks and middle options. The difference in skill is not enough to make up for the lack of difference in volume.  Playing the value game at quarterback is a viable option, even in superflex leagues, though it comes with more volatility.
  3. The tight end position remains an either/or proposition. The upper class of players can provide very big returns on your RSO dollars. The well-established middle class typically does not offer much upside over lower-tier options but does come with a lot less risk.

Bio:  Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

 

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The Watch List: 2019 NFL Draft Previews, TEs Fant & Hockenson

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By Bob Cowper

Updated: March 16th 2019

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout the Winter and Spring as The Watch List will preview the top prospects and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your valuable draft capital.

Apparently, the main ingredient needed to grow a tight end prospect is corn because Iowa has officially cemented their reputation as “TE U” with Noah Fant and TJ Hockenson atop this class. Last season, George Kittle showed fantasy owners just how productive a young athletic tight end can be. I don’t think it’s crazy to think that we could end up with all three recent Iowa TEs in the top ten of dynasty rankings as early as this Summer. It was a no-brainer to highlight Fant and Hockenson in this preview because they are the cream of the crop this season (pardon the corn puns). There’s a definite tier break between them and Alabama’s Irv Smith and an even further drop off to TE4. Both players will be selected in the top half of the first round but the order is still a topic of debate, so let’s get to it!

 

Noah Fant, TE, Iowa

  • Combine measurements:

  • Stats:
Receiving & Rushing Table
Rece Rece Rece Rece
Year School Class G Rec Yds Avg TD
*2016 Iowa FR 6 9 70 7.8 1
*2017 Iowa SO 12 30 494 16.5 11
*2018 Iowa JR 12 39 519 13.3 7
Career Iowa 78 1083 13.9 19
Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 3/9/2019.
  • Film watched for this profile: Penn State 2018, Iowa State 2018

Fant has been on the radar of devy owners for awhile now after he scored 11 TDs as a sophomore in 2017. The touchdown rate was unsustainable since it came on just 30 catches but people like myself were excited for 2018. Unfortunately, he started slow (just 41 yards in the first two games) and faded late (5-67-1 combined in the last three games). Through the middle of the season though, he showed just how productive he could be. His production in Games 3-9 would extrapolate to a 48-708-8 line. (Funny enough, that’s nearly the exact line that Hockenson had for 2018.)

In addition to promising production, Fant also displays tantalizing physical attributes. He’s been featured on various lists of “can’t miss” athletes and he proved just how athletic he is at the combine. He finished above the 90th percentile in four key categories: 40 yard dash, vertical jump, broad jump and 3-cone. Fant’s size measureables are mediocre, 6041 and 249lb, but teams won’t be drafting him for his size.

The first trait I was looking for while studying Fant was his blocking.  He doesn’t have the strength to hold blocks for long or to dominate defenders at the point of contact, but Fant is a high energy blocker.  What I mean by that is that he often flies at defenders ready to make contact, but sometimes does it in an inefficient or mindless way.  He can struggle to get to defenders at the second level or on the outside of a play.  I noticed that a few times early in the Iowa State game and then saw this play later where Fant does block the OLB.  However, I think his running back lacked trust in him to hold the block for long.  Instead of kicking it outside, the back kept it inside and ran right into traffic.

On this attempted block, Fant lets the defensive end get inside leverage right at the snap and the play is over before it even starts.  The end contacts the runner in the backfield and is stopped for no gain.

Even though he isn’t a strong blocker, Fant does feign blocking well on his routes.  He sells the block on this play before breaking inside to make the catch.  He protects the ball as he’s contacted to avoid a fumble or incompletion.

Much of Fant’s production that I saw came on crossing routes, so it was encouraging to see him adjust to late throws.  Unfortunately, he was pretty inconsistent with his hand use when catching the ball, resulting in a few catchable drops.  This observation is backed up by data from Pro Football Focus which showed that Fant had a 9.3% Drop Rate last season (which is higher than the others in my top five at the position).  On this play he did show great hands and an ability to adjust in mid-stride, reaching back against his momentum to secure a bad throw.

There was a similar play against Penn State where the pass was behind him, limiting his opportunity to rack up extra yardage.  Fant uses his speed though and is still able to take a good angle to the sideline and secure a first down.

That play came late in the Penn State contest on a drive that, for better and worse, Fant was the focus.  He kept the sticks moving by converting two of his three receptions into first downs.  However, confusion at the goal line essentially ended the game for the Hawkeyes (they would get the ball back with a minute left but fail to score).  Without the context of the full broadcast replays it’s hard to know who exactly to fault but Fant was obviously not ready for the snap and is at least partially responsible for the turnover.

I’ll end with one last play that shows how Fant is most likely to be utilized in the NFL.  This pass resulted in an incompletion but it showed that Fant can be a mismatch in the red zone.  He clearly has the size advantage but a poor throw grounds the play.  More accurate passes in situations like this one, and on all of those crossing routes, would have increased Fant’s production mightily.  Even with suspect quarterback play at times, Fant managed to turn six of his eight red zone receptions into points.

Fant and Hockenson are a conundrum for rankers. Is Fant’s athleticism enough to push him past Hockenson who may be a more complete prospect? In my opinion, for fantasy purposes, the answer is yes. I undervalued Evan Engram two years ago and want to avoid making the same mistake twice. Fant put up better agility numbers than Engram, and did it with a bigger frame (Fant is .08 slower but that’s negligible in this context). Pending his team fit, Fant is the TE1 for me.  Draft Prediction: Round 1

 

TJ Hockenson, TE, Iowa

  • Combine measurements:

  • Stats:
Receiving & Rushing Table
Rece Rece Rece Rece Rush Rush Rush Rush
Year School Class G Rec Yds Avg TD Att Yds Avg TD
*2017 Iowa FR 10 24 320 13.3 3 0 0 0
*2018 Iowa SO 13 49 760 15.5 6 1 4 4.0 1
Career Iowa 73 1080 14.8 9 1 4 4.0 1
Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 3/9/2019.
  • Film watched for this profile: Wisconsin 2018, Iowa State 2018

TJ Hockenson’s ascension from contributing redshirt sophomore to Top 10 NFL Draft prospect is impressive.  I think it’s safe to say that at this time last year, few analysts would have had Hockenson on their big board, let alone ahead of Fant.  If it weren’t for some of the stellar numbers that Fant put up, we would be talking more about how well Hockenson did in the combine agility drills.  That’s likely why I came across a thread on Reddit today where numerous people claimed that TJ Hockenson was the “safest” pick of this draft class.  An athletic tight end who can also block?  That’s NFL Draft gold.  That may be true but to get a better sense we need to look more closely at Hockenson’s stats and film.

We can easily see that Hockenson bested Fant in terms of “traditional” statistics this season, so I wanted to go deeper.  I checked a number of metrics from CFBStats.com and PFF’s annual draft guide to get a better feel for Hockenson’s game before I dove into the tape.  Per these more advanced stats, it’s clear that Hockenson can be a go-to receiver on third downs (9 of 11 third down receptions converted).  His QB trusts him because he has sure hands, dropping just one catchable ball all season (2.0%).  A stat that surprised me was that Hockenson had a high Yards Per Route Run (2.21) according to PFF.  That in and of itself isn’t surprising but what was surprising was that Hockenson beat Fant in this metric, contrary to the conventional wisdom about their skill sets.  One cautionary thing I noticed is that Hockenson may have been the beneficiary of junk time to pad his stats.  Half of his touchdowns came when the Hawkeyes were up by 8+ points.  Furthermore, his yards per reception average spiked highly in those multi-possession situations.  When his team was up by 8+, Hockenson averaged 22.0 yards per reception, meanwhile in one possession games he averaged 14.02 yards.

When I watched Hockenson’s film, I wanted to evaluate his blocking in comparison to Fant.  The current narrative is that Hockenson is a much better blocker than Fant but I wanted to see for myself.  Second, I wanted to see if his hands were as good as advertised by his Drop Rate stat.  TL:DR, yes he is and yes they are.

My favorite block of Hockenson’s from the two games I watched came on this short gain against Wisconsin.  The play, a counter, starts slow as the back fakes to the left.  Hockenson hesitates to make first contact with the end, instead letting him see the back’s motion and using his aggression against him.  Once the back takes the hand-off and reverses his direction, Hockenson easily shepherds the defender out of the play.  It showed some patience and awareness, which was something that I thought Fant lacked as a blocker.

The next blocking highlight I chose shows Hockenson’s flexibility to lineup in the backfield in an h-back role.  His block helps spring the running back for a first down.

This last blocking clip wasn’t very pretty from Hockenson but it proved effective enough to help ensure victory against Iowa State.  Iowa has the ball at the goal line and Hockenson is on the line and covered up.  The run is headed to the left so the blockers all take their first step in that direction.  Hockenson hits is defender and pushes him back before moving on to the second level and getting a piece of another.  Hockenson’s blocks were instrumental to the score.

As for Hockenson’s hands, it sure appears that the film backs up the stats.  I repeatedly wrote down “soft hands” when describing his catches.  Perhaps none of the receptions I saw showed that as well as this replay.  Not only does he use great hand placement, he ran a perfect route for a first down and secured the ball before going to ground.

In the Iowa State game, I noted that much of his routes were either simple go routes or out routes to the sideline.  Against Wisconsin, a few games later, his routes were more varied.  I’m guessing that’s because the coaching staff started to trust him more as the season progressed.  That’s a good sign for his ability to run a bigger route tree in the pros.  This play shows him go in motion before the snap, he initially angles his route towards midfield, straightens his stem and then breaks it out.  The throw was behind him but he still managed to make the catch with his hands instead of his body.

The Fant/Hockenson debate will certainly continue but here’s my take after studying both… If I was drafting for an NFL team, I would take Hockenson first.  If I was drafting for my fantasy team, I would take Fant first.  I don’t think that’s a knock on either guy, it’s just a comment on their best traits. Either way, both players will be worth your RSO draft capital.  Draft Prediction: Round 1

Notes: In an effort to standardize the description of key positional traits, I frequently use the following adjectives: elite, good, above average, average, below average, poor.  Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height.  When writing a full report for a player, I typically pick two games of film to watch.  When time permits, I may add a third game. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2019 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, 247Sports College Football, College Fantasy Football: On Campus, Underdog Pawdcast, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com, the media home for FWAA members
  • Odds & Gambling Stats: oddsshark.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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The Watch List: 2019 NFL Draft Previews, WRs Harmon & Metcalf

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By Bob Cowper

Updated: March 8th 2019

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout the Winter and Spring as The Watch List will preview the top prospects and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your valuable draft capital.

In this week’s entry in my NFL Draft Previews series, we’ll be taking a closer look at receivers Kelvin Harmon and DK Metcalf.  I decided to highlight Harmon because I am currently higher on him than the consensus.  I vacillated on who else to include until it recently became evident that I must include Metcalf too, because, well, dude is swole.  Harmon and Metcalf are actually a perfect duo for this piece because they are names that casual NFL Draft fans became more familiar with at the combine. Let’s get to it!

 

Kelvin Harmon, WR, North Carolina State

  • Combine measurements:

  • Stats:
Receiving & Rushing Table
Rece Rece Rece Rece
Year School Class G Rec Yds Avg TD
*2016 North Carolina State FR 10 27 462 17.1 5
*2017 North Carolina State SO 13 69 1017 14.7 4
*2018 North Carolina State JR 12 81 1186 14.6 7
Career North Carolina State 177 2665 15.1 16
Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 2/27/2019.
  • Film watched for this profile: Clemson 2017, Syracuse 2018

Full disclosure: Kelvin Harmon has been my WR1 or WR2 all season long.  I fell for him in the preseason and his great 2018 season only bolstered my confidence.  That’s saying a lot because this receiver class could be historic and on par with 2014 (my god: Odell Beckham, Mike Evans, Davante Adams, Allen Robinson, Jarvis Landry).  The other leading receivers in the class, such as Metcalf and N’Keal Harry, all exhibit elite traits which they showed off at the combine.  Harmon, on the other hand, is less physically dominant and performed poorly at the combine.  Harmon shows, however, two traits that I value highly: route running and technique in the air.  He runs smart and varied patterns, and while he isn’t physical at the line, he uses his hands well at the top of his route.  While in the air, he shows an ability to adjust to the ball, uses his body well and catches the ball with his hands.  In such a congested class, I look for ways a player can differentiate himself.  Harmon does that with a nuance that some lack.  It would be easy to cast Harmon aside after his combine performance but I’ve seen enough on tape to still rank him highly.

My favorite route of Harmon’s came in the second quarter of the Syracuse game while the Pack were down 14 and needed a big play.  Harmon is set up on the outside to the field with plenty of room to work towards the sideline.  He sells the corner on an out-breaking route and cuts inside, using his head to sell the feint.  He’s free and clear immediately and nearly outruns the pass.  After he slows and makes the nice over-the-shoulder catch, he accelerates just enough to avoid the pursuing defender.

This replay angle from the 2017 Clemson game shows another great route by Harmon.  He puts in a lot of work before the ball is in the air so it’s unfortunate that the quarterback misses him so badly.

Awareness was something that I kept coming back to when watching Harmon’s film.  On this next play, Harmon makes a great effort as a blocker to give his running back a lane to the end zone.  The run ultimately fails, but you can see that Harmon is patient enough to let the play develop before he abruptly turns his body to put it between the defender and where the back should be.  I’ll bet they worked on this play frequently at practice and if the timing were right, that sudden turn would have been the reason the back made it to the goal line.  It was subtle but showed me that while he may not be the strongest blocker, he is an intelligent one.

Speaking of putting his body between the defender and the ball, Harmon continually showed me what my high school soccer coach called “ball-side, goal-side.”  Basically, he wanted us to keep ourselves, as defenders, between the player with the ball and the goal.  Harmon does that on nearly every route as he uses his frame to shield the defender from the ball.  On the play below against Clemson from 2017, most receivers would have body-caught the ball but Harmon makes the grab with his hands.  He quickly peeks over his shoulder for the nearest defender before he lands and turtles to protect the ball from the converging tacklers.

In addition to showing well on tape, Harmon also shows well in the boxscore.  He had a solid sophomore season in 2017 and improved further in 2018.  In fact, he led the ACC in receiving yards over the last two seasons with 2,203 (the next best was Olamide Zaccheaus with 1,953) and helped lead the Wolfpack to the 8th best passing offense in the FBS.  Harmon can be a compiler, as we saw in his game against Syracuse this season (he has eight career games with 8+ receptions), which is great for fantasy owners.

I’m disappointed that Harmon did not show better at the combine.  If he had, I would have locked him into my WR1 spot.  For now, I’ll pencil him at WR2, between Harry and Metcalf.  Hopefully he finds a favorable home in the NFL and I can keep him atop my rankings.  Draft Prediction: Round 2

 

DK Metcalf, WR, Ole Miss

  • Combine measurements:

  • Stats:
Receiving & Rushing Table
Rece Rece Rece Rece
Year School Class G Rec Yds Avg TD
2016 Ole Miss FR 2 2 13 6.5 2
2017 Ole Miss FR 12 39 646 16.6 7
2018 Ole Miss SO 7 26 569 21.9 5
Career Ole Miss 67 1228 18.3 14
Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 2/27/2019.
  • Film watched for this profile: Kentucky 2017, Louisiana-Monroe 2018
Even the most casual of fans has seen Metcalf’s name pop-up on social media lately.  Metcalf, along with his well-defined six-pack, is like a modern day Atlas, holding up the #DraftTwitter world.  Fortunately for Metcalf, and his agent, the buzz before, and especially during, the combine has elevated his NFL Draft stock significantly.  Heading into the 2018 season, Metcalf could usually be found in the WR5 range, now he’s leading many rankings.  “Hold on Bob,” you say, that’s not such a big leap from WR5 to WR1.  You’re right, but you’re also forgetting that Metcalf suffered a broken neck in October.  I don’t know how similar the injury is, but I dinged Clemson WR Mike Williams’ draft stock for his neck injury, and that was after he returned from surgery with a full 98-1361-11 season.  Instead of rehabbing at school and showing his resiliency as a Rebel, Metcalf decided to go pro.  If I were an NFL decision maker, that would worry me.  Plain and simple.

Due to Metcalf’s injury history, he also missed most of his freshman year due to a broken foot, he doesn’t have much on the stat sheet.  His 67 career receptions are less than many receivers in the class have in their second-best season (like Harmon).  His rate stats are encouraging, though they aren’t pulling from a large sample size.  In 2018, nine of Metcalf’s 26 receptions went for 20+ yards, including four 40+ yard touchdowns.  That’s an impressive big play rate for somebody of his size.

Perhaps I shouldn’t be surprised by his penchant for big plays given his combine measurables.  Metcalf undoubtedly stole the show in Indy when he put up great numbers in everything but the 3-Cone and Shuttle.  One of the knocks I often hear about Metcalf is that he’s not a great route runner and that may presaged by those poor 3-Cone and Shuttle scores.  He may have sacrificed some agility and change of direction ability to get as big and straight-line fast as he is.

When I watched his tape I was not that concerned about that impacting his game at the next level. The first thing that stood out in the Kentucky game was how often Metcalf had a decent release but was not targeted.  He repeatedly has quick feet at the line and uses his hands well to knock the corner off him.  In this play, which did not result in a target, you can see Metcalf’s quick feet off the snap which helps him get outside of the defender.  You can’t clearly see it in the clip, but he also smacks the defender’s hand off him.

Metcalf showed how well he uses his hands and strength to get free on this play as well:

On this next play, Metcalf strings all of the above into one great play.  If you are looking for a reason to draft Metcalf at 1.01 in your league, this is the only play you’ll need to see.  He stems outside and chops the defender’s hands to get himself free.  He then cuts inside and turns on his straight-line afterburners.  By the time the ball arrives, he’s comfortably ahead of the corner as he makes an over the shoulder catch.  The defender makes a last ditch dive but Metcalf keeps his feet and scores.  Watching the wide-angle replay lets you get a birds-eye view of DK checking off all the boxes.

The ending of that play was similar to a play I noted against Louisiana-Monroe.  In this one, Metcalf capitalizes on a bad read by the corner, stays in bounds, and uses a combination of speed/balance/strength to get to the end zone despite two attempts at taking his feet.

Despite the run-after-catch that Metcalf displays on these two plays, I did not notice that as a larger piece of his game.  Unfortunately, he did not run many different routes, primarily go routes and comebacks, so there wasn’t ample opportunity for him to get gone unless it was along the sideline.  Similarly, I would have loved to see a more varied deployment to show that he could fill multiple roles; he was almost exclusively used on the left side, at the line of scrimmage.  The film I watched did not show much of Metcalf blocking but there was one particularly bad example.  Somebody of his stature should do better than this.  It wasn’t just poor technique, it was poor effort.

I don’t want to end on a negative note so I’ll leave you with this last great play.  This one showed Metcalf’s ability to win in the red zone with his size and body control.  He also uses strong hands to secure the ball and survive the ground.

Paired with the earlier score against Kentucky, you can see why fantasy GMs are eager to draft Metcalf.  It’s clear that he has tremendous physical potential, but potential often gets NFL coaches fired.  I tend to be risk-averse in my evaluations, so if it were up to me as an NFL GM, the earliest I would pull the trigger on DK would be in the 25-35 range.  Honestly though, there’s no way he makes it that far unless he fails a physical.  I’ve already resigned myself to the fact that I will likely own zero shares of Metcalf and I’ll have to be okay with that.  Draft Prediction: Round 1

 

Notes: In an effort to standardize the description of key positional traits, I frequently use the following adjectives: elite, good, above average, average, below average, poor.  Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height.  When writing a full report for a player, I typically pick two games of film to watch.  When time permits, I may add a third game. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2019 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, 247Sports College Football, College Fantasy Football: On Campus, Underdog Pawdcast, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com, the media home for FWAA members
  • Odds & Gambling Stats: oddsshark.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

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