Monthly Archives: July 2019

Early 2019 RSO Contracts: RBs

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By Bernard Faller

Updated: July 31st 2019

My annual look at early RSO auction values moves to running backs.  The series was designed to give the reader help in planning for upcoming auctions by looking at actual RSO auctions already finished.  The data comes from a variety of different types of leagues with varying scoring rules and starting requirements which can drastically alter player values so be cautious in expecting values to match your particular league.  The number of auctions for any particular player may also be limited this early in the RSO season.  The information does provide a useful starting point for examining how RSO owners value players at a certain position relative to one another and the length of contract they are willing to invest.

Average RSO Running Back Contracts

The Next Four

Elliot, Barkley, McCaffrey, and Kamara form the top tier of virtually every ranking for running backs in 2019.  Elliott is always a danger for off the field incidents and Kamara has longer term question marks once (if?) Brees retires but the group poses no significant short-term question marks.  The question marks come quickly after.  The next four rushers present three-down backs with unknowns.  Bell took a sabbatical last season from the NFL forfeiting about $14.5 million in the process.  He goes from one of the most prolific offenses and top offensive lines in Pittsburg to a New York team with a second year quarterback, one of the worst offensive lines in the game, and Adam Gase as the head coach.  The all-around talent for Mixon and surrounding skill players is not the issue in Cincinnati.  His dreadful offensive line from last season is after already losing its top-two projected starters this season.  Gordon’s knee injury history is similar to Todd Gurley’s and he is threatening a holdout after not securing a long-term contract so far.  Expect Gordon’s RSO contracts to start sinking quickly.  Johnson only registered as PFF’s 51st running back in 2018 thanks, in part, to dismal surrounding talent and a new coaching staff not up for the challenge.  His usage and effectiveness are among the highest variance for running backs due to what is, in effect, an experimental college offense transitioning to the NFL.

Injury Concerns Result in Bargain Prices (Sometimes)

Fantasy gamers discussed Todd Gurley’s knee issues ad nauseam this offseason.  RSO GMs listened.  The RB1 in points per game each of the last two seasons is going off the board as the 13th highest paid running back.  Nagging lower-body injuries combined with an awful situation in Jacksonville also lowered the price of Leonard Fournette considerably from last year.   A substantial upgrade at quarterback, much healthier offensive line, and new offensive coordinator give Fournette significant upside at his cost with 300-plus touch upside.   Many considered Guice a borderline RB1 going into last season before tearing his ACL.  A lot has changed in a year.  Future hall of famer Adrian Peterson came back from the dead for an impressive late career campaign and signed an extension.  Washington also drafted former Heisman runner-up Bryce Love, falling to the fourth round after an injury filled 2018 and eventual tearing his ACL late in the year.

Surprisingly, the injury issues associated with Cook and Johnson apparently are not affecting their costs as both hit the boards as top-10 running backs so far in RSO leagues.  Both have massive injury histories including, most notably, multiple shoulder surgeries plus knee, ankle, and hamstring injuries.  Expect Johnson’s price climbing to even higher levels with news of pass-catching specialist Theo Riddick’s release from Detroit.

Young Featured Backs

Chubb, Jones, Mack, and Michel present cases with many of the same strengths and limitations.  All young backs play on projected upper level offenses with quality quarterbacks.  Their respective teams utilized each as primary running down backs with limited passing game usage.  Jones offers a bit more upside in this group because Green Bay does not possess a true receiving down back, albeit under Aaron Rodgers at quarterback who has never utilized running backs extensively in the passing game.  Duke Johnson (Cleveland), Nyheim Hines (Indianapolis), and James White (New England) give each team a strong, complementary passing down option.  Michel’s knee issues and New England drafting 3rd round running back Damien Harris depressed his price somewhat.

The Battle for Touches

While we have a good feel for the depth chart of most teams, not all backfields share as clear of picture.  The explosive and undrafted Phillip Lindsay dominated touches last year for Denver but faded to end the year failing to hit 50 rushing yards over the last three games.  Look for Royce Freeman gaining more looks to keep Lindsay fresh in 2019.  Barber won the starting spot battle in Tampa Bay last year but may have lost the war after displaying backup level skills.  It might be the last chance for Ronald Jones after an ugly rookie season in which the 20 year old was not prepared for the NFL and struggled with hamstring injuries for much of the year.  Philadelphia remains an enticing but disappointing fantasy situation for running backs as committees have dominated recently.  Will Miles Sanders, Jordan Howard, or any of the other backs receive enough work to break the mold?  San Francisco possesses three talented backs in Coleman, McKinnon, and Breida on what should be a good offense.  We do not know if any of them receives enough consistent work to hold strong fantasy value.  The Bills running back room is a mess you may feel free to avoid on a team not likely to be among the higher scorers in the NFL.

Outside the Top-50

The afore-mentioned Hines racked up 63 receptions and is the receiving downs back for an Andrew Luck-led offense.    Kalen Ballage is a size-speed specimen with impressive receiving ability who will form a committee with Drake in Miami.  C.J. Anderson should carve out a significant role in Detroit where former New England coach Matt Patricia wants to run the ball as much as possible.  Jalen Richard ranked 7th in receptions among running backs in 2018 and is extremely cheap after Oakland spent a 1st round pick on Josh Jacobs.

Bio:  Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

 

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The Watch List: 2019 Big 12 Season Preview

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By Bob Cowper

Updated: July 28th 2019

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout the Spring and Summer as The Watch List will preview the top prospects and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your valuable draft capital.

Storylines to Watch

Heisman Contender: Jalen Hurts, QB, Oklahoma.  An Oklahoma quarterback has won the last two Heisman trophies so this was a pretty easy prediction.  Hurts is an efficient quarterback who makes few mistakes.  I’m sure head coach Lincoln Riley will have Hurts playing in a more aggressive fashion this season which will help increase his counting stats.  In order to get serious Heisman consideration, I think Hurts will need to be on pace for 3,500 total yards and 40 TDs and leading his team to the playoff.

Underclassman to Watch: Pooka Williams, RB, Kansas.  Pooka starred as a freshman for the Jayhawks, earning All-Big 12 and Big 12 Freshman of the Year honors. In eleven games, he had over 1,400 yards from scrimmage (161 carries, 33 receptions) and 9 TDs; plus, he handled kick return duties.  His ability to combine hesitation with elite acceleration and long-speed is impressive.  I was also surprised to see how often he broke tackles or bowled over would-be tacklers despite his 5110/170 size.  One thing to keep in mind is that Williams was suspended this offseason during a domestic violence investigation; afterwards, he was subsequently suspended for the season opener.  If Williams can show personal growth off the field and add some girth on it, we’ll be talking about him near the top of the 2021 class.

Newcomer of the Year: Austin Kendall, QB, West Virginia.  There will be a changing of the guard in Morgantown this year.  Out goes QB Will Grier who led the Mountaineers attack the last two years; also leaving is head coach Dana Holgorsen who left for Houston.  Austin Kendall, a grad transfer, leaves Oklahoma to join new West Virginia head coach Neal Brown.  Brown recruited Kendall back when he was an assistant at Kentucky so presumably they already have a relationship.  Brown says the quarterback competition is open but all three preview magazines I consulted predict he’ll win the job.  Kendall ended up behind Baker Mayfield and Kyler Murray at OU and escapes another season on the bench in Norman.  In very limited action in 2016 and 2018, Kendall completed 71.8% of his passes and tossed three touchdowns to zero interceptions.  He has two years of eligibility remaining so he’ll have two bites at the apple.

Coaching Carousel: Les “The Mad Hatter” Miles is back in our college football lives as he takes over at Kansas.  Les has a reputation as being a zealous play caller who is unafraid to take chances.  I think his personality can rub some people the wrong way, recently evidenced by some of the push back he’s receiving for the suspension of Pooka Williams.  He said he “stands by” the suspension even though it wasn’t his decision.  I won’t comment on the incident itself, but I have a feeling we’re going to end up with some troublesome sound bite from Miles regarding the situation before long.  Miles has a career coaching record of 142-55 and finished 9-3 in his final full season at LSU.  Kansas has only won nine games total in the last five seasons.  It’s a good hire for the Jayhawks to jump start the program, but I don’t think Miles is the type who can be the long term answer — time will tell.

Players to Watch

CeeDee Lamb, WR, Oklahoma

CeeDee Lamb has been a devy favorite for over two years now since he joined the Sooners as a touted 4-star recruit, eschewing offers of home-state titans Texas and Texas A&M.  I recall seeing Lamb play in his rookie season and thinking he looked a little light but he’s filled out his frame and is now listed at 6020/189.  As a freshman, he recorded 46 receptions for 807 yards and 7 TDs.  He improved in 2018 to 65-1,158-11, despite sharing the spotlight with Marquise “Hollywood” Brown.  In 2019, Lamb should be the unquestioned top target for new quarterback Jalen Hurts.

Before we delve into Lamb’s film, I wanted to share one intangible that came through as I watched.  Lamb is an alpha male.  He has an attitude and a swagger that I would love from my WR1 if I was a teammate or a fan.  I don’t know if it should factor into his evaluation but I felt it was worth mentioning.  This huge block in last year’s Red River Shootout is a example of what I mean.  It’s hard to see in the replay but he looks down at the flattened defender as if to add further insult to injury.

In the two games I watched, Texas and Alabama, Lamb continually made difficult plays along the sideline look routine.  He has superb body control with the instincts to toe-tap just as he’s going out of bounds.  The first play is a catch against Alabama where Lamb traps a back shoulder throw against his chest as he gets his feet in bounds (if I were to nitpick, I would say that Lamb does often body-catch the ball which can be, but hasn’t yet, been a concern).  The second play against Texas Tech looks similar but he makes the catch using his hands this time.

Lamb is a long strider who covers ground quickly when he wants to.  He’s also good at selling route fakes by manipulating his speed or using subtle body feints.  On this deep post he uses his speed and a head fake to gain enough space to make the play.  As usual, he’s able to get his feet in bounds, this time in the back of the end zone.

The two games I watched were lacking in the “oh my gosh did he just do that” department.  (That’s probably a testament to how natural he looks making difficult plays.)  I knew Lamb had a few incredible plays on his resume so I sought out some highlight reels so I could share a few.  These next two plays came against UCLA early in the season.  In the first play, Lamb one-hands the ball while streaking across the field.  In the second play, Lamb nearly makes the play of the decade by plucking the ball with one hand at full extension, sadly his feet come down on the line.

I currently have Lamb ranked as my WR2 behind Jerry Jeudy and ahead of Leviska Shenault.  He is a well-balanced wide receiver prospect who lines up all over the formation and is bound to make a huge impact this season.  Since Lamb has already been productive and shown a penchant for the unbelievable, I think he has a higher floor and a higher ceiling than most of the 2020 class.

 

Tylan Wallace, WR, Oklahoma State

When I first started my 2020 NFL Draft preparation back in May, I admittedly did not know much about Tylan Wallace.  I had heard of his name and must have seen him during the Bedlam matchup against Oklahoma but I didn’t remember much.  The receivers below in the Honorable Mentions section may have better name recognition right now than Wallace but I thought it was important to spotlight him here and give him his due.

As a freshman Wallace tallied just seven receptions, but he exploded as a sophomore.  His 2018 line finished at 86-1,491-12, which was enough yardage to finish second in the FBS.  Despite his dominance, Wallace didn’t earn much All-American recognition, perhaps confirming my thought that people are sleeping on him.

Wallace may not have the height of an elite outside receiver (6000) but he certainly has the catch radius.  He has strong hands that allow him to snag the ball away from his body at a full extension.  Combined with his strength, his leaping ability make him a frequent winner in contested situations.  In this first clip, you’ll see him take an inside stem, then extend as he comes across the middle.  He grabs the football in front of the defender before he can make a play on it.

In this clip, you’ll see Wallace make another first down catch at full extension.  The play is unlikely to end up on the evening highlight reels but it was an important play late in a close game and it readily shows how great his hands are.

Wallace also has excellent speed and acceleration.  I originally pegged him at 4.50 speed but he may be even quicker than that in confined space.  He quickly gets out of his breaks and is able to return to top speed immediately.  On this play against Kansas State, Wallace is running an out-and-up route but he slips while making his break.  He quickly gathers himself and bursts upfield, edging out the corner and the incoming safety.  Ultimately, Wallace wins the jump ball in double coverage for a big gain.

Wallace isn’t all hands and speed though, I also noted numerous times where he succeeded as a blocker.  I actually labeled him as a “feisty” blocker because it looks like he relishes the role.  Here’s just one example of the “feisty” blocks I saw from Wallace in my study.

It will be difficult for Wallace to improve on last year’s output but he should come close.  Hopefully he garners the national recognition he deserves because he’s a Top 10 receiver in the class.

Honorable Mentions

Kennedy Brooks, RB, Oklahoma: Brooks was the first of the two Oklahoma running backs I studied this Summer, which was before the recent news about a Title IX investigation. He’s been reinstated to the team but we don’t currently know the details. On the field, I noted that Brooks is an upright and downhill runner. He’s patient, follows his blocks and gets every yard that is available. I didn’t see too many examples in my film study, but I get the impression that he’s average or better in both pass protection and receiving. Brooks is just a redshirt sophomore so it’s unlikely he’ll do enough in a shared role to justify coming out early but he’s still somebody to monitor.

Trey Sermon, RB, Oklahoma: I was pleasantly surprised by Sermon’s film when I studied him earlier this offseason. Sermon runs with a slashing style and is ideal in a zone read offense. Because of his running style I assumed he was smaller than he is, but he’s listed at 6000/224.  In fact, he invites contact and has a great stiff arm. Sermon shows a high football IQ, specifically when it comes to pass protection and blocking for his rushing QB. Forced to decide between he and Brooks, I would take Sermon. Luckily, head coach Lincoln Riley doesn’t have to choose and will run both of them alongside QB Jalen Hurts. I expect another 1,000+ scrimmage yard season with double digit touchdowns, which might be enough to have Sermon declare in January.

Collin Johnson, WR, Texas: I watched Johnson’s film against TCU and was impressed by a number of his traits. He has a long and lean body type (6060/220) which he uses to reach balls others couldn’t. He hand-fights the corner well and ran a variety of routes in the game I saw. I also noted that he has excellent situational awareness: he knows where the marker is, when to fight for extra yardage and when to protect the ball. Johnson was on my 2019 NFL Draft radar before deciding to return for his senior season; part of his decision to return to the Longhorns was that he did not receive a high grade from the NFL. A 1,000 yard season in 2019 will improve his chances to be a Day Two prospect.

Jalen Reagor, WR, TCU: Reagor is an electrifying track star playing wide receiver. He has elite athletic ability which allows him to transcend his presumed role as a receiver with a 5110/195 frame. Reagor easily outleaps DBs and is able to high point the ball. He’s nearly uncoverable 1-on-1 and safeties don’t have the speed to turn and chase when playing Cover 2. I’m hesitant to put Reagor in my top five wide receivers until I’m able to study some game film instead of highlights — as of my writing there were no full clips available yet. Reagor’s upside is immense so keep an eye on him.

Grant Calcaterra, TE, Oklahoma: Calcaterra is the prototype of the new “big-slot” tight end.  He’s listed at 6040/221 and has 4.60 speed.  Per ESPN’s recruiting service, Calcaterra was the fastest TE in his recruiting class, running a 4.64 in 2017.  I haven’t watched him close enough to gauge his blocking ability but from what I’ve seen casually watching Sooners games the last two years he’s really just a receiver.  To check that assumption, I fast forwarded through his tape from Texas last season and saw just a single play where he lined up on the line of scrimmage.  At the end of that game, he made an incredible touchdown catch to seal the victory: contested, over the shoulder and one-handed.  Catches like that are why we need to pay attention to Calcaterra this season.

 

Notes: Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height.  When studying a player I rely on game film “cuts” which are most frequently found on Youtube. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels.  Keep in mind these highlight reels are the best plays of that player. When I have the option, I will choose to watch a game versus the better defense. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching my articles I use a number of valuable resources. I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com, washingtonpost.com
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2020 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com, nfl.com
  • NFL rosters, depth charts and contract info: ourlads.com, spotrac.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft, Cover 3 College Football
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com
  • Odds & Gambling Stats: vegasinsider.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a certified park and recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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The Watch List: 2019 AAC Season Preview

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By Bob Cowper

Updated: July 28th 2019

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout the Spring and Summer as The Watch List will preview the top prospects and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your valuable draft capital.

Storylines to Watch

Heisman Contender: D’Eriq King, QB, Houston.  King is likely to be the most debated prospect in the 2020 class.  He has some of the upside and athleticism that Kyler Murray possessed last season when he won the Heisman.  The only downside is that he also shares Murray’s body type.  If King stays healthy — he missed the last two games of 2018 — he could hit 4,000 total yards and 50 TDs.  He’s on the short list for top Heisman candidates and a good bet if you take “the field” instead of Tua Tagovailoa or Trevor Lawrence.

Underclassman to Watch: Desmond Ridder, QB, Cincinnati.  Ridder took over midway through the season opener and retained the job throughout.  He is a dual-threat quarterback with 6040/212 size.  He completed 62.4% of his passes, threw 20 TDs to just 5 INTs, and rushed for 583-5.  In the highlight package I watched, Ridder’s composure in the pocket and his ball placement impressed me.  A comp came to mind but I’ll withhold it for now until I see full game tape.  The Bearcats are poised to win the AAC West this season with a weakened UCF and Ridder will be a huge factor.

Newcomer of the Year: Brandon Wimbush, QB, UCF.  Wimbush transfers in from Notre Dame where he flashed his playmaking ability but was plagued by inconsistency.  In McKenzie Milton’s absence, Wimbush was expected to battle with Darriel Mack for the starting role, however Mack went down with a non-football injury.  Wimbush is dynamic as a ball carrier but struggles to complete 50% of his passes.  Head coach Josh Heupel is known as a quarterback-friendly coach so I expect he can structure the offense to highlight Wimbush’s strengths and maintain the Knights’ winning way.

Coaching Carousel: Dana Holgorsen is the biggest name among new coaches in the American this season.  He joins Houston from West Virginia, a rare move down in conference prestige for a big-name coach.  Holgorsen, at $4.0mil per year, becomes the highest paid Group of Five coach (Memphis coach Josh Norvell is second at $2.6mil).  Holgorsen spent ten years in Texas as an assistant at Texas Tech and at Houston so he should know the talent-rich state well.  I have no doubt that he will have successful and high-scoring teams at Houston but I don’t understand why you would willingly give up a shot at playing in the College Football Playoff.

Players to Watch

D’Eriq King, QB, Houston

As I mentioned above, King is likely to be the most debated prospect in this year’s class.  He’s undeniably talented but is he an NFL quarterback?  If not, can he make a move back to receiver and find a role?  King is the next undersized dual-threat quarterback who will wow fans on his way to Heisman votes.  Last year we had Kyler Murray, who ended up going first overall to the Cardinals.  I went into King’s study expecting to see Murray and that was a mistake on my part because he’s not (yet?) on that level.  Before we get into my observations, let’s check in on King’s stats and measurables.

For those who are new to King as a player, let’s start with a quick primer.  He was recruited as a 3-star athlete and chose Houston over offers from Power 5 schools like Baylor and TCU.  Switched to receiver in 2016 so he could get on the field and became the starter at quarterback midway through 2017.  As a receiver, King was a slot/screen type, averaging less than ten yards per catch.  He also earned rushing touches as well.  In 2016, he had the rare distinction of scoring in four different ways: passing, rushing, receiving and kick returning.  At just 5110/190, King is undersized to be a starting quarterback but his athleticism makes up for whatever he may lack in height.

When I dug into his game film against Texas Tech from 2018, I noted that King regularly reads the field and throws to his second or third option on numerous plays.  There are definitely some quick-hitting single-read throws but when he’s given time and freedom to scan the field, he does.  You’ll actually see this trait on all three clips below.

On this first clip, you’ll see that King throws to his second read.  He bombs it more than fifty yards and places it well, just shading the receiver to the sideline away from help coverage.  The receiver still has a lot to do before he scores — over the shoulder catch, avoid a tackle, stay in bounds — but King makes it possible by delivering a beautiful ball.

I was surprised that I didn’t see King on more designed runs.  I saw him play sporadically last season, mostly in highlights, and assumed he was more of a primary rushing option.  Instead, much of his ground game comes when he evades the pass rush and gets out of the pocket.  I’m actually glad to see that, because functional mobility from the pocket as a scrambler is more important to an NFL team than a speedy option quarterback; forcing a defense to spy on the quarterback helps open up the field for other players.  On this play, King senses the play breaking down and sprints out of the pocket, accelerating just enough to beat the defense to the first down marker.

King is able to improvise with the ball in his hands, a skill he shows on this last clip.  The initial read on this 1st and Goal play is a quick screen.  King decides not to throw the ball and instead looks to his second option, a slant from the blocking receiver, which is well covered.  King then tucks it, rolls out of the pocket to his left and is the first to the pylon.  It’s an illustrative combination of the two previous clips and shows how dangerous King can be.

There are some negatives I noted as well when watching King.  As I stated above, he has the arm strength to deliver a deep ball 50+ yards but I think he needs to be more selective about when he employs that zip.  He too frequently overpowers short and intermediate passes which sacrifices touch and accuracy.  He’s a multi-faceted player but his versatility means that he hasn’t spent that much time as a starting quarterback at a high level.

He may need more than just his senior season to gain the experience and consistency to become a viable professional quarterback, however King flashes enough upside that some team is likely to stash him on their roster and see if he continues to develop.

 

Michael Warren II, RB, Cincinnati

When I previewed the AAC in 2018, I chose Cincinnati as a team on the rise.  One of my observations was that the Bearcats had a number of options at quarterback and running back and that “if [head coach Luke] Fickell [could] juggle his myriad backfield options, Cinci could surprise in the East and get to eight wins.”  Little did I know that eight wins would turn into eleven and that the two to emerge would be the aforementioned Desmond Ridder and RB Michael Warren II.  Warren fell into the job due to an injury and didn’t look back, going for 35-142-3 in the season-opening win against UCLA.  Warren totaled 1,329 yards and 19 TDs, an impressive output for somebody elevated to the starting spot.

Warren is listed at 5110/218 and runs with a throwback, between the tackles style.  He’s fantastic in short yardage situations when he can use his power to pick up tough yards.  Late in the UCLA game, Cinci found itself with a tenuous two point lead in the red zone.  While trying to seal the victory, they came upon a 4th and 2.  Dare I say everybody in the stadium knew what was coming: a Michael Warren run.  The Bruins put five on the line of scrimmage and come with the rush.  Warren is able to churn and fight for the all-important first down.  By no means is it a flashy play but it illustrates what his NFL role could be.

Warren also excels in the passing game.  He finished 2018 with 25 receptions for 232 yards and a score.  I don’t think those stats do justice to his pass catching ability though.  When I was watching the UCLA game there were numerous times when he was lined up as a slot or boundary receiver, so the coaching staff trusts him in that role.  Speaking of trust, he was put in a lot of pass protection situations early in the UCLA game, his first as the starter.  He did well and clearly knows his assignments, even if he lacks pop in his blocks.  Warren has good hands, catching the ball away from his body, and isn’t fearful of contact over the middle.  This first down catch shows just how versatile he can be in the passing game.  He’s lined up in the slot and runs a quick slant on a 3rd and 6.  He extends and makes the grab; he knows the safety is closing so he quickly gets both hands on the ball to secure it.  So far in my offseason study, I can’t recall seeing another back make a similar play as a receiver.

I was a bit disappointed that the only game film currently available was the UCLA game.  I was hoping to see Warren later in the season when he was full entrenched and had a number of starts under his belt.  So, I turned on some highlight reels I found on Youtube.  I’m glad I did.  One of my original notes on Warren was that he lacked top-end speed and was probably a 4.55-4.60 runner.  What I saw on highlights contradicted that.  You can see here against Tulane that he clearly has another gear after he breaks through the second level.  I updated my notes now to say that Warren accelerates well but struggles to maintain his top-end speed, maybe topping out at about 4.50.

Cincinnati figures to be in the running for the AAC championship in 2019 so we’re likely to see a lot of Warren this season.  I’m grateful because I think there’s more to his game than I was able to see in his lone game tape.  At worst, it appears that Warren could be a solid short yardage specialist with receiving upside at the next level.

Honorable Mentions

Damonte Coxie, WR, Memphis: Coxie emerged in 2018 as the Tigers’ leading receiver, ending with more than double the receptions of the next best receiver (72 vs 33).  He’s listed at 6030/200 and plays with above average play strength and excellent hand strength.  His play strength allows him to body-battle with defenders for 50/50 balls and also makes him a difficult tackle after the catch.  His hand strength helps him rip the ball away from defenders and is the reason why he’s often able to snare balls well away from his frame.  Coxie is a redshirt junior and will earn draft buzz if he repeats his 1,172 yard output from last season.

Gabriel Davis, WR, UCF: I watched a highlight reel and a full game film of Davis and I’m honestly not sure which I should put more stock in.  The highlight reel showed a downfield threat who wins contested balls while the full film showed a possession receiver with the ability to break a big play.  Either would be valuable, it’s just a matter of what does he do well consistently.  He led UCF in receiving with a 53-815-7 line last year but I expect that to decline with Brandon Wimbush at the helm.  Whether Davis can regularly show us his playmaking ability, and not his counting stats, will ultimately determine if he comes out as a junior.

James Proche, WR, SMU: Proche led the AAC and finished fifth in the FBS with 93 receptions in 2018.  He averaged 12.9 yards per catch, finishing with 1,199 yards (and 12 TDs).  Proche (pronounced Pro-shay) also returned kicks and punts for the Mustangs which will increase his chances of making an NFL roster.  He’s listed at 5110/190, has about 4.50 speed and made some spectacular catches last season.  I love that Proche shows up in big games.  In two career games against conference-leading UCF, Proche totaled 19-273-3.  In five games against Power 5 opponents, he amassed 32 receptions for 453 yards and 3 TDs, including an 11-166-2 coming-out party against Michigan.  I’m expecting big numbers from Proche again in 2019.

Isaiah Wright, WR, Temple: Wright was the AAC Special Teams Player of the Year in 2018 but he offers much more than that to the team. He’s deployed in myriad ways: wildcat, jet sweep, option, traditional receiver. Wright has fantastic change of direction skills and has straight line speed to outrun most defenders. At 6020/220 he’s built well and is bigger that most players with his skill set. In 2018 he scored seven total touchdowns: three receiving, one rushing, one kick return and two punt returns. He may be a gadget player in the NFL but he could still have fantasy value.

Mitchell Wilcox, TE, USF: Mitchell Wilcox is an easy prospect to fall in love with. He has better than average size at 6050/245 and ample speed for the position. He’s versatile because he’s also a competent blocker, which gives him a leg up on big-slot tight end prospects. Most impressively, Wilcox is a natural when it comes to catching the ball. He adjusts well to the ball in midair and loves to make highlight reel diving catches. After watching his highlights, I also feel that he has the potential to be an emotional leader for his team. Wilcox is a lock to be a Top 10 tight end prospect in the class and may end up even higher in my rankings.

 

Notes: Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height.  When studying a player I rely on game film “cuts” which are most frequently found on Youtube. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels.  Keep in mind these highlight reels are the best plays of that player. When I have the option, I will choose to watch a game versus the better defense. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching my articles I use a number of valuable resources. I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com, washingtonpost.com
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2020 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com, nfl.com
  • NFL rosters, depth charts and contract info: ourlads.com, spotrac.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft, Cover 3 College Football
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com
  • Odds & Gambling Stats: vegasinsider.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a certified park and recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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Early 2019 RSO Contracts: QBs

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By Bernard Faller

Updated: July 23rd 2019

My annual look at early RSO auction values begins at the quarterback position in 2019.  The series was designed to give the reader help in planning for upcoming auctions by looking at actual RSO auctions already finished.  The data comes from a variety of different types of leagues with varying scoring rules and starting requirements which can drastically alter player values so be cautious in expecting values to match your particular league.  The number of auctions for any particular player may also be limited this early in the RSO season.  The information does provide a useful starting point for examining how RSO owners value players at a certain position relative to one another and the length of contract they are willing to invest.

 

Average RSO Quarterback Contracts

Is Russell Wilson elite in the fantasy realm?

The argument for Wilson as an elite quarterback needs little discussion.  He consistently ranks among the most efficient quarterbacks in the league, limits turnovers, and adds a rushing element to his game which keeps opposing defenses off balance.  RSO GMs made Wilson the 5th highest paid quarterback to match his football talent.

Wilson’s fantasy prospects leave some questions left unanswered though.  The Seahawks transitioned to a more run-heavy approach in 2018 which severely limited Wilson’s volume.  He ranked 20th in passing attempts and 28th in passing yards per game despite his top-10 efficiency.  Wilson also posted his lowest rushing yardage ever thanks to the lowest rushing attempts in his career.   His fantasy season was essentially saved by a ridiculous (and unsustainable) 8.2% touchdown rate which made Wilson the 11th ranked fantasy quarterback in points per game last season.  This is the problem for RSO GMs.  His combination passing/rushing skill-set presents a fantasy ceiling as one of the highest scoring quarterbacks in the NFL.  On the other hand, that ceiling is unattainable if Seattle’s offense remains one of the most run-heavy in the league.

The Baker Mayfield train left the station.

The hopes for Baker field are stratospheric after one of the better rookie seasons ever at quarterback in 2018.  Adding one of the best wide receivers in Beckham Jr. only expands expectations further.  The Browns were already stocked with solid young talent at the skill positions including David Njoku at tight end, wide receivers Jarvis Landry and Antonio Callaway, plus running backs Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt.   If you want Mayfield at this stage, you probably must pay top-end prices.

Lamar Jackson and Jimmy Garoppolo no longer qualify as value buys.

I listed Jackson and Garoppolo as values earlier this offseason based on broader dynasty community prices where both were going off the board as lower-end QB2s.  RSO GMs are having none of that with the duo coming in at QB9 and QB10 going just ahead of Matt Ryan, who put up two overall QB2 fantasy season in the last three years.  The expectations for Jackson and Garoppolo are beyond just good bets at this stage.  If you want either of them on your RSO squad, you likely invest starting quarterback salaries.

The RSO community shares some concerns about Cam Newton’s health.

Fantasy players in general held many legitimate questions surrounding Cam Newton’s shoulder health.  Newton struggled with throwing shoulder injuries the last two seasons resulting in on-field problems.  We just saw Andrew Luck forced to miss an entire season two years ago with a similar injury.  Predictably, the question marks drove Newton’s price down to the QB13 so far this season which is fairly cheap given his multiple top-10 fantasy performances.  The more interesting part of his contract data is the 2.1 average years suggesting some serious long-term questions either about the shoulder or his accumulation of hits due to his physical running style.  Newton presents a possible bargain with reports that he is on track for 100% status before the season starts.

Which quarterbacks survive beyond 2019?

Winston, Flacco, Carr, Dalton, and Mariota all have NFL contracts which expire after 2019 or contain little to no dead money.  Brees, Rivers, Brady, and Manning could retire at any point now.  Miami is very likely in the quarterback hunt during next year’s draft and Detroit is another possibility if things go poorly again in 2019.  All of this information suggests significant turnover at the quarterback position over the next few years with many quarterbacks retiring, transferring teams, or being relegated to backup quarterback duties.  Oakland, Cincinnati, Tampa Bay, Detroit, and Denver are all projected bottom-10 in wins for 2019 according to many betting platforms which puts them all squarely in the “possibly draft a quarterback” group next year.  Tennessee’s constant middle-of-the –pack finishes suggests a possible free agent landing spot for one of the quarterbacks if Mariota does not improve on his mediocre, injury-riddled performances so far.  The RSO market shares this uncertainty with most of these quarterbacks getting short-term deals.

Going cheap at quarterback remains a viable option.

Options remain plentiful for fantasy teams looking at cheaper quarterbacks to rotate on a weekly basis in single QB leagues or in need of a second starter for 2QB leagues.  The veteran quarterback group of Roethlisberger, Cousins, Rivers, and Brady all finished at QB14 or better in fantasy scoring for 2018.  They provide solid weekly floors at the position for bargain prices.   There are also a number of options with the upside to improve on 2018.  Allen ended the season as one of the highest scoring fantasy players over the last month thanks in large part to his scrambling ability.  Antonio Brown, Tyrell Williams, and J.J. Nelson furnish Carr a greatly improved wide receiver core with a drastic increase in game speed over what was in Oakland last season.  Stafford lost his two top receivers to injury and trade in 2018 plus reportedly played injured while in a new offense emphasizing the run.  Dalton played in only 11 games last year and gets back one of the best skill position groups in the NFL.

Bio:  Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

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The Watch List: 2019 Mountain West Season Preview

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By Bob Cowper

Updated: July 14th 2019

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout the Spring and Summer as The Watch List will preview the top prospects and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your valuable draft capital.

Storylines to Watch

Heisman Contender: Jordan Love, QB, Utah State.  Love has the ingredients needed for my mid-major Heisman recipe: efficiency, lots of points and a strong non-conference schedule.  The Aggies, led by Love, will score a lot — they led the MWC in points per game by more than twelve points (47.5).  So, I expect them to be competitive in non-con games against Wake Forest, LSU and BYU.  If Love eclipses 4,000+ passing yards, 40+ total TDs and bags two upsets, he’ll earn a few Heisman votes, a la McKenzie Milton in 2017.

Underclassman to Watch: Toa Taua, RB, Nevada.  Taua started the season as a true freshman role player for the Wolfpack but by mid-season he had earned a larger share of the carries.  He ultimately led the team in rushing with 872 yards and added six scores.  He has an interesting body shape at 5080/220 and an even more interesting following on YouTube.  The video titles I found when searching for him included “The Greatest 12 Year Old Football Player” and “The Most Savage High School Player I Have Ever Seen” and “This Kid is Like Troy Polamalu at Running Back.”  After my short exposure to his highlights, I have to agree.  He’s thick, nigh impossible to arm tackle and has deceiving long speed.  He also deploys subtle, but smart, cuts that allow him to find creases or get out of trouble at the line of scrimmage.  I can’t wait to see the YouTube titles after he blows up the Mountain West in 2019.

Newcomer of the Year: Hank Bachmeier, QB, Boise State.  Bachmeier, a 4-star recruit, joins the Broncos at the perfect time as longtime starter Brett Rypien has graduated.  Bachmeier is labeled as a pro-style quarterback by the recruiting services but he looks like a plus athlete who was too much to handle for high school defenses.  He throws well on the move and spins the deep ball.  I only watched a few minutes of Hudl highlights but I’m already drinking the Kool-Aid and hope Bachmeier gets a chance to start as a true freshman.

Coaching Carousel: Gary Andersen returns to Logan this season to lead Utah State once again.  Andersen left the Aggies in 2012, after earning the school’s first-ever double digit win season (11-2), and has had a rocky few years since.  First, he took the Wisconsin job and led the Badgers to a 19-7 record.  Andersen then unexpectedly took the Oregon State job and was fired mid-way through 2017 after two and a half unsuccessful seasons.  He returns to Utah State and it sounds like neither he nor the fans could forget his initial tenure.  A profile of Andersen in the Salt Lake Tribune makes it clear that Andersen never really left Logan and is content to be back.  It’s fitting that he takes over after the school’s second-ever 11-2 season — he’ll get the chance to see if he can push the team to a twelfth win, something he missed out on last time.

Players to Watch

Jordan Love, QB, Utah State

There was no sophomore slump for Jordan Love in 2018.  In fact, he led the MWC in efficiency and scored 39 total TDs.  In 2019, he’ll be hoping to continue his upward trend and impress NFL scouts enough to come out for the 2020 NFL Draft.  Love checks in at 6040/225 which, historically, is a prototypical build (think: Josh Rosen).  What separates Love from other players in the same size range is that he’s not solely a pocket passer.  Love’s career rushing stats aren’t gaudy, 228-9, but he is an effective short yardage running threat.  I knew I’d have to watch for that when reviewing his film.  I also wanted to get a feel for Love’s arm and awareness.  Let’s get into my observations.

I’ll start by saying that Love is tough as nails.  I watched him against Michigan State and you see it on nearly every play.  The Spartan defense was coming at him and he kept getting up.  When that pressure was in his face, Love did make some poor decisions so improved pocket presence will be important for him (granted, it was the first game of the season so he likely improved already).  Those poor decisions turned into various negative plays — sacks, interceptions, intentional grounding, near fumbles — that could have been avoided.  Yeah, I know, easy for me to say from my couch.  I know Love has the ability to read the game situation and make a positive play, I just want to see him accomplish it more often.  Take these two plays, for example.  In the first, you’ll see Love deliver a strike to his receiver on a 3rd and 7 late in the game with just one second left on the play clock.  The defense, trying to capitalize on the stressful situation, shows blitz but drops into a zone to confuse Love.  He throws to his first read and it turns into a first down.

The second example of Love being able to manage a difficult moment came on the very next play.  Unrattled, he sees the defense trying to make a sub and rushes the snap.  He catches the defense offside and earns a free play with the flag.  That’s a veteran move uncommon for underclassmen.

The Aggies primarily run a quick-hitting passing offense that relies on screens and quick patterns.  That suits Love who has a quick release, which you can see in the first play above.  Love also shows a malleable throwing motion which can be both a blessing and a curse.  It allows him to flexibly get the ball to his receiver when under pressure, but it also causes him to be complacent and short-arm some deep passes.  In a play early against Michigan State, Love comes over the top with his motion to avoid a rusher right in front of him and to ensure a downward trajectory on the ball for his crossing receiver.  It’s hard to see that in gif form but this alternate play better shows Love compacting his motion so he can dump the ball to his running back before the defender gets to him.

Love is a productive runner in short yardage and red zone situations.  He has enough speed to get upfield and has a predictable but useful juke move.  He’s also not afraid to take some contact to get the first or the touchdown.  This play from Michigan State was probably the best illustration of his rushing ability, even though it ended short of the goal line.

I’ll leave you with one of the prettiest passes Love completed in last season’s opener.  He puts his mobility to use as he rolls right and delivers a wonderfully weighted and placed pass over the leaping defender and ahead of his oncoming receiver.  That’s an NFL-quality throw.

I dove deeper into Jordan Love than anticipated because I saw that he has the raw talent to be a future NFL passer.  With some more experience and seasoning, he will be worthy of Day Two consideration in a top-heavy quarterback class.

Jared Rice, TE, Fresno State

I had not heard of Jared Rice before I started my Mountain West research but his 55-664-3 line caught my eye.  He measures in at 6050/238 and has a lanky body type that screams “new age tight end.”  In his sophomore season, Rice averaged 17.6 yards per catch on 22 receptions.  That average came down in 2018 to 12.1, which is okay but hopefully he can split the difference in 2019.  I was only able to watch a very limited sample of Rice — individual plays from Fresno State highlight reels — but what I saw impressed me so I wanted to feature him.

Given his body type and statistics, you’d expect Rice to be a threat in the passing game.  And he is.  Rice appears to be an above average route runner for his age and position.  He excels on vertical routes, especially seams and wheel routes.  He’s also adept at faking blocks to help himself find space.  On this play, you’ll see Rice feint like he is going to block for the bubble screen but instead he bends his run upfield and turns it into a wheel route.  He finds himself in acres of space and makes a fingertip over-the-shoulder catch for a score.

On this next play, you’ll see Rice run another vertical route: a seam.  He is lined up on the line of scrimmage but does not block.  The defense is playing in a zone, however Rice is behind the MLB before he can get to his area of responsibility.  Neither safety is within ten yards and Rice is easily able to find paydirt.

I wasn’t able to observe Rice in any blocking situations so I honestly have no idea how he’ll be in that role.  If he’s able to prove himself as a serviceable blocker, he’ll be very dangerous on plays like those shown above.  Rice is mostly a projection at this point but I’ll keep him on my shortlist for 2020.

Honorable Mentions

Cole McDonald, QB, Hawaii:  McDonald has become a cult hero on #DraftTwitter for the recent news of a twinge-inducing injury complication he played through last season.  He threw for 3,875 yards and 36 TDs and finished Top 10 in the FBS in most passing categories.  McDonald, listed at 6040/205, throws an accurate deep ball and is a rushing threat as well.  He exhibits an attitude and coolness that comes through even in highlights.  It’s early and I have a deep dive yet to do, but my first impression is that McDonald will be a Top 75 prospect in this class.

Juwan Washington, RB, San Diego State: Washington may be small at 5070/190, but he’s more than just a space player.  He’s unafraid to run up the middle and take a hit.  He converted 3rd and short more than 50% of the time each of the last two years and has scored 15 of his 23 career rushing yards from inside the red zone.  He has big play potential, and shows that as a kick returner, but he’s more of a complete runner than most players in his cohort.  His 2018 season was cut short by injury and left him frustratingly at 199 carries for 999 yards (and 10 TDs).  If he can stay healthy and cross the 200-1,000 threshold, I’ll be buying him as a late rookie stash.

Cedric Byrd, WR, Hawaii: Out of Hawaii’s three leading receivers last season, Byrd had the lowest yards per catch average (12.3).  So, going into his highlights, I assumed he was going to just be a dink-and-dunk screen receiver.  That’s not at all what I saw.  Instead, I saw Byrd running myriad routes from the slot and winning over the middle despite being just 5090/170.  Byrd made a number of difficult catches so I think he may have a flair for the acrobatic.  Last season’s leading receiver has graduated so Byrd is poised to explode and has 90+ reception and 1,500+ yard upside.

 

Notes: Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height.  When studying a player I rely on game film “cuts” which are most frequently found on Youtube. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels.  Keep in mind these highlight reels are the best plays of that player. When I have the option, I will choose to watch a game versus the better defense. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching my articles I use a number of valuable resources. I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com, washingtonpost.com
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2020 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com, nfl.com
  • NFL rosters, depth charts and contract info: ourlads.com, spotrac.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft, Cover 3 College Football
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com
  • Odds & Gambling Stats: vegasinsider.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a certified park and recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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The Watch List: 2019 MAC Season Preview

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By Bob Cowper

Updated: July 14th 2019

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout the Spring and Summer as The Watch List will preview the top prospects and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your valuable draft capital.

Storylines to Watch

Heisman Contender: Nathan Rourke, QB, Ohio.  In a recent article for The Athletic, writer Max Olson compiled a list of 2018 quarterbacks who led the FBS in his preferred efficiency metric: Yards Per Play.  The leaders in the stat, Alabama QBs Tua Tagovailoa and Jalen Hurts, were no surprise.  The third name on the list was unexpected for me: Nathan Rourke.  I expect Rourke to stay atop the leaderboard and put up gaudy numbers in 2019.

Underclassman to Watch: Jaret Patterson, RB, Buffalo.  Patterson won MAC Freshman of the Year honors in 2018 with an impressive 1,013-14 output.  He’s listed at 5090/195 but looks bigger in highlights because of his play style.  Patterson is difficult to bring down because of his excellent contact balance and his powerful leg drive.  At the line of scrimmage he has shifty and frequent feet which help him pick his way through the trash.  Another 1,000+ yard season seems like a lock since the Bulls passing offense was gutted by transfers and players leaving for the NFL.  The offensive focus will need to be Patterson and his running mate Kevin Marks (6000/200, 845-13).

Newcomer of the Year: Joachim Bangda, RB, Kent State.  I wasn’t expecting to feature a player from Kent State in my preview but I came across Bangda’s name in Phil Steele’s preview magazine.  Steele had Bangda ranked as a “very highly touted” recruit and his 38th best running back of the class (other recruiting services had him ranked 31st, 67th and 69th).  According to a local news report, Bangda originally committed to Georgia Tech but flipped when coach Paul Johnson retired; he also had scholarship offers from Alabama, Ohio State and Michigan among others.  I watched Bangda’s pinned Hudl reel and he appears to be a powerful, angry runner who can break tackles and has ample speed to get the edge.  Incumbent senior Jo-El Shaw may begin the season as the nominal starter but Bangda should end the year with more touches.

Coaching Carousel: Does Jim McElwain’s name sound familiar?  It might because the Internet had a lot of fun at his expense a few years ago when he “had to field questions about whether or not he’d humped a dead shark while naked on the deck of a boat.”  McElwain joined Michigan as their receivers coach last year, partly I presume to restart his career after Florida and partly to get away from the ocean.  This year McElwain finds himself at the helm of the Central Michigan Chippewas.  CMU had an abysmal 1-11 mark last season but had gone to four consecutive bowl games prior.  McElwain should bring a Power 5 recruiting touch with him and right the ship.

Player to Watch

 

Nathan Rourke, QB, Ohio

Nathan Rourke has been immensely productive since joining the Bobcats in 2017.  He easily leads the MAC in touchdowns responsible for (passing + rushing) over the last two seasons with 77 — his next closest competition was Buffalo’s Tyree Jackson who had a total of 51.  Much of Rourke’s offensive impact comes on the ground in an option-heavy offense but he still managed to improve his passing efficiency stats last season.  Since Rourke’s pro scouting report is going to hinge on his passing ability, I wanted to concentrate on that aspect of his game during my film study.

The Ohio passing offense relies on short and quick patterns so it was disappointing to see Rourke’s accuracy match his subpar career completion percentage (57.4%).  I was hopeful that the percentage might have been dragged down by numerous missed deep balls.  In both games I watched, Buffalo 2018 and Bowling Green 2018, Rourke sailed an early pass that should have been an easy completion.  There were also multiple missed short outs.  There were a few short passes that lacked touch too.  Overall though, he did lead receivers well on swing and screen passes.  Rourke’s ball placement improved on targets in the middle of the field where he could better anticipate the receiver’s movement.  On this pass he is able to step up in the pocket and delivery a strike, in stride, which leads to a score.

Maybe it would be more accurate to say that Rourke has inconsistent ball placement and touch because there are some moments when he flashes.  On this play, for example, Rourke throws a nice 25-yard back-shoulder touch pass to the end zone which results in a touchdown.

I only saw a few deep passes from Rourke and I believe this was the only one I saw him complete.  He essentially throws his speedy receiver open by leading him towards the middle of the field.  It’s the type of pass he’ll need to complete more of in 2019 in order to fill out his repertoire.

Ohio’s offense features a lot of option which is ideal for Rourke.  He is also quick to evade the pocket and scramble.  As a runner he is patient and elusive.  He does not have much straight-line speed but he is able to plant his foot and burst upfield for bonus yardage.  He’s also not afraid of contact, in fact he often initiates it.  In this clip you can see Rourke’s improvisational skill which makes him a dangerous scrambler.

I had a hard time settling on a final verdict for Rourke.  I have enjoyed watching him so far in his career and I really wanted to see a draftable quarterback.  Ultimately, I think he’s a fantastic college quarterback, however, I think he lacks the polish as a passer to be a true NFL prospect.

Honorable Mentions

Quinten Dormady, QB, Central Michigan: I had never heard of Dormady prior to my MAC research but my interest was piqued because he had such an interesting path to CMU.  He was a 4-star recruit out of high school who 247Sports predicted would land at Alabama.  He chose Tennessee instead and transferred after just thirteen appearances over three seasons.  He went to Houston where he sat behind D’Eriq King and ultimately took a redshirt.  Now he’s likely to be the leading signal caller for the Chippewas.  He has NFL size at 6040/222 but he’s the ultimate wildcard right now.  He could be the reason they upset Wisconsin or Miami; or he could end up benched and buried on a depth chart with two returners and two new signees.  In his Tennessee highlights, Dormady looks like a throwback quarterback, circa 1995, so I’m actually very excited to watch him in the aforementioned Power 5 tests.

Jonathan Ward, RB, Central Michigan: I wrote about Ward a number of times last year because I was expecting him to progress after a flag-planting 2017 outing.  In 2017, Ward had 178-1,024-10 rushing and added 48-470-3 receiving.  The receiving numbers are what stood out to me because you rarely see that production from a college running back.  Ward was ineffective to begin 2018 and then finished the season hurt, totaling just 253 yards on 88 touches.  I’m hopeful he’ll regain his role and rebound in 2019 because he has a promising combination of size (6000/202), speed, power and hands.

Levante Bellamy, RB, Western Michigan: Bellamy is a smaller scat and speed back who returned from a season-ending injury in 2017 to earn first team All-MAC honors last season.  He’s a burner — apparently he ran a 4.32 laser-timed 40 yard dash last season — and it shows on his highlight reels.  At just 5090/185, he shows enough strength to shrug off chasing defenders and does surprisingly well battling through traffic.  Bellamy contributes as a receiver (30 receptions) but unfortunately that aspect of his game was largely absent from the film I watched (he did have one impressive catch on a swing pass though).  Bellamy shared carries last year but will be the unquestioned lead back in 2019 which will allow him to make a name for himself.

 

Notes: Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height.  When studying a player I rely on game film “cuts” which are most frequently found on Youtube. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels.  Keep in mind these highlight reels are the best plays of that player. When I have the option, I will choose to watch a game versus the better defense. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching my articles I use a number of valuable resources. I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com, washingtonpost.com
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2020 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com, nfl.com
  • NFL rosters, depth charts and contract info: ourlads.com, spotrac.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft, Cover 3 College Football
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com
  • Odds & Gambling Stats: vegasinsider.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a certified park and recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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