Monthly Archives: August 2019

The Watch List: 2019 Big Ten Season Preview

Reply

By Bob Cowper

Updated: August 30th 2019

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout the Spring and Summer as The Watch List will preview the top prospects and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your valuable draft capital.

Storylines to Watch

Heisman Contender: Jonathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin.  Three non-QBs have won the Heisman since 2000: Derrick Henry, Mark Ingram and Reggie Bush.  All three running backs rushed for 1,600+ yards and had at least 16 rushing touchdowns.  Taylor should match those numbers by mid-November.  Taylor will earn Heisman votes again in 2019 — he finished 6th in Heisman voting in 2017 and 9th in 2018 — and if Wisconsin contends for the Big Ten he’s likely to get an invite to New York.

Underclassman to Watch: Rondale Moore, WR, Purdue.  Moore is the most exciting playmaker in the Big Ten.  Full stop.  Moore totaled 180 touches as a receiver, rusher and returner and amassed 2,215 all-purpose yards.  His 14 touchdowns from scrimmage were second best in the conference to Taylor (as were his 1,471 yards from scrimmage).  Moore would be difficult to tackle if you were both locked inside a phone booth.  He’s lightning quick and fast in the open field; he is also more physical than you’d assume by looking at him (5090/180).  Moore is easily on the short list for 2021 and could give Justyn Ross some competition for the fantasy WR1 spot in that class.

Newcomer of the Year: Justin Fields, QB, Ohio State.  Just a year ago, Fields was a 5-star recruit joining an uber-talented Georgia Bulldogs team.  Fields saw the field sparingly as a true freshman and when it was clear that he could not wrest the starting job away from Jake Fromm, he decided to transfer.  There was some question as to his eligibility waiver, but it was approved by the NCAA and he’s clear to play immediately.  Fields chose Ohio State and was just recently announced as the starter for Week 1.  Last year at Georgia he was responsible for eight touchdowns — four passing and four rushing.  He was efficient too, averaging 6.2 yards per carry and completing nearly 70% of his passes.  Ryan Day takes over as the Ohio State head coach this year so we should expect some changes on offense but the Buckeyes will still hang points.  Look out for 4,000 combined yards and 40 total TDs. (Honorable mention: Hunter Johnson, QB, Northwestern.  Johnson is also a former 5-star recruit.  He moved on from Clemson after the signing of Trevor Lawrence.  After four years of stability with Clayton Thorson under center, the Wildcats will lean on Johnson’s pedigree to repeat as division champs.)

Coaching Carousel: The newest head coach in the league is Maryland’s Mike Locksley.  Locksley isn’t even 50 yet but is well-traveled.  Interestingly, this is his third stint at Maryland.  In his decade-plus of previous experience at Maryland, Locksley held a number of titles: running back coach, quarterback coach, offensive coordinator, interim head coach.  As a head coach, Locksley has just three wins and thirty-one losses.  He spent the last three years as an assistant under Nick Saban at Alabama so I’m sure Terps fans expect Locksley to be ready for the spotlight now.  The biggest coaching change in the Big Ten though is in Columbus where Ryan Day officially takes over for Urban Meyer.  The hand-off seemed likely after Day served as interim coach during Meyer’s three game suspension last September, but it was still big news.  With Meyer’s on-again-off-again history, would anybody have been surprised if he had decided to return?  I’m not ruling out another coaching gig for Meyer elsewhere in 2020, but this is Day’s team now.

Players to Watch

JK Dobbins, RB, Ohio State

This is the eighth time that JK Dobbins has landed on The Watch List.  I first mentioned him way back in October 2017 when he was a true freshman who grabbed the job from a banged up Mike Weber.  My most recent article including Dobbins was the first iteration of my 2020 fantasy mock draft.  In that mock draft, I slotted Dobbins as the 1.03 and the second RB off the board (behind Georgia’s D’Andre Swift).  It appears that I’m higher on Dobbins than other #DraftTwitter rankers so I am looking forward to seeing how this season unfolds for him and the Buckeyes.  At the next level, Dobbins will be a do-it-all back who does it all well.

Before we look at some of his best traits, let’s take a quick look at his stats.  Dobbins rushed for 1,403 yards in 2017 and 1,053 in 2018.  Frustratingly for fans like myself, his yards per carry decreased from 7.2 to 4.6 over those two seasons.  He’s an active receiver with a career line of 48-398-3.  My biggest concern about Dobbins, if you caught me in a moment of candor, is his lack of big plays.  I recently studied the big play output of my top five running backs — D’Andre Swift, Dobbins, Travis Etienne, Jonathan Taylor and Trey Sermon — and Dobbins came in dead last in each of the three categories.  I haven’t done any research as to whether big play output is predictive of NFL success so I’m not letting it worry me yet but it’s something to keep filed away.

When I study Dobbins, I see a player that uses his compact frame and low center of gravity to his advantage.  He’s listed at 5100/214 but may be a tick shorter; he’s thicc.  This sturdy base helps him hold his ground in pass protection (good technique and play recognition don’t hurt either).  It’s rare to share a blocking highlight for a running back in a preseason preview but I feel that strongly that his pass protection ability will be one of the reasons he gets drafted in the Top 100.  On this play you can see that the coaching staff trusts him as a blocker because he’s isolated on the right side.  His first thought is to help his right tackle but then he sees a corner coming on a blitz so he shuffles his feet and squares up the rusher.  He makes first contact and spins the defender away from the quarterback and finishes his block off-camera.  It wasn’t a de-cleater of a block but it was executed well and shows each facet of his blocking ability.

Unsurprisingly, Dobbins runs with some pop and power.  My notes are strewn with comments like “breaks arm tackle” or “pushes pile.”  Rather than showing a play where Dobbins plowed up the middle for a short yardage victory, I decided to highlight this play instead.  You’ll see Dobbins determination pay off as he gets stuffed, keeps his feet moving and finds a way out.  He manages to keep his feet and dives for the end zone.  He’s short of the score but it’s illustrative of what his runs often look like.

Lest you think Dobbins is simply a power rusher (and productive receiver and reliable pass protector), I’m here to tell you that he has some wheels as well.  I think Dobbins has 4.45 speed, if not better.  In high school he reportedly ran a 4.44; at an OSU combine event he ran a 4.32.  That time is surely favorable, but for comparison Denzel Ward and Parris Campbell ran just .09 and .05 seconds slower at the NFL Combine than they did at OSU.  So it’s definitely possible that Dobbins could run a 4.40.  In the last five years, just two running backs have ran 4.40 or better at more than 210 lbs: Keith Marshall and Saquon Barkley.  It’s safe to say that Dobbins ends up somewhere between those two disparate career paths, but I’d skew closer to Barkley because the fact is that few backs are that big and that quick.

When I think about Dobbins I can’t help but think of the famous line from an Elizabeth Barrett Browning poem, “How do I love thee? / Let me count the ways.”  Dobbins is a jack-of-all-trades, without that pesky master-of-none caveat, and will be a Top 100 player in 2020.

 

Johnathan Taylor, RB, Wisconsin

Oh, Jonathan Taylor.  I love watching Taylor play but it’s always bittersweet for me as a New Jersey native and Rutgers fan.  Taylor, who hails from southern Jersey, always had his eye on Wisconsin and Badger fans are grateful.  In two seasons in Madison, Taylor has 606 carries for 4,171 yards and 29 TDs.  Those numbers are impressive and if he can repeat his successes in 2019 his career stats will be staggering.  In the aforementioned study of big plays, I was shocked to see that Taylor had SIXTY-ONE runs of 10+ yards in 2018.  Again, I have no research to show that that stat is predictive of anything but I love it nonetheless.

One of the most frequent talking points for a running back is the “tread on the tires” and it is reasonable to worry about wear and tear on his body.  He’s been durable so far though so I’m not going to ding his stock due to a high volume of carries.  If it does worry you, think of it this way: he does play in an NFL style offense so he should be able to adjust quickly and not waste precious time adapting.  Perhaps most concerning for Taylor’s prospects is his lack of involvement in the passing game.  In 27 career games, Taylor has just 16 receptions.  Per MaxPreps, Taylor had just 9 receptions in his last two seasons in high school.

Let’s get into what makes Taylor so much fun to watch.  Taylor is a momentum runner who can punish defenses when he makes a decisive cut.  In this play against Miami from 2018, Taylor hits the second level and makes an effective cut which puts him in position to break two ankle tackles and pick up a few extra yards.

Taylor is outstanding at turning a short gain into a longer one.  In this next play, Taylor gets bottled up at the line of scrimmage but he remains patient and finds a hole.  In a blink he has the entire defense chasing him Keystone Cops style.

Taylor’s speed is something that will be talked about a lot this season.  In my offseason notes I put down that I thought he had 4.55 speed with good acceleration.  The evidence points to me being wrong on his top-end speed though.  Taylor made Bruce Feldman’s Freaks List and was a former high school track star.  In Feldman’s article, he shares that Taylor ran a 4.30 this offseason.  I’m open minded and willing to admit I might have been wrong about Taylor’s speed.

Taylor is within 2,234 yards of the FBS record for career rushing yards and I’m hopeful that he puts up another monster season and breaks the mark.  Even if it’s not a record-breaking season, I expect Taylor to come out for the 2020 NFL Draft.  If he does declare early, Taylor will be a Top 5 back in the class.

Honorable Mentions

Nathan Stanley, QB, Iowa: The Big Ten has a number of quarterback prospects who are on the fringe of being draftable. I don’t feel confident about it but right now I’d pick Stanley over Shea Patterson or Brian Lewerke. Honestly, I think it might be the fact that I’ve seen less of Stanley and so the unknown makes me wonder about his potential. Of the three, Stanley is the biggest (a stout 6040/43) and has the most experience (31 games, 26 starts).  He also plays in a pro-style offense that has consistently produced NFL talent.  In highlights it looks like Stanley has great touch and adequate arm strength.  As I write this and the more I watch of his highlights, the more I’m ready to talk myself into Stanley as a Top 10 quarterback in this class.

KJ Hill, WR, Ohio State: Hill is a productive slot receiver whose route running is top notch.  He sells his changes of direction well which allows him to get open when some other receivers would still be covered.  Hill is good for some run after catch yardage and features a spin-out move that is effective.  He’s a willing blocker and has above average play strength.  One of my favorite #DraftTwitter follows is Mark Jarvis of @WhatsOnDraftNFL and he currently has Hill as his WR1 for the 2020 class.  Jarvis watches a ton of tape so I’m happy to see that a player I liked made (the top of) his list.

Tyler Johnson, WR, Minnesota: When all is said and done come January, I think Tyler Johnson could be the 2020 prospect with the widest range of potential outcomes.  I’ve seen him ranked as high as WR1 and have also seen analysts leave him off their rankings altogether.  I’m somewhere in between those extremes.  Johnson can win both inside and out so he’s a high-volume target in an otherwise mediocre Gopher offense.  His feet are explosive off the snap and out of his breaks and he understands how to uncover to make himself a target.  After the catch he’s a dynamic runner who is elusive and break-away fast.  Before we commit to any hot takes about Johnson, let’s wait and see how he fares in 2019.  Right now, I would predict that a solid NFL Combine cements Johnson to a mid-rounder.

Donovan Peoples-Jones, WR, Michigan: Donovan Peoples-Jones is part of a talented group of receivers in Ann Arbor that also includes Nico Collins and Tarik Black.  Peoples-Jones is the only of the three who has stayed healthy in his first two seasons though, so he has a leg up when it comes to his draft stock.  In addition to being a solid possession receiver with good body control, Peoples-Jones excels as a punt returner — he leads the NCAA in returns and is third in yards over the last two seasons.  His open-field running skills are on display after the catch as well.  Peoples-Jones probably hasn’t proven himself enough to garner much hype yet but keep an eye on him.

 

Notes: Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height.  When studying a player I rely on game film “cuts” which are most frequently found on Youtube. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels.  Keep in mind these highlight reels are the best plays of that player. When I have the option, I will choose to watch a game versus the better defense. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching my articles I use a number of valuable resources. I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com, washingtonpost.com
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2020 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com, nfl.com
  • NFL rosters, depth charts and contract info: ourlads.com, spotrac.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft, Cover 3 College Football
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com
  • Odds & Gambling Stats: vegasinsider.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a certified park and recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

The Watch List 2021: Early WR Tiers

Throughout the offseason I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past years I’ve done […]

The Watch List 2021: Early RB Tiers

Throughout the offseason I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past years I’ve done […]

The Watch List 2021: Championship Game Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]

The Watch List 2021: Early TE Tiers

Throughout the offseason I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past years I’ve done […]

The Watch List 2021: Week 13 Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]

The Watch List 2021: Early QB Tiers

Throughout the rest of the season I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past […]

The Watch List 2021: Week 11 Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]

The Watch List 2021: Week 10 Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]

Early 2019 RSO Contracts: TEs

Reply

By Bernard Faller

Updated: August 26th 2019

My annual look at early RSO auction values finishes with the tight end group.  The series was designed to give the reader help in planning for upcoming auctions by looking at actual RSO auctions already finished.  The data comes from a variety of different types of leagues with varying scoring rules and starting requirements which can drastically alter player values so be cautious in expecting values to match your particular league.  The number of auctions for any particular player may also be limited this early in the RSO season.  The information does provide a useful starting point for examining how RSO owners value players at a certain position relative to one another and the length of contract they are willing to invest.

Average RSO Tight End Contracts

Tiers of One at the Top

The fantasy football realm tended to treat the top-3 tight ends (Kelce, Kittle, and Ertz) as a tier of their own early in the offseason.   There were very real reasons for this grouping.  Each earned at least 136 targets with two of the trio receiving at least 150.  Each caught at least 86 passes with two racking up 103 or more.  Each accumulated 1,163 yards with two breaking the 1,300 yard barrier.  In other words, 2018 was a historic season at the top of the tight end group.  Each tight should continue as a main piece of their respective offenses, while maybe not at the historic paces of 2018.  Each faces additional long or short –term concerns going forward.

RSO GMs made very clear price distinctions between the three, however.  Kelce heads the group at over $5 million more than the next tight end.  The Kansas City star should be locked in for another great year.  The only concerns center on the longer-term.  He is already 29 (The age Rob Gronkowski just retired at) and turns 30 in just a few months.  Kelce also dealt with injury issues recently including multiple concussions and “cleanup” procedures on his shoulder and knee.  Kittle faces much more target competition at both wide receiver and running back in 2019.  He also goes from a tight end friendly environment primarily with backup quarterbacks whom were among the league’s lowest depth of average target to a quarterback that targets deeper receivers more consistently.  Ertz is another high-end tight end facing new offensive options vying for receptions.   The addition of DeSean Jackson in Philadelphia brings a legitimate 3rd wide receiver option to Philadelphia and second tight end Dallas Goedert looks like a bigger piece of the offense in year two.

Hunter Henry also separated himself from the next tier in cost, receiving a sizeable premium in RSO auction prices.  He posted strong PFF grades his first two seasons in limited usage.   We still do not know how well  Henry integrates into the Chargers offensive game plan as a full time player and how far back he is after missing 2018 due to injury.

 

The Class of 2017

Three former 1st round picks from the 2017 draft class highlight the next tier of tight ends.  We start with Howard and Engram who saw huge 2nd year jumps in 2018.  Both finished as top-6 PFF-graded tight ends last year.  Howard is on a Tampa Bay offense many project as one of the top yardage-gainers for 2019.  Engram has been a top-5 fantasy tight end without Odell Beckham in the lineup during his first two years.  Each has dealt with injury issues the first two seasons of their careers.  Howard remains the likely third option in Tampa Bay.  Engram probably garners something near a co-number one type target share in New York but with some combination of Eli Manning and rookie Daniel Jones at the quarterback for the near future.  David Njoku is taking a little more time along the development curve.  That makes sense given he was only 20 years old when drafted.  The athletic specimen for Cleveland is attached to what many consider one of the top young quarterbacks in the league.  The question is whether Njoku can become a large enough part of the offense to justify his price.

We should keep an eye on a couple of veterans in this pricing tier.  Jared Cook set career highs in most categories last season at the age of 31.  He transfers to New Orleans adding a much needed target for Drew Brees on a team without much in the way of reliable receiving options outside of Michael Thomas and Alvin Kamara.  Eric Ebron* also had a career season after signing with Indianapolis last year.  He scored 13 touchdowns after never scoring more than 5 in his career previously.  His role likely diminishes in 2019, along with the number of his touchdowns, after the additions of Devin Funchess and Parris Campbell to go along with the return of Jack Doyle.

*Andrew Luck’s retirement was just announced.  This news significantly downgrades the upside of Ebron for 2019.

 

Others to Watch

The Pittsburg Steelers traded Antonio Brown this offseason and that opens up a bunch of opportunity for Vance McDonald on a high-volume passing team without much in reliable receiving options outside of Juju Smith-Schuster.  Chris Herndon showed good chemistry with Sam Darnold and played well as a rookie, something rare.  He likely comes at a discount with a four-game suspension to start the season.  Greg Olsen, Jack Doyle, Delanie Walker, and Jordan Reed represent extremely cheap older veterans who, while not league winners, could potentially prop up your fantasy team on a weekly basis.  The talk of Raiders camp, outside of the Antonio Brown’s behavior, has been Darren Waller.  Linebackers and defensive backs consistently struggled covering the uber-athletic former wide receiver this offseason.

Bio:  Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

More Analysis by Bernard Faller

Evaluating Rushers into 2022

Evaluating running backs is a notoriously difficult task using many basic statistics as running back production relies extensively on many […]

Looking Forward: Expectations for the NFL Salary Cap

Covid issues created unique salary cap problems for the NFL following the 2020 season.  The NFL salary cap unexpectedly dropped […]

2022 RSO Writer’s League Rookie Draft

Rookie drafts for Reality Sports Online teams involve a number of considerations different than a normal dynasty league.  Selected rookies […]

2022 NFL Free Agency Look

This free agency group once looked liked a great one, particularly at wide receiver.  Franchise tags to some of the […]

Strength of Schedule Targets

With the fantasy regular season nearing the end in most RSO leagues, owners with competitive teams need to begin thinking […]

RSO Decision: Extensions

The decision of whether to extend a player or not is one of the crucial points for Reality Sports Online […]

2018 Rookie RSO Extension Candidates

The 2018 NFL rookie class plays the final year of four-year contracts in the NFL and most Reality Sports Online […]

RSO Roster Construction: Player Tier Variation

The question of optimal roster construction remains a mystery to many in RSO leagues.  How much should I allocate to […]

The Watch List: 2019 SEC Season Preview

Reply

By Bob Cowper

Updated: August 25th 2019

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout the Spring and Summer as The Watch List will preview the top prospects and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your valuable draft capital.

Storylines to Watch

Heisman Contender: Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama.  Tagovailoa, the 2018 runner-up, is my preseason pick to win the 2019 Heisman.  He’ll need to fend off Oregon’s Justin Herbert for the QB1 mantle, but Tagovailoa has the inside track for the trophy because he’ll put up bigger numbers and contend for a championship.

Underclassman to Watch: JaTarvious Whitlow, RB, Auburn. Redshirt sophomore running back JaTarvious Whitlow earned the starting job last season but battled multiple injuries which limited his effectiveness in a few games.  He finished with a 787-6 rushing line and added 15-173-2 as a receiver.  Whitlow is wide-shouldered and stout, and runs with a downhill style; his style is especially effective when the defense is spread wide and Whitlow can find creases between the tackles.  He served as the team’s wildcat quarterback and I would expect even more trick plays this year, like the touchdown pass he threw against Georgia.  Whitlow will be pushed by senior Kam Martin and freshman Mark-Antony Richards.  It’s still unclear who will be handing off to the running backs, either redshirt freshman Joey Gatewood or true freshman Bo Nix.  Head coach Gus Malzahn has been coy about who his season opening starter will be.  Regardless, the Tigers backfield is set for years to come. [Editor’s note: Bo Nix was named the starter.]

Newcomer of the Year: Riley Neal, QB, Vanderbilt.  The draft stocks of the Commodores’ three NFL-ready prospects — RB Ke-Shawn Vaughn, WR Kalija Lipscomb and TE Jared Pinkney — will rely heavily on graduate transfer quarterback Riley Neal.  Neal joins from Ball State where he battled injury and inconsistency the last few seasons.  He’s experienced with 34 career games and has NFL size at 6060/225 but is his arm worthy of the SEC?  Neal’s pro upside may be limited to that of a camp arm, however he’ll be a capable game manager that can get Vanderbilt their first winning season since 2013.

Coaching Carousel: There’s not a single new head coach in the SEC this season, so instead we’ll concentrate on the coach on the hottest seat.  That’s likely Arkansas gipper Chad Morris.  Morris left SMU after just three seasons, finishing with a 14-23 record and just one bowl game (a 51-10 shellacking from Louisiana Tech).  Prior to SMU, he made a name for himself as Clemson’s offensive coordinator from 2011-2014, the first four seasons of their rise under Dabo Swinney.  I think we’re twelve disappointing games away from realizing that Morris wasn’t yet ready to land an SEC head coaching job.

Players to Watch

Tua Tagovailoa, QB, Alabama

For the last three years, #DraftTwitter has been talking about Tua Tagovailoa so his impending draft eligibility feels bittersweet.  By now, Tua’s story is well known to even casual fans but let’s hit the highlights here.  Tagovailoa, a lefty from Hawaii, was the top quarterback prospect in the 2017 class according to multiple recruiting services.  Despite his tremendous potential, he was the understudy for much of the 2017 season.  That is, until the Hollywood-esque climax in the national championship game where he came in at halftime to spell an ineffective Jalen Hurts.  Tagovailoa kept the starting job in 2018 and led the Tide to another championship appearance on his way to a second place Heisman finish.  The 2019 season starts with even larger expectations as Tagovailoa is the unquestioned leader — Hurts grad transferred to Oklahoma — and has an incomparable receiving corps at his fingertips.

Plenty of digital ink has been spilled on Tagovailoa and his best traits so it’s doubtful I’m blazing any new trails in my analysis.  He throws a beautifully weighted deep ball that always manages to lead the receiver just right.  He is a jazz maestro who can improvise when a play breaks down.  When he wants to be, he can be mobile and pick-up key first downs with his feet.  His pocket awareness is typically great and he can tap dance his way out of pressure while keeping his eyes downfield.  Tagovailoa has such an innate ability to succeed on any given play that it can actually be difficult to put into words.

Like you, I watched plenty of Alabama football last season.  However, I wanted to look at Tagovailoa with fresh eyes so I concentrated on two 2018 game films: Tennessee and Georgia.  Much of my initial assumptions about his play held, but it was clear to me that there were two aspects of his game that I should highlight.

In this play against Tennessee, you’ll see what it looks like when Tagovailoa is at his improvisational best.  He starts going through his progressions as the play unfolds.  There’s a split second where he considers leaving the pocket but instead he keeps looking for an open receiver.  He ultimately sees Jerry Jeudy in single coverage.  Jeudy recognizes that his quarterback is in trouble and looks to get open.  He starts towards the center of the field to give Tagovailoa a shorter throw, but instead, Tagovailoa leads him towards the far sideline of the end zone.  Even from the opposite hash, the ball is placed well.  Any cross-body throw can be dangerous but it seems like Jeudy was the only one in position to make a play.  I bet it was a conscious decision to throw Jeudy towards the sideline so that the sitting defender was out of the play.

You’ll see similar scramble drill touchdowns strewn throughout Tagovailoa’s highlights.  There are a number of times that it doesn’t work out positively though.  I think that he wins so often that it’s difficult for Tagovailoa to realize when a sack or a throw-away are the best available options.  In this play against Georgia, he pirouettes his way into an eleven yard loss.  He was already outside the pocket when he set his feet the first time so once he realized he didn’t have an open receiver he could have thrown it away for another shot from the six yard line.  Instead, he threw an interception on the next play.

My favorite play of Tagovailoa’s from this study came in the third quarter of the Tennessee game.  The game was well in hand and this score actually was his last snap of the game.  What stood out was his ability to manipulate the pocket with his feet.  Tagovailoa often shows a feel for when to climb the pocket, when to sidestep the rush or when to escape, but this play against Tennessee was just wonderful.  It’s hard to see it in GIF form but if you watch the actual footage on YouTube and slow it down you can really see how natural his pocket mobility can be.  After he drops back he feels the pressure coming from the right side, his blindside.  He steps up then takes two subtle steps to his right.  These gather steps, as I’ll call them, are what screamed out to me to be featured in this preview.  By moving to his right, Tagovailoa is able to get a few steps further away from the collapsing pocket and gives himself a better throwing lane.  It also puts him square in the sight of the middle linebacker who is coming on a delayed rush.  Tagovailoa surely sees the linebacker sprinting straight at him but he still delivers a lofted deep ball.  The receiver is able to get underneath it and has just enough length to make the play in stride.  I loved it.

It’s clear to me that Tagovailoa has a natural ability that can transcend.  I think he has the potential to be truly special.  I do think he has some more to show NFL scouts though, such as making smarter decisions under pressure and that he can limit the accumulation of small injuries.  We’ll be debating Tua Tagovailoa versus Justin Herbert all season and I can’t wait.  If Tagovailoa isn’t the first overall pick in April, he’ll surely be off the board second or third.

Honorable Mentions

With so many NFL prospects in the SEC, I found myself struggling to decide who to feature in the Players to Watch section.  In an effort to give readers a feel for the breadth of NFL talent in the conference, I decided to give Tua Tagovailoa a full spotlight and then include more honorable mentions than I usually do.

Jake Fromm, QB, Georgia: Fromm pulled a “Wally Pipp” in 2017, stealing the starting job when incumbent Jacob Eason went down with an injury in the season opener.  He hasn’t looked back since, mostly because his success forced both Eason and the highly touted Justin Fields to transfer.  Eason is battling for the job at Washington and Fields is expected to be the number one for Ohio State.  I’ve often viewed Fromm as a game-manager type but I need to reconsider due to the the fact that he beat out two guys who may lead their respective teams to playoff contention.  Fromm is listed at 6020/220 and looks cocked and ready in the pocket as he scans the field.  He confidently slings it in highlights.  Fromm isn’t a threat to take off running but he shows good functional mobility in the pocket.  I predict NFL teams will feel he’s immediately pro-ready and he’ll be drafted higher than #DraftTwitter rates him.

Lamical Perine, RB, Florida: Perine has been the beneficiary of some recent online hype so I decided I should take a look at some highlights to get a feel for his game.  I didn’t note any elite physical traits, but Perine doesn’t need them to succeed because in my short study it appears that he has fantastic patience and vision.  He sets up his blocks well and keeps his eyes forward to find his next avenue.  One specific run against Vanderbilt sealed it for me because he essentially hid in his blocker’s shadow, with a hand on his back, for much of the 20+ yard run.  I never seem to watch much Gator football but if Perine crests 1,000 yards this year he’ll be on my short list for offseason study.

D’Andre Swift, RB, Georgia: Swift is my current 1.01 for 2020 rookie drafts.  He’s a smart runner who takes excellent angles in the second level and can make tacklers miss with strong cuts.  Swift is also an excellent receiver who runs multiple routes, uses his hands to catch and adjusts well to the ball in the air.  I noted he’s very aware pre-snap, reading the defense and his assignment, which signals to me that he has potential to be an excellent pass protector as he develops.  Swift doesn’t have the short area speed that some other backs in the class have but his long speed is more than enough to break off long runs.  The 2020 running back class could be historic and Swift will be one of the reasons why.

Ke’Shawn Vaughn, RB, Vanderbilt: Vaughn is a former Illinois transfer who showed out in his first season in Nashville.  He ended the year with 1,244 rushing yards and 12 TDs; his 7.9 yards per carry led the SEC.  Vaughn runs with a useful combination of power and speed: he can convert near the goal line and has a 4.45 top speed.  I also noted great contact balance which helps him keep runs alive after contact.  His vision is also a plus.  I thought he showed an innate ability to find cut back lanes and secondary holes.  When he does find these, he sticks his foot in the ground and generates enough push to bounce outside or get upfield.  As a fifth year senior, Vaughn is an older prospect which might limit his NFL window but he should still factor in at the next level.

Bryan Edwards, WR, South Carolina: Edwards is a powerfully built outside receiver who tracks the ball well and frequently secures difficult catches.  He’s fast enough at the college level to separate and be a downfield threat, but I think his NFL role will be more of a reliable possession receiver.  That role will best suit his play strength and body control which allow him to excel along the sidelines and when contested.  Edwards isn’t a sexy name in this class but he has a high floor and is likely to be fantasy relevant in the pros.

Jerry Jeudy, WR, Alabama: Jerry Jeudy really deserved a larger write-up for this preview.  However, I know he’s somebody I will be writing about throughout the season so I thought it was best to sacrifice some column inches here in order to highlight a few other players.  Jeudy is sudden as a route runner — he can change directions in a blink and can stop on a dime.  He displays both long and short speed with what I described in my notes as “incredible acceleration.”  The biggest knock on Jeudy will be his size.  At a lean 6010/192, Jeudy needs to prove that his body can withstand the punishment of an NFL season.  Perhaps the criticism is unfair because Jeudy played in all 29 of Alabama’s games in his first two seasons (he did have a minor knee surgery before the 2018 season but didn’t miss any of the regular season).  If he paces a talented group of Tide receivers again in 2019, Jeudy will contend for the 1.01 in 2020 rookie drafts.

Kalija Lipscomb, WR, Vanderbilt: Kalija Lipscomb is deployed all over the field: as a receiver he lines up on both sides, inside and out; he takes hand-offs; he returned punts his first two seasons.  I watched Lipscomb against Georgia and Notre Dame from last season and came away impressed with his route running.  He uses leverage well, varies his speed to confuse the corner and can suddenly change direction.  Lipscomb is listed at 6010/201 but looks more wiry than that, especially in his lower body.  Despite that, he’s feisty, often hand fighting on his route and not being afraid to throw a block or come across the middle.  Lipscomb is a do-everything receiver who will find a role in the NFL, likely out of the slot and on special teams.

Henry Ruggs, WR, Alabama: Henry Ruggs stood out among a crowd of Alabama pass catchers because of his his sticky-strong hands.  The highlight reel I watched was subtitled “go go gadget hands” in a nod to the Inspector Gadget character, and it fits Ruggs.  He can make tough hands catches away from his body, even with a defender on his back.  I was also impressed with him after the catch because he runs with great burst and an abandon that belies his stature.  Ruggs and fellow WR Devonta Smith will be fascinating players for draft rankers.  I think it would be easy to subconsciously lower a player like Ruggs in your rankings because it feels odd to highly rank two players of the same position from the same team, but if Ruggs checks the metaphorical boxes why should we discount him just because of who else is on his team (a la Noah Fant and TJ Hockenson in the 2019 class).

Albert Okwuegbunam, TE, Missouri: Okwuegbunam was the first prospect I studied this offseason because I remembered his dominant eleven touchdown redshirt freshman year (on just 29 receptions).  His scoring rate and yards per catch dropped in 2018 but he was more involved in the offense overall, grabbing 43 balls.  Okwuegbunam is an excellent receiver who uses his hands and fingertips to secure the catch and utilizes good body control to finish.  I felt he lacked the suddenness and explosion in his blocks but I was surprised by how often he lined up as an inline blocker, so there may be room for improvement.  The biggest concern with Okwuegbunam may be his availability — he missed three games last year with a shoulder injury and this offseason he’s been dealing with a knee and “a number of things.”  If healthy, Okwuegbunam is likely to be a Top 10 tight end in the class.

Jared Pinkney, TE, Vanderbilt: Of the three Commodores, Jared Pinkney, probably has the highest draft stock right now.  At 6040/260, Pinkney has the size of a traditional blocking tight end but he put up the production of a move tight end (50-774-7 last year).  Draftscout.com has Pinkney as their top senior tight end and the fifth overall behind a few underclassmen.  They project Pinkney as having 4.67 speed.  No other tight end in the last four classes has weighed 260+ and run under a 2.70.  I only watched a few clips of Pinkney but I am encouraged by what I saw, especially when paired with his size/speed/production profile.

 

Notes: Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height.  When studying a player I rely on game film “cuts” which are most frequently found on Youtube. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels.  Keep in mind these highlight reels are the best plays of that player. When I have the option, I will choose to watch a game versus the better defense. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching my articles I use a number of valuable resources. I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com, washingtonpost.com
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2020 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com, nfl.com
  • NFL rosters, depth charts and contract info: ourlads.com, spotrac.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft, Cover 3 College Football
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com
  • Odds & Gambling Stats: vegasinsider.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a certified park and recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

The Watch List 2021: Early WR Tiers

Throughout the offseason I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past years I’ve done […]

The Watch List 2021: Early RB Tiers

Throughout the offseason I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past years I’ve done […]

The Watch List 2021: Championship Game Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]

The Watch List 2021: Early TE Tiers

Throughout the offseason I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past years I’ve done […]

The Watch List 2021: Week 13 Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]

The Watch List 2021: Early QB Tiers

Throughout the rest of the season I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past […]

The Watch List 2021: Week 11 Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]

The Watch List 2021: Week 10 Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]

The Watch List: 2019 ACC Season Preview

Reply

By Bob Cowper

Updated: August 18th 2019

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout the Spring and Summer as The Watch List will preview the top prospects and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your valuable draft capital.

Storylines to Watch

Heisman Contender: Trevor Lawrence, QB, Clemson. At just nineteen years old, Trevor Lawrence is the best quarterback in college football.  He has a big arm and elite 6060/215 size.  Given his frame, he is also surprisingly mobile.  Lawrence excels in clutch situations, illustrated by his 6:0 TD:INT ratio in Clemson’s three postseason games last year. I don’t believe it’s hyperbole to say that he’s one of the best twenty quarterbacks in America today; if NFL teams had the chance, many would replace their current starter with Lawrence two years before he’s even draft eligible.  Barring a major injury to him or a key Tiger teammate, I expect Lawrence to lead Clemson to another College Football Playoff appearance and pace the Heisman race along the way.

Underclassman to Watch: Justyn Ross, WR, Clemson. The most promising target for Lawrence is fellow sophomore Justyn Ross.  Ross earned national recognition after a spectacular showing in the college football playoff, including one truly unbelievable catch against Alabama.  In those two games against Notre Dame and Alabama, Ross combined for 12-301-3, about a third of his season totals.  He’s the conference’s leading returning receiver from last year and is likely to lead the line again.  He has a huge catch radius, sticky hands and looks like a punt returner with the ball in his hands.  If he and Lawrence progress together as we expect, we could be looking at Ross joining Lawrence as a Top 5 prospect in two years.

Newcomer of the Year: Sam Howell, QB, North Carolina. New Tar Heels head coach Mack Brown and new offensive coordinator Phil Longo are moving the team to an air raid offense this season.  They might have just the pilot in true freshman Sam Howell.  Howell, the state’s all-time leader in total yardage, flipped from Florida State to UNC on signing day.  Phil Steele ranked him as the 8th best quarterback in the class while 247Sports had him as the 3rd best dual-threat quarterback.  I watched some highlights and he really is a great rusher, the high school competition couldn’t handle his speed or finesse moves.  It also looks like he can sky the ball – one his his throws went sixty yards on the fly and was delivered inch-perfect.  If Howell can win the job and battle through the early growing pains, North Carolina will return to bowl eligibility.

Coaching Carousel: Manny Diaz, the new head coach of the Miami Hurricanes, operated his own coaching carousel this offseason.  In December, Diaz accepted the head gig at Temple.  It was a positive step in Diaz’s career progression, going from Miami’s defensive coordinator to Temple’s head coach.  However, just a few days later, Miami head coach Mark Richt retired.  Diaz jumped at the chance to return to lead the staff he had been a part of for the previous three seasons.  Diaz has an interesting back story that was captured on a recent episode of Real Sports on HBO (Diaz’s dad was the mayor of Miami from 2001-2009).  I’m torn on how I feel about Diaz and what happened this Winter.  On one hand, I couldn’t envision myself bailing on a job just eighteen days after accepting it; on the other hand, it’s hard to fault somebody for taking their dream job.

Player to Watch

Travis Etienne, RB, Clemson

Travis Etienne may hold the record for the player I have written about the most in my The Watch List series.  My first mention came back in September of 2017 when Etienne was just a freshman on his way to a 766-13 rookie season.  It’s always interesting to see how my initial assumptions about a player hold up and in Etienne’s case my notes from two years ago mirror my notes from two months ago.  Back in 2017, I described Etienne as “the hammer to close out Clemson’s wins” and that he is “undeniably fast and explosive.”  My recent film notes said that he “was not afraid to lower his shoulder and run up the gut” and in my first 2020 mock draft I noted that he “has the speed to outrun just about any defender to the boundary.”

Before I share some plays that showcase Etienne’s speed and surprising power, I wanted to take a closer look at his stats.  In 2017, Etienne averaged an impressive 7.2 yards per carry, which led the ACC.  He bested the conference again last season but improved his number to 8.1 (good enough for third in the FBS).  With averages like that, you would expect Etienne to be a big play threat so I wanted to compare him to the other four backs who are currently in my Top 5.  I also wanted to see if his chunk plays resulted in a higher scoring rate.

  • Travis Etienne
    • Runs over 10 yards: 44
    • Runs over 20 yards: 23
    • Scores every 8.4 touches (!!)
  • Jonathan Taylor
    • Runs over 10 yards: 61 (!!)
    • Runs over 20 yards: 16
    • Scores every 21.4 touches
  • D’Andre Swift
    • Runs over 10 yards: 32
    • Runs over 20 yards: 11
    • Scores every 17.2 touches
  • Trey Sermon
    • Runs over 10 yards: 27
    • Runs over 20 yards: 9
    • Scores every 15.7 touches
  • JK Dobbins
    • Runs over 10 yards: 24
    • Runs over 20 yards: 4
    • Scores every 23.6 touches

After reviewing the stats, I think it’s safe to say that Etienne is the best home run threat in the class.  He breaks big plays more often than the other top backs and more frequently converts them into points.

It’s easy to find highlights of Etienne illustrating my points above about his breakaway ability.  I picked this highlight from Wake Forest because when you watch it on YouTube you can pause it and see just how much faster he is than the fastest defenders.  At one point near the end of the run, when Etienne is crossing the ten yard line, he has a thirteen yard cushion.  That’s crazy for a play that started with him nearly bottled up behind the line of scrimmage.  Before Etienne hits the after burners, he shows his patience and his willingness to follow his lead blocker through a hole.  Once he gets a glimmer of open field, he’s gone.  His track-inspired celebration at the goal line is a reminder that he knows just how fast he is too (he reportedly once ran a hand-timed 4.24 40 yard dash).

Whenever I watch Etienne, I am always pleasantly surprised with the power that he runs with.  He has perfect size at 5100/200 which gives him a low enough center of gravity to stay upright through contact but also to churn forward for valuable yardage.  In this goal line snap, he receives the shovel pass and immediately runs into trouble.  He gets wrapped up at the two yard line, manages to squirm free, and lunges for the end zone.

When you watch the two above highlights it can be hard to square the fact that they are in fact the same prospect.  That’s what I love about Etienne, he seems to be the best of both worlds.  It’s not all rainbows and butterflies, though because there are a few areas where Etienne can improve.  If he wants to be considered a true three-down back in the NFL, Etienne needs to show us that he can be a productive receiver in 2019.  With a career receiving line of just 17-135-2, he’s merely been a dump off option (keep in mind, one of those receiving touchdowns was the shovel pass seen above).  As a pass blocker, I believe Etienne understands his assignments but lacks the strength to hold his blocks for very long.

I expect him to take another step forward this season and show us that he is a complete running back.  When he does, Etienne will challenge for the RB1 spot.

Honorable Mentions

Cam Akers, RB, Florida State: Akers joined the ‘Noles with a ton of hype as an incoming freshman, however much of that potential has been unrealized. Whether Akers has been the victim of, or part of the cause of, Florida State’s disappointments is the question. There’s no denying that their offensive line has been bad but star players sometimes transcend. Akers has shown flashes while compiling nearly 2,000 yards from scrimmage, but he was uneven in the two games I watched. He did not pop off the screen like I expected him to. My preconceived notion of Akers was that of a scat back but he may actually be better between the tackles. As such, I was surprised to see Akers succeed in short yardage situations, he was regularly able to get leverage and fall forward to convert. He’s a good receiver so I’d like to see more of him in pass protection to better judge his viability as a versatile third down back. Akers has the ceiling to be a Top 5 back in this class but right now I have a number of other players I am more confident in.

AJ Dillon, RB, Boston College: I was critical of Dillon earlier this Summer and took some heat about it on Twitter, including from AJ himself. Dillon is the best power back in the class, however, I felt he was lacking in speed and elusiveness when I first studied him. Some readers rightfully pointed out that the tape I watched (Miami 2018) was after Dillon injured his ankle and fought to finish the season. I found a highlight reel from his pre-injury explosion against Wake Forest (33-185-1) and he definitely was more dynamic and quick. Bruce Feldman recently included Dillon on his annual “Freaks List” so I’m willing to admit that I owe Dillon a more in-depth study this season. One critique still stands: he needs to get more involved as a receiver. He ran a surprising number of routes in that Miami game and did get two receptions, however, those two represent a quarter of his career receptions. Regardless of how he progresses as a receiver, Dillon’s battering ram style will surely find a role in the NFL.

Tee Higgins, WR, Clemson: Higgins is an NFL-caliber X receiver who effectively uses his 6040/200 body in a number of ways. In my notes, I called him the “Curl and Comeback King” because of his ability to box out defenders. His length allows him to outjump defenders and win 50/50 balls. Higgins typically lines up on the line of scrimmage and to the boundary, so he is comfortable along the sideline. I was also impressed by his long speed which is above average for his size. Higgins may play second fiddle to Justyn Ross this season but a 60-1,000-8 season is well within his reach and would set the stage for him to declare early.

 

Notes: Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height.  When studying a player I rely on game film “cuts” which are most frequently found on Youtube. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels.  Keep in mind these highlight reels are the best plays of that player. When I have the option, I will choose to watch a game versus the better defense. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching my articles I use a number of valuable resources. I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com, washingtonpost.com
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2020 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com, nfl.com
  • NFL rosters, depth charts and contract info: ourlads.com, spotrac.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft, Cover 3 College Football
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com
  • Odds & Gambling Stats: vegasinsider.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a certified park and recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

The Watch List 2021: Early WR Tiers

Throughout the offseason I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past years I’ve done […]

The Watch List 2021: Early RB Tiers

Throughout the offseason I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past years I’ve done […]

The Watch List 2021: Championship Game Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]

The Watch List 2021: Early TE Tiers

Throughout the offseason I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past years I’ve done […]

The Watch List 2021: Week 13 Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]

The Watch List 2021: Early QB Tiers

Throughout the rest of the season I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past […]

The Watch List 2021: Week 11 Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]

The Watch List 2021: Week 10 Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]

Early 2019 RSO Contracts: WRs

Reply

By Bernard Faller

Updated: August 14th 2019

My annual look at early RSO auction values turns to the wide receiver group.  The series was designed to give the reader help in planning for upcoming auctions by looking at actual RSO auctions already finished.  The data comes from a variety of different types of leagues with varying scoring rules and starting requirements which can drastically alter player values so be cautious in expecting values to match your particular league.  The number of auctions for any particular player may also be limited this early in the RSO season.  The information does provide a useful starting point for examining how RSO owners value players at a certain position relative to one another and the length of contract they are willing to invest.

 

Average RSO Wide Receiver Contracts

Safety and Depth at the Top

From holdouts to health to usage to surrounding talent, the running back position presents question marks for many of the most costly RSO contracts in 2019.  The argument for putting your big RSO cap dollars in wide receivers relies on their relative safety.  Grabbing Hopkins, Adams, Beckham Jr., Thomas, Smith-Schuster, Evans, Jones, or Allen assures a dominant, high-volume receiver attached to efficient passing offenses.  Maybe just as impressive is the depth of top receivers available.  For example, T.Y. Hilton goes off the board at WR16 as the top receiver for Andrew Luck after finishing 2018 sixth in yards per game.    An RSO GM wanting a reliable high volume pass catcher should have no problem finding one in most leagues.

The top paid wide receivers are not completely devoid of risk, however.  Brown and Green are dealing with lower-leg injuries already with Brown also bizarrely threatening retirement based on his choice of helmet.  Amari Cooper remains one of the most volatile receivers in all of football attached to a low-volume pass offense which is difficult to stomach at his price.  The Minnesota tandem of Diggs and Thielen face their own questions going into 2019.  Diggs was among the most inefficient wide receivers of the heavily targeted players last season.  Thielen’s production fell off a cliff the second half of 2018.  Minnesota probably transitions to a more run-heavy approach potentially reducing volume to both.

Who Steps Up?

While there is a good amount of quality top-end targets, not every team’s target share is set and not every offense racks up big yardage.  Many young pass catchers have the chance to move up the ranks of receivers.  RSO GMs priced Corey Davis aggressively so far as WR17.  The former top-5 pick improved in his second season and appears locked in as the top target for Tennessee.  The problem for Davis is the limited upside in the Titans’ pass attack.  Tennessee ranked no better than 28th in pass attempts the last three seasons and is going with quarterback Mariota yet again in his 5th year.  The Titans also spent high draft capital on A.J. Brown and gave a big contract to Adam Humphries.  There is a lot of preseason buzz, both good and bad, about Dante Pettis in San Francisco on potentially a breakout offense.  The slight receiver must stay healthy and battle a host of other good receiving options at multiple positions for targets.

Joe Flacco’s ability to throw with velocity downfield represents a much better match for Courtland Sutton’s strengths in his second year over the weak-armed Case Keenum.  Flacco is still Flacco, one of the most inefficient quarterbacks in the NFL over the last few years, and Emmanuel Sanders looks ahead of schedule coming back from a late season Achilles tear.  New York will look for more consistency from Robby Anderson, to go along with the growth of 22 year old quarterback Sam Darnold, after displaying flashes in his young career.  The Jets made significant investments among the skill-position group with the additions of Bell at running back and Crowder at wide receiver.  The Arizona Cardinals project as a far more up-tempo passing offense in 2019 with new head coach Kliff Kingsbury and second year pro Christian Kirk seems to be a big part going forward.  As dynamic as the offense could be, we must consider the possibility that a first year head coach with a rookie quarterback leading a new offense might have trouble adjusting to the NFL.

Upside NFL WR2s and WR1s in Questionable Situations

The Bears employ a diverse offensive scheme adjusting significantly each week under Matt Nagy which makes predicting the target distribution questionable at best.  Allen Robinson is one more year away from his ACL tear and second round pick Anthony Miller looks for a second-year jump after playing with shoulder injuries for most of his rookie season.  Some people forget about Marvin Jones after his injury-marred 2018. Despite new Lions coach Matt Patricia attempts to set offensive football back thirty years in 2018, Jones ranked top-10 in air yards while on the field and might be closer to the 1B in Detroit than his RSO price suggests.

Aaron Rodgers’ second receiving option provides significant possible fantasy value.  Geronimo Allison could be that piece seeming fixed in the starting slot spot.  Marquez Valdez-Scantling appears locked in as the second outside wide receiver opposite Devante Adams and comes at a discount so far in comparison to Allison.  Panthers’ wide receiver Curtis Samuel has been the talk of training camp in Carolina routinely destroying attempted coverage by defensive backs.  Many analysts believe he is the better receiver opposite D.J. Moore.  The afore-mentioned Emmanuel Sanders instills excellent value on RSO rosters if he is indeed fully healthy.  It would be an extremely quick recovery from an Achilles injury.  Pittsburg is another team for which the second receiver might carry significant fantasy value.  RSO GMs are paying the most for James Washington early.  He faces lot of competition in former Colt/Jaguar Donte Moncrief who currently heads the depth chart while many consider rookie Diontae Johnson the best replacement.

Others Outside the Top-50

DeSean Jackson will put up some big games this season with Carson Wentz without the need for big target loads.  Move Tyrell Williams up your boards this based on the wild news surrounding Antonio Brown.  Somebody has to catch passes in Oakland.  Do not be surprised if Jamison Crowder leads the Jets in receptions.  We won’t see a high volume passing offense in Buffalo.  The speedy John Brown, however, best fits the relatively high-volume, high-target depth throws Josh Allen makes.

Bio:  Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

 

More Analysis by Bernard Faller

Evaluating Rushers into 2022

Evaluating running backs is a notoriously difficult task using many basic statistics as running back production relies extensively on many […]

Looking Forward: Expectations for the NFL Salary Cap

Covid issues created unique salary cap problems for the NFL following the 2020 season.  The NFL salary cap unexpectedly dropped […]

2022 RSO Writer’s League Rookie Draft

Rookie drafts for Reality Sports Online teams involve a number of considerations different than a normal dynasty league.  Selected rookies […]

2022 NFL Free Agency Look

This free agency group once looked liked a great one, particularly at wide receiver.  Franchise tags to some of the […]

Strength of Schedule Targets

With the fantasy regular season nearing the end in most RSO leagues, owners with competitive teams need to begin thinking […]

RSO Decision: Extensions

The decision of whether to extend a player or not is one of the crucial points for Reality Sports Online […]

2018 Rookie RSO Extension Candidates

The 2018 NFL rookie class plays the final year of four-year contracts in the NFL and most Reality Sports Online […]

RSO Roster Construction: Player Tier Variation

The question of optimal roster construction remains a mystery to many in RSO leagues.  How much should I allocate to […]

The Watch List: 2019 Pac-12 Season Preview

Reply

By Bob Cowper

Updated: August 9th 2019

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout the Spring and Summer as The Watch List will preview the top prospects and let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your valuable draft capital.

Storylines to Watch

Heisman Contender: Khalil Tate, QB, Arizona.  According to betting markets, Oregon’s Justin Herbert is the top Heisman hopeful in the conference and if I was looking for a safe bet, I would agree.  However, if you’re looking for a dark horse candidate (+6000) that could help you cash in, go for Tate.  In 2017, Tate earned the starting job mid-season and still managed to rush for 1,411 yards and 12 TDs to go with 1,591-14-9 as a passer.  His future looked bright heading into 2018 but an ankle injury and a coaching change conspired against him to limit his impact.  If anybody has 4,000 yard and 40 TD upside, it’s Tate.

Underclassman to Watch: Jermar Jefferson, RB, Oregon State.  As a true freshman last season, Jefferson showed his promise in the second game of the season, going off for 238-4 against Southern Utah.  He finished with 1,380-12 and added 25 receptions.  I watched two highlight reels and my first thought was that he looked like David Montgomery.  I don’t like giving comps, especially this early, but once I thought it, I couldn’t unsee it.  Jefferson has ideal size for a running back at 5110/211.  He’s an elusive runner, displaying dynamic cuts and effective spin moves, and runs with above average power.  Like Montgomery, he appears to lack top-end speed but that’s not his game so it doesn’t worry me.  Oregon State won’t get much national attention this season but don’t let that stop you from eyeing Jefferson.

Newcomer of the Year: Bru McCoy, WR, USC. McCoy had a topsy-turvy start to his collegiate career.  He first committed to USC before switching to Texas (in response to Kliff Kingsbury leaving) only to transfer back to USC (because he was homesick).  He was the consensus top receiver in the 2019 recruiting class and based on his Hudl highlights, it looks like he could play in the NFL tomorrow.  I’m excited to see him play, sadly it might not be until 2020 unless his immediate eligibility waiver is approved.  (Looking for a true freshman who might make a difference in 2019?  Phil Steele predicts that QB Jayden Daniels will win the Arizona State job.  Daniels was Steele’s sixth ranked quarterback in the class.  Per 247Sports, Daniels is the highest rated prospect the Sun Devils have landed since Vontaze Burfict in 2009.)

Coaching Carousel: With just one head coaching change in the Pac-12 this offseason (Mel Tucker taking over at Colorado), the coaching carousel focus has to be on USC.  The aforementioned Kliff Kingsbury was hired in early December to take over as the Trojans’ offensive coordinator, but jumped ship about a month later to take the Arizona Cardinals head coaching job.  Fans who weren’t sold on head coach Clay Helton must have been thinking, “if Kingsbury is good enough for the NFL, why didn’t we hire him as our head coach?”  Another former Texas Tech quarterback, Graham Harrell, was brought in to be the new-new offensive coordinator.  Double-digit win seasons in 2016 and 2017 haven’t earned Helton much job security because he’s often mentioned as a coach on the hot seat.  If Kingsbury starts strong in Arizona, the pressure will mount from the fan base who will want Helton fired so that a similarly-minded coordinator like Harrell can finally take over.  (When I researched articles to back-up my assertion about Helton’s job security, I was actually surprised just how prevalent Helton-on-the-hot-seat sentiment was.  These three articles all featured Helton either as their header image or atop their list.)

Players to Watch

Justin Herbert, QB, Oregon

Get ready to hear a lot about Justin Herbert as the 2019 season progresses. He was a top prospect in last year’s class before returning to school and is pegged by most, myself included, as a future NFL quarterback. Herbert doesn’t have the buzz of some of the other quarterbacks right now in college football (i.e. Tua Tagovailoa and Trevor Lawrence) but I think he shows enough traits, and has enough experience, for draftniks to feel comfortable with him at, or near, the top of their respective draft boards.

Let’s start off by looking at Herbert’s stats and game logs. Herbert took over the starting gig midway through his freshman season in 2016 and then was limited to just eight games in 2017 due to injury. He played a full slate of thirteen games in 2018. He has a career 63:18 TD:INT ratio and averages nearly 250 yards passing per game. His career completion percentage of 62.5% is just good enough but dipped last season. He’s a capable short yardage runner who has a career rushing line of 173-510-9. Strangely, if you remove Herbert’s games against subpar opponents (FCS and Group of Five [except Boise State]), some of his rate stats actually increase. His completion percentage increases to 64.4% and his interception rate decreases. His yardage and touchdown marks drop slightly but not significantly. I can’t say that I have seen Herbert play in many of these “big” games so I’m just looking at context-less numbers, but protecting the ball well against higher quality opponents is a good sign. Speaking of protecting the ball, I noticed that Herbert has only thrown five career interceptions in one possession games. With 367 attempts in those close moments, Herbert threw an interception just 1.3% of the time. (For comparison, Kyler Murray threw five interceptions on 225 attempts in those situations last season, for a 2.2% rate.)

Since Herbert was a top prospect for the 2019 NFL Draft, I had studied him prior to last season.  With an extra year of playing experience, I was interested to see how my initial observations stood up.  My high level takeaways then were: good speed and athleticism, throwing well on the run, average accuracy and arm strength, inconsistent footwork, positive field and situational awareness, and great pump and play fakes.  Add in elite size at 6060/237 and you can see why I had him atop my rankings.

I’m pleased to share that I was much more impressed with Herbert’s arm strength and accuracy when I watched his 2018 film against Stanford and Arizona State.  His ball placement, especially against Stanford, was impeccable.  There were numerous plays where he led his receiver away from coverage and put the ball in a safe spot away from the defender.  I don’t think his arm strength is his best attribute but it’s above average, at worst.  He’s able to throw short yardage fastballs and has ample power to drive the ball across or down the field.  This play against Stanford was a beautiful illustration of his combination of “arm talent.”  The Cardinal drop into a zone defense so his receiver settles into the void.  Herbert throws the pass with enough touch and enough mustard to get it over the first defender but have it hit the receiver before the converging safety.

In my 2018 study, Herbert’s athleticism factored in frequently.  He’s quick getting out of the pocket, has enough burst for short yardage, and can still throw with accuracy while on the move.  I’m glad I watched the Stanford game because that gameplan featured Herbert as a weapon on the zone read.  He rushed for a few key first downs, including one late in the game that totally fooled the defense (but not the commentators).  I planned on sharing one of those designed runs but instead chose a scramble so I could also touch on Herbert’s pocket presence.  Frankly, he needs to learn to feel the rush better than he did in the two games I watched because he was sacked too many times.  When he does scramble from the pocket he can be dangerous, as seen on this play.  He runs with pace, makes a corner miss and stays in bound long enough for a big gain.

It’s difficult to quantify, but I keep leaving Herbert’s study with the impression that he is composed and situationally aware.  Much of the Oregon offense is predicated on quick passes or zone read running, however when given the chance, Herbert is able to read the field and create extemporaneously.  My favorite of the plays I saw of Herbert was a key play late in the Stanford game where he showed off this composure and experience.  The Ducks were up by three and going for it on 4th and 1 to hopefully seal the game (spoiler alert: the defense let Stanford back in it and the game ultimately went to OT).  The play is busted from the start: either Herbert or the running back mess up the play fake as Herbert starts to roll to his right.  He doesn’t panic and instead waits for his wide receiver, Dillon Mitchell, to uncover.  Mitchell realizes his quarterback is in trouble so he takes a subtle step away from the defense and squares his shoulders to give Herbert a target.  Herbert, running out of field on his half-field read, delivers the ball across his body and Mitchell does the rest.  (The Mitchell touchdown was ultimately called back but Oregon converted on 1st and Goal to take a ten point lead.  In the end, they lost the game but that was more on the defense and a late fumble by a running back than it was on Herbert.  This key play was likely the peak of their win-probability graph for the game).

Justin Herbert ended 2018 as my QB1 for the 2019 NFL Draft class and starts the season as my QB1 again.  Herbert showed me how much he could progress in a season, so I think his decision to return to Oregon for his senior season was a positive one.  He’ll be pushed by Alabama’s Tua Tagovailoa, but I think Herbert’s NFL-worthy combination of size, arm and athleticism will earn him the first overall pick next April.

 

Laviska Shenault, WR, Colorado

Laviska Shenault is a versatile player who filled a number of roles for the Buffaloes in 2018.  He’s deployed as a wide receiver, h-back and wildcat quarterback and often finds success in each role.  In nine games as a sophomore (he missed three games midseason with a foot injury), Shenault had a receiving line of 86-1,011-6 and a rushing line of 17-115-5.  If he played a full twelve games, that production would extrapolate to 1,501 scrimmage yards, which would have put him near the top of the Pac-12 in overall production.

As a receiver, Shenault shines as a hands-catcher with strong hands that he places well.  After the catch, he is a powerful runner in close quarters and near impossible to tackle.  He also has the acceleration to break away in the open field.  In my opinion, this is what gives him such a high ceiling as a prospect: it’s rare to have such a mix of power and explosion.  This play exemplifies all three points: Shenault catches the ball with his hands, avoids the first tackler, stiff arms the second and then sprints to the end zone.

In addition to using his talents as a receiver, Shenault is a dangerous red zone weapon as a runner.  Four of his five rushing scores came from inside the red zone, and on just seven attempts (RB Travon McMillian also had four but on twenty attempts).  Shenault’s thick lower body and play strength let him succeed in these high-leverage situations near the goal line.  In the below example, Shenault lines up as the wildcat quarterback on 4th and 1 from the 3 yard line.  He’s surely stopped before the line to gain but he keeps his legs churning and keeps moving forward.  He ultimately drags the pile close enough to the end zone so he can reach across for the score.  Wide receivers aren’t supposed to be able to do that!

Shenault is a jack-of-all-trades prospect whose versatility will appeal to NFL teams.  I’m hopeful that the Buffs manage his touches so he can stay healthy for a full season.  It feels like Shenault has Top 50 upside so expect him to be in the first round conversation come 2020.

 

Honorable Mentions

Eno Benjamin, RB, Arizona State: With the ball in his hands, Benjamin is a dynamic whirling dervish. He’s elusive in the open field by utilizing myriad cuts, jukes and spins. He’s not a power back but does have enough pop to win the extra yard in a one-on-one situation. His blocking definitely needs to improve, as does his decisiveness. It’s great that his feet never stop moving, but in some circumstances, like near the goal line, that can be a liability. Benjamin is a high-volume back who could top his 335 touches from last season (300 rushing attempts, 35 receptions). The Sun Devils offense is bound to look different in 2019 with the departures of QB Manny Wilkins and WR N’Keal Harry so I’m anxious to see what that means for Benjamin. If he approaches 2,000 scrimmage yards again, Benjamin will be a lock to declare for the NFL Draft.

Aaron Fuller, WR, Washington: One of my favorite Twitter follows, Brad Kelly, recently tweeted that he thought Fuller was going to be a Top 10 receiver in the 2020 class.  Even though I didn’t know much about Fuller I thought I should learn more and include him in this preview, Brad being the receiver guru and all.  Fuller led the Huskies in receiving last season with a 58-874-4 line.  His highlights feature a few spectacular one-handed catches that would be enough to get attention on their own.  What also caught my eye was how well Fuller tracks the ball.  His reels are littered with high-arcing deep balls which he’s able to bring in despite defensive distractions.  Fuller is quick and can be a handful after the catch: he reportedly ran a 4.36 coming out of high school and ran a 4.45 at last year’s Huskies Combine event.  If he continues to progress, I can see Fuller as a starting NFL slot receiver.

Hunter Bryant, TE, Washington: Bryant is a ballyhooed tight end prospect who garnered attention as a true freshman for the Huskies. He’s listed at 6020/241, short for a tight end, and looks lighter to my eye. I watched some of his 2018 Ohio State tape and some highlights to get a feel for both his ability as a receiver and as a blocker. He’s been gifted with great hands and is a bear to tackle. However, he’s lacking as a blocker; he was frequently knocked back at the point of contact by Buckeye DBs. Injuries have impacted Bryant’s first two seasons, perhaps a combination of his size and playing style, limiting him to just fourteen games and 33 receptions. I know he will be a popular name this draft season but for a number of reasons I’m not ready to buy in yet.

Colby Parkinson, TE, Stanford: Like Bryant, Parkinson is a similarly unknown commodity at the tight end position. In Stanford’s offense last season, Parkinson played more of a big-receiver role than an in-line role, at least in the mid-season film I checked against Washington. When I say “big-receiver,” I mean it: Parkinson checks in at 6070/240 with room to add more heft. His size makes him a redzone threat and a difficult assignment for smaller corners. I didn’t see many plays where Parkinson was tasked with blocking but from the few times I did see him blocking downfield, I believe he’ll at least be a functional in-line blocker. If his four touchdown game against Oregon State is any indication, we could be looking at a defensive-gameplan-out-the-window type of player.

 

Notes: Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height.  When studying a player I rely on game film “cuts” which are most frequently found on Youtube. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels.  Keep in mind these highlight reels are the best plays of that player. When I have the option, I will choose to watch a game versus the better defense. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching my articles I use a number of valuable resources. I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com, washingtonpost.com
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2020 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com, nfl.com
  • NFL rosters, depth charts and contract info: ourlads.com, spotrac.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft, Cover 3 College Football
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com
  • Odds & Gambling Stats: vegasinsider.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a certified park and recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

The Watch List 2021: Early WR Tiers

Throughout the offseason I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past years I’ve done […]

The Watch List 2021: Early RB Tiers

Throughout the offseason I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past years I’ve done […]

The Watch List 2021: Championship Game Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]

The Watch List 2021: Early TE Tiers

Throughout the offseason I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past years I’ve done […]

The Watch List 2021: Week 13 Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]

The Watch List 2021: Early QB Tiers

Throughout the rest of the season I will be compiling early positional tiers for the 2021 NFL Draft. In past […]

The Watch List 2021: Week 11 Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]

The Watch List 2021: Week 10 Preview

Welcome to The Watch List for the 2021 NFL Draft season, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players from […]