Monthly Archives: September 2019

RSO Staff Picks: Week 4

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By Stephen Wendell

Updated: September 29th 2019

Week 3 Results & Overall Standings

1.  English – 10-6-0 // 31-16-1

2. Papson – 12-4-0 //30-17-1

3. Wendell – 9-7-0 // 28-19-1

Excellent week by Pappy to pull within one game of English through three weeks. Wendell, per usual, brings up the rear but is only three games behind and was the only person to pick his beloved Eagles on the road to beat the Packers on Thursday (so he starts Sunday one game up on the week). Lots of interesting Week 4 matchups where we will see how good some of these lesser thought of teams are after their respective hot starts (3-0 Bills host the 3-0 Patriots for control of the AFC East at the quarter poll; the 2-0-1 Lions host the seemingly unbeatable Chiefs; AND Teddy Bridgewater gets a chance to show the world on SNF that last week was not a fluke and he can be the “bridge” the Saints need while Brees is out). Our picks for the week are below. Good luck in all your matchups!

NFL Game Picks

Game

Wendell

Papson

English

PHI @ GB

TEN @ ATL

NE @ BUF

KC @ DET

OAK @ IND

LAC @ MIA

WAS @ NYG

CLV @ BAL

CAR @ HOU

TB @ LAR

SEA @ ARI

MIN @ CHI

JAX @ DEN

NO @ DAL

CIN @ PIT

 

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Week 4 Street FA Report

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By Nick Andrews

Updated: September 29th 2019

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 50% of RSO league that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer 1 player that is owned in <10% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

Taylor Gabriel, WR – CHI (Owned 44%)

Week 3: 6 Rec/75 yards, 3 TDs

Taylor Gabriel had himself a game on Monday night scoring three touchdowns in the first half! Unfortunately, he left the game early with a concussion that he is still dealing with at the mid-week point. It is unclear if he will be available for an encore against the Vikings this Sunday. Regardless, only Allen Robinson (27 targets), Tarik Cohen (19), and Gabriel (14) are being featured in the Bears’ offense through three weeks, with Gabriel being the only one with a touchdown reception thus far.  When he is back on the playing field he is at least rosterable in all but the shallowest of leagues and can be a flex option in deep starting lineups.

Suggested Bid: $2,000,000

QB Add

Gardner Minshew, QB – JAX (Owned 50%)

Week 3: 20 for 30, 204 Pass yards, 2 TDs, 4 Car/18 yards

Looking back at last year’s Week 3 Street Free Agent Report it was the chest protruding, big baller swagger of Ryan Fitzpatrick that was being recommended as a must-add quarterback. Fast forward to this year and history is repeating itself with the latest cult hero, rookie Gardner Minshew, who is the quarterback to own. After taking over for Nick Foles in Week 1, Minshew has looked at worst serviceable to fantasy owners that have been ravaged by early-season injuries. He is consistently putting up 17 points per game, good enough for 17th at his position. It will be interesting to see if the Jaguars return to Nick Foles when he becomes healthy again later in the season based on the success of Minshew as well as the fan base loving every minute he’s in the spotlight. With Reality Sports Online “resign” feature Minshew is also an interesting character to see where his future value hits after next week. Especially in Superflex leagues he could be a sneaky resign candidate for many teams who usually stream the position.

Suggested Bid: $2,000,000

RB Add

Jeff Wilson Jr, RB – SF (Owned 36%)

Week 3: 8 Car/18 yards, 2 TDs

I recommended Raheem Mostert two weeks ago as a 49er running back to add and I’m going back again for another, Jeff Wilson Jr. Wilson has four touchdowns in the last two games on only 18 carries putting him in a Mike Tolbert, Matt Asiata-like touchdown vulture role. We don’t yet know where Wilson will fit once Tevin Coleman returns after the team’s bye this week but he’s at least worth a stash for now. There are suggestions that he may be waived to try and put on the team’s practice squad but it is likely another team would sign him before he ever got there. This might actually be the best-case scenario for those who invest in Wilson as a team would likely have a role for him if they were to sign him. For now we can just monitor what his situation is and adjust our expectations accordingly.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

WR Add

Paul Richardson, WR – WAS (Owned 44%)

Week 3: 8 Rec/83 yards, 1 TD

“Scary” Terry McLaurin (F1) has been the darling of the fantasy community and is looking like the most valuable piece of this woeful Washington offense for 2019 and beyond. If the team struggles as much as it did on Monday night though, another name to watch is Paul Richardson. The sixth-year receiver has been an afterthought for most of his Washington career after being a deep sleeper candidate last year but the team is likely to be down in many more games this season so the passing offense will be featured plenty. The team has featured three (3) receivers on 56 percent of their plays through three weeks so regardless of whether it’s Richardson or Trey Quinn sharing the WR2 role both should continue to see their share of targets behind Terry McLaurin and scatback Chris Thompson.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

TE Add

Ben Watson, TE – NE (Owned 13%)

Week 3: N/A

Ben Watson is suspended for another week before he can make his Patriots return but that shouldn’t stop those with tight end problems from adding him this week. The Patriots have a long history of featuring their tight ends and Tom Brady also loves to feature players that he has a rapport with; Watson was with the Patriots from 2004-09. He will never replace Rob Gronkowski’s production both as a pass-catcher or a blocker but similar to Jason Witten with the Cowboys and Greg Olsen with the Panthers there is something about having a veteran tight end who knows how to read defenses and get open for their quarterback. Of course, neither of those teams have a Swiss army knife quite like Julian Edelman but we have seen both Edelman and a New England tight end be fantasy relevant at the same time. It is pure speculation at this point to assume any fantasy relevancy for Watson but he could be the next hot waiver add in week six if he has a big game upon returning. Get ahead of the curve now and stash him.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Sleeper Add (<10%)

Auden Tate, WR – CIN (Owned 5%)

Week 3: 6 Rec/88 yards

A surprising change last week to the Bengals’ offense was Auden Tate being on the field for 89 percent of the plays in week 3 against the Buffalo. This came at the apparent benching of Damion Willis who was said to be the replacement outside receiver during A.J. Green’s absence coming out of preseason. The Bengals have run three-receiver sets on 68 percent (5th most) which is likely a contributor to his high usage rate which is also a good indicator of things moving forward in the season.  We don’t yet know when Green will be returning or how effective he will be when he does so Tate could continue to see an uptick in snaps played. We do know that Tate has the ability at 6’5” to be a better red zone and jump-ball threat than either Tyler Boyd (6’1”) or John Ross (5’11”). If he can continue to see the field at the rate he saw last week and the Bengals can get more scoring opportunities Tate may become a sleeper each week with touchdown upside.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

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The Watch List: 2019 Week 5 Preview

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By Bob Cowper

Updated: September 28th 2019

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players and games from college football that deserve your attention.  To view more of my observations, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout the season as The Watch List will continue to let you know who is fantasy relevant and worth your valuable draft capital.

Storylines to Watch

UCF’s Cinderella Run Ends: The Golden Knights fairy tale has come to a close after a close loss to the Pittsburgh Panthers last Saturday.  The last time UCF lost a regular season game was all the way back in 2016 when Scott Frost was in his first season as head coach in Orlando.  Current coach Josh Heupel may have been at the reigns when the chariot transformed back into a pumpkin, but Heupel has found his prince in quarterback Dillon Gabriel.  Gabriel, a true freshman from Hawaii, has shined in his first month.  During the Pitt matchup, the broadcasters repeatedly mentioned how injured quarterback McKenzie Milton, also from Hawaii, has played a large role in Gabriel’s ascent from third-string to starter.  Maybe the Golden Knights are shaping up to be more “made for TV movie” than “fairy tale” this season.

USC’s Quarterback Injuries Continue: Speaking of third-string quarterbacks, against all odds the Trojans remain #21 in the new AP Top 25 poll.  After losing sophomore starter JT Daniels in the opener, USC lost freshman Kedon Slovis to a concussion against #10 Utah.  Junior Matt Fink filled in admirably, throwing for 350 yards and 3 TDs while completing 70% of his passes.  Having two steady signal callers with big game experience might be key for Clay Helton down the stretch.  I’m interested to see who he names as the starter when both Slovis and Fink are healthy, or if he plays both.  USC has a tough road ahead with matchups on the road against #17 Washington and #10 Notre Dame (luckily they get a week off in between).  If they can split those two contests, I think USC would have to be the favorite to come out of the Pac-12 South.

Games to Watch

#21 USC at #17 Washington, 3:30pm Saturday on FOX: This game is a must for me because it’s a rare afternoon kickoff for these two PAC-12 powerhouses.  Above I outlined the quarterback carousel that USC has been riding but there’s no such worry at Washington because Jacob Eason has been on fire to start the season.  He’s already topped 1,000 passing yards and has ten scores to just two interceptions.  WR Aaron Fuller is leading the team with 21 receptions and might also lead the nation in highlight reel catches.  The Trojans have their own 2019 NFL Draft hopefuls in WRs Michael Pittman Jr. (31-437-3) and Tyler Vaughns (27-370-2).  Pittman had an incredible 10-232-1 game against Utah and was easily the favorite target of fill-in Matt Fink — read more about Pittman below.  The last three battles between these two have been low scoring but I’ll be taking the over and hoping for an offensive explosion.  My prediction: USC 39, Washington 35

Colorado State at Utah State, 7:30pm Saturday on CBSSN: I’m not loving the primetime slate this week so I might instead give some love to the Mountain West on Saturday night.  In case you haven’t gotten the pun yet: the main draw in this matchup will be Aggies’ QB Jordan Love.  Love started the year strong with a 416-3-3 outing in a close loss to Wake Forest, however he hasn’t put up the stats in the last two victories against Stony Brook and SDSU.  The game sets up to be strength versus strength because Colorado State held Love to just 169-1-0 last season and their passing defense is even better this year (allowing less than 200 passing yards per game).  I will be watching to see if Love can overcome.  My prediction: Utah State 19, Colorado State 13

Players to Watch

Michael Pittman, WR, USC

Michael Pittman’s stock is on the rise and draft fans like you and I need to start investing our attention. As I mentioned above, Pittman had a huge game against #10 Utah, finishing with 10 catches for 232 yards and 1 TD. Last Saturday was far from an aberration, in fact it was just the latest “big game” for the senior. Dating back to the beginning of October 2018, Pittman has amassed 61 receptions, 986 yards and 8 TDs. Over a nine game stretch, he’s nearly averaging 7-110-1. His production is even more impressive when you consider that Pittman continues to battle for targets with two other future NFL receivers (Tyler Vaughns and Amon-Ra St. Brown).

In addition to his outstanding output, Pittman has the size and pedigree that NFL teams covet. He’s listed at 6040/220 and projected to run in the 4.52 range by DraftScout.com (think: Kenny Golladay). His father played in the NFL for eleven years and had a very productive career as a pass catching running back.

“All that’s great,” you say, “but what about his tape?” So far there isn’t much film out there but we do have one tape from last year (UCLA) and highlights from this season. I perused both so I could get a feel for Pittman’s game beyond his stats and size. As you’d expect, Pittman’s primary role is as an outside possession receiver who can excel along the sideline. His ability to catch the ball with his hands at the high point also allows him to win jump balls down the field. He does not have breakaway speed but is functionally fast. In my limited review, I did not notice much success as a blocker but that’s secondary at this point. Pittman does show some versatility in his deployment — he occasionally lines up from the slot or in motion — so I am hopeful that we’ll see positive route running skills when we study him further this offseason.

I’ll leave you with this play that Pittman pulled off against Utah. He gets inside leverage against the corner and jets upfield. The ball is placed between the two converging defenders and Pittman is able to slow himself, jump and hands-catch the ball. He has the balance to keep his feet as he comes down and is able to fend off the tackle all the way to the end zone. The score put USC up by two scores and proved to be a pivotal moment in the upset.

 

LeVante Bellamy, RB, Western Michigan

I first wrote about LeVante Bellamy back in July as part of my MAC season preview. In that writing, I said that Bellamy was “a burner…and it shows on his highlight reels.” At the time, I was basing my speed assumptions on a report that he ran a 4.32 laser time in 2018. Now the school is reporting that he ran a 4.28 laser time this offseason! If that speed holds true throughout the draft process, Bellamy will be one of the fastest prospects we’ve seen in years.

Bellamy’s 165-2 outburst against Syracuse last week wasn’t the first time he showed up against the Power 5 (in which I include BYU). Since he returned from a 2016 ACL injury, he has played seven games against higher echelon foes. In those games, Bellamy averages 99.9 yards from scrimmage and scored four times (ironically all against Syracuse).

As a runner, Bellamy pairs his angle-busting speed with above average play strength. He’s nimble enough to tiptoe along the sideline to gain an extra yard or two. He uses his compact frame (5090/190) to his advantage by squeezing through tight spaces. In the below play, you can see Bellamy making the most of his size and speed as she crashes through the line, angles towards the sideline and then sprints for the goal line.

In addition to being the primary ball carrier, Bellamy is a good outlet receiver and also has experience as a kick returner. I hope to see more of him in these situations as it is more likely to translate to an NFL role for a player of his skill set.

Two cliches come to mind as I close my thoughts on Bellamy.  First: you can’t teach speed.  Second: the best ability is availability.  Unfortunately he missed significant time in 2016 and 2017 and got banged up last week too. I hope he can stay healthy because Bellamy’s speed makes him a late rounder with sleeper potential.

 

Notes: Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths.  So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113.  This is helpful when trying to sort players by height.  When studying a player I rely on game film “cuts” which are most frequently found on Youtube. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels.  Keep in mind these highlight reels are the best plays of that player. When I have the option, I will choose to watch a game versus the better defense. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players.  When researching my articles I use a number of valuable resources. I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com, washingtonpost.com
  • Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
  • Film: 2020 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com, nfl.com
  • NFL rosters, depth charts and contract info: ourlads.com, spotrac.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft, Cover 3 College Football
  • Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com
  • Odds & Gambling Stats: vegasinsider.com

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association.  Robert works as a certified park and recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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Week 3 Street FA Report

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By Nick Andrews

Updated: September 21st 2019

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 50% of RSO league that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer 1 player that is owned in <10% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

Cole Beasley, WR – BUF (Owned 38.5%)

Week 2: 4 Rec/83 yards

Cole Beasley has been a fantasy sleeper the last two weeks with 9 and 12 points respectively. He won’t win you many weeks but he has a higher floor than most receivers with <50% ownership. Beasley is a player that you can add to your roster now and use in a pinch for bad matchups for your regular rotation of players and during bye weeks. For leagues that feature a high number of WR starting requirements, it is often more beneficial to avoid putting up a doughnut then trying to hit the sleeper home run when you need a player to step in for only a week or two, especially if the rest of your lineup is full of blue-chip players. Be proactive and grab Beasley now before the rest of your league starts putting together their midseason backup plans.

Suggested Bid: $2,000,000

RB Add

Ty Johnson, RB – DET (Owned 24%)

Week 2: 5 Car/30 yards, 2 Rec/6 yards

The surprising release of veteran C.J. Anderson means that 6th round rookie Ty Johnson moves up to #2 on the depth chart for the Detroit Lions. Johnson received a modest workload in week 2 but with the injury history of Kerryon Johnson, he is a speculative stash at this point for later in the season. If anything was to happen to Kerryon there wouldn’t be much in the way of backfield competition for Ty Johnson. If you have the bench space it would be better to pay the minimum now rather than have to try and outbid other owners later.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

WR Adds

David Moore, WR – SEA (Owned 34.5%)

Week 2: N/A

David Moore is ready to make his 2019 season debut after missing the first two games with injuries and it will be interesting to see how he fits within Seattle’s offense. He should be the second outside receiver opposite D.K. Metcalf. His upside is limited to being the third option (behind Metcalf and Tyler Lockett) in a run-first offense but that also means there will be minimal coverage to his side of the field when Russell Wilson does look his way. He should have his games of big plays or forgotten coverages this season so he is an ideal stash in deeper leagues in case of injuries to either receiver above him.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Devin Smith, WR – DAL (Owned 24%)

Week 2: 3 Rec/74 yards, 1 TD

Devin Smith rose from the dead for 16 PPR points last week after not seeing game action since 2016 with the Jets. He took over for an injured Michael Gallup who is on track to miss 2-4 weeks which means that more opportunities are at his feet. Dallas’ offense is strong enough that even as a third or fourth option Smith is still likely to have fantasy relevance until Gallup is fully healthy. If you are in a pinch as a Gallup owner for a temporary starter you likely will find Smith free on the wire.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

TE Add

Will Dissly, TE – SEA (Owned 48%)

Week 2: 5 Rec/50 yards, 2 TDs

Even after the initial waiver period cleared Will Dissly is still unowned in over half of leagues. Maybe it is because people are worried his two-touchdown performance of last week is unlikely to be duplicated but having any touchdown upside is reason enough to be adding Dissly. The Seahawks are a running team which means that Dissly will get his opportunities to be on the field, thus available for play-action receptions. Similar to David Moore, Dissly is unlikely to garner a lot of coverage from opposing defenses so why not take a shot. At the tight end position you are basically hoping for a touchdown or bust scenario anyway. Add him to your bench and start him when the Seahawks are playing weaker defenses.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Sleeper Add (<10%)

Damiere Byrd, WR – ARZ (8%)

Week 2: 6 Rec/45 yards

The Arizona Air Raid has been about as interesting as people expected it would be through the first two weeks of the season. The team is lapping the league in number of no-huddle plays and is featuring 4WR sets more than any other team. This is likely contributing to Damiere Byrd being a deep sleeper over the first two weeks with 10 receptions on 14 targets. He is still third on the team in targets behind Larry Fitzgerald (24) and Christian Kirk (20) but it is clear that Kliff Kingsbury is willing to air it out regardless of game script. We should expect similar numbers to continue for Byrd. If an injury to either Fitzgerald or Kirk were to happen Byrd would become an instant waiver wire must add so save your cap space now and pick him up.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

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RSO Staff Picks: Week 3

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By Stephen Wendell

Updated: September 19th 2019

Week 2 Results & Overall Standings

1.  English – 10-6-0 // 21-10-1

2. Wendell – 9-7-0 // 19-12-1

3. Papson – 7-9-0 //18-13-1 

English takes the week and the overall lead with Papson struggling and dropping to last. Some big time injuries with Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger going down leading to losses by the Saints and Steelers and showing how fragile a season can be in the NFL. Teddy Bridgewater and Mason Rudolph will look to fill the void and with Brees likely to come back after the Saints bye in Week 9, the Saints playoff hopes are still alive but at 0-2 in a division where Baltimore and Cleveland look good, Pittsburgh is likely not a playoff team in 2019. More storylines sure to develop in Week 3. Here are our picks starting with an AFC South battle in Jacksonville tonight:

NFL Game Picks

Game

Wendell

Papson

English

TEN @ JAX

CIN @ BUF

MIA @ DAL

DEN @ GB

ATL @ IND

BAL @ KC

OAK @ MIN

NYJ @ NE

DET @ PHI

CAR @ ARI

NYG @ TB

HOU @ LAC

PIT @ SF

NO @ SEA

LAR @ CLV

CHI @ WAS

 

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Week 3 Buys and Sells

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By Bernard Faller

Updated: September 18th 2019

The fantasy football world is full of buy/sell articles.  What are we actually looking at when those recommendations are made though?  First and foremost examine the fundamentals which dictate if fantasy stats are sustainable.  Is a quarterback’s efficiency corresponding to his touchdown rate?  Does a receiver collect enough targets to reliably post strong receiving totals?  Will a running back’s offense and usage consistently support fantasy output?  Another key consideration concerns changing situations.  When is a player expected back from injury or suspension?  Will another player possibly usurp usage from another?  While we can’t review every player, this and future articles during the season will give the reader a few potential buys and sells to get ready for future weeks. Rankings are based off four touchdown passing PPR leagues.

 

Quarterback

Buy: Kyler Murray, QB16

The Arizona offense is what was predicted.  Kyler Murray leads the NFL in passing attempts and is number four in passing yardage.  Despite the massive volume, Murray passed for only two touchdowns in his first two games.  Expect his touchdown rate to rise significantly as he gets more accustomed to what NFL defenses throw his way, particularly near the endzone.  Murray also only rushed 6 times for 17 yards so far.  Given his 4.4 forty speed, look for some large rushing totals in his future.  Look for some huge fantasy weeks in Murray’s future.

Sell: Case Keenum, QB5

This one applies more to superflex and deeper fantasy leagues.  There are arguments for keeping Keenum.  Washington should be playing from behind for much of the season and it is a quarterback-friendly system in which Kirk Cousins put up big fantasy totals.  Keenum also is unlikely to bring much in trade value.  One needs to try to trade off a placeholder, backup level type of quarterback any time he gets off to a hot start, however.  The fantasy output comes back to earth more often than not and, on a team that is 0-2, Keenum will be in danger of benching for first-round quarterback selection Haskins as the season goes along.  The schedule also tightens up moving forward starting with the Bears in week three.

 

Running Back

Buy: Sony Michel, RB42

Michel has been flat out awful so far.  He’s averaging just 2.8 yards per carry. He has not forced a single missed tackle through two games.  He has not registered a single reception so far.  So why do want this guy on your fantasy team?  Put simply, Michel is the lead back for New England.  The Patriots figure to be heavy favorites in many games this season, including their upcoming contests.  The next five games include the Jets twice, Buffalo, Washington, and the Giants.  Michel is already tied for 4th in rushing attempts this season.  He possesses immense touchdown upside on a weekly basis in this offense and he is bound to improve as a runner moving forward.

Sell: Derrick Henry, RB4

Henry, on the other hand, has been great so far racking up yardage and touchdowns.  His usage simulates Michel’s but on a far worse offense.  Henry remains a game script dependent RB in a committee situation with limited passing game usage.  Henry accumulated just three receptions so far which is in line with historical usage and most of his receiving yardage came on a defensive-bust screen play.  Tougher matchups approach which likely limit Henry’s touches.  Any running back with Henry’s usage is valuable so he is not a must sell but look to see if anyone in your league values him near his current production.

 

Wide Receiver

Buy: Christian Kirk, WR34

We can extend much of what was said about Murray to Kirk.  Kirk ranks tied for 11th in targets after two weeks but has not scored and caught only 50% of his targets.  His catch rate and touchdowns should only go up as Murray continues his growth as an NFL passer.  Kirk’s target share in Arizona’s high-volume passing offense probably will not change much this year.   He also ranks 8th in yards after the catch per reception.  More really good fantasy days should be in store for Kirk moving forward.

Sell: D.J. Chark, WR6

This has nothing to do with Chark’s play so far.  Hint: he’s been excellent.  Chark ranks as the WR6 despite being tied for 39th in targets.  He also owns the 12th highest catch rate in the NFL with a high average depth of target at over 14 yards.  Those stats figure to be unsustainable over the longer term.  Marquise Lee is back to practicing at full strength which likely reduces Chark’s target-share as the season wears on.  Combined with a rookie backup quarterback for the next couple of months, Chark’s fantasy output probably becomes more volatile on a weekly basis.  Check in on underperforming starters in more stable passing environments.

 

Tight End

Buy: George Kittle, TE14

Kittle got off to a relatively slow start this year as the TE14 compared to last season.  Do not worry.  He still commands good volume for a tight end with 13 targets so far and is one of the most talented tight ends in the NFL to go along with top-notch athleticism.  Penalties also removed two touchdowns from Kittle’s scorecard in week 1.  I will add a bit of caution in trading for Kittle.  You may be disappointed if you are buying Kittle at a value consistent with last year’s record-breaking performance.  Too many additional targets have been added for him to control the same proportion of targets and his crazy-high yards after catch numbers from 2018 were bound to come down.  On the other hand, if you are buying Kittle as a potential difference-making tight end with big consistent usage but not expecting record-breaking performance, enjoy.

Sell: Will Dissly, TE10

Dissly is an interesting story.  Most draft analysts considered the relatively unathletic player a blocking tight end prospect coming out of Washington.  He then exploded out of the gate.  People still remember his first NFL game last season posting 105 receiving yards on just 3 receptions.  He already scored four touchdowns in his first six NFL games while averaging a robust 15 yards per reception and is fresh off a two score game last week.  Is he really this dynamic receiver or this just a case of small sample size?  My money is on the latter.  Dissly averages just over two receptions per game during his short career.  Try to find a trade partner in need of consistent tight end help and convince them he is a reliable weekly starter.

Bio:  Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

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