The fantasy football world is full of buy/sell articles. What are we actually looking at when those recommendations are made though? First and foremost examine the fundamentals which dictate if fantasy stats are sustainable. Is a quarterback’s efficiency corresponding to his touchdown rate? Does a receiver collect enough targets to reliably post strong receiving totals? Will a running back’s offense and usage consistently support fantasy output? Another key consideration concerns changing situations. When is a player expected back from injury or suspension? Will another player possibly usurp usage from another? While we can’t review every player, this and future articles during the season will give the reader a few potential buys and sells to get ready for future weeks. Rankings are based off four touchdown passing PPR leagues.
Quarterback
Buy: Josh Allen, QB18
Allen might be the poster-child when looking for boom-bust streaming quarterback options. His highs have won fantasy weeks while showing a near zero point floor in his young career. Things have changed slightly in 2019. Allen is not running at the same prolific rate we saw to finish 2018, where he blew up with four games over 90 rushing yards, which made him a fantasy superstar to end last season. He remains a substantial threat on the ground, though, averaging over 30 rushing yards per game to go along with three rushing touchdowns this year. Allen remains a work-in-progress as a passer but has improved. His completion percentage jumped almost ten points this season by reducing the average depth-of-target on his throws while also seeing his passing attempts and yardage increase.
Allen has shown a high fantasy floor this year in all but the worst matchup against New England. Fortunately for the Bills and Allen, they do not face the Patriots until week 16. Buffalo gets one of the softest schedules of passing defenses in the league closing the year highlighted by matchups with Philadelphia, Washington, and Miami twice over the next five weeks. Allen will be an excellent streaming quarterback for much of 2019 going forward.
Sell: Lamar Jackson, QB2
The start for Jackson could not have gone any better for fantasy owners in 2019. He displayed upside as a passer in his first two juicy matchups against Miami and Arizona, throwing for seven touchdowns and almost 600 passing yards. Jackson also showcased his video-game like rushing talents with two games of at least 120 rushing yards while averaging a robust 77 yards on the ground. His rushing numbers alone would rank him as the RB23 in standard scoring leagues.
The second half of year presents some tougher opposition. Baltimore faces a brutal rest-of-season schedule including matchups against three of the top passing defenses: New England, San Francisco, and Buffalo. Jackson should provide a reasonable fantasy floor going forward even in difficult defensive matchups. There are not many defensive schemes or players capable of completely shutting down his rushing ability. We just might not see the incredible league-winning ceiling many times the rest of season. With his bye-week coming up, this might be the point to cash out on Jackson for an absolutely incredible haul if you have other quality quarterback options available.
Running Back
Buy: Le’Veon Bell, RB16
Circumstances could not have begun more poorly for Bell in New York with his big new contract. The Jets running game endured one of the worst opening schedules playing against top defenses with backup quarterbacks leading the offense. The offensive line has been a mess coming in as Football Outsider’s bottom –ranked unit in both run blocking and pass protection. Combined and you get Bell averaging less than four yards per carry in every single game this season with only two scores.
With all of the negatives, Bell remains a focal point of the Jets offense ranking eighth in carries per game and third in receptions per game among running backs in the NFL. New York now plays against, arguably, the easiest remaining rest-of-year schedule with their starting quarterback back on the field. The Jets’ offensive line woes are unlikely to see some magical fix but this should be a far more competitive team going forward with many more scoring chances for Bell.
Sell: Mark Ingram, RB11
The opposite, for much of what was said about Bell, can be attributed to Ingram. Baltimore went up against perhaps the easiest slate of run defenses so far of any team. The Ravens possess a good offensive line that is only accentuated by Lamar Jackson’s running ability at quarterback. The great start by Baltimore’s offense transferred to Ingram in the form of seven rushing touchdowns, tied for second in the NFL.
As detailed with Jackson, the upcoming schedule looks like one of the most difficult in the league. Ingram gets substantial rushing volume, ranking 13th in carries. He does not, however, receive much work in the passing game. Ingram has only 11 receptions and caught no more than two receptions in all but one contest. No other running back in the top-12 garnered less than 18 receptions and Ingram has been doubled in targets by all but one of those backs. He does not have the receiving usage to fall back on as the touchdowns inevitably slow down. Ingram is closer in usage to a player like Carlos Hyde than he is to the top fantasy backs.
Wide Receiver
Buy: John Brown, WR26
Copy and paste most of the schedule information from Allen here. Brown goes against poor opposition moving forward with enough reliable volume and deep usage to produce some really good fantasy output the rest of season. He is currently on pace for a top-10 finish in receiving yards. It would not be a surprise if Brown finishes in the high-end WR2 range going forward.
Sell: Terry McLaurin, WR14
One really cannot say enough about how well McLaurin has played this season as a rookie. Currently the Pro Football Focus #5 wide receiver, McLaurin produced consistently with five touchdowns in his first five games and has at least 50 yards in every contest despite playing with three quarterbacks. His play has simply gone beyond any reasonable expectation in year one.
Now we move to the bad. The schedule going forward for the Washington offense is hideous. There exists no good matchup until the fantasy playoffs with San Francisco, Minnesota and Buffalo up next. Another danger with McLaurin is we don’t know what quarterback will be playing in any given week and whether that particular starting quarterback will get yanked mid-game. It is extremely difficult maintaining consistent receiving results with inconsistent quarterback play. One cannot count on the same kind of touchdown production from McLaurin on an offense among the league’s worst. Now seems a great time to cash out on what was a third round rookie pick in most fantasy leagues.
Tight End
Buy: T.J. Hockenson, TE14
The tight end position seems very clear in fantasy football right now. Hooper, Engram, Andrews, Waller, Kelce, Kittle, Ertz, and probably Hunter Henry look like big, consistent pieces of their respective passing offenses and considered locked-in weekly starters. You feel OK with an older starter like Greg Olsen or Delanie Walker most weeks in your lineup. Everyone else is essentially a crap-shoot weekly filled with run blockers and committee/role players with limited passing game usage. In this case, I am buying low on a highly-drafted player brought in to eventually be a central piece of the offense.
Like most rookie tight ends, Hockenson has not exactly lit the world on fire with his play. After a monster week one, he caught just nine balls the next four weeks. His snap rates have decreased from the mid-seventies the first two weeks to the mid-fifties the past two weeks with Logan Thomas picking up the extra plays. The eighth-overall pick will eventually earn a bigger piece of the receiving share in this offense though it could be a while before he is someone worth starting in fantasy.
Sell: Zach Ertz, TE5
Let’s be real. You are not selling any of the top tight ends if you are a contender. There are just too few reliable options. This is more of a notice that Ertz might not be the fantasy advantage at tight end he once was going forward. Ertz has been Mr. Consistency this season with at least four receptions and seven targets in every game while producing 54 to 72 in each contest but has not produced a huge game so far. He might be an interesting acquisition for upper-end teams with one of the top playoff schedules this season.
There are some warning signs concerning Ertz’s production going forward in both the short and longer term. The “piece of the pie” for Ertz is likely shrinking. DeSean Jackson returns from injury shortly adding another target in Philadelphia’s offense. Second-year tight end, Goedert, is seeing the field more as the season moves along while grading out very well. The schedule over the next month also presents issues with horrendous matchups against the Buffalo, Chicago, and New England to go with the Eagles’ bye week.
Bio: Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics. He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time. Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.
