One Big Thing – AFC – Week 7
Every week we learn a little bit more about how a team sees each player as a part of their offense allowing fantasy footballers to react (positively or negatively) to those actions. Each week I will look to capture the “One Big Thing” that should have an impact on each team going forward and how you, the savvy fantasy player, can use that to your advantage.
AFC EAST
Buffalo
The Bills were able to get back in the win column but they did not inspire a lot of confidence that they have regained their September groove. The offense failed to score a single touchdown against the Jets and Josh Allen has slowly been slipping down the quarterback rankings each week. After being a top 5 scoring QB each of the first four weeks, his rankings over the last three have been QB15, QB16, and QB19. With a chance to put a dagger in the Patriots’ playoff hopes, hopefully, Allen and the offense return to the level that saw them averaging over 30 points in the first four (4) weeks.
NY Jets
Another loss for the Jets on their quest to win the rights to Trevor Lawrence but at least they had a lead at halftime. Small victories? Denzel Mims was finally able to get on the field, playing 79 percent of the snaps and catching four (4) passes which is a hopeful sign towards his future. With Jameson Crowder and now Breshad Perriman to miss this week’s game, he could have a more productive week along with Braxton Berrios.
New England
What a downward spiral the Patriots have been in since Cam Newton missed their week 4 game against Kansas City. After falling to a terrible Denver team two weeks ago, the Patriots offense threw four (4) interceptions against the 49ers last week and did not score a single touchdown marking the worst home defeat in the Belichick-era. Cam Newton finished with negative fantasy points and was benched in the third quarter for Jarred Stitham. Julian Edelman will also be sidelined until further notice after having minor knee surgery this week, so an already weak offense will be even weaker heading into week 8. A fourth straight loss might put the Patriots into a selling position two days before the trade deadline.
AFC NORTH
Pittsburgh
We have heard of a running back by committee but Pittsburgh might be trying out the first wide receiver by committee approach. A week after everyone declared Chase Claypool as the wide receiver to own in Pittsburgh he had only a single catch for negative yardage while the left for dead Juju Smith-Schuster had 14 targets and nine (9) receptions. The return of Diontae Johnson also made things murkier by also having nine (9) receptions and grabbing both of Ben Roethlisberger’s touchdowns. Luckily, this offense is high powered enough that it should be able to support multiple options each week but might not be able to feature everyone, like what happened last week. The plan should continue to be to play all three (3) when available but know that the roulette wheel may not land on everyone fairly each week.
Cleveland
Have a bad game, band together against the hater, win against a bad opponent, have the football community question whether they should be considered a good team. This is the cycle for the Cleveland Browns this season as they bounced back from their terrible game against the Steelers to come from behind in a shootout against the Bengals last week. Baker Mayfield started terribly, throwing a bad interception on the first drive that resulted in Odell Beckham Jr. tearing his ACL and ending his season. He finished by throwing a dime to Donovan Peoples-Jones to win the game on his fifth passing touchdown. The Browns have very winnable games in their four (4) November matchups (Raiders, Texans, Eagles, Jaguars) so who knows how the offense will perform over the next month.
Cincinnati
The Bengals may only have one (1) win thus far but at nearly halfway through the season it is clear that Joe Burrow was not just a one-year college phenom. He leads the NFL in pass attempts after week 7, is third (3rd) in passing yards, and has shown his mobility with three (3) rushing touchdowns. With his starting running back, Joe Mixon, out he racked up over 400 passing yards and did his part with a go-ahead touchdown before his defense collapsed. Another year in the system and hopefully an improvement on the other side of the ball and we could see a fourth-consecutive year of a second-year quarterback leaping into the elite conversation.
AFC SOUTH
Tennessee
I think back to week 1’s Monday Night Football and how people were concerned about A.J. Brown’s usage in that game and then his injury along with the team’s COVID situation caused him to be unavailable until week 5. In the three (3) games since his and the team’s return, Brown has been a consistent WR1 with weekly finishes as the WR11, WR4, WR5. He and D.K. Metcalf are the best receiving duo to come from the same college program since Jarvis Landry and Odell Beckham Jr. being drafted out of LSU in 2014. Both Brown and Metcalf should be easy top 10 if not top 5 dynasty assets at their position by the start of next season.
Houston
Quietly, Randall Cobb is having a bounce-back season that the fantasy community is not paying attention to, likely because of all the other storylines surrounding Houston this season. Cobb has averaged 71 percent of the offensive snaps and 16 percent of the team’s target shares. This has led him to three (3) consecutive games, as well as five (5) of the Texans first seven (7), scoring over 10 PPR points and ranking as the WR32 thus far. There have been rumors of either Will Fuller, Kenny Stills or both potentially being available for trade. If either one was to be moved, especially Fuller and his 20 percent target share, this could put Cobb closer to a WR2 some weeks and drastically increase his value.
Jacksonville
The question going into the Jaguars bye week is will Gardner Minshew be available to play after it was discovered that he has a fracture in his hand that he has played with for several weeks now? Mike Glennon has been the dressing backup and would likely be his replacement if the team thinks that Minshew will continue to be the quarterback but that is not a sure thing either. There are rumors that Minshew’s poor play in recent weeks could result in his benching. If that is the case then the team should look at rookie Jake Luton to evaluate him before moving focus to the 2021 draft. With only one win this season the Jaguars could be poised to draft near the top of the draft once again with a group of talented quarterbacks coming in.
AFC WEST
Las Vegas
It was talked about in the Street FA Report that Nelson Agholor seems to have taken over the WR1 role for the Raiders after being an afterthought signing with the team in the offseason. Both he and Darren Waller were the only productive players in the Raiders thrashing by the Buccaneers last week so his performance likely fell under most fantasy player’s radar. The offense had to abandon the run leaving Josh Jacobs with only ten (10) carries and season-low 6 PPR points. There should be plenty of opportunities for fantasy points in their next matchup against the Browns in week 8.
LA Chargers
Of the three (3) rookie quarterbacks taken in the top 10 it was suggested that Justin Herbert was the most likely to bust and therefore considered a riskier pick. His QB1 finish last week and QB4 overall ranking in points per game has all but ended that discussion. His success has not translated to too many wins thus far but another year of top 10 picks might benefit him and the Chargers by injecting more talent on the other side of the ball to create a better balance. The future of the Chargers looks bright with Justin Herbert on the field.
Kansas City
How much Le’Veon Bell was going to eat into Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s role was the talking point heading into week 7 however, because of how dominant the Chiefs’ defense and special teams played we did not get a full answer after their first game together. Bell only played a third of the snaps but did have six (6) carries to Edwards-Helaire’s eight (8). Proportionally, that feels about right for what the Chiefs want to do and as Bell becomes more comfortable with the passing game he will be more involved in those situations as well. This week’s game against the Jets could get out of hand fast, so there is a chance that this could be a game where Bell takes a lot of inconsequential snaps later in the game to get more game reps with this offense.
Denver
Everyone remembers the speed that Albert Okwuegbunam showed at the combine back in February, running a 4.49 40 time which was the fourth fastest since 2003 for a tight end. However, being drafted behind another ascending tight end Noah Fant put his value on the back burner for much of the offseason and to start this season. That is until Fant missed week 6 with an ankle injury so Albert O was called on against the Patriots and caught two (2) passes for 45 yards. Nothing special, but he continued to improve and hauled in seven (7) catches last week to lead the Broncos in receiving. With this season looking like a developing season while the team evaluates whether Drew Lock is the quarterback of the future Okwuegbunam could have similar games like he has had the last two weeks. He would also be an ideal resign candidate for those that use the feature more on developmental players rather than big splash contracts.
