2020 RSO Contracts: QBs

Updated: August 21st 2020

My annual look at early RSO auction values begins at the quarterback position.  The series was designed to give the reader help in planning for upcoming auctions by looking at actual RSO auctions already finished this year.  The data comes from a variety of different types of leagues with varying scoring rules and starting requirements which can drastically alter player values so be cautious in expecting values to match your particular league.  The information does provide a useful starting point for examining how RSO owners value players at a certain position relative to one another and the length of contract they are willing to invest.  Provided fantasy stats and rankings utilize ESPN scoring.

Average RSO Quarterback Contracts

Upper Tier

Mahomes and Jackson make up the top-tier of RSO quarterbacks, by a wide margin, with GMs making massive investments in the two.  Maybe no QB started off their first two seasons in the NFL as well as the Kansas City quarterback.  Mahomes still produced non-Jackson upper-level quarterback numbers while in the lineup despite dislocating a kneecap in 2019.  He retains one of the best supporting casts and coaching teams in the NFL.  Jackson essentially inserts a free RB2 in the lineup and easily finished 2019 as the top fantasy quarterback.  His improvement as a passer from his rookie season, where he was among the least accurate passers in the league, was nothing short of amazing.  His 27.2 points per game was 32% higher than the second-highest scoring quarterback.

Second Tier

Plenty of quality every-week starting options exist outside of Jackson and Mahomes at a sharp price discount.  Murray, Watson, Wilson, and Prescott all possess rushing and scrambling abilities which boost their weekly output.  The oddball out of this group is Murray who is more of a projection at this point, but one with tantalizing rushing and offensive volume upside.  He played a solid rookie season with little notable proven talent on offense against one of the most difficult passing schedules.  Murray’s schedule projects as one of the more difficult again in 2020 but the supporting cast is a year older and added former Houston star receiver DeAndre Hopkins.  The afore-mentioned loss of Hopkins may not reasonably help the Texans but might increase Watson’s rushing attempts. The addition of Randall Cobb and Brandin Cooks should also dampen Hopkins’ loss somewhat.  The only question surrounding Wilson is volume which limits the chances of reaching true top-tier production.  Prescott put together his best season as a pro in 2019 finishing as the QB2 and Dallas stole CeeDee Lamb in the draft.   Dallas was one of the most opponent-strength sensitive teams meaning they tended to crush lesser competition while struggling against quality units more so than other teams.

Low-End Fantasy Starters

Quarterbacks like Wentz, Brees, and Ryan provide relatively cheap and quality starting options in known situations with great surrounding talent but without the rushing upside of quarterbacks in the second tier of RSO auctions.  Boost them up your rankings in fantasy scoring formats which more heavily weight passing statistics.  I expect a big boost from Wentz, in particular, for 2020.  Injuries decimated the Eagles’ receiving core last season removing most of the deep speed element, while forcing players off the street like Greg Ward into the lineup.  The addition of first round draft pick Jalen Raegor and hopeful health of DeSean Jackson should alleviate some of those issues.  Brees finished as the QB5 and QB7 over the last two seasons in points per game and the Saints added Emmanuel Sanders to solidify the receiving core.

Wild Cards and Questions

I like Josh Allen and his rushing game as a great weekly matchup play, especially with the addition of Stefon Diggs to the receiving core.  I don’t like Allen’s current cost in RSO auctions with his demonstrated passing inconsistencies.  Tom Brady gets a big upgrade in receiving weapons for Tampa Bay with a coach who airs the ball out.  Is it enough to overcome old age after a remarkably unremarkable 2019?  Do we see Baker Mayfield, who failed to deliver on the hype last year, emerge under new coach Kevin Stefanski who utilized a relatively run-heavy offense in Minnesota?  What is the health status of Stafford (back), Roethlisberger (arm), and Cam Newton (all over)?  When do we see first-round rookies Justin Herbert and Tua Tagovailoa get a chance at the starting lineup?

Value Weekly Matchup Plays

Jimmy Garoppolo owns one of the highest completion percentages to start a career while also being among the most efficient quarterbacks.  The 49ers also project with one of the easiest schedules to start the season and during the fantasy playoffs.  A receiving group with practically no experience in San Francisco and potentially limited volume due to run-oriented scheme and great defense raises volume concerns.  Gardner Minshew posted quality numbers last year with many comparing him to Kyler Murray. Minshew ranked just 29th in ESPN’s QBR and 22nd in Football Outsider’s DVOA which highlights how one of the most pass-friendly schedules in the NFL inflated his numbers during the 2019 season.  The plus side is Jacksonville, once again, projects with one of the easiest pass schedules, particularly during the first half of the season.  Cousins and Rivers represent cheap reliable low-upside options.  Tyrod Taylor gives weekly rushing upside on a team with good receiving weapons for as long as he remains the starter.


Bio:  Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

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