2020 RSO Contracts: WRs

Updated: August 30th 2020

My annual look at RSO auction values moves to wide receivers.  The series was designed to give the reader help in planning for upcoming auctions by looking at actual RSO auctions already finished this year.  The data comes from a variety of different types of leagues with varying scoring rules and starting requirements which can drastically alter player values so be cautious in expecting values to match your particular league.  The information does provide a useful starting point for examining how RSO owners value players at a certain position relative to one another and the length of contract they are willing to invest.  Provided fantasy stats and rankings utilize PPR scoring.

Average RSO Wide Receiver Contracts

Top Plays

It is no surprise Thomas sits at the top.  He caught 45 more balls than any receiver last season and easily finished as the WR1.  Houston traded Hopkins to Arizona but it has not deterred RSO GMs from paying him as the overall WR2.  There’s unacknowledged downside at this price as receivers moving to new teams have not finished up to expectations very often.  Mahomes to Hill blends upside to potentially win fantasy weeks and decent target load.  A significant injury history with smaller stature adds week to week uncertainty.  Adams’ target load might be one of the few volumes which rival Thomas as next to nothing of a legitimate threat on Green Bay exists.  He does not offer upper-level efficiency and a disproportionate amount of his production historically comes from touchdowns.  Godwin and Evans both produced top-4 per game fantasy production in 2019.  What this offense and target distribution looks like is anybody’s guess with Tom Brady replacing Winston and Tampa Bay bringing in future Hall of Famer Rob Gronkowski.  Jones is among the most consistent yearly performers and the team is set up for big offensive production.  His efficiency notably dipped slightly last season for the first time.

Young Upside Receivers

Smith-Schuster produced a 1,400-yard second season at the age of 22 after an impressive rookie year.  That work was done with Antonio Brown as the Steelers’ WR1.  It’s questionable if JuJu can attain close to those heights without someone to take away top corner coverage.   We saw two quality back to back fantasy seasons from Golladay.  Matt Stafford depth of target in 2019 was incredibly high and Marvin Jones was injured for significant portions last year.  Golladay is a safe bet but may be priced near his ceiling.  Moore, Brown, McLaurin, Chark, and Sutton all could be excellent long-term alpha receivers who possess high upside potential with short-term questions concerning quarterbacks, volume, and/or new coaching staffs.  Metcalf, Ridley, and Cupp are secondary options attached to quality, stable quarterback situations who could be, or have been, closer to 1B type receivers for their teams.  Each has limitations in their respective skill-sets which likely limit the fantasy ceiling of each but also quality abilities in one or more areas which boost potential scoring.

Discount and Volatile Veterans

Hopefully Beckham returns to full health after playing last year injured.  Cleveland’s projected passing schedule eases this season.  Questions abound with a new coaching staff, Mayfield’s quarterback abilities, and whether injuries depleted the crazy upside of Beckham.  Cooper posted 1,000 yard seasons in four of five seasons in the league and is still only 26. He is consistently one of the most inconsistent week to week wideouts, destroying bad corners and completely taken out of the game by good defenders.  While many consider Diggs and Allen among the top receiving talents in the league, both receive significant passing downgrades at quarterback.  Thielen struggled with injuries last year and is already 30 despite limited seasons in the NFL but had two quality years previously.  He maintains a stronghold on the WR1 spot and keeps quarterback continuity in Minnesota.  Woods might be the best wide receiver value in RSO leagues at WR26.  Woods ranked WR17 and WR14 in per game fantasy points the last two seasons despite limited touchdown luck and Brandin Cooks left the Rams through trade.  The story for Lockett mirrors that of Russell Wilson in a certain way.  Hyper efficiency as the number one target for Wilson makes a weekly fantasy starter but a potential lack of throwing volume in run-heavy Seattle limits the ceiling.

Rookies

Lamb comes in as RSO’s highest-priced rookie receiver and someone I see as the most complete rookie receiver.  His opportunity may be limited short-term in a very good Dallas receiving group.  Many consider Jeudy the best rookie separator.  He lands with a strong WR1 talent in Sutton and Lock is a huge long-term question mark at quarterback in Denver.  Ruggs and Raegor land in spots with immediate fantasy production possibilities and are the most explosive rookie wide receivers in the class.  Raegor’s landing spot tied to Carson Wentz could prove an excellent long-term match.


Bio:  Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

More Analysis by Bernard Faller