Week 13 Street FA Report

Updated: November 30th 2021

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer one (1) player that is owned in <25% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

Matt Breida, RB – BUF (Owned 35%)

Week 12: 9 Car/26 yards, 2 Rec/29 yards, 1 TD

The longest NFL regular season has taken its toll on the running back position and teams making the playoffs will be starting interesting options during the final weeks of the season. One of those options that may still be available is Matt Breida, who built upon his performance in week 11 to score 13.5 PPR points on Thanksgiving last week. His recent development as a weapon in the Bills’ offense also allowed for Zach Moss to be a healthy scratch in week 12, suggesting there might be more to come from Breida to end the regular season. The Bills play the Patriots next week who just gave up two big performances to Dontrell Hilliard and D’Onta Foreman.

Suggested Bid: $8,000,000

WR Add

Josh Reynolds, WR – DET (Owned 25%)

Week 12: 3 Rec/70 yards, 1 TD

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If only the Titans had another veteran receiver to lean on with Julio Jones and A.J. Brown out last week. Tennessee released Josh Reynolds earlier this season after he was buried on their depth chart but he has reemerged in Detroit as arguably their best wide receiver. Claimed less than three (3) weeks ago, Reynolds is already playing on 90 percent of the Lions’ offensive snaps which bodes well for both his floor and his ceiling in fantasy the rest of the season. We will do well to remember that this is still the Lions who are averaging only 15.8 points per game. Still, an NFL team’s WR1 should at least be rostered in every league and a reasonable starter in many.

Suggested Bid: $2,000,000

Devin Duvernay, WR – BAL (Owned 34%)

Week 12: 1 Rec/2 yards, 1 Car/13 yards

It seemed like during Sammy Watkins’ injury absence that Devin Duvernay was carving out a role for himself as the gadget, WR3 in Baltimore. He took a step back last week with only two (2) touches but the game was sloppy all around limiting the number of touches for everyone. Lamar Jackson should bounce back and one way to help a QB under pressure is to use plenty of smoke plays to get the defense going side-to-side. Duvernay has the big play ability to run reverses, screens, and deep shot plays. While his week-to-week value is boom or bust he has the opportunity over the next month to have his moments.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

TE Add

James O’Shaughnessy, TE – JAX (Owned 4%)

Week 12: 3 Rec/29 yards

James O’Shaughnessy played on 81 percent of the snaps and had five (5) targets in week 12 due to Dan Arnold exiting with an injury that likely ends his season. During the Jaguars’ previous three (3) games Arnold was seeing 7+ targets and scoring at least 10 PPR points in each game, which is a solid back-end TE1 option to Team Stream. O’Shaughnessy should slide right into the same role with the same level of incognito that Arnold had to the rest of the fantasy community. He can be added to most deep leagues now and is a viable streaming option the rest of the season.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Sleeper Add (<25%)

Jauan Jennings, WR – SF (Owned 2%)

Week 12: 2 Rec/14 yards, 1 TD

The extent of Deebo Samuel’s injury is up to interpretation but the clear #2 option behind Brandon Aiyuk is Jauan Jennings at this point if Samuel’s injury keeps him out for multiple games. Jennings does not have the versatility to be an all-around weapon like Samuel but there are always scoring opportunities, like he did last week, in a 49ers offense that has put up at least 30 points in four (4) of their last five (5) games. Watch the injury reports this week and if Samuel does not make any improvements, Jennings is a worthy while stash going into week 13.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

Inaugural High Stakes League update 8

Updated: November 28th 2021

I’m coming to you a little later in the week on this one.  I devoted the front half of my week to Thanksgiving.  Both planning and enjoying.  Fantasy Football is great and all.  One of my favorite things in the whole wide world.  But, it will always be there.  The opportunity to spend time with loved ones will not.  I hope all of you were able to enjoy this Thanksgiving with people you love.

I’m proud to say that I watched almost zero football, as well.  If I’m being totally honest,  it’s not necessarily because of being devoted to Thanksgiving.  Although, I do try and not watch too much football each year and make it a point to mingle and have some good discussions.  Admittedly, more of the reason was that there just isn’t a lot of excitement in my personal football fandom world.  Unfortunately, I’m a Bears fan.  Things are pretty miserable these days.  I don’t watch the games as much as I’m watching the calendar.  Counting down the days until the end of the season when we will finally move on from head coach Matt Nagy.  Word has it the Bears actually won their game.  Barely.  Against the winless Lions.  I kind of wish the Lions had won.  Maybe Nagy would have been let go that day.  One can only wonder now.  All I know is it is affecting my desire to watch football these days.

However, It has not affected my interest in fantasy football.  Even as my own squad is out of contention this league has really been a lot of fun to watch and be involved in.  I’m really looking forward to the new storylines that we will develop next year when we add another league, that will compete with our current one, in one networked conference that will continue to grow more leagues within the conference over time.  Have you gotten your name on the waiting list yet?  It’s currently free and requires no commitment.  It does ensure you will be in-the-know as the league starts to come together so that if the timing is right and you are ready to make the jump, the opportunity will be there.  I look forward to writing about you and your accolades next season.  So, come join the fun – contact me today on any of my social media accounts, RSO’s social media accounts, or in a direct email to RSO via their website.  Tell them The Storyteller sent ya for a bonus code to use in ’22.

This past weekend was a big one in our league.  We had two match ups that carried a lot of weight.  The biggest of them all of was, of course, the battle between the #1 (Y Town) and #2 (“The Don” Piccolo) seeds.  As I am now essentially a part of the media as it pertains to the High Stakes League, it’s interesting that I’m now getting contacted by the…um, marketing department from the headquarters of some teams.  Following their big win, “The Don” Piccolo reached out to give a statement:

“Picking up cam Newton earlier in the week and starting him when Kyler was ruled out was paramount to my victory this week and moving me into 1st place.”

Indeed it was.  And it was a great match up that you would expect between the two big dogs.  Our scoring system is such that usually, if you score less than 100 points, you are assured a loss.  If you score more than 150, you’ve likely got a victory.  With our total points leader this season averaging 160 (XFL Stars).  A match up like this should see around 150 points scored and that’s what we got.  Going into Sunday night, things were looking somewhat dim for Y Town.  But, Y Town had Austin Ekeler who was an absolute monster scoring 41.50 points.  This put the game within reach for Y Town who was looking for that Monday Night Miracle.  With Tom Brady, Mike Evans, and 51 points to go, there were several people that I know for sure who were closely watching this outcome, including me.  In the end, Brady and Evans didn’t quite have enough juice in the tank to pull off a Monday night miracle.  The two players put up about 40.5 points which put Y Town at 147 for the week, about 11 points short of “The Don” at 157 points.  We officially had a new number one seed.

In the other game of consequence, Philadelphia Freeways was hoping to hang with the high flying, high scoring, XFL Stars.  Philly has maintained one of the better overall records while lacking total points, keeping them as a lower seed.  We knew they would need to score more points than they usually do to have a chance.  I’m happy to report that they did.  The XFL Stars, with a win, could move into the #2 seed because of the top two teams playing each other.  The XFL Stars wouldn’t need to do anything more than they have been so far this season as our total points leader.  Just keep putting up points.  They did it once again.  Setting the tone for the league as high points for the week at 183.  Philly put up more than they usually do with 122, but this XFL team is just too strong.  They are seemingly getting stronger each week.  They move into the #2 spot but might be the most feared team in the league right now.

Before I go this week I must mention the upset that happened at the bottom of the standings as well.  This league maintains integrity by requiring the best competitive lineup from an owner each week.  So, if you bench Davante Adams for Ben Skowronek, the Commissioner has the authority to make things right.  This is yet another reason it is beneficial to trade away stars in the final year of their contracts before the trade deadline as a tanking team who is looking towards the future.  The draft picks or other future stock are nice, but giving yourself the best chance at finishing as low as possible in the standings is important too.  So, when every owner keeps a competitive lineup, we still see a few upsets along the way.  Previous #12 seed, NJ Generals, accidentally walloped previous #4 seed, Big Tings.  Which means, yours truly, is now the #12 seed after another loss.  Thank you.  Thank you everyone.  I’ve worked really hard at being the worst and will keep working on being the worst team in the league (legally, of course) for the rest of the season.  Big Tings misses the chance to stay in the #4 spot and drops to 6th now instead.

Let’s see how things look after week 11:

(seed) Team. Record, total points

(1)  “The Don” Piccolo.  9-2, 1461

(2)  XFL Stars. 8-3, 1765

(3)  Y Town.  8-3, 1561

(4)  Wendell Takeover Project.  6-5, 1517

(5)  Just Dodge, No Rodge.  5-6, 1470

(6)  Big Tings.  6-5, 1460

(7)  Borderland Bombers.  6-5, 1427

(8)  DC Guardians.  5-6, 1384

(9)  Philadelphia Freeways. 6-5, 1335

(10) Schless is More.  3-8, 1268

(11) NJ Generals.  2-9, 1236

(12) These Truths to be Self Richard Dent.  2-9, 1221

Top four seeds based on record.  Final two based on total points.

Only a few weeks to go.  The next game of the week looks to be between juggernaut #2 seed XFL Stars and #5 seed Just Dodge, No Rodge, who recently underwent a minor name change.  That’s one of my superstitions, never change your name unless you have zero wins and need to shake things up.  Maybe it’ll work out better for these guys.  Come back next week and join me for the results.

– RSO High Stakes League Storyteller

More Analysis by Matt Russell

Strength of Schedule Targets

Updated: November 25th 2021

With the fantasy regular season nearing the end in most RSO leagues, owners with competitive teams need to begin thinking about reinforcing their squads for the final push into the playoffs.  Below I lay out a few NFL teams with particularly favorable offensive schedules for the rest of season or in the fantasy playoffs (weeks 15-17).  Many of the players on these teams may not be considered must start options at this point.  Not all teams have notably great offenses, but RSO owners should at least entertain obtaining certain players from each team based on the schedule ahead.  Players in the final year of the contract make easier trade targets from teams out of the playoff picture.

Efficiency Strength of Schedule

The following graph shows projected strength of schedule ranks of passing vs rushing for weeks 11 to 17 from Sharp Football Stats.  Upward and toward the right indicate easier projected schedules.

High-End Passing Offenses

Dallas has put up the fourth most passing yards per game with third highest yards per attempt so far this year and get Michael Gallup back soon.  They have a great end of season schedule featuring three great matchups from week 14 to 16 against fellow NFC East Washington (twice) and the Giants.  Prescott, Lamb, and Cooper all have enormous potential to end the league year.

The Bengals don’t have the high end matchups to finish the year but also don’t have much in the way of “avoid” games either.  Cincinnati is one of the highest volume passing offenses in the NFL ranking 7th in attempts despite playing only 9 games.  Burrow, Chase, and Higgins make for high-cost acquisition targets while Boyd and Uzomah could be nice cheaper pieces for weekly matchups.

Lower-Tier Passing Options

Philadelphia’s end of year schedule is spectacular with two games against Washington and the Giants plus another game against bottom-feeder Jets.  The Eagles transformed into a run-heavy offense but with a passing-attack that should highly concentrate targets between rookie wide receiver Smith and newly-extended Dallas Goedert at tight end.

Las Vegas’ year turned to complete turmoil the last few weeks with loss of head coach Jon Gruden and speedster Henry Ruggs but have one of the best schedules from weeks 13 to 17 and many games which could turn into shootouts.  There is considerable volatility with the potential for many shoot-out games or complete dysfunction on the part of the Raiders.  The loss of Ruggs should firm up target share for tight Darren Waller and slot specialist Hunter Renfrow down the stretch.

San Francisco exists at the polar opposite ends of the volume/efficiency passing metrics for a run-heavy offense.  The 49ers average the fifth highest yards per attempt with the fourth fewest passing attempts.  The next five weeks include games against Jacksonville, Seattle, and Atlanta.  Set the wheels up for George Kittle and Deebo Samuel while Jimmy Garoppolo sits as a weekly streaming option for as long as San Francisco is in contention.  Rookie quarterback Trey Lance would instantly become a starting fantasy quarterback option if he eventually starts but would be scary for the pass catchers.

While Houston and Cleveland have excellent end of year schedules, the state of both offenses make it difficult to trust many of the players.  Brandin Cooks should continue garnering a boatload of targets and Tyrod Taylor has superflex streaming appeal for Houston.

Rushing Offenses

We should note running back fantasy production, in particular, is massively volume –driven and efficiency only plays a minor part.  That means game script and roles mean a lot more than the quality of run defenses faced.

The Denver Broncos play a host of games down the stretch against defenses susceptible to the run and prefer a run-heavy approach instead of Teddy Bridgewater leading the way.  Melvin Gordon and rookie Javonte Williams have both shown well this season with a near 50-50 split in touches but it is the rookie shining, breaking tackles at a ridiculous pace.  The real question is if they are able to maintain the run-script playing the likes of Los Angeles, Kansas City, and Arizona.  Either way, big games are possible for each against these poor rushing defenses. Gordon or Williams instantly becomes an RB1 if the other is injured or other-wise unable to go at some point down the stretch.

Chicago similarly has an outstanding schedule for running backs with games against each of the NFC North teams and the Giants in week 17.  The switch to Justin Fields may help the rushing game as mobile quarterbacks have been shown to increase the output of running backs.  David Montgomery could play a big role over the next two months for fantasy players.

Bio:  Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

More Analysis by Bernard Faller

Week 12 Street FA Report

Updated: November 23rd 2021

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer one (1) player that is owned in <25% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

Cedrick Wilson, WR – DAL (Owned 24%)

Week 11: 4 Rec/36 yards

Six (6) teams are playing on Thanksgiving which leads to fewer opportunities for injured players to be available on a short week. Amari Cooper has already been ruled out and CeeDee Lamb has a long way to go for clearing the concussion protocol on just 4 days’ rest. That leaves Cedrick Wilson to potentially be the WR2 for Dallas against a Raiders team that has not looked strong during their three-game slide. If both Cooper and Lamb are out, Wilson holds immediate WR3 potential and could be the front-runner for the annual “comes out of nowhere on Thanksgiving” performance.

Suggested Bid: $2,000,000

RB Add

DeeJay Dallas, RB – SEA (Owned 33%)

Week 11: 4 Car/25 yards, 1 TD, 1 Rec/2 yards

Chris Carson was declared out for the season after missing the last month with a serious neck injury and Pete Carroll said it would be a running back by committee approach the rest of the season. This left Alex Collins, Rashaad Penny, and DeeJay Dallas as the likely contributors to Seattle’s game plans for the remainder of 2021. Rashaad Penny, however, was one and done with a hamstring injury in week 11 that leaves him out of the lineup for an undisclosed amount of time. Only Collins and Dallas now remain as the two-headed backfield for Seattle. The two split their snaps evenly in week 11, 18 each, in an otherwise terrible game from the Seahawks’ offense. Collins is likely owned in most leagues at this point but DeeJay is another RB to add to the platoon of bench options and he could be used in rotation at the flex position any given week.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

WR Add

Nick Westbrook-Ikhine, WR – TEN (Owned 9.5%)

Week 11: 7 Rec/107 yards

From Week 4 sleeper to Week 12 add, Nick Westbrook-Ikhine shined in an otherwise awful Titans’ game last week. Julio Jones was inactive and A.J. Brown was in and out of the game with various ailments allowing Westbrook-Ikhine to have his best statistical game of the season. With an upcoming matchup against the Patriots, it will be assured that Bill Belichick will be forcing the Titans to rely on someone else other than Brown to beat them. Look for Westbrook-Ikhine to have another decent shot at being a WR3/4 this week in fantasy.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

TE Add

Jack Doyle, TE – IND (Owned 20%)

Week 11: 3 Rec/30 yards

It is a testament to the position of the tight end when I say that consistently scoring at least six (6) PPR points over the last four (4) weeks should be considered a good quality but that is where the state of the position is right now. Jack Doyle has been the more utilized tight end for Indianapolis since my Week 8 recommendation of Mo Alie-Cox and while not necessarily an option that you would feel confident starting week to week, might be a manageable replacement still available for remaining bye weeks to guys like Travis Kelce, Dallas Goedert, Hunter Henry, etc. in the coming weeks.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Sleeper Add (<25%)

Rex Burkhead, RB – HOU (Owned 7%)

Week 11: 18 Car/40 yards

In one of the biggest surprises of Week 11, Rex Burkhead received 18(!) carries in a big win over the Titans. While he only managed 40 yards on those carries it seems to have done enough for the coaching staff to declare Phillip Lindsay as disposable since they then surprisingly cut him on Tuesday. This leaves just Burkhead and David Johnson as the only two (2) realistic options to be in the backfield for the final seven (7) weeks of the season. Burkhead was one of the Patriots’ most versatile weapons in New England as both a runner and receiver so his opportunities are looking much better compared to a week ago. He can be stashed for now to see what David Culley and the Texans’ real plans are going forward with him.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

Inaugural High Stakes League update 7

Updated: November 19th 2021

I don’t have much for stories this week.  More or less just an update.  Let’s take a look at the current playoff seeding:

(1)  Y Town 8-2, 1504pts

(2)  “The Don” Piccolo 8-2, 1303

(3)  XFL Stars 7-3, 1579

(4)  Big Tings 6-4, 1346

(5)  Wendell Takeover Project 5-5, 1393

(6)  Rodge and Dodge 4-6, 1356

(7)  Borderland Bombers 5-5, 1284

(8)  DC Guardians 5-5, 1277

(9)  Philadelphia Freeways 6-4, 1212

(10) Schless is More 3-7, 1184

(11) These Truths to be Self Richard Dent 2-8, 1108

(12) NJ Generals 1-9, 1101

A quick review of one of last week’s games.  Philadelphia Freeways, subject of our last update, continued their ways despite the trade deadline shakeup.  Newly acquired Davante Adams and Amari Cooper each fell about five points short of their season averages and Philly Freeways put up a measly 99 points.  But, the team wins again against a tanking Schless is More who almost accidentally pulled off the upset with 96 points themselves, giving Philly a decent scare.  Despite another win and one of the better records in the league, the team sits at the 9th seed due to their low point total.  Remember, after the first four playoff seeds the final two are decided by total points.   It’s looking more and more likely this team will have to win enough games to make it into the top four spots if they are to be playoff bound and possibly repeat as league champion.  Which is entirely possible.

A match we will be watching in week eleven is a showdown between the top two seeds.  “The Don” Piccolo and Y Town face off to give us a clear number one seed after this week and, with only a few more games remaining in the regular season, no one can afford a loss.  Due to the point total for each team, I think “The Don” is in more of a must-win situation.  Y Town is sitting pretty no matter what with second highest points in the league.  Salivating and watching from that 3rd seed spot, is XFL stars.  They are our total points leader and, if they keep winning, look to move into that #2 spot after this week.  But, who do they face?  Those Philadelphia Freeways.  I know this much, 99 points won’t win against XFL Stars.  XFL Stars is averaging 158 points per week and has never scored less than 110 points in any week.  But the Philly Freeways keep pulling off the wins.  Can they do it again?

Join me next week to find out.  Thanks for joining me for another update.  See you next week.

RSO High Stakes League Storyteller

More Analysis by Matt Russell

Week 11 Street FA Report

Updated: November 16th 2021

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer one (1) player that is owned in <25% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

D’Onta Foreman, RB – TEN (Owned 21%)

Week 10: 11 Car/30 yards, 2 Rec/48 yards

Much like Atlanta at the beginning of the season, it appears that we were once again bamboozled by a team signing a (perceived) better option at the running back position and assuming they were going to be taking over the backfield. In reality, coaches always trust the in-house option more, at least in the short term as they are more familiar with their capabilities and comprehension of the playbook. D’Onta Foreman has not done much of anything since being drafted in the third round by Houston in 2017 and his Achilles injury in 2018 seemed like the end before the beginning. But he has hung around the league and now has the opportunity in front of him to audition for a bigger role with another team in 2022. Foreman led the Titans in carries in week 10 with eleven (11) and we know that the Titans’ offense centers around a strong runner with a focus on a strong running game. He will never present Derrick Henry’s level of upside but a team that expects to be in or leading most games this season should see a steady floor of touches.

Suggested Bid: $5,500,000

RB Add

Wayne Gallman, RB – ATL (Owned 19%)

Week 10: 15 Car/55 yards, 1 Rec/21 yards

Speaking of Atlanta, the absence of Cordarelle Patterson from much of week 10’s game, coupled with an upcoming week 11 Thursday night game presents the spot start opportunity for Wayne Gallman if Patterson is unable to go. Despite not seeing more than 10 snaps in any previous week, Arthur Smith gave Gallman more opportunities, 43% snap share and 16 touches, than Mike Davis. Davis’ usage was dwarfed by Gallman as he only had four (4) touches. Patterson’s injury will likely not keep him out for long if he did miss Thursday so do not break the bank for Gallman. But he has flex appeal in week 10 and is worth monitoring till we find out more about Patterson.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

WR Add

DeAndre Carter, WR – WAS (Owned 9%)

Week 10: 3 Rec/56 yards, 1 TD

DeAndre Carter made the most of his opportunity with Curtis Samuel and Dyami Brown out for week 10’s game. He scored a touchdown for a second consecutive week while playing on 70 percent of the snaps for Washington. Carter’s value is directly tied to the health and availability of those two (2) players above him on the depth chart as either being the lineup has cut his snap rate below 20 percent in five (5) of Washington’s other eight (8) games this season. He is not more than a last-minute WR5/6 option if either is declared out on game day but in very deep leagues Carter is one to monitor.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

TE Add

Jack Stoll, TE – PHI (Owned 1%)

Week 10: 2 Rec/6 yards

The Holiest of Hail Mary options at the tight end position in week 11 but if Dallas Goedert is forced to miss this week’s game for Philadelphia next man up is undrafted rookie Jack Stoll out of Nebraska. The rookie saw 66 percent of the snaps in week 10 and other than fellow rookie DeVonta Smith there is no other target hog in this Philadelphia offense that would command an increase in their target volume. Goedert’s share of 4-6  targets would likely be the same with whoever his replacement is. The team will continue to focus on the running game but who says Stoll is any worse than some of the other options we have had to start at the tight end position this season?

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Sleeper Add (<25%)

Patrick Taylor, RB – GB (Owned <1%)

Week 10: 2 Car/7 yards

The fantasy community knows that whether it’s Mike McCarthy or Matt LaFleur the Green Bay coaching staff wants to include multiple running backs in their offense. AJ Dillon looked good with Aaron Jones out of the game and he is likely to continue to see a strong amount of touches over the next couple of weeks. Fellow rookie Kylin Hill is already unavailable due to his own injury which leaves Patrick Taylor as the only other available option for the Packers right now at running back behind Dillon. Taylor is the quintessential sleeper addition being available in virtually every league (<99%) this week. We will see what role he can play as the second option once the coaching staff builds a game plan for this week. He could be a cheap sign now before he shows anything that could increase his value heading into Thanksgiving week.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews