Inaugural High Stakes League ’22 Update 1

Updated: April 30th 2022

I’ve been away too long, my friends.  It’s been almost 4 months.  Of course, not one game of football has been played during that time but if you are here with me on the RSO site, you know how exciting an offseason can be.  So much has happened, in fact, that I’ve realized there are things we need to talk about.  That brings me here today.  It’s NFL draft week and I’d like to get one update in before the draft concludes

This one is all about movement.  Trades.  Glorious trades.  Every single team is making moves trying to position themselves for the upcoming season and it all starts with your draft.  Each week, and perhaps every day, there seems to be impactful information coming to light regarding players and/or possible draft picks.  That means every day values are changing, representing new opportunities to trade.  There’s really not much better than an active fantasy football league that takes advantage of all of these opportunities.  I’m happy to report that our league is indeed one of them.  As I write this, our league has already made twenty-two trades.  Each team has made at least one.  One team has made nine.  Pretty impressive.  How many trades have gone down in your leagues so far?  I’m genuinely curious to know.  Please comment on my Twitter or Facebook post when this article goes live.  I love feedback.  I would also love your opinion as to whether a higher entry fee correlates with higher trade activity.

Last year’s semi-finalist, Y-Town, has been our most active trader.  This is a team that seemingly prefers to work with proven players and utilizes draft picks as trade bait to shore up a safer starting lineup each year.  Well, as soon as RSO flipped the switch on ’22, Y-Town found himself with three new ’24 draft picks and it was game on from there.  This squad consummated their first deal on March 1st and has not gone more than two weeks without completing one since then.  He was my huckleberry for the only two trades I made this offseason.  Just slinging big names and picks all over town.

So, what else has been happening since our last chat?  Our league has one new owner this season.  This means we have at least one new team name.  I hope this one doesn’t get confusing but we now have a team called Philadelphia Bell.  This is in addition to the already existing Philadelphia Freeways.  This upcoming season may determine who gets to keep the Philly moniker.  I’ve also changed my name now that we are in the offseason and it’s safe to do so while not affecting my positive vibes.  I went back to my superstition regarding naming my team after one of the players currently on my roster.  I combined my superstition with my love of Pink Floyd and we now have Dark Side of the Mooney.  I feel real good about where these vibes are going to take me in 2022.

There it is, fellow owners.   A brief update just to get us back in the groove. I am going to enjoy that NFL draft now and see where it takes my team.  I put all the good vibes in place.  Now….. we watch the drama unfold.  Eek!


RSO High Stakes League Storyteller

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2021 RSO IDP Defensive Back Review

Updated: April 24th 2022

For our last article in the 2021 IDP review, we are taking a look at the last line of defense on the NFL field, the secondary. Sometimes the least sexy of the IDP positions, but one that can just as easily win you a week (looking at you, week 2 Mike Edwards and your pair of pick-6s) or they can deliver week-to-week value that supports your run to a championship (thank you Logan Ryan and your IDP production of 11+ in all 15 games you played!). You know what the method is here though, let’s take a look at our top performers from the 2021 season and a surface level review how we got there!

To note, this is a combined Defensive Back set of rankings (safeties and cornerbacks together) and not True Position. There are some pretty big distinctions in how you break down each position individually, but we will try and cover it as a group idea more so today. Here is our top 24 from RSO’s 2021 season with IDP123 scoring:

Some quick takeaways from this chart? Cornerbacks don’t represent or make up much of this list (5 of the 24) but Kenny Moore II did manage to be the top-scoring DB. This will align with positioning on the field and how his team utilizes him (we will see a similar story for Jalen Ramsey). Other CBs on this list are ones that posted impressive interception numbers (Diggs, 11, and Jackson,8). This is something that you can look back several years to see the similar type of results and as for big plays, that is generally not a consistent stat for Cornerbacks and IDP purposes. We are better off looking at two things. The first, we have stated multiple times and will always continue to call out. Check out those snap numbers!! Are the playing volumes of snaps? Are they getting 90%? 95%? 100%??? (We see you playing every snap in 2021 Xavier Woods) After finding out who is taking the snaps and getting the opportunities, who has the best opportunity to make the most out of those snaps? As for this one, we just want to simplify this down to, who is closest to the ball and has the best chance to be involved in as many plays as possible.

What does this mean? We want to find what one of the finest IDP minds calls, getting those “Sweet Spot” snaps (thanks @PFF_Macri!) based on their snap alignment. Those sweet spots are Slot, Defensive Line, and Box. As a quick knowledge drop for those uncertain what that means on the field, the slot is the when the line up inside of the outside cornerback. The defensive line is exactly what it sounds like, they get right up in line with the DLs. And the box is when they are lining up like a linebacker in the second level of the defense, behind the DLs. The trick is finding an IDP DB who plays as many snaps in these given alignments. This does not guarantee success for the players, however, it gives them the best chance to succeed! As we look at our top 24 from the previous season, we will see that they consistently play 40% or more (some up into the 60’s, 70’s even) of their snaps in one of these alignments. There are of course always outliers to this but generally, there is some other piece of information that helps us understand.

A quick look at some of these would be Minkah Fitzpatrick at #5 only played 20% of his snaps in the sweet spot and #8 Xavier Woods only played 38% of his snaps in there. Minkah’s supporting cast on his defense in the second level was one of the weakest this last season allowing him to make more plays from the deep safety alignment and he capitalized with a career-best 124 tackles. Minkah has been a solid IDP piece even from the deep safety alignment previously due to his big-play ability, but this year he moved up even more thanks to the strong tackle production. Xavier was a pure volume play, with lower than average tackle efficiency of around 8%, he lead the entire NFL in defensive snaps played and never missed a single play all season for his team. Sometimes the best ability is truly avail-“ability”.

Hopefully, these recaps help you understand why the top performers were able to produce for IDP the way they did at each level, and what to look for as you go forward for either redraft, dynasty, or contract style IDP leagues too. Stay tuned as coming up we will put together some information around the IDP rookies from the NFL draft, the start of season previews, and other articles. I will be participating in a live mock draft as well for the IDP Show after the NFL draft, so make sure to be checking out their content regularly for that and just great IDP news and entertainment as well at TheIDPshow.com.

More Analysis by Jake

2021 RSO IDP Linebacker Review

Updated: April 24th 2022

With the defensive linemen in our rear-view mirror, let’s maneuver our way to the second level like the crafty little scat backs we all are and weave ourselves into some glorious IDP information. Let’s take a look at the 2021 linebackers for RSO and recap what we saw.

As we look at the world of linebackers, we have a bit of the conundrum we saw in the previous article with OLBs who are truly edge rushers (or pass rushers) but end up with the designation of LB, which only muddies our ability to try and makes our analysis a bit more tricky, but we will get there! For those LBs who are in that pass-rushing role, please take a peek at the previous article, 2021 DL Review, for thoughts on how to look at players in that role and designation.

So what did the top 24 LBs look on the RealitySportsOnline platform this last year for IDP123 scoring?

An interesting list with a solid mix of players who are talented NFL performers, some LBs that I like to consider “warm body” LBs, and a few others that you were wondering how are they on this list?!? How do we identify this talent if it is not based on just NFL talent? In this case, we circle back to our first and consistent IDP indicator, the volume of snaps! Snaps! Snaps! And more snaps! #SpoilerAlert, this will come up again in the review of defensive backs in the next article too!

With linebackers, it is not just the volume of the snaps that help indicate the potential success of an IDP linebacker, there are other pieces that are solid indicators to look into. One of the first ones that stand out for me is the number of zone snaps a linebacker takes on a given week and season. This helps show us who is playing on the field for most of the snaps and the very important third-down snaps (and getting that 3-down role on their team). That doesn’t mean we don’t want to see a baseline for just overall snaps and we should be looking for players that are getting close to that 1,000+ snap baseline (which equates to around 58 snaps per game, based on a 17-game season). Lastly, you want to look at the number of snaps per game a team’s defense is actually taking on a per-game basis to understand these baselines for a defender to achieve.

Here is what some of these top performers look like in terms of these numbers. Of course, these are not gospel and the only way to determine things, there are most certainly outliers to any process, some examples not shown are Kamu Grugier-Hill and Alex Singleton both failed to surpass 800+ total snaps on the year but managed to still break the top 24 with above average tackle efficiency (average tends to show around 12-13% for league average) and some massive week performances to boot.

Moving forward with these thoughts, what are you looking for in building out your roster this year and the following ones? You want to focus on teams that keep their LBs in a strong amount of zone coverage snaps and the LBs who are getting those snaps (pay attention to who is running the defense and how they have historically). See what teams are getting enough snaps to hopefully hit that 1,000 total snap threshold based on the number of defensive snaps they are taking and the snaps a defender is getting (big hint, getting 100% of the team’s snaps is good!). Lastly, tackle efficiency helps us identify outliers a bit more as well with very high tackle efficiencies being an indication of over-production in the majority of instances (think high TD totals for a WR and how those generally are not a sticky stat).

I hope this helps you gain a better understanding of what you can look for based on what we have seen from players in the past as you get ready for your drafts this off-season. As always, feel free to reach out to me on Twitter (@jakekohlhagen) with any thoughts, comments, or general discussions and happy drafting!

More Analysis by Jake

2022 RSO Pre-Draft Rookie Rankings

Updated: April 16th 2022

Context is always a major factor in the success of an incoming rookie’s performance as it relates to immediate production. While we wait for the external factors to be determined such as team composition/competition and coaching staff philosophy, we can try to sketch out which players from the incoming 2022 class stand out in terms of broad-spectrum talent. Those that fit with a wider range of usages often yield the most immediate translation to the NFL but specialists can also thrive in the right systems. Lamar Jackson’s success is largely due to the Ravens changing a large part of their philosophy to commit to what Jackson’s talent was rather than trying to mould him into a prototypical quarterback.

Like the NFL, RSO managers need rookies to produce immediately upon entering the league to gain a competitive advantage under the rookie wage scale compared to the veteran market. Hitting on draft selections, especially first-round selections which carry the closest value to the mid-tier veteran market, is what often separates the championship tier teams from the playoff hopefuls.

Below are our pre-draft rankings based on the standard PPR, one (1) starting quarterback league for the first four (4) rounds of rookie drafts. A few players will be highlighted in each round that are targets to watch where and how deep they are drafted as it could affect their rankings in the final, post-draft rankings.

Round 1

Overall Ranking First Name Last Name Position School Positional Ranking
1.01 Breece Hall RB Iowa State RB1
1.02 Jameson Williams WR Alabama WR1
1.03 Drake London WR USC WR2
1.04 Garrett Wilson WR Ohio State WR3
1.05 Kenneth Walker III RB Michigan State RB2
1.06 Chris Olave WR Ohio State WR4
1.07 Treylon Burks WR Arkansas WR5
1.08 George Pickens WR Georgia WR6
1.09 Christian Watson WR North Dakota State WR7
1.10 Jahan Dotson WR Penn State WR8
1.11 Isaiah Spiller RB Texas A&M RB3
1.12 Skyy Moore WR Western Michigan WR9

 

Jameson Williams, Alabama – If you are a contending team who lucked into their choice of anyone but Breece Hall at 1.02 I would not fault anyone for passing on Williams coming off an ACL surgery. In terms of BPA though, he stands above both London and Wilson in terms of dynamic upside that fits with where the NFL has been trending with receivers over the last half-decade. Because of his injury, he could also slide down NFL draft boards to be paired with better quarterback talent.

Kenneth Walker, Michigan State & Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M – It seems more this year than any other year the likelihood of “nuked” landing spots for running backs could drop almost all running backs not named Breece Hall. Running back is the lifeblood of fantasy though and both Walker and Spiller showed enough talent that unless they fall behind far superior talent in the NFL, they will likely be first-round rookie picks. Spiller is the most likely to fall out of the first round due to how the community has been treating him since the end of the season.

Skyy Moore, Western Michigan – Every year there are players in the first round that in hindsight seemed like obvious candidates to avoid but we are still intrigued enough that we just have to grab them in the first round. While many think this reflects more for Christian Watson my candidate this year is Skyy Moore who I think needs to land in an offense that fits his playstyle more than the other top 10 receivers. A Jarvis Landry/Golden Tate type of prospect he could have tremendous value in PPR leagues if used properly. His team will ultimately decide for me whether he stays in the first round.

Round 2

Overall Ranking First Name Last Name Position School Positional Ranking
2.01 Rachaad White RB Arizona State RB4
2.02 Alec Pierce WR Cincinnati WR10
2.03 Khalil Shakir WR Boise State WR11
2.04 David Bell WR Purdue WR12
2.05 Brian Robinson RB Alabama RB5
2.06 Zamir White RB Georgia RB6
2.07 James Cook RB Georgia RB7
2.08 Matt Corral QB Mississippi QB1
2.09 Justyn Ross WR Clemson WR13
2.10 Malik Willis QB Liberty QB2
2.11 Jerome Ford RB Cincinnati RB8
2.12 John Metchie WR Alabama WR14

 

David Bell, Purdue – Bell has been one of those players in free fall all offseason going from a mid-first round talent to a mid-second round player that most have just taken off their boards completely. While the metrics are not great he is a player that I kept watching on film and wondering if the combine really is who he will be in the NFL. Ultimately, NFL teams will tell us what they think of Bell and if he falls to Day 3 he will fall further in rookie rankings.

Matt Corral, Ole Miss – Watching tape I think Corral, in a “meh” QB class, has the opportunity to be the most productive and long-standing quarterback in this class. He has all the modern NFL QB traits and projects as a Derek Carr/Andy Dalton level of talent. Both were second-round talents that beat the odds to be relevant in the league and Corral can be the same under the right tutelage.

Justyn Ross, Clemson – The amazing breakout metrics at Clemson keeps my eyes wide for a player like Ross. His scary neck injury reminds me a lot of fellow Clemson receiver Mike Williams who people questioned whether he would be able to come back to full speed. While Ross will not have the draft capital that Williams had Ross, like Bell, is a player that I likely will continue to be higher on than most. Ultimately, how far down the NFL board he falls will decide if he stays in my round two (2) or if he falls to the back half of rookie drafts.

Round 3

Overall Ranking First Name Last Name Position School Positional Ranking
3.01 Dameon Pierce RB Florida RB9
3.02 Wan’Dale Robinson WR Kentucky WR15
3.03 Trey McBride TE Colorado State TE1
3.04 Kenny Pickett QB Pittsburgh QB3
3.05 Pierre Strong Jr. RB South Dakota State RB10
3.06 Kyren Williams RB Notre Dame RB11
3.07 Zonovan Knight RB North Carolina State RB12
3.08 Jalen Tolbert WR South Alabama WR16
3.09 Sam Howell QB North Carolina QB4
3.10 Romeo Doubs WR Nevada WR17
3.11 Tyler Allgeier RB BYU RB13
3.12 Calvin Austin WR Memphis WR18

 

Dameon Pierce, Florida – outside of the top 25 guys it is always about a landing spot that can make or break a player’s immediate fantasy value. If Pierce can find a backfield that is relatively open either late Day 2 or the start of Day 3 he has the opportunity to be the late-round gem of this draft. His Damien Harris comps are comparable in that while primarily the “thumper” back he also could be used in the passing game more than most believe if in the right system.

Wan’Dale Robinson, Kentucky – While ranked 26th overall, my fantasy teams will have zero shares of Robinson who would have the land in the perfect situation to break the mould of 5’8” receivers being relevant. Could there be a chance a team moves him to be their third-down, slot running back which could profile better for success? His production at Kentucky is the only thing that keeps him viable in the eyes of fantasy football.

Tyler Allgeier, BYU – Immediately watching Allgeier I saw Samaje Perine as this wrecking ball of a running back. Many will cringe at the thought of Perine as a prospect but with Allgeier being taken closer to the 3/4 turn rather than the mid-second round value Perine held this is more reflective of what their talent levels are. A team that focuses on the running game around the goal line without a quarterback threat to steal sneak opportunities would be ideal for Allgeier.

Round 4

Overall Ranking First Name Last Name Position School Positional Ranking
4.01 Charlie Kolar TE Iowa State TE2
4.02 Tyler Badie RB Missouri RB14
4.03 Kevin Harris RB South Carolina RB15
4.04 Carson Strong QB Nevada QB5
4.05 D’Vonte Price RB Florida International RB16
4.06 Desmond Ridder QB Cincinnati QB6
4.07 Greg Dulcich TE UCLA TE3
4.08 Kennedy Brooks RB Oklahoma RB17
4.09 Hassan Haskins RB Michigan RB18
4.10 Kyle Phillips WR UCLA WR19
4.11 Cade Otton TE Washington TE4
4.12 Tyquan Thornton WR Baylor WR20

 

Charlie Kolar, Iowa State – Kolar has zero value as a blocker which might make it difficult for him to stay on the field initially but he profiles as one of the better receiving tight ends in this class, which is where the fantasy points are. Will he produce in a way that will make him worthy of a draft pick, who knows, but with a guaranteed four (4) years to see what happens the best place for lottery picks is at the end of your draft.

Tyler Badie, Missouri – I wrote in my notes that Badie seems like the running back who will never have a coaching staff give him the full workload but under the right two-back system could be a Giovanni Bernard/Tevin Coleman type of receiving back. Any offense that uses a primary pass-catching back like Washington with J.D. McKissic could make Badie the depth running back to have at the end of drafts.

Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati – If a team takes Ridder in the first round I hope it is later where he can sit and watch a year’s worth of practices from a veteran starter before he has to lead the team. He is being compared to Jalen Hurts in terms of his athletic upside but I think in any other year Ridder would be a Day 3 selection that has a long shot at a consistent starting role. Even in Superflex leagues, I would be hesitant to see what his situation is before even considering drafting him at Supeflex prices.

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

2021 RSO IDP Defensive Line Review

Updated: April 7th 2022

Welcome back you IDP connaisseurs! Let’s continue our journey into the IDP world of fantasy football. We will kick off our review of the 2021 season, with the DL position group. If you recall from our intro to IDP, the DL position(s) is one that can be dictated by two key factors, the first, and most important for all IDP success, is the volume (as it is for most fantasy positions). The second factor is the NFL player’s ability to win their one-on-one matchup at the line of scrimmage. The defensive line is the unique position of IDP that generally correlates IDP success based on NFL success, similar to the offensive side of the ball. These will be things we want to keep in mind as we go forward through IDP.

Before we look at those top-performing pass-rushers from 2021, we must look at who is designated as a DE or DT. Figuring that out though is tough because defense in today’s era of the NFL is not the same kind of football from 1990 through 2010 or even just 5 years ago. Part of that understanding is that so many times people throw around the term “3-4 base” or “4-3 base” as a point of how to identify or designate players. However, thanks to the talented Tom Kislingbury (@tomkislingbury on Twitter), this base defense generally doesn’t account for more than roughly 8,000 snaps across ALL TEAMS AND 17 GAMES! Down from nearly 12,500 in just 2014! The point of this tangent is to call out that NFL defenses run so many different packages and looks, just like NFL offenses do and that has left us in a precarious situation in which we are not always accurately identifying or designating defensive players. And the greatest offender to this is in the DL position group.

Let’s get back on course and take a look at our top 24 (ish) “defensive linemen”, and you will see the top 12 on RSO based on designation and then the other “DL” or “EDGE” players that get LB designation (scoring is based on IDP123 scoring):

Top pass rushers 2021

Cool, a table that shows the top 12 DL in RSO and those you can’t use due to designation, you say. But the table highlights our initial article about understanding your league’s roster composition and the difference between elite DLs and those at the replacement level. If you got inside the top 5 for this position, you were very happy with the production of your DL spot(s). It also showcases the need to understand positional designation for your leagues as well. Then, how do we get it so you can identify these players for you so you can get them on your roster?

For IDP, the first piece is getting on the field, and understanding an IDP’s snap counts is the first step to finding those who will succeed. The next step at the DL level is those who are winning their reps as much as possible each play. When you find that intersection you will see the top of your list here.

Baseline Analytics

After this elite level, you see things start to mix up with either higher snap counts (800+ total or ~50 per game) or consistent QB Pressures ( 50+ total or ~ 3 per game). These are baselines and basic analytics you want to search for to help you with your search for consistent IDP DL production. As for the Pass Rush Win Rate, this is a PFF analytical stat, so you can rely on a source like them to provide this via their site or you can use the eye-test if you are able to watch enough games or replays to see which defensive linemen are winning those snaps each play at a consistent rate and getting to the QB. I like the mix of this to help round out my search for my IDP assets.

Well, picking out All-Pro and Pro Bowl players is easy because that is what this list looks like. While you are correct, there are outliers and information in both directions that can help us avoid making mistakes or help us find the next top performer. Looking at players who had an abnormal amount of snaps (Cameron Heyward is up almost 125+ snaps based on previous 4 seasons’ averages) or one who showed consistent success with QB pressures but just did not find a way to convert this into statistical success. Examples from this past year would be Maxx Crosby (100 pressures, first in the league) and Rashan Gary (81 pressures, third in the league).

The last point I want to call out is to pay attention to players’ and coaches’ movements when it comes to IDP position designation. This is still an inexact science at this point and as you can see from the first table, there are players who are true pass rushers but have that LB designation so they don’t get to score at a DL position. And as defensive coaches and schemes change, LB and DE position changes can change along with it like Chandler Jones moving from Arizona’s “3-4 base” to Las Vegas’s “4-3 base”, will he stay with the LB tag? Will he shift to DE? And the inverse for Danielle Hunter (assuming he stays with Minnesota), where will his designation end up?

I hope this gives you some insight as to who the 2021 successes were, how they got there, and how you can work to understand it going forward for your drafts, trades, or anything else IDP related!

If you ever want to discuss IDP thoughts, IDP strategies, or just talk about fantasy football, you can reach out to me on Twitter @jakekohlhagen.

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