2022 NFL Draft IDP Risers and Fallers

Updated: May 28th 2022

The 2022 NFL draft is in the books. 262 rookies have new homes with NFL teams now. With these landing spots known for the talented IDPs, let’s take a look and look at some of the biggest takeaways from the draft. Biggest risers. Biggest fallers. And some additional key takeaways. It’s draft time!

Since we are going through this stuff to try and win all of our leagues, let’s start with our biggest winners from the NFL draft, one at each level of the IDP.

Lewis Cine, Minnesota Vikings, Safety (Pick 32 overall)

The Minnesota Vikings had Xavier Woods depart in free agency and he was the only player to play 100% of his defense’s snaps. He played over 1,200 total snaps and those are completely up for grabs. The only other real player in that safety room prior to the addition of Lewis Cine was Camryn Bynum. While Bynum is still there and a solid contributor, he fits more into Harrison Smith’s role and is a strong backup and third safety when needed. One of the biggest questions is how Ed Donatell will utilize them and what they see for Lewis Cine.

Cine was a strong presence in the box and near or at the line of scrimmage. His tape shows very clearly that he struggles in coverage, especially man coverage. He has the athleticism and explosiveness to read and react in zone coverage for plays in front of him, but otherwise, this will be his most prominent area of concern. This said, it points us to the fact that Minnesota most likely has a role for him, especially early on, as box safety is his primary role. This role is one of the more valuable IDP positions, especially for the defensive backfield.

Additionally, Minnesota had its pick of quite possibly the best IDP player in this draft in Kyle Hamilton when they were first on the clock with pick #12 in the first round. A safety who has all the tools, to play quite literally, anywhere on the field. They passed on this opportunity and still saw their opportunity at pick #32 in Cine still. All of this is a strong indication that Cine is their guy and he will play!

Quay Walker, Green Bay Packers, Linebacker (Pick 22 overall)

This is may seem super “chalky”, but Quay being the first linebacker taken off the speaks volume about what Green Bay believes about him but even more, is exactly what they told us about why they drafted Quay! They believe their team needs to be subbing less and keep the same defensive packages on the field. And looking at who the talent was behind De’Vondre Campbell last year in Krys Barnes and the lack of depth at the linebacker position for the Packers, Quay should have the clear path to LB2 on the Packers and what could be an upwards of 800+ snaps as a floor. Paired with a strong defensive front, Quay has a chance to be a relevant LB3 with LB2 upside.

Quay was possibly in most people’s top 5 LBs for the incoming rookie class, but he has the upside of being the LB1 or LB2 from this rookie class. And why wouldn’t he with a RAS (relative athletic score) of 9.67 along with a build of traditional run-thumping linebackers of years past? This jump in value is a strong one for Quay and I don’t know that this has truly been reflected in his total value in rookie drafts just yet. Quay is someone who should be a target for you in rookie drafts in terms of providing year 1 value and long-term value as well. If you are looking for a reason to not draft Quay, he doesn’t have a stand-out weakness at this point. He is more than just a safe pick, he is a good pick at this point!

Arnold Ebiketie, Atlanta Falcons, Defensive End (Pick 38 overall)

Ebiketie has a wonderful cross-section of talent and opportunity with his film, production, and landing spot with the Atlanta Falcons. Ebiketie’s college production has shown us that he can win and produce as a pass-rusher (90.5 PFF pass-rushing grade) but he holds up in run defense too (78.3 PFF run-defense grade) which is ideal for an Atlanta Falcons defense that is pretty much depleted of talent along their defensive front, Ebiketie should find a way to snaps early and often.

Now, just because Ebiketie may see a large number of snaps in year 1, he still has some work to do to ensure he continues to grow as a well-rounded rusher. He has the ability to win on one move and get to the QB, but he is not effective if he doesn’t win on the first pass-rush move so there is still a good amount he can do to continue to grow as an NFL defender. These things said, he should have a clear path to high-volume snaps right away, worth the upside for what he can be long-term as well. He has moved up into the 4-5 range of DL in this year’s rookie class.

Now for the unfortunate flip side of the rookie draft, the fallers! Let’s get to it.

Bryan Cook, Kansas City Chiefs, Safety (Pick 62 overall)

Cook was an exciting prospect from his last season at Cincinnati. He was a large part of why the Bearcats had as much success as they did defensively. His sure tackling and ability to move around through different alignments when needed where crucial. While he did shift around, he still took the bulk of his snaps from the deep safety spot (or “free safety” as some people more affectionately call it) which on average, tends to be a lower value position of IDP.

You are probably asking, why does this make him a faller then? Well, for me, it is paired with the uncertainty around what Kansas City has in its safety room. They had Juan Thornhill already, brought in Justin Reid early in free agency, a move that states they are looking to use him a valuable piece of their defense, and now Bryan Cook. Where does everyone end up in a Kansas City Chiefs that has used 3 safeties enough in the past for them to be relevant? Does Thornhill keep his deep safety role? Does Reid take the Matheiu “star” role and move around the defense? Does Cook get that? Are they more rotational? For me, Cook is a great upside swing if your roster composition allows for it, as he might be someone you could wait on to carve out a more full-time role or he might earn day 1. But the uncertainty weighs too much on me and there is better options we stronger chances of success in the same range you would say Cook going.

Chad Muma, Jacksonville Jaguars, Linebacker (Pick 70 overall)

Muma was flipping between LB3 and LB4 for me pre-draft, and man, do I still love the talent and instincts he showcased at Wyoming. I would have been happy with him at LB1 in this rookie class with some of the better landing spots available this off-season as well. However, we saw the literal, worst-case scenario happen for Muma. He landed on a team that JUST paid an average NFL linebacker 25 million dollars over the next two years without a true out on the contract until 2024. Now, with the new defensive coordinator, Mike Caldwell, the Jaguars are going to presumably be running out 2 LBs pretty consistently (based on what they did in Tampa Bay). Except for one little problem, the Jaguars spent late, first-round draft capital on Devin Lloyd too!

All these things point to Muma being relegated to LB3 on the depth chart and waiting for an injury for any consistent or meaningful snaps for IDP purposes. If you have the luxury of sitting on a talent for one, but most likely two years, then this will be a value steal in almost all rookie drafts for you as he is quickly falling behind many other year 1 upside LBs like Troy Anderson and Christian Harris. If you want to take the injury swing and/or stash approach with Muma, you could be sitting on a potential strong LB2 or better in a couple of years.

Travon Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars, Edge (Pick 1 overall)

Walker impressed everyone with his combine and RAS of 9.99 so much that he made his move all the way up to #1 overall in the 2022 NFL draft! While this is a great accomplishment for Walker and his NFL value, this, unfortunately, left him in a situation where he is being slotted in as an OLB on a lot of site platforms, most specifically, for Reality Sports Online. While Travon certainly has the athleticism to make an impact on a real NFL game, the limited value for what Jacksonville has produced for edge pass-rushers (outside of Josh Allen) is inconsistent and limited at best. Couple that with the challenge of being ranked among other LBs that will produce value much more consistently, he presents a very low ceiling given his situation.

As a fun side note, the discussion around positional designation on RSO has come up in the Twitter-sphere and there are some initial discussions around leagues having the power to shift this on a case-by-case basis, so this could go away (potentially!).

As for Walker’s pure production profile as an NFL edge rusher, he is someone that has showcased the ability to make plays in both the run and passing games, but, not so at a level to expect immediate contributions. In watching Walker’s approach to attacking in the passing game, his assignment (I assumed) was to take a step laterally or a greater focus on edge setting, versus getting upfield. This very likely is a product of the defensive scheme, but the limited amount I saw of him getting upfield and winning early against his blockers worries me about what he can do for IDP production. Walker is someone who might be great for NFL, but limited, at best, for fantasy football.

As always, would love to discuss anyone’s thoughts and you can do so by reaching out to me on Twitter, @jakekohlhagen.

More Analysis by Jake

2022 RSO Writer’s League Rookie Draft

Updated: May 16th 2022

Rookie drafts for Reality Sports Online teams involve a number of considerations different than a normal dynasty league.  Selected rookies are typically given three or four year contracts at, hopefully, a below market contract.  RSO GMs then have the option of extending a player with franchise tags, extensions, or final year options (depending on the chosen settings in your league) which usually are near or above market value for a given player.  This makes the initial rookie contract years potentially extremely valuable and the real measure of worth for a rookie player.

The RSO Writer’s League recently finished our three round rookie draft with results posted below. The league is a 10-team Superflex PPR format.  This article analyzes some general thoughts on the draft in comparison to other drafts and my own pick decisions along with a couple of other interesting players.

Writer’s League Draft

Overall Draft Thoughts

The Writer’s league draft likely mirrors other drafts in many ways.  The players of picks 1-7 probably remain the same in most formats, in some order, with maybe one or two surprises sneaking in.  Likewise, the 8-13 tier in this draft represents players likely seen in most superflex drafts for this range.  Things get very interesting afterwards.  I wouldn’t be surprised by any of around fifteen to twenty names go next in the draft, a true crap-shoot.  It’s a very broad tier of players where team fit and individual evaluation will drive selections.  This group is highlighted with role-specific running backs, 3rd round NFL quarterbacks who might never be even the short-term answers, and the top tight ends who are notoriously slow developing for fantasy football.

It’s also worth comparing this rookie class to last year’s group.  The lack of legitimate starting quarterback prospects really lowers the potential of a rookie class in superflex leagues.  One could reasonably make the argument that every 1st round pick from 2021 would be in consideration for a top-five spot in this year’s draft.  The afore-mentioned lack of highly drafted quarterbacks contributes to some intriguing dart throws potentially available in the 3rd round of drafts.  Willis and Ridder offer excellent athletic upside (and with it fantasy upside) if they ever get starting QB consideration by their teams.  The sheer amount of mid-round running backs taken by the NFL in this year’s draft makes for a lot of potential committee backs with significant chances of some relevance for fantasy leagues.

Notes on Selected Picks

1.08, Kenny Pickett QB

Pickett earns the distinction as the only quarterback selected in the first round of the NFL draft with the 20th selection by the Pittsburgh Steelers.  He could start as early as this season with an uninspiring Steelers quarterback depth chart.  The Pittsburgh product showed excellent accuracy on and off platform.  Pickett made one of the most dramatic leaps we have ever seen from a college quarterback.  The following excerpt from PFF’s Draft Guide displays just how big of an improvement Pickett made last season.

There are a host of potential downsides.  The question is was last season a one year wonder?  Pickett provides adequate arm strength and mobility but nothing that will “wow” anyone while also struggling with pressure at times.  Does he possess a fantasy ceiling of more than a moderately useful QB2?  Pittsburgh might also end unexpectedly bad in a stacked AFC leading to a high draft pick next season.  NFL teams have shown a willingness to move on quickly from these mid-first type quarterbacks if they don’t pan out.  That makes his job security very questionable at this stage.

1.10, Skyy Moore WR

My first pick ended up with the new Kansas City wide receiver, my WR6 both pre and post-NFL Draft.  The Central Michigan product and James Jones favorite gets to play with one of the top quarterbacks in the league on his rookie deal. Moore brings inside outside versatility despite a smaller frame with a solid build, big confident hands, and explosive play-making routes.  He rated among the top wide receivers in the draft for open percentage and catch rate statistics per The Analyst.  There’s also room for improvement to Moore’s game as he only converted to wide receiver in college.  The Kansas City provides lots of opportunity, especially after this season, as all the primary wide receivers are in the final contract year or have contract outs after the 2022 season.

The major concern with Moore, and small school prospects in general, is how they translate to the NFL after winning against lesser athletic competition in college.  Moore’s 4.41 forty-time and elite-level 10-yard split helps alleviate that concern to a degree by showing off enough athleticism to win at the next level.

2.02, Jahan Dotson WR

Dotson seems a player that the NFL was always higher on when compared to the fantasy community.  Multiple reports predicted him going in the first round before the draft.  Dotson is another smaller receiver who nonetheless played a lot in the outside in college (a lot more than players like Burks and London).  Many film analysts grade Dotson with the best hands in the draft and he had to utilize those skills regularly thanks to some of the worst college quarterbacking from a major school last year.  The former Penn State star produced a fabulous third year and could have entered the draft after it if he wanted. He should start immediately for the Commanders and Washington doesn’t have anything locked in at wide receiver for the future as Terry McLaurin still has no extension.

Size likely presents obstacles to Dotson ever becoming an upper-level after-the-catch receiver and also showed up as an issue when faced with physical corners.  His college contested wins may not materialize against bigger, more athletic corners in the NFL.

2.03, James Cook  RB

Cook is easily one of the most fascinating players in rookie drafts.  Most draft analysts considered Cook a mid round undersized committee back at the NFL level. He routinely went in the late second round of fantasy drafts before surprising second round draft capital by the Buffalo Bills but has seen a meteoric rise since.  This is as late as I have seen him go in rookie drafts after the NFL draft.  Cook rates as the top receiving back by many.  He looks a lot like his brother Dalvin when running outside showing off easy speed and fluid movement skills.

The real question for Cook is what role he plays for the Bills.  Is Buffalo expecting a primary back, a role he never played in college and one we don’t see often at his size?  Will he be primarily used on passing downs? If so, Buffalo ranked bottom-five in running back target percentage the last two seasons when Josh Allen emerged as a top quarterback.  The Bills clearly wanted to upgrade the receiving back position after signing J.D. McKissic before he backed out of the deal.  Is Allen suddenly going to be a lower depth-of-target thrower and reduce his role near the endzone?  Overall, there are a lot of questions on what Cook actually does for Buffalo and how that translates to fantasy football but also a ton of upside if he takes a big role on a top-tier offense.


Bio:  Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

More Analysis by Bernard Faller

Slow Auctions

Updated: May 7th 2022

Slow Auctions are now available on the site! I’ll walk through the various aspects of the slow auctions and my own thoughts on they will play out.

How it Works

Each team in your league gets their own auction to run.  Each of these auctions individually run just like the auctions of old with the exception that you’re the only one nominating players for your auction.  The bid countdown resets with each bid, exactly like the quick auctions, so there’s no blind bidding and there’s no value to waiting till the last second to bid.  The commish tools of pausing and resuming the auction functions across all auctions, not individually.  You pause/resume them all at once.

Auction Settings

The auction nomination and bid timers can now go up to a max of 86400 seconds (1 day).  The bid timer settings are what matter for the purposes of making it a slow auction, anything at an hour (3600) or more for that setting will be considered a slow auction.  You can update these timers if you pause your auction, but you can’t swap from a fast auction to a slow auction or vice versa without resetting the whole auction.  Honestly this is something we’ll probably add in the future (at least going from a fast auction to a slow one).  It was something that didn’t even cross my mind until earlier this week and just didn’t have time to implement it before auction season.

I personally wouldn’t go over 12 hours for a bid timer.  Anything more than that and your auctions have the potential to last a very, very long time.  If you go shorter than 8 hours you can of course pause the auction overnight and resume it in the morning.  You could also pause the auction each night, set a longer bid timer, and then resume the auction right away if you wanted it running overnight.  Pausing the auction does reset any currently running countdowns, so it seems like it’d be less work to just pause the auction overnight since it’s likely that nothing definitive would happen overnight, but that’s ultimately up to you and your league.

These style auctions do have the potential to take a long time (worst case scenario it would literally take months) depending on your league settings (roster sizes, open roster spots, bid timer, etc.), but the biggest determining factor will be if you’re messing around with tiny bid increments and/or letting the bid timer wind down before bidding.  Don’t mess around with the low bids early on.  Be sure to use the manual bid to jump it early and they will go much quicker.  There’s also no value in these auctions to waiting till the last moment to bid, so I’d recommend simply bidding when you can.

Auction UI

Honestly don’t think there’s a ton to talk about here, hopefully it’s pretty intuitive.  For these slow auctions you’ll see an additional area towards the top where you can switch between the multiple auction instances that are occurring in your league.  They are color coded to indicate roughly what state each of them are in.  Blue is waiting for something, either the auction to start, a nomination to occur, or signifies that the auction is complete.  Yellow is there’s currently a player up for negotiations and you’re not currently the high bid.  Green is there’s currently a player up for negotiations and you are currently the high bid.  Otherwise everything else should be the same as the auctions you’re used to.

Other Functionality/Thoughts

A few other small things and edge cases I should mention.  You’re max bid and available contract durations are affected by any current high bids your team has out there.  If your league only allows one four year contract, and you bid a four year contract on a player, you can’t then offer another four year contract to a different player.  You’d gain back the ability to place another 4 year contract on a player if you’re outbid.  The same goes for your roster limit.  If you only have one open spot left, and you’re currently the high bid on a player, you can’t offer a contract to any other player until you’re outbid on the first.

Our auctions have never held tight to league positional requirements/limits for bidding on players and it’s no different now.  You’ll just want to be more mindful of your roster composition since there’s more auctions going on at once.

Slow auctions do have email notifications around a few events since the point is to not have to be in the auction room the whole time.  You’ll get an email when it’s your time to nominate a player, when you’re outbid on a player, and when you win a player.

More Analysis by Kyle English