After an emotional or intense experience, you’re likely to say some things differently than you would after you cool down from your climax, think about things, and come back with a rational approach instead of an emotional one. But even after a couple of weeks I still have to ask, was your rookie draft as good for you as it was for me? <Takes final puff of his smoke and flicks it>
A great draft starts with a great game plan. You have to set yourself up for success. But, as we all know, even the best-laid plans can turn into an Amber Heard turd on Johnny Depp’s pillow quicker than you can snort a line of cocaine. Still, I believe when you enter with a plan and things start to go awry, you can adapt better when you have an end game to look at. It’s like seeing a whole map with multiple routes that will get you to the finish. Sure, there is the optimal way. That’s the one you build your plan around. Then a tanker explodes on the toll road so you look at your map and find the best alternate route at that time of day. With no map or plan, you’re just off on a Sunday drive. I’ve had four RSO rookie drafts this year and this one was one of my first so a plan was important. By the time my other drafts started a week later, I had a really good idea of landing spots for players. Still, there was one draft where an early run on mid-tier RB’s surprised me and left me in a different position than I expected to be in. The alternate route got me there, albeit with a couple of lower-tiered guys than I expected. However, I finished the High Stakes league draft mostly happy as the majority of it went according to plan.
As we explore this rookie draft the details of our league are important to understand each team’s approach. This is a Superflex PPR league that has a full starting lineup that looks like this: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, RB/WR/TE, RB/WR/TE, QB/RB/WR/TE. That’s a total of 9 starting spots along with 13 bench spots and an additional four IR spots. So, the rosters go deep enough to call us spelunkers.
First, let me give some general notes and thoughts.
- 7 trades during this draft. There are multiple times leading up to the draft to make trades but ever since RSO introduced the slow draft with trading some years ago, it has taken drafting, and draft values, to another level. The ability to trade into a position to “grab your guy” or even just to grab a player of value who has fallen too far, enables us to pinpoint our timing while allowing the other owner to benefit from not seeing the value in the same pick. It’s a great feature that makes you feel like Kevin Costner in Draft Day.
- QB’s went too early. That’s just an opinion. I did my homework before this draft and expected something much different to play out. Let me explain why and feel free to comment on my social media whether you think it was a logical approach – We only had one rookie draft before this year. It’s our third year in the league but we didn’t have a rookie draft in year one. So, to get an idea of where the QB values lie we have to look at last year’s draft. TLaw at 1.01. Fields at 1.03. Lance at 1.07. Zach Wilson 1.09. Mac Jones, the 15th pick in the NFL draft, went at 2.02 in our draft. Doesn’t it seem reasonable to expect Pickett, an NFL 20th draft pick, to be available at 2.02 this year? Well, it wasn’t. Pickett was snatched at 1.10. Last year, 3rd round NFL draft pick Mond was picked at 2.12, 2nd round NFL draft pick Trask was picked at 3.02, and 3rd round NFL draft pick Davis Mills was picked at 3.03. Doesn’t it seem reasonable that this year’s tier trio of Willis, Ridder, and Corral would go near the end of the 2nd round and possibly well into the 3rd round of our draft? I think it sounds very reasonable, however, all three were gone by 2.06. That’s barely behind Pickett. Even NFL 5th rounder and big-time chicken nuggies fan, Sam Howell, got some early 3rd round love at 3.01. A lack of options changed the landscape for draft expectations this year. Plus, individual needs can also affect these outcomes. Clearly, it’ll be good for me to include additional data sets for my homework next year. Fact is, if you didn’t reach a little this year, you didn’t get a QB.
- The Wendell Takeover Project made the first big move of the draft in a rather straight-up trade consisting of their ’23 first for this year’s 1.06. Wendell lost their only RB in McCaffrey due to a bloated contract of around $53m that needed cut to get cap compliant at the deadline, three days before the draft. This left them hungry for a RB so they made their move to grab the polarizing prospect, James Cook. With only so many upper-tier prospects at RB this year, Cook was the cheapest and this is a PPR league, after all, which is where he should shine. Wendell next used their 2nd round pick to grab Rachaad White. Then, about 10 days after the draft ended, they moved DK Metcalf in a deal to acquire Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake, completing a full revamp of the RB position this offseason.
- Last year’s champ, “The Don” Piccolo, found a lot of value later in the ’21 rookie draft with picks 1.12 (Waddle), 2.02 (Mac Jones), 2.08 (Gainwell), 2.10 (Amon-Ra), and 3.05 (Chuba). Almost every one of those names played a role in this squad taking home the title and at least three of those names provided an absolute massive value. “The Don” entered this ’22 draft in pretty much the same position with no 1st round picks and many 2nd and 3rd round picks. Can they make the magic happen again? If last year is any indication, keep your eyes on these prospects that “The Don” drafted: (Traded up to 2.01) Skyy Moore, (2.06) Malik Willis, (2.12) David Bell, (3.04) Wan’Dale Robinson, and (3.12) Justyn Ross.
- Speaking of last year, we have replaced one owner. The new owner now sports the team name Ballin on a Budget. I think this owner did most of his damage before and after the draft. Regardless, it’s hard to recognize this team from the one they took over in March. Just a completely new look. This new look and new owner came to the draft with a new and interesting approach as well. Only two draft picks, late in round 2, and they used them both on TE’s. Zach Ertz looks to be their number one but Tre McBride and Greg Dulcich will get to develop for one year behind him. McBride also provides a handcuff scenario for Ertz.
- Last year’s runner-up, XFL Stars, didn’t have much faith in this draft class. They traded away all their picks except the 1.03. It wasn’t like they didn’t try to trade that one away either but they apparently got no worthwhile bites and had to settle for Drake London. I’m thinking about offering a ham sandwich for London to see where his value is with this owner.
Now, for a few thoughts from my perspective as the draft progressed. Going into this draft I didn’t feel like I needed much help at WR. Although, I lack an elite at the position. No help is needed at TE. RB was my biggest need – I wanted to stock up here. And I could use a QB, but I wasn’t as desperate for one. Shortly before the draft, I acquired Jordan love (2yrs/$3m) and Cole Kmet (1yr/$1.5m) for the 2.03 pick. I already have Aaron Rodgers through ’23 and Jameis through ’24 so Love gives me a handcuff. Plus, on the outside chance he gets traded into a better situation, maybe I get a starter out of the deal. So, I’ve got the 1.02, 1.12, 2.02, and 3.09. The plan? RB at 1.02 of course. A 2nd RB with one of my next two picks and one pick for wiggle room where I don’t end up with a RB necessarily – I can grab a WR but I’m hoping to get a QB, or a RB, if not.
The draft opens and Big Tings is on the clock. They announce one last check on the room to see if there is any interest in trading up for the pick and they get no love. Smart move to ask but they take the obvious choice in Breece Hall. When it gets to me I don’t hesitate long. I need a RB here and have to take Walker. Now to watch the WR’s take over like they did in the NFL draft. The first pick that affected me was Kenny Pickett at 1.10. I wasn’t totally shocked but was really hoping he would fall to me at 1.12. I also had dreams that maybe James Cook would fall this far too but no such luck as Wendell snatched him at 1.06. Now, I’m eyeballing that second tier of RB’s. I have them ordered but see them all similarly. It gets to me at 1.12 and all five are still on the board so I decide I can trade back. I have the 2.02 coming up also so I feel comfortable moving back from 1.12, up to five spots or so. I find my trade partner in the DC Guardians who owns exactly that 2.05 spot. They throw in a ’23 2nd rounder and we have ourselves a deal! They grab Zamir White, the first of those second-tier RB’s, and that completes round one.
The draft is back to me at 2.02. Plus, I have the 2.05 coming up. Four of those RB’s are left. I don’t need a WR here and I think it’s too early to draft one of those second-tier QB’s. I was ok with any of the RB’s I would end up with at 2.05 now as well. I consider trading back again but keep looking at the trade board and WR, Jahan Dotson keeps looking back at me. He’s clearly the last of the upper tier of WR’s. I don’t need one but I decide that because he’s a first-round NFL talent that he has the potential to turn into my missing elite WR. We’ll see. But, I just couldn’t pass up the value of getting him at the 2.02. After that, I was certain those RB’s would start going. To my surprise, the next two picks were QB’s Ridder and Corral and it’s back to me at 2.05. Those QB’s really threw me off – I had them ranked 20th plus. I didn’t want to miss out on a QB but I felt it was a reach right here and stuck with my rankings. I also had Willis ranked lower in this league as I wanted a QB who would have a better chance of contributing this year. I explored some trade options but didn’t want to go back too far and I couldn’t get any bites near the positions I wanted. Looks like I’ll just have to take a RB here. Like at QB, I preferred a RB who would have the best chance to contribute the most this year. I felt that guy was Dameon Pierce. At this point, I felt I reached my objective of improving my RB’s for this season and I resigned to the fact that I was probably done drafting in the 2nd round. Knowing I had the 3.09 I thought I’d have a good chance to grab QB Howell at that spot or, add one more RB like Allgeier or Davis-Price (since I owned Sermon).
The third round opens up and Howell goes first at 3.01. Isn’t that something. at 3.03 Allgeier is off the board. 3.05 sees Davis-Price drop too. All three guys I had targeted – poof. Gone, like a fart in the wind. It’s at this point I spot another good value on the board. I don’t go until 3.09 but my local grocery store will tell you I’m a sucker for a good deal or a discount. Alec Pierce is still there? Wow. Seems like a pretty good deal to me. I think a little tidbit of news was dropped that same day that said he was going to be a starter and I just watched him get picked at 1.12 in my other draft so it seemed like Pierce would be a great value at that spot. I mean, if he drops to me at 3.09, which isn’t much further, he’s an even better value. But, I’m always up for a deal and I’m not sure he will drop. It’s Borderland Bombers on the clock and I look at their lineup. I see Raheem Mostert (2y/$13m). I also have Chase Edmonds and Sony Michel. Not to mention that bum Trey Sermon whose contract I’ve been trying to move since the ’22 season began (3y/$13m). So, I see an opportunity to get rid of Sermon and acquire Mostert. I don’t expect anything from either of them this year but having Mostert fill that spot over Sermon just makes sense since I have the other Miami RB’s. I have a good amount of future picks I had been stacking so for me to offer up a future 3rd and my 3.09 plus Sermon (Which reduces Borderland Bombers’ salary this season – something they needed help with) to get Mostert and that 3.06, I was very happy to do. I was subsequently happy to get NFL 2nd round talent, Alec Pierce, at 3.06. Even if I didn’t need another WR.
That’s how you do it. This team is going to win a championship in ’22. I can feel it. If not my team, then, definitely one of the other eleven teams, and I’d put money on that.
As we drift off to sleep during the fantasy doldrums of June and July I hope you enjoy dreaming of the fall season you’ve so carefully crafted for yourself. I know Kenneth Walker and a 1500-yard season will be prancing around in mine. You’ll hear from me again sometime in the preseason. Until then, feel free to send me a note or comment on any of my posts you’ll find on social media. Find me on Facebook and follow me on Twitter @RSOHighStakes.
~ The RSO High Stakes League Storyteller
