Positional Trade Value: Offense and IDP

Updated: June 23rd 2022

A topic that has always interested me is trading IDP assets for offensive ones (and vice versa). Because let’s be honest, the best kind of fantasy football is a league with both offense and defense. However, no one has genuinely mastered league scoring that is perfect and balanced across all positions. If the scoring is, inconsistent at best, how do we determine when a trade makes sense or is “fair”? When I want to break these IDP/offensive trades down, I want to have a strong grasp of what the value of each position is within the context of my whole league (duh!) and the tiers within those. What is the ability or likelihood you can replace that position (via waivers or rookies)? Lastly, how long do positions generally maintain their value?

Let’s talk through this process and hopefully set you up with a thought process to help with those trades!

First, how big is your league, on average leagues commonly range from 10-12 teams but can obviously go way beyond this, but we will use a 12-team league for this discussion. Next, what does your starting roster composition look like, we will assume a 3-3-3 for starting IDP (DLs, LBs, DBs) and a Superflex offense, with 2 RB, 3 WR, TE, Flex. The next piece for your league understanding is the scoring tiers you for each of these positions. See below for a sample scoring of a league I have played in (it’s a tackle-heavy format, so only use the numbers as hypothetical for this discussion).

What is this showing us? The average points scored of the first 12 (tier 1), second 12 (tier 2) and so on for each position group. I recommend doing this at least once a year if you can get the data from your platform to help you better understand the general positional value in your leagues (especially if you play in multiple leagues with varying scoring settings). Knowing this arms with you a baseline to say, “Hey! An LB1 in my league scores roughly the same as a WR1 in my league” and so on across all the different groupings. Now I got you thinking, “Dang! That was easy!”

But hold up my friend, because we aren’t done yet. WRs can very easily be our apples and LBs can very easily be our oranges… and I have been told not to compare those things to each other. However, if we add some additional context and understanding, we can get them a lot closer in understanding. And the steps to getting there, are our next two things. The repeatability of success at a position group and the replaceability of a player from a positional group. Let’s take a quick look at even just the last two years at each level of the defense to see consistency from year-to-year.

So what does this mean here? In the DL position group, we saw 17 of 2020’s top 36 performers, not even get back into the top 36 the following year. For the LB position group, we saw this number hit 20 and for the DB position group it was 22. Now, a handful in each group is due to injury (which we see in every position in the NFL), but you can only attribute maybe 15-20% of turnover due to that. And we are not looking at a super high bar to try and achieve either with the top 36 for each group. And if you were to expand this exercise out to more years, you would continue to see the same situation.

It is worth noting though, that the ones that ARE able to repeat top 36 success year-over-year have a stark talent gap over a large amount of the ones we see on the lists above, missing out on repeated success. There are obviously exceptions to this observation, but I would say it is a safe assumption when evaluating talent. But this does give us a bit of a better understanding that value sustainable value does tend to flow DL >> LB >> DB in the general sense.

As for the other side of the coin, the offensive skill positions (which I leave TE out of, because it generally has its top 3-4 and then fluctuates like crazy beyond that year-to-year) we take a look at how this breaks down for QB, RB, and WR.

We see a little less volatility year-to-year across these positions than we do in the IDP space with 7 out of 24 not repeating at the QB spot. 17 out of 36 for running backs. Then 14 out of 36 for WR.

As for our last piece of information, what does it look like when you try to replace these positions with rookie performers? Some quick looks back at the last few years show us that there are performers (some of them very high-end, thanks Justin Jefferson and Ja’Marr Chase) but also some solid fantasy contributors for your lineups as well. What I looked at was the last two draft classes and saw how many rookies (or 2nd year from 2020 class) that had to a top performance (24 for QB, 36 for others). Because if you are going to make a trade, can you use existing draft capital or DB obtained in the trade to replace your expected performance of that player?

Looking at QBs, we saw 3 top-24 performances between 2020 and 2021.
RBs was 10 top-36 performances.
WRs was 11 top-36 performances.
DLs was 1 top-36 performance.
LBs was 4 top-36 performances.
DBs was 5 top-36 performances.

This gives us an idea of where we can potentially find the most value within rookie draft picks and those rookie contracts to try and replace talent lost or given away / obtained in trades. Offense clearly seems to be the spot to find immediate impact for your roster, specifically at the RB/WR positions. There is value to be found on the IDP side for sure, but replacing that in the rookie draft might be a little trickier.

I know this is a lot of information when considering trading pieces, but having this baseline understanding should give an initial comfort level when considering trading across different positions, most specifically, how does an IDP asset compare or stack up against an offensive one in terms of pre-trade and post-trade. Additionally, the age of the player has a significant role as well, but I didn’t dive into that factor as most likely that is potentially considered in since on our favorite platform, Reality Sports Online, you are making smart contracts anyway!

Hoping this helps you make it through the minefield that is off-season trading! Happy trading everyone!

More Analysis by Jake

Looking Forward: Expectations for the NFL Salary Cap

Updated: June 23rd 2022

Covid issues created unique salary cap problems for the NFL following the 2020 season.  The NFL salary cap unexpectedly dropped substantially after significant NFL revenue losses in 2020.  The article details a brief history of recent cap progression to the current state and what we can expect in the future.  The writing also examines how Reality Sports Online GMs may take advantage of the changing cap.

What happened?

Many teams played with near-empty stadiums primarily due to state Covid restrictions drastically reducing ticket and game day revenue while also seeing TV ratings dip in 2020.  This resulted in the NFL losing approximately $3 to $4 billion in revenue that season.  The NFL collective bargaining agreement (CBA) dictated those losses applied to the following year’s salary cap which would have resulted in the cap dropping by about $70 to $80 million in 2021.  NFL owners and the NFL Players Association, however, came to an agreement in which those losses would be spread out over a three year period instead of the single year.  In effect, the NFL would have three seasons of relatively modest below-market salary caps versus one year with a massive salary cap reduction.  This move mitigated potentially disastrous team salary cap problems throughout the league and kept players from seeing drastic salary reduction in 2021.

What does the Salary Cap look like going forward?

The NFL salary cap averaged about 7% annual growth in the seven years before the 2021 season.  The 2020 CBA increased player revenue shares to 48%+ in 2021 and going forward while an anticipated new TV deal was also expected to raise revenue significantly.   An 8.5% annual growth in the NFL salary cap for the near-term future was a reasonable projection prior to the 2020 season.  The new TV contract, sports betting deals, and potential international expansion may result in even bigger increases.

The chart below displays some of the effects on expectations to the salary cap due to the decreased revenues of 2021 and projections going forward using growth estimates stated above.  The NFL salary cap decreased from $198.2 million in 2020 to $182.5 million in 2021.  While this was only about a $16 million cap decrease, it also probably translated to approximately $30 or $35 million less cap space than NFL teams were planning for before 2020.  The 2022 cap is set to grow a hearty 14% from 2021 but the cap will still be far below what was expected previously.  2023 will show much the same.  These cap decreases have had real NFL consequences, particularly for those teams who were already up against the cap and essentially borrowing against future cap to pay for current player production.  New Orleans and Dallas, for example, were forced to trade individuals (Amari Cooper) for little compensation or allow players to hit free agency (Terron Armstead) they would have preferred to keep if not for cap restraints.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Actual and Projected NFL Salary Cap 2020-2025

Things get back to normal in 2024, in terms of the salary cap, as the 2020 revenue losses will have been fully accounted for after the 2023 season.  One consequence of this is that 2024 should see an enormous spike in the league salary cap with $40 to $50 million cap increases possible depending on further adjustments.  We have already seen teams calibrating for this reality by heavily back-loading contracts (more than normal) and increasing the usage of “dummy” contract years (items such as voided years at the end of the contract in which the player won’t actually play on the contract but serves as a way to extend cap accounting into the future).

The Los Angeles Rams provide a nice example of this.  Many question how the Rams keep paying big money extensions to players on the team.  They are simply using the rules of cap accounting and taking into account the expected explosion in future team cap.  Matthew Stafford’s contract contains cap hits of just $13.5 million and $20 million in 2022 and 2023, respectively, then balloons to about $50 million per year in future seasons.  Aaron Donald’s new contract added multiple voided years at the end of the deal to help spread his signing bonus over.

What this means for Reality Sports Online GMs

As most Reality Sports Online (RSO) GMs know, RSO mirrors the NFL salary cap in that the NFL salary cap equals the RSO salary cap.  This means we can also expect the RSO salary cap to also dramatically increase over the next few seasons.  The previous Salary Cap Chart from above shows expected cap growth rates of 11% (2023), 19% (2024), and 8.5% (2025 and forward).  Let us see how this compares to RSO contracts.  RSO multi-year deals distribute the total value of a contract based on the number of years resulting in small salary escalations (between 6% and 10%) in each subsequent year.  The four-year contract example from RSO is detailed below starting in 2022 with expected salary cap figures from our previous estimates.

Reality Sports Online Example Contract (4 year / $100 million total value)

“Expected Cap % “is the RSO salary divided by the expected cap. Most notably, compare the RSO contract salary growth rates with the expected cap growth rates above. The NFL Salary cap shows much higher expected growth than the contract salaries. The RSO example contract salary displays a 27% growth rate from year one to four while the salary cap is expected to rise by 43 percent during that period. This results in salaries taking a smaller portion of the expected total cap during the later contract years. In other words, the real expected yearly value of the RSO contract rises as the contract progresses.

The biggest takeaway for RSO GMs is that they should be more willing to invest in long-term contracts than ever before. Acquiring new multi-year deals in free agency and trading expiring contracts for existing long-term contracts should be a strategy focus for many teams. Hits on locked multi-year contract deals could become more valuable with time and misses make for more palatable release candidates with less cap consequences.


Bio: Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics. He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time. Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

More Analysis by Bernard Faller

Inaugural High Stakes league ’22 update 2

Updated: June 4th 2022

After an emotional or intense experience, you’re likely to say some things differently than you would after you cool down from your climax, think about things, and come back with a rational approach instead of an emotional one.  But even after a couple of weeks I still have to ask, was your rookie draft as good for you as it was for me? <Takes final puff of his smoke and flicks it>

A great draft starts with a great game plan.  You have to set yourself up for success.  But, as we all know, even the best-laid plans can turn into an Amber Heard turd on Johnny Depp’s pillow quicker than you can snort a line of cocaine.  Still, I believe when you enter with a plan and things start to go awry, you can adapt better when you have an end game to look at.  It’s like seeing a whole map with multiple routes that will get you to the finish.  Sure, there is the optimal way.  That’s the one you build your plan around.  Then a tanker explodes on the toll road so you look at your map and find the best alternate route at that time of day.  With no map or plan, you’re just off on a Sunday drive.  I’ve had four RSO rookie drafts this year and this one was one of my first so a plan was important.  By the time my other drafts started a week later, I had a really good idea of landing spots for players.  Still, there was one draft where an early run on mid-tier RB’s surprised me and left me in a different position than I expected to be in.  The alternate route got me there, albeit with a couple of lower-tiered guys than I expected.  However, I finished the High Stakes league draft mostly happy as the majority of it went according to plan.

As we explore this rookie draft the details of our league are important to understand each team’s approach.  This is a Superflex PPR league that has a full starting lineup that looks like this: QB, RB, RB, WR, WR, TE, RB/WR/TE, RB/WR/TE, QB/RB/WR/TE.  That’s a total of 9 starting spots along with 13 bench spots and an additional four IR spots.  So, the rosters go deep enough to call us spelunkers.

First, let me give some general notes and thoughts.

  • 7 trades during this draft.  There are multiple times leading up to the draft to make trades but ever since RSO introduced the slow draft with trading some years ago, it has taken drafting, and draft values, to another level.  The ability to trade into a position to “grab your guy”  or even just to grab a player of value who has fallen too far, enables us to pinpoint our timing while allowing the other owner to benefit from not seeing the value in the same pick.  It’s a great feature that makes you feel like Kevin Costner in Draft Day.
  • QB’s went too early.  That’s just an opinion.  I did my homework before this draft and expected something much different to play out.  Let me explain why and feel free to comment on my social media whether you think it was a logical approach – We only had one rookie draft before this year.  It’s our third year in the league but we didn’t have a rookie draft in year one.  So, to get an idea of where the QB values lie we have to look at last year’s draft.  TLaw at 1.01.  Fields at 1.03.  Lance at 1.07.  Zach Wilson 1.09.  Mac Jones, the 15th pick in the NFL draft, went at 2.02 in our draft.  Doesn’t it seem reasonable to expect Pickett, an NFL 20th draft pick, to be available at 2.02 this year?  Well, it wasn’t.  Pickett was snatched at 1.10.  Last year, 3rd round NFL draft pick Mond was picked at 2.12, 2nd round NFL draft pick Trask was picked at 3.02, and 3rd round NFL draft pick Davis Mills was picked at 3.03.  Doesn’t it seem reasonable that this year’s tier trio of Willis, Ridder, and Corral would go near the end of the 2nd round and possibly well into the 3rd round of our draft?  I think it sounds very reasonable, however, all three were gone by 2.06.  That’s barely behind Pickett.  Even NFL 5th rounder and big-time chicken nuggies fan, Sam Howell, got some early 3rd round love at 3.01.  A lack of options changed the landscape for draft expectations this year.  Plus, individual needs can also affect these outcomes.  Clearly, it’ll be good for me to include additional data sets for my homework next year.  Fact is, if you didn’t reach a little this year, you didn’t get a QB.
  • The Wendell Takeover Project made the first big move of the draft in a rather straight-up trade consisting of their ’23 first for this year’s 1.06.  Wendell lost their only RB in McCaffrey due to a bloated contract of around $53m that needed cut to get cap compliant at the deadline, three days before the draft.  This left them hungry for a RB so they made their move to grab the polarizing prospect, James Cook.  With only so many upper-tier prospects at RB this year, Cook was the cheapest and this is a PPR league, after all, which is where he should shine.  Wendell next used their 2nd round pick to grab Rachaad White.  Then, about 10 days after the draft ended, they moved DK Metcalf in a deal to acquire Josh Jacobs and Kenyan Drake, completing a full revamp of the RB position this offseason.
  • Last year’s champ, “The Don” Piccolo, found a lot of value later in the ’21 rookie draft with picks 1.12 (Waddle), 2.02 (Mac Jones), 2.08 (Gainwell), 2.10 (Amon-Ra), and 3.05 (Chuba).  Almost every one of those names played a role in this squad taking home the title and at least three of those names provided an absolute massive value.  “The Don” entered this ’22 draft in pretty much the same position with no 1st round picks and many 2nd and 3rd round picks.  Can they make the magic happen again?  If last year is any indication, keep your eyes on these prospects that “The Don” drafted: (Traded up to 2.01) Skyy Moore, (2.06) Malik Willis, (2.12) David Bell, (3.04) Wan’Dale Robinson, and (3.12) Justyn Ross.
  • Speaking of last year, we have replaced one owner.  The new owner now sports the team name Ballin on a Budget.  I think this owner did most of his damage before and after the draft.  Regardless, it’s hard to recognize this team from the one they took over in March.  Just a completely new look.  This new look and new owner came to the draft with a new and interesting approach as well.  Only two draft picks, late in round 2, and they used them both on TE’s.  Zach Ertz looks to be their number one but Tre McBride and Greg Dulcich will get to develop for one year behind him.  McBride also provides a handcuff scenario for Ertz.
  • Last year’s runner-up, XFL Stars, didn’t have much faith in this draft class.  They traded away all their picks except the 1.03.  It wasn’t like they didn’t try to trade that one away either but they apparently got no worthwhile bites and had to settle for Drake London.  I’m thinking about offering a ham sandwich for London to see where his value is with this owner.

Now, for a few thoughts from my perspective as the draft progressed.  Going into this draft I didn’t feel like I needed much help at WR.  Although, I lack an elite at the position.  No help is needed at TE.  RB was my biggest need – I wanted to stock up here.  And I could use a QB, but I wasn’t as desperate for one.  Shortly before the draft, I acquired Jordan love (2yrs/$3m) and Cole Kmet (1yr/$1.5m) for the 2.03 pick.  I already have Aaron Rodgers through ’23 and Jameis through ’24 so Love gives me a handcuff.  Plus, on the outside chance he gets traded into a better situation, maybe I get a starter out of the deal.  So, I’ve got the 1.02, 1.12, 2.02, and 3.09.  The plan?  RB at 1.02 of course.  A 2nd RB with one of my next two picks and one pick for wiggle room where I don’t end up with a RB necessarily – I can grab a WR but I’m hoping to get a QB, or a RB, if not.

The draft opens and Big Tings is on the clock.  They announce one last check on the room to see if there is any interest in trading up for the pick and they get no love.  Smart move to ask but they take the obvious choice in Breece Hall.  When it gets to me I don’t hesitate long.  I need a RB here and have to take Walker.  Now to watch the WR’s take over like they did in the NFL draft.  The first pick that affected me was Kenny Pickett at 1.10.  I wasn’t totally shocked but was really hoping he would fall to me at 1.12.  I also had dreams that maybe James Cook would fall this far too but no such luck as Wendell snatched him at 1.06.  Now, I’m eyeballing that second tier of RB’s.  I have them ordered but see them all similarly.  It gets to me at 1.12 and all five are still on the board so I decide I can trade back.  I have the 2.02 coming up also so I feel comfortable moving back from 1.12, up to five spots or so. I find my trade partner in the DC Guardians who owns exactly that 2.05 spot.  They throw in a ’23 2nd rounder and we have ourselves a deal!  They grab Zamir White, the first of those second-tier RB’s, and that completes round one.

The draft is back to me at 2.02.  Plus, I have the 2.05 coming up.  Four of those RB’s are left.  I don’t need a WR here and I think it’s too early to draft one of those second-tier QB’s.  I was ok with any of the RB’s I would end up with at 2.05 now as well.  I consider trading back again but keep looking at the trade board and WR, Jahan Dotson keeps looking back at me.  He’s clearly the last of the upper tier of WR’s.  I don’t need one but I decide that because he’s a first-round NFL talent that he has the potential to turn into my missing elite WR.  We’ll see.  But, I just couldn’t pass up the value of getting him at the 2.02.  After that, I was certain those RB’s would start going.  To my surprise, the next two picks were QB’s Ridder and Corral and it’s back to me at 2.05.  Those QB’s really threw me off – I had them ranked 20th plus.  I didn’t want to miss out on a QB but I felt it was a reach right here and stuck with my rankings.  I also had Willis ranked lower in this league as I wanted a QB who would have a better chance of contributing this year.  I explored some trade options but didn’t want to go back too far and I couldn’t get any bites near the positions I wanted.  Looks like I’ll just have to take a RB here.  Like at QB, I preferred a RB who would have the best chance to contribute the most this year.  I felt that guy was Dameon Pierce.  At this point, I felt I reached my objective of improving my RB’s for this season and I resigned to the fact that I was probably done drafting in the 2nd round.  Knowing I had the 3.09 I thought I’d have a good chance to grab QB Howell at that spot or, add one more RB like Allgeier or Davis-Price (since I owned Sermon).

The third round opens up and Howell goes first at 3.01.  Isn’t that something.  at 3.03 Allgeier is off the board.  3.05 sees Davis-Price drop too.  All three guys I had targeted – poof.  Gone, like a fart in the wind.  It’s at this point I spot another good value on the board.  I don’t go until 3.09 but my local grocery store will tell you I’m a sucker for a good deal or a discount.  Alec Pierce is still there?  Wow.  Seems like a pretty good deal to me.  I think a little tidbit of news was dropped that same day that said he was going to be a starter and I just watched him get picked at 1.12 in my other draft so it seemed like Pierce would be a great value at that spot.  I mean, if he drops to me at 3.09, which isn’t much further, he’s an even better value.  But, I’m always up for a deal and I’m not sure he will drop.  It’s Borderland Bombers on the clock and I look at their lineup.  I see Raheem Mostert (2y/$13m).  I also have Chase Edmonds and Sony Michel.  Not to mention that bum Trey Sermon whose contract I’ve been trying to move since the ’22 season began (3y/$13m).  So, I see an opportunity to get rid of Sermon and acquire Mostert.  I don’t expect anything from either of them this year but having Mostert fill that spot over Sermon just makes sense since I have the other Miami RB’s.  I have a good amount of future picks I had been stacking so for me to offer up a future 3rd and my 3.09 plus Sermon (Which reduces Borderland Bombers’ salary this season – something they needed help with) to get Mostert and that 3.06, I was very happy to do.  I was subsequently happy to get NFL 2nd round talent, Alec Pierce, at 3.06.  Even if I didn’t need another WR.

That’s how you do it.  This team is going to win a championship in ’22.  I can feel it.  If not my team, then, definitely one of the other eleven teams, and I’d put money on that.

As we drift off to sleep during the fantasy doldrums of June and July I hope you enjoy dreaming of the fall season you’ve so carefully crafted for yourself.  I know Kenneth Walker and a 1500-yard season will be prancing around in mine.  You’ll hear from me again sometime in the preseason.  Until then, feel free to send me a note or comment on any of my posts you’ll find on social media.  Find me on Facebook and follow me on Twitter @RSOHighStakes.


 

~ The RSO High Stakes League Storyteller

More Analysis by Matt Russell