Week 4 Street FA Report

Reply

By Nick Andrews

Updated: September 27th 2022

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer one (1) player that is owned in <25% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

Zay Jones, WR, JAX (Owned 33%)

Week 3: 10 Rec/85 yards, 1 TD

Is Jacksonville good now? A thorough beating of Super Bowl contending LA Chargers may suggest that simply adding by subtracting Urban Meyer really has the Jaguars trending more towards where we hoped year two of the Trevor Lawrence experience would be. As Lawrence’s tide raises all ships, so too should Jay Jones’ ownership be much higher than one-third of leagues. Jones is averaging eight (8) targets and six (6) catches per game thus far and is tied for WR24 in PPR scoring. Simply put, Jones is putting up consistent WR2 production with a WR3 floor and he should not only be rostered but also started in most leagues going forward.

Suggested Bid: $5,000,000 – $8,000,000

RB Adds

Samaje Perine, RB, CIN (Owned 39%)

Week 3: 9 Car/47 yards, 2 Rec/14 yards, 1 TD

Every week a starting running back gets nicked up and then the questions about their availability and usage swirls for a couple weeks following. In week 3 Joe Mixon missed time with an ankle injury and the Bengals have a short week to turn around for Thursday Night Football. Mixon is expected to be “okay” but it’s always a smart plan to add the injured running backs’ backup a week early just in case. Samaje Perine has been the clear #2 behind Mixon and would see a full workload in his absence. Watch the news regarding Mixon this week.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

WR Add

Josh Reynolds, WR, DET (Owned 15%)

Week 3: 6 Rec/96 yards

Every year I seem to find at least one week where I am allowed to recommend my favorite underdog wide receiver, Josh Reynolds. With Amon-Ra St. Brown coming on the scene last year and the Lions signing DJ Chark, I was not sure if the streak would continue. But Reynolds saw additional action last week due to St. Brown’s injury and made the most of it with six (6) receptions. St. Brown’s injury is not expected to be long but his immediate status is in question which leaves a window of a few weeks that Reynolds could be a low-ranking flex play. The Lions are surprisingly one of the most consistent scoring offenses in the league so both targets and scoring opportunities are readily available for Reynolds if called upon.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

TE Add

Daniel Bellinger, TE, NYG (Owned 26.5%)

Week 3: 4 Rec/40 yards

I love the prospect of Jelani Woods but do not chase the tight end who scores two (2) touchdowns on just 16 snaps. Instead, look to add Daniel Bellinger who continued to look good in the first month of his rookie campaign and who saw five (5) targets on Monday Night Football. The other Giants’ tight ends are being used sparingly through the first three (3) games and even less in the passing game. With Sterling Shepard out for the season will the coaching staff move more to include Kenny Golladay in the 3WR sets they have been running or will they look to use more I-Formation giving Bellinger more route participation? Based on Golladay’s usage over the first three (3) weeks I would think that Bellinger, or our sleeper add, have a better shot at seeing an increase in targets than Golladay.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Sleeper Add (<25%)

Richie James, WR, NYG (Owned 18%)

Week 3: 4 Rec/36 yards

Sterling Shepard went down on the last play of the game with a freak knee injury that has been confirmed as season-ending. In his absence the expected new WR1 in New York might just be Richie James who has been a surprise thus far in terms of his production. James has far and away been the second most targeted receiver behind Shepard so his production floor should increase from this point on. The Giants are still a limited offense so there are many WR2s in other offenses I would prioritize over James but any team’s first option at receiver needs to be rostered in more than 20 percent of leagues. James will have several spot starts in the flex as we head into bye weeks this season.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

Week 12 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 11 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 9 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 8 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 7 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 6 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 5 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

Week 4 Street FA Report

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that […]

IDP Start/Sit: Week 3

Reply

By Jake

Updated: September 24th 2022

Welcome to week 3! Another fun week of fantasy football, but more fun if you are living that IDP fantasy life! One more week of data, a week to help establish real/true trends, and more film to interpret for our next set of decisions. As always, a reminder of what this article is here for,is to help you identify those truly start-worthy players who might be more on the fringe of the 2nd or 3rd or even 4th tier of their IDP position groups (based on FantasyPros weekly rankings) but have the right situation to be a start-able asset for each given week (or maybe more!). The layout of this series will focus on DL, LB, and DB position groups, however, I will try to get some nuggets in there for those “True Position” leagues that get down with DT and CB requirements. Additionally, where I can find the long-term value, we will also call that out to help you with some of that season-long planning.

As a quick refresher too, here were week two’s recommendations and how the “advice” went. Happy with my all sits, the Titans defense disappointed for me this week. Expected greater work from the key players in that front 7.
DL:
Start: Jeffery Simmons (1 PD)

Sit: Khalil Mack (.5 sack, 1 solo, 1 assist)

LB:

Start: David Long Jr. (1 solo, 1 assist)

Sit (Sell): Kamu Grugier-Hill (3 solo, 2 assist)

DB:
Start: Kyler Gordon (3 solos, 3 assist, 1 PD)

Sit: Jevon Holland (2 solos, 8 return yards)

START: Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs, DL33

The new look Kansas City Chiefs are looking strong at 2-0 and a large part of this is thanks to the play of their defense as well. And at the core of the front 7 is Chris Jones, delivering strong performances for his team and for IDP fantasy. As such, he is a strong value start at DL33 from Fantasy Pros IDP week 3 rankings. He is checking those preliminary boxes for us in utilization (70%+ snap count through 2 weeks) and showing a top-end PFF pass-rush grade of 90+ as well.

What does this mean for week 3’s matchup? The Chiefs travel to Indianapolis and they struggled against a decent unit last week in the Jaguars and the Colts defense has looked weak so far this year and the Chiefs offense could turn this into a negative game script very quickly. Which means this front 7 can really pin its ears back and get after a very immobile Matt Ryan. Pair this with a Colts offensive line that has been bottom half of the league so far this year with Jones’ 17% pressure rate, we have a very strong path for Jones to continue adding pressure and likely converting a sack or two!

Jones is an easy DL2 this week and a must start in DT required leagues.

SIT: Marcus Davenport, New Orleans Saints, DL23

Marcus Davenport came on strong at the end of 2021 and was really starting to get people to believe in his 1st round draft capital and what he could be for the Saints as a premier edge rusher as Cameron Jordan is reaching the end of his career. However, his start to this season has been rather pedestrian, at best. Davenport has had slightly above average snap counts at around 60% of his snaps but he has delivered little excitement in the pass-rush department with a 6% pressure rate! He would need to be converting almost every pressure at that rate to be delivering consistent IDP value.

With a rough start, week 3 brings in the Carolina Panthers and some would say this would be the salve to what ails Davenport. However, I am predicting a shift in the Panthers focus and getting CMC more involved as he has shown the ability to be involved and gain further confidence in his ability to stay on the field. Along with the fact that many believe Matt Rhule is playing for his job at this point, and CMC sounds like a better bet than Baker Mayfield, in one man’s humble opinion. And if this is the case, Davenport has struggled to deliver in the run game as well this year, leading to just an overall disappointing IDP week.

START: Fred Warner, San Francisco 49ers, LB23

Fred Warner has been an IDP stalwart for the last 4 seasons since coming into the league. Now, after two slow weeks to start his 2022 campaign, consensus ranks has him at LB23 this week! The 49ers have run a crazy low number of plays on defense at 53.5 per game over the last two weeks. Those are numbers that just aren’t realistic to last over the entirety of the season. On a 17 game pace, that would leave him almost 100 snaps lower than some of his 16 game seasons in terms of total snaps played. He has had some below average tackle efficiency which can be expected to happen at times, so some positive regression there, with increased overall snaps means stronger numbers are very likely in the future for Warner.

The Broncos have average around 65 snaps per game as an offense as well, so this should be a return to the norm for the 49ers defense and Warner is an asset who has proven year in and year out that he can deliver, just look at this IDP resume:

79+ solo tackles every year
115+ total tackles every year
22+ TFLs over the last 4 years
12 combined FF/FR over the last 4 years

All this to say, if anyone is out on Warner, buy the dip and ride the wave of success that should follow shortly after.

SIT: Jerome Baker, Miami Dolphins, LB27

Jerome Baker is getting full 100% snap count which is not always easy to find with any LB, so if he is getting that kind of usage, why would we want to be looking at sitting him them? Alignment. Week 1 he spent about 17% of his snaps on the defensive line rushing the passer and in week 2, that jumped way up to 53%. This utilization is a scary trend for Baker and if it continues or stays anywhere near that 50%. This has already shown up in his first two weeks performance with 7 total tackles between both and also only delivered 1 total pressure with all these pass rush attempts. This is a very-low 6% pressure rate and he hasn’t converted anything into further IDP production either.

Now for week 3, we see the Dolphins take on the Buffalo Bills and this is not the team a pass rushing LB is going to right their ship. Baker might correct course here soon, but this week is not the one to do. With only 3 sacks allowed in the first two games, that is a big ask for Baker to be the one to come up with it with previous lack of success.

START: Terrell Edmunds, Pittsburgh Steelers, DB34

Terrell Edmunds is easily overshadowed by the other safety in Pittsburgh in Minkah Fitzpatrick. Minkah is out there breaking all logic in how deep safeties have historically produced IDP with crazy tackle numbers giving safe weekly floors with high-level play-making that delivers week winning performances. While all this is happening, Edmunds is quietly delivering success while getting the ideal utilization for a safety. He has gotten 100% of the defensive snaps while also playing 58% of his snaps inside the sweet spot!!!

With a tough divisional matchup in the Cleveland Browns which have been low-scoring games, and you have seen Cleveland continue to rely on their running game. With that consideration, these sweet spot snaps will become even more valuable. Edmunds is a strong DB2 this week and might be a candidate to watch for season-long value as well.

SIT: Jonathan Owners, Houston Texans, DB26

Jonathan Owners has been a pleasant surprise to start this season. However, I am guessing most people have not played him much this season unless in a super deep league. He has put up an astounding 25 tackles through the first two games as well as a pass defensed. This is super impressive and why wouldn’t we want this in our lineup?!? Because he has played a ludicrous 81 snaps per game so far this year! OK, well, the Texans defense stinks, right? So they will keep getting more snaps, right? Enter the Chicago Bears. They have thrown 28 passes through 2 games this year and run the 2nd least amount of plays in 97 total plays.

Something has to give in this situation, and Jonathan Owens has played solidly with PFF grades around 63 for the season, but if I had to pick a side, I would lean away from the lack of previous production from Owens and the inflated opportunities about to come crashing back down this week against the Bears.

More Analysis by Jake

IDP Start/Sit: Week 17

This is it. Championship week. Or third-place game. Or consolation bracket time. It doesn’t matter! You’re here and you […]

IDP Start/Sit: Week 16

Hello and welcome to all you first-round bye people and champions of the first round. With only two weeks […]

IDP Start/Sit: Week 15

Well, congratulations. You are reading this because you have made it to your fantasy football playoffs! Or you are […]

IDP Start/Sit: Week 14

This is it. This is our last push for the playoffs (hopefully you wonderful readers have already locked that up […]

IDP Start/Sit: Week 13

Welcome to week 13, our penultimate matchup before the playoffs! Let’s get those lineups ready again as we secure […]

IDP Start/Sit: Week 12

The goods were good… the bads were misses. With Thanksgiving upon us this week, let’s be thankful for our […]

IDP Start/Sit: Week 11

IDP Start/Sit: Week 11 Week 10 was not our best outcome of the season with only 2 good picks, […]

IDP Start/Sit: Week 10

Week 10 is upon, we are halfway through the NFL season and a bit further through our fantasy seasons. […]

Week 3 Street FA Report

Reply

By Nick Andrews

Updated: September 20th 2022

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer one (1) player that is owned in <25% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

Jimmy Garoppolo, QB, SF (Owned 40%)

Week 2: 13/21 154 yards, 1 TD, 4 Car/5 yards, 1 TD

Losing a QB for the season often is the death-nail for most franchises and the production of fantasy value for the skill positions around the replacement is often diminished. Luckily, for the 49ers Jimmy Garoppolo knows the system and has worked with the offense for many years already. If Garoppolo is somehow still available in superflex leagues he is the must add this week and a significant amount of the remaining cap space should be allocated to acquiring him. Even in one (1) QB leagues Garoppolo offers solid QB2 weekly production with QB1 upside under the right conditions.

Suggested Bid: $3-5,000,000 (1 QB) / 70-90% remaining cap space (2QB/SF)

RB Adds

Eno Benjamin, RB, ARI, (Owned 65%)

Week 2: 8 Car/31 yards, 3 Rec/20 yards

Darrel Williams, RB, ARI (Owned 39%)

8 Car/59 yards, 1 TD, 2 Rec/3 yards

James Connor is apparently okay after missing time in week 2 with an injury but those who are always looking ahead to stash running backs with potential should now be considering both Eno Benjamin and Darrel Williams. In Connor’s absence, the two had nearly identical snap counts, slightly leaning towards Williams (39%:36%). WIlliams also did most of the work around the goal line while Benjamin was featured more on passing downs. In the case of Connor needing to miss more time or a new injury was to creep up, both would provide moderate fantasy upside.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

WR Add

Sterling Shepard, WR, NYG (Owned 54%)

Week 2: 6 Rec/34 yards

Two (2) weeks into the Giants’ season and it is clear that Sterling Shepard is the top option and should be rostered in all but the shallowest of leagues. He has fourteen (14) targets in two (2) games, tied for 25th and other than Saquon Barkley is the only fantasy option in that offense right now. The Giants’ offense is not going to put up many 30-point outings which will limit Shepard’s likelihood to provide high-end production, but a consistent WR4 for the season is not out of the question. Not bad for a player that had serious questions about whether he would bounce back at all from his injury at the end of last season.

Suggested Bid: $1,500,000

TE Add

Hayden Hurst, TE, CIN (Owned 56%)

Week 2: 5 Rec/24 yards

After being outshined by Mark Andrews in Baltimore and then replaced by Kyle Pitts in Atlanta it appears that Hayden Hurst has finally gained some appreciation for his talent by his new coaches in Cincinnati. Hurst is tied for 6th in targets (15) and tied for 5th in receptions (10) among tight ends through two weeks. The Bengals’ offense should be high scoring for much of the season providing many opportunities for production at a position that often relies on touchdown upside only. If owners are not rolling out one of the big five in their tight end position each week, consider Hurst as your weekly plug-n-play option.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Sleeper Add (<25%)

Shi Smith, WR, CAR (Owned 4.5%)

Week 2: 1 Rec/2 yards

Shi Smith was garnering praise throughout training camp from the coach staff and their respect has been shown thus far through two (2) games as he has operated as the third receiver head and shoulders above the other wide receivers in Carolina. He has also played a heavy majority of snaps despite being behind DJ Moore and Robbie Anderson which has increased his opportunities with nine (9) targets. He has not converted those targets in much fantasy production but our practice squad slots are a great place to stash talent for potential breakout in the coming weeks.

Suggested Bid: $100,000 (PS) / $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews