IDP Start/Sit: Week 13

Updated: November 29th 2023

 

Welcome to week 13, our penultimate matchup before the playoffs! Let’s get those lineups ready again as we secure our first-round byes, or our spots in the playoff, or at the very least, play spoiler to those still in it!

Week 12 Recap

DL:

Start: Will Anderson Jr. (2 solos, 2 assists, TFL) 👎

Sit: Shaquil Barrett (3 solos, assist) 👍

LB:

Start: Ivan Pace Jr. (7 solos, 2 assists, sack, TFL, QB hit) 👍

Sit: Frankie Luvu (Solo, assist) 👎

DB:

Start: Jonathan Owens (8 solos, 4 assists, TFL, FR, Def TD) 👍

Sit: Jevon Holland (5 solos, INT, PD, Def TD) 👎

Week 13 Starts & Sits

START: Osa Odighizuwa, Dallas Cowboys, DL60 (DT18)

Osa Odighizuwa, he not only has a fun name to say, but he also has the production to get into our IDP lineups. This is especially true in week 13. Osa has had a great year in terms of his pass rush success. He has a pass-rush pressure rate of 13.65% and he has a pass-rush win rate of 24.25% on the season. These are outstanding numbers, however, they have not resulted fully in the sack numbers you’d expect. I’d expect to see him with close to 5 sacks versus the 3 he has produced year-to-date. Getting a matchup against the Seattle Seahawks should help with that this week. They are allowing pressures on 32% of all dropbacks while 15% of those are being converted into sacks. This is a strong matchup for Odighizuwa to add to his sack total this season.

SIT: Denico Autry, Tennessee Titans, DL40 (ED27)

Denico Autry has had a wonderful season. 8 sacks is a great season for most pass-rushers, but Autry is at that number through 11 games and obviously pushing for more. Autry has been an bit of an over-producer this season though, with those 8 sacks coming on 32 pressures. And as we looked at with Osa, we would expect his sack total to be closer to 5 sacks at this point. His pass-rush production numbers are solid, but not elite either that it would lead me to believe that he is a true outlier with 10.22% pass rush rate and a 15.0% pass rush win rate. This week, Autry gets a less than ideal matchup in the Indianapolis Colts who are allowing only a 23% pressure rate per dropback this season and only 7% of those pressures are converted into sacks. This is a week where Autry likely regresses back to the mean.

START: Jack Campbell, Detroit Lions, LB41

Jack Campbell has been an IDP rookie darling of mine since the draft cycles this off-season. Now, due to an unfortunate injury, he might get the full-time role I was hoping he’d have secured by this point. Either way, Campbell has been quietly delivering a respectable baseline for IDP production. He has 49 tackles at a 12.82% efficiency. This is very average, but for a first year player, that is a good baseline to be achieving already. He has added a handful of splash plays, too. Week 13 is a good matchup as well, heading to New Orleans Jack Campbell is facing a Saints offense that is providing an average of 19.2 tackles per game to the linebacker position. Even at an even split with Derrick Barnes, that is still likely to yield an 8 – 10 tackle floor for them and Campbell is should easily take advantage this week.

SIT: Markquese Bell, Dallas Cowboys, LB36

Markquese Bell has stepped up in his role with the injuries and uncertainty at linebacker this year for the Cowboys. Starting in week 6 we have seen snap percentages of 53%, 73%, 94%, 39%, 85%, and 77%. The numbers have been relatively consistent, but Rashaan Evans has slowly been seeing his integration and snaps increasing as well, even if smaller. But that reduction is coming at the extent of someone else at times, and it seems to be Bell. It also doesn’t help that they already have an established safety group of three as well in Kearse, Wilson, and Malik Hooker that limits Bell’s ability to stay on the field. Pair the snap count concerns with the Seattle Seahawks matchup this weekend in a team that is only yielding 14.7 tackles per game to the linebabcker position, I do not like Bell’s range of outcomes this week.

START: Jordan Battle, Cincinnati Bengals, DB32 (S28)

Rookie Jordan Battle is getting his opportunity this season due to injuries, but he has gone ahead and made the most of that. Filling in early two weeks ago and getting his frist fultime starting game, Battle quickly made the most of it with 19 total tackles. He projected as a strong tackling safety during the NFL draft process but has shown he can deliver that on the NFL field. While this is a small sample size, we love the production, but we also love the utilization. 58.26% of his snaps these last two weeks have come from the sweet spot alignments but his box utilization saw a jump from 18 snaps to 31 once after a week of preparing the defense with Battle known as the starter. Again, small sample sizes, but we are at the end of the season and we cannot wait several weeks to figure out some of these new roles and opportunities. But we can react to the information we have seen the teams already do. Battle should be a strong start while he maintains this role.

SIT: Richie Grant, Atlanta Falcons, DB25 (S23)

Richie Grants was a defensive back I had a lot of belief in coming into this season. Unfortunately, that has not been the case for his third season in the NFL. It has shown not only in his reduction in IDP production, but some of his worst PFF grades, especially is his overall defense and coverage grades. Most concerning though, is the last two weeks he has dipped below 100% snap percentage and this last week it was down to 75%! Up to this point, he has delivered slightly above average tackle efficiency, but if he isn’t producing outlier numbers and his utilization is going to drop, his IDP production becomes concerning on a week-to-week basis. Enter the New York Jets for this week, they are allowing the lowest numbers of tackles to opposing safeties at 9.9 per game.

 

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More Analysis by Jake

IDP Start/Sit: Week 12

Updated: November 23rd 2023

 

The goods were good… the bads were misses. With Thanksgiving upon us this week, let’s be thankful for our family, friends, and hopefully some great lineups this weekend!

Week 11 Recap

DL:

Start: Kyle Van Noy (2 solos, 1 TFLs, 1 QB hit. 1 sack) 👍

Sit: Montez Sweat (1 solo, 1 assist, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit, 1 sack) 👎

LB:

Start: Elandon Roberts (11 solos, 4 assists, 2 TFLs) 👍 – Great week AND 100% snap count!

Sit: De’Vondre Campbell (6 solos, 1 assists, 1 TFL) 👎 

DB:

Start: Kevin Byard (4 solos, 1 assist, TFL, 2 PDs) 👍

Sit: Jalen Pitre (4 solos, 2 assists, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit) 👎

Week 12 Starts & Sits

START: Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans, DL35 (ED28)

Will Anderson may not have the gaudy sack numbers so far this rookie campaign. He has three sacks through his first 10 games 32 tackles. But he has made his impact felt in games, look further than week 11 where he recorded a sack but also caused the pressure/hurry on the final play of the game that led to the incompletion on 4th down and sealed the Texans’ victory. He has been winning in his pass rush sets 22.0% of the time (27th among edge rushers) and has a 13.1% pass pressure rate. While this hasn’t create gaudy stats, this week’s matchup against the Jaguars is a plus matchup. Their pressure rate allowed is slightly above average at 25%, but the pressures they do allow are converted into sacks at the third highest rate at 19%. For a player who is winning his matchups consistently, this should be an ideal week for him to capitalize.

SIT: Shaquil Barrett, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, DL38 (ED30)

Shaquil Barrett has had a very nice season bouncing back from his Achilles injury. Through his 10 games this year he has delivered 4 sacks and 34 total tackles this season. His overall success in his pass rush sets though has not been as strong at a 14.9% rate. It is above average but not great, but he has delivered a strong 13.1% pass rush pressure rate. This split has given us some solid production, but the matchup this week against the Indianapolis Colts is not the best one if Barrett can’t win his matchups consistently. The Colts have the 5th lowest pressure rate allowed at 23% and the 3rd lowest conversion rate of those pressures into sacks at 8%. Barrett just hasn’t won enough and consistently in his sets to feel good about this week.

START: Ivan Pace, Minnesota Vikings, LB31

Ivan Pace was a draft darling for me, but going undrafted put a damper on that for sure. However, landing in Minnesota gave me hope and he showed up early in the season but saw those quickly fade as well. However, the injury to Jordan Hicks has reignited his opportunity and this week should be a week that continues to showcase Pace. In his last two games as a starter and seeing 50+ snaps he has compiled 15 total tackles (13.5% tackle efficiency) and a forced fumble. This week he gets the Chicago Bears whose tackles allowed to LBs this season have not been ideal, but with the return of Justin Fields, it has seen a nice jump up. And what better way to try and highlight Pace’s ability in a plus matchup against the Bears?

SIT: Frankie Luvu, Carolina Panthers, LB29

Frankie Luvu was an amazing revelation last season for IDP. He did it with a great floor in terms of tackle production (103 combined) but had the boosted upside of his pass rush (7 sacks). This year started off down that same exact path with 12 tackles and 4 sacks over just the first two weeks. Since then? 1 sack and 67 tackles. He has done a wonderful maintaining that tackle production and efficiency this year, however, outside of those first two weeks he has only produced 1 sack and this lack of pass-rush production aligns pretty closely with his switch to the Mike LB after seeing Shaq Thompson get injured. But isn’t his strong tackle floor enough to keep him in the top 30 LBs this week? In most cases, yes, but facing the Titans this week, they have one of the lower tackle productions allowed to the LB position which lowers Luvu’s floor overall. And if his pass rush upside is limited to none, and his tackle floor reduced, he is a fade for me this week.

START: Jonathan Owens, Green Bay Packers, DB31 (S25)

Jonathan Owens got a chance to be a starter in week 8 of this season, but it is how he has been utilized over these last three weeks and the results that have me excited for this week 12 matchup. Over the last three weeks, Owens has seen his sweet spot alignment jump to 53.47%! He has also piled up 20 combined tackles for 6.3 tackles per game. There is no reason for this usage and alignment to change this week which gives us great confidence in his utilization. Also, enter the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving which is a favorable matchup for their opponents’ safeties, like a top 10 favorable matchup! Owens is a very comfortable play this week who can deliver a great tackle floor.

SIT: Jevon Holland, Miami Dolphins, DB29 (S23)

Jevon Holland has had a very consistent year so for for IDP. Delivering almost 7 total tackles a game with 62 tackles over his 9 games this season. His utilization is a respectable 46.6% from the sweet spot as well, which is good, but not great. Holland has been able to be IDP relevant with average utilization though. However, one thing that can be killer to a player’s IDP production, is an opponent that cannot sustain drives or push the ball down field where safeties have an opportunity to make more plays. This week, Holland gets the Jets and newly minted starting QB, Tim Boyle. Holland is still likely to deliver some base value due to his ability, but his overall ceiling is drastically lowered and becomes an unfavorable play for me this Friday.

 

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More Analysis by Jake

Week 12 Street FA Report

Updated: November 22nd 2023

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer one (1) player that is owned in <25% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

 

Add of the Week

Charlie Kolar, TE, BAL (Owned 9%)

Week 11: 1 Rec/13 yards

I expect everyone to jump on the Mark Andrews injury with high bids on Isaiah Likely this week. Maybe they will be right but with Andrews’ injury I think this presents a great opportunity for the Ravens to take another look at another second year tight end whom they drafted higher than Likely, Charlie Kolar. Kolar was picked at the start of the fourth round in 2022 and had a propensity for finding soft spots in the middle of the field and presenting himself to the quarterback. In our rookie rankings he was my TE3, behind Trey McBride and Greg Dulcich, and noted, “If he goes to [a] team that can use him similar to Mark Andrews or George Kittle, Kolar could become a TE1 consistently after learning NFL blocking patterns”. Sure enough he was drafted to a team that needs someone to fill the Mark Andrews role and I still believe in his talent enough to think he could be a late season breakout. If you need a (better) tight end option add Charlie Kolar for basically free.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

RB Add

Chris Rodriguez Jr, RB, WAS (Owned 29%)

Week 11: 6 Car/43 yard, 1 Rec/5 yards

Antonio Gibson was absent in Week 11 which allowed Chris Rodridguez to see his highest share of touches thus far. The Commanders also lead the league in pass plays this season which lends itself as a best case scenario for PPR production. Brian Robinson is still the alpha of this backfield and commanded a significant majority of the snaps with Gibson absent. Still, every game that Gibson misses presents an opportunity for Rodriguez to show how he can fit in the game plan both this year and in 2024.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

WR Add

Justin Watson, WR, KC (Owned 11%)

Week 11: 5 Rec/53 yards, 1 TD

The Chiefs clearly have no WR1 and outside of Travis Kelce very few receiving options seem to have the trust of Patrick Mahomes to come up with clutch plays. This was evident on Monday night in a Super Bowl rematch (preview?) where Mahomes was more often caught patting the ball into a sack or scrambling to pick up whatever yards he could with his legs. I did however recommended as a sleeper before KC’s bye week to stash Justin Watson who was returning from injury and could play a bigger role in the offense for the second half of the season. Sure enough Watson doubled the next wide receiver in targets with eleven (11) and looked the most competent receiver on the field wearing red. Watson should be rostered in more than 1/10 leagues and could be a WR3/4 the remainder of the season.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

TE Add

Tucker Kraft, TE, GB (Owned 27%)

Week 11: 2 Rec/32 yards

It came out earlier this week that Luke Musgrave suffered a pretty significant abdominal injury that may cause him to be placed on Injured Reserve. At minimum it does not sound like he will be available for Week 12 and so fellow rookie tight end Tucker Kraft may see more opportunities on the field this week. The Packers have been green with more than just their uniforms this year as most of their skill position players are first and second year starters. This leaves quarterback Jordan Love with little veteran presence to command a significant target share and thus he has spread the ball around. Without Aaron Jones in the backfield to take redzone targets for much of the season either Love has had to find other outlets to score touchdowns. A 6’5”, 250 tight end might help with that.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Sleeper Add (<25%)

A.T. Perry, WR, NO (Owned 27%)

Week 11: 2 Rec/38 yards, 1 TD

I know I am breaking my own rule for the “sleeper” threshold but with the injury to Michael Thomas and his subsequent placement on Injured Reserve, I believe that A.T. Perry could be more than a flier over the final month of the fantasy regular season. Perry played on 84 percent of the snaps in Week 10, more than any other skilled position player on the Saints. His skillset best matches with what we saw on his first career touchdown which is a box-him-out type of receiver who can be useful in the end zone. With Chris Olave taking up much of the targets between the 20s this leaves Perry much of the opportunity for fades and jump balls in the endzone. Depending on which quarterback the Saints are starting there may also be more “hero ball” opportunities with Winston than with Carr under center.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

IDP Start/Sit: Week 11

Updated: November 16th 2023

IDP Start/Sit: Week 11

 

Week 10 was not our best outcome of the season with only 2 good picks, but the process looked good for most of them. Variance can be our friend, but this week, it was not. But let’s move forward to week 11 and talk through our lineups as we near playoff time.

Week 10 Recap

DL:

Start: Calijah Kancey (3 solos, 2 TFLs, 2 QB hits) 👍 – 2 big plays in the backfield, I like this as a good week.

Sit: Khalil Mack (4 solos, 1 TFL, 1 QB hit) 👎 – A borderline game, I took the W on Kancey, I’ll take the L on Mack

LB:

Start: Patrick Queen (6 solos, 3 assists) 👎 – I thought we would see more beyond on just standard tackles this week. I’ll take the L on that.

Sit: Alex Anzalone (4 solos, 5 assists, PD, QB hit) 👎 

DB:

Start: Alontae Taylor (4 solos, 1 assist, TFL, 2 PDs) 👍

Sit: Keisean Nixon (2 solos, 2 assists, PD, 151 return yards) 👎

Week 11 Starts & Sits

START: Kyle Van Noy, Baltimore Ravens, DL42 (ED33)

Kyle Van Noy has done it again, he has found a team, he has found a role, and he is finding a way to deliver IDP value. The Ravens’ defense as a whole has been excellent this year and many are finding success but it is fun to see a veteran role player making such an impact. He has had a nice run over his last three games as well. 12 pressures, 2 sacks, but he has been so close on quite a few, too. Add an additional QB hit and 9 hurries to go along and you can see how he has been not only delivering, but the potential to have more on top of that. He was dealing with a groin injury this week but was a full participant on practice on Wednesday so you can feel confident about his usage this week which over the last 3 weeks has been good as a more of the pass rush specialist, at 36 snaps per game. This does limit his tackle floor and explain his lowered ranking, but when you need to stream that DL spot or are chasing sack upside, Van Noy is our guy this week. His matchup against the Bengals should be a plus matchup overall as well with the Bengals allowing just over 17 pressures per game over their last 3 as well. The Ravens offense has played very well this season and his likely to keep this in a negative game script or at least neutral for the Bengals, meaning more pass rushing opportunities overall. The intersection of Van Noy’s performance and the Bengals looking like a plus matchup make Van Noy a great streaming candidate.

SIT: Montez Sweat, Chicago Bears, DL15 (ED14)

Montez Sweat has had a very good IDP season so far and has done so in a consistent fashion that really shouldn’t warrant a sitting or fading of him in our lineups. 27 pressures on 239 pass rush snaps for a very respectable 12.29% pass rush pressure rate. He has done well to convert those pressures into sacks with 8 on the season already. Additionally, he has delivered an average of 3 tackles a game too as a nice little baseline. So why are we considering fading Sweat? It is a little bit his change of scenery and a lot more his unfavorable matchup against the Detroit Lions. In his 2 games, he has shown a lot less activity in the run defense of the game and has only compiled 2 total tackles. Small sample, I know, but it is still a bit concerning at this point and takes away from the floor he had in Washington. Then, enter the Detroit Lions and their 3rd best pressure rate allowed 2nd best sack conversion percentage. Sweat has shown an ability to deliver and if you don’t have many other options, he is still capable from talent alone to make his week on one big play, but for me, I am lowering my expectations on Montez Sweat this week.

START: Elandon Roberts, Pittsburgh Steelers, LB26

Elandon Roberts seems to be the last man standing in Pittsburgh with Kwon Alexander suffering a significant injury last week, and Holcomb is already on IR, it is Robert’s show to run at this point for the Steelers’ LB room. Roberts is well known as a solid run defender but not so much for his coverage skills, well enter a Cleveland Browns team that already surrenders some of the most tackles per game to their opponents’ linebackers and now has lost their starting QB in Deshaun Watson for the season. And a team without its starting QB is likely to lean into its run game to help “cover up” its lesser QB. To say this is an ideal matchup for Roberts, might be one of the biggest understatements. Roberts should be in all of our lineups this week.

SIT: De’Vondre Campbell, Green Bay Packers, LB27

De’Vondre Campbell, after missing some time earlier this season, has ended up back in the lead role with Quay Walker experiencing his own injury issues. His production was strong in his first week back against Minnesota with 14 tackles and a handful of other plays. However, the last two weeks he has averaged 5.5 tackles, with only 4 of them as the solo variety. And early in this week, he might be moving back into a smaller role with Quary Walker logging a limited practice on Wednesday already and McDuffie showing his viability during the injuries of Campbell and Walker, too. Reduced opportunities aren’t always the end of an LB’s IDP viability, however, the lowered opportunities paired with a matchup against the team allowing the lowest tackles and IDP scoring to their opposing linebackers is not a good thing. And that is what Campbell has in facing off against the Los Angeles Chargers.

START: Kevin Byard, Philadelphia Eagles, DB35 (S27)

Kevin Byard had his chance of scenery this year, just like Montez Sweat, and Byard has done a nice job maintaining his IDP production with the Eagles. His tackle floor has dipped just shy of 1 tackle per game, but he has maintained a great “sweet spot” utilization at 51.7% the last two games. In week 11, Byard gets the Kansas City Chiefs and Patrick Mahomes. Mahomes has normally been a QB who doesn’t make many mistakes, however, this year has been a bit different, he already has 13 turnover-worthy plays this season through 9 games, whereas last 3 years he has averaged closer to 20 a season. Byard, who is normally a consistent play-maker, has yet to make that mark this season. And in a matchup with a team that has the 6th highest pass rate, a QB who is making more mistakes than usual, and a defender in Byard who likely has positive regression towards making a splash play to go along with a solid tackle floor, gives me a lot of confidence in firing up Kevin Byard in all my lineups.

SIT: Jalen Pitre, Houston Texans, DB23 (S18)

Jalen Pitre was the IDP darling last season with his other-worldly tackle production. His 2023 production has not matched this at all, but has been viable for our IDP lineups this year. However, last week we saw a shift away from Pitre as a box safety and get his lowest “sweet spot” utilization at 25% and it resulted in his worst tackle performance of the season with 1 solo tackle. Week 11 opponent, the Arizona Cardinals, don’t help Pitre’s overall opportunities with their bottom-third plays run per game at 61 plays. Even with Murray back last week, they still only ran 60 plays. They are not the higher-tempo offense we saw under Kliff Kingsbury. With the potential shift in his alignment and usage and the lowered ceiling of opportunities in fewer plays to defend, I am lower on Pitre’s potential outcomes.

 

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More Analysis by Jake

Week 11 Street FA Report

Updated: November 22nd 2023

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer one (1) player that is owned in <25% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

 

Add of the Week

Ty Chandler, RB, MIN (Owned 45%)

Week 10: 15 Car/45 yards, 1 TD

The Vikings are one of the most interesting case studies in the definition of “expectations”. When healthy they were 1-4 and in the running for a top 5 draft selection. Now that they are playing without Kirk Cousins and Justin Jefferson they are suddenly 6-5 and back into the playoff picture. Regardless of all that, the one constant has been that Alexander Mattison has not been reliable enough to start in fantasy most weeks this season and the coaches may be looking elsewhere for production, even before his injury during week 10. I saw on Twitter (X?) this weekend a comparison that fit eerily well which was that Mattison is our 2020’s version of Ben Tate. For those that do not remember Ben Tate, he was the backup to Arian Foster and was seen as the best handcuff in fantasy. Once he was able to get out of Foster’s shadow to find his own starting role, Tate was expected to be an ascending dynasty asset. In reality, he played one (1) more season and then was out of the league after bouncing around with three (3) other teams. All this to say go get Ty Chandler as the Vikings do not appear to view Mattison the same way they viewed Dalvin Cook.

Suggested Bid: $4,00,000

RB Add

Keaton Mitchell, RB, BAL (Owned 70%)

Week 10: 3 Car/34 yards, 1 TD, 1 Rec/32 yards

I am still a little hesitant that a player who has averaged seven (7) touches per game is going to be a consistent fantasy player but the production on those touches makes it impossible for Keaton Mitchell to still be available in leagues. I had written in my pre-draft evaluation that Mitchell was a “scooter, who is quick to the edges” which definitely showed last week on his 32 yard touchdown run. His skillset still best suits what I think is a “Boston Scott” type of specialty usage back but maybe the Ravens staff have more plans to get him the ball in the coming weeks.

Suggested Bid: $3,000,000

WR Add

Noah Brown, WR, HOU (Owned 43%)

Week 10: 7 Rec/172 yards

C.J. Stroud seems to be raising any receivers’ value this season as Noah Brown had 980 career receiving yards in his previous five (5) seasons and has now had 325 yards in the last two (2) games. Some of that comes from Nico Collins being out of the lineup but it does not appear that Stroud is locked in on any one option and if you are open he will get you the ball. For as long as Collins is out of the lineup, Brown can be seen as having the same weekly value as he would and even with him back, consider Brown a high upside WR4 most weeks.

Suggested Bid: $2,000,000

TE Add

Tanner Hudson, TE, CIN (Owned 3%)

Week 10: 6 Rec/33 yards

The Bengals have been a no-show for the tight end spot most of this season, evident by their three (3) way split of tight end snap shares in Week 10 (36:33:31). Reading deeper though, Tanner Hudson has actually been their primary receiving tight end since being reactivated two (2) weeks ago. With the offense rounding into shape for the second half of the season Hudson might be another option to add to the weekly rotation of streaming tight ends. Especially with Tee Higgins and Ja’Mar Chase nursing injuries it may be other players who need to help Joe Burrow keep their season afloat.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Sleeper Add (<25%)

Kyle Philips, WR, TEN (Owned 22%)

Week 10: 3 Rec/61 yards

Since Will Levis has taken over the Titans offense the passing game has been at least serviceable in Tennessee which has led to Kyle Phillips coming back on the radar as a deep league sleeper. He was being stashed across leagues heading into last season but injury and poor pace of play made his value null for most of the season. He again was dealing with injuries earlier this year but his return, coinciding with Levis’ starts, has shown that he can have some big play capabilities as the slot receiver he was supposed to be. Do not confuse him with anyone that can be started at this point but he is another player that could be stashed on the practice squad to see what Tennessee does the rest of the season.

Suggested Bid: $500,000 ($100,000 PS)

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

IDP Start/Sit: Week 10

Updated: November 8th 2023

 

Week 10 is upon, we are halfway through the NFL season and a bit further through our fantasy seasons. Week 9 was a bit of a hit and miss, but we definitely found some values and we have some great values for you here going into week 10 that will hopefully help you make your push into the fantasy playoffs.

Week 9 Recap

DL:

Start: Jadeveon Clowney (2 solos, 1 assist, 2 PD) 👎 – 2 PDs keep this from being a bad week at least

Sit: Jonathan Greenard (2 solos, 3 QB hits) 👍 – Very close to being a big week though!

LB:

Start: Blake Cashman (5 solos, 5 assists, 2 TFLs) 👍 

Sit: Kaden Elliss (5 solos, 4 assists, PD) 👎 

DB:

Start: Trent McDuffie (8 solos, 2 assists, FF) 👍

Sit: Trevon Moehrig (5 solos, 1 sack, TFL, QB hit) 👎

Week 9 Starts & Sits

START: Calijah Kancey, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, DL61 (DT16)

If you heard any of my offseason chatter, you probably know that Kancey was one of my favorites and I really loved the landing spot in Tampa Bay for him. He got off to a rough start battling injuries. He saw 11 snaps week 1 and then didn’t play again until week 6. But since then, Kancey has 4 straight games of 40+ snaps and just saw 59 in week 9. He is averaging 4 pressures, 2 tackles, 0.5 sacks over that span as well. While these are not “stop-the-presses” type of numbers, what they are is consistent. And this is for a rookie has already missed a quarter of the season. I feel good about his continue prospects with what he has shown in his smaller sample this season. This week he gets to face off against the Tennessee Titans, who are allowing the 2nd most pressures per drop back at 33% this season. It’s not just the pressures, but also the conversions into sacks is 6th worst in the NFL at 17%. This is an ideal pass-rush matchup for the Buccaneers as a unit, but I think we see more growth and more importantly, production, from Calijah Kancey this week.

SIT: Khalil Mack, Los Angeles Chargers, DL29 (ED24)

Khalil Mack has shown us some explosive performances already this season. In week 4 he has 6 sacks and week 9 he had 2 sacks. These 8 sacks came against a rookie QB who just kept holding on to the ball in first regular season start, Aidan O’ Connell,  and a QB who is constantly being questioned if he should be a starting QB in Zach Wilson. This accounts for 8 of his 9 sacks and also 18 of his 39 total pressures this season. He is capable of capitalizing in ideal matchups, however, week 10 does not appear to be one of those matchups as the Chargers take on the Detroit Lions. The Lions have the 5th best pressure rate allowed (23%) and 2nd best sack conversion percentage (8%) and have shown a clear desire to run the ball with the 9th highest run percentage and Mack has not been the Mack of his prime and his tackle floor is severely limited to less than 2 tackles per game as well this season.

START: Patrick Queen, Baltimore Ravens, LB15

Telling you to start a top 15 LB rank maybe seems like a silly thing to say, but Patrick Queen has shown that he can deliver an average tackle floor, but what is the real kicker is he has consistent pass-rush utilization. He averages over 7 pass rush attempts a game and has converted 4 of his 64 pass rush attempts into sacks this season. Queen has the clear upside each week with his pass rush ability, but this week, against the Cleveland Browns, we will see his tackle floor and production increase. The Cleveland Browns are the 2nd most friendly team for LBs in terms of tackle production, with an average of 19.3 tackles per games to LBs. And Roquan and Queen are the essential LBs that play nearly every snap, so most of the tackles should be piled up between them.

SIT: Alex Anzalone, Detroit Lions, LB32

Alex Anzalone continues to be the lead LB in Detriot even after they spent a first round pick on Jack Campbell. And Jack Campbell seems to be coming on as the LB2 (maybe LB1 of the near future), but even with Anzalone holding down the lead role, he has not been the pinnacle of efficiency. His tackle efficiency on the season is below league average with his 11.6%. This shows too as he has only had 7 or more tackles twice this season. His upside has been relatively limited outside of his week 8 game against Las Vegas where he had 8 pass rush attempts and converted it into 2 sacks. Every other game this year he had less than 5 pass rush attempts and only converted it into 1 sack. Now with his week 10 matchup against the Chargers, we have a less than ideal one as the Chargers are providing the lowest number of tackles per game to LB’s at 13.4 (thank you to PFF’s Jon Macri for this tidbit).

START: Alontae Taylor, New Orleans Saints, UNRANKED

Alontae Taylor has a seen the football plenty this year. He is tied for first among all defenders for total targets faced this season at 66. He hasn’t turned this into earth-shattering numbers, but very stable numbers. He is averaging 4.25 tackles and 1 PD per game. While 5 of his 8 PDs did come in week 3 against the Packers, this highlights the kind of boom upside he can deliver along with a solid tackle floor. It helps that he is playing a lot of his snaps out of the slot defender position to the tune of 391 of his 487 snaps coming from the slot alignment. Then enter the Minnesota Vikings and their 3rd highest passing percentage this year at 65.3% of all their plays being pass plays. And don’t fret that Joshua Dobbs is coming into to town, he took 38 drop backs after coming in for the injured Jaren Hall. With a full week of prep and learning, I think it is safe to say they will still be passing at a higher volume. The safe floor, the volume of opportunities he should see this week, and his ability to show us boom weeks are the reasons we should be getting Alontae Taylor into our lineups this week.

SIT: Keisean Nixon, Green Bay Packers, DB38 (CB8)

Keisean Nixon burst onto the scene last year thanks to his explosive play on special teams and some injuries to the Packers’ secondary. He has done a great job carving out his role as the primary slot defender and delivered IDP relevance as well this year. He has taken 279 of his 364 snaps in the slot alignment and delivered 33 tackles and 3 PDs this season. While this is very viable in our lineups (especially CB required), this week he faces off against the Pittsburgh Steelers. The Steelers are 11th in percentage of plays that are passing plays, however, the do not like to utilize their slot WRs with regularity. Over the last 3 games, they have only targeted them a combined 7 times. Whereas Nixon, over that same span, has seen 14 targets. If you are going to cut the tackle floor of my IDP in half potentially based on the matchup and utilization, he quickly becomes a concern for me and since the new kickoff role and the limited returns seen this season, I lose confidence in starting them.

 

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