Bait and Switch: RBs
A few notable running backs switched teams this offseason. The problem becomes how do we evaluate these running backs on new teams, with new coaches, new offensive lines, and a bunch of other new considerations? The folks at Football Outsiders provide one tool that helps separate the offensive line’s contribution to the running game called Adjusted Line Yards (ALY). I created another metric called Isolated Yards per Carry (ISO) to measure the running back’s contribution to the running game by subtracting the ALY from a running back’s YPC. ISO and a host of other relevant factors give readers a sense of how these players might perform in their new locations.
*Running back ranks listed below were taken from Fantasy Pros PPR ADP at the time of writing.
Matt Forte, New York Jets, 12th RB
The former Bear takes his talents to New York signing a 3 year, $12 million contract after 8 seasons in Chicago. Forte has been one of the true dual threat players at the running back position over the course of his career averaging 1,075 yards rushing, 515 yards receiving, and 61 receptions per season. He has used his excellent vision, patience, and cut back ability to exploit defenses over the years. Despite Forte’s historical success, I will be avoiding Forte in fantasy leagues this year at his current cost as a low end RB1.
There are a number of factors working against Forte this season. His 8 seasons in the NFL and over 2000 carries have taken a toll on his productiveness as a rusher. Forte earned the lowest ISO (-0.02) of any running back who has accumulated 300 carries over the last two seasons. He is not going to give the Jets much more than what the offensive line gives him at this stage in his career. Speaking of offensive lines, Forte goes from Chicago’s 7th ranked unit in adjusted line yards last season to the Jets 26th ranked unit in 2015. New York’s line is not getting any younger with three projected starters who will be in their 30s next season.
The third part of our puzzle involves the Jets other running backs. New York resigned Bilal Powell to a new 3 year, $11.25 million contract which was virtually identical to Forte’s deal. Powell produced one of the better under the radar seasons for any running back last year excelling as both a rusher and a receiver. The former fourth round pick from Louisville collected 47 receptions in just 11 games while also displaying dynamic running ability and quickness, ending with the 8th highest ISO of any back with 50 or more carries. The Jets also brought in Khiry Robinson from New Orleans who likely sees a substantial portion of the goal line work, an area where Forte has struggled throughout his career.
Overall, there is not much upside with Forte as the 12th RB off the board. He probably does not approach his career averages in yardage and receptions plus the touchdown potential is rather small. People seem to be generally discounting the workload his teammates will receive (I really like Powell as the 45th RB off the board). Add in the fact that Geno Smith is currently the starting QB and this is a situation I will be avoiding.
Chris Ivory, Jacksonville Jaguars, 33rd RB
Sometimes the arguments against a player just turn to the bizarre. Such is the case for Chris Ivory who signed a massive 5 year, $32 million contract with Jacksonville this offseason. I have heard many analysts suggest Ivory was signed as a backup to T.J. Yeldon or as a goal line back. This argument is ludicrous. Teams simply do not give this kind of money to a running back whom they project to be a marginal role player. Ivory will certainly take many of Jacksonville’s goal line carries, an area the Jaguars and Yeldon were atrocious in, but he also provides so much more. Another common argument is that the Jaguars had a bunch of excess cash they needed to spend and just decided to use it on Ivory. Jacksonville was a team that won only 5 games last season and had needs across the board on defense and holes on the offensive line. The team chose to put a large portion of the available cash into Ivory. The last major detrimental point about Ivory is that he is “injury prone”. This thought seems to have lingered from his first three seasons in the NFL when he missed significant time. Ivory missed exactly two games the last three seasons combined and has little wear with less than 900 career carries.
So what does the former Jet bring to Jacksonville? The answer is a productive, power back the Jags are sorely in need of. He routinely breaks tackles, pushes the pile, and powers through defenses complementing Yeldon’s less violent, gliding style of running. Ivory averaged a strong 4.6 yards per carry over his career and finished last season with an ISO of 0.75, good for 11th among backs with over 100 carries. There is little risk with Ivory at his low end RB3 price (which is somehow lower than Yeldon’s). You are paying for the bottom of probable outcomes as a 180-200 carry committee back with upside for much more as the primary back. Take this bargain where you can.
Lamar Miller, Houston Texans, 7th RB
The best move for fantasy value this offseason might be Lamar Miller moving to Houston. One of the few game breakers at the running back position, Miller is among the handful of lead backs in the NFL who can outrun safeties and corners once he gets to the third level. This makes Miller a threat to score from any part of the field as evidenced by 85 and 97 yard scoring runs over the last two seasons. His running style involves little dancing in the backfield, instead accelerating to top speed rapidly and gaining positive yards. All of this speed comes in a prototypical 5’-10” 225lb frame that has been very durable, not missing a single game over the last three seasons.
The former Hurricane has also quietly been one of the most productive backs in the NFL over the last couple of seasons. Averaging 4.8 YPC despite playing for one of the worst rushing offensive lines in the NFL, Miller generated the largest ISO (1.04) of any running back playing the last two seasons and accumulating 200 carries over that span. The 25 year old has also steadily improved in the passing game increasing his receptions and YPA over the last two seasons. These skills will be put to good use in the Bill O’Brien led Houston offense which has been top 5 in rushing attempts (averaging 511) over the last two seasons and also uses running backs extensively in the passing games. Miller is looking at a big workload increase with even a very conservative 50% volume share.
There are no sure things at the running back position when players switch teams, but Lamar Miller is one of the best bets to succeed for the near future. He has tremendous physical skills, great proven performance, limited wear and tear, plus moves to a run-heavy offense that also throws the ball a lot to the running backs. He should be a safe RB1 with legitimate top-5 upside.
Demarco Murray, Tennessee Titans, 19th RB
Murray’s moves to Tennessee from what was a disaster in Philadelphia. New coach Mike Mularkey promises an “exotic smashmouth” style of football this year and the Titans bolstered that claim by adding Murray in free agency, first round draft pick offensive lineman Jack Conklin, and 246lb Heisman winning running back Derrick Henry in the second round. Contradicting the heavy running claim is that Tennessee ran the ball only 172 times over the last 8 games (21.5 attempts per game) of 2015 when Mularkey was the interim head coach. The Titans were behind in too many games to effectively run a rushing dominated offense. That situation is unlikely to change in 2015 as the defense is not good enough to support a run based offense.
Murray moved from one of the best offensive lines in Dallas to one of the worst in Philadelphia resulting in his YPC plummeting. At the same time, his production remained very similar. While Murray’s YPC dropped from 4.6 with Dallas to 3.5 with the Eagles, his ISO remained nearly identical (0.30 vs 0.33). Expect his yards per carry to increase closer to four next season in what will be a better offensive line than Philly.
Murray is priced fairly right now. He is in that large group of backs with questions about volume, workload split, and/or performance. Tennessee’s schedule gives Murray the chance to establish himself as the lead back. They will not face a single rushing defense ranked inside the top 10 against the run on a per carry basis from 2015. Volume may be the problem in Tennessee.
Bio: Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics. He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time. Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.
