Cap Analysis: Bears
Chicago Bears
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It’s hard to be excited about the Bears in 2016. They’re heading into year eight of the Jay Cutler era. Barring unforeseen success, it’s likely to be the final year of the Cutler era. At this point in his career, he is what he is – just talented enough to win some games, just reckless enough to lose some games, and just brash enough to be unlikeable for the general public.
The Bears need to rebuild, and it could be a fairly long process. It seems likely that they will take one step backward in an attempt to take two steps forward. They’re probably going to let Matt Forte and Alshon Jeffrey walk in Free Agency. They’ll probably put a lot of young players around Cutler, and they could end up as one of the weaker teams in the league. The question isn’t really how good will they be in 2016, but who will still be in the most important positions – coach, general manager, and quarterback – in 2017.
Projected 2016 Team Salary: $95.7M (not including escalators and NLTBE* incentives) *Not Likely To Be Earned
Projected 2016 Cap Room: ~$60.47M (~$155.27M Estimate; ~$0.9M Rollover)
Situation: Weak
The Bears have almost $60M in available cap space and lots of needs, but it’s far from a certainty that they will make any real splash in free agency. Even if the team spent every penny, it’s not likely they would leapfrog the Vikings or Packers, and definitely can’t improve enough to compete for the NFC title in 2016.
Notable Free Agents:
In eight seasons with the Bears, Matt Forte has played in and started 120 of 128 games. He’s been amazingly durable, averaging nearly 1,600 yards from scrimmage during that time. 2015 was the only year in that span in which he put up less than 1,400 from scrimmage, and he still put up 1,287 in 13 games. The Bears are making the right decision to move on, because Forte is still good enough to make them better, but won’t be by the time the Bears are good enough to compete.
Alshon Jeffrey, who has averaged 6 receptions, 88.5 receiving yards, and 0.55 touchdowns per start since 2013 will have many suitors if he enters free agency. There’s a significant gap between him and the next set of free agent wide receivers (T. Benjamin, M. Sanu, M. Jones, R. Matthews, R. Randle). Veteran tight end Zach Miller (no, not the one who had a few good seasons with the Raiders and won a super bowl with the Seahawks) emerged as a threat late in the season (31 receptions, 404 rec. yards, 5 TDs in 8 game span), and is also a free agent. **Editor’s Note: Alshon Jeffrey was franchise tagged subsequent to Matt writing this article.
The Bears released Jermon Bushrod after he fell out of the rotation while battling a shoulder injury. Starting guard Vlad Ducasse is also a free agent.
In the front seven, the team is likely to lose Shea McClellin, whose fifth year option was declined after he failed to meet his first-round expectations, plus Jarvis Jenkins and Sam Acho. In the secondary, veteran journeymen Tracy Porter, Ryan Mundy, and Alan Ball are free agents.
Top Projected Cap Hits:
Jay Cutler’s cap charge is very reasonable for any starting quarterback not on their rookie contract. The cap figure of Pernell McPhee and Lamarr Houston are not completely unreasonable, although the team is paying roughly $1M per sack for their 14 combined sacks in 2015. Martellus Bennett turns 29 in March, and the team will need him to return to form, especially if Alshon Jeffrey departs.
Cap Casualty Watch List:
As mentioned earlier, this is likely the final year of the Cutler era. The Bears need to be bad before they can be good again. So why not just suck it up and eat his $13M cap charge in 2016? Separately from the cap decision, the Bears owe Cutler $10M in guaranteed base salary triggered by the fact that he was on the roster in mid-March, 2015. If the Bears cut him today, they would still have to write him a check for $10M. On March 11, 2016, the remaining $6M of his base salary becomes guaranteed. The team can release Cutler in February 2017 with only a $3M cap charge, and no additional cash owed.
Many of the other veterans on this list that manage to hang around in 2016, could find themselves on the chopping block a year from now.
Extension Watch List:
If I were Martellus Bennett, I would play out my contract and take one more crack at a multi-year contract in free agency in 2017. The team may be interested in keeping him around beyond this year, though it’s hard to know what the regime that inherited him (John Fox/Ryan Pace) thinks of his quirky personality.
Kyle Long is likely to have his fifth year option exercised, pushing his free agency out to March 2018.
Marquess Wilson won’t turn 24 until September and showed some flashes of promise. He’s coming off of a foot injury, but if he is healthy for camp, the team may decide to invest in a small extension before he becomes a potential starter.
Position Needs:
Linebacker, Defensive Line, Offensive Tackle.
Sleeper Watch:
Eddie Royal has been a perennial sleeper since his outstanding rookie season in 2008. He turns 30 in May, but with Matt Forte leaving and Alshon Jeffrey potentially joining him, there will be a lot of targets to go around if this team is playing from behind as often as I envision.
Matt Papson (@RealitySportsMP) formerly worked in football administration for the Philadelphia Eagles. He is the President, co-founder and creator of Reality Sports Online, a fantasy front office platform that enables fantasy owners to build and manage their fantasy team like a professional sports general manager. The Reality Sports Online platform has been featured in Fortune, on Bloomberg TV, and was the 2012 Fantasy Sports Trade Association Rookie of the Year.
Sources: Spotrac, Pro-Football Reference, and Rotoworld
