Cap Analysis: Buccaneers
Tampa Bay Buccanneers
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The Bucs, like their Florida brethren from Jacksonville, are in a strong position to improve quickly. Gerald McCoy, LaVonte David, Jameis Winston, and Mike Evans is a very solid young core to build around. They have only one true priority free agent in my view, a top 10 draft pick, and almost $50M in cap space. The team ousted Lovie Smith and replaced him from within with Dirk Koetter. Koetter is a first time NFL head coach, spending the majority of his career as an offensive coordinator on the college and pro level, but he was the head coach at Boise State and Arizona State in the late 90’s and early 2000’s. He got the most out of David Garrard and Matt Ryan when he was the OC for the Jags and Falcons, and should continue to help Jameis Winston develop into an elite quarterback.
Projected 2016 Team Salary: $113.4M (not including escalators and NLTBE* incentives) *Not Likely To Be Earned
Projected 2016 Cap Room: ~$48.6M (~$154M Estimate; ~$8.0M Rollover)
Situation: Strong
The Bucs have almost $50M in cap space, and that doesn’t include the space they could create if they choose to move on from certain veterans. The Bucs have several veteran contracts that they can easily get out from under to create additional space without repercussions. There are some notable free agents available, especially on the defensive side of the ball, and I think the Bucs will probably target and land at least one of them.
Notable Free Agents:
Henry Melton and Chris Conte were both drafted by the Bears while Lovie Smith was the head coach, so I would not be surprised to see the team let the Lovie loyalists walk. Doug Martin and Chris Ivory headline the free agent class of running backs. Martin finished second in rushing in 2015, and should be the team’s top priority. Tony McDaniel could be resigned, especially if Melton leaves, and would continue to be a nice option beside Gerald McCoy.
Top Projected Cap Hits:
The Bucs only have six cap commitments totaling more than $5M. Four of those commitments are to young star players. Two, Vincent Jackson and Logan Mankins, are 33 year-old veterans that could either have their contracts restructured, or be released, though the Bucs will probably be content letting them play out their contracts given the amount of space the team currently has available.
Cap Casualty Watch List:
If they were so inclined, the Bucs could save almost $46M in a purge of veterans. That’s not likely to happen for two reasons: 1) they already have plenty of cap space and 2) it would leave the roster with some pretty gaping holes that they wouldn’t be able to fill with equal talent, even with all that money freed up. Most of these are included strictly because of age, contract structure, potential savings, and expiration. But, a few of the names on this list will undoubtedly be forced to restructure or be released. Major Wright is another player drafted by the Bears when Lovie Smith was the head coach, so I would not be shocked if he is shown the door.
Extension Watch List:
The Bucs have a few players from the 2013 draft class they might consider extending, and two veterans on their offensive line. My guess is that the team will let most or all of these players play out the remainder of their respective contracts. If Tony McDaniel and Henry Melton are both allowed to leave in free agency, an extension for defensive linemen Akeem Spence and/or William Gholston could make sense.
Position Needs:
Runningback, Safety, Corner.
Sleeper Watch:
I’m holding out hope that 2016 is the year that things finally click for Austin Seferian-Jenkins. If he can stay healthy, I could see a breakout year ahead.
Matt Papson (@RealitySportsMP) formerly worked in football administration for the Philadelphia Eagles. He is the President, co-founder and creator of Reality Sports Online, a fantasy front office platform that enables fantasy owners to build and manage their fantasy team like a professional sports general manager. The Reality Sports Online platform has been featured in Fortune, on Bloomberg TV, and was the 2012 Fantasy Sports Trade Association Rookie of the Year.
Sources: Spotrac, Pro-Football Reference, and Rotoworld
