Cap Analysis: Falcons
Atlanta Falcons
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After putting together five consecutive winning seasons with four playoff appearances from 2008-2013, the Falcons have been perennial disappointments the last three years. The Dan Quinn era got off to a fast start with five consecutive wins to start the season (6-1 through first seven). But, the team lost seven of its final nine regular season games. I’m always leery of coordinators who become head coaches shortly after their predecessors became head coaches.
In addition to current general manager, Thomas Dimitroff, the Falcons front office now contains three other former general managers helping them evaluate talent – assistant general manager Scott Pioli, and national scouts Phil Emery and Ruston Webster.
The Panthers aren’t going anywhere anytime soon, and the Bucs appear to be on the rise, so the Falcons will almost undoubtedly end up with between 6 and 10 wins – though I would tend to lean toward the high side.
Projected 2016 Team Salary: $128.5M (not including escalators and not likely to be earned incentives)
Projected 2016 Cap Room: ~$30.7M (~$155.27M Estimate; ~$3.9M Rollover)
Situation: Strong
The Falcons are right in the middle of the pack with approximately $31M in cap space. However, the team has four marquee players at key (and typically expensive) positions under contract for at least the next two years – Matt Ryan, Julio Jones, Jake Matthews, and Desmond Trufant. The team badly needs a pass rusher, but there are several serviceable veteran pass rushers available in free agency, especially if you include all of the 4-3 and 3-4 pass rushers.
Notable Free Agents:
The Falcons only have a handful of notable free agents, and only one, Chris Chester, started every game of the season last year.
Top Projected Cap Hits:
As mentioned in our Lions evaluation, the Falcons are one of four teams that have two players with top 25 top charges – Matt Ryan is 7th and Julio Jones is 23rd. As we’ll address in the next section, two of the players on this list may not be on this list in a week.
Cap Casualty Watch List:
Tyson Jackson has yet to live up to expectations that came with being drafted third overall in 2009. While he does play both inside and outside, he’s yielded exactly zero sacks in 32 games with the Falcons. If released, he’ll still count for $4.8M against the cap, but it would save the team $4.75M in cash.
Likewise, Roddy White would still count for $3.775M against the cap if released, but between base salary and roster bonuses, the team could save $4.25M in cash. I think it’s very unlikely fellow receiver Devin Hester remains with the team, at least on his current contract. [Editor’s Note: Roddy White has since been released].
Because of a lack of depth on the defensive line and at tight end, Jonathan Babineaux and Jacob Tamme will almost definitely be back.
Extension Watch List:
The Falcons can exercise Desmond Trufant’s fifth year option, pushing his expected free agency to March, 2018.
Robert Alford, who starts opposite Trufant, will be a free agent in 2017. He’s shown promise in his first three seasons, notching seven interceptions in 41 games. The team surely wants to keep him, though they may prefer to move him to the nickel if they invest a high draft pick in a corner or sign one in free agency. If an extension is reached before the start of the season, Alford should command something similar to the 5-year, $24.6M contract the Steelers gave Cortez Allen before the start of the 2014 season.
Position Needs:
Defensive End, Safety, Tight End.
Sleeper Watch:
Matt Ryan is going to have to throw the ball to somebody other than Julio Jones. With Roddy White being released, whoever the Falcons sign, draft, or promote to start opposite Julio should be in line for a lot of targets.
Matt Papson (@RealitySportsMP) formerly worked in football administration for the Philadelphia Eagles. He is the President, co-founder and creator of Reality Sports Online, a fantasy front office platform that enables fantasy owners to build and manage their fantasy team like a professional sports general manager. The Reality Sports Online platform has been featured in Fortune, on Bloomberg TV, and was the 2012 Fantasy Sports Trade Association Rookie of the Year.
Sources: Spotrac, Pro-Football Reference, and Rotoworld
