Cap Analysis: Rams
Los Angeles Rams
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The Rams enter year five of the Jeff Fisher era with a tremendous amount of young talent. But, the team still has a few notable holes, and competes in one of the best divisions in football. Personally, I think the transition to Los Angeles is going to benefit the team. Because this transition has been looming for several years, the team was forced to play amid uncertainty in a stadium with empty seats in 2015. The buzz in Los Angeles might wear off eventually, especially if a second team ends up there, but for now I expect the support to be incredible. I also hope that football returns to St. Louis in a few years, because it’s a great city worthy of an NFL team (and home of my favorite defunct franchise and business heroes).
Projected 2016 Team Salary: $97.8M (not including escalators and Not Likely To Be Earned incentives)
Projected 2016 Cap Room: ~$59.6M (~$155.27M Estimate; ~$2.2M Rollover)
Situation: Strong
The Rams have several extremely talented young players, in large part thanks to the infamous RG3 trade. Todd Gurley and Aaron Donald might be the best 24 and under pair in the league. But, their quarterback situation is an unsolved mystery, and half of the Ram’s 2015 defense become free agents in a week. You can count me among a very small group of people that thinks the Peyton Manning to L.A. theory has real merit. As I’ll touch on later, Nick Foles will be on the Rams roster in 2016 – but he looks like he may never return to his 2013 form.
I think Manning intends to play in 2016. The guy who keeps him out of the GOAT conversation because he has had more success in the same era, just signed a 2-year extension. The lure of Los Angeles, with a post-retirement Hollywood gig or potential front office role, and the possibility of becoming the first quarterback to win a Super Bowl with three teams, might be enough.
Notable Free Agents:
The Rams released Chris Long, James Laurinaitis, and Jared Cook. Long and Laurinaitis have been staples of the defense for many years. Long was pretty dominant for a four-year stretch from 2010-2013, starting 64 consecutive games and posting 41.5 sacks. He hasn’t been able to stay healthy the last two years, and his $14.25M cap figure was far too high.
Laurinaitis has started every game of his seven-year career with the Rams, but his production has been steadily decreasing since 2012.
Cook has shown flashes of greatness in his seven-year career, but he has never been able to produce consistently.
In addition to Long, the Rams will lose three other players from their defensive line rotation – Nick Fairley, William Hayes, and Eugene Sims.
In the secondary, Rodney McLeod, Trumaine Johnson, and Janoris Jenkins are all free agents. It’s not likely that all three return, but one or two will almost certainly have to be re-signed for continuity – and either Johnson or Jenkins could be the recipient of the franchise or transition tag.
Top Projected Cap Hits:
The Rams made Robert Quinn one of the highest paid defensive ends in the league shortly after he became eligible for an extension, fresh off a 19-sack season in 2013. The man who plays beside him, Michael Brockers, is scheduled to play under his fifth year option.
In retrospect, the Nick Foles contract looks like a bad investment. If reports on his contract structure are accurate, Foles will earn a fully guaranteed $6M roster bonus on 3/16, plus his base salary will become fully guaranteed three days earlier, on 3/13. That is really the only reason the Rams will give him another chance to compete for the starting job. RG3 would have make for an interesting storyline, but it’s hard to envision it coming to fruition.
Cap Casualty Watch List:
Each of these veterans releases would represent significant savings and have roster bonuses indicating the team knew it would consider cutting them before the expiration of the deals, but if they were going to do it, they likely would have done it already.
Extension Watch List:
Tavon Austin and Alec Ogletree are each eligible to have their fifth year option exercised by the team, pushing their expected free agency out to March, 2018. Ogletree’s 2015 was cut short by a broken fibula, but he is almost a lock to have his option exercised. Austin’s situation is less certain. He had his best season as a pro in 2015, but hasn’t generated the kind of production the team expected when they selected him eighth overall in 2013.
Brockers has already had his fifth year option exercised, and there’s no doubt the team would like to keep him around long-term. Complicating the situation is the fact that the team is going to have to offer a monster contract to Aaron Donald at some point between March 2017 and December 2018. While there is a significant amount of time between now and then, it will impact the way the team approaches its negotiations with Brockers.
Position Needs:
Quarterback, Corner, Safety, Wide Receiver, Tight End.
Sleeper Watch:
With better quarterback play, Lance Kendricks might be in line for a considerable increase in targets and production.
Matt Papson (@RealitySportsMP) formerly worked in football administration for the Philadelphia Eagles. He is the President, co-founder and creator of Reality Sports Online, a fantasy front office platform that enables fantasy owners to build and manage their fantasy team like a professional sports general manager. The Reality Sports Online platform has been featured in Fortune, on Bloomberg TV, and was the 2012 Fantasy Sports Trade Association Rookie of the Year.
Sources: Spotrac, Pro-Football Reference, and Rotoworld
