Cap Analysis: Ravens
Baltimore Ravens
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2015 marked the Ravens first losing season with John Harbaugh, who became head coach in 2008. The team was 25th in passing, 26th in rushing, and 30th in turnover ratio. That was partially fueled by a lack of offensive identity, and four different starting quarterbacks. The defense is filled with talent, and had a really strong season when you consider just how poorly the offense performed. If the Ravens offense gets healthy, they should be able bounce back quickly.
Projected 2016 Team Salary: $147.9M (not including escalators and NLTBE* incentives) *Not Likely To Be Earned
Projected 2016 Cap Room: ~$7.7M (~$154M Estimate; ~$1.6M Rollover)
Situation: Weak
The Ravens find themselves with very little cap room, but also few priority free agents. The team needs Breshad Perriman to be the playmaker they believed they were investing in with the 26th overall pick, because they don’t have the space to add a big name in free agency. Joe Flacco has the third highest cap hit of any player in the NFL at $28.55M, trailing only Drew Brees ($30M; likely to be renegotiated) and Ndamukong Suh ($28.6M). An extension or a restructure with Flacco would give the team the spending flexibility needed to invest in the offense, but Flacco has significant leverage.
Notable Free Agents:
The Ravens have only a few notable free agents, but three of them are key players. Justin Tucker is coming off his worst season as a professional, but is still the second most accurate active kicker in the NFL. Courtney Upshaw has started 51 games in his first four seasons and is an important part of a strong front seven. Keleche Osmele has started every game that he’s been healthy since his rookie season. The Ravens would need to create cap room via extensions/restructures of veteran releases to resign all three players.
Top Projected Cap Hits:
Joe Flacco, Terrell Suggs, and Dennis Pitta each have cap charges that the team will probably try to reduce, but the players have the leverage in all three cases because of the cap repercussions that would be associated with their release.
Cap Casualty Watch List:
Jeremy Zuttah is returning from injured reserve, and could be replaced by math whiz John Urschel if the team wants to free up space to resign Keleche Osmele. Will Hill has started 22 games at safety over the last two seasons, but could become expendable as 2013 first round pick Matt Elam returns from injury. Daryl Smith and Steve Smith have been excellent for the Ravens and showed very few signs of aging, but with the team strapped for cap, a release is not out of the realm of possibilities. Justin Forsett wasn’t able to stay healthy, and wasn’t quite as impressive in his encore presentation with the Ravens.
Extension Watch List:
Before any of the other guys on this list receive serious consideration for an extension (and I imagine Brandon Williams is atop that list), the Ravens will have to address Joe Flacco’s contract situation. Flacco still has three years remaining on the then-record-setting 6-year contract he signed in 2013, fresh off of a Super Bowl victory. Numbers certainly don’t tell the whole story with Flacco – the guy’s got a cannon and a terrific career record despite not always having many weapons – but it’s worth noting that he ranks eighteenth in career passer rating among active players.
His $28.55M cap charge ranks third in the league, though his average salary is now eighth among quarterbacks. He’s still got $25.85M in signing and option bonus proration remaining on his contract, and his cap number rises to $31.15M next year. He turned 31 years old in January, and will be 33 in the final year of his contract. The team is scheduled to pay him an $18M base salary this year. They could create $11.33M in space by converting $17M of his 2016 base salary to signing bonus, but it would inflate his 2017 cap charge to more than $36M. Plus, what would Flacco gain other than being a “team player”? The team can’t release him this year, because he would still count for more than $25M against the cap if he weren’t on the roster. Next year would be a different story, and there would surely be some teams a veteran quarterback away from contending that would be interested in his services.
The Ravens aren’t likely to want to increase their investment in Flacco by extending his contract with new money, but they might not have a choice. I could see an “extension” adding one additional year to the contract, with a $19M signing bonus, a 2016 $1M base salary, ~$20M salaries in ’17 & ’18, and a $25M salary in 2019. Such a move would reduce Flacco’s cap number to $16.3M, creating $12.25M in space, while also giving Flacco an additional $2M in the current year. However, it would also compound the issue for the future, raising Flacco’s 2017 figure to $35.9M, and forcing the team to make similar deals until Flacco’s retirement or release (a la Cowboys & Tony Romo).
Position Needs:
Wide Receiver and Running Back.
Sleeper Watch:
I’m still on the Lorenzo Taliaferro bandwagon, though Buck Allen could end up being the guy.
Matt Papson (@RealitySportsMP) formerly worked in football administration for the Philadelphia Eagles. He is the President, co-founder and creator of Reality Sports Online, a fantasy front office platform that enables fantasy owners to build and manage their fantasy team like a professional sports general manager. The Reality Sports Online platform has been featured in Fortune, on Bloomberg TV, and was the 2012 Fantasy Sports Trade Association Rookie of the Year.
Sources: Spotrac, Pro-Football Reference, and Rotoworld
