IDP Start/Sit: Week 12

Updated: November 24th 2022

It’s the holiday season and I hope we all have a ton to be thankful for this year. Let’s see if we can find a bit more to be thankful for with some great lineup decisions for all your IDP teams out there!
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show for them are what is the ECR over from Fantasy Pros for this week.

WEEK 11 RECAP
DL:
Start: Alex Highsmith (1 sack, 2 QB hits)
Start: Denico Autry (27 snaps, QB hit. Injured in the 2nd half but a lower performance up to that point)

Sit: Khalil Mack (1 hit, 1 solo)


LB:

Start: Frankie Luvu (Sack, 6 solos, 4 assists)

Start: Jamin Davis (2 solos, 3 assists)

Sit: Zaven Collins (3 solos, 3 assists)

 

DB:
Start: Dane Belton (2 solos. 59% of snaps, unstable usage and limited production, I’d pivot away moving forward)

Start: Tyrann Mathieu (5 solos, PD)

Sit: Kyle Dugger (Sack, 3 solos, 2 assists, PD. 90% of snaps! Dugger season might be in full effect moving forward)

 

START: Michael DannaKansas City Chiefs, DL53

Michael Danna has spent most of the season as a rotational pass-rusher for the Chiefs and has seen 53% of the snaps this year for their defense. Normally, not an ideal target to start. However, he has found a respectable 10.9% pass-rush pressure rate in his limited snaps. This week he gets the Los Angeles Rams who have the highest sack conversion from pressures allowed. In such a positive matchup, he shouldn’t need as many opportunities to deliver big-play upside. Additionally, the Rams should be in a negative game script that involved more passing, only increasing the opportunities for Danna. This is a deeper play, but should be available in the vast majority of leagues and has solid upside this week as a low-end DL3!

START: Lorenzo CarterAtlanta Falcons, DL69

Lorenzo Carter has been a consistent figure in the Atlanta Falcons defensive front. He has seen 81% of the snaps so far this season, which is very strong usage for a DL position. Carter has a very favorable matchup against the Commanders who are allowing a 29% pressure rate and 17% sack conversion rate. Even though his pass-rush pressure rate is average at 7.8%. The nice bonus to his matchup this weekend as well, is his solid PFF run defense grade of 65.9 for the season. This paired with the Commanders focus on the run game (44% of plays are run) and are one of the higher plays ran per game over the last 3 weeks at 69.7. With these things considered, I like Lorenzo as a high-end DL3 candidate.

SIT: Aidan HutchinsonDetroit Lions, DL20

This pains me to even consider Hutch here, especially with such elite snap counts, 86% on the season. However, he has delivered some big performances this season (and I believe will be a strong dynasty asset) he doesn’t have an ideal matchup against the Buffalo Bills this weekend. The Bills have only allowed a 24% pressure rate, top third in the league, as well as 8% sack conversion, which is 2nd best. Hutchinson’s IDP performances have been brought up by some unlikely things to continue. He has 2 games with interceptions in the last 3 weeks as well as 3 of his 5.5 sacks coming in 1 game in week 2. Additionally, his tackle floor for snaps played his average at best, 2.3 tackles per game. You can always start Hutch if you need him, but if you got better DL2/3 options, I would fire them up instead.

START: Kaden EllissNew Orleans Saints, LB29

Kaden Elliss, the man behind the man. With Pete Werner experiencing an injury and having surgery, Kaden has stepped up into that role and has he thrived for IDP purposes. He is in week 3 of that recovery so if you or someone else hasn’t already grabbed Elliss, do so and fire him up. The Saints are optimistic that Werner will try and play again this year, but until then we will roll with Kaden. The last two weeks he has seen snap percentages of 96% and 92% and he used them to deliver 2.5 sacks, 18 tackles, 3 QB hits, PD, and FF. His sack production has been very efficient but he has done well this whole year with a very strong 77.8 pass-rush PFF grade on the season. Last week, he topped out at his pass-rush grade with a 91.2 performance and I think this is more of what is to come. A great tackle floor with big-play, sack upside. Now, against the 49ers and their stronger pass protection, you’d think its less than ideal, but they are running nearly 69 snaps per game and the increased opportunity should balance out for Elliss this week. You should be looking at Elliss as a top 20 LB this week with next week looking the same too.

START: Dre GreenlawSan Francisco 49ers, LB34

Dre Greenlaw has just consistently been an efficient tackler and continues to do so this season at 14.9% and only missed 6 tackles on the season so far. Greenlaw tends to take the coverage side of the RB in most situations between him and Fred Warner. The matchup with the Saints and Alvin Kamara means Greenlaw can take that tackle efficiency and increased opportunities facing off against the Saints and Kamara. This matchup favors his Greenlaw’s ability and playstyle. As a note, for LB we love to find someone with near 100% snaps and the last 3 weeks have been rough for Greenlaw, but don’t let that fool with you and ejection in week 10 and starters being pulled in a blowout in week 11. Don’t let those numbers shy you away from Greenlaw. He is a strong candidate for LB2 this week and most of the weeks going forward.

SIT: Alex SingletonDenver Broncos, LB27

Alex Singleton is Mr. Efficiency. He has a career tackle efficiency of 17.6% and this season is sitting at a cool 19.7% efficiency this season. While this is great, you still need the volume to make it count for overall production. Singleton has passed Jonas Griffith as LB2 on the depth chart, but he is still only seeing 59% of the snap count. While normally he can turn that into a usable week for IDP, his matchup against the Carolina Panthers is not ideal. Their offense has struggled all year and they are running the worst, 55.6 plays per game on the season. This does not bode well for a strong week for Alex and I would be looking elsewhere this week for an LB3.

START: Grant Delpit, Cleveland Browns, DB29

Grant Delpit has seen very close to 100% of the defense’s snaps for the entire season. Along with the elite usage, he has taken 56% of his total snaps from the “sweet spot” (DL, box, slot). This is great usage for any safety in IDP and as such he is a strong DB2/3 candidate on that alone. Combined with a matchup against the Buccaneers this weekend who run 67 plays per game and 72 over the last 3 means even more opportunities. And Tom Brady is leading the league in passing attempts from 0-9 yards this season, which lines up greatly with players in that “sweet spot”. Delpit should be a strong DB2 candidate DB1 upside.

START: Vonn BellCincinnati Bengals, DB32

Vonn Bell is another safety with elite snap usage, with 98% played for the entirety of the season. He is sitting at 56.1% of his total snaps as well from the “sweet spot”. His matchup this week, however, does not have a pass heavy team for him to feast upon for IDP production. He gets a run-heavy team that will continue to attack the middle of the field with their run game. This gives Bell a much stronger floor than his DB32 ranking justifies. It is a solid floor play this week, with a lower ceiling, but this still makes Bell a high-end DB3 to a low-end DB2.

SIT: Kerby JosephDetroit Lions, DB13

Kerby Joseph has been a pleasant surprise for the Detroit Lion’s defense this year as a rookie coming on due to injuries. Once given the opportunity he has seen almost a near perfect 100% snap count. And with those snaps, he has found a way to deliver big plays with 3 interceptions and 5 PDs. The INTs are not something we should rely on this point but take more into his upside. However, teams have been taking the cover-2, or two high safeties approach against the Bills offense this year, which leads to a lower tackle efficiency overall and creates a great dependency on big-plays, which Kerby has delivered at times this year. Joseph has strong usage and a matchup that should allow for a higher snap count this week, but his floor feels too low for me to confidently use him as a DB1/2 this week. His level sits as DB3 for me but if you want to plug him in focusing on big-play opportunities, it does exist.

More Analysis by Jake

IDP Sit/Start: Week 11

Updated: November 17th 2022

Week 11? That just feels weird to say! We are a few short weeks away from most fantasy football playoffs and hopefully, you are all either locked in for the playoffs or still alive in the hunt for it. Regardless, let’s try and get your IDP lineups set the best and maybe find some value for our rosters too!
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show for them are what is the ECR over from Fantasy Pros for this week.

WEEK 10 RECAP
DL:
Start: Jeffery Simmons (3 solos, 1 assist, PD. Not bad for a non-sack game!)
Start: Josh Paschal (injured during the game, got a zero, played 17 snaps)

Sit: Uchenna Nwosu (1 assist. This isn’t a sell for the ROS, just wasn’t a good matchup)


LB:

Start: Blake Martinez / Luke Masterson (Masterson stats: 2 solos, 4 assists, TFL, 72% snaps. Not a great week but could have some value as an LB3/4 moving forward)

Start: Willie Gay Jr. (6 solos, 2 assists, sack, QB hit, PD)

Sit: Bobby Okereke (6 solos, 3 assists, PD. Bobby got 100% snaps with Leonard not suiting up.)

 

DB:
Start: Duron Harmon (2 solos, 2 assists)

Start: Jalen Ramsey (5 solos, assist)

Sit: Justin Simmons (Was inactive for the game late in the week)

 

START: Alex HighsmithPittsburgh Steelers, DL33

Alex Highsmith has been more of a volume play this season, delivering average numbers. 68.8 PFF pass-rush grade on the season, a 7.5% pressure rate over his last 3 games, but continues to see high snap numbers every week, 87% for the entire season! Last week, Highsmith had a strong week last week (2 sacks, 5 total tackles, QB hit) and we are not just chasing the points here. Highsmith gets a favorable matchup with the Bengals who are allowing a 24% pressure rate and a 21% sack conversion rate! These numbers are slightly inflated from week 1 (7 sacks) and week 2 (6 sacks), but the Bengals are still allowing 2.7 sacks per game since then. Along with Highsmith’s consistent effort and favorable matchup, TJ Watt is supposed to be back into action which should only allow Highsmith to operate with less attention and give him a better chance to deliver overall IDP production for us. He should be considered at a solid DL2 option this week.

START: Denico AutryTennessee Titans, DL34

Denico Autry has capitalized on injuries to his teammates and his increased role. He has delivered a whopping 23 pressures over the last 3 games along with his snap counts jumping up in week 9 (76 snaps) and week 10 (52 snaps), his two highest snap counts of the year so far. But his success is not just recent either, he has a 13.7% pressure rate on the year and a very good PFF pass-rush grade of 76.7. This week he gets the Green Bay Packers who are middle of the “pack” (dad joke achieved!) with their lower pressure rate at 22% but higher sack conversion rate at 18%. The Packers have begun to shift up their passing attack the last few weeks too which bodes well for the Titan’s pass rush. Rodgers has seen his time to throw be the highest 3 weeks out of their last 4. And his last two weeks Rodgers’ Average Depth of Target (ADOT) is the highest it’s been all season, by over a full yard from his previous high. These longer throws and longer time-to-throw give Autry a better chance to get home for some big plays this week. Autry should be a strong DL2 play this week.

SIT: Khalil Mack, Los Angeles Chargers, DL20

Khalil Mack has struggled to make a consistent impact for the Chargers defense recently outside of his big strip of the ball from Drake London against the Falcons. Khalil has managed only 3 pressures over the past three weeks, while maintaining a strong snap count. The IDP production in the run game that prime Mack would deliver is a ghost of its former self. He has only topped 3 combined tackles twice in his 9 full games this season. This week Mack gets the Kansas City Chiefs who have the lowest sack conversion rate in the NFL at 4%. This is due in large part to the play of Patrick Mahomes and his pocket presence and escapability, but this severely limits Macks already low upside. Play Mack feels like you are playing him based solely on past production and I wouldn’t consider him more than a low-end DL3 for this week.

START: Fankie LuvuCarolina Panthers, LB27

Frankie got back to IDP prominence last week with a big game! The big takeaway though is Frankie is back to 100% snap share alongside Shaq Thompson. This 2-LB look is what we want to watch and see if this really is the case for the rest of the season. This week, Frankie gets the Ravens and this is a plus matchup for him. The Ravens run the most plays per game in the NFL at 69.7 plays and the teams that have found success at slowing down the Ravens’ offense has been pressure/blitzing. Frankie has seen consistent pass-rush snaps and has been successful with a 70.3 PFF pass-rush grade. I anticipate this is how the Panthers will try to slow him down and Luvu will be a part of this. My biggest concern is Luvu does have 16 missed tackles on the season and getting after Lamar who is one of the most elusive runners in the NFL, might mean some missed opportunities too. But I would fire up Luvu as a high-end LB2 this week.

START: Jamin DavisWashington Commanders, LB32

This pick of Jamin Davis feels like the least “sexy” pick of a start that I have ever made. Jamin Davis was a first-round talent that hasn’t quite fully delivered or been able to climb past Cole Holcomb on the Commanders’ depth chart. With Holcomb out, however, Davis finds himself with 100% snap share now and Holcomb looks unlikely to play this week (he was a “Did Not Practice”, DNP, this Wednesday). His matchup against Houston this week finds him a run-heavy situation where Dameon Pierce has been seeing plenty of work with 15+ rushes the last 5 weeks, and 3 of those at 20+ even with 4 of those being losses and negative game scripts. Davis doesn’t feel like a strong play rest of the season, but for this week he is a solid LB2.

SIT: Zaven Collins, Arizona Cardinals, LB21

I am a huge Zaven Collins fan myself (NFL and IDP) but this week, I am struggling to see him as an LB2 this week even as a true 3-down LB with 100% snap share. However, not all snaps are created equal and Zaven is starting to get a small dose of the “Micah Parsons experience” and seeing more snaps from the DL position. Last week was 36% of his snaps at DL and week 8 was 31%. During those weeks he saw his lowest tackle production both weeks with 4 combined tackles in each of them. But if he is lining up at DL and taking pass-rush snaps, doesn’t he have more big play upside then? While that is a possibility, the matchup this week against San Francisco is less than ideal. They have the lowest pressure rate in the NFL and 7th best sack conversion rate allowed. I would steer away from Zaven unless you really need him in an LB3/4 spot due to his volume, but if you can afford to bench him for a week, I’d do it.

START: Dane BeltonNew York Giants, DB77

Dane Belton came into the season with some real promise as a rookie, but Belton experienced a broken collarbone, and Julian Love and Xavier McKinney ran with the starting safety jobs. In a strange turn of events, Xavier McKinney broke his hand and ended up on IR and Belton got the chance. The real surprise was Belton taking over the bulk of the “sweet spot” snaps (Box, DL, or Slot). He had 67% of them this last week. This only turned out to be 4 combined tackles, but with snap alignments like this, he could be a late-season steal off your waiver wire. This may only be for the next few weeks, but during that time Belton should be a high-end DB3 to maybe even a low-end DB2.

START: Tyrann MathieuNew Orleans Saints, DB26

Tyrann Mathieu has been one of the few IDPs that have been able to play every snap so far this season, which is impressive in its own rights. This last week changed we saw a heavy shift for Tyrann though with Pete Werner out there was a heavy shift to have Mathieu in the box. He saw 76% of his snaps in the “sweet spot”!! This is an extreme amount for any safety and as such, with Werner likely out again this week, we need to fire up Mathieu against the LA Rams. This usage led to his highest tackle output of the season and playing the Rams will lend to some strong opportunities for big-play upside as well. Tyrann is looking like a DB1 this week and smash start!!

SIT: Kyle Dugger, New England Patriots, DB27

Kyle Dugger had an amazing 2021 for IDP production and did so with strong efficiency numbers on lower snap numbers than other IDP producers around him. He had a strong tackle efficiency of 11.9% last year but this year he has seen a dip of almost 2 points down to 9.3%. The biggest concern though is he is still at a limited snap count though as well as battling injuries this year. With a heavy rotation at the safety spot for the Patriots between Dugger, Phillips, Peppers, and McCourty, and the return from his most recent ankle injury, Dugger needs to stay on our benches until he proves consistent production.

More Analysis by Jake

IDP Start/Sit: Week 10

Updated: November 10th 2022

Week 10 is upon us and we are in need of nailing those IDP lineups so that we can make our playoff push. Or maybe we are just trying to find a stash in our dynasty leagues for next year or some trade bait. Regardless, let’s see who is looking good for us in week 10 and see if we can either get them into a starting lineup or on your roster!

WEEK 9 RECAP
DL:
Start: Travon Walker (2 solos)
Start: Gregory Rousseau (1 solo, 1 TFL, injured and considered week-to-week)

Sit: Rasheem Green (1 PD)


LB:

Start: Nicholas Morrow (2 solos, 2 assists, 1 PD)

Start: David Long Jr. (6 solos, 4 assists, QB Hit)

Sit: Isaiah Simmons (6 solos, 2 assists, TFL, QB hit)

 

DB:
Start: Andre Cisco (2 solos, 3 assists, PD)

Start: Xavier Woods (4 solos, 3 assists)

Sit: Jessie Bates III (1 solo, 3 assists, 1 INT, PD)

 

START: Jeffery SimmonsTennessee Titans, DL24

Simmons has been talked about as an elite defensive linemen by plenty of analysts, but tends to lose some face value due the fact he plays as a interior defender primarily. Beyond the position, Simmons delivers all the baseline needs we want from a top DL option. 81% of the snaps for the season on an average of 55 snaps/game. He has turned that into stellar IDP production, his per game averages are: nearly 4 tackles, 0.7 sacks, 0.5 PD, 1.1 QB hits. Along with stellar year-to-date production, he has a positive matchup this week against Denver who has allowed a pressure rate 28% on the season and an 18% sack conversion rate too. Simmons has been on a tear the last 4 weeks with 19 pressures and 2 sacks. Additionally, if anyone in your league is valuing Simmons as low-end DL2, I would recommend trying to buy at that evaluation!

START: Josh Pascal, Detroit Lions, DL79

Josh Paschal has not had much of a chance to shine this season since he didn’t play his first game until 3 weeks ago. In those three games he has managed 8 pressures and 5 in his last game! In those games he has been a strong volume play getting nearly 85% of the snaps for the defense. These strong baseline give him a great chance to produce, now with a positive matchup against Chicago, he is high-end DL3 play. The Bears are allowing 30% pressure rate at a 14% sack conversion rate. Josh is a good play this week and as a rookie with limited overall production, he is someone you could look into buying low on him for your roster.

SIT: Uchenna Nwosu, Seattle Seahawks, DL12

Uchenna Nwosu has been delivering above off season expectations this year and normally has been a strong play. He has has a great baseline of 80% snaps and has had back-to-back weeks of 2-sack games. Normally I would advocate playing through poor matchups, however, Tampa Bay is less than ideal with the low pressure rate of 19% allowed by the offensive line, as well a 12% sack conversion rate. Nwosu still has a strong capability to produce with limited production, but Tom Brady has the fastest time to throw out of any QB this year of any QB with at least 100 attempts. This is not a hard “sit”, but definitely consider all options on your roster before just putting Nwosu in right away.

START: Blake Martinez, Las Vegas Raiders, LB42

Blake Martinez was a name that everyone knew and loved for IDP production, however, after suffering his ACL injury. He went from top IDP performer, to major injury, no team, another chance with his former defensive coordinator with the Raiders and now, ironically enough, an injury to Divine Deablo is giving him another chance for IDP (and NFL) relevance. Last week he saw 91% of the snaps and he saw the same amount of 3rd down snaps and was the leader on 1st and 2nd down snaps too. This is even though he is not the defensive play caller on the defense (that guy is coming up later!), and showed above average tackle efficiency at 17.7% this last week. Deablo expects to be out a minimum of 4 weeks with being placed on injured reserve so let’s keep firing up Martinez as he will continue his old habits working with Patrick Graham (former defensive coordinator).

UPDATE: 11/10/2022, 2:19 PM
Blake Martinez has retired from the NFL! Obviously, not a great addition to your starting lineup. Luke Masterson would be the 2nd LB to consider as a stash at this time or if you truly have a need to get a body into your lineup. Sorry to those who have made moves or efforts around this!

START: Willie Gay Jr., Kansas City Chiefs, LB34

Willie Gay Jr. a strong start to the season and really showed out in week 2. However, he was suspended for PEDs and missed 4 games and is working to find his full-time spot back on the field. He has seen his snap percentage slowly creep back up to regular numbers over the last two weeks and I believe this is going to continue as we move forward. With a week 10 matchup against the Jacksonville Jaguars, they are running the 11th most plays per this year with slight uptick of that over the previous 3. During the time he has been back on the field his tackle efficiency has been quite strong at 14.7% this last week he is trending towards a strong play as a high-end LB3.

SIT: Bobby Okereke, Indianapolis Colts, LB41

At the start of this season, many viewed Bobby O as an LB2/3 for sure. However, this season has brought forward a new LB in this group, Zaire Franklin. Zaire has taken the opportunity and ran with it. Earning the captain patch from his teammates and eventually given the green dot eventually by the coaching staff as the defensive play-caller. This along with the other big name, Shaquille (Darius) Leonard, is making it difficult for all of them to find time on the field. Bobby Okereke has seen his snaps dip the last two weeks as Leonard has made his way back onto the field (61% to 46%). This is not stable and should leave us from want to start him our lineups unless it is LB4 or deeper.

START: Duron Harmon, Las Vegas Raiders, DB46

Earlier we talked about Martinez and his return to the field for the Raiders. He is not wearing the green dot because Duron Harmon is the defensive play-caller and this is the strongest indicator of playing time. Harmon saw 100% of the snaps last week as the play-caller and that will hold true for this week. He has taken the opportunity and turned it into solid production this last week with 5 solos and 3 assists. This week against Indianapolis will see a new coach in place for them but still an ideal matchup for a defense. And with 42% of his snaps in the “sweet spot”, against a struggling Colts roster, there should be plenty of opportunity to succeed. This is a strong role moving forward for Harmon now that Abram has been cut (and claimed off waivers by the Packers) and you should consider Harmon a capable starter as a high-end DB3 rest of season.

START: Jalen Ramsey, Los Angeles Rams, DB29

Jalen Ramsey is known for his shut down play as an outside corner by a lot of people around the NFL landscape. He should also be known as a cornerback who provides a solid IDP production from the CB position, even to the point of being a viable DB option in combined position leagues. He has delivered a per game stat line: 4.5 tackles, 0.5 TFL, 1.1 PD. A viable stat line for most weeks, but this is because as an “outside” corner, he still finds 33% of his snaps between the slot and the box alignment. Partnered with his overall snaps he has seen, 98% on the season, he should be considered a low-end DB2 for the rest of the season.

SIT: Justin Simmons, Denver Broncos, DB26

Justin Simmons has been back playing the last 3 weeks, but has been spending a good amount of time on the injury report the last few weeks and as such he has some concern about playing time and performance baked in. Along with that, Justin Simmons is a safety that plays most of his snaps (55%) in the deep safety role. Now this week, the Broncos are playing the Titans who run the 2nd fewest plays per game, and the of those plays, the 3rd most of them are run plays. Which combined with where he plays on the field, this is a negative matchup for Simmons IDP production. Simmons is big name for NFL reasons and has contributed IDP relevance in the past, but this is a matchup to pivot away from.

More Analysis by Jake

IDP Start/Sit: Week 9

Updated: November 3rd 2022

Here we are going into week 9 after the trade deadline and with some players on new team, let’s take a look at some of those streamers or players who could be joining your team this week! Additionally, week 8 was a doozy for last week’s start/sit with players being too hurt to play, others as a healthy scratch, and even an ejection!

WEEK 8 RECAP
DL:
Start: Kayvon Thibodeaux (1 QB Hit. Saw lots of snaps, just didn’t produce)
Start: Rasheem Green (1 solo, Titans only had 14 drop backs all game!)

Sit: Chandler Jones (1 solo)


LB:

Start: Quay Walker (4 solos, 1 assist, FF. On 15 snaps! If not for the ejection, this was looking like a top 10 week, but at least he didn’t kill your week)

Start: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (Inactive Monday Night)

Sit: Tae Crowder (2 solos, 34% of snaps. Jaylon Smith looks like the new LB1 for NYG)

 

DB:
Start: Adrian Amos (4 solos, 1 assist. Had 3 more solos negated due to penalties. A borderline performance)

Start: Eric Rowe (Healthy scratch! Big miss and stay away for the rest of the season!)

Sit: Kyle Dugger (Ankle injury ended up keeping him out of the game)

 

START: Travon Walker, Jacksonville Jaguars, DL28

Travon Walker has been playing an elite level of snaps for a DL position, 58 snaps / game. He has posted solid tackle floor numbers this year as well with 4+ tackles in 6 of 8 weeks. His pass rush pressure rate is not ideal at just above 6%, but this week he has a favorable matchup against the Las Vegas Raiders who have allowed a 26% pass rush pressure rate and a 13% sack conversion rate. He has also made a couple of plays and not looked lost when in coverage, which does give him some additional big play upside (he already has 1 INT and 2 PDs as well). Walker may not be delivering FULL number one overall numbers quite yet in the NFL, but he has enough to be a DL2 this week for our IDP lineups.

START: Gregory Rousseau, Buffalo Bills, DL24

Gregory Rousseau has looked good on this Bills top defense and he has a strong defensive PFF and pass rush grade (81.9 and 83.6 respectively). The biggest problem (for IDP) is that Gregory does not get ideal snap count numbers to support overall IDP production. He is seeing just under 35 snaps / game which is good, but not where we’d like to see it. However, with the limited work, we have still seen 5 sacks already, consistent pressures, and the ability to make other plays too (2 PDs this season and an INT on self deflected pass last year). This ability with a favorable matchup against the New York Jets who have allowed a high 26% pressure rate, but a lower 10% sack conversion rate. Rousseau has the ability to take advantage of the pressures allowed and convert them into a sack (or two?) this week.

SIT: Rasheem Green, Houston Texans, DL29

Rasheem Green was a start for us last week and the process still seems sounds for him. He is still a viable place in most other weeks, however, his matchup this week against the Philadelphia Eagles is one of the worst matchups for any defensive lineman as the Eagles have one of the strongest overall offensive lines. They have the lowest pressure rate allowed in the league at 19% and 3rd best sack conversion rate at 8%. Green is someone to keep on your bench but look to another possible start for this week.

START: Nicholas Morrow, Chicago Bears, LB31

Mr. Morrow is in a situation where he was already seeing 100% snaps but was doing that with a very talented producer in Roquan Smith. With Roquan Smith moving on to the Baltimore Ravens Morrow is the guy in the middle of the defense and they should still be taking plenty of snaps as one of the lower tier defense this year. 82 tackles and 3 sacks made by Smith are now available for the rest of that Bears defense. Now, realistically, Morrow will not absorb most of the this, but even a significant portion will move Morrow up into the a consistent LB2 range week-to-week. If Morrow is not available, Jack Sanborn is a deeper look.

START: David Long Jr., Tennessee Titans, LB20

David Long Jr. continues to be the linebacker you want from the Titans as he delivers top-tier numbers week in and week out. Of the 7 games he’s played this year, he’s had at least 8 tackles in 5 of them. He’s also contributed 2 INTs and 4 PDs. He has no serious competition for snaps and with this level of production, he should be a top 15 LB or better moving forward. This level of production combined with his high quality of play (his PFF defensive grade of 74.7 is 13th among LBs) bodes well for his chances of getting a new deal from the Titans, which makes him a more stable asset in dynasty leagues. No matter what format you play, though, he’s a top option.

SIT: Isaiah Simmons, Arizona Cardinals, LB35

Isaiah Simmons went from playing over 90% of the snap last season to being sub-70% snap count this season. This kind of usage for a player that is designated as an LB but plays a large amount of slot corner (47% of total snaps) is less than ideal. Pair that with limited IDP production of just over 4 tackles / game. He has found ways to make some splash plays at least to make him relevant in some weeks with 1 INT (returned for TD), 1 sack, 2 FFs, and a FR. Isaiah has looked suspect in run defense at best but has shown some capability in pass coverage, this does not bode well for his usage as a LB. His boom weeks are only going to be something you can get by playing him week in and and week out, which means you will experience the down weeks too. Sad to think about a top 20 NFL draft pick be so under-utilized, but this might just be the Isaiah Simmons experience going forward.

 

START: Andre Cisco, Jacksonville Jaguars, DB45

Andre Cisco has come into his 2nd year and delivered some strong performance so far this year. He is playing 99% of the snaps so far this season and he is doing this primarily from a deep safety role, which tends to have less consistency but some find a way to be very relevant for IDP. So far this year, Cisco has been able to be a viable starter. His production of 4.75 tackles / game and 2 INTs on the year have given him a baseline that keeps him from killing you weekly. This week he has a matchup with the Las Vegas Raiders, they are top half of the league in intermediate and deep throws and Carr and Carr is top 10 in turnover worthy plays on those deep throws and with Cisco playing primarily deep, this is a matchup that should have some big-play upside for Cisco and a nice floor to balance it out.

START: Xavier Woods, Carolina Panthers, DB41

Xavier Woods had the distinction of being one of the very few defenders to have played 100% of all their snaps last season (1,208 total) and so far this year, he has played a strong 99% of the snaps this season. Xavier has played a strong number of snaps in the “IDP Sweet Spot” with a 51% total there. His production hasn’t matched the injured Jeremy Chinn’s production in years past while Chinn has been injured, but the process is sound and with a matchup against the Bengals this week who have feed Mixon the ball but have struggled to produce bigger plays with him, those in the sweet spot should be able to capitalize on this matchup this week and Woods should be one of those benefiting.

SIT: Jessie Bates III, Cincinnati Bengals, DB26

On the flip side of that IDP matchup, we have Jessie Bates III. Bates has been an IDP stalwart since coming into the league in 2018 and he has averaged 6.5 tackles per / game over that 4-year span, which is quite impressive in it’s right for any safety, but paired with the fact that he has consistently played as a deep safety, even better! However, this season he is averaging 4.5 tackles / game, a full two less per game! Panthers offense has looked revitalized (somehow?) ever since moving on from CMC and Matt Rhule, but the Falcons are not exactly a tough matchup and I am willing to give them one game due to the shakeup against the Bucs. However, there is a reason the QBs leading this team have not been highly sought after by others. Halloween has past and the Panthers offense will turn back into the pumpkin again. With a lower tier of production overall this year, the matchup against Carolina, it is time to find a different option for that DB2/3 role in your lineup.

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 8

Updated: October 27th 2022

Week 7 is in the rearview mirror and we have a smaller amount of byes this week, but we still want to dig into our lineups and find those ideal matchups, positive or negative trends, or some potential buys / sells. Week 7’s starts and sits played out pretty well for the most part, and we should have a newer crowd joining in now with our recent inclusion with the IDP Show! For those who are not familiar, with this article, we are trying to identify some of those fringe players or deeper plays for our IDP lineups. With that brief reset, let’s get ourselves into week 8 with this week’s callouts.

WEEK 7 RECAP
DL:
Start: Dorance Armstrong (1 solo, 2 assist, 1 sack, FR, TFL, QB hit)


Sit: Emmanuel Ogbah (Inactive, hopefully you pivoted to have a backup)


LB:

Start: Nicholas Morrow (3 solos, 2 assists)

Sit: Cody Barton (5 solos)

 

DB:
Start: Deshon Elliott (5 solos, 4 assist, TFL. Snaps trending down, pay attention)

Sit: Justin Simmons (3 solos)

 

START: Kayvon Thibodeaux, New York Giants, DL31

Since returning from injury, Thibodeaux has seen consistent usage in this Giants defense. Since Week 3, he’s averaged 77% of snaps, including 84.3% in the last 3 games. He’s also seeing unique utilization and pre-snap alignment in Wink Martindale’s defense, which is thriving with blue-chip talents like Thibodeaux. The pressures have been there too, with 13 over the past 4 games. However, those pressures have only resulted in 1 sack. While the conversion rate of 7.6% is disappointing, keep in mind Thibodeaux just finished his 5th NFL game. What should be encouraging at this point is the number of pressures because that tells us: the sacks are coming. And there’s room to improve that pressure rate, which has been 10.7% over the last 4 games. Week 7 looks like a favorable matchup against Seattle, which allows a slightly below-average pressure rate, but the conversion-to-sack rate is one of the highest so far this year. And with the amount of pressure that the Giants have been bringing this year, it looks like a great time to fire up Thibodeaux!

START: Rasheem Green, Houston Texans, DL51

Green doesn’t have perfect usage, but it is still ideal as a baseline. His snap percentage over the last 5 games has been 57%, good for 38 snaps a game. The Texans have put Greenard on IR this past week creating a bigger need from the DL rotation. He has shown increased success in the run game in the past weeks (73.2 week 4, 89.2 week 5) along with a good 11.2% pass-rush pressure rate. The upcoming matchup with the Titans offer two paths to success with Tennessee’s current QB situation. Tannehill plays and the Titans 31st ranked offensive line in terms of pressure rate allowed. Green should find a way to get after an injured Tannehill with the favorable matchup and previous success. Now if Malik Willis is taking snaps, you might think he is too mobile for Green to be effective. But, the real catch is, younger, mobile QBs they tend to hold on to the ball much longer in an attempt to make plays or due to inexperience reading a defense. This leads to increased sack opportunities in its own right. Green is an upside play, but this is a great week to go for it!

SIT: Chandler Jones, Las Vegas Raiders, DL38

Chandler Jones is a well-known IDP name for those who have played, however, his time might be past now. Chandler converted his first sack (only a 1/2 as well) this week. He has had below average pass-rush pressure rate at 7.6%. This week he gets a below average matchup against New Orleans. They are allowing only a 23% pressure rate (tied 9th best) and 14% sack conversion (tied 14th best). On top of the poor IDP performances, his PFF grades are some of the lowest of his long career. The final kicker to this? He is doing this while Maxx Crosby is dominating and drawing almost all of the attention along that defensive front too. It might be a time to move on from all of our shares of Chandler Jones if you are still holding.

START: Quay Walker, Green Bay Packers, LB30

Quay has come on strong for a rookie playing an average of 45 snaps per game and 76% of the total snaps with De’Vondre Campbell entrenched as the LB1. He has found a way to be efficient with his time with a very good 16% tackle efficiency, which at this point should be indicative of what we should expect to see most games this year. Even with a less than ideal snap count below 80% or being closer to 90%, the Buffalo Bills are the matchup this week and are top 10 in plays run this year as well as top 10 in passing plays ran. Quay has shown a greater strength in coverage while needing some work in run defense. The Bills are an ideal matchup for Quay to produce numbers this week. And we will see the Packers defense in this matchup once more in this article. #foreshadowing

START: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Cleveland Browns, LB27

The Cleveland Browns have had a very ambiguous linebacker room for most of this year. Things only got more unclear with the signing of Deion Jones. However, Jacob Phillips injury (pectoral, season-ending) should set us up for the rest of the year. Jones seems to be the one (and has the experience of it) to wear the green dot for play calling and see close to 100% of snaps, if not this next, then the following. Who steps up into that LB2 role should JOK. He saw his highest snap count this past week, one of his best graded games per PFF this year, and made a beautiful punch out for the game to keep Cleveland fighting in the game. The biggest challenge to snaps would be the next LB in Sione Takitaki and his usage would align more with Jones leaving JOK’s snaps safe for him. JOK may not be a 100% snap player this season, but he will see enough snaps to be relevant. Finally, his matchup this week against Cincinnati and their significant uptick in passing rate in all game scripts, bode well for JOK to be involved quite a bit on Monday night.

SIT: Tae Crowder, New York Giants, LB68

Tae Crowder was the guy to start the year with 3 out of the first 4 weeks having 100% of the snaps. The last two weeks we saw it drop under 70% and with Landon Collins getting acclimated more, Crowder’s snaps are even more in danger. This alongside his bottom of the barrel performances per PFF grading (29.4 overall) Crowder’s job does not look very secure. He additionally has missed 11 tackles already this season too. He is someone that you should be looking to move on from for the season and if anyone sees value, try and move on.

START: Adrian Amos, Green Bay Packers, DB50

Adrian Amos has had great usage this year, outside of week 4’s injury against the Patriots, with 100% outside of that. And his sweet spot alignment (box, slot, DL) has been up over the last 3 weeks at 59%!! This is reflected in his production uptick too, 20 combined tackles, TFL, QB hit in the last 3 games. These games have also seen more defensive snaps versus some earlier games, but that should still be the case this week as the Packers take on the Buffalo Bills Sunday night. This should be a 65+ snap game and that combined with the ideal and increased sweet spot usage, Amos is a strong play this week.

START: Eric Rowe, Miami Dolphins, DB45

This is one of the worst reasons for someone to move up the board, but with Brandon Jones season-ending ACL injury, Eric Rowe is next in line to play more snaps. Eric was already cutting into Jones’ usage in smaller bits when they were both healthy and active this season. Miami’s defense loves to utilize their safeties up in the box and blitz them with good frequency too. This is a nice pick up and play option for streaming or taking the big upside swing for a sack or turnover (assuming your league has big play scoring).

SIT: Kyle Dugger, New England Patriots, DB27

Kyle Dugger was an IDP fantasy darling his first two years in the league and has made some big plays already this year (59 yard fumble return for TD in week 5, INT and 2 PDs in week 6). However, this season has been plagued with some injury and with the Belichick-ien way rotating defensives players, Adrian Phillips, Devin McCourty, Jabrill Peppers, and Kyle Dugger the key players in this conversation, missing time is not a great way to try and lock in your spot. Limited usage combined with the matchup of the Jets this week, who are only running 54 plays per game offensively means a very small pool of opportunities. Now Dugger can make big plays for sure, but the injury limitations, the reduced snap count, and overall limited chances against the Jets, let’s give Dugger a week to rest on your fantasy bench.

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 7

Updated: October 19th 2022

Week 7 is upon us and a lot of our season are shaping up to feeling great, trying to find a few more wins, or… hopefully for none of you, starting to think about next year. Regardless of how your doing, I hope you keep coming back and paying attention to the players and the process, this is kind of effort helps you better prepare for the next season at a minimum. Week 6 was rough for me, hopefully it was kinder to you and I right this ship for week 7. So let’s get to it!

DL:
Start: Odafe Oweh (2 solos)


Sit: Von Miller (2 sacks! 4 solos, TFLS, 2 QB hits) – He played his highest snap total this year! Maybe he is going to be a high end play going forward? Or Buffalo is saving him for bigger passing matchups?


LB:

Start: Alex Singleton (19 solos, 2 assists, 2 TFLs, 1 QB hit, PD)

Sit: Zaven Collins (2 sacks! 5 solos, 4 assists, 2 TFLs, 2 QB Hits, 1 PD)

 

DB:
Start: Chuck Clark (6 solos, FR)

Sit: Jalen Ramsey (3 solos, 2 TFLs, 1 sack, 1 QB hit) – His day maybe “saved” with the sack, but the process seemed sound for this one

 

START: Dorance Armstrong, Dallas Cowboys, DL40

  • Snaps are solid, but not perfect. 214 total snaps. 600+ snap pace
  • Very effective with limited snaps, 12.8% pressure rate.
  • 68 pff pass rush grade on the season. Converting 17 pressures into 5 sacks
  • Limited tackle floor so playing for upside (does have a blocked punt too)
  • Very positive matchups not just this week against Detroit, but next week in Chicago as well

SIT: Emmanuel Ogbah, Miami Dolphins, DL23

  • Solid snaps, 259 total. 700+ snap pace.
  • Limited production creating pressure, 6.9% pressure rate this year
  • Converted only one pressure into a sack, limited tackle floor or big play upside
  • Pittsburgh matchup is slightly negative matchup for Miami overall

START: Nicholas Morrow, Chicago Bears, LB34

  • Perfect utilization, 100% snaps on the season, 397 total, 1,100+ pace
  • Targeted 3+ times each game, nice starter for tackles
  • Patriots 6th most rushing attempts this year, great tackles opportunities
  • Bears allowing 63 plays per game, a step up for Patriots average of 59 for increased opportunities

SIT: Cody Barton, Seattle Seahawks, LB23

  • Snap count has continually dropped over the last three weeks, (62%, 77%, 39%!!)
  • His defensive PFF grades have gone up in the reduced role, looks more effective for an NFL defense on reduced utilization
  • Already has limited upside with only 15 pass rush snaps
  • LAC should be a high snap count game for Seattle, but the limited utilization is not safe at all without an injury

START: DeShon Elliott, Detroit Lions, DB28

  • Detroit’s defense is playing the 6th most snaps this year on a per game basis
  • Playing near the perfect snap count, 100% most games this year
  • With injuries in the Detroit secondary, the last 2 weeks have seen Elliott’s snap alignment shift to a near 50% split into the box
  • 10 solo tackles in each of those last 2 weeks
  • Dallas with Dak back should present plenty of defensive opportunities this week

SIT: Justin Simmons, Denver Broncos, DB25

  • Coming off injury had a nice tackle game (6 total) w/ a PD
  • Produced solid tackles but with a 93 snap game, 6.4% tackle efficiency. Low for a DB
  • 18 and 21 passing attempts for the Jets the last two games. Efficient running the ball. Matchup figures to be neutral most of the game
  • Looked solid off his injury, but 100% snap rate is ideal but still a heavy alignment (60% deep safety)
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