IDP Start/Sit: Week 3

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By Jake

Updated: September 20th 2023

We have been looking good on our start decisions, but the sits/fades have not worked out, yet. But as we get more information from what teams are doing and how they want to do it, we will make even better-informed decisions. And let’s start making some of those decisions for week 3.

Week 2 Recap

DL:

Start: Khalil Mack (4 solos, 1 assist, 1 sack) 👍

Sit: Quinnen Williams (6 solos) 👎

LB:

Start: Azeez Al-Shaair (5 solos, 5 assists) 👍

Sit: De’Vondre Campbell (9 solos, 4 assists) 👎

DB:

Start: Jevon Holland (8 solos, 2 assists, 1 PBU) 👍

Sit: Marcus Maye (6 solos, 1 assist) 👎

Week 3 Starts & Sits

START: Gregory Rousseau, Buffalo Bills, DL36 (Edge 26)

Gregory Rousseau is one of those “in-between” players for me. He has the talent, but doesn’t get high-end snap counts, and in doing so, he ends up making the big plays at time that get us excited about his upside but the snap percentages near 60% limited his ability to have a more consistent floor. This week though, he has such a favorable matchup against the Washington Commanders, that I am happy to fire up Rousseau as a strong DL option.

Washington has allowed one of the highest pressure rates at 29% so for this season, and teams have been able to take advantage of that as well, registering a just as impressive, 24% sack conversion rate. Rousseau has been able to produce in the pressure department this season as well, with 6 pressures on 33 pass-rush attempts for a very good, 18.18% pressure rate. This matchup looks like a great one for Rousseau to register his first sack of the season (and maybe more?).

SIT: Joe Tryon-Shoyinka, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, DL35 (Edge 25)

Joe Tryon-Shoyinka was a player I thought had some great “buy-low” value this off-season due to the path to the volume he seemingly had for the Buccaneers for the 2023 season. JTS is in a similar situation he is receiving only 50-60% of the snaps like Rousseau, but he does not have the consistent performances to justify his value.

He is coming off arguably the best game of his career against the Bears, but I would take that with a grain of salt for the time being, as that was a favorable matchup.

Now he gets the Philadelphia Eagles who have one of the lowest numbers in the league for both pressure rate (21%) and sack conversion (6%). The Eagles also showed us their willingness to lean heavily into what is working for them, and if they can establish a successful run game again, pass-rush opportunities could be very hard to come by for JTS and the Bucs.

START: Alex Anzalone, Detroit Lions, LB35

I might get kicked out of The IDP Show space for even suggesting this, but Anzalone seems in line for some great stats this coming Sunday. The Detroit Lions take on the Atlanta Falcons who have been very efficient moving the ball on the ground so far. They are middle of the back after 2 weeks in plays ran but they are 4th in total run plays this season. And their week 1 matchup, plays ran were skewed lower thanks to multiple turnovers in their opponents’ territory for a short field.

Detroit’s defense has not been anything special yet and is likely to allow Atlanta to pile up a good handful of plays again. If we take a look at the 2 primary LBs from those first matchups and what they did combined:

Week 1 – Panthers had 10 combined LB tackles on 51 snaps and Derrick Brown had an outlier 8 tackle game

Week 2 – Packers had 32 combined LB tackles on 82 snaps

The answer likely lies somewhere in the middle, but the game script, Anzalone’s usage, and Arthur Smith’s extreme penchant to run the ball, set nicely for the Detroit LBs and Alex Anzalone.

SIT: Nick Bolton, Kansas City Chiefs, LB10

Nick Bolton is a guy you likely spent high capital getting on your roster and might not be viable to sit him, but at least manage your expectations for this week.

The Kansas City Chiefs take on the Chicago Bears and the Bears have not been good on either side of the ball up to this point. This doesn’t bode well for the IDP opportunities and Nick Bolton. First, the low number of plays ran for the Bears since they cannot sustain drives as they are just averaging 60 plays per game so far this year. Then, you pair that with Nick Bolton’s usage of 96% in week 1 and then 79% in week 2! He was not coming off the field last year, and now all of a sudden we are seeing this, it makes me nervous about Bolton’s upside.

Additionally, the Chiefs’ offense should not struggle to move the ball against the Bears’ defense meaning even less time for the Bears to have the ball and run plays for Nick Bolton and the other Chiefs’ IDPs.

You can still start Bolton due to his ability to make plays around the ball and be efficient, but if you can pivot away this week or construct your lineup with a lower floor in mind, I highly recommend it.

START: Dax Hill, Cincinnati Bengals, DB52 (S47)

Dax Hill has had a nice start to this season for the Bengals. However, the Bengals haven’t had the best start to their season. And it has showed with their inability to keep opponents off the field. Hill has already played 99% of the snaps for a total of 147 snaps. Even with the volume, Hill has showed strong efficiency with 10.8% tackle efficiency. He has added an INT and a PBU as well. His sweet spot alignment of 40.8% is not elite, but it is enough to help give his floor in place for IDP production.

Now, enter the Los Angeles Rams who have surprised us with their performances this year and have gotten back some of that magic we saw during their title run in 2021 season. And in doing so, they are leading the NFL in plays ran with 156. This aligns with the Bengals performance this year and I expect more of the same for both the Rams’ offense and the Bengals defense. Even without the the strong efficiency, there is enough volume that Dax Hill should outplay DB52 by quite a bit this week.

SIT: Kyle Dugger, New England Patriots, DB12 (S12)

Kyle Dugger is one of my favorite IDP DBs this season, but you can only do so much in the DB role for IDP. And the opportunity for Dugger this week looks bleak facing off against the New York Jets. They have averaged just under 50 plays a game the first two weeks with Zach Wilson leading the offense. Even if Dugger is getting 100% of the snaps, 49 is not a great opportunity. Pair that with the offensive line of the Jets that is allowing plenty of pressures and sacks already, the chance the ball even gets close to Dugger is not looking great.

The Patriots defense also showed the willingness to play Dugger primarily deep, although, this was likely to help counter the deep routes of Tyreek Hill more than a desire to consistently play him there. He has played 61% either in the box, at DL, or in the slot, but even that ideal usage, might not be enough to see Dugger deliver a top 12 performance this week.

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 2

Reply

By Jake

Updated: September 13th 2023

Your offensive side of the ball probably felt a little rough in week 1. But IDP as a whole looked great, and the choices from last week’s article weren’t too bad either. The process checked out for us at DL. LB looked OK, would have liked to see a bit more opportunity for Elliss in pass-rush. The Cowboy’s defense as a unit looked great, but with some big plays and a bad Giants offense, Kearse never did a whole lot. On to week 2!

Week 1 Recap

DL:

Start: Will Anderson Jr (4 solos, 2 assist, TFL, sack, 2 QB hits. 19.1 pts) 👍

Sit: Aidan Hutchinson (3 solos, assist, 3 QB hits. 10.5 pts) 👍

LB:

Start: Kaden Elliss (6 solos, 3 assists. 9.8 pts) 👎

Sit: Jamin Davis (4 solos, 2 assists, TFL. 9.5 pts) 👍

DB:

Start: Jayron Kearse (2 solos, 5 assists. 6.3 pts) 👎

Sit: Jeremy Chinn (3 solos, 4 assists. 6.8 pts) 👍

Week 1 Starts & Sits

START: Khalil Mack, Los Angeles Chargers, DL38 (Edge28)

Khalil Mack against the Titans is shaping up to be a very plus matchup overall. The Titans offensive live was a mess in week 1 with the third worst pressure rate allowed at 29%. The Titans also threw the ball 62.7% of the time last week despite being in a fairly neutral game script. If those things continue and Mack shows us more of what he did in week 1, a sack+ type of game is definitely in the cards. He generated 6 pressures on 35 pass-rush snaps for a whopping 17.1% pass-rush pressure rate. He did not convert any into a sack and his tackles were limited, but I am excited for a potential big game for him this week.

SIT: Quinnen Williams, New York Jets, DL19 (DT2)

“Blasphemy!”… I know. You might not have a better option than Quinnen and I am not saying you can’t start him. But definitely temper expectations this week, in my opinion. The Cowboys just faced a very strong front in the Giants and the Cowboys seemed to have a plan to get the ball out quickly with Dak at a league-low of 2.11 seconds in his time to throw. Pair that with a game script that is very much in question with the Jets offense and its identity without Aaron Rodgers.

I love Quinnen and his one of the top DL’s in the game today and will likely make a handful of plays, but I would reduce expectations, or if you are fortunate enough to have depth at the position, consider others in a better overall situation this week.

START: Azeez Al-Shaair, Tennessee Titans, LB23

On the other side of the Chargers and Titans matchup, Al-Shaair looks like a great play at LB with a Chargers offense that was efficient and able to run a whopping 76 plays last week but more amazingly, had 40 rush attempts. Kellen Moore seems to have a game plan to run the ball so far and Azeez should be able to do a lot of the work in the middle of that defense making plays. His initial performance of 5 total tackles should be an easy top with the upside of 9-10 tackles, assuming league average tackle efficiency of 12%.

I like Azeez as a high-end LB2 with the strong tackle floor and likely, positive game script for the Chargers offense.

SIT: De’Vondre Campbell, Green Bay Packers, LB16

Campbell and the Packers take on the Falcons in week 2 and what appears to be another year of the Arthur Smith “run the ball at all costs” show. The Falcons ran an impressively low 48 plays in their victory in week 1, some of this was due to short fields, and some of it, is just due to the nature of their gameplan.

Campbell did not play 100% of the snaps either, he was closer to 80%. And 80% of 50 snaps at 12% tackle efficiency, is not a great floor. Even if you boost the floor a bit because of a focus on RB targets, it still leaves us wanting more. So without more certainty around snap counts and a less-than-ideal matchup, I am fading Campbell this week.

START: Jevon Holland, Miami Dolphins, DB39 (S38)

Jevon Holland already had a great start in week 1 with 13 total tackles. A lot of this has to do with his strong alignment usage with 22 box snaps and 18 slot snaps; that’s 50% of his snaps in ideal alignment. He did this with a strong PFF performance too, 77+ across the board, and peaking at 86.4 for his overall grade. Now he takes a great week 1 performance into New England. With Bill O’ Brien as the new OC, the Patriots showed they aren’t afraid to air it out and against a strong offense in Miami, it is likely we see the Patriots throwing it a lot again. Holland has a good base with his alignment and this matchup looks like it will be a favorable one for the Dolphins secondary.

SIT: Marcus Maye, New Orleans Saints, DB28 (S27)

Marcus Maye generally plays the “deep safety” role and he played 69.8% of his snaps in that role in week 1 against the Titans. Now he takes on the Panthers and a rookie QB with limited weapons and that showed in how the passing attack looked in week 1. Bryce Young only attempted 2 passes beyond 20 yards and 8 passes beyond 10 yards. This means 28 of his attempts were less than yards downfield. The alignment and the matchup are not a favorable one, for a tackle floor or for the opportunity to make splash plays. Maye is not a great play for this week.

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 1

Reply

By Jake

Updated: September 7th 2023

Welcome back, folks! It is time to kick off the 2023 NFL and fantasy season and I can’t think of a better way to do it than to talk Start and Sit options for some of our favorite IDPs. For some context for our newer readers, I am reviewing weekly rankings from Jase Abbey over at TheIDPShow.com and looking for players in that 15-40 range that we should have some greater confidence in (Start) or someone whom we have a little more concern about their output this week (Sit). These aren’t hard and fast recommendations, but hopefully, a great way for you to more thoroughly assess your lineups each week and for the season. Let’s get to it.

Week 1 Starts & Sits

START: Will Anderson Jr., Houston Texans, DL27 (Edge 21)

The talent and draft capital for Will Anderson are undeniable. And the matchup against a strong Baltimore Ravens might not be our normal target for an edge rusher matchup. However, when looking for better values for our edge rushers, we love QBs who like to hold on to the ball and Lamar Jackson is one of the best at that. His time to throw last year was second only to Justin Fields and in his 378 dropbacks, teams converted 27 sacks in those dropbacks (7.14%). In the last two years, that conversion rate is at 7.6%. Now the Ravens are set to run more offensive, and specifically, pass plays, we have a floor of 2.5 – 3 sacks given up for the Ravens.

Who better to capitalize on a QB holding on to the ball too long and moving around the pocket, than an edge rusher with the quickness and lateral agility to bring him down behind the line? While he likely won’t play Maxx Crosby volume snaps, Anderson projects as the leader rusher and should see a healthy number of snaps in a shallower edge room. Great volume play, a strong sack upside, Will Anderson is closer to a high-end edge 1 and DL2 for me this week.

SIT: Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit Lions, DL9 (Edge 9)

I love Aidan Hutchinson’s year 2 growth and have plenty of him in my lineups. However, Patrick Mahomes is one of the least sacked QBs over the last 3 years. In fact only 76 times over 2,110 dropbacks for a sack rate of only 3.6%. The game should have an above-average number of plays ran and still some good opportunity based on plays and snaps, but the sack ceiling should be lowered for this matchup.

Hutchinson showed he can make plays in other aspects of the game last year with 3 interceptions, but also had a limited tackle floor with 39 combined tackles. He will likely have an exciting year 2 in 2023, but his campaign is likely to get off to a rocky start. I view Hutchinson more as a mid-to-low end DL2.

START: Kaden Elliss, Atlanta Falcons, LB46

If you have heard me at any point this offseason, you have likely heard me talk about my excitement for Kaden Elliss. There is the contract this offseason, 3 years and $21.5 million. The familiarity with the defensive coordinator, Ryan Nielsen, who was his former DC for the last few years in New Orleans. The strong pass-rush production in his half-season role when Pete Werner was injured. Wearing the green dot this preseason. Needless to say, I am excited to see what Elliss can do with a full-time role.

Week 1, the Falcons and Elliss take on the Panthers. The Panthers have an average, at best, offensive line and have struggled this preseason. Atlanta has struggled to generate a consistent pass rush the last several years, Elliss could be primed for good volume, even in a lower projected matchup with a nice ceiling play too. This combination makes Elliss a high-end LB3 with an upside for even more.

SIT: Jamin Davis, Washington Commanders, LB28

Jamin Davis’s offseason was a bit of a roller coaster. The ups of becoming the clear LB1 for the Commanders and the potential leader of this defense. Then his subsequent off-the-field issues with his reckless driving case and the potential impact to his 2023 season. His case was recently slated for March 2024 and the NFL generally doesn’t pursue until court cases are resolved.

Now coming into week 1, he gets a matchup against the the Arizona Cardinals with the lowest over/under of the week, 38.5. An implied point total of 16 for the Cardinals doesn’t bode well for the offense staying on the field and the Commanders and Jamin Davis making a lot of plays. He has the talent to deliver an LB2 finish this week, but with a weaker floor this week, I am fading Jamin as a low-end LB3.

START: Jayron Kearse, Dallas Cowboys, DB27 (Safety 27)

Dan Quinn and this Cowboys defense have preferred to run three safeties (Kearse, Donovan Wilson, Malik Hooker) with one of them aligning more closely to the line of scrimmage. Kearse has been an IDP beneficiary and the alignment has helped a ton. He spent 74.11% of his snaps last season in either the DL, Box, or Slot alignments. Now with Wilson potentially out for week 1, Kearse should have a strong hold of the valuable snaps.

The New York Giants matchup projects to yield an above-average amount of opportunities for the Dallas Cowboys defense and with a path with reduced resistance for Kearse with Wilson on the shelf for week 1, Kearse has a likely outcome as a midrange DB2 this week.

SIT: Jeremy Chinn, Carolina Panthers, DB22 (Safety 22)

Jeremy Chinn has been an IDP darling since exploding on the scene is rookie year in 2020. This season though, the final year of his rookie contract, Chinn is in a precarious situation with incumbent safety, Xavier Woods who played over 1,000 snaps the last two season and big free agent signing, Vonn Bell. Bell has played over 1,000 snaps the last three seasons. Woods and Bell project to the be primary safeties while Chinn is likely heavily utilized in the slot defender role. Normally slot usage isn’t a death knell for IDP, however, if it is limited and the only role, that is not ideal. And this is what we saw in Chinn’s utilization this preseason.

Pair this with a poor passing performance opponent in the Atlanta Falcons, Chinn’s potential reduced usage, and the crowded safety room, Chinn doesn’t feel like a safe play for me and I would have him as a low-end DB3.

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Reply

By Jake

Updated: December 28th 2022

This is it. The final week of most fantasy seasons. This was my worst week of the year and I hope it didn’t cost any of you readers your matchups. My apologies and it motivates me to get you those right plays for your matchups. Let’s lock down those lineups and support one last victory!
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show are the ECR from Fantasy Pros each week.

WEEK 16 RECAP
DL:
Start: Greg Rousseau (1 solo, TFL)
Start: Jaelan Phillips (5 solos, 1 assist. A decent enough performance to support a DL spot)

Sit: J.J. Watt (5 solos, 2 assist, 2 TFLs, 2 QB hits. He looked like vintage JJ out there and played 95% of snaps!!!)

LB:

Start: Joe Thomas (6 solos, 1 assist. Not awful, but not good enough for a playoff LB spot)

Start: Deion Jones (2 solos, 1 assist, 39% of snaps. I am done with Cleveland and their LB room)

Sit: Jamin Davis (6 solos, 2 assist, TFL. He did his job for the week)

DB:
Start: Tariq Woolen (1 solo, 1 assist, 1 PD. Not enough in a big week)

Start: Jason Pinnock (2 solos, 1 assist, QB hit. 100% of the snaps, just limited production)

Sit: Donovan Wilson (6 solos, 1 assist, TFL. I don’t know that he was a top 10 this week, but he did enough to be a strong play)

START: Demarcus Lawrence, Dallas Cowboys, DL27

Demarcus Lawrence hasn’t posted a sack in the last 5 weeks. He has however, generated 20 pressures, for a respectable 13.9% pass-rush pressure rate. That recent success, coupled with a matchup against the Titans who have a league worst pressure rate allowed at 34% and are tied for 9th worst in sack conversion rate at 17% sets up for a strong matchup. Throw in the fact that Malik Willis is starting and has looked like a fish out of water trying to throw the ball, on 28 drop backs his time to throw was 3.56 seconds, which is a benefit for any pass rusher to have a QB who holds on to the ball longer. And no Derrick Henry (had an injury designation, short week, and this game has zero impact on their playoff status), the Titans will be in a rough spot this week and Lawrence is a high-end DL2 this week with big sack upside.

START: Preston Smith, Green Bay Packers, DL41

Preston Smith hasn’t produced a high-end amount of pressures with 11 pressures over his last 5 games. But he still produced a modest 9.7% pass-rush pressure rate on limited opportunities. But he has been effective with those opportunities converted it into 6 sacks. And with Minnesota the matchup this week, it is an ideal matchup to get pressures and convert them. The Vikings are tied for second worst in pressures allowed rate at 30% and tied for 6th for sack conversion rate at 18%. In a must-win game for the Packers, Smith is setup to be able to deliver a strong IDP championship performance. Preston Smith is a low-end DL2 this week.

SIT: Chandler Jones, Las Vegas Raiders, DL18

Chandler Jones has had a bit of an up and down year with the bulk of his production coming in weeks 12 – 14. The recent production has been nice for IDP players who were able to make the play on him, however, his elbow injury will most likely sideline him or at the very least, limit his overall production. And San Francisco is a tough matchup regardless. I wouldn’t personally have the stones to roll Chandler out and I would try to pivot to another option entirely this week.

START: Quay Walker, Green Bay Packers, LB33

Quay Walker had lofty expectations coming into this year with his draft capital and Green Bay kept good on their word of getting to a point of having 2 LBs on the field as much as possible (limiting substitutions and sub-packages). Since Campbell came back to the lineup full time in week 13, Quay has seen snap counts of 100%, 96%, and 96%. And on the season he has a delivered a good 13.2% tackle efficiency, which is a great first year. Now with the consistent top-end usage (nearly 100% as a 2nd LB), and consistent production, Quay should in consideration for a top 30 LB most weeks. This week against a strong offense in Minnesota in which there should be increased opportunities, he should be a low-end LB2.

START: Nicholas Morrow, Chicago Bears, LB37

Nicholas Morrow was the green dot wearer for the Bears all season and even with that consistent high-end snap count, he was not able to move past Roquan Smith and Jack Sanborn in terms of IDP relevance. With Smith gone via trade and Sanborn done due to injury, Morrow has seemingly stepped up and been delivering better IDP production over the last 2 weeks. In a must-win matchup for the Lions, I think we see plenty of opportunities for the Bears defense to make plays. Morrow is a low-end LB2 this week.

SIT: Bobby Okereke, Indianapolis Colts, LB29

The Colts LB room has some question marks moving forward beyond 2022, and as such, Okereke has seen at times his snap count drop a bit lower, into the 70% range at times. He has still found a way to be efficient with reduced snaps, but with a season that feels like they are giving up, it is a strong chance players who aren’t under contract for 2023, like Bobby O, might see some snaps taken away in favor for others. This is purely speculative as we have no coaching history to reference for Jeff Saturday, but the fact they are keeping Nick Foles in, tells me what I need to know. I would fade Bobby and treat him as a fringe LB3.

START: Ifeatu Melifonwu, Detroit Lions, DB132

Ifeatu Melifonwu stepped in for the injured DeShon Elliott last week and contributed 8 combined tackles and a TFL. A very usable game for IDP. He spent the 66% of his time in the sweet spot and would assume he will again against another team willing to run the ball in the Chicago Bears. And with DeShon Elliott logging a DNP (did not participate) for the Wednesday practice, it is looking like Melifonwu should get the start again and be in the DB3 range.

START: Nasir Adderley, Los Angeles Chargers, DB65

Nasir Adderley has been the other starting safety alongside Derwin James most of this season. Derwin has been the one in more of that sweet spot role or even more of a play-making position closer to the line of scrimmage. With Derwin suffering a concussion on that brutal hit to Ashton Dulin in Monday night’s game, I would be looking for other options to start instead of James. In comes Adderley. He has played more of the box snaps as the other safety and would be the most likely candidate to try and step in for James, as much as possible. Adderley has had modest IDP numbers for most of the season, but can be a fringe DB3 in a pinch for those missing James or those just needing help at the DB spot.

SIT: Darrick Forrest, Washington Commanders, DB28

Darrick Forrest has been a pleasant revelation for Washington with Kamren Curl’s injuries this off season and he has shown some great IDP value as well. However, his matchup this week against the Cleveland Browns is less than ideal as they have struggled to sustain drives since Deshaun Watson’s return as he tries to find his form and their willingness to attack downfield is not a major part of their gameplan to date. Forrest being a primarily deep safety as Jeremy Reaves stepped into the box role with Curl’s absence, leaves a bit to be desired for Forrest this week. I would lower expectations for Forrest for a fringe DB3 at best.

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Reply

By Jake

Updated: December 22nd 2022

I hope just like this article, you and your fantasy team are moving on to week 16! But if not, you can come read and learn a bit about end of year and get a head start on players and things to watch for moving forward too! Regardless, I hope you and yours have a healthy and happy holidays!! Now let’s play some IDP fantasy football.
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show are the ECR from Fantasy Pros each week.

WEEK 15 RECAP
DL:
Start: Azeez Ojulari (0.5 sack, 2 solos, 2 assists, 2 QB hits. A solid game, easily overshadowed by Kayvon’s huge game)
Start: Kwity Paye (Sack, 5 solos, 2 TFLs, 2 QB hits. Paye flashing a strong game.)

Sit: Jeffery Simmons (Sack, 4 solos, 2 assists, TFL, QB hit. Simmons’ ankle seemed fine and he delivered in a big way)

LB:

Start: Jack Sanborn (5 solos. He didn’t goose you, but could’ve been so much more if he didn’t get hurt early in the 3rd quarter)

Start: Zaire Franklin (6 solos, 4 assist, FF. Another strong game)

Sit: Devin Lloyd (7 solos, 2 assists. Lloyd looking the rookie LB for the rest of this season, at least)

DB:
Start: Andrew Adams (4 solos, 2 assists. For where he was ranked and probably available, not a terrible performance)

Start: Marcus Jones (4 solos, assist, PD, 25 return yards. He took 2 offensive snaps, no stats. Saw 100% of the IDP snaps though)

Sit: Jalen Thompson (3 solos, 6 assists. Strong delivery in the tackle game, a lot of assisted tackles though.)

START: Greg Rousseau, Buffalo Bills, DL27

Greg Rousseau has done a wonderful job as a pass-rusher this season and his PFF grade shows this with a very good 81.2 grade for the season. He also been a capable starter at times for our IDP rosters. This week against Chicago is shaping up to be another one of those weeks. In every game with at least 8 pass-rush snaps, Rousseau has posted a minimum of 3 pressures (per PFF). He has converted that into 8 sacks for a very respectable season so far. Enter the Bears who have an offensive line that is tied for 8th worst in pressures allowed (26%) and tied for 4th worst in sack conversion allowed (19%). This paired with Justin Fields tendency to hold on to the ball for a long time, he has the longest time to throw of any QB this season who has taken at least 100 drop backs, will allow for an athletic Edge player like Rousseau to find his way home for a big play. Rousseau is a strong DL2 play this week, with DL1 upside.

START: Jaelan Phillips, Miami Dolphins, DL47

Jaelan Phillips may sound familiar to you if you read this article every week. I liked him a few weeks ago, and I liked what he had for his playoff run as well. He had a strong game against the Bills this last week and I believe in him moving forward. Rousseau had a wonderful PFF pass-rush grade, but Phillips is just phenomenal. He has a season grade of 89.2! And his last 5 games highlight this especially. Over that stretch he is averaging 4.6 pressures, 1.0 sack, 1.2 QB hits, and 2.4 hurries per game. He clearly has the tools and the talent, welcome in the Packers for week 16. Now Green Bay boasts one of the better pressures allowed rate, tied for 4th best (22%), however, when they do allow pressures, they are more likely to turn into sacks, tied for 12th worst (17%). In a matchup that both teams need the win, I expect big plays and the effort to match from both sides and I see Phillips as high-end DL2 this week.

SIT: J.J. Watt, Arizona Cardinals, DL29

J.J. Watt looked like vintage Watt in week 15, with 3 sacks! While we love the positive news for a former FFIDP legend (2013-2015 Watt was insane!), but I do not like what week 16 could bring for Watt and his FFIDP output. A matchup of two savvy vets trying to make the most out of their season in Watt versus Tampa Bay and Tom Brady. Tampa Bay and all the complaints about their offensive line, Brady has found a way to operate within it and try to make it work. And that way is with very quick passes as Brady has the second fastest time to throw out of all QBs that have taken at least 100 drop backs (2.33 seconds). Brady will probably see some pressure, but I would expect very limited pass-rush production for Watt this week. Tampa is middle of the back at 15th best pressure rate (23%) but are tied for 5th best for sack conversion rate (10%). J.J. is someone I would consider in the DL4 range, which would make in unplayable in most formats.

START: Joe Thomas, Chicago Bears, LB67

First of all, a huge shoutout to Jack Sanborn and the fun and amazing performances he gave to FFIDP and the Chicago Bears after the Roquan Smith trade. However, his season is officially over after being placed on injured reserve. With his injury, welcome in Joe Thomas. In his replacement of Sanborn, Joe Thomas gave produced 6 combined tackles, sack, TFL, QB hit and all in 43 snaps. I am not saying he will produce big-play upside this week, but at LB67, his tackle efficiency and production has strong potential as he looks like a full-time role replacement for Chicago, which has been very productive for the non-Mike LB role this year. Joe Thomas is a low-end LB3 this week.

START: Deion Jones, Cleveland Browns, LB40

Cleveland’s LB room has been an ambiguous mess for FFIDP for good portions of the year… and we once again, have some semblance of clarity. It only took injuries to almost every other LB first (Anthony Walker, Sione Takitaki, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Jacob Phillips to name a few). But now, we have Deion Jones, the man standing above the rubble. This really is a matter of volume for Jones at this point and he appears to have it all. 88% in week 14 but now last week, he was the only LB to see over 30 total snaps (out of their 63 total). That type of solitary volume is hard to find and makes him a strong LB3 this week in their matchup against the Saints.

SIT (fade): Jamin Davis, Washington Commanders, LB32

Jamin Davis has done a solid job taking on the lead role since Cole Holcomb’s injury for the Commanders in week 7. And in the last 3 weeks he has looked like a better FFIDP lineup option as well racking up an average of 9.7 combined tackles in that span. However, at this point in the season, we do have the luxury of understanding what a matchup can mean to a positional group and as such, the San Francisco 49ers, are one of the worst matchups for a LB. If you want to take a look at some of the data, I strongly recommend checking out @moncal on Twitter. He does a wonderful job capturing this information and sharing it out there. For this week, the 49ers offer the worst expected LB performances over season average. This makes Davis a strong fade for me and I would consider starting him if you truly have “no other options” in that LB3/4 range.

START: Tariq Woolen, Seattle Seahawks, DB34

Tariq Woolen has been an amazing story this year for what was supposed to be a rebuilding Seattle Seahawks. They yet again, find a 5th round corner, to come into the league and deliver from year 1. Now, what he can do for his career, we have to wait and see. But for week 16, against the Kansas City Chiefs, this is a good FFIDP matchup. The Chiefs are the 3rd highest passing team with 551 pass attempts, they have a QB in Mahomes that loves to make difficult throws, that lead to turnover worthy plays, which he has 15 of on the year (tied for 13th worst) and this has resulted in 11 interceptions (tied for 3rd worst). Woolen has already shown a penchant for play-making with his 6 INTs and 6 PDs. Woolen is high-end DB3 for me with DB2 upside.

START: Jason Pinnock, New York Giants, DB48

Jason Pinnock has stepped with the injury to Xavier McKinney and coach Daboll has already confirmed that McKinney will not be back this week and is out against the Vikings. This gives him the full-time, albeit as the deep safety primarily for the Giants. However, the Vikings are one of the more pass-happy teams in the NFL and aren’t shy about it. Cousins is 4th on total pass attempts at 544 and I would expect more of the same this week. What is more important, is that Cousins leads the NFL in attempts (127) in the intermediate area of the field (10-19 yards downfield) which is a wonderful area to get that deep safety involved! Pinnock is a low-ceiling play this week, but has a strong floor for a full-time safety and should be closer to a high-end DB4 with DB3 upside.

SIT (fade): Donovan Wilson, Dallas Cowboys, DB10

Dallas has had a three-headed approach to safety most of this year with Donovan Wilson, Jayron Kearse, and Malik Hooker. This has led to some up and down usage at times, but when all are healthy, Wilson is generally seeing the lower snaps of the three. Along that note, Kearse and Wilson are generally taking on the “box” role but Kearse is doing it with greater frequency as well as more snaps in the slot too. With a very important game against division rival, the Eagles, you would expect a big performance from the defense. But I have reservations about Donovan Wilson as a DB1. It would take a setback for Jayron Kearse to not play to have this level of confidence. But Kearse did a routine of Limited Practice, Limited, Full Participant and played a full complement of snaps last week and is trending exactly the same this week. I have Wilson close to a DB3 this week.

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By Jake

Updated: December 15th 2022

Its playoff time!! I am hoping you are all checking out the article in hopes to get any possible edge for your fantasy playoffs matchup. If not, I hope you are just trying to stay plugged in, in an effort to keep perfecting your craft and plot for that FFIDP title next season!
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show are the ECR from Fantasy Pros each week.

WEEK 14 RECAP
DL:
Start: Haason Reddick (Sack, solo, assist, TFL, QB hit. Not a ton, but delivered a sack for a solid week)
Start: Josh Allen (Sack, 3 solos, TFL, 2 QB hits, FR. A strong week for sure!)

Sit: Jerry Hughes (QB Hit. Old man strength may be running out?)

LB:

Start: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (3 solos, 3 assists. Got injured during the game, did not deliver enough of a floor here that we would have wanted)

Start: Jaylon Smith (7 solos, 2 assists. Great tackle floor performance)

Sit: David Long Jr. DNP (He ended up not playing)

DB:
Start: Rayshawn Jenkins (4 solos, 2 assists. This and Sauce are borderline good plays. I’ll take them as wins for this week)

Start: Sauce Gardner (4 solos, PD)

Sit: Talanoa Hufanga (3 solos, assist. Hufanga has been sliding in IDP production for the back half and is someone to keep a very keen eye on)

START: Azeez Ojulari, New York Giants, DL37

Azeez has struggled with injuries all season. But he has two weeks in a row now with solid snap counts and he is showing some of that 2021 flash again! He has 10 pressures and 3 sacks over these last two weeks and 41+ snaps in both games. He has struggled a bit in run defense and has limited tackle floor, but his pass-rush upside is very real. He has a strong matchup against the Washington Commanders this week who have the 5th highest pressure rate allowed this year and 13th highest sack conversion rate. And we don’t need to look any further than week 13 when Azeez last played Washington (his first game back from injury) and he delivered 7 pressures (21.9% pass-rush pressure rate), a sack, and 2 QB hits! It is safe to expect more of the same. Azeez is a strong DL2 play this week.

START: Kwity Paye, Indianapolis Colts, DL68

Kwity Paye is another top talent from 2021’s draft class that has struggled with injury this season. He is also someone who has shown reasons why we really like his upside. He has shown the ability to deliver a successful IDP week just in run defense with 3 of his 7 (full) games with 5+ tackles, while 2, 3, and 1 were his other tackle counts. A solid floor paired with an ideal matchup against the Minnesota Vikings this weekend make Paye worth way more than his DL68 ranking. The Vikings are allowing a league worst pressure rate and are tied for the 9th highest sack conversion rate this season. Paye is another strong DL2 play this week.

SIT: Jeffery Simmons, Tennessee Titans, DL23

Jefferey Simmons is arguably one of the best DT’s in the league and for IDP, “so how can you sit him?”. This boils down to his ankle injury that held him out of week 10 and the injuries to other pass-rushers. These things have truly limited Simmons upside the last 4 weeks. We have seen his pass-rush grade drop, his 4 lowest pass-rush grades in a game have all come over the last 4 weeks and his 3 of his worst pressure performances as well. Now, they are supposed to get Denico Autry back this week which should help a bit, but the matchup against the LA Chargers is not ideal either. They are tied for 10th lowest pressure rate and tied for the 2nd best sack conversion rate allowed. I can see Simmons still being a needed play in DT-required leagues, but I would lower expectations and in straight DL terms, he would be a low-end DL3 for me this week.

START: Jack Sanborn, Chicago Bears, LB35

Jack Sanborn is one of those darling waiver wire adds for IDP teams late in the season and as such, he feels like a high-end LB2 every week at this point. He has delivered a MINIMUM of 7 solo tackles every week, since week 9 when he stepped in for Roquan Smith. He has 3 of those 5 games with at least one play behind the line of scrimmage too. And the sprinkles on top of this Sanborn sundae? He is at a full 100% snaps the last two weeks as well. They are not taking him off the field and you should not be taking him out of your lineup. He is a high-end LB2.

START: Zaire Franklin, Indianapolis Colts, LB36

Zaire Franklin was a fun story to start the year with the injuries and uncertainties with the his LB running mates, Shaq Leonard and Bobbye Okereke. But he has played 100% of the snaps in all but 1 game (96% in week 10), had 8+ combined tackles in all but 2 games (weeks 7 and 9), and had a play behind the line of scrimmage in 8 of the 13 games this year. You may not be sold on Zaire for 2023 and the Colts (I personally am) but you cannot tell me you haven’t seen enough from Zaire this year to consider him in your top 24 LBs. He should be a strong LB2 this week.

SIT: Devin Lloyd, Jacksonville Jaguars, LB29

Devin Lloyd was the second LB drafted in the 2022 draft class and a first round pick and as such, came in with a lot of hype. He showed early flashes of production, for both NFL and IDP, and got everyone excited about what he could be. However, down the stretch he began to fade and Chad Muma took advantage of this opportunity and balled out. Muma was out last week and Lloyd was put back into the a 3-down role alongside Foyesade but Muma with a limited practice on Wednesday and an ankle injury like his tends to see 1-2 weeks and then return to play. I would be worried about Lloyd’s ability to pull a heavy snap count and would not have a high-level of confidence for him as an LB3. He would be a low-end LB4 at this point.

START: Andrew Adams, Tennessee Titans, DB138

This is a REAL deep shot with Andrew Adams, but this is the time of the year you may need that type of hail mary for your matchup, so let’s dig in. Adams has been relatively average in his tackle efficiency for a safety at 9%, only 1 INT, no fumbles forced or recovered, and his snap count is a little below ideal at 81% on the season. So why Adams this week? He has been very efficient in gathering up all his tackles in coverage this year with 75% of his tackles coming not in run support and the second most pass-happy team in the league, LA Chargers, are set to provide him all those chances. He has shown us the ability to pile up tackles with 10 total tackle games this year with one last week against Jacksonville. Adams is a low-end DB3 this week.

START: Marcus Jones, New England Patriots, DB70

Marcus Jones may have snuck onto people’s radars in week 11 with his game-winning punt return for a TD against the New York Jets in their 10-3 win. If not then, then week 13 he got on the offensive side of the ball and took a a screen pass 40+ yards to the house for a receiving TD. And now this last week he stepped up with an injury to the current outside CB, Jack Jones, while playing the Cardinals and delivered with 7 solos, an assisted tackle, an INT, and two PDs. Assuming your league accounts for all of these types of scoring for all positions, Marcus is a beautiful amalgamation of fantasy football production. The real question is though, will he be the starting outside corner this week? With Jack Jones a DNP on Wednesday and how quickly he was ruled out of the game on Monday night and it being a shorter week then, I’d say Marcus is in line for another start and a chance to roll up a very full box score. Marcus is a strong DB3 and a high-end CB2 in cornerback required leagues.

SIT: Jalen Thompson, Arizona Cardinals, DB21

Jalen Thompson burst onto the IDP scene last year with 120+ combined tackles. This year he is on pace to just hit 90 over a 17 game pace. Jalen went from 49.4% of his snaps in the sweet spot over all of 2021 to 43% of his time in the same spot. Not a major drop off, but enough to cause some inconsistencies in his tackle production and now this week he gets the Denver Broncos who will most likely have Brett Rypien and an offense that has spent most of the season struggling with Wilson will most likely have an even tougher time with Rypien under center. Fewer and shorter drives for the Broncos will cause an overall reduction for Thompson this week too. Thompson would be a low-end DB3 for me at this time.

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