IDP Start/Sit: Week 17

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By Jake

Updated: December 28th 2022

This is it. The final week of most fantasy seasons. This was my worst week of the year and I hope it didn’t cost any of you readers your matchups. My apologies and it motivates me to get you those right plays for your matchups. Let’s lock down those lineups and support one last victory!
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show are the ECR from Fantasy Pros each week.

WEEK 16 RECAP
DL:
Start: Greg Rousseau (1 solo, TFL)
Start: Jaelan Phillips (5 solos, 1 assist. A decent enough performance to support a DL spot)

Sit: J.J. Watt (5 solos, 2 assist, 2 TFLs, 2 QB hits. He looked like vintage JJ out there and played 95% of snaps!!!)

LB:

Start: Joe Thomas (6 solos, 1 assist. Not awful, but not good enough for a playoff LB spot)

Start: Deion Jones (2 solos, 1 assist, 39% of snaps. I am done with Cleveland and their LB room)

Sit: Jamin Davis (6 solos, 2 assist, TFL. He did his job for the week)

DB:
Start: Tariq Woolen (1 solo, 1 assist, 1 PD. Not enough in a big week)

Start: Jason Pinnock (2 solos, 1 assist, QB hit. 100% of the snaps, just limited production)

Sit: Donovan Wilson (6 solos, 1 assist, TFL. I don’t know that he was a top 10 this week, but he did enough to be a strong play)

START: Demarcus Lawrence, Dallas Cowboys, DL27

Demarcus Lawrence hasn’t posted a sack in the last 5 weeks. He has however, generated 20 pressures, for a respectable 13.9% pass-rush pressure rate. That recent success, coupled with a matchup against the Titans who have a league worst pressure rate allowed at 34% and are tied for 9th worst in sack conversion rate at 17% sets up for a strong matchup. Throw in the fact that Malik Willis is starting and has looked like a fish out of water trying to throw the ball, on 28 drop backs his time to throw was 3.56 seconds, which is a benefit for any pass rusher to have a QB who holds on to the ball longer. And no Derrick Henry (had an injury designation, short week, and this game has zero impact on their playoff status), the Titans will be in a rough spot this week and Lawrence is a high-end DL2 this week with big sack upside.

START: Preston Smith, Green Bay Packers, DL41

Preston Smith hasn’t produced a high-end amount of pressures with 11 pressures over his last 5 games. But he still produced a modest 9.7% pass-rush pressure rate on limited opportunities. But he has been effective with those opportunities converted it into 6 sacks. And with Minnesota the matchup this week, it is an ideal matchup to get pressures and convert them. The Vikings are tied for second worst in pressures allowed rate at 30% and tied for 6th for sack conversion rate at 18%. In a must-win game for the Packers, Smith is setup to be able to deliver a strong IDP championship performance. Preston Smith is a low-end DL2 this week.

SIT: Chandler Jones, Las Vegas Raiders, DL18

Chandler Jones has had a bit of an up and down year with the bulk of his production coming in weeks 12 – 14. The recent production has been nice for IDP players who were able to make the play on him, however, his elbow injury will most likely sideline him or at the very least, limit his overall production. And San Francisco is a tough matchup regardless. I wouldn’t personally have the stones to roll Chandler out and I would try to pivot to another option entirely this week.

START: Quay Walker, Green Bay Packers, LB33

Quay Walker had lofty expectations coming into this year with his draft capital and Green Bay kept good on their word of getting to a point of having 2 LBs on the field as much as possible (limiting substitutions and sub-packages). Since Campbell came back to the lineup full time in week 13, Quay has seen snap counts of 100%, 96%, and 96%. And on the season he has a delivered a good 13.2% tackle efficiency, which is a great first year. Now with the consistent top-end usage (nearly 100% as a 2nd LB), and consistent production, Quay should in consideration for a top 30 LB most weeks. This week against a strong offense in Minnesota in which there should be increased opportunities, he should be a low-end LB2.

START: Nicholas Morrow, Chicago Bears, LB37

Nicholas Morrow was the green dot wearer for the Bears all season and even with that consistent high-end snap count, he was not able to move past Roquan Smith and Jack Sanborn in terms of IDP relevance. With Smith gone via trade and Sanborn done due to injury, Morrow has seemingly stepped up and been delivering better IDP production over the last 2 weeks. In a must-win matchup for the Lions, I think we see plenty of opportunities for the Bears defense to make plays. Morrow is a low-end LB2 this week.

SIT: Bobby Okereke, Indianapolis Colts, LB29

The Colts LB room has some question marks moving forward beyond 2022, and as such, Okereke has seen at times his snap count drop a bit lower, into the 70% range at times. He has still found a way to be efficient with reduced snaps, but with a season that feels like they are giving up, it is a strong chance players who aren’t under contract for 2023, like Bobby O, might see some snaps taken away in favor for others. This is purely speculative as we have no coaching history to reference for Jeff Saturday, but the fact they are keeping Nick Foles in, tells me what I need to know. I would fade Bobby and treat him as a fringe LB3.

START: Ifeatu Melifonwu, Detroit Lions, DB132

Ifeatu Melifonwu stepped in for the injured DeShon Elliott last week and contributed 8 combined tackles and a TFL. A very usable game for IDP. He spent the 66% of his time in the sweet spot and would assume he will again against another team willing to run the ball in the Chicago Bears. And with DeShon Elliott logging a DNP (did not participate) for the Wednesday practice, it is looking like Melifonwu should get the start again and be in the DB3 range.

START: Nasir Adderley, Los Angeles Chargers, DB65

Nasir Adderley has been the other starting safety alongside Derwin James most of this season. Derwin has been the one in more of that sweet spot role or even more of a play-making position closer to the line of scrimmage. With Derwin suffering a concussion on that brutal hit to Ashton Dulin in Monday night’s game, I would be looking for other options to start instead of James. In comes Adderley. He has played more of the box snaps as the other safety and would be the most likely candidate to try and step in for James, as much as possible. Adderley has had modest IDP numbers for most of the season, but can be a fringe DB3 in a pinch for those missing James or those just needing help at the DB spot.

SIT: Darrick Forrest, Washington Commanders, DB28

Darrick Forrest has been a pleasant revelation for Washington with Kamren Curl’s injuries this off season and he has shown some great IDP value as well. However, his matchup this week against the Cleveland Browns is less than ideal as they have struggled to sustain drives since Deshaun Watson’s return as he tries to find his form and their willingness to attack downfield is not a major part of their gameplan to date. Forrest being a primarily deep safety as Jeremy Reaves stepped into the box role with Curl’s absence, leaves a bit to be desired for Forrest this week. I would lower expectations for Forrest for a fringe DB3 at best.

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 16

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By Jake

Updated: December 22nd 2022

I hope just like this article, you and your fantasy team are moving on to week 16! But if not, you can come read and learn a bit about end of year and get a head start on players and things to watch for moving forward too! Regardless, I hope you and yours have a healthy and happy holidays!! Now let’s play some IDP fantasy football.
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show are the ECR from Fantasy Pros each week.

WEEK 15 RECAP
DL:
Start: Azeez Ojulari (0.5 sack, 2 solos, 2 assists, 2 QB hits. A solid game, easily overshadowed by Kayvon’s huge game)
Start: Kwity Paye (Sack, 5 solos, 2 TFLs, 2 QB hits. Paye flashing a strong game.)

Sit: Jeffery Simmons (Sack, 4 solos, 2 assists, TFL, QB hit. Simmons’ ankle seemed fine and he delivered in a big way)

LB:

Start: Jack Sanborn (5 solos. He didn’t goose you, but could’ve been so much more if he didn’t get hurt early in the 3rd quarter)

Start: Zaire Franklin (6 solos, 4 assist, FF. Another strong game)

Sit: Devin Lloyd (7 solos, 2 assists. Lloyd looking the rookie LB for the rest of this season, at least)

DB:
Start: Andrew Adams (4 solos, 2 assists. For where he was ranked and probably available, not a terrible performance)

Start: Marcus Jones (4 solos, assist, PD, 25 return yards. He took 2 offensive snaps, no stats. Saw 100% of the IDP snaps though)

Sit: Jalen Thompson (3 solos, 6 assists. Strong delivery in the tackle game, a lot of assisted tackles though.)

START: Greg Rousseau, Buffalo Bills, DL27

Greg Rousseau has done a wonderful job as a pass-rusher this season and his PFF grade shows this with a very good 81.2 grade for the season. He also been a capable starter at times for our IDP rosters. This week against Chicago is shaping up to be another one of those weeks. In every game with at least 8 pass-rush snaps, Rousseau has posted a minimum of 3 pressures (per PFF). He has converted that into 8 sacks for a very respectable season so far. Enter the Bears who have an offensive line that is tied for 8th worst in pressures allowed (26%) and tied for 4th worst in sack conversion allowed (19%). This paired with Justin Fields tendency to hold on to the ball for a long time, he has the longest time to throw of any QB this season who has taken at least 100 drop backs, will allow for an athletic Edge player like Rousseau to find his way home for a big play. Rousseau is a strong DL2 play this week, with DL1 upside.

START: Jaelan Phillips, Miami Dolphins, DL47

Jaelan Phillips may sound familiar to you if you read this article every week. I liked him a few weeks ago, and I liked what he had for his playoff run as well. He had a strong game against the Bills this last week and I believe in him moving forward. Rousseau had a wonderful PFF pass-rush grade, but Phillips is just phenomenal. He has a season grade of 89.2! And his last 5 games highlight this especially. Over that stretch he is averaging 4.6 pressures, 1.0 sack, 1.2 QB hits, and 2.4 hurries per game. He clearly has the tools and the talent, welcome in the Packers for week 16. Now Green Bay boasts one of the better pressures allowed rate, tied for 4th best (22%), however, when they do allow pressures, they are more likely to turn into sacks, tied for 12th worst (17%). In a matchup that both teams need the win, I expect big plays and the effort to match from both sides and I see Phillips as high-end DL2 this week.

SIT: J.J. Watt, Arizona Cardinals, DL29

J.J. Watt looked like vintage Watt in week 15, with 3 sacks! While we love the positive news for a former FFIDP legend (2013-2015 Watt was insane!), but I do not like what week 16 could bring for Watt and his FFIDP output. A matchup of two savvy vets trying to make the most out of their season in Watt versus Tampa Bay and Tom Brady. Tampa Bay and all the complaints about their offensive line, Brady has found a way to operate within it and try to make it work. And that way is with very quick passes as Brady has the second fastest time to throw out of all QBs that have taken at least 100 drop backs (2.33 seconds). Brady will probably see some pressure, but I would expect very limited pass-rush production for Watt this week. Tampa is middle of the back at 15th best pressure rate (23%) but are tied for 5th best for sack conversion rate (10%). J.J. is someone I would consider in the DL4 range, which would make in unplayable in most formats.

START: Joe Thomas, Chicago Bears, LB67

First of all, a huge shoutout to Jack Sanborn and the fun and amazing performances he gave to FFIDP and the Chicago Bears after the Roquan Smith trade. However, his season is officially over after being placed on injured reserve. With his injury, welcome in Joe Thomas. In his replacement of Sanborn, Joe Thomas gave produced 6 combined tackles, sack, TFL, QB hit and all in 43 snaps. I am not saying he will produce big-play upside this week, but at LB67, his tackle efficiency and production has strong potential as he looks like a full-time role replacement for Chicago, which has been very productive for the non-Mike LB role this year. Joe Thomas is a low-end LB3 this week.

START: Deion Jones, Cleveland Browns, LB40

Cleveland’s LB room has been an ambiguous mess for FFIDP for good portions of the year… and we once again, have some semblance of clarity. It only took injuries to almost every other LB first (Anthony Walker, Sione Takitaki, Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Jacob Phillips to name a few). But now, we have Deion Jones, the man standing above the rubble. This really is a matter of volume for Jones at this point and he appears to have it all. 88% in week 14 but now last week, he was the only LB to see over 30 total snaps (out of their 63 total). That type of solitary volume is hard to find and makes him a strong LB3 this week in their matchup against the Saints.

SIT (fade): Jamin Davis, Washington Commanders, LB32

Jamin Davis has done a solid job taking on the lead role since Cole Holcomb’s injury for the Commanders in week 7. And in the last 3 weeks he has looked like a better FFIDP lineup option as well racking up an average of 9.7 combined tackles in that span. However, at this point in the season, we do have the luxury of understanding what a matchup can mean to a positional group and as such, the San Francisco 49ers, are one of the worst matchups for a LB. If you want to take a look at some of the data, I strongly recommend checking out @moncal on Twitter. He does a wonderful job capturing this information and sharing it out there. For this week, the 49ers offer the worst expected LB performances over season average. This makes Davis a strong fade for me and I would consider starting him if you truly have “no other options” in that LB3/4 range.

START: Tariq Woolen, Seattle Seahawks, DB34

Tariq Woolen has been an amazing story this year for what was supposed to be a rebuilding Seattle Seahawks. They yet again, find a 5th round corner, to come into the league and deliver from year 1. Now, what he can do for his career, we have to wait and see. But for week 16, against the Kansas City Chiefs, this is a good FFIDP matchup. The Chiefs are the 3rd highest passing team with 551 pass attempts, they have a QB in Mahomes that loves to make difficult throws, that lead to turnover worthy plays, which he has 15 of on the year (tied for 13th worst) and this has resulted in 11 interceptions (tied for 3rd worst). Woolen has already shown a penchant for play-making with his 6 INTs and 6 PDs. Woolen is high-end DB3 for me with DB2 upside.

START: Jason Pinnock, New York Giants, DB48

Jason Pinnock has stepped with the injury to Xavier McKinney and coach Daboll has already confirmed that McKinney will not be back this week and is out against the Vikings. This gives him the full-time, albeit as the deep safety primarily for the Giants. However, the Vikings are one of the more pass-happy teams in the NFL and aren’t shy about it. Cousins is 4th on total pass attempts at 544 and I would expect more of the same this week. What is more important, is that Cousins leads the NFL in attempts (127) in the intermediate area of the field (10-19 yards downfield) which is a wonderful area to get that deep safety involved! Pinnock is a low-ceiling play this week, but has a strong floor for a full-time safety and should be closer to a high-end DB4 with DB3 upside.

SIT (fade): Donovan Wilson, Dallas Cowboys, DB10

Dallas has had a three-headed approach to safety most of this year with Donovan Wilson, Jayron Kearse, and Malik Hooker. This has led to some up and down usage at times, but when all are healthy, Wilson is generally seeing the lower snaps of the three. Along that note, Kearse and Wilson are generally taking on the “box” role but Kearse is doing it with greater frequency as well as more snaps in the slot too. With a very important game against division rival, the Eagles, you would expect a big performance from the defense. But I have reservations about Donovan Wilson as a DB1. It would take a setback for Jayron Kearse to not play to have this level of confidence. But Kearse did a routine of Limited Practice, Limited, Full Participant and played a full complement of snaps last week and is trending exactly the same this week. I have Wilson close to a DB3 this week.

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 15

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By Jake

Updated: December 15th 2022

Its playoff time!! I am hoping you are all checking out the article in hopes to get any possible edge for your fantasy playoffs matchup. If not, I hope you are just trying to stay plugged in, in an effort to keep perfecting your craft and plot for that FFIDP title next season!
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show are the ECR from Fantasy Pros each week.

WEEK 14 RECAP
DL:
Start: Haason Reddick (Sack, solo, assist, TFL, QB hit. Not a ton, but delivered a sack for a solid week)
Start: Josh Allen (Sack, 3 solos, TFL, 2 QB hits, FR. A strong week for sure!)

Sit: Jerry Hughes (QB Hit. Old man strength may be running out?)

LB:

Start: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (3 solos, 3 assists. Got injured during the game, did not deliver enough of a floor here that we would have wanted)

Start: Jaylon Smith (7 solos, 2 assists. Great tackle floor performance)

Sit: David Long Jr. DNP (He ended up not playing)

DB:
Start: Rayshawn Jenkins (4 solos, 2 assists. This and Sauce are borderline good plays. I’ll take them as wins for this week)

Start: Sauce Gardner (4 solos, PD)

Sit: Talanoa Hufanga (3 solos, assist. Hufanga has been sliding in IDP production for the back half and is someone to keep a very keen eye on)

START: Azeez Ojulari, New York Giants, DL37

Azeez has struggled with injuries all season. But he has two weeks in a row now with solid snap counts and he is showing some of that 2021 flash again! He has 10 pressures and 3 sacks over these last two weeks and 41+ snaps in both games. He has struggled a bit in run defense and has limited tackle floor, but his pass-rush upside is very real. He has a strong matchup against the Washington Commanders this week who have the 5th highest pressure rate allowed this year and 13th highest sack conversion rate. And we don’t need to look any further than week 13 when Azeez last played Washington (his first game back from injury) and he delivered 7 pressures (21.9% pass-rush pressure rate), a sack, and 2 QB hits! It is safe to expect more of the same. Azeez is a strong DL2 play this week.

START: Kwity Paye, Indianapolis Colts, DL68

Kwity Paye is another top talent from 2021’s draft class that has struggled with injury this season. He is also someone who has shown reasons why we really like his upside. He has shown the ability to deliver a successful IDP week just in run defense with 3 of his 7 (full) games with 5+ tackles, while 2, 3, and 1 were his other tackle counts. A solid floor paired with an ideal matchup against the Minnesota Vikings this weekend make Paye worth way more than his DL68 ranking. The Vikings are allowing a league worst pressure rate and are tied for the 9th highest sack conversion rate this season. Paye is another strong DL2 play this week.

SIT: Jeffery Simmons, Tennessee Titans, DL23

Jefferey Simmons is arguably one of the best DT’s in the league and for IDP, “so how can you sit him?”. This boils down to his ankle injury that held him out of week 10 and the injuries to other pass-rushers. These things have truly limited Simmons upside the last 4 weeks. We have seen his pass-rush grade drop, his 4 lowest pass-rush grades in a game have all come over the last 4 weeks and his 3 of his worst pressure performances as well. Now, they are supposed to get Denico Autry back this week which should help a bit, but the matchup against the LA Chargers is not ideal either. They are tied for 10th lowest pressure rate and tied for the 2nd best sack conversion rate allowed. I can see Simmons still being a needed play in DT-required leagues, but I would lower expectations and in straight DL terms, he would be a low-end DL3 for me this week.

START: Jack Sanborn, Chicago Bears, LB35

Jack Sanborn is one of those darling waiver wire adds for IDP teams late in the season and as such, he feels like a high-end LB2 every week at this point. He has delivered a MINIMUM of 7 solo tackles every week, since week 9 when he stepped in for Roquan Smith. He has 3 of those 5 games with at least one play behind the line of scrimmage too. And the sprinkles on top of this Sanborn sundae? He is at a full 100% snaps the last two weeks as well. They are not taking him off the field and you should not be taking him out of your lineup. He is a high-end LB2.

START: Zaire Franklin, Indianapolis Colts, LB36

Zaire Franklin was a fun story to start the year with the injuries and uncertainties with the his LB running mates, Shaq Leonard and Bobbye Okereke. But he has played 100% of the snaps in all but 1 game (96% in week 10), had 8+ combined tackles in all but 2 games (weeks 7 and 9), and had a play behind the line of scrimmage in 8 of the 13 games this year. You may not be sold on Zaire for 2023 and the Colts (I personally am) but you cannot tell me you haven’t seen enough from Zaire this year to consider him in your top 24 LBs. He should be a strong LB2 this week.

SIT: Devin Lloyd, Jacksonville Jaguars, LB29

Devin Lloyd was the second LB drafted in the 2022 draft class and a first round pick and as such, came in with a lot of hype. He showed early flashes of production, for both NFL and IDP, and got everyone excited about what he could be. However, down the stretch he began to fade and Chad Muma took advantage of this opportunity and balled out. Muma was out last week and Lloyd was put back into the a 3-down role alongside Foyesade but Muma with a limited practice on Wednesday and an ankle injury like his tends to see 1-2 weeks and then return to play. I would be worried about Lloyd’s ability to pull a heavy snap count and would not have a high-level of confidence for him as an LB3. He would be a low-end LB4 at this point.

START: Andrew Adams, Tennessee Titans, DB138

This is a REAL deep shot with Andrew Adams, but this is the time of the year you may need that type of hail mary for your matchup, so let’s dig in. Adams has been relatively average in his tackle efficiency for a safety at 9%, only 1 INT, no fumbles forced or recovered, and his snap count is a little below ideal at 81% on the season. So why Adams this week? He has been very efficient in gathering up all his tackles in coverage this year with 75% of his tackles coming not in run support and the second most pass-happy team in the league, LA Chargers, are set to provide him all those chances. He has shown us the ability to pile up tackles with 10 total tackle games this year with one last week against Jacksonville. Adams is a low-end DB3 this week.

START: Marcus Jones, New England Patriots, DB70

Marcus Jones may have snuck onto people’s radars in week 11 with his game-winning punt return for a TD against the New York Jets in their 10-3 win. If not then, then week 13 he got on the offensive side of the ball and took a a screen pass 40+ yards to the house for a receiving TD. And now this last week he stepped up with an injury to the current outside CB, Jack Jones, while playing the Cardinals and delivered with 7 solos, an assisted tackle, an INT, and two PDs. Assuming your league accounts for all of these types of scoring for all positions, Marcus is a beautiful amalgamation of fantasy football production. The real question is though, will he be the starting outside corner this week? With Jack Jones a DNP on Wednesday and how quickly he was ruled out of the game on Monday night and it being a shorter week then, I’d say Marcus is in line for another start and a chance to roll up a very full box score. Marcus is a strong DB3 and a high-end CB2 in cornerback required leagues.

SIT: Jalen Thompson, Arizona Cardinals, DB21

Jalen Thompson burst onto the IDP scene last year with 120+ combined tackles. This year he is on pace to just hit 90 over a 17 game pace. Jalen went from 49.4% of his snaps in the sweet spot over all of 2021 to 43% of his time in the same spot. Not a major drop off, but enough to cause some inconsistencies in his tackle production and now this week he gets the Denver Broncos who will most likely have Brett Rypien and an offense that has spent most of the season struggling with Wilson will most likely have an even tougher time with Rypien under center. Fewer and shorter drives for the Broncos will cause an overall reduction for Thompson this week too. Thompson would be a low-end DB3 for me at this time.

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 14

Reply

By Jake

Updated: December 8th 2022

Here we are. Week 14. The final week of the fantasy regular season (in most leagues). Hopefully the journey up to this point with me has been a helpful and informative one, but we are not done yet! Let’s get these teams into the playoffs and bring home some of those sweet, sweet IDP fantasy football league championships!!
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show for them are what is the ECR over from Fantasy Pros for this week.

WEEK 13 RECAP
DL:
Start: Uchenna Nwosu (2 sacks! 4 solos, TFL, 3 QB hits, FF. What a performance!!)
Start: Leonard Floyd (1 assist, 1 QB hit. What a whiff, but he played 94% snaps, process felt good, just didn’t come show in the stat sheet for IDP.)

Sit: Matthew Judon (2 solos, 1 assist, 1 QB hit, FR. The fumble recovery kind of saved his week and those are very fluky stats to count on.)

LB:

Start: Chad Muma (1.5 sacks, 7 solos, 4 assist, 2 TFLs, 2 QB hits. An amazing week for the rookie, but he did depart with an ankle injury. Pay attention to that moving forward)

Start: Christian Harris (2 solos, 4 assist, PD. Played 100% snaps coming back from his injury, could for long-term, not great this week though.)

Sit: Lavonte David (1 sack, 10 solos, 2 assists, 2 TFLs, 1 QB hit. This is apparently what happens when you suggest to sit an IDP legend!)

DB:
Start: Rodney McLeod (5 solos, 1 assist, TFL, PD. A very consistent production from McLeod, just like we thought.)

Start: DeAndre Houston-Carson (3 solos, 2 assists, TFL. Not terrible, but would have liked to see a little bit more to call this a “win” this week.)

Sit: John Johnson III (1 assist, INT, PD. Week was saved by the interception, which was a wonky one if you watch the replay, but he made it nonetheless.)

START: Haason Reddick, Philadelphia Eagles, DL30

Haason in his first year with Philadelphia answered some of the questions about whether he was purely a volume play, or he could produce numbers with other talented DL plays around him. Questions answered and he has delivered on most fronts this season. Reddick has played 70% of the total snaps so far this season which gives him the foundation for production. He has also delivered a strong 13.5% pass-rush pressure rate for the year. Now he has a great matchup this week against the New York Giants. They have allowed a 26% pressure rate on the season (7th worst this season), and an 18% sack conversion rate (4th worst this season). Reddick should be a high-end DL2 this week.

START: Josh Allen, Jacksonville Jaguars, DL36

Josh Allen is a big-name edge rusher who hasn’t quite filled up the stat sheet the way some had hoped he would, with only 3.0 sacks. But he has been delivering some foundational things we like to see. He is seeing 77% of the snaps for his defense which are very strong numbers for an edge rusher. He has 44 pressures total on the season for a respectable 12.8% pass-rush pressure rate. Next up for Josh Allen is the Titans and their offensive line. They have allowed a 30% pressure rate on the season (worst in the league) and a 16% sack conversion rate (8th worst in the league) and should help Josh Allen find a way back into strong IDP production. Allen his a good DL2 this week.

SIT: Jerry Hughes, Houston Texans, DL23

Jerry Hughes has been one of the great stories for IDP (and NFL) production this year. 8 sacks and but only 16 tackles, Hughes is much more of an boom/bust play this season and has been delivering on that upside quite a bit this year. In his lower snaps, 61%, his upside can be limited. Pairing that with his matchup against the Cowboys this week, he is less than ideal. They are allowing an average pressure rate of 25% (tied for 12 best in the league) but are only allowing a 6% sack conversion rate (best in the league). Hughes is a DL4 this week.

START: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah, Cleveland Browns, LB31

Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah has taken the clear lead of the Cleveland Browns LB room with snap percentages of 80%, 95%, 96%, and 78%. Last week’s dip might seem a little concerning, but with Sione Takitaki out for the season, JOK is winning this war of attrition right now. He has seen his average solo tackles jump up from 4 to 5 over this increased stretch and a 1/2 assisted tackle per game up as well. He has also racked up 3 TFLs, QB hit, 3 PDs and a FF over this 4-game stretch. JOK is taking advantage of his opportunity and delivering for IDP. Between the snaps being there, the play-making (that we were all hoping from him this year), and a matchup against Cincinnati whose offense has been very strong over the last 5 games, JOK feels like a strong LB2.

START: Jaylon Smith, New York Giants, LB58

Jaylon Smith has gone from a high-end round 2 pick for the Cowboys, to a big 2nd contract, to cut, to a 2nd chance with the New York Giants. He has made the most out of it this year taking clear control of the LB room and has delivered a nice floor for IDP in the last few weeks. He has played 71% of the snaps for the defense in his 9 games with the Giants and has seen great usage in his last three, 74%, 91%, and 87%. He is averaging just under 7 tackles per game over his last three as well. With Dallas as the matchup this week, Jaylon Smith should see strong usage in defense of the Cowboys’ run game and their 7th best, 68 plays per game over the last 3 weeks. Smith has strong upside as a low-end LB3 this week.

SIT (INJURY): David Long Jr., Tennessee Titans, LB19

David Long Jr. has been a consistent target for me this year to have on my IDP teams, so sitting him feels counterintuitive. However, this is specifically related to the hamstring injury he just suffered. Soft tissue injuries can linger and as such, the Titans could be very slow in bringing him back in hopes of making sure he is available for the NFL playoffs. Long was already a DNP (did not participate) for Wednesday’s practice which is a big negative for him suiting up this week. If you are in a tight spot, Dylan Cole looks like the next man up behind him as he took 77% of the snaps once Long went out. You should be planning for life without Long this week and possible at least next.

START: Rayshawn Jenkins, Jacksonville Jaguars, DB33

Rayshawn Jenkins has been a model of consistency this season for IDP. Since week 3 this year, he has never been under the 5 tackle mark, has produced 9 passes defensed (a more indicative stat then INTs), and has even added 2 FFs in the last 3 weeks. Looking just at his consistent numbers without any major statistical marker jumping off the screen, he would feel in the right spot as a DB3 this week. But his usage in heavy run-game script against Detroit (39 box snaps!!) makes me believe he will be there a bunch this week against the Derrick Henry-led Titans and their running attack. You should consider Jenkins more of a low-end DB2 this week as he is in a situation to rack up a nice tackle floor.

START: Sauce Gardner, New York Jets, DB37

Sauce Gardner has made a splash in his rookie season and really made a name for himself as a top name in the CB discussion in the NFL. This week, I think he will be producing for IDP purposes as well. This week he gets the Buffalo Bills and presumably Stefon Diggs. And we need to look no further than last week to see how the Bills are not afraid of attacking a team’s top corner. Jonathan Jones had 11 targets that he led to 9 receptions against him, but also 6 solos and 2 assists. For Sauce this should mean he has a strong floor based on tackle opportunities if he gets targeted with big-play upside for PDs and/or an INT. Sauce has also only missed 4 tackles all season (7.3%), so you can count on the opportunities he does get. Gardner is a high-end DB3 with strong DB2 upside!

SIT (FADE): Talanoa Hufanga, San Francisco 49ers, DB12

Talanoa Hufanga has been a great story this year the way he burst on to the scene early this year with some big tackles, big plays, and big hair! (How can you not love this guy’s lettuce?!?) So how can we “sit” this guy you say? If you feel you can’t bench him, perhaps the best we can do then, is at least lower expectations. Hufanga has seen his box/DL snap alignment slowly trend downwards a bit and play much more in the FS role. The 49ers don’t have a strong need for him up when Warner/Greenlaw are healthy and productive. Queue Tom Brady and the Buccaneers this week, Mr. Brady loves to utilize the quick passing game more than anybody in the league with one of the fastest times-to-throw (2nd lowest with at least 100 attempts, 2.29) and throwing more pass attempts within 9 yards of the line of scrimmage (252) than any other QB this feels like a game for Greenlaw and Warner to deliver while Hufanga will become more big-play dependent. I would consider Hufanga a low-end DB2 this week and plan your roster accordingly.

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By Jake

Updated: December 1st 2022

Another week in the books with 12 behind us and we are two short weeks away from most of the fantasy playoffs! Every matchup is amplified as we all make that final push to the playoffs and with that, each lineup decision makes even more critical. Let’s walk through 9 players and the process of figuring out who to fire up and who to get in some rest on our fantasy benches.
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show for them are what is the ECR over from Fantasy Pros for this week.

WEEK 12 RECAP
DL:
Start: Michael Danna (1 solo, 3 assists, 2 QB hits. Process felt sound, just didn’t convert the big play.)
Start: Lorenzo Carter (2 solos, 1 assist)

Sit: Aidan Hutchinson (Big ol’ goose egg, I hate to be “right” on this one, Hutch will bounce back.)

LB:

Start: Kaden Elliss (12 solo, 2 assist. Not sure how much more time we have, but let’s enjoy this ride!)

Start: Dre Greenlaw (4 solos, 1 assist, PD, FR. Didn’t deliver the tackle numbers, but made other plays to be a relevant IDP.)

Sit: Alex Singleton (4 solos, 4 assists. Strong numbers overall for his snap count. Mr. Efficiency strikes again.)

DB:
Start: Grant Delpit (4 solos, 1 assist, PD. Solid safety/DB numbers.)

Start: Vonn Bell (4 solos, 2 assists. Didn’t kill you, but definitely thought he could be more.)

Sit: Kerby Joseph (3 solos, 3 assists. Not great, but delivered more than I anticipated.)

START: Uchenna Nwosu, Seattle Seahawks, DL30

Uchenna Nwosu has stepped into a role as a lead edge rusher for the Seahawks nicely this season after signing a 2-year $9.5 million contract this last off-season. His performance outside the box score supports this too. He has a very nice, 12.85% pressure rate and a pass-rush PFF grade of 71.3 on the season so far. For IDP, he has played nearly 600 snaps already and is taking 77% of his team’s defensive snaps, both career highs. Having that kind of snap count is ideal for our edge rushers and pairing that with the other metrics, he would be in consideration for an every week play. The real kicker though, is the favorable matchup against the hapless Los Angeles Rams. This is one of the most favorable matchups for pass rushers as they are allowing a league worst, 30% pressure rate and the 2nd worst sack conversion at 20%. We talked about Nwosu on the week 12 preview episode from a dynasty perspective (check out the episode with me and Josh for more detail!) and for this week, fire up Uchenna as a low-end DL1.

START: Leonard Floyd, Los Angeles Rams, DL41

Floyd has started off his 2022 campaign with less than consistent or ideal production (both NFL and IDP). However, he has had a nice surge here over the last 5 games. A total of 17 pressures and all 5 of his sacks so far this season coming in those games as well. In that same stretch, he has a respectable 10.4% pressure rate to go along with his 5 sacks, which a solid bump up from the first 6 games where he had a pressure rate of 6.4% and 0 sacks. Now Floyd has the Seahawks for an opponent and they are surrendering the 7th worst pressure rate at 27% and the 4th worst sack conversion rate at 18%. These things, combined with the Rams run defense being one of the lone bright spots, expect plenty of passing opportunities from the Seahawks and Floyd to capitalize. Floyd should be a mid-range DL2 this week, with nice upside.

SIT (fade): Matthew Judon, New England Patriots, DL24

Matthew Judon has been on a tear lately this season. Since week 3, he has recorded a minimum of 3 pressures and only has 3 games where he did not record a sack. So saying Judon is a “sit” this week is really more of a fade, or a lowering of expectations. Judon has delivered a strong 17.1% pressure rate over this entire season and 14 sacks. Now he is taking on Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills offensive line which has allowed an 8th best 24% pressure rate and the 2nd best 8% sack conversion rate. Is a sack possible for Judon? Absolutely. However, I am not feeling great for that and his multi-sack upside is not really in play at this point too. Finding options better than Judon might be tough, but he is more in the mid-DL3 range for me this week.

START: Chad Muma, Jacksonville Jaguars, LB63

Chad Muma was a rookie on a lot of IDP fans radars during the draft cycle. He ended up with strong draft capital being pick #70 overall and going in the 3rd round. In most spots this would have netted him a chance to start from week 1, however, he ended up in a crowded LB room in Jacksonville with newly signed Foyesade Olukun and another rookie who was a 1st round pick in Devin Lloyd. As such, he sat behind the money and the draft capital most of this season. Week 10 before the Jags bye, he took over the 4th quarter from Devin Lloyd. Then the bye week, which historically is the time where teams implement changes to schemes or the depth charts. After the bye week, Muma jumped to 100% snap LB alongside Foyesade and Lloyd quickly was relegated to a lesser role. Nothing from the coaches explicitly stated this was a matchup decision, just that they wanted to “see what he can do”. I am in on the Muma hype train and am looking to pick him up where I don’t already have him. This week he is a strong LB3 play and you might want to try and trade for him where you can (assuming your league trade deadline hasn’t already passed).

START: Christian Harris, Houston Texans, LB60

The Christian bros were broken up last week when Christian Harris went down with a shoulder injury, but they say there is not structural damage and he was back at practice on Wednesday as a limited participant. However, Harris was a 100% LB 3 out of the past 4 weeks (with the other week being 88% of snaps) which is showing, they want him out there moving forward for the Texans. But they will need him this week against the Browns and Nick Chubb (and the return of Watson). Even with Watson under center, expect more of Chubb as Watson gets used to playing an actual game with this offense. This is a classic game of strength (Browns rushing attack) vs. weakness (Texans run defense). Expect Harris to be very busy all game. Harris is low-end LB3 this week but is someone to target in your dynasty / keeper leagues. He is likely to be the LB1 next year with Kirksey the only competition for that and he has a clear out of his contract in 2023.

SIT: Lavonte David, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, LB32

Lavonte David is one of the greatest IDPs that there ever was, so listing him as a sit this week is not something I really ever considered I would be writing. But here we are, nonetheless. David finally topped 5 tackles in the last 3 weeks with his game against Cleveland, but that was a game that went to overtime and gave him a whopping 79 plays. He was able to give us 8 total tackles which is 10.1% tackle efficiency, not that great for 3-down LBs. He also only has 3 pressures on the season and only 25 pass rush snaps. His once strong upside for sacks and big-plays has dropped off considerably. This week against the New Orleans Saints leaves a lot to be desired as well in terms of overall production. The Saints are only running 51.3 plays per game over the last 3 and against the Bucs it doesn’t look much better for them. Snap numbers like that, and even if he reaches 10% tackle efficiency, you are talking about 5 stops with no upside. This makes Lavonte a very low-end LB4 at best.

START: Rodney McLeod, Indianapolis Colts, DB91

At the start of the 2022 season, Nick Cross was all the rage for the Colts box safety role in Gus Bradley’s Cover 3 defense. As the season progressed Cross disappeared into the background and the Colts’ secondary become a big ambiguous. But McLeod quietly took that box safety role and delivered very steady numbers. He is most certainly not thriving in the role and putting up gaudy IDP production. He is however, on a 9-week streak of 5+ tackles and has only missed 3 total tackles on the season! This is almost the literal definition of consistency. He has the Cowboys this week who run the ball the 8th most and with McLeod taking 69% of his snaps in the sweet spot, he is primed to deliver his 5-7 tackle window and then some. Fire up McLeod as a high-end DB3 option for this week and a great depth piece for any IDP roster.

START: DeAndre Houston-Carson, Chicago Bears, DB58

My early season buy of Eddie Jackson is out for the rest of the season with his Lisfranc injury suffered in their week 12 loss to the Jets. This wasn’t the only injury the Bears dealt with in their secondary either. Rookie standout Jaquan Brisker was out with a concussion and based on average turnarounds for players suffering a concussion this season, it is not likely that he sees the field this weekend either. Enter, DeAndre Houston-Carson. He has stepped in last season and in week 12 and during those time, he has assumed that role of box safety. With this role most likely belonging to him and the Packers coming to Chicago, I expect a heavy dose of the run game or at best, utilizing quick throws with an injured Aaron Rodgers. This is more of a strong volume play for IDP based on injuries, but even so, he is a strong DB3 play this week.

SIT: John Johnson III, Cleveland Browns, DB26

John Johnson III is coming off back-to-back strong weeks for IDP production in week 11 (9 total stops) and week 12 (6 total stops). But don’t let this lead you to expecting more of the same this week against the Houston Texans. Johnson primarily plays in the deep safety role and these past two weeks that he found success, was against two of the most pass heavy offenses in the NFL in Tampa Bay (2nd in pass plays ran) and Buffalo (8th, has been dropping since Allen’s elbow injury). Johnson will need sustained pass volume to continue his success and the Texans are not going to deliver that. Plus, the best way to attack the Browns this season has been through their rush defense so far and this feels like a perfect chance for the Texans to get back to their running game with rookie Dameon Pierce then. Johnson is a high-end DB4 play for me this week.

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By Jake

Updated: November 24th 2022

It’s the holiday season and I hope we all have a ton to be thankful for this year. Let’s see if we can find a bit more to be thankful for with some great lineup decisions for all your IDP teams out there!
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show for them are what is the ECR over from Fantasy Pros for this week.

WEEK 11 RECAP
DL:
Start: Alex Highsmith (1 sack, 2 QB hits)
Start: Denico Autry (27 snaps, QB hit. Injured in the 2nd half but a lower performance up to that point)

Sit: Khalil Mack (1 hit, 1 solo)

LB:

Start: Frankie Luvu (Sack, 6 solos, 4 assists)

Start: Jamin Davis (2 solos, 3 assists)

Sit: Zaven Collins (3 solos, 3 assists)

DB:
Start: Dane Belton (2 solos. 59% of snaps, unstable usage and limited production, I’d pivot away moving forward)

Start: Tyrann Mathieu (5 solos, PD)

Sit: Kyle Dugger (Sack, 3 solos, 2 assists, PD. 90% of snaps! Dugger season might be in full effect moving forward)

START: Michael Danna, Kansas City Chiefs, DL53

Michael Danna has spent most of the season as a rotational pass-rusher for the Chiefs and has seen 53% of the snaps this year for their defense. Normally, not an ideal target to start. However, he has found a respectable 10.9% pass-rush pressure rate in his limited snaps. This week he gets the Los Angeles Rams who have the highest sack conversion from pressures allowed. In such a positive matchup, he shouldn’t need as many opportunities to deliver big-play upside. Additionally, the Rams should be in a negative game script that involved more passing, only increasing the opportunities for Danna. This is a deeper play, but should be available in the vast majority of leagues and has solid upside this week as a low-end DL3!

START: Lorenzo Carter, Atlanta Falcons, DL69

Lorenzo Carter has been a consistent figure in the Atlanta Falcons defensive front. He has seen 81% of the snaps so far this season, which is very strong usage for a DL position. Carter has a very favorable matchup against the Commanders who are allowing a 29% pressure rate and 17% sack conversion rate. Even though his pass-rush pressure rate is average at 7.8%. The nice bonus to his matchup this weekend as well, is his solid PFF run defense grade of 65.9 for the season. This paired with the Commanders focus on the run game (44% of plays are run) and are one of the higher plays ran per game over the last 3 weeks at 69.7. With these things considered, I like Lorenzo as a high-end DL3 candidate.

SIT: Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit Lions, DL20

This pains me to even consider Hutch here, especially with such elite snap counts, 86% on the season. However, he has delivered some big performances this season (and I believe will be a strong dynasty asset) he doesn’t have an ideal matchup against the Buffalo Bills this weekend. The Bills have only allowed a 24% pressure rate, top third in the league, as well as 8% sack conversion, which is 2nd best. Hutchinson’s IDP performances have been brought up by some unlikely things to continue. He has 2 games with interceptions in the last 3 weeks as well as 3 of his 5.5 sacks coming in 1 game in week 2. Additionally, his tackle floor for snaps played his average at best, 2.3 tackles per game. You can always start Hutch if you need him, but if you got better DL2/3 options, I would fire them up instead.

START: Kaden Elliss, New Orleans Saints, LB29

Kaden Elliss, the man behind the man. With Pete Werner experiencing an injury and having surgery, Kaden has stepped up into that role and has he thrived for IDP purposes. He is in week 3 of that recovery so if you or someone else hasn’t already grabbed Elliss, do so and fire him up. The Saints are optimistic that Werner will try and play again this year, but until then we will roll with Kaden. The last two weeks he has seen snap percentages of 96% and 92% and he used them to deliver 2.5 sacks, 18 tackles, 3 QB hits, PD, and FF. His sack production has been very efficient but he has done well this whole year with a very strong 77.8 pass-rush PFF grade on the season. Last week, he topped out at his pass-rush grade with a 91.2 performance and I think this is more of what is to come. A great tackle floor with big-play, sack upside. Now, against the 49ers and their stronger pass protection, you’d think its less than ideal, but they are running nearly 69 snaps per game and the increased opportunity should balance out for Elliss this week. You should be looking at Elliss as a top 20 LB this week with next week looking the same too.

START: Dre Greenlaw, San Francisco 49ers, LB34

Dre Greenlaw has just consistently been an efficient tackler and continues to do so this season at 14.9% and only missed 6 tackles on the season so far. Greenlaw tends to take the coverage side of the RB in most situations between him and Fred Warner. The matchup with the Saints and Alvin Kamara means Greenlaw can take that tackle efficiency and increased opportunities facing off against the Saints and Kamara. This matchup favors his Greenlaw’s ability and playstyle. As a note, for LB we love to find someone with near 100% snaps and the last 3 weeks have been rough for Greenlaw, but don’t let that fool with you and ejection in week 10 and starters being pulled in a blowout in week 11. Don’t let those numbers shy you away from Greenlaw. He is a strong candidate for LB2 this week and most of the weeks going forward.

SIT: Alex Singleton, Denver Broncos, LB27

Alex Singleton is Mr. Efficiency. He has a career tackle efficiency of 17.6% and this season is sitting at a cool 19.7% efficiency this season. While this is great, you still need the volume to make it count for overall production. Singleton has passed Jonas Griffith as LB2 on the depth chart, but he is still only seeing 59% of the snap count. While normally he can turn that into a usable week for IDP, his matchup against the Carolina Panthers is not ideal. Their offense has struggled all year and they are running the worst, 55.6 plays per game on the season. This does not bode well for a strong week for Alex and I would be looking elsewhere this week for an LB3.

START: Grant Delpit, Cleveland Browns, DB29

Grant Delpit has seen very close to 100% of the defense’s snaps for the entire season. Along with the elite usage, he has taken 56% of his total snaps from the “sweet spot” (DL, box, slot). This is great usage for any safety in IDP and as such he is a strong DB2/3 candidate on that alone. Combined with a matchup against the Buccaneers this weekend who run 67 plays per game and 72 over the last 3 means even more opportunities. And Tom Brady is leading the league in passing attempts from 0-9 yards this season, which lines up greatly with players in that “sweet spot”. Delpit should be a strong DB2 candidate DB1 upside.

START: Vonn Bell, Cincinnati Bengals, DB32

Vonn Bell is another safety with elite snap usage, with 98% played for the entirety of the season. He is sitting at 56.1% of his total snaps as well from the “sweet spot”. His matchup this week, however, does not have a pass heavy team for him to feast upon for IDP production. He gets a run-heavy team that will continue to attack the middle of the field with their run game. This gives Bell a much stronger floor than his DB32 ranking justifies. It is a solid floor play this week, with a lower ceiling, but this still makes Bell a high-end DB3 to a low-end DB2.

SIT: Kerby Joseph, Detroit Lions, DB13

Kerby Joseph has been a pleasant surprise for the Detroit Lion’s defense this year as a rookie coming on due to injuries. Once given the opportunity he has seen almost a near perfect 100% snap count. And with those snaps, he has found a way to deliver big plays with 3 interceptions and 5 PDs. The INTs are not something we should rely on this point but take more into his upside. However, teams have been taking the cover-2, or two high safeties approach against the Bills offense this year, which leads to a lower tackle efficiency overall and creates a great dependency on big-plays, which Kerby has delivered at times this year. Joseph has strong usage and a matchup that should allow for a higher snap count this week, but his floor feels too low for me to confidently use him as a DB1/2 this week. His level sits as DB3 for me but if you want to plug him in focusing on big-play opportunities, it does exist.

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