2022 RSO Writer’s League Rookie Draft

Updated: May 16th 2022

Rookie drafts for Reality Sports Online teams involve a number of considerations different than a normal dynasty league.  Selected rookies are typically given three or four year contracts at, hopefully, a below market contract.  RSO GMs then have the option of extending a player with franchise tags, extensions, or final year options (depending on the chosen settings in your league) which usually are near or above market value for a given player.  This makes the initial rookie contract years potentially extremely valuable and the real measure of worth for a rookie player.

The RSO Writer’s League recently finished our three round rookie draft with results posted below. The league is a 10-team Superflex PPR format.  This article analyzes some general thoughts on the draft in comparison to other drafts and my own pick decisions along with a couple of other interesting players.

Writer’s League Draft

Overall Draft Thoughts

The Writer’s league draft likely mirrors other drafts in many ways.  The players of picks 1-7 probably remain the same in most formats, in some order, with maybe one or two surprises sneaking in.  Likewise, the 8-13 tier in this draft represents players likely seen in most superflex drafts for this range.  Things get very interesting afterwards.  I wouldn’t be surprised by any of around fifteen to twenty names go next in the draft, a true crap-shoot.  It’s a very broad tier of players where team fit and individual evaluation will drive selections.  This group is highlighted with role-specific running backs, 3rd round NFL quarterbacks who might never be even the short-term answers, and the top tight ends who are notoriously slow developing for fantasy football.

It’s also worth comparing this rookie class to last year’s group.  The lack of legitimate starting quarterback prospects really lowers the potential of a rookie class in superflex leagues.  One could reasonably make the argument that every 1st round pick from 2021 would be in consideration for a top-five spot in this year’s draft.  The afore-mentioned lack of highly drafted quarterbacks contributes to some intriguing dart throws potentially available in the 3rd round of drafts.  Willis and Ridder offer excellent athletic upside (and with it fantasy upside) if they ever get starting QB consideration by their teams.  The sheer amount of mid-round running backs taken by the NFL in this year’s draft makes for a lot of potential committee backs with significant chances of some relevance for fantasy leagues.

Notes on Selected Picks

1.08, Kenny Pickett QB

Pickett earns the distinction as the only quarterback selected in the first round of the NFL draft with the 20th selection by the Pittsburgh Steelers.  He could start as early as this season with an uninspiring Steelers quarterback depth chart.  The Pittsburgh product showed excellent accuracy on and off platform.  Pickett made one of the most dramatic leaps we have ever seen from a college quarterback.  The following excerpt from PFF’s Draft Guide displays just how big of an improvement Pickett made last season.

There are a host of potential downsides.  The question is was last season a one year wonder?  Pickett provides adequate arm strength and mobility but nothing that will “wow” anyone while also struggling with pressure at times.  Does he possess a fantasy ceiling of more than a moderately useful QB2?  Pittsburgh might also end unexpectedly bad in a stacked AFC leading to a high draft pick next season.  NFL teams have shown a willingness to move on quickly from these mid-first type quarterbacks if they don’t pan out.  That makes his job security very questionable at this stage.

1.10, Skyy Moore WR

My first pick ended up with the new Kansas City wide receiver, my WR6 both pre and post-NFL Draft.  The Central Michigan product and James Jones favorite gets to play with one of the top quarterbacks in the league on his rookie deal. Moore brings inside outside versatility despite a smaller frame with a solid build, big confident hands, and explosive play-making routes.  He rated among the top wide receivers in the draft for open percentage and catch rate statistics per The Analyst.  There’s also room for improvement to Moore’s game as he only converted to wide receiver in college.  The Kansas City provides lots of opportunity, especially after this season, as all the primary wide receivers are in the final contract year or have contract outs after the 2022 season.

The major concern with Moore, and small school prospects in general, is how they translate to the NFL after winning against lesser athletic competition in college.  Moore’s 4.41 forty-time and elite-level 10-yard split helps alleviate that concern to a degree by showing off enough athleticism to win at the next level.

2.02, Jahan Dotson WR

Dotson seems a player that the NFL was always higher on when compared to the fantasy community.  Multiple reports predicted him going in the first round before the draft.  Dotson is another smaller receiver who nonetheless played a lot in the outside in college (a lot more than players like Burks and London).  Many film analysts grade Dotson with the best hands in the draft and he had to utilize those skills regularly thanks to some of the worst college quarterbacking from a major school last year.  The former Penn State star produced a fabulous third year and could have entered the draft after it if he wanted. He should start immediately for the Commanders and Washington doesn’t have anything locked in at wide receiver for the future as Terry McLaurin still has no extension.

Size likely presents obstacles to Dotson ever becoming an upper-level after-the-catch receiver and also showed up as an issue when faced with physical corners.  His college contested wins may not materialize against bigger, more athletic corners in the NFL.

2.03, James Cook  RB

Cook is easily one of the most fascinating players in rookie drafts.  Most draft analysts considered Cook a mid round undersized committee back at the NFL level. He routinely went in the late second round of fantasy drafts before surprising second round draft capital by the Buffalo Bills but has seen a meteoric rise since.  This is as late as I have seen him go in rookie drafts after the NFL draft.  Cook rates as the top receiving back by many.  He looks a lot like his brother Dalvin when running outside showing off easy speed and fluid movement skills.

The real question for Cook is what role he plays for the Bills.  Is Buffalo expecting a primary back, a role he never played in college and one we don’t see often at his size?  Will he be primarily used on passing downs? If so, Buffalo ranked bottom-five in running back target percentage the last two seasons when Josh Allen emerged as a top quarterback.  The Bills clearly wanted to upgrade the receiving back position after signing J.D. McKissic before he backed out of the deal.  Is Allen suddenly going to be a lower depth-of-target thrower and reduce his role near the endzone?  Overall, there are a lot of questions on what Cook actually does for Buffalo and how that translates to fantasy football but also a ton of upside if he takes a big role on a top-tier offense.


Bio:  Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

More Analysis by Bernard Faller

2022 RSO Pre-Draft Rookie Rankings

Updated: April 16th 2022

Context is always a major factor in the success of an incoming rookie’s performance as it relates to immediate production. While we wait for the external factors to be determined such as team composition/competition and coaching staff philosophy, we can try to sketch out which players from the incoming 2022 class stand out in terms of broad-spectrum talent. Those that fit with a wider range of usages often yield the most immediate translation to the NFL but specialists can also thrive in the right systems. Lamar Jackson’s success is largely due to the Ravens changing a large part of their philosophy to commit to what Jackson’s talent was rather than trying to mould him into a prototypical quarterback.

Like the NFL, RSO managers need rookies to produce immediately upon entering the league to gain a competitive advantage under the rookie wage scale compared to the veteran market. Hitting on draft selections, especially first-round selections which carry the closest value to the mid-tier veteran market, is what often separates the championship tier teams from the playoff hopefuls.

Below are our pre-draft rankings based on the standard PPR, one (1) starting quarterback league for the first four (4) rounds of rookie drafts. A few players will be highlighted in each round that are targets to watch where and how deep they are drafted as it could affect their rankings in the final, post-draft rankings.

Round 1

Overall Ranking First Name Last Name Position School Positional Ranking
1.01 Breece Hall RB Iowa State RB1
1.02 Jameson Williams WR Alabama WR1
1.03 Drake London WR USC WR2
1.04 Garrett Wilson WR Ohio State WR3
1.05 Kenneth Walker III RB Michigan State RB2
1.06 Chris Olave WR Ohio State WR4
1.07 Treylon Burks WR Arkansas WR5
1.08 George Pickens WR Georgia WR6
1.09 Christian Watson WR North Dakota State WR7
1.10 Jahan Dotson WR Penn State WR8
1.11 Isaiah Spiller RB Texas A&M RB3
1.12 Skyy Moore WR Western Michigan WR9

 

Jameson Williams, Alabama – If you are a contending team who lucked into their choice of anyone but Breece Hall at 1.02 I would not fault anyone for passing on Williams coming off an ACL surgery. In terms of BPA though, he stands above both London and Wilson in terms of dynamic upside that fits with where the NFL has been trending with receivers over the last half-decade. Because of his injury, he could also slide down NFL draft boards to be paired with better quarterback talent.

Kenneth Walker, Michigan State & Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M – It seems more this year than any other year the likelihood of “nuked” landing spots for running backs could drop almost all running backs not named Breece Hall. Running back is the lifeblood of fantasy though and both Walker and Spiller showed enough talent that unless they fall behind far superior talent in the NFL, they will likely be first-round rookie picks. Spiller is the most likely to fall out of the first round due to how the community has been treating him since the end of the season.

Skyy Moore, Western Michigan – Every year there are players in the first round that in hindsight seemed like obvious candidates to avoid but we are still intrigued enough that we just have to grab them in the first round. While many think this reflects more for Christian Watson my candidate this year is Skyy Moore who I think needs to land in an offense that fits his playstyle more than the other top 10 receivers. A Jarvis Landry/Golden Tate type of prospect he could have tremendous value in PPR leagues if used properly. His team will ultimately decide for me whether he stays in the first round.

Round 2

Overall Ranking First Name Last Name Position School Positional Ranking
2.01 Rachaad White RB Arizona State RB4
2.02 Alec Pierce WR Cincinnati WR10
2.03 Khalil Shakir WR Boise State WR11
2.04 David Bell WR Purdue WR12
2.05 Brian Robinson RB Alabama RB5
2.06 Zamir White RB Georgia RB6
2.07 James Cook RB Georgia RB7
2.08 Matt Corral QB Mississippi QB1
2.09 Justyn Ross WR Clemson WR13
2.10 Malik Willis QB Liberty QB2
2.11 Jerome Ford RB Cincinnati RB8
2.12 John Metchie WR Alabama WR14

 

David Bell, Purdue – Bell has been one of those players in free fall all offseason going from a mid-first round talent to a mid-second round player that most have just taken off their boards completely. While the metrics are not great he is a player that I kept watching on film and wondering if the combine really is who he will be in the NFL. Ultimately, NFL teams will tell us what they think of Bell and if he falls to Day 3 he will fall further in rookie rankings.

Matt Corral, Ole Miss – Watching tape I think Corral, in a “meh” QB class, has the opportunity to be the most productive and long-standing quarterback in this class. He has all the modern NFL QB traits and projects as a Derek Carr/Andy Dalton level of talent. Both were second-round talents that beat the odds to be relevant in the league and Corral can be the same under the right tutelage.

Justyn Ross, Clemson – The amazing breakout metrics at Clemson keeps my eyes wide for a player like Ross. His scary neck injury reminds me a lot of fellow Clemson receiver Mike Williams who people questioned whether he would be able to come back to full speed. While Ross will not have the draft capital that Williams had Ross, like Bell, is a player that I likely will continue to be higher on than most. Ultimately, how far down the NFL board he falls will decide if he stays in my round two (2) or if he falls to the back half of rookie drafts.

Round 3

Overall Ranking First Name Last Name Position School Positional Ranking
3.01 Dameon Pierce RB Florida RB9
3.02 Wan’Dale Robinson WR Kentucky WR15
3.03 Trey McBride TE Colorado State TE1
3.04 Kenny Pickett QB Pittsburgh QB3
3.05 Pierre Strong Jr. RB South Dakota State RB10
3.06 Kyren Williams RB Notre Dame RB11
3.07 Zonovan Knight RB North Carolina State RB12
3.08 Jalen Tolbert WR South Alabama WR16
3.09 Sam Howell QB North Carolina QB4
3.10 Romeo Doubs WR Nevada WR17
3.11 Tyler Allgeier RB BYU RB13
3.12 Calvin Austin WR Memphis WR18

 

Dameon Pierce, Florida – outside of the top 25 guys it is always about a landing spot that can make or break a player’s immediate fantasy value. If Pierce can find a backfield that is relatively open either late Day 2 or the start of Day 3 he has the opportunity to be the late-round gem of this draft. His Damien Harris comps are comparable in that while primarily the “thumper” back he also could be used in the passing game more than most believe if in the right system.

Wan’Dale Robinson, Kentucky – While ranked 26th overall, my fantasy teams will have zero shares of Robinson who would have the land in the perfect situation to break the mould of 5’8” receivers being relevant. Could there be a chance a team moves him to be their third-down, slot running back which could profile better for success? His production at Kentucky is the only thing that keeps him viable in the eyes of fantasy football.

Tyler Allgeier, BYU – Immediately watching Allgeier I saw Samaje Perine as this wrecking ball of a running back. Many will cringe at the thought of Perine as a prospect but with Allgeier being taken closer to the 3/4 turn rather than the mid-second round value Perine held this is more reflective of what their talent levels are. A team that focuses on the running game around the goal line without a quarterback threat to steal sneak opportunities would be ideal for Allgeier.

Round 4

Overall Ranking First Name Last Name Position School Positional Ranking
4.01 Charlie Kolar TE Iowa State TE2
4.02 Tyler Badie RB Missouri RB14
4.03 Kevin Harris RB South Carolina RB15
4.04 Carson Strong QB Nevada QB5
4.05 D’Vonte Price RB Florida International RB16
4.06 Desmond Ridder QB Cincinnati QB6
4.07 Greg Dulcich TE UCLA TE3
4.08 Kennedy Brooks RB Oklahoma RB17
4.09 Hassan Haskins RB Michigan RB18
4.10 Kyle Phillips WR UCLA WR19
4.11 Cade Otton TE Washington TE4
4.12 Tyquan Thornton WR Baylor WR20

 

Charlie Kolar, Iowa State – Kolar has zero value as a blocker which might make it difficult for him to stay on the field initially but he profiles as one of the better receiving tight ends in this class, which is where the fantasy points are. Will he produce in a way that will make him worthy of a draft pick, who knows, but with a guaranteed four (4) years to see what happens the best place for lottery picks is at the end of your draft.

Tyler Badie, Missouri – I wrote in my notes that Badie seems like the running back who will never have a coaching staff give him the full workload but under the right two-back system could be a Giovanni Bernard/Tevin Coleman type of receiving back. Any offense that uses a primary pass-catching back like Washington with J.D. McKissic could make Badie the depth running back to have at the end of drafts.

Desmond Ridder, Cincinnati – If a team takes Ridder in the first round I hope it is later where he can sit and watch a year’s worth of practices from a veteran starter before he has to lead the team. He is being compared to Jalen Hurts in terms of his athletic upside but I think in any other year Ridder would be a Day 3 selection that has a long shot at a consistent starting role. Even in Superflex leagues, I would be hesitant to see what his situation is before even considering drafting him at Supeflex prices.

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

2022 NFL Free Agency Look

Updated: March 22nd 2022

This free agency group once looked liked a great one, particularly at wide receiver.  Franchise tags to some of the top wide receivers and tight ends diminish the luster somewhat but there is still a lot of talent for NFL teams and potential fantasy rosters.  There is no shortage of starting-caliber receivers and running backs for teams but the available group of quarterbacks remains primarily relegated to the fringe starter class, as is usually the case.  Below the reader finds a synopsis of the most relevant free agent fantasy players.

Quarterback

Jameis Winston

The narrative is that 2021 was a great year for Winston largely due to significantly cutting down on his interceptions (3) in seven games before an ACL tear.  The data shows more of a middling year with the Saints limiting his volume (which still makes a very good free agent quarterback).  He was PFF’s 23rd ranked quarterback in passing grade while posting one of the worst completion percentages in the league.  He’s likely at the top of some team’s QB free agent list in this group though.

Mitchell Trubisky

It’s interesting that Trubisky is one of the most talked about free agent quarterback this offseason.  The former Chicago starter displayed abysmal down-to-down accuracy in his time with the Bears.  Was a year receiving Brian Daboll’s tutelage in Buffalo enough to correct his mechanical issues?

Ryan Fitzpatrick

Washington signed Fitzpatrick to be their short-term starting quarterback after some quality play in Tampa Bay.  Unfortunately a hip injury ended his season before it began.  He could be an emergency option for teams that miss out on the top trades or free agent candidates.

Tyrod Taylor

Taylor offers rushing ability with bottom-level NFL arm talent and started at quarterback for three NFL teams.    There’s a chance another team gives him a chance.

Teddy Bridgewater

Bridgewater ranks among the bottom-level starter / good backup tier and also started at quarterback for three NFL teams.    There’s a chance another team gives him a chance.

Others to watch: Marcus Mariota

Running Back

Melvin Gordon

Gordon produced another quality season with Denver.  He is a good rushing down back and capable of catching the ball but isn’t a route-winner, someone better as the lead back of a committee.  Gordon might look for one more substantial contract going into his 29 year old season or could return to Denver if the offers aren’t up to his standard.

Leonard Fournette

Fournette had probably his best year as a pro averaging 4.5 yards per carry and finished inside PFF’s top-32 running backs for the first time in his career.  He’s capable enough to play three downs but not good enough to stand out at any phase of the game.  Tampa Bay will reportedly let Fournette test the market.

James Conner

The Cardinals hit nicely with Conner on a cheap contract, playing particularly well in the passing game.  Health issues probably keep him from a huge touch role but he is another back capable of playing solidly on all downs.

Cordarrelle Patterson

The “come out of nowhere award” in fantasy football goes to Patterson who totaled over 1,100 yards (easily his top performance) in his ninth season.  His best chance of repeating the performance is staying in Atlanta.  Tread with caution in fantasy with the most role-uncertain back on the list.

Sony Michel

New England and the Rams primarily used Michel as a two-down committee back throughout his career, somewhat odd considering how good Michel was on screens in college.  His role probably caps out to more of the same at the next stop.

Rashaad Penny

Penny exploded to end the year with four out of five games of at least 135 rushing yards and ended up averaging 6.3 yards per carry for the season.  He’s the biggest wild-card in the group with numerous injuries so far to the former first-round pick but averages 5.6 yards per carry over his limited attempts during his career.

Raheem Mostert

His best scheme fit lies with the 49ers and he’s put up good yardage when available.  Will he actually be healthy?  How much of the workload would he take from Elijah Mitchell if he stays in San Francisco?

Chase Edmonds

A fantasy football favorite, Edmonds will likely never attain the role many want for him.  His role grew every year in Arizona however and was a useful fantasy option last season. He maintains value in the wide-open Cardinal offense if he stays.

J.D. McKissic

The bane of Antonio Gibson truthers, McKissic is one of the quality receiving down backs in the league.  He provided flex-level PPR production the last two seasons in Washington.

Others to watch: Marlon Mack, James White, Phillip Lindsay, Ronald Jones, Jerick McKinnon

Wide Receiver

Allen Robinson

Robinson chose a poor year to have his worst season as a professional making him an interesting watch in free agency.  Many considered him “QB-proof” before and tallied at least 150 targets in every full season. Was last season a blip in a disinterested year with a rookie quarterback or the case of a non-burner receiver slowing down?

Will Fuller

The issue with Fuller is well documented.  He hasn’t played more than 11 games since his rookie season.  With that being said, Fuller’s a game-changer who forces teams to change the way they play defense and has multiple spurts of significant fantasy production.  He likely receives another one-year prove-it deal.

Juju Smith-Schuster

Many considered Juju the among the top dynasty wide receivers just a few short seasons ago after a monstrous sophomore season.  It’s been downhill from there with questions about the value of a “big-slot” option.  He’ll need to be paired with an outside route-winner to open up the field to maximize his traits.

Odell Beckham Jr.

The Rams got one of the better deals last season on their way to Super Bowl glory picking up Beckham Jr. on the cheap mid-year after Robert Woods went down.  OBJ showed off his explosive traits and extraordinary hands in a limited fashion acclimating to the Rams’ offense.  An unfortunate ACL-tear (his 2nd in recent years) in the Super Bowl means he probably won’t be ready to start next year and will likely diminish his contract.

Christian Kirk

The Arizona wide receiver does his best work from the slot but not in the quick shifty way, winning in the intermediate and deeper routes. He also has some scheme diversity in the usage history.  Kirk has two 100 target seasons under his belt and is just 25 years old.

D.J. Chark

Chark broke out his 2nd season but struggled when the offense tried to run more through him and he was forced to beat more physical coverage.  The thin-framed receiver shows explosive linear speed, plus athletic traits, and should have more success on a team as a complimentary intermediate and deep piece.

Michael Gallup

Dallas looks ready to sign Gallup to an extension after reportedly trading Amari Cooper.  He isn’t elite at anything and doesn’t possess great speed but is a good all-around receiver.  Gallup brings boundary-winning ability with solid ball skills and produced 1,100 yards in only 14 games his sophomore year.

Antonio Brown

Brown still displayed high-end receiver ability ending as the PPR WR9 in per game scoring last year.  The odds are long that someone signs him after self-destructing mid-year and with a host of behavior issue but there’s still a good player to be had if a team takes a chance.

Others to watch: Jamison Crowder, Marquez Valdes-Scantling, Russell Gage, Zay Jones, T.Y. Hilton

Tight End

Rob Gronkowski

Does Gronk retire (again) with Brady bowing out?  There’s still plenty left in the tank if he returns.  The TE4 in per game fantasy scoring last season would upgrade most tight end rooms as a combo blocker and receiver.

Zach Ertz

Ertz fills the need for a reliable receiving option best suited to winning against underneath zone coverage and finished as the fantasy TE11 option.

Evan Engram

The Giants primarily used Engram as an underneath man-beater and he struggles with consistency at the catch point while offering little as a blocker.  Will a new team better utilize his deep speed and big play ability?

Gerald Everett

Everett specializes as an athletic undersized after-the-catch weapon with willingness to block, similar to a discount David Njoku who was franchise tagged by the Browns.   He’ll need a special scheme to fully utilize his talent.

Jared Cook

The elder one continues producing as a strictly receiving weapon but might finally be slowing down.  Does he get one more shot?

Others to watch: O.J. Howard, C.J. Uzomah, Tyler Conklin, Mo Allie-Cox, Hayden Hurst


Bio:  Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

More Analysis by Bernard Faller

Week 14 Street FA Report

Updated: December 7th 2021

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer one (1) player that is owned in <25% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

K.J. Osborn, WR – MIN (Owned 49%)

Week 13: 4 Rec/41 yards, 1 TD

The news from Minnesota is that Adam Thielen avoided a season-ending ankle injury but it is likely that he misses multiple weeks because of said injury. For fantasy purposes, that might as well read as season-ending with only one (1) more week regular season week for most leagues. K.J. Osborn has already shown that he can have a high ceiling, scoring over 14 PPR points in three (3) weeks while Thielen was still in the lineup so his ascendance to the WR2 role should elevate his weekly floor over the final month of 2021. If you were planning on Thielen being a part of your playoff roster, Osborn is an obvious pickup this week.

Suggested Bid: $6,000,000

RB Adds

Carlos Hyde, RB – JAX (Owned 43%)

Week 13: 9 Car/24 yards, 1 TD, 1 Rec/-1 yard

For two (2) straight weeks James Robinson has fumbled and then been forced to split snaps with Carlos Hyde, much to fantasy managers’ chagrin. Nevertheless, when a coaching staff does not trust a player to execute they are not as likely to hold a large snap share so Hyde should continue to see his usage in the 40-50% range. At this point in the season it also makes sense to start “cuffing” any and all of the running backs that possesses a clear role in the case of injury to another starter. Hyde does not have much startability right now but any injury to Robinson, or another trip to Meyer’s dog house, could open up RB3 level production for him in December.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Adrian Peterson, RB – SEA (Owned 42%)

Week 13: 11 Car/16 yards, 1 TD

Full disclosure I do not think Peterson has much of anything left in the tank and I am surprised that he was able to join a second club in 2021 after his extremely pedestrian production in three (3) games with Tennessee. However, in just half a week of practice with Pete Carroll the team gave him a co-lead for the number of touches in Week 13 and the Seahawks have three (3) of their next four (4) games against rushing defenses in the bottom 10 in yards allowed. The broadcast crew said that Carroll was giddy to have Peterson in the building and his style fits what the Seahawks want to be doing. It should be Rashaad Penny who leads the backfield down the stretch but do not be surprised if the coaching staff gives Peterson more work than we all expect.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

WR Adds

Breshad Perriman, WR – TB (Owned 16%)

Week 13: 1 Rec/5 yards

Remember in 2019 when Breshad Perriman came out of nowhere in the fantasy playoffs to score 34 and 17 fantasy points? Antonio Brown is suspended two (2) more games and there are questions about if the Buccaneers will welcome him back with open arms even after he finishes his served time. I do not think that the level of scoring will be happening in 2021 that happened in 2019, both Mike Evans and Chris Godwin were out with injuries, but it does mean that Perriman continues as the WR3 in Tampa. He played on 84 percent of the snaps last week; Tyler Johnson was the WR4 with 13 percent, so once he has more practices with Tom Brady he may begin to see more targets. This is an offense that can throw 50 times a game winning or losing and thus there should be plenty of targets to go around.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

Josh Reynolds, WR – DET (Owned 38%)

Week 13: 4 Rec/69 yards

Lost in the theatrics of Amon-Ra St. Brown’s game winning touchdown was the fact that Josh Reynolds quietly put up double digit fantasy points for the second straight game since being claimed off waivers by Detroit. The Lions will continue to be in positive passing game script for the remainder of the season and thus Reynolds will continue to present a higher floor than most free agent wide receivers. Add him and start with confidence if your league is deep with flex/WR position.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

TE Add

Ricky Seals-Jones, TE – WAS (Owned 21%)

Week 13: N/A

Washington was likely slow playing the return of Ricky Seals-Jones as he practiced in limited capacity ahead of Week 13 but ultimately the coaching staff kept him out with Logan Thomas back. They will not have that luxury this week unfortunately as Thomas suffered what should be a season-ending knee injury. This means that Ricky Seals-Jones will immediately return to the TE1 role he had before being injured. In his first three (3) games as the starter for Thomas, Seals-Jones scored 9, 15, and 11 PPR points which is a solid floor for the free agent tight end position. If he is healthy enough to be in the lineup Week 14 and beyond he should present low TE1/consistent TE2 value in most matchups.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Sleeper Add (<25%)

Laquon Treadwell, WR – JAX (Owned 2.5%)

Week 13: 4 Rec/62 yards

It seems like a faint memory when in 2017 Laquon Treadwell was the rookie WR1 in drafts before falling further into obscurity each season from there. Over the last two (2) weeks in Jacksonville though, he has operated as the secondary option behind Laviska Shenault Jr. while averaging just shy of 10 PPR PPG. The coaching staff may be searching for answers as to what they can build around heading into next off-season and a soon-to-be 32 year old Marvin Jones likely is not in those plans. Treadwell is worth a stash for the remainder of the season and could be a low flex play some weeks.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

Week 13 Street FA Report

Updated: November 30th 2021

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 75% of RSO leagues that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer one (1) player that is owned in <25% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

Matt Breida, RB – BUF (Owned 35%)

Week 12: 9 Car/26 yards, 2 Rec/29 yards, 1 TD

The longest NFL regular season has taken its toll on the running back position and teams making the playoffs will be starting interesting options during the final weeks of the season. One of those options that may still be available is Matt Breida, who built upon his performance in week 11 to score 13.5 PPR points on Thanksgiving last week. His recent development as a weapon in the Bills’ offense also allowed for Zach Moss to be a healthy scratch in week 12, suggesting there might be more to come from Breida to end the regular season. The Bills play the Patriots next week who just gave up two big performances to Dontrell Hilliard and D’Onta Foreman.

Suggested Bid: $8,000,000

WR Add

Josh Reynolds, WR – DET (Owned 25%)

Week 12: 3 Rec/70 yards, 1 TD

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If only the Titans had another veteran receiver to lean on with Julio Jones and A.J. Brown out last week. Tennessee released Josh Reynolds earlier this season after he was buried on their depth chart but he has reemerged in Detroit as arguably their best wide receiver. Claimed less than three (3) weeks ago, Reynolds is already playing on 90 percent of the Lions’ offensive snaps which bodes well for both his floor and his ceiling in fantasy the rest of the season. We will do well to remember that this is still the Lions who are averaging only 15.8 points per game. Still, an NFL team’s WR1 should at least be rostered in every league and a reasonable starter in many.

Suggested Bid: $2,000,000

Devin Duvernay, WR – BAL (Owned 34%)

Week 12: 1 Rec/2 yards, 1 Car/13 yards

It seemed like during Sammy Watkins’ injury absence that Devin Duvernay was carving out a role for himself as the gadget, WR3 in Baltimore. He took a step back last week with only two (2) touches but the game was sloppy all around limiting the number of touches for everyone. Lamar Jackson should bounce back and one way to help a QB under pressure is to use plenty of smoke plays to get the defense going side-to-side. Duvernay has the big play ability to run reverses, screens, and deep shot plays. While his week-to-week value is boom or bust he has the opportunity over the next month to have his moments.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

TE Add

James O’Shaughnessy, TE – JAX (Owned 4%)

Week 12: 3 Rec/29 yards

James O’Shaughnessy played on 81 percent of the snaps and had five (5) targets in week 12 due to Dan Arnold exiting with an injury that likely ends his season. During the Jaguars’ previous three (3) games Arnold was seeing 7+ targets and scoring at least 10 PPR points in each game, which is a solid back-end TE1 option to Team Stream. O’Shaughnessy should slide right into the same role with the same level of incognito that Arnold had to the rest of the fantasy community. He can be added to most deep leagues now and is a viable streaming option the rest of the season.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

Sleeper Add (<25%)

Jauan Jennings, WR – SF (Owned 2%)

Week 12: 2 Rec/14 yards, 1 TD

The extent of Deebo Samuel’s injury is up to interpretation but the clear #2 option behind Brandon Aiyuk is Jauan Jennings at this point if Samuel’s injury keeps him out for multiple games. Jennings does not have the versatility to be an all-around weapon like Samuel but there are always scoring opportunities, like he did last week, in a 49ers offense that has put up at least 30 points in four (4) of their last five (5) games. Watch the injury reports this week and if Samuel does not make any improvements, Jennings is a worthy while stash going into week 13.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

Strength of Schedule Targets

Updated: November 25th 2021

With the fantasy regular season nearing the end in most RSO leagues, owners with competitive teams need to begin thinking about reinforcing their squads for the final push into the playoffs.  Below I lay out a few NFL teams with particularly favorable offensive schedules for the rest of season or in the fantasy playoffs (weeks 15-17).  Many of the players on these teams may not be considered must start options at this point.  Not all teams have notably great offenses, but RSO owners should at least entertain obtaining certain players from each team based on the schedule ahead.  Players in the final year of the contract make easier trade targets from teams out of the playoff picture.

Efficiency Strength of Schedule

The following graph shows projected strength of schedule ranks of passing vs rushing for weeks 11 to 17 from Sharp Football Stats.  Upward and toward the right indicate easier projected schedules.

High-End Passing Offenses

Dallas has put up the fourth most passing yards per game with third highest yards per attempt so far this year and get Michael Gallup back soon.  They have a great end of season schedule featuring three great matchups from week 14 to 16 against fellow NFC East Washington (twice) and the Giants.  Prescott, Lamb, and Cooper all have enormous potential to end the league year.

The Bengals don’t have the high end matchups to finish the year but also don’t have much in the way of “avoid” games either.  Cincinnati is one of the highest volume passing offenses in the NFL ranking 7th in attempts despite playing only 9 games.  Burrow, Chase, and Higgins make for high-cost acquisition targets while Boyd and Uzomah could be nice cheaper pieces for weekly matchups.

Lower-Tier Passing Options

Philadelphia’s end of year schedule is spectacular with two games against Washington and the Giants plus another game against bottom-feeder Jets.  The Eagles transformed into a run-heavy offense but with a passing-attack that should highly concentrate targets between rookie wide receiver Smith and newly-extended Dallas Goedert at tight end.

Las Vegas’ year turned to complete turmoil the last few weeks with loss of head coach Jon Gruden and speedster Henry Ruggs but have one of the best schedules from weeks 13 to 17 and many games which could turn into shootouts.  There is considerable volatility with the potential for many shoot-out games or complete dysfunction on the part of the Raiders.  The loss of Ruggs should firm up target share for tight Darren Waller and slot specialist Hunter Renfrow down the stretch.

San Francisco exists at the polar opposite ends of the volume/efficiency passing metrics for a run-heavy offense.  The 49ers average the fifth highest yards per attempt with the fourth fewest passing attempts.  The next five weeks include games against Jacksonville, Seattle, and Atlanta.  Set the wheels up for George Kittle and Deebo Samuel while Jimmy Garoppolo sits as a weekly streaming option for as long as San Francisco is in contention.  Rookie quarterback Trey Lance would instantly become a starting fantasy quarterback option if he eventually starts but would be scary for the pass catchers.

While Houston and Cleveland have excellent end of year schedules, the state of both offenses make it difficult to trust many of the players.  Brandin Cooks should continue garnering a boatload of targets and Tyrod Taylor has superflex streaming appeal for Houston.

Rushing Offenses

We should note running back fantasy production, in particular, is massively volume –driven and efficiency only plays a minor part.  That means game script and roles mean a lot more than the quality of run defenses faced.

The Denver Broncos play a host of games down the stretch against defenses susceptible to the run and prefer a run-heavy approach instead of Teddy Bridgewater leading the way.  Melvin Gordon and rookie Javonte Williams have both shown well this season with a near 50-50 split in touches but it is the rookie shining, breaking tackles at a ridiculous pace.  The real question is if they are able to maintain the run-script playing the likes of Los Angeles, Kansas City, and Arizona.  Either way, big games are possible for each against these poor rushing defenses. Gordon or Williams instantly becomes an RB1 if the other is injured or other-wise unable to go at some point down the stretch.

Chicago similarly has an outstanding schedule for running backs with games against each of the NFC North teams and the Giants in week 17.  The switch to Justin Fields may help the rushing game as mobile quarterbacks have been shown to increase the output of running backs.  David Montgomery could play a big role over the next two months for fantasy players.


Bio:  Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

More Analysis by Bernard Faller