Redrafting the 2016 Rookie Draft
As we’re about a quarter of the way into the 2016 season, plenty has changed since our rookie drafts this past summer. Values have changed, injuries have occurred, and roles have been more clearly defined. In hindsight there are many picks that we’re all proud of, but also some that we’re ashamed to look back on. In this piece, I’m going to redraft the first round of a 2016 Rookie Draft assuming that it took place today.
#1.01 Ezekiel Elliott – RB DAL
2016: 94 car – 412 yards – 3TDs; 6 rec – 44 yards
Analysis: The consensus 1.01 pick throughout the off-season, Elliott has largely delivered on the months of hype that surrounded him. He’s produced as the number one running back in Dallas, though he has been unluckily vultured at the goal-line a few times. He’s been less involved in the passing game than I anticipated, but I expect his usage to improve over the next few years.
#1.02 Corey Coleman – WR CLE
2016: 7 rec – 173 yards – 2TDs
Analysis: Coleman, my choice for the 1.02 pick in the off-season, has flashed his immense potential in limited opportunities this season. The Cleveland offense, headed by Hue Jackson, may no longer be a fantasy wasteland as Isaiah Crowell, Terrelle Pyror, and Corey Coleman have emerged this season as viable fantasy options. Missing 4-to-6 weeks with a broken hand is unfortunate, but it doesn’t impact my long-term projection of Coleman.
#1.03 Will Fuller – WR HOU
2016: 19 rec – 323 – 2TDs
Analysis: I’m not afraid to admit that I was dead wrong about Will Fuller. I had him outside of my top 10 and didn’t believe he would be nearly as versatile as he’s proved to be. Not only a deep threat, Fuller is a weapon in all areas of the field. His success is currently being limited by poor QB, but the sky’s the limit if Brock Osweiler improves.
#1.04 Sterling Shepard – WR NYG
2016: 20 rec – 263 – 2TDs
Analysis: Of all the 2016 rookies, I have the most shares of Sterling Shepard. A very polished route runner, I expected Shepard to immediately make an impact especially in PPR leagues. He has not disappointed and appears on a trajectory towards WR2 status for much of his career.
#1.05 Michael Thomas – WR NO
2016: 21 rec – 229 yards – 2TDs
Analysis: Through 4 games, the 6’3″ sure-handed possession receiver has performed well as many expected. His quick emergence, as a WR3/WR4 in 2016, make him an excellent value on a 3 or 4 year RSO rookie contract.
#1.06 Derrick Henry – RB TEN
2016: 27 car – 97 yards; 3 rec – 50 yards
Analysis: After a very impressive preseason, I expected that Derrick Henry would be much more involved in the Tennessee offense than he’s been through four games. Instead, DeMarco Murray has been a true workhouse, leaving little work for the rookie Henry. In a year or two, Henry should take over the starting job in Tennessee and immediately join the RB1 conversation. A true physical specimen with a unique combination of size and speed, Henry is one of the most athletically gifted RB prospects we’ve seen in quite some time. This preseason, he even showed promise catching the ball out of the backfield. If the Henry owner in your league is growing impatient, now’s the time to buy.
#1.07 Laquon Treadwell – WR MIN
2016: n/a
Analysis: Treadwell was widely considered the consensus 1.02 or 1.03 pick in all rookie drafts, but his value has dropped in the first month of the season. He’s been a healthy inactive in several games and has seen very few snaps when he’s actually been active. While the Vikings may want to bring their rookie along slowly, it’s very concerning that he can’t beat out Charles Johnson, Adam Thielen, Jarius Wright, and Cordarrelle Patterson for WR reps. I’m still a believer in his talent, but red flags have been raised.
#1.08 Kenneth Dixon – RB BAL
2016: n/a
Analysis: Dixon’s expected debut in Week 5 has generated a great deal of buzz in the fantasy community as many expect him to quickly overtake Terrance West. As a prospect at the draft, I was very high on Kenneth Dixon…love his speed, athleticism, and pass catching abilities. The knee injury delayed his NFL debut and briefly suppressed his value, but that has now risen likely greater than it was in April and May.
#1.09 Josh Doctson – WR WAS
2016: 2 rec – 66 yards
Analysis: 2016 may end as a lost season for Josh Doctson, but all hope is not lost. Assuming he enters the 2017 season healthy, he will have a great opportunity to earn a significant target share in Washington. DeSean Jackson and Pierre Garcon are both free agents after 2016 and it seems unlikely both will return.
#1.10 Jordan Howard – RB CHI
2016: 35 car – 178 yards; 9 rec – 77 yards
Analysis: The most interesting aspect of Jordan Howard’s impressive start as a rookie is his usage in the passing game. Largely considered a 2-down back after catching a total of 24 passes in 32 collegiate games, Howard seemed to lack the upside of more versatile backs but clearly that isn’t the case.
#1.11 DeAndre Washington – RB OAK
2016: 23 car – 147 yards; 6 rec – 37 yards
Analysis: Throughout the off-season we kept hearing that the Raiders weren’t 100% sold on Latavius Murray as their workhorse back. DeAndre Washington became a fantasy sleeper soon after the NFL draft. Though only 5’8”, Washington is a physical back that can run between the tackles, make a defender miss in space, and is adequate catching the ball out of the backfield. He may be part of a committee in Oakland long-term, but committees are the new norm in the NFL. Washington is clearly a talent that runs behind one of the best offensive lines in football.
#1.12 Hunter Henry – TE SD
2016: 10 rec – 153 yards – TD
Analysis: Hunter Henry looks like he may turn into what the fantasy community had hoped Ladarius Green would be. Henry has produced in Antonio Gates‘ absence and has become a reliable target for QB Philip Rivers.
Just missed the first round:
Wendell Smallwood – RB PHI
Carson Wentz – QB PHI
Tajae Sharpe – WR TEN
Tyler Boyd – WR CIN
Braxton Miller – WR HOU
Devontae Booker – RB DEN
Malcolm Mitchell – WR NE
CJ Prosise – RB SEA
Paul Perkins – RB NYG
Dwayne Washington – RB DET
Let me know which of your rookie picks you’re most proud of – on Twitter @DaveSanders_RSO!
Bio: An avid fan of all things NFL, Dave has been playing fantasy football since 1999. Though Dave participates in all types of fantasy football including redraft and daily, he prefers keeper and dynasty leagues as talent evaluation and scouting are integral components of each. Follow him on Twitter @DaveSanders_RSO
