IDP Start/Sit: Week 14

Updated: December 6th 2023

This is it. This is our last push for the playoffs (hopefully you wonderful readers have already locked that up though!). But just in case you need a little help finding some decisions or considerations for your lineups this week, let’s dive into my thoughts for week 14.

Week 13 Recap

DL:

Start: Osa Odighizuwa (3 solos, 3 assists,Qb hit, TFL) 👍

Sit: Denico Autry (3 solos, 1assist, 1 sack, QB hit, FF, PD) 👎

LB:

Start: Jack Campbell (4 solos, 5 assists, 2 TFLs) 👍 – Only on 79% snaps, efficient, talent, but not locked in

Sit: Markquese Bell (4 solos, 4 assists) 👎

DB:

Start: Jordan Battle (4 solos, 3 assists, TFL, 1 sack, QB hit, PD) 👍

Sit: Richie Grant (1 solo, 1 assist, 1 sack, 1 FF) 👎 – Big play made the day for him this week

Week 14 Starts & Sits

START: Samson Ebukam, Indianapolis Colts, DL38 (ED31)

7-5 for the Colts is a bit of a surprise with some of the injuries that they have had to overcome. What has been a contributing factor to these surprising results? The play of that defensive front is a big part of this. DeForest Buckner and Kwity Paye for sure, but Samson Ebukam has been very good for this front. But especially good over his last 3 games. 4 sacks, but has a 16.45% pressure rate, which is 6 points higher than his 10.14% pressure rate for the entire season. Enter the Cincinnati Bengals with a 27% pressure rate allowed this season as well as a 15% sack conversion rate on those pressures. Pair that with the Bengals seemingly more willing to utilize their passing attack with backup Jake Browning under center, this should set up for a favorable matchup and a good volume of opportunities for Ebukam.

SIT: Chase Young, San Francisco 49ers, DL20 (ED18)

It seems like nothing can stop the San Francisco 49ers recently. While the offense looks great, the defense is doing its part, too. And the addition of Chase Young was a very solid move for this team. However, in his 4 games with the 49ers, it has been feast or famine. 2 sacks and 1 tackle are his 4 games total. His 14.19% pressure rate over the time would leave us to believe he is an ideal play against the Seahawks this week and their usually favorable matchup. However, last week they showed a changeup in their offense to mitigate a strong Cowboys pass rush. They went to a very quick passing attack with Geno Smith’s time to throw of 2.31 seconds, which was way down from his season average of 2.76 (which includes this most recent game). The offense was successful, they didn’t surrender a sack, and this doesn’t look great for the 49ers pass-rush. Especially Chase Young, who doesn’t seem to have a tackle floor either.

START: Mykal Walker, Pittsburgh Steelers, LB27

Mykal Walker has been a member of the Pittsburgh Steelers for three whole weeks now. And due to some unfortunate health in the linebacker room, Walker has seen his role continue to increase, as well. Elandon Robert’s most recent groin injury is just the latest news in this ongoing saga. With his increased time in Pittsburgh, we have seen his production rise each week as well (from 3 tackles to 5 to 11 this last week). While his overall numbers are average in terms of efficiency, he is getting a very favorable matchup for LB tackle production in the New England Patriots. Their offensive situation over the last 3 games has netted an average of 20 tackles to the LB position for the Patriots’ opponents. This should be an ideal game for Mykal Walker to deliver above-average efficiency and increased volume due to the injuries, which will lead to a very good week for Mykal.

SIT: Nicholas Morrow, Philadelphia Eagles, LB30

Nicholas Morrow has been involved in another linebacker room that has dealt with a litany of injuries this season. It has even seen Morrow go from a starter to a backup role, and back to the starter again. While no one will argue Morrow’s ability to be on the field, align a defense, and play his role, his IDP production has been one of mediocre value at times throughout his career. This season has shown to be similar with a 9.61% tackle efficiency, almost 4 points lower than the league average and closer to safety tackle efficiency. With a crucial week 14 matchup against their division rivals, the Dallas Cowboys, there is little concern as the last 3 weeks, the Cowboys’ opponents have only seen 15.3 tackles for the LB position. The inefficient play, combined with the less-than-favorable matchup, means Morrow is a fade for me.

START: Kyle Hamilton, Baltimore Ravens, DB34 (S26)

Kyle Hamilton has seen his IDP production shift a bit this year, as well as his alignment and utilization. Primarily deep safety, slot role, box safety, deep, and back to slot defender. And this has been his primary role now for the last three weeks taking over 40 snaps a week there. While his tackle production has been average at just under 5 a game during this period (that’s with a 1 tackle performance), we have seen him generate 5 pressures, 4 hurries, and a QB hit. He also has 2 PD’s to boot. The Rams matchup this week is less favorable for safeties overall in terms of tackle production, but Hamilton is more of a slot defender or box safety, which aren’t like your traditional safeties. Hamilton has shown a respectable tackle floor but his big-play upside is a great reason for him to deliver this week against the Los Angeles Rams.

SIT: Jalen Pitre, Houston Texans, DB36 (S28)

Jalen Pitre is less than 1 season removed from an outstanding 144-tackle performance. This season has seen him regress to the mean as he is on a 93-tackle pace over a 17-game span. His alignment this year is a bit down from last year as well with 43% of his snaps coming from the sweet spot. Even with his reduction in production, and shifted utilization, Pitre is still a relatively consistent IDP performer. What makes him less-than-ideal this week, is the matchup against the New York Jets. The Jets are providing league-low tackles to their opponents’ safeties at 9.6 per game, with the last 3 games averaging 6.0. That is an extremely small pie to divide up among others, let alone one’s self. Pitre is a pass for me in week 14

 

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More Analysis by Jake

IDP Start/Sit: Week 3

Updated: September 24th 2022

Welcome to week 3! Another fun week of fantasy football, but more fun if you are living that IDP fantasy life! One more week of data, a week to help establish real/true trends, and more film to interpret for our next set of decisions. As always, a reminder of what this article is here for,is to help you identify those truly start-worthy players who might be more on the fringe of the 2nd or 3rd or even 4th tier of their IDP position groups (based on FantasyPros weekly rankings) but have the right situation to be a start-able asset for each given week (or maybe more!). The layout of this series will focus on DL, LB, and DB position groups, however, I will try to get some nuggets in there for those “True Position” leagues that get down with DT and CB requirements. Additionally, where I can find the long-term value, we will also call that out to help you with some of that season-long planning.

As a quick refresher too, here were week two’s recommendations and how the “advice” went. Happy with my all sits, the Titans defense disappointed for me this week. Expected greater work from the key players in that front 7.
DL:
Start: Jeffery Simmons (1 PD)


Sit: Khalil Mack (.5 sack, 1 solo, 1 assist)


LB:

Start: David Long Jr. (1 solo, 1 assist)

Sit (Sell): Kamu Grugier-Hill (3 solo, 2 assist)

 

DB:
Start: Kyler Gordon (3 solos, 3 assist, 1 PD)

Sit: Jevon Holland (2 solos, 8 return yards)

 

START: Chris Jones, Kansas City Chiefs, DL33

The new look Kansas City Chiefs are looking strong at 2-0 and a large part of this is thanks to the play of their defense as well. And at the core of the front 7 is Chris Jones, delivering strong performances for his team and for IDP fantasy. As such, he is a strong value start at DL33 from Fantasy Pros IDP week 3 rankings. He is checking those preliminary boxes for us in utilization (70%+ snap count through 2 weeks) and showing a top-end PFF pass-rush grade of 90+ as well.

What does this mean for week 3’s matchup? The Chiefs travel to Indianapolis and they struggled against a decent unit last week in the Jaguars and the Colts defense has looked weak so far this year and the Chiefs offense could turn this into a negative game script very quickly. Which means this front 7 can really pin its ears back and get after a very immobile Matt Ryan. Pair this with a Colts offensive line that has been bottom half of the league so far this year with Jones’ 17% pressure rate, we have a very strong path for Jones to continue adding pressure and likely converting a sack or two!

Jones is an easy DL2 this week and a must start in DT required leagues.

SIT: Marcus Davenport, New Orleans Saints, DL23

Marcus Davenport came on strong at the end of 2021 and was really starting to get people to believe in his 1st round draft capital and what he could be for the Saints as a premier edge rusher as Cameron Jordan is reaching the end of his career. However, his start to this season has been rather pedestrian, at best. Davenport has had slightly above average snap counts at around 60% of his snaps but he has delivered little excitement in the pass-rush department with a 6% pressure rate! He would need to be converting almost every pressure at that rate to be delivering consistent IDP value.

With a rough start, week 3 brings in the Carolina Panthers and some would say this would be the salve to what ails Davenport. However, I am predicting a shift in the Panthers focus and getting CMC more involved as he has shown the ability to be involved and gain further confidence in his ability to stay on the field. Along with the fact that many believe Matt Rhule is playing for his job at this point, and CMC sounds like a better bet than Baker Mayfield, in one man’s humble opinion. And if this is the case, Davenport has struggled to deliver in the run game as well this year, leading to just an overall disappointing IDP week.

START: Fred Warner, San Francisco 49ers, LB23

Fred Warner has been an IDP stalwart for the last 4 seasons since coming into the league. Now, after two slow weeks to start his 2022 campaign, consensus ranks has him at LB23 this week! The 49ers have run a crazy low number of plays on defense at 53.5 per game over the last two weeks. Those are numbers that just aren’t realistic to last over the entirety of the season. On a 17 game pace, that would leave him almost 100 snaps lower than some of his 16 game seasons in terms of total snaps played. He has had some below average tackle efficiency which can be expected to happen at times, so some positive regression there, with increased overall snaps means stronger numbers are very likely in the future for Warner.

The Broncos have average around 65 snaps per game as an offense as well, so this should be a return to the norm for the 49ers defense and Warner is an asset who has proven year in and year out that he can deliver, just look at this IDP resume:

  • 79+ solo tackles every year
  • 115+ total tackles every year
  • 22+ TFLs over the last 4 years
  • 12 combined FF/FR over the last 4 years

All this to say, if anyone is out on Warner, buy the dip and ride the wave of success that should follow shortly after.

SIT: Jerome Baker, Miami Dolphins, LB27

Jerome Baker is getting full 100% snap count which is not always easy to find with any LB, so if he is getting that kind of usage, why would we want to be looking at sitting him them? Alignment. Week 1 he spent about 17% of his snaps on the defensive line rushing the passer and in week 2, that jumped way up to 53%. This utilization is a scary trend for Baker and if it continues or stays anywhere near that 50%. This has already shown up in his first two weeks performance with 7 total tackles between both and also only delivered 1 total pressure with all these pass rush attempts. This is a very-low 6% pressure rate and he hasn’t converted anything into further IDP production either.

Now for week 3, we see the Dolphins take on the Buffalo Bills and this is not the team a pass rushing LB is going to right their ship. Baker might correct course here soon, but this week is not the one to do. With only 3 sacks allowed in the first two games, that is a big ask for Baker to be the one to come up with it with previous lack of success.

START: Terrell Edmunds, Pittsburgh Steelers, DB34

Terrell Edmunds is easily overshadowed by the other safety in Pittsburgh in Minkah Fitzpatrick. Minkah is out there breaking all logic in how deep safeties have historically produced IDP with crazy tackle numbers giving safe weekly floors with high-level play-making that delivers week winning performances. While all this is happening, Edmunds is quietly delivering success while getting the ideal utilization for a safety. He has gotten 100% of the defensive snaps while also playing 58% of his snaps inside the sweet spot!!!

With a tough divisional matchup in the Cleveland Browns which have been low-scoring games, and you have seen Cleveland continue to rely on their running game. With that consideration, these sweet spot snaps will become even more valuable. Edmunds is a strong DB2 this week and might be a candidate to watch for season-long  value as well.

SIT: Jonathan Owners, Houston Texans, DB26

Jonathan Owners has been a pleasant surprise to start this season. However, I am guessing most people have not played him much this season unless in a super deep league. He has put up an astounding 25 tackles through the first two games as well as a pass defensed. This is super impressive and why wouldn’t we want this in our lineup?!? Because he has played a ludicrous 81 snaps per game so far this year! OK, well, the Texans defense stinks, right? So they will keep getting more snaps, right? Enter the Chicago Bears. They have thrown 28 passes through 2 games this year and run the 2nd least amount of plays in 97 total plays.

Something has to give in this situation, and Jonathan Owens has played solidly with PFF grades around 63 for the season, but if I had to pick a side, I would lean away from the lack of previous production from Owens and the inflated opportunities about to come crashing back down this week against the Bears.

More Analysis by Jake

Week 1: React to Overreact

Updated: September 14th 2016

What an exciting first week of football! There were a lot of surprises, both good and bad, in the fantasy community that have owners either patting themselves on the back or pulling out their hair. Tuesday after week 1 is one of the largest scrambles for the waiver wire in the year so I wanted to go over a collection of players that I felt needed to be talked about. Note that this is just the first week of the season and you shouldn’t be basing all your hard offseason work off of 60 minutes worth of football. Instead, evaluate your own team and its performance and be prepared to throw around some serious dollars. Let us begin.

Keenan Allen, WR, San Diego Chargers

Keenan AllenWhat a buzzkill this was. After an entire offseason that led many to believe Allen would return healthy and back to his WR1 form his knee gives out. Ending his season before the second half of game one, Allen owners are now left holding the bag with a big hole in their fantasy line-ups. It will be tough to say who on a game to game basis will immediately benefit from his absence. Danny Woodhead seems to have held off the doubters based on his performance and, along with Antonio Gates and Travis Benjamin, will have the first opportunities to increase their targets. Undrafted rookie Tyrell Williams looked good in the preseason and had two catches for 71 yards after Allen went out. With the other three likely being owned already Williams would likely be your immediate replace for Allen owners. Just don’t expect to see consistent fantasy results on a week to week basis.

Spencer Ware/Jamaal Charles, RB, Kansas City Chiefs

Talk about feeding off of other’s misery. For Charles owners who were unable to handcuff Ware in the offseason, they were shedding tears at the near 200 total yard performance that he was able to put up in a thrilling come from behind win. Word is spreading that Charles may also be sitting a second week which leaves Ware owners foaming at the mouth. While there’s not much Charles owners can do at this point other than wait and see, it’s not time to panic just yet. Too often coaches ask players to come back before they are ready (i.e. Lynch, Dez, Romo, John Brown.) This just hurts the player’s value more by starting and subsequently leaving games early. Hopefully, Andy Reid is taking it slow with his star running back and he will be 100% healthy soon. When he does return though, it would be a surprise if he took the lion’s share back after Sunday’s performance by Ware.

Sammy Watkins, WR, Buffalo Bills

Sammy WatkinsSpeaking of letting injuries heal, reports are surfacing that Sammy Watkins is still feeling pain in his surgically repaired foot which could be affecting his performance. It was suggested that the team could be shutting him down for a significant amount of time but those reports were quickly shot down and he is said to be ready to play on Thursday night. Still, we have seen what a receiver trying to play through a foot injury looks like, Dez in 2015 and A.J. Green in 2014, with unimpressive results. If Robert Woods isn’t already owned in your league I would definitely be picking him up and stashing him. Either way, it is hard to own Watkins at this point as he could be a major dud due a lackluster passing game and now his lingering injury. If you can move him for any other WR2 or a 2017 1st and a replacement receiver I would be getting out now.

Tevin Coleman/Devonta Freeman, RB, Atlanta Falcons

Tevin ColemanThis was an interesting turn of events with Coleman looking more efficient with his 32 snaps (117 total yards) than Freeman’s (40 yards) on 36 snaps. Dan Quinn has stated that he will continue to use the committee approach making all those who spent big offseason dollars acquiring Freeman very nervous. Even more nerve-racking was how efficient Coleman was in a receiving role (95 yards) which was assumed to Freeman’s role. After being a fantasy beast early last season Freeman’s big knock was his inefficiencies without volume down the stretch. With a healthy Coleman (who remember was handpicked by this coaching staff in last year’s draft) this could be an early candidate for the one year wonder RB.

Los Angeles Rams vs. San Francisco 49ers

Jeff Fisher*Cricket… Cricket…* that’s the sound of the second Monday night game as the Rams looked awful; being shut out by a team that many expected to win less than five games this season. While the Rams may not offer much in terms of startable fantasy players (except Gurley), you would like to see them put up at least something to build off of. Touted as the best prospect since Adrian Peterson, Gurley seems to have the same trajectory of having to play on a bad offense that doesn’t scare the defense from stacking the box unforgivingly. You can’t help but wonder how successfully he would be if he didn’t have Jeff Fisher holding him back.

As for San Francisco call me a doubter but I have seen this narrative play out before; in last year’s opening Monday night game in fact. The 49ers held Peterson and Vikings in check and started the season 1-0 only to win four of their next fifteen games. It was nice to see Hyde play well and score two touchdowns but it will take a few more games before I see anything on this offseason as a consistent fantasy play.

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

Cap Analysis: 49ers

Updated: February 23rd 2016

San Francisco 49ers

Trending: Slightly Up ↑

The Jim Tomsula era will be remembered for awkward interviews, a string of unfortunate retirements, and the benching of Colin Kaepernick…if it’s remembered at all. Despite a very fast, very public, fall from grace in Philadelphia, I believe Chip Kelly can succeed as a head coach in the NFL. The roster does not have the same talent that it had two years ago, but it’s not totally barren either. The 49ers have to compete in what should be one of the better divisions in football again in 2016, but they can use the year to rebuild and figure out if the quarterback of the future is on their roster.

Projected 2016 Team Salary$109.3M (not including escalators and NLTBE* incentives)
*Not Likely To Be Earned

Projected 2016 Cap Room: ~$57.0M (~$154M Estimate; ~$12.2M Rollover)

Situation: Strong 

The 49ers have a ton of cap space at their disposal, and only a few starters reaching free agency. It will be interesting to see the magnitude of Chip Kelly’s impact on the team’s transactions in March.

Notable Free Agents:

SF Free Agents

Ian Williams isn’t the most well-known name on this list, but he’s the most important. Williams has started 25 games at Nose Tackle over the last two seasons, and had a very strong season in 2015. Anquan Boldin, who has amassed the 12th most receptions in NFL history over the last 13 years, seems unlikely to return to the team. Alex Boone has spent his entire career with the team, and has been a starter for the last four seasons. Reggie Bush had only 12 touches when his season ended with a knee injury. Bush would be intriguing in Chip Kelly’s offense, so there’s a chance the team will re-sign him.

Top Projected Cap Hits:

SF Top Proj Cap Hits

Colin Kaepernick is scheduled to be the team’s highest paid player, but it’s far from a certainty he’ll remain on the roster. Ahmad Brooks is one of nine players in the NFL who has produced at least 5 sacks in each of the last seven seasons. Torrey Smith had his worst season as a professional after signing a 5-year, $40M contract in free agency.

Cap Casualty Watch List:

SF Cap Cas

Most of these players are likely to return, but with a new head coach, any veteran that represents a significant savings is at risk. Colin Kaepernick was benched in favor of Blaine Gabbert after 8 games, and was eventually placed on injured reserve. Kaepernick reportedly wants out of San Francisco, even though he’s scheduled to earn more with San Fran than he could make on the open market, and even though he would fit better in Chip Kelly’s offense than most of the alternatives. His base salary becomes fully guaranteed on April 1, so the team will have to make a decision on Kaep before the draft. Additionally, Bruce Miller will likely not have a place in Chip Kelly’s offense.

Extension Watch List: 

SF Ext Watch List

The 49ers will exercise Eric Reid’s fifth year option, pushing his expected free agency to March, 2018. Blaine Gabbert finished 2015 with eight starts, just over 2,000 yards, 10 touchdowns, seven interceptions, and an 86.2 passer rating. He’s only 26 years old, and could very well end up the 49ers starter. The $2M he’ll earn this year makes him the 34th highest paid quarterback in the league at the moment. And, that doesn’t include the contracts Sam Bradford and Ryan Fitzpatrick will sign in the next few weeks. Neither he nor the team are likely to talk extension until mid-season, when it becomes clear if he’s the starter of the future, the backup of the future, or none of the above. There’s a thin line between unestablished starter contracts (Brian Hoyer, $5.25M; Josh McCown, $4.67M) and highly paid backups (Mark Sanchez, $4.5M; Shaun Hill, $3.25M). Even if Gabbert doesn’t start for the 49ers in 2016, he should still be due for a raise whether it’s in San Francisco or elsewhere.

Position Needs: 

Offensive Line, Tight End, Wide Receiver, and Corner.

Sleeper Watch: 

I think Chip could have success with either Colin Kaepernick or Blaine Gabbert, so long as he’s willing to tailor his offense to the strengths of the chosen starter, and upgrades the receiving options.


Matt Papson (@RealitySportsMP) formerly worked in football administration for the Philadelphia Eagles. He is the President, co-founder and creator of Reality Sports Online, a fantasy front office platform that enables fantasy owners to build and manage their fantasy team like a professional sports general manager. The Reality Sports Online platform has been featured in Fortune, on Bloomberg TV, and was the 2012 Fantasy Sports Trade Association Rookie of the Year.

Sources: Spotrac, Pro-Football Reference, and Rotoworld

More Analysis by Matt Papson