Updated 2018 Positional Rookie Rankings

Updated: March 15th 2018

Back in November, I released the first draft of my 2018 positional rookie rankings. Today, I will revisit the rankings and go deeper than before (TWSS?). Before we get started, please remember that we are still early in the draft process. All of these players just completed the combine and as of this writing, none have yet had a pro day or an individual workout. We’ll likely learn more about some prospects before this article even gets published; we’ll surely know a lot more a month from now. As in November, I did struggle at times as to whether the rankings should be based on my perceived fantasy value or in what order I believe players will be drafted. Ultimately, I am ranking based more so on expected fantasy value than predicted draft order but the two are highly correlated. I’ll post separate fantasy and NFL mock drafts in April so you’ll be able to see where the two values diverge. I have included brief notes on interesting players for each position and designated tiers. For more detailed analysis follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper and check out my “RSO Rookie Rundown” series.

Note: this was written prior to the retirement of Adam Breneman.

Quarterbacks

My quarterback rankings are likely more controversial than my rankings at other positions. I truly believe that Josh Rosen is the most NFL-ready of the top prospects and as such I still rank him first. I don’t think he will be drafted first at that position but honestly that might do more to help his fantasy stock than hurt it. I have been low on Sam Darnold and Josh Allen since October so their rankings should come as no surprise. The more I watch and read about Lamar Jackson, the more impressed I am with him as a quarterback; don’t believe the WR narrative. I am much higher on Mason Rudolph than many analysts. He may be a little stiff but he was highly productive, excelled in some advanced metrics and was a quiet leader in Stillwater. I think Rudolph will get drafted by a team who benches him for Year One only to give him the keys to the car to start Year Two (i.e. Pat Mahomes). Luke Falk and Mike White find themselves ahead of the next tier due to their elite size and above average production. Of the rest, my picks for guys who may move up the rankings are JT Barrett and Chase Litton. Barrett was a proven winner at one of the nation’s best programs so I won’t count him out yet. Litton threw too many interceptions in college but is one of the biggest quarterbacks in the class and as such will get a shot somewhere.

Running Backs

No change at the top for me. It’s Barkley well above Guice and Chubb. Jones, Penny and Michel are the next tier and are all very close. I have not elevated Sony Michel as high as some others because I am wary of the recency effect. Michel was in the RB5-10 range all season and one great game against Oklahoma shouldn’t really change that. All of the things we “learned” against Oklahoma were already baked into Michel’s ranking. We knew he could catch the ball, we knew he was explosive, we knew he didn’t need 20 carries to make a difference, etc. To bump him higher based off that one game is essentially a double counting accounting error. Freeman (early in the season), Balage (at the combine) and Johnson (late in the season) are an interesting tier as they all flashed at different times. I’m intrigued by Balage and his combination of size and athleticism; I want to study him more and could slide him up into the third tier. Two big names that have slid down the rankings are Josh Adams and Bo Scarborough. Both concern me because of their size: running backs as tall as they are just don’t often succeed in the NFL (which is also a concern for Balage). There are three FCS prospects on the list (Martez Carter, Chase Edmonds, Roc Thomas). My favorite of that group is Martez Carter. He is short and stout and is a dynamic pass catcher. Edmonds showed out at the combine and will likely move up NFL Draft boards. I’m not a fan of John Kelly because he has a lack of production, size and speed that worries me even though he’s starting to get some buzz. If I had to pick one mid- to late-round pick that will have the biggest immediate impact in the NFL, it might be Ito Smith. Smith was a very good blocker according to PFF’s metrics and is a fantastic receiver (40+ catches each of the last three seasons).

Wide Receivers

I have had Calvin Ridley as my WR1 since the start of the year and I have not been discouraged by the mediocre stats or his middling combine performance. I still believe in Ridley’s raw ability and think that he’s the best of this class. Unlike last year, this class lacks a Top 10 talent so Ridley may be artificially moved up draft boards simply because he may be the best at a position of need. Many other analysts have either Washington or Sutton at WR1 and I can’t really argue with that. They both out-produced Ridley over their careers and each have their own athletic attributes. Ironically, both Washington and Sutton are the only two to have a teammate also make this list so maybe I’m undervaluing just how dominant they could have been on another team. I love all of the guys in my second tier and I don’t think NFL teams will go wrong with any of them. If I was an NFL GM I would probably pass on Ridley in the first and instead grab one of Miller, Moore, Kirk or Gallup in the second. All four have a similar profile: they are versatile, quick and can make spectacular catches. Auden Tate is a big, pun intended, wildcard for me because his sample size is so small (just 65 career catches). However, he has the size and body control to be a true X receiver in the league. Dante Pettis is being too undervalued right now in my opinion. Many analysts seem to have forgotten all about him. He was a four year contributor on a championship contending team. He’ll get on the field early with his punt return and run after catch ability, maybe like how Tyreek Hill started his career, and could be a late round steal in fantasy drafts. Allen Lazard has fallen far down my rankings, mostly because he just failed to impress me at points this past season. There is talk of him moving to TE which would do wonders for his fantasy value. There are three guys in the bottom tiers who are more talented than their rankings: Cain and Callaway (off the field issues) and James (injury). I ended up watching a number of Syracuse games this year and became a fan of Steve Ishmael. He had a fantastic 105-1,347-7 line while playing for a bad Orange team. He has good size and made a number of big-time catches in the games I watched him play against Florida State and Clemson.

Tight Ends

The consensus opinion currently states that Mark Andrews is the best player at the position but I strongly disagree. I did not see enough out of Andrews for me to think he could be a starting NFL tight end. I would feel much more confident drafting one of the other top four for my squad. Goedert is the most well rounded player in the group and he’s such a likable person to boot. Gesicki and Hurst are right with Goedert. Gesicki is an incredible athlete but has a wrap for being a poor blocker. Hurst is underrated because he doesn’t score much (just 3 career TDs) but catches a lot of balls and can block better than most in the class. Adam Breneman has serious injury concerns which drags down his potential – if it weren’t for his history of knee injuries he could be atop this group (Editor’s Note: Breneman has since retired from football). Tight end was a difficult position to rank for me because there were few prospects I had a great feel for. Admittedly, everybody past Troy Fumagalli is a dart throw. Chances are that your fantasy league won’t need to draft the position deeper than that but if you do, I provided a bunch of names of guys to keep on your radar. I prioritized players with either great size or great production – very few had both – and left off some players who might be selected in the NFL Draft but likely have no shot at factoring in fantasy-wise. If you have to go deeper, take the guy who gets drafted highest, regardless of where he ended up in my ranking because there’s so little between TE7 and TE13. The two at the bottom, Yurachek and Akins, are truly deep sleepers. Both are undersized, “move” tight ends who could see a hybrid TE/WR role in the NFL. Teams may be less hesitant to draft somebody of their size and speed after the success of Evan Engram in 2017.


Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
  • Film: 2018 NFL Draft Database by @CalhounLambeau, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, ndtscouting.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

RSO Rookie Rundown: 2018 TEs, Part I

Updated: February 11th 2018

Welcome to the RSO Rookie Rundown, a resource to help RSO owners prepare for their upcoming rookie drafts. For more college football and NFL Draft coverage, follow me on Twitter at @robertfcowper. Throughout the offseason, the RSO Rookie Rundown will delve into dozens of future rookies for your consideration. Each prospect will be evaluated on a number of criteria including size, production, performance, character and durability. This is an inexact science but the goal is to gain a better perspective of each player through research. Each player will be given a draft round grade as well as a recent NFL player comparison. For draft round grades, it’s important to remember that some positions are valued more highly than others in the NFL. For player comparisons, it’s important to remember that it is a rough heuristic for illustrative purposes and is based on a physical and statistical basis rather than a prediction of a similar NFL career.

Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State

Dallas Goedert is an FCS star who deserves your attention.  Goedert was not even on my radar when I started researching the 2017 season but an RSO reader suggested I look him up and since then I have had Goedert as a top player at the position.  Goedert was selected for the Senior Bowl but ultimately had to pull out due to a hamstring injury.  Luckily he was still able to weigh-in so we could get a firm handle on his height and weight.  Goedert came in at 6044 (a handy shorthand that says he is 6 feet, 04 inches and 4/8) and 260lbs which was just about what we expected.  I will be very interested in seeing how Goedert runs at the combine.  NFLDraftScout.com predicts he’ll run about 4.81, whereas a Sports Illustrated profile from the preseason gave him 4.65 speed.  That’s a huge gap (think Julius Thomas vs Kyle Rudolph).  Unfortunately, the hamstring wasn’t Goedert’s first injury of the season.  He left SDSU’s quarterfinal matchup against New Hampshire early with an ankle injury; the injury subsequently kept him out of the semi-final against James Madison.  Goedert played in each game in 2015 and 2016 so I’m not that concerned that this is part of a bigger pattern (he was redshirted in 2013 and a limited contributor in 2014).  Goedert does not have any character concerns that I came across during my research.  To the contrary, he seems like a fun, quirky kid that fans will fall in love with.  My research of Goedert provided the most unexpected article from AOL titled “A Walk-On Unicyclist from South Dakota Might be the NFL Draft’s Top Tight End Prospect.”  The article did not skimp on unicycling details and actually included a snapshot from the local paper showing Goedert atop a six-foot high unicycle.  Awesome.  Let’s hope he gets drafted by the team featured on Hard Knocks so we can see him in the rookie talent show!

Stats & Accolades:  As an FCS player, there are few “advanced” stats out there for Goedert.  Good thing he dominated so much the last two seasons that we don’t need the advanced stats to tell us how good Goedert is.  2016 was his high water mark with a 92-1,293-11 campaign.  His counting stats decreased in 2017 but his rate stat of yards per reception did increase (15.4 in 2017 vs 14.1 in 2016).  I expect the decrease in 2017 was likely due to the fact that MVC defenses had more time to watch film of Goedert and to gameplan against him.  Goedert has five games in his career with 10+ receptions.  To give you a feel for how dominant that is, let’s compare to other top TE prospects in this class.  Mark Andrews, Mike Gesicki, Hayden Hurst and Troy Fumagalli all have zero such games.  Adam Breneman, featured below, is the only other top prospect with any 10+ games and he has just two.  Casual fans may interject and say, “Bob, surely he dominated because he was by far the best receiver on his team.”  I would point out that Goedert was sharing the targets with four-year standout WR Jake Wieneke who averaged nearly 1,300 yards and 15 TDs per season.  An easy knock against Goedert (and Wieneke) will be the quality of opponent.  To get a feel for how Goedert did in his team’s biggest games, I looked at a set of six games.  The first was his only game against a Power 5 opponent, TCU in 2016.  In that game he had a 5-96-1 line.  The other five games all were against North Dakota State.  I chose to concentrate on this subset of his game logs because NDSU was by far the most dominant team in the FCS in recent history (they won six of seven championships).  In those five games against championship level teams, Goedert totaled 29 receptions for 389 yards and 3 TDs.  On average, that would be 5.8 receptions, 77.8 yards and .6 TDs.  That’s a stat line that fantasy owners would kill for from the TE position on a regular basis.

Goedert was named to the Missouri Valley Conference First Team for three straight seasons from 2015-2017.  He was also named, unanimously, to back-to-back FCS All-American teams in 2016 and 2017.  He was also a Walter Payton Award (i.e. the FCS Heisman) finalist both seasons.  He has quite a list of accomplishments and I am looking forward to seeing him ply his trade at the next level.

Year Games Rec Yards TD
2014 14 8 100 0
2015 12 26 484 3
2016 13 92 1293 11
2017 14 72 1111 7

Film Study: North Dakota State (2017), TCU (2016)

I watched Goedert against North Dakota State and TCU – the two key opponents mentioned above.  Let’s first look at Goedert in 2017 vs NDSU.  I was immediately struck by how versatile his usage was in the Jackrabbit offense.  Not only did Goedert line up inline, he lined up offset, split out and in the backfield.  Goedert is not a great blocker but I would say he is at least above average for the class.  Two blocks, coincidentally on back-to-back plays on the tape yet separated by minutes in the game, showed decent strength and form.  Don’t get me wrong, he will need improvement as a blocker in the NFL but what rookie tight end doesn’t?  Here are the two blocks:

In the first play, Goedert initiates contact with the defender with a quick strike.  He uses strong leg drive to push the defensive end back and hooks him to create a hole for the runner.  In the second play, Goedert again initiates the contact by getting his hands on the defender first.  He uses the linebacker’s aggressiveness against him as he pushes him inside just as the receiver comes past on the end-around.

Later in the game, Goedert impressed me with his concentration when he tipped a ball to himself and caught it with one hand.  He gets a clean release off the line and beats the covering linebacker.  He makes the tip and the catch look effortless as he walks into the endzone.  It was just one of a number of good-to-great catches I saw him make while watching tape and highlight reels.  Granted, it is easier to make the spectacular play when you’re playing against lesser competition.

On the ensuing two point conversion, Goedert stars in a clever trick play.  The running back takes a handoff and then hands to Goedert who comes on the reverse.  Goedert then pitches the ball to the quarterback who is in the flat.  It’s an ugly and dangerous pitch but it worked.  I don’t think there’s anything to glean from the play aside from reinforcing his versatility.

Against TCU, Goedert had a nice score that tied the game at 31.  He was lined up on the line and feigned blocking long enough to sell the fake on the jet sweep.  The defenders all fall for the fake and leave Goedert wide open.  He catches the ball in the open field and his size advantage is immediately apparent: there’s no way that the smaller safety can bring him down before the goal line.

While watching the TCU tape, I found myself disappointed in Goedert’s route running.  A number of his routes looked labored and slow.  One particular play late in the third quarter just looked like a lazy post pattern.  The safety is easily able to cover Goedert and break on the ball.  An NFL safety may have turned it into an interception.  The play ends in a defensive pass interference but that’s a moot point.  He should have done better on that play with the game still in the balance.

SWOT Analysis: (SWOT analysis is a way to study the internal and external factors that may help or hinder your ability to achieve an objective.  The objective here: getting drafted.)

Strengths: Size, volume of production in college, durability from 2013-2016, personality, versatility.

Weaknesses: 2017 injuries, level of competition in the FCS, speed (pending combine measurement), route running.

Opportunities: Due to his size and production in college, teams may view Goedert as a potential starter rather than a situational receiver.

Threats: Teams may get caught up on the recent ankle and hamstring injuries, or the lack of high level competition, and drop Goedert down their board.  Teams may be hesitant on Goedert until after they see him run at the combine as that will greatly impact his value.

Draft Round Grade:  Early 2nd Round

I believe that Goedert’s stock will continue to rise as more and more people get eyes on him.  A solid combine will also propel him higher in the draft as it’ll be the first time scouts can compare him to FBS players (the Senior Bowl injury really hurt, in my opinion).  Goedert isn’t the best blocker but he’s good enough that teams will view him as a more complete tight end prospect than somebody like Mark Andrews.

Recent NFL Comparison: Travis Kelce

While watching Goedert’s usage on tape, I felt there was a strong correlation to how Kelce is used by the Chiefs.  Kelce lines up in multiple positions, is used heavily on screens and non-traditional TE routes, and is included on trick plays.  Goedert will need to run closer to the Sports Illustrated estimate (4.65) than his NFLDraftScout.com estimate (4.81) to get close to Kelce’s speed (4.63).  I don’t think he’ll get under 4.70 so he’s definitely slower than Kelce but they are of a similar build.  Like Goedert, Kelce was not without some negatives (a suspension and lack of production) but he was worth the risk.

 

Jaylen Samuels, TE/RB/FB, North Carolina State

As the loquacious Winston Churchill might say if he were an NFL Draft analyst, Jaylen Samuels is “a riddle, wrapped in a mystery, inside an enigma.”  My Twitter followers may recognize the name because I groused about Samuels at numerous times last season.  To say that Samuels may be the precursor to “positionless” football is not a stretch.  More so than for any other prospect, Samuels’ fantasy value will come down to who drafts him and their plans to utilize him.  In reality, Samuels does not fit in a preview of tight end prospects, he will most surely be drafted as a hybrid RB/FB.  I kept him with the tight ends for now more out of personal convenience than anything else.  At the Senior Bowl, Samuels measured in at 5114 (remember that’s shorthand for 5’11” and 4/8″) and 223lbs.  Since 2010, not a single TE has measured at 6’0″ or shorter at the combine; just one weighed less than 230lbs.  Like I said, he’s not a TE.  He’s also too light to be a true FB because he’d be the second lightest FB since 2010.  I keep talking about what Samuels isn’t, so let’s shift gears and talk about what he is: Samuels is the ultimate third down and two minute drill weapon.  His versatility lining up all over the field means that he has experience running pass patterns from a variety of formations.  His experience as an inline TE should mean he’s at least an average blocker (sadly the tape I watched didn’t highlight any of his blocks).  His prowess as a receiver and a short yardage runner is evident by looking at his stats and a cursory glance at his tape.  As far as injury or character concerns, there is not much to report.  Samuels has fought through a few minor injuries (foot, hamstring, possible concussion) but did not miss any games in 2015, 2016 or 2017.  I expect Samuels to be under-drafted in the NFL Draft compared to how excited some fantasy players are about his potential.  Ultimately, his jack-of-all-trades versatility could be both a blessing and a curse.  I’d love it if my favorite team grabbed him in the 5th round but any earlier than that may be asking too much.

Stats & Accolades:  Since I included Samuels with the tight ends today, let’s start with his receiving stats.  Starting with his sophomore season, he’s had 195 receptions (an average of 65) and 18 TDs.  He averages 9.2 yards per reception which is quite low but he’s not meant to be a big play threat.  Per Pro Football Focus, Samuels was one of the top slot receivers of 2017.  42 of his 75 receptions came from the slot and he had a 76.4% catch rate from the slot.  That catch rate was good enough to rank seventh best in the FBS.  Unfortunately, Samuels ranked low in PFF’s two other signature receiving stats: overall drop rate and yards per route run.  Another area where he excelled was as a receiver on third and long.  On third downs of four or more yards, Samuels caught 15 passes and converted 10 for first downs.  He wasn’t as successful converting on third down as a rusher (just 2 for 8) but he was given the rock on fourth down seven times.  Five of those seven went for first downs, including two TDs.  Samuels was particularly effective in the red zone.  14 of his 16 touchdowns in 2017 came in the red zone (11 rushing, 3 receiving).  His 2016 situational stats show a similar trend: 11 of his 13 scores came from inside the twenty.  Not only is Samuels an interesting prospect in that he’s an equally adept receiver and rusher, but he also has limited experience as a kick returner (12 for 230 yards) and as a passer on trick plays (2 for 3, 84 yards and 1 TD).  Samuels even recorded a forced fumble and fumble recovery in 2014 on a great hustle play (more on that below).  Samuels was selected to the 2017 All-ACC team as an “all-purpose” player – a perfect description.

Receiving & Rushing Table
Receiving Rushing Scrimmage
Year School Conf Class Pos G Rec Yds Avg TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
*2014 North Carolina State ACC FR TE 11 6 96 16.0 1 15 143 9.5 1 21 239 11.4 2
*2015 North Carolina State ACC SO TE 13 65 597 9.2 7 56 368 6.6 9 121 965 8.0 16
*2016 North Carolina State ACC JR TE 13 55 565 10.3 7 33 189 5.7 6 88 754 8.6 13
2017 North Carolina State ACC SR TE 13 75 593 7.9 4 78 407 5.2 12 153 1000 6.5 16
Career North Carolina State 201 1851 9.2 19 182 1107 6.1 28 383 2958 7.7 47
Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 1/31/2018.

Film Study:  Arizona State (2017)

Let’s start by taking a look at the aforementioned hustle play that Samuels made in 2014 as a freshman against Georgia Tech.  It’s not instructive of any of his main skills but I think it further illustrates the fact that Samuels is just a good football player and a guy you would want on your team.  He lines up in the slot as a receiver and his route takes him about seven yards deep into the end zone before the ball is intercepted by a line backer.  Samuels does not give up on the play.  To the contrary, he runs the defender down and tackles him about seventy yards later.  Not only does he make the tackle but he strips the ball and recovers it to give the Wolfpack the ball back (unfortunately, Jacoby Brissett threw a pick-six on the ensuing play, oh well).  Keep in mind this play came when Samuels was just a freshman.  Nobody would have faulted him for not being involved in the play because he was so far out of it but he had the sense, and the speed, to make a difference.

Since Samuels is a prospect unlike others I have researched the last two years, I decided to do handle his film study differently.  Rather than a brief look at two films, I decided to dive deeper on one.  I chose the Arizona State game since it was the last game of the season and I felt that would give me a better representation of Samuels than tape from early in 2017 or even 2016.  The first time I watched the film, I kept track of where he lined up on each snap.  I realized quickly that Samuels is a player whose analysis suffers from watching on Youtube rather than a full game on television but it was my only option at the moment.  One of the flaws of watching “tape” on Youtube is that cut-ups typically only show plays that a player was involved in rather than every snap.  In the Arizona State game I didn’t count a single play shown where Samuels was specifically assigned as a blocker.  It’s hard for me to say whether that’s a factor of Samuels’ true usage in the game or if the creator of the clip eschewed blocking highlights.  I digress, my pet peeves aside, tracking Samuels’ snaps is still illustrative because it shows us that he can have an impact from myriad formations.  I started my film study with four designations: inline tight end, offset tight end, slot receiver, backfield.  I quickly realized that these four buckets were not enough because Samuels was lined up split out wide in a stack formation on one of the first plays shown and then shortly after at wildcat quarterback.  I tracked any wildcat snaps as “backfield” and any wide snaps as “slot receiver” for simplicity’s sake.  I counted zero inline, two offset, nine slot and five backfield.  After doing my statistical research and reading up about Samuels, that was what I had expected but it was good to see it borne out in film.

On my second watch of the film, I took more traditional notes on Samuels, including some strengths and key plays.  In my estimation, Samuels is an above average route runner.  He appears to have good movement at the top of his route stem and on multiple occasions showed good field awareness by knowing how far his route needed to go for a first down.  He has good hands which were shown on a couple of nice catches.  He caught these passes with his hands rather than letting them get into his body.  One particular example also featured a skilled mid-air adjustment.  His momentum was carrying him across the field as the pass went to his back shoulder.  He adjusted while in the air, caught the ball with his hands and maintained control through the ground.  It was a 3rd and 17 and resulted in a first down on top of a highlight catch.

Late in the game, Samuels took a wildcat snap which he took in for a game-sealing score.  He patiently presses the line after taking the direct snap and finds a hole off tackle.  He gets low and plunges into the end zone.  There wasn’t much to the play but I wanted to include it because it could be a signal of how he will be utilized in the NFL.

In my third watch of the film, my goal was to track the plays that Samuels carried the ball, specifically those plays when he was used as a traditional running back.  I wanted to track these snaps as it’s clear Samuels will need to predominantly play running back, at least to start his career.  Unfortunately, I was quite disappointed.  Per the game log, Samuels had six carries in that game but only two of them were as a running back from the backfield.  Two of them were from the wildcat and I counted four other plays when he was a receiver and got the ball on a pop-pass, end around or jet sweep (the pop-passes would count as receptions but functionally they are jet sweeps).  Both traditional carries came late in the 4th quarter, both went for a two yard gain on 2nd down and both were stretch plays.  The first was a conversion for a first down while the second came up just short of the goal line (and led to the wildcat touchdown above).  Neither were bad plays, they essentially met the goal of the play call, but they didn’t assure me that Samuels can make the transition to being a traditional running back.  If anything, these two plays reinforced my notion that Samuels needs to land on a team with a dynamic offense in order to be fantasy relevant.

SWOT Analysis: (SWOT analysis is a way to study the internal and external factors that may help or hinder your ability to achieve an objective.  The objective here: getting drafted.)

Strengths: Clutch, red zone weapon, versatile, stayed relatively healthy, route running, hands.

Weaknesses: Size does not translate to playing either TE or FB, doesn’t do any one thing great, lacks top end speed as a RB, lack of reps as a traditional RB.

Opportunities: A creative offense will salivate over his potential to create mismatches all over the formation.  Teams may see him as an ideal 53rd man as he can be serviceable at multiple positions.

Threats: Some coaches may feel that he doesn’t fit well into their scheme or into their playbook.  Teams may be hesitant to invest draft capital on somebody they believe is a gadget player.

Draft Round Grade:  5th Round

I love Samuels and I wish him success in the NFL but I don’t think he’s worth a Day Two, or early Day Three pick.  If he was two inches taller, fifteen pounds heavier and two tenths faster we could be talking about a first rounder but alas that is not the case.  Samuels will offer his NFL team a lot but I think it may be some time before he pays off.  His path to NFL success may be similar to that of Delanie Walker, another undersized TE/FB tweener, who needed eight years and a change of scenery to breakout.

Recent NFL Comparison: Joique Bell

Delanie Walker is a popular comp for Samuels but Walker is significantly bigger (6’1″ and 240lbs) than Samuels so I didn’t think it was apt to compare the two.  Instead, I decided to go with a running back who succeeded in short yardage situations, was an excellent pass catcher and had just enough speed to break off an occasional big run: Joique Bell.  Bell came from DII Wayne State so film is hard to find and of horrible quality.  Instead, I watched highlights of Bell with the Lions to refresh my memory of his style.  Bell does look larger than Samuels even though their measurements are nearly identical coming out of college.  Bell struggled to catch on in the NFL initially but ultimately had four solid seasons with the Lions.  I think Samuels has the perfect skill set to mirror Bell’s breakout season when he had 82 rushes and 52 receptions for a total of 899 yards and 3 TDs.

 

Adam Breneman, TE, University of Massachusetts

Adam Breneman, a former Penn State Nittany Lion, is one of the least talked about tight end prospects atop this class (the other being Hayden Hurst). Players like Mike Gesicki, Mark Andrews and Dallas Goedert have seen their stock fluctuate recently for varying reasons but Breneman has stayed out of the conversation for the most part. At the Senior Bowl, Breneman measured in at 6’4″ and 241lbs which was smaller than expected. Since 2010, there were sixteen tight ends drafted in the 1st through 3rd rounds who were 6’5″ or 6’6″ between 250-265lbs. For smaller tight ends (6’3″ or 6’4″ between 235-250lbs), that number of top draftees falls to just eight. One encouraging sign for Breneman though, is that three of those eight (David Njoku, Gerald Everett and Jonnu Smith) were taken last season alone. After reading a background story about Breneman on Bleacher Report, I am impressed by him as a person. After semi-retiring from Penn State due to recurring knee injuries, Breneman started working in politics for a state senator. The senator was so inspired by Breneman, then 21 years old, that he offered him a job as his chief of staff. After the respite that politics provided, Breneman’s knee was cleared by his doctors and he was convinced by UMass’ starting quarterback, Andrew Ford, to come play for the Minutemen. It didn’t hurt that Breneman and Ford had been best friends since high school. And that’s how we find ourselves here, evaluating one of the top tight end prospects from one of the nation’s worst football programs. The obvious issue with Breneman’s back story is the knee. It started as a torn ACL in high school and has lingered since; he’s had multiple procedures but the details on those are limited. NFL teams will surely do a thorough evaluation before adding him to their board. It’s unfortunate because somebody with the physical traits of Breneman should be drafted higher than he will be due to the injury history.

Stats & Accolades:  Breneman has a much smaller sample size than either Samuels or Goedert so I think it’s important to take his standout numbers with a grain of salt.  Similarly to Goedert, this is due to the quality of competition he has faced over the last two seasons at UMass.  His season totals are very good but he was often the best player on the field so you should expect him to succeed.  I looked at per-game stats to control for the fact that Breneman played in less games the last two years than most (a factor of an ankle injury this year that caused him to miss 1.5 games and the lack of any postseason games for UMass).  In 2016, he was the second ranked tight end in terms of yards per game and receptions per game (behind Evan Engram).  In 2017, Breneman improved and ranked first in both categories.  Breneman did have a number of games against Power 5 teams (Florida, Mississippi State twice, Boston College and South Carolina) plus two against BYU.  BYU may have struggled this year but prior to that they were bowl eligible for twelve straight seasons so I’ll include them in this subset.  In those seven games, Breneman averaged a respectable 4.7 receptions, 52 yards and 0.4 TDs.  According to Pro Football Focus, Breneman ranked seventh in Yards Per Route Run.  So, not only is he targeted often, he’s targeted downfield.  He was also atop the Drop Rate table checking in with a perfect 0.0% (he caught 57 of 57 catchable balls).  Breneman was selected to a few post season All-American teams in honor of his accomplishments as a receiver.

Receiving & Rushing Table
Receiving Rushing Scrimmage
Year School Conf Class Pos G Rec Yds Avg TD Att Yds Avg TD Plays Yds Avg TD
2013 Penn State Big Ten FR TE 8 15 186 12.4 3 0 0 0 15 186 12.4 3
*2015 Penn State Big Ten SO TE 0 0 0
2016 Massachusetts Ind JR TE 12 70 808 11.5 8 0 0 0 70 808 11.5 8
2017 Massachusetts Ind SR TE 11 64 764 11.9 4 0 0 0 64 764 11.9 4
Career Overall 149 1758 11.8 15 0 0 0 149 1758 11.8 15
Penn State 15 186 12.4 3 0 0 0 15 186 12.4 3
Massachusetts 134 1572 11.7 12 0 0 0 134 1572 11.7 12
Provided by CFB at Sports Reference: View Original Table
Generated 1/31/2018.

Film Study:  Ohio (2017), South Carolina (2016)

The two main traits I concentrated on while reviewing Breneman’s film were his blocking and his hands.  Let’s start with the blocking.  Compared to other tight ends in this class with approximately the same value, I would say that Breneman is a below average blocker.  He is a mix of misses and near-misses when it comes to blocking.  When he succeeds with a blocking assignment, it’s often not pretty.  That’s not to say he isn’t ever effective but it’s important to keep in mind the quality of the rushers he’s facing.  I have concerns about his ability to hold up to an NFL pass rush.  Two back to back plays illustrate my “misses and near-misses” thinking.  On the first play, he ultimately keeps the defender in front of him but looks stiff while doing so.  The defender makes the initial contact and almost beats him to the inside which would have been devastating since it was a flea flicker and easily could have led to a fumble on the pitch back.  After watching a few times in slow-mo, I noticed he grabbed the defenders jersey right from the start but it was only visible near the end of the block when the defender tried to shrug him off (no penalty was called).  On the second play, Breneman does his best impression of a Spanish matador and gets beat off the snap.  The play is meant to go the other direction so it’s not much of an issue but he again grabs the jersey and could have been called for a hold which would have wiped out the sixteen yard gain.

Against South Carolina, it was much of the same as far as blocking.  There were a few more positive plays than I noticed against Ohio, a good sign against a superior opponent.  I didn’t track such plays but my impression after watching both films is that Breneman is much better when blocking up field or when split out, likely because he’s blocking a smaller DB.  He struggles most as an inline blocker.  His worst play against South Carolina was probably the worst attempt at a block I have seen while watching film so far this offseason.  Breneman just gets blown up at the snap by the defender’s bull rush.  He doesn’t get his hands on his man and loses his feet right away.  It did impact the play even though it still went for a first down.  I fear this is what he may look like when blocking at the next level.

I didn’t see much evidence of Breneman’s supreme hands against Ohio but there was one worthy example in the second quarter.  Breneman shows good concentration on the play as he is knocked off his route by the line backer and the safety very nearly tips the ball as it sails over his head.  Breneman is able to find an opening in the back of the end zone and looks the ball into his hands without being distracted.  He spots his landing and gets both feet in bounds for what would have been a score even in the NFL.  The play looked simple but others could not have made it look as effortless as he did.

I was largely unimpressed with Breneman against South Carolina.  He had a fumble in the first quarter.  He was heavily involved throughout the game (9-94-2) but there was only one catch that I noted as a must watch.  That being said, the play I do include below is fantastic.  It’s 3rd and 17, with less than five minutes left, with his team down by 13.  Breneman is lined up in a stack behind a receiver.  He gets a free release and runs up the seam into traffic.  Ford throws the ball to his outside shoulder which lets Breneman pirouette and use his body to box out the  oncoming defender.  He takes a big hit as he catches the ball but holds on for the score.  The play serves as a fitting illustration of exactly what Breneman can offer.

SWOT Analysis: (SWOT analysis is a way to study the internal and external factors that may help or hinder your ability to achieve an objective.  The objective here: getting drafted.)

Strengths:  Character, leadership, hands.

Weaknesses:  Health, smaller than estimated in the preseason, lacks top speed for the position.

Opportunities:  Teams will fall in love with Breneman in interviews which could increase his stock.

Threats:  Teams may decide to leave Breneman off their board completely due to his lengthy injury history.  His disappointing measureables may cause some scouts to question what they saw on tape (i.e. “maybe he was a product of the competition”).

Draft Round Grade:  Late 2nd, Early 3rd Round

I have been high on Breneman since the start of the 2017 season so I really hope he hits the high end of my projection.  It’s a shame his health is such a concern otherwise we could be talking about a similar draft stock as Evan Engram from 2017 (23rd overall).

Recent NFL Comparison:  Maxx Williams

Maxx Williams was one of my favorite players coming out of college football in 2015.  He had a propensity for circus catches: one-handed, toe-tapping, defender-draped.  Breneman doesn’t quite have the highlight reel of Williams but the similarities are numerous.  They are close in size and speed, both had two years of production in college, both showcased great hands, both were below average inline blockers and sadly both had their careers derailed by injury.  Williams’ worst injuries came once he landed in the NFL whereas Breneman’s started back in high school but that’s even more to the point.  Scouts who see a 6’4″, sticky-handed move tight end with knee injuries may think about the wasted pick that Williams has become.


Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch.  If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen.  I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability.  If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents.  Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
  • Film: 2018 NFL Draft Database by @CalhounLambeau, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, ndtscouting.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

2018 RSO Rookie Mock Draft v2.1

Updated: January 27th 2018

My first 2018 rookie mock draft was published back on Sept 6 and while some things have changed, I am actually quite pleased with how my mock draft held up throughout the season.  I followed the same guidelines here as I did back in September.  Namely,  I used two base assumptions: 1) a standard one QB roster setup and 2) any junior good enough to be considered will declare early (the deadline is Jan 15 so by the time you read this we may already know that some guys are not going into the draft).  Players are broken down into tiers and I have noted where they were mocked last time to show their movement from version to version.  To view version 1.0, click here.  Version 2.0 never saw the light of day as Bryce Love, Damien Harris and Myles Gaskin decided to return to school before publishing (for what it’s worth they were at 1.09, 2.06 and 2.09 respectively).  I also compile mock draft information for the /r/DynastyFF sub Reddit which you can view here.  Share your thoughts with me on Twitter @robertfcowper.

1.01, Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State (last: 1.01)

Barkley is in a tier all by himself.  He’s a supreme athlete (possibly sub-4.40 speed) with good vision and is a good pass catcher.  He’ll be the consensus first pick in just about every fantasy rookie draft and could be a Top 5 NFL Draft pick.  Don’t overthink it.

1.02, Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia (1.03)

1.03, Derrius Guice, RB, LSU (1.02)

(Note: this was written prior to Nick Chubb’s poor performance in the championship game.  In hindsight, I am less confident about placing him at 1.02.  One game does not a career make but still he played poorly against a defense full of NFL talent.  I will re-visit this in the offseason)  I now have Chubb and Guice flipped compared to where I had them to start the season.  Heading into the season, Chubb’s 2015 knee injury felt like more of a concern than it does now since he has completed two full seasons since.  Their stats this season were similar but Chubb had a slight edge as a rusher (1,320 yards and 15 TDs for Chubb, 1,251 and 11 TDs for Guice).  Neither is a receiver like Barkley.  Both backs have a career high of 18 receptions in a season – Guice did so in 2017 while Chubb did so as a freshman in 2014.  The margin between the two for me is razor thin.  I lean towards Chubb since we have a bigger sample size.

1.04, Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama (1.04)

1.05, James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State (1.08)

1.06, Ronald Jones, RB, USC (2.07)

I still have Ridley as my WR1 even though 2017 was not a great season (just 59 receptions, 935 yards and 4 TDs prior to the championship game).  To my eye, he is just the most skilled WR in the class, regardless of his production.  He is very fast (4.35 40 yard dash in the Spring), jumps well enough to out play his 6’1″ height and is a good route runner.  Washington is pretty quick himself but he just doesn’t seem as polished as Ridley.  It’s hard to argue against Washington’s production but I think he’ll be drafted later than Ridley and won’t be as good of a pro in the long run.  Washington is this high though because I think he will make an early impact in the league if he lands on the right team.  Jones makes a huge jump from 2.07 to 1.06.  I questioned his size to start the year, I thought he was too tall for his weight, but am no longer as concerned because he put on some weight.  He’s such a quick and fast runner and was very productive this year (1,550 yards, 19 TDs).  If he was a little more “squat” but just as fast and nimble he’d be challenging for the 1.02.

1.07, Rashaad Penny, RB, San Diego State (undrafted)

1.08, Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU (1.07)

Rashaad Penny made a huge impression on me this season.  I noticed Penny in August but thought he was more of a returner than a running back.  He proved his worth as a rusher (his 2,248 yards led the FBS) but still managed to contribute as a return man (3 return TDs).  Penny will probably be an early Day Three draft selection but I think his value as a return man will help him see the field earlier.  Bryce Love originally found himself in this tier before deciding to return to school.  Conversely to the ascending Penny, Sutton’s stock is falling for me.  Sutton has the best size of the top three receivers (6’4, 215lbs) but I have some concerns.  In my past research, I found that he mostly beat up on bad defenses; against the best defense he played this year (TCU), he was held to one catch for zero yards.  It also bothers me that Sutton was not the leading receiver on his team this year (Trey Quinn had more receptions, yards and touchdowns).  Sutton likely saw extra defensive attention but if he’s to be an NFL star, he must be able to dominate even against double coverage in games against lesser defenses.  Interesting stat for Sutton, 8 of his 31 career receiving touchdowns came in three games against North Texas.  I want to see him at the combine – if he comes in smaller than advertised he could fall out of my first round.

1.09, Royce Freeman, RB, Oregon (1.07)

1.10, Anthony Miller, WR, Memphis (2.02)

2.01, Sony Michel, RB, Georgia (2.06)

2.02, Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M (1.05)

This tier features some of my favorite players in the draft in terms of value.  I was high on Freeman to start the season before he came out on fire (10 TDs in the first four games).  His pace slowed in the middle of the season but he finished strong too with 6 TDs in the games against Arizona and Oregon State.  He decided to skip the bowl which was disappointing because I wanted to see him against Boise State’s defense.  Despite the positive impression he made on me, I do have him a little lower now because he was jumped by Ronald Jones and Rashaad Penny at the position.  Two players who did not skip the end of their seasons are Anthony Miller and Sony Michel.  Miller is an absolute gamer who I want on my team.  He’s not that big or that fast but he’s just productive.  He runs routes well and has possibly the best hands in the class.  He could have broken his leg in the AAC Championship game and he would have still finished the overtime.  It may be a bit of a reach but I’m willing to take Miller at the end of the first to guarantee I get him.  Michel is sometimes overshadowed by Chubb but he’s just as good in his own right.  He has two 1,000+ yard seasons to his name and a career 6.1 yards per carry average.  He is a better receiver than his 9 receptions in 2017 show.  In 2015 and 2016 he had 48 combined.  The hype on Michel is growing so you may not be able to get him at 2.01 but let’s not overreact to two nationally televised games.  Michel will be a solid pro but I’m not willing to jump him over Chubb.  Kirk dropped because I was probably too high on him originally but I still like him.  He’s a great return man but so many of his receptions come at the line of scrimmage that I worry his NFL role may be limited.

2.03, Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA (2.08)

2.04, Sam Darnold, QB, USC (2.01)

This is where my RSO mock will diverge slightly from a true dynasty mock.  I strongly believe that going quarterback early in the second round of your rookie mock is the way to go.  The salary paid will be less than $2mil per season which is a fantastic bargain for a starting quarterback, especially considering that most quarterbacks taken in the first round of the NFL Draft will see game action sometime in the first season.  The return on investment here is so high when you “hit” that it’s worth taking a chance on a “miss.”  Readers will notice that 1) Rosen has jumped Darnold and 2) I am taking the QBs a little later now.  Neither guy had a great season and they both come with some warts so I think this spot feels right.  Even if Darnold gets drafted higher, barring some crazy trade that lands him on a good team, I would go with Rosen first as I feel he is more NFL-ready and will realize more value during his four year RSO rookie contract.

2.05, Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame (2.03)

2.06, Akrum Wadley, RB, Iowa (undrafted)

2.07, Michael Gallup, WR, Colorado State (3.07)

This was a very tough stretch for me to rank.  I originally included Myles Gaskin and Damien Harris in this tier but they are now removed as they seek a higher grade next year.  St. Brown dropped between mocks because he only had 33 receptions.  Like Calvin Ridley, he was the leading receiver on a run-heavy offense.  I didn’t count that against Ridley but I do against St. Brown because it’s tough to invest highly in a guy with just 92 career receptions.  St. Brown would have dropped further if it weren’t for the decisions of Love and Harris ahead of him.  Wadley and Gallup mostly stayed under the radar this season but move up in my rankings even though their per-touch averages decreased.  They both significantly increased the number of touches they handled this season and played well in their biggest games.  Gallup totaled 21 receptions and 282 yards in three games against Power 5 defenses (Oregon State, Colorado, Alabama); Wadley had 158 total yards versus Ohio State in what was ultimately the death blow for the Buckeyes’ playoff chances.

2.08, Dante Pettis, WR, Washington (2.04)

2.09, Bo Scarborough, RB, Alabama (1.06)

2.10, Josh Adams, RB, Notre Dame (undrafted)

Bringing up the rear of the second round are three Power 5 players that I would be willing to take a shot on despite my concerns about their size.  Pettis is a dynamo and can change a game with one touch.  He had four punt return touchdowns this year and led the FBS in punt return average.  He managed to increase his receptions this year but his per-touch averages decreased.  He’s 6’1″ but about 195lbs so he’s a little too light.  The fact that his former teammate John Ross was such a bust as a first rounder last year probably hurts Pettis even if it’s not fair.  Scarborough and Adams were both productive in college but at 6’2″ they might be too tall to play running back effectively in the NFL.  The comps in that size are not favorable.  The best is Derrick Henry but other than that it’s a lot of no-name players over the last decade.

3.01, Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma (undrafted)

If it makes RSO salary cap sense to take a quarterback near the top of the second, it stands to reason you should at the top of the third.  Mayfield is currently my QB3 after an incredibly efficient season but I want to watch more tape.  Heading into the season I had both Mason Rudolph, Lamar Jackson and Luke Falk ranked higher.  Right now Rudolph would be the only one I consider putting here instead of Mayfield.

3.02, Mike Gesicki, TE, Penn State (undrafted)

3.03, Allen Lazard, WR, Iowa State (3.01)

3.04, Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina (3.05)

3.05, Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma (2.10)

Let the tight end run begin!  I think everybody would agree that this year’s tight end class pales in comparison to last year but when is the right time to take one?  I’m having trouble valuing them so I’ll bet others are too.  My guess is that once one goes in your RSO draft, two or three will follow shortly after.  Gesicki gets the nod as the top prospect because he’s bigger than both Andrews and Hurst and at least as athletic, if not more.  Hurst is more of a traditional TE than the other two as he blocks better but he’s also fast enough and a good pass catcher.  I had Hurst above Andrews in my early 2018 positional rankings and will stick with my gut.  It takes time for tight ends to develop, Evan Engram notwithstanding, so I’ll knock Andrews down a peg because he so rarely lined up as a tight end in college.  Lazard isn’t a TE but he’s a big-bodied receiver who I am a fan of.  He was a key part of Iowa State’s miracle run (71-941-10).  I wish I was able to find him a spot higher because it feels like I’m down on him compared to start the season but that’s not the case.

3.06, Auden Tate, WR, Florida State (undrafted)

3.07, Simmie Cobbs, WR, Indiana (undrafted)

3.08, Kalen Ballage, RB, Arizona State (3.04)

3.09, Jaylen Smith, WR, Louisville, (undrafted)

3.10, Deon Cain, WR, Clemson (1.10)

Similarly to how I ended the second round, I will end the third round with a group of Power 5 players who I will take a flyer on.  Tate has elite size, ball skills and body control but has just 65 career receptions.  Cobbs also has elite size but he concerns me.  He was suspended to start the 2016 season for “not living up to the responsibilities of the program,” and then subsequently suffered a season ending injury in his first game that year.  In the summer of 2017 he was arrested at a concert.  He didn’t face any discipline so it’s probably nothing but still I would worry about a pattern of negative behavior.  Ballage is a bowling ball at 6’3″ and 230lbs.  He is an effective receiver but averages just 4.4 yards per carry in his career.  His size concerns me too.  It’s hard to find a back with receiving stats like he had in 2016, so with a late third, what the heck.  I don’t know enough about Jaylen Smith to properly evaluate him yet but our friends at the Dynasty Command Center are very high on him so I’ll trust their analysis.  Smith had a crazy 22.9 yards per reception average in 2016 which was unsustainable (in 2017 it was still a solid 16.3).  Deon Cain is another player who concerns me off the field.  After a failed drug test, Clemson suspended him in 2015 for both of their College Football Playoff games and continued to hold him out through Spring practice.  He lead the Tigers in yards (734) and TDs (6) this season but I was hoping for more now that he was out of Mike Williams’ shadow.

Honorable Mentions

4.01, Richie James, WR, Middle Tennessee State (undrafted)

4.02, Mike Weber, RB, Ohio State (undrafted)

4.03, Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State (undrafted)

4.04, Adam Breneman, TE, UMass (undrafted)

4.05, Kerryon Johnson, RB, Auburn (undrafted)

4.06, Deontay Burnett, WR, USC (undrafted)

4.07, Jalin Moore, RB, Appalachian State (undrafted)

4.08, Dallas Goedert, TE, South Dakota State (undrafted)

4.09, Jaylen Samuels, TE, North Carolina State (undrafted)

4.10, Lamar Jackson, QB, Louisville (undrafted)

Guys who I like but couldn’t find space for yet: Ryan Finley, Ito Smith, Jordan Chunn, Cedric Wilson, Antonio Callaway, Troy Fumagali


Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch.  If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen.  I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability.  If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents.  Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
  • Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

Early 2018 Positional Rankings

Updated: November 8th 2017

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the storylines, players and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention.  To view my weekly picks, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper.  Check back throughout the season as The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year. 

It may only be November but I think it’s time to start looking at positional rankings for 2018.  I did struggle at times with these rankings as to whether they should be based on my perceived fantasy value or in what order I believe players will be drafted.  Let’s say these rankings are a composite of both ideals.  I will separate out the two different mindsets in my future RSO and NFL mock drafts.  I have included brief notes on interesting players for each position.  For more detailed play analysis follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper or read my weekly The Watch List pieces which have, and will continue to, spotlight future fantasy relevant players.

Quarterbacks

Rosen is my QB1 because he is likely the most “pro ready” of the prospects since he is playing in a pro-style system with good size and stats.  Darnold looks likely to go back but if he does declare early he has hurt is stock with too many turnovers this year.  You may be surprised to see Finley and Litton on my list.  I have watched a bunch of NC State this year and have liked Finley’s ability to manage the game and limit mistakes.  Litton is a big (6’6″ 233lb) three year starter whose stats have been consistent through each season (including 590 yards and 4 TDs in his two games versus Power Five opponents); no guarantee he comes out but I’m intrigued.

Running Backs

The top of my list is pretty “chalk” for those who have been paying attention to the college season so far.  I did decide to put Chubb over Guice but they are so close it’s a pick’em.  Adams and Scarborough fall out of my Top 10 because I’m concerned about their size; few RBs at their height or taller (6’2″) have had sustained production in the NFL.  I sneak Jalin Moore in at RB15 because I think a team will take him for his pass protection skills as a great third down back; per Pro Football Focus he’s one of only a few RBs with a perfect “pass blocking efficiency.”

Wide Receivers

I have Ridley at WR1 even though he hasn’t put up huge numbers this season (or last).  I like his consistency because even though the offense focuses on the run, he still has three or more receptions in all but four of his 38 career games.  He also has a pedigree that few can match as he was the #1 receiver recruit in his class and had a breakout season as a freshman (89-1,045-7) in 2015.  He’s slight, just 190lb for his 6’1″ frame, which I have to acknowledge as a big negative because I am critical of guys like Pettis and Burnett for the same reason.  Read more about my Ridley opinion in my SEC season preview.  Sills, Cobbs and Burnett landed on my list because of seasons that beat my expectations so far.  I included two small school prospects in James and Wilson because I always need a sleeper to root for.  Watch for Wilson, he’s going to be a training camp riser for whatever team he lands on.

Tight Ends

The top four on this list may not quite compare to Howard, Engram and Njoku from 2017 but it is a very good group and I bet they will creep up fantasy draft boards given how barren the position has been this season with injury and ineffectiveness.  Jaylen Samuels is my favorite prospect in all of college football right now.  He has stat lines like no TE ever before (56-474-3 receiving and 39-209-7 rushing this season) and will likely project more as a FB or H-Back in the NFL.  Being position eligible at TE while getting goal line carries would be an incredible fantasy advantage.  If he lands with a creative offense he will be the ultimate third down weapon.  Never heard of Goedert or Yurachek?  Don’t worry I hadn’t either before I started my research but both are big and productive so I ranked them over some other smaller athletic types.


Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch.  If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen.  I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability.  If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents.  Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com
  • Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
  • Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

2018 RSO Rookie Mock Draft v1.0

Updated: September 6th 2017

Here it is, version 1.0 of my RSO rookie mock draft for 2018.  Remember, it’s early.  Very early.  Players will be overperform, underperform, go on hot streaks, go through slumps, get hurt, get suspended, get arrested or maybe not even declare early.  What I’m trying to say is use this as a tool to start your rookie research but don’t bank on it come May.  When creating this mock draft, I used two base assumptions: 1) a standard 1 QB roster setup and 2) any junior good enough to be considered will declare early.  For more information on most of these players, check out my Watch List previews which feature deeper dives on stats and film study.  Share your thoughts with me on Twitter @robertfcowper. Note: I wrote this article in August before the season began so any big games or injuries from the beginning of the season are not taken into account.  Updated versions will be posted throughout the season.

1.01, Saquon Barkley, RB, Penn State
1.02, Derrius Guice, RB, LSU

Preseason hype has these two locked into the first two slots. I would expect them to jockey with each other throughout the season as they have good and bad games. I believe Barkley will end up the consensus 1.01 due to his larger workload and his pass catching ability.

1.03, Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia

If it weren’t for Chubb’s serious knee injury last year he would have been in the 1.01 mix. I might be higher on him than some but I feel putting him at 1.03 already takes the injuries into consideration, no need to knock him down further.  Not a bad consolation prize if you miss out on Barkley or Guice.

1.04, Calvin Ridley, WR, Alabama
1.05, Christian Kirk, WR, Texas A&M

Having Ridley as the WR1 is not the norm per my research. Ridley was more highly sought as a high school recruit than Kirk and hasn’t done anything to dissuade my opinion yet. Kirk is electric and might have a higher ceiling (I compared him to Odell Beckham Jr. in my SEC preview), but a lower floor, so it comes down to your risk tolerance.

1.06, Bo Scarborough, RB, Alabama
1.07, Royce Freeman, RB Oregon

Like Chubb, Scarborough’s injury history drops him down my mock draft. He also had an academic related suspension to start his freshman season. If he can stay healthy, you would be getting a massive value here.  Freeman screams NFL running back to me when I look at his stats and his highlights. He may end up being a day three real life pick but I have a feeling he will be fantasy relevant very early in his career.

1.07, Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU
1.08, James Washington, WR, Oklahoma State
1.10, Deon Cain, WR, Clemson

Sutton and Washington are a clear tier break at the position for me after Ridley and Kirk. They both have negatives that concern me. Sutton racked up his 2016 stats against very weak defenses; Washington looks smaller to me than his 6’0″ and 205lb listing suggests. There are some bright spots though. Sutton has NFL size and the ability to make spectacular high-point or toe-tap catches; Washington has breakaway speed that I likened to Desean Jackson.  Cain really impressed me when I researched him. He contributed as an underclassmen on very successful Clemson teams that were full of NFL talent. Now that he’s the BMOC Cain should impress everybody else.  I have Sutton ranked highest of the three because he has the best chance to move up my rankings.

2.01, Sam Darnold, QB, USC

I really wanted to put Darnold at 1.10 but I didn’t have the guts to do it yet. For our purposes here, I am using a standard 1 QB format so Darnold isn’t quite that valuable. In a superflex? He’ll move up to the 1.06 range. I continue to believe that the value of second round quarterbacks in the RSO format is too good to pass up (pun intended).

2.02, Anthony Miller, WR, Memphis
2.03, Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame
2.04, Dante Pettis, WR, Washington

Despite the pedigree of St. Brown and Pettis, I put Miller ahead of them. Maybe it’s a foolish decision, but even though they have had good production, I have questions about the size of St. Brown and Pettis.  St. Brown is long and lean; of the seven WR who measured 6’4″ and 205lb or less at the combine since 2010, all were busts.  The list of successful NFL wide receivers who weigh less than 190lbs, like Pettis, is short. Miller isn’t really any bigger but he just popped when I watched him – maybe because he was playing against lesser defenders. He did have one insane OBJ-esque touchdown catch that itself made me want to bump him even higher.  All three of these guys could gain ground in my mock drafts if they gain some weight.

2.05, L.J. Scott, RB, Michigan State
2.06, Sony Michel, RB, Georgia
2.07, Ronald Jones, RB, USC

I’m lower on Jones than some of the devy sites I read. I just was not a fan after doing some early research. He’s too tall for his weight and he only has one career 20+ carry game. Scott does not have the weight concern – he’s a bruiser at 230lbs – but it was disappointing that his TD production slipped in 2016, albeit on a bad Spartans team. I’m expecting the team, and his stats, to improve in 2017. Michel has shared the Georgia backfield with more highly touted backs in Todd Gurley and Nick Chubb. He likely won’t rise to their fantasy draft pick heights, but he should be a decent NFL pick. I put Michel above Jones because of the dominant way Michel closed out 2015 after Chubb got hurt.

2.08, Josh Rosen, QB, UCLA
2.09, Josh Allen, QB, Wyoming

The two Joshes will battle for the QB2 spot behind Sam Darnold. I have Rosen ahead right now because I think he’s more NFL ready but I expect Allen to put up huge numbers against the MWC’s weaker opposition. Even more so than with Darnold at 2.01, the value here for either quarterback is too good to pass up.

2.10, Mark Andrews, TE, Oklahoma
3.01, Allen Lazard, WR, Iowa State

I’m confident that these two tall Big 12 pass catchers will be solid pros but they aren’t very sexy hence the later picks. Andrews is 6’5″ and 250lbs and has 14 career receiving TDs on 50 receptions.  He is more of a “move tight end” and often lines up off the line of scrimmage in the Sooners’ spread offense; he isn’t the best TE in the class but will probably be drafted highest for fantasy purposes.  Lazard, a senior, is the same height as Andrews but weighs in at about 225lbs. He has been the best player on a struggling Iowa State team since he was a true freshman.

3.02, Myles Gaskin, RB, Washington
3.03, Damien Harris, RB, Alabama
3.04, Kalen Ballage, RB, Arizona State

These three Power Five running backs find themselves in the third round instead of the second because each has some negatives. I changed the order a number of times but settled on Gaskins first. Neither Harris nor Ballage have been “the guy” for their offenses and both have some minor injury concerns. Meanwhile, Gaskin has almost as many career carries as the other two combined but I think he will measure in smaller than advertised.

3.05, Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina
3.05, Troy Fumagalli, TE, Wisconsin

It’s unlikely that we see Top 12 prospects in 2018 like we did in 2017 but I’ll bet we get 3 or 4 of them taken in standard RSO drafts with owners who missed out on the 2017 class and hoping for a repeat in 2018.   Hurst was near the top in receptions and touchdowns by TEs last year with a true freshman quarterback so he will see improved production.  I watched his film against South Florida from last year and I’d say he’s a B to a B+ blocker, with good hands (evidenced by a nice one-handed touchdown catch) and good speed.  If it weren’t for Fumagalli’s injury history (it’s extensive) he’d be higher on this list.  He’s a better blocker than Hurst, probably the best blocking TE I have seen when watching film the last two seasons, and should see the NFL field quickly.

3.07, Michael Gallup, WR, Colorado State
3.08, Corey Willis, WR, Central Michigan
3.09, Jordan Chunn, RB, Troy

I’m calling my shots with these three small-school players. If they don’t put up stellar numbers they won’t make it this high in your fantasy drafts but I think each has a chance to rocket up expert rankings to find their way on your radar. Gallup is a high volume JUCO transfer who caught 14 TDs in his first NCAA season. Willis is a speedster with good hands who broke out for 72 receptions as a junior and caught my eye while writing my MAC preview. Chunn is the Sun Belt’s best hope at a fantasy relevant rookie in my opinion. In 2016, he rebounded from a 2015 medical redshirt to gain 1,288 yards and 16 TDs; he’s big at 6’1″ 230lbs and caught 30 balls last year.

3.10, Antonio Callaway, WR, Florida

I probably should have Callaway ranked higher but I was torn on whether to include him at all.  I’d rather move him up later if he shows me more than go against my gut now.  I put him here to acknowledge that he’s probably a Top 30 devy talent but I think he’s being rated too highly.

Honorable Mention, Adam Breneman, TE, UMass

Breneman is a small-school favorite of mine who had a 70-808-8 line last year.  I originally had him in the mix at 3.05 and 3.06 with Fumagalli and Hurst but ultimately I couldn’t justify having three TEs at that spot.  At this point in the process, I believe that Fumagalli and Hurst are more  NFL-ready so I gave them the nod over Breneman.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper

The Watch List: Independents Preview

Updated: July 23rd 2017

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the players, storylines and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention.  Check back throughout the Summer for previews on each conference and my preseason Heisman predictions.  During the regular season, The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year. 

Players to Watch

  • Adam Breneman, TE, UMass: I’m not ready to anoint Breneman as my favorite prospect yet, but he’s at least my favorite that you’ve never heard of.  Breneman transferred to UMass from Penn State and made a name for himself in 2016 after sitting out 2015.  He led the FBS in receptions by a TE (70) and was second in yards (808) and TDs (8).  I had honestly never heard of him before my research for this article and I guess that’s what happens when you play on a 2-10 independent team.  As a freshman, Breneman caught just 16 passes but for a solid 12.4 yards per catch.  He’s 6’4″ and 243lb – comparable to Dennis Pitta when he came out of BYU.  Film is tough to come by right now, but the first two clips on his “official” highlight reel are of one-handed catches.  Hopefully those sure hands are borne out when we have some more film to digest.  Maybe  my optimism is misplaced but the potential for an athletic, decently sized TE with good hands is too good to ignore.  Watch for him in early games against Hawaii and Tennessee, broadcasts that should be widely available, and impress your friends with your deep TE sleeper knowledge.
  • Equanimeous St. Brown, WR, Notre Dame:  The first thing that stood out to me about St. Brown, aside from his name, was how long and lean he looked on the field when I watched his film against Miami from 2016.  He’s 6’4″ and 205lb and needs to add 5-10lb before coming out for the NFL.  Of the seven WR who measured 6’4″ and around 205lb at the combine since 2010, all were busts.  If he puts on about 10lb, he’ll measure up with the likes of AJ Green and Martavis Bryant.  ESB has just one year of production and those numbers don’t jump off the page.  As a freshman in 2015, he played predominantly as a reserve with some special teams snaps (I was surprised to see a blocked punt against USC in his 2015 game logs).  In 2016 he transitioned into the lead target and had a line of 58-961-9.  I was not impressed by the film I watched of his against Miami.  Most of his receptions were on screens or short hitch routes.  From what I saw, he does not attack the ball and catch with his hands away from his body.  He’s tall but against Miami his height wasn’t used at all.  In fact, his touchdown catch was a diving catch where he basically trapped the ball against his body while falling to the ground and blocking out the defender.  It was a nice play and maybe a sign of his versatility but at his size he should be going over defenders, not through the middle.  There were three plays that I counted where he was an aggressive and useful blocker, another good sign.  Luckily for ESB, the Irish play a tough, cupcake-less schedule so he’ll have plenty of opportunity to show us what he’s got.  Phil Steele has him as his 14th ranked draft-eligible WR; meanwhile WalterFootball.com doesn’t even have him ranked.  Looks like others are as equally as unsure about his future fantasy and NFL draft stock.
  • Josh Adams, RB, Notre Dame: I was really looking to have a prospect from BYU in this preview but nobody really stood out for me.  Instead I decided to go with Adams.  He has two solid seasons under his belt, but neither has been overly impressive.  In 2015 he rushed 116 times for 838 yards and 6 TDs; in 2016 it was 158, 933 and 5.  In 2016 he also added in 21 receptions and 193 yards.  In the tape I watched of Adams against Stanford, I was surprised by how often he seemed to be a decoy, usually by running patterns from the backfield.  He rarely stayed in to block; I counted just one time that he was in pass protection.  The times when he was handed the ball, it was mostly up-the-gut and stuffed; he didn’t show me much speed, bounce or cutting ability.  Speaking of his speed, DraftScout.com has him listed as a projected 4.58 – I don’t see it.  He’d be lucky to get close to the similarly sized TJ Yeldon who ran a 4.61 in 2015.  It may not seem like a big difference but there’s something mental about going slower than 4.60.  I’ll have to watch some more tape of Adams to get a better feel for his athleticism.  With a good 2017 season and about 1,300 rushing yards, Adams will become the fifth leading rusher in Irish history – that will get him noticed.

Storylines to Watch

  • Brian Kelly on the Hot Seat: Kelly is a household name but his record at Notre Dame doesn’t really deserve the recognition.  Everybody knows the Irish severely under performed last year when they started the preseason at #10 but finished at 4-8.  The previous winning seasons should make up for it right?  I’m not so sure.  Kelly is 59-31 overall at Notre Dame, a respectable record for most coaches, but he’s just 2-5 against Top 10 opponents, 11-14 against the Top 25 and 3-3 in bowls.  Losing records against top competition is not the way to curry favor with fervent Notre Dame fans.  Kelly has to start fresh at QB which will make 2017 even tougher (DeShone Kizer was drafted by the Browns and Malik Zaire transferred to Florida).  If Kelly doesn’t win 9+ games and win a name-brand bowl, he should be looking for a new job next Spring.
  • Can Army Repeat 2016: The Black Knights were a surprising 8-5 in 2016 and managed upset wins over Temple, Wake Forest and Navy.  Can they repeat the winning ways in 2017?  My money would be on no based on their past track record.  Before last season, Army had just one winning season (7-6 in 2010) since 1995.  The argument for continued success is that Army returns 12 starters and nearly 85% of their offensive yards, per Phil Steele.  Call me patriotic, but the college football world is just better when Army is winning games.
  • The Return of Tanner Mangum:  Mangum had a good 2015 season when filling in for the injured Taysom Hill (3,377 yards, 23 TDs) but was benched in favor of Hill again in 2016.  Mangum got back under center for the bowl game when Hill was hurt again, but he was disappointing with just eight completions and one TD.  I considered spotlighting Mangum as one of my draft prospects but he will be 25 years old at the start of the 2018 season if he came out after his junior season. That’s likely too old for NFL teams to strongly consider him as their QB of the future, and compounded if he stays for a senior year (he missed his first two years of eligibility for mission work).

Games to Watch

  • September 2, BYU vs LSU: As far as early season games go, this is nearly as good as it gets.  If Mangum has any hope of gaining some draft buzz, a strong start to the season is his ticket.  After LSU, BYU also plays Utah and Wisconsin.  If they go 2-1 in those three games I bet they end up in the Top 25 and buoy Mangum’s prospects despite my concerns about his age.
  • September 9, Georgia at Notre Dame: Another banner early season game finds Georgia traveling to South Bend for the first time in school history.  Georgia should be Top 15 to start the season but I’m a bit worried they will get caught looking ahead to the Irish when the play Appalachian State on September 2.  If the Bulldogs don’t falter to start the season, getting a scalp against Georgia could very well save Brian Kelly’s job.
  • December 9, Army vs Navy: This matchup is always one of my favorite games of the season.  The game rightfully has the spotlight to itself before the bowl games kick off and it usually features some fun-to-watch triple option offenses.  It’s rare you can watch a game and find yourself rooting for both sides, enjoy it.  ‘Merica!

 

Note: When watching film for a player, I typically pick two games at random to watch.  If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen.  I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability.  If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents.  Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample.  When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

  • Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com
  • Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
  • Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, ESPN’s First Draft podcast, draftek.com
  • Draft history: drafthistory.com
  • Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
  • Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper