IDP Start/Sit: Week 8
Week 7 was the first of the big “bye-magedon” weeks (we see you week 13 and your 6 teams on bye). However, I feel like we navigated those waters well enough to get us through to week 8 and full rosters again. Now, let’s find those best plays and matchups this week.
Week 7 Recap
DL:
Start: Dexter Lawrence (2 sacks, 2 solos, 4 assists, TFL, 4 QB hits, ) 👍
Sit: Leonard Floyd (0 sacks, 0 tackles) 👍
LB:
Start: Dorian Williams (3 solos, 2 assists) 👎- I have no idea who is going to lock in LB2 in Buffalo
Sit: Eric Kendricks (7 solos, 2 assists, TFL, FF) 👎
DB:
Start: Grant Delpit (7 solos, 3 assists, TFL) 👍
Sit: Rudy Ford (4 solos, 3 assists) 👎
Week 8 Starts & Sits
START: Bryce Huff, New York Jets, DL37 (ED28)
Bryce Huff has been on an absolute tear this year from an analytical standpoint. It starts with a top 25 win rates out pass rush set at 25%. Even crazier, his pass-rush pressure rate of 29.8%. 1 out of 4 pass rush snaps Huff is winning his rep, he is creating a pressure. His sample is smaller than others at 147 total snaps over 6 games (114 pass rush snaps), but the numbers look too good to pass up on. There is also talk of Carl Lawson trade rumors because he is “looking for more playing time” leads me to believe, Huff has earned his spot in this rotation and it is only trending up at this point. Also, over his last 3 games he is averaging 30 snaps per game and 7.6 pressures per game. Enter the New York Giants who have been experiencing 15.5 pressures per game over the last two weeks with Tyrod Taylor under center, and he is set to start his 3rd game this Sunday. Huff may be a bit “risky” due to lower volume, but the positive matchup and the torrid levels of success, I can’t help but be excited to play Bryce Huff this week!
SIT: Jonathan Allen, Washington Commanders, DL36 (DT09)
Jonathan Allen is one of the elite interior defenders of the NFL for sure, however for IDP, this isn’t an ideal week for him. Jonathan Allen could definitely make his week based on his talent and if you don’t have a better option, I understand that, but Allen has struggled over his last 2 games, only generating 3 pressures over 80 pass rush attempts. He has had a very good pass rush win percentage on the season, 19.6%. The recent down performances are not likely to be remedied in a matchup with arguably the best offensive line in the NFL on the other side of the ball. They are tied for the 11th-lowest pressure percentage allowed this year and the 4th-best in terms of pressures converted into sacks. Allen is looking for a bounce-back performance from two down weeks, but I don’t think this is the week for it.
START: Denzel Perryman, Houston Texans, LB33
Denzel Perryman was a “healthy scratch” in week 6, however, coach Demeco Ryans said this was due to the fact it wasn’t fair to try and have Perryman play with a cast. Pair that with the fact the following week was their bye week, I believe he wanted to get Perryman back to 100%. What does 100% Perryman look like? A highly efficient 16.9% tackle efficiency, near 100% snap count, and his career tackle efficiency supports this at 15.7% too. With both teams coming off their bye weeks, the Texans and Perryman take on the Carolina Panthers. The Panthers come in with an offense that runs the 5th most plays per week at 67.3 and are running 67 over the last three weeks. Now 64% of those plays are pass plays, but 63% of those pass plays are 9 yards or less down field and the zone-heavy scheme the Texans run, should allow Perryman to deliver strong value this week.
SIT: Cole Holcomb, Pittsburgh Steelers, LB30
Holcomb has been the LB1 for the Steelers all season. However, he has not been the LB1 that we like to see in that his snaps have fluctuated a bit, whereas our true LB1’s tend to play close to, if not all 100% of the snaps for their defense. His efficiency with those lower snap counts are quite average as well at 12.2%. Normally we can work through a player with average efficiency and/or even less than ideal utilization. But when we pair that with positional adjusting scoring and the player is facing one of the worst possible matchups for scoring for their position, that turns into a fade for me. Cole Holcomb against the Jacksonville Jaguars is exactly that. The Jaguars allow LB scoring against them at the 8th lowest rates for IDP scoring. Let’s lower our expectations for Holcomb this week.
START: Jamal Adams, Seattle Seahawks, DB40 (S34)
Jamal Adams was back last week and he was back in such a good way for IDP. He was 100% snaps, which is just the first part of this story. He took all but 3 snaps either in the box, on the DL, or in the slot. With snaps in the box. Now his efficiency was a bit average with only 6 tackles, we would have liked to see a slightly better performance. But in really only his true second game of playtime, I think we can expect a little bit of ramp-up. With his role seemingly more set now, the Seahawks take on the Cleveland Browns who lead the NFL in plays ran at 71.2 and an average of 69 over the last 3 games. The additional upside of the pass-rushing opportunities he saw last week of 4 chances is what really rounds out Jamal Adams’ value. He has elite alignment/utilization, a favorable matchup, and the usage for some potential big-play upside, too.
SIT: Richie Grant, Atlanta Falcons, DB38 (S33)
Richie Grant has been an average NFL safety. If you look across the board at his PFF grades, it supports this as well. This has been the case for his IDP performance up to this point for 2023 as well. 42 tackles across his 7 games for 6 tackles a game and a tackle efficiency of 9.4% is right in line of averages for safeties this season. He has provided a consistent floor for sure and can be played with that consideration, but he has provided limited upside with one splash play with an interception last week. He has played 100% of the snaps this year as well, which we can certainly appreciate. But with a fairly limited upside combined with a matchup this week against the Tennessee Titans whose offense was already the 2nd lowest plays ran this season at 55.5 plays per game. Now they are likely missing their QB1 with Tannehill out this week, the offense should likely get weaker and limit the ability of this offense even more, thus reducing Grant’s limited upside even more.
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