IDP Start/Sit: Week 4

By Jake

Updated: September 27th 2023

Here we are. Week 4. Some of us are celebrating our start, others about to panic. Wherever you land in there, let’s take a breath, focus in on week 4, and find some great options for your lineup to get your team heading towards that playoff birth!

Week 3 Recap

DL:

Start: Greg Rousseau (1 sack, 1 solo) 👍

Sit: Joe Tryon-Shoyinka (2 solos) 👍

LB:

Start: Alex Anzalone (4 solos, 1 assist) 👎

Sit: Nick Bolton (Injured)

DB:

Start: Dax Hill (1 sack, 6 solos, 1 assist) 👍

Sit: Kyler Dugger (5 solos, 2 assists, 1 PBU) 👎

Week 1 Starts & Sits

START: Za’Darius Smith, Cleveland Browns, DL46 (ED33)

The Cleveland Browns have one of the best defenses to kick off the 2023 season. While Myles Garrett has been on a tear, Smith has been quite productive in his own right, while it has not fully come through on the box score, yet.

He has 9 pressures and 4 QB hits on 73 pass rush snaps. While this has not netted a sack yet, this matchup in week 4 against the Baltimore Ravens. We targeted the Ravens matchup in week 1 for Will Anderson, and for the same reasons, we are doing it again. Lamar has an average time to throw of 2.82 seconds. This matchup along with Smith’s success winning his matchups up front, with a very strong 27.3% win rate in true pass rush sets. This looks like a great week for Za’Darius to notch his first sack of the season.

SIT: Rashan Gary, Green Bay Packers, DL25 (ED20)

Gary has done an amazing job coming back from a very serious injury last season and has already shown us what we saw in his limited breakout campaign last season before getting hurt. 4 sacks through his first 3 games, how could we “sit” Gary? Well, in comes the Detroit Lions on Thursday night with one of the best offensive lines in the NFL and an offense that appreciates a run/pass balance and focuses on getting the ball out of Goff’s hands (2.56 seconds for his time to throw).

These matchup concerns and a short week for the Packers’ defense could be better and make Gary a bit of a risk to play as a DL2 for me. He is already a limited participant from his own injury, but the potential downgrades across the rest of the defense (Campbell and Jaire) don’t help the overall case either. Gary has the talent to deliver for a lineup still, but I am planning for a bit of down week.

START: Alex Singleton, Denver Broncos, LB48

The “King of Tackle Efficiency” has not worn his crown this year while only logging a slightly above-average tackle efficiency of 13.33%. This week, against the Bears, the Broncos linebackers should find a nice bounce-back game as opposing linebackers have had top-10 performances against the Chicago Bears. Also, Josey Jewell is no guarantee for this matchup either experiencing a groin injury that took him out of week 3.

Singleton has a chance to take the lead role this week against a hapless offense and find a way back on top of the tackle efficiency hill… or at the very least, be a strong top 30 LB play for us in week 4 of our IDP seasons!

SIT: Tremaine Edmunds, Chicago Bears, LB20

Tremaine Edmunds has seen some heat this season from Chicago fans since his big contract this off-season and the lack of a good start from either side of the ball for the Bears. Edmunds has been very effective as a tackler, with one of the best seasons in his career, at 16.04% tackle efficiency. So why bench or fade Edmunds this week?

This comes down to the matchup and opportunity. Edmunds saw his snap count dip a bit last week and with no clear injury or understanding at this time from the coach, this is a little concerning. And for the Denver Broncos, opposing LBs have not fared as well for IDP against them. In fact, they are bottom 5 in points given up to LBs. For these reasons, I am passing on Edmunds as an LB2 this week.

START: Rudy Ford, Green Bay Packers, DB46 (S43)

Last season, Rudy Ford was an afterthought at the start of the 2022 season. But by the end, and going into 2023, Ford was the presumed starter for a solid Packers defense and has found a way to be successful for IDP in this new role.

He has notched 20 tackles on 212 defensive snaps. Along with 2 PBUs Rudy Ford has a decent start to the IDP season. His alignment and usage have been good, but not great as well. Taking 49.05% of his snaps within the sweet spot (DL, Box, Slot) alignments, he has made the most and gets a team in the Detroit Lions, that are top 10 in scoring for opposing teams’ safeties. And with Sam LaPorta off to a hot start and Goff’s tendency to target inside the numbers, Ford is in line for a much better performance than anticipated for week 4.

SIT: Tyrann Mathieu, New Orleans Saints, DB36 (S35)

Tyrann has played an ideal role with strong alignment in the sweet spot at, 57.9% of his snaps. However, he has had mediocre delivery for IDP with this usage. 12 total tackles on 202 snaps, 1 pass break-up, and only 2 pass rush opportunities. The under-performance for the first 3 weeks has me a bit concerned about his ability to deliver in this next matchup against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers.

The Bucs have been a bottom-half IDP scoring team for opposing safeties and looked to have been a bit exposed against the Eagles in week 3. Getting pressure on Mayfield and getting him out of the pocket has led to less success and shorter drives, which can limit our IDP upside as well.

For this week, I am out on Mathieu and I would be wary for the remainder of the season as well.

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IDP Start/Sit: Week 12

By Jake

Updated: November 24th 2022

It’s the holiday season and I hope we all have a ton to be thankful for this year. Let’s see if we can find a bit more to be thankful for with some great lineup decisions for all your IDP teams out there!
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show for them are what is the ECR over from Fantasy Pros for this week.

WEEK 11 RECAP
DL:
Start: Alex Highsmith (1 sack, 2 QB hits)
Start: Denico Autry (27 snaps, QB hit. Injured in the 2nd half but a lower performance up to that point)

Sit: Khalil Mack (1 hit, 1 solo)

LB:

Start: Frankie Luvu (Sack, 6 solos, 4 assists)

Start: Jamin Davis (2 solos, 3 assists)

Sit: Zaven Collins (3 solos, 3 assists)

DB:
Start: Dane Belton (2 solos. 59% of snaps, unstable usage and limited production, I’d pivot away moving forward)

Start: Tyrann Mathieu (5 solos, PD)

Sit: Kyle Dugger (Sack, 3 solos, 2 assists, PD. 90% of snaps! Dugger season might be in full effect moving forward)

START: Michael Danna, Kansas City Chiefs, DL53

Michael Danna has spent most of the season as a rotational pass-rusher for the Chiefs and has seen 53% of the snaps this year for their defense. Normally, not an ideal target to start. However, he has found a respectable 10.9% pass-rush pressure rate in his limited snaps. This week he gets the Los Angeles Rams who have the highest sack conversion from pressures allowed. In such a positive matchup, he shouldn’t need as many opportunities to deliver big-play upside. Additionally, the Rams should be in a negative game script that involved more passing, only increasing the opportunities for Danna. This is a deeper play, but should be available in the vast majority of leagues and has solid upside this week as a low-end DL3!

START: Lorenzo Carter, Atlanta Falcons, DL69

Lorenzo Carter has been a consistent figure in the Atlanta Falcons defensive front. He has seen 81% of the snaps so far this season, which is very strong usage for a DL position. Carter has a very favorable matchup against the Commanders who are allowing a 29% pressure rate and 17% sack conversion rate. Even though his pass-rush pressure rate is average at 7.8%. The nice bonus to his matchup this weekend as well, is his solid PFF run defense grade of 65.9 for the season. This paired with the Commanders focus on the run game (44% of plays are run) and are one of the higher plays ran per game over the last 3 weeks at 69.7. With these things considered, I like Lorenzo as a high-end DL3 candidate.

SIT: Aidan Hutchinson, Detroit Lions, DL20

This pains me to even consider Hutch here, especially with such elite snap counts, 86% on the season. However, he has delivered some big performances this season (and I believe will be a strong dynasty asset) he doesn’t have an ideal matchup against the Buffalo Bills this weekend. The Bills have only allowed a 24% pressure rate, top third in the league, as well as 8% sack conversion, which is 2nd best. Hutchinson’s IDP performances have been brought up by some unlikely things to continue. He has 2 games with interceptions in the last 3 weeks as well as 3 of his 5.5 sacks coming in 1 game in week 2. Additionally, his tackle floor for snaps played his average at best, 2.3 tackles per game. You can always start Hutch if you need him, but if you got better DL2/3 options, I would fire them up instead.

START: Kaden Elliss, New Orleans Saints, LB29

Kaden Elliss, the man behind the man. With Pete Werner experiencing an injury and having surgery, Kaden has stepped up into that role and has he thrived for IDP purposes. He is in week 3 of that recovery so if you or someone else hasn’t already grabbed Elliss, do so and fire him up. The Saints are optimistic that Werner will try and play again this year, but until then we will roll with Kaden. The last two weeks he has seen snap percentages of 96% and 92% and he used them to deliver 2.5 sacks, 18 tackles, 3 QB hits, PD, and FF. His sack production has been very efficient but he has done well this whole year with a very strong 77.8 pass-rush PFF grade on the season. Last week, he topped out at his pass-rush grade with a 91.2 performance and I think this is more of what is to come. A great tackle floor with big-play, sack upside. Now, against the 49ers and their stronger pass protection, you’d think its less than ideal, but they are running nearly 69 snaps per game and the increased opportunity should balance out for Elliss this week. You should be looking at Elliss as a top 20 LB this week with next week looking the same too.

START: Dre Greenlaw, San Francisco 49ers, LB34

Dre Greenlaw has just consistently been an efficient tackler and continues to do so this season at 14.9% and only missed 6 tackles on the season so far. Greenlaw tends to take the coverage side of the RB in most situations between him and Fred Warner. The matchup with the Saints and Alvin Kamara means Greenlaw can take that tackle efficiency and increased opportunities facing off against the Saints and Kamara. This matchup favors his Greenlaw’s ability and playstyle. As a note, for LB we love to find someone with near 100% snaps and the last 3 weeks have been rough for Greenlaw, but don’t let that fool with you and ejection in week 10 and starters being pulled in a blowout in week 11. Don’t let those numbers shy you away from Greenlaw. He is a strong candidate for LB2 this week and most of the weeks going forward.

SIT: Alex Singleton, Denver Broncos, LB27

Alex Singleton is Mr. Efficiency. He has a career tackle efficiency of 17.6% and this season is sitting at a cool 19.7% efficiency this season. While this is great, you still need the volume to make it count for overall production. Singleton has passed Jonas Griffith as LB2 on the depth chart, but he is still only seeing 59% of the snap count. While normally he can turn that into a usable week for IDP, his matchup against the Carolina Panthers is not ideal. Their offense has struggled all year and they are running the worst, 55.6 plays per game on the season. This does not bode well for a strong week for Alex and I would be looking elsewhere this week for an LB3.

START: Grant Delpit, Cleveland Browns, DB29

Grant Delpit has seen very close to 100% of the defense’s snaps for the entire season. Along with the elite usage, he has taken 56% of his total snaps from the “sweet spot” (DL, box, slot). This is great usage for any safety in IDP and as such he is a strong DB2/3 candidate on that alone. Combined with a matchup against the Buccaneers this weekend who run 67 plays per game and 72 over the last 3 means even more opportunities. And Tom Brady is leading the league in passing attempts from 0-9 yards this season, which lines up greatly with players in that “sweet spot”. Delpit should be a strong DB2 candidate DB1 upside.

START: Vonn Bell, Cincinnati Bengals, DB32

Vonn Bell is another safety with elite snap usage, with 98% played for the entirety of the season. He is sitting at 56.1% of his total snaps as well from the “sweet spot”. His matchup this week, however, does not have a pass heavy team for him to feast upon for IDP production. He gets a run-heavy team that will continue to attack the middle of the field with their run game. This gives Bell a much stronger floor than his DB32 ranking justifies. It is a solid floor play this week, with a lower ceiling, but this still makes Bell a high-end DB3 to a low-end DB2.

SIT: Kerby Joseph, Detroit Lions, DB13

Kerby Joseph has been a pleasant surprise for the Detroit Lion’s defense this year as a rookie coming on due to injuries. Once given the opportunity he has seen almost a near perfect 100% snap count. And with those snaps, he has found a way to deliver big plays with 3 interceptions and 5 PDs. The INTs are not something we should rely on this point but take more into his upside. However, teams have been taking the cover-2, or two high safeties approach against the Bills offense this year, which leads to a lower tackle efficiency overall and creates a great dependency on big-plays, which Kerby has delivered at times this year. Joseph has strong usage and a matchup that should allow for a higher snap count this week, but his floor feels too low for me to confidently use him as a DB1/2 this week. His level sits as DB3 for me but if you want to plug him in focusing on big-play opportunities, it does exist.

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