2020 Rookie Rankings Explained: Part I
This was my fourth year creating the rookie rankings for Reality Sports and it was as rewarding as ever in 2020. I look forward to the rankings each year because it’s such a unique experience and I’m grateful to have the opportunity to help inform literally every single RSO rookie draft. Since my rookie rankings can have a large impact on roster composition, I shy away from “hot taeks” and am more risk-averse than I might be in my own personal rookie drafting. I view the rookies through the lens of an RSO league and how a 3- or 4-year rookie contract can change the value of a player compared to dynasty formats. In order to create rankings that are representative for the majority of RSO leagues, I made a few assumptions on rosters and scoring (i.e. 1QB, offense scores more than defense and IDP scoring heavy on tackles/sacks). Each year there are a few themes and surprises that emerge as I’m ranking and over the next two articles I will share those with you. First up are my notes about this historically deep wide receiver class.
Click here to view the 2020 Reality Sports rookie rankings, compiled by Robert F. Cowper
Judged Jeudy
I had settled on CeeDee Lamb over Jerry Jeudy a few months ago in my personal rankings but I knew their final ranking would rely heavily on opportunity and team fit. Jeudy joins a Broncos team that has invested much draft capital in the offense the last two years. Jeudy certainly has the potential to be a fantasy stud but Drew Lock has a significantly smaller sample size of success than Dak Prescott. Your initial reaction to Lamb might have been “but they just re-signed Amari Cooper to a long-term deal” but the details are important to examine. Only $40mil of the $100mil is guaranteed and the Cowboys can cut Cooper with minimal dead cap after the 2021 season. By then I fully expect Lamb to be the alpha boundary receiver I think he’s destined to become.
ShRuggs at 1.08
In the RSO Writer’s League mock draft, I took Ruggs at 1.06 and argued that his upside was worth the reach at that point. I still believe in his blazing speed and big play ability but the fact that he was the first receiver drafted, and drafted by the Raiders, gives me pause. There’s going to be pressure on the Raiders to have Ruggs produce early and I think that that will be difficult for an undersized receiver who made much of his impact by stretching defenses horizontally before gashing them vertically. As good as those SEC defenses were, they don’t compare to the speed and skill in the NFL. I would have felt more confident in Ruggs as a rookie draft pick if he was drafted to a more stable quarterback situation and with less expectation.
Later Reagor
I vacillated on Reagor more than any other top thirty player and I ultimately ranked him lower than I expected. He’s a fun player to watch who has track athlete speed and a leaping ability that belies his 5110 height. His 2019 season, however, was a disappointment (43-611-5) as was his 40 yard dash at the combine. I ultimately put Reagor behind Minnesota’s Justin Jefferson because Jefferson is bigger, tested faster and his trend line jumped off the page after a stellar season. The Eagles have featured a strong passing offense under Doug Pederson, despite injuries to QB Carson Wentz and just about every receiver, so there is an opportunity for Reagor and I wouldn’t be upset if he proved me wrong.
Pitt the man in 2021?
Michael Pittman Jr. was the beneficiary of the biggest bump in my rankings post-draft among the top receivers. Pittman will be joining the new look Colts offense who are likely to start veteran QB Philip Rivers and rookie RB Jonathan Taylor this fall. The Colts had the NFL’s 30th ranked passing offense last season but that will be buoyed by the high-volume RIvers, a healthy TY Hilton and the emergence of Pittman. Pittman has prototypical outside receiver size at 6040/223 which should allow the offense the flexibility to predominantly line Hilton up on the inside to best showcase his abilities. Hilton is on the last year of his contract and it seems unlikely the team would re-sign the then 31 year old to a lengthy deal. I expect Pittman to have a fantasy-relevant role in 2020 with the chance to lead the Colts passing attack in 2021.
Flexy and They Know It
Two players who are likely to be drafted in most RSO leagues have great flex appeal for the NFL teams, but what does it mean for your fantasy team? Lynn Bowden Jr. was the do-it-all Wildcat that led Kentucky to a late season winning streak and a Belk Bowl victory. Bowden, who was previously a receiver and returner, was pressed into service under center early in the season. He ended the year as both the team’s leading rusher and leading receiver and had a 6-2 record as the starting quarterback. Mike Mayock of the Raiders said that they project Bowden as a running back, rather than a receiver. He never played as a true running back so I presume he’ll be deployed more as a gadget player taking wildcat snaps, running sweeps, receiving screens and returning kicks. Considering the Raiders drafted somebody like Henry Ruggs earlier in the draft who should succeed in some of the “in space” roles it remains to be seen how many touches Bowden can expect in 2020. Antonio Gibson of the Redskins has a similar skillset but is bigger, faster and more explosive than Bowden. Last year at Memphis his touches were an even split between receptions and rushes. He also served as the Tigers main kick returner. If Gibson landed on a squad other than the Redskins I would probably be more bullish on his versatile potential. Bowden and Gibson were tough to rank so I ultimately placed them one-two at the end of a standard three round rookie draft.
Notes: Heights listed are using a notation common among scouts where the first digit corresponds to the feet, the next two digits correspond to the inches and the fourth digit corresponds to the fraction, in eighths. So, somebody measuring 5’11” and 3/8 would be 5113. This is helpful when trying to sort players by height. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. There are a lot of analysts out there who have a deeper depth of knowledge about certain players but I pride myself in a wide breadth of knowledge about many players. When researching my articles I use a number of valuable resources. I would recommend bookmarking the below sites:
- Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, pro-football-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, mcubed.net, expandtheboxscore.com, washingtonpost.com
- Recruiting: 247Sports.com, espn.com, sbnation.com, rivals.com
- Film: 2020 NFL Draft Database by Mark Jarvis, youtube.com
- Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, draftscout.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, thedraftnetwork.com, nfl.com
- NFL rosters, depth charts and contract info: ourlads.com, spotrac.com
- Draft history: drafthistory.com
- Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com, mockdraftable.com
- Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s, Athlon Sports
- Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes, Saturday 2 Sunday, Locked on NFL Draft, Cover 3 College Football
- Logos & Player Media Photos: collegepressbox.com
- Odds & Gambling Stats: vegasinsider.com
Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. He is a proud member of the Football Writers Association of America and the Fantasy Sports Writers Association. Robert works as a certified park and recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.
