IDP Start/Sit: Week 15
Its playoff time!! I am hoping you are all checking out the article in hopes to get any possible edge for your fantasy playoffs matchup. If not, I hope you are just trying to stay plugged in, in an effort to keep perfecting your craft and plot for that FFIDP title next season!
As a friendly reminder, the rankings I show are the ECR from Fantasy Pros each week.
WEEK 14 RECAP
DL:
Start: Haason Reddick (Sack, solo, assist, TFL, QB hit. Not a ton, but delivered a sack for a solid week)
Start: Josh Allen (Sack, 3 solos, TFL, 2 QB hits, FR. A strong week for sure!)
Sit: Jerry Hughes (QB Hit. Old man strength may be running out?)
LB:
Start: Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah (3 solos, 3 assists. Got injured during the game, did not deliver enough of a floor here that we would have wanted)
Start: Jaylon Smith (7 solos, 2 assists. Great tackle floor performance)
Sit: David Long Jr. DNP (He ended up not playing)
DB:
Start: Rayshawn Jenkins (4 solos, 2 assists. This and Sauce are borderline good plays. I’ll take them as wins for this week)
Start: Sauce Gardner (4 solos, PD)
Sit: Talanoa Hufanga (3 solos, assist. Hufanga has been sliding in IDP production for the back half and is someone to keep a very keen eye on)
START: Azeez Ojulari, New York Giants, DL37
Azeez has struggled with injuries all season. But he has two weeks in a row now with solid snap counts and he is showing some of that 2021 flash again! He has 10 pressures and 3 sacks over these last two weeks and 41+ snaps in both games. He has struggled a bit in run defense and has limited tackle floor, but his pass-rush upside is very real. He has a strong matchup against the Washington Commanders this week who have the 5th highest pressure rate allowed this year and 13th highest sack conversion rate. And we don’t need to look any further than week 13 when Azeez last played Washington (his first game back from injury) and he delivered 7 pressures (21.9% pass-rush pressure rate), a sack, and 2 QB hits! It is safe to expect more of the same. Azeez is a strong DL2 play this week.
START: Kwity Paye, Indianapolis Colts, DL68
Kwity Paye is another top talent from 2021’s draft class that has struggled with injury this season. He is also someone who has shown reasons why we really like his upside. He has shown the ability to deliver a successful IDP week just in run defense with 3 of his 7 (full) games with 5+ tackles, while 2, 3, and 1 were his other tackle counts. A solid floor paired with an ideal matchup against the Minnesota Vikings this weekend make Paye worth way more than his DL68 ranking. The Vikings are allowing a league worst pressure rate and are tied for the 9th highest sack conversion rate this season. Paye is another strong DL2 play this week.
SIT: Jeffery Simmons, Tennessee Titans, DL23
Jefferey Simmons is arguably one of the best DT’s in the league and for IDP, “so how can you sit him?”. This boils down to his ankle injury that held him out of week 10 and the injuries to other pass-rushers. These things have truly limited Simmons upside the last 4 weeks. We have seen his pass-rush grade drop, his 4 lowest pass-rush grades in a game have all come over the last 4 weeks and his 3 of his worst pressure performances as well. Now, they are supposed to get Denico Autry back this week which should help a bit, but the matchup against the LA Chargers is not ideal either. They are tied for 10th lowest pressure rate and tied for the 2nd best sack conversion rate allowed. I can see Simmons still being a needed play in DT-required leagues, but I would lower expectations and in straight DL terms, he would be a low-end DL3 for me this week.
START: Jack Sanborn, Chicago Bears, LB35
Jack Sanborn is one of those darling waiver wire adds for IDP teams late in the season and as such, he feels like a high-end LB2 every week at this point. He has delivered a MINIMUM of 7 solo tackles every week, since week 9 when he stepped in for Roquan Smith. He has 3 of those 5 games with at least one play behind the line of scrimmage too. And the sprinkles on top of this Sanborn sundae? He is at a full 100% snaps the last two weeks as well. They are not taking him off the field and you should not be taking him out of your lineup. He is a high-end LB2.
START: Zaire Franklin, Indianapolis Colts, LB36
Zaire Franklin was a fun story to start the year with the injuries and uncertainties with the his LB running mates, Shaq Leonard and Bobbye Okereke. But he has played 100% of the snaps in all but 1 game (96% in week 10), had 8+ combined tackles in all but 2 games (weeks 7 and 9), and had a play behind the line of scrimmage in 8 of the 13 games this year. You may not be sold on Zaire for 2023 and the Colts (I personally am) but you cannot tell me you haven’t seen enough from Zaire this year to consider him in your top 24 LBs. He should be a strong LB2 this week.
SIT: Devin Lloyd, Jacksonville Jaguars, LB29
Devin Lloyd was the second LB drafted in the 2022 draft class and a first round pick and as such, came in with a lot of hype. He showed early flashes of production, for both NFL and IDP, and got everyone excited about what he could be. However, down the stretch he began to fade and Chad Muma took advantage of this opportunity and balled out. Muma was out last week and Lloyd was put back into the a 3-down role alongside Foyesade but Muma with a limited practice on Wednesday and an ankle injury like his tends to see 1-2 weeks and then return to play. I would be worried about Lloyd’s ability to pull a heavy snap count and would not have a high-level of confidence for him as an LB3. He would be a low-end LB4 at this point.
START: Andrew Adams, Tennessee Titans, DB138
This is a REAL deep shot with Andrew Adams, but this is the time of the year you may need that type of hail mary for your matchup, so let’s dig in. Adams has been relatively average in his tackle efficiency for a safety at 9%, only 1 INT, no fumbles forced or recovered, and his snap count is a little below ideal at 81% on the season. So why Adams this week? He has been very efficient in gathering up all his tackles in coverage this year with 75% of his tackles coming not in run support and the second most pass-happy team in the league, LA Chargers, are set to provide him all those chances. He has shown us the ability to pile up tackles with 10 total tackle games this year with one last week against Jacksonville. Adams is a low-end DB3 this week.
START: Marcus Jones, New England Patriots, DB70
Marcus Jones may have snuck onto people’s radars in week 11 with his game-winning punt return for a TD against the New York Jets in their 10-3 win. If not then, then week 13 he got on the offensive side of the ball and took a a screen pass 40+ yards to the house for a receiving TD. And now this last week he stepped up with an injury to the current outside CB, Jack Jones, while playing the Cardinals and delivered with 7 solos, an assisted tackle, an INT, and two PDs. Assuming your league accounts for all of these types of scoring for all positions, Marcus is a beautiful amalgamation of fantasy football production. The real question is though, will he be the starting outside corner this week? With Jack Jones a DNP on Wednesday and how quickly he was ruled out of the game on Monday night and it being a shorter week then, I’d say Marcus is in line for another start and a chance to roll up a very full box score. Marcus is a strong DB3 and a high-end CB2 in cornerback required leagues.
SIT: Jalen Thompson, Arizona Cardinals, DB21
Jalen Thompson burst onto the IDP scene last year with 120+ combined tackles. This year he is on pace to just hit 90 over a 17 game pace. Jalen went from 49.4% of his snaps in the sweet spot over all of 2021 to 43% of his time in the same spot. Not a major drop off, but enough to cause some inconsistencies in his tackle production and now this week he gets the Denver Broncos who will most likely have Brett Rypien and an offense that has spent most of the season struggling with Wilson will most likely have an even tougher time with Rypien under center. Fewer and shorter drives for the Broncos will cause an overall reduction for Thompson this week too. Thompson would be a low-end DB3 for me at this time.
