Week 10 Street FA Report

Updated: November 9th 2019

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 50% of RSO league that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer 1 player that is owned in <10% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Add of the Week

Zach Pascal, WR – IND (Owned 46.5%)

Week 9: 5 Rec/76 yards, 1 TD

T.Y. Hilton is going to be out for what is being reported as a month so everyone should be signing up to acquire Zach Pascal for the rest of the fantasy regular season. With Hilton out last week Pascal played 92% of the team’s snaps and had just under 19PPR points with backup Brian Hoyer in for most of the game. He is the top option for however long Hilton is out and the Colts play the Dolphins next week. He’s going to be a WR2 option in a week of heavy receiver byes. Don’t be cheap, empty your cap space for Pascal.

Suggested Bid: $10,000,000 (or 70% of your cap space)

RB Add

J.D. McKissic, RB – DET (Owned 29%)

Week 9: 4 Car/32 yards, 3 Rec/40 yards, 1 TD

It was probably overblown that Ty Johnson was going to have a major role replacing Kerryon Johnson but 10 points in two weeks is worse than even the biggest skeptics would have predicted. The Lions seem to be reverting back to their gameplans of the early 2010s where they let Matthew Stafford drop back and throw it all game, mixing in a run here and there just to keep defenses honest. This bodes well for J.D. McKissic who acts primarily as the receiving back for Detroit. The Lions have above average RB matchups against Dallas (17th) and Washington (25th) bookended by two games against the suddenly spiraling Chicago Bears (24th) for the remainder of the fantasy regular season. If you are hampered by injuries and byes McKissic is a strong Hail Mary play for those truly desperate.

Suggested Bid: $1,500,000

WR Add

Adam Humphries, WR – TEN (Owned 42%)

Week 9: 4 Rec/65 yards

The Titans have shown faith in Ryan Tannehill as a passer since taking over the starting job in week 7. He is averaging 20PPG and 34 pass attempts over three (3) weeks which has opened up the viability of guys like A.J. Brown and Adam Humphries as fantasy receivers. The latter is available in just over half the leagues so he is more than likely an option for you to grab this week for a spot start. Humphries hasn’t put up the numbers that he was having at the end of last season but compared to how he started this season with Marcus Mariota (5.9 vs. 8 PPG) things are at least trending in the right direction. The Titans should be in “keep up” mode against the Chiefs in week 10 so there is plenty of opportunities for passes to be spread around once again.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

TE Add

Ryan Griffin, TE – NYJ (Owned 11%)

Week 9: 6 Rec/50 yards

Everyone has been waiting for Chris Herndon to return to action after he was suspended for the first four (4) games and then has missed the last month with an injury. Meanwhile, journeyman Ryan Griffin has put together back-to-back solid performances with 35.5PPR points and may have made enough of an impression to keep his role as the Jets TE1. There is no guarantee that Herndon will be back from his injury soon and even if he does hamstring injuries have a funny way of flaring up at any point during a game forcing him back to the sideline without notice. The Jets are a team that has to throw late and come back often in games and with Le’Veon Bell’s recent injury news (more on that in a second) Griffin may find himself as Sam Darnold’s primary option in the red zone.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

Sleeper Add (<10%)

Bilal Powell, RB – NYJ (Owned 5%)

Week 9: 2 Car/16 yards

The Jets have been using Le’Veon Bell as much as a bell cow can be used in 2019 so usually, his backups’ fantasy value would be next to zero at any given time. But he suddenly was added to the injury report on Tuesday and the team promoted Josh Adams from their practice squad which raised some eyebrows about Bell’s health. The team has stated that they did this more so that Adams wouldn’t be claimed by another team but they have already ruled Bell out for Wednesday practice so call me skeptical. Most people will rush to add Ty Montgomery if Bell was to miss time but in the limited amount of snaps that Bell hasn’t been on the field it has been Bilal Powell not Montgomery as the second option. There likely would be a committee between the two in absence of Bell but Powell will be much cheaper and more readily available in leagues. Stash him away for the weekend until we find out the full story from the Jets on Le’Veon Bell’s status.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

Early RSO Contracts: RBs

Updated: August 6th 2017

Knowing the types of contracts given out by other fantasy teams can give the alert reader a big advantage when your own RSO free agency auction arrives.  Your league settings and available players will have a big impact on the size of contracts given out at various positions, but looking at the relative contracts within position groups provides some useful information. This week I move to one of the most volatile positions in fantasy football, running back, where increased injury rate and player turnover make long-term decisions extremely difficult.

Top of the Market

No shock here.  Ezekiel Elliott, David Johnson, and Le’Veon Bell are the three highest paid running backs in RSO leagues and also atop the overall player salaries.  There is not much of an argument to be made about why they do not belong here.  Each is a proven game changer at the position and potential league winner capable of putting up 2,000 total yards with extraordinary potential touch volume.

The only issue which concerns me is the lengths of contracts where each is averaging nearly four years.  I do not have much of an issue with Zeke given the dominant offensive line mostly locked up with long term deals and a quarterback who was excellent as a rookie, but questions linger about his off-the-field behavior.  I am a little more skeptical of Bell and Johnson though with situations more in flux and extensive workloads which increase injury risk.  Carson Palmer and Ben Roethlisberger could retire any year moving forward with no real alternatives on the rosters leaving a possibly dicey quarterback situation for each.  Bell also has multiple suspensions, major injury issues, and is not signed to a long-term contract with Pittsburg (and will not be until after the season, if at all).

The Rookies

The rookies listed in the table all came from one auction as most rookies will go in rookie drafts instead of auction, so do not put too much stock into the results.  I believe it is a useful reminder, however, of inflated rookie prices which can occur in startup auctions.  Leonard Fournette, Joe Mixon, Christian McCaffrey, and Dalvin Cook all landed maximum term contracts in the auction with average salaries that would place each in the top-14 among running backs without playing a down in the NFL.  This is just a reminder not to go overboard with rookies in your auction.

An Important Tier Break

For those owners who like to invest in two heavy volume running backs for your starters, remember the name Lamar Miller.  He is the last player on the list before a major tier drop, coming off the board as the RB15 in average salary.  The main reason for this big tier break is certainty of volume.  Forgetting the rookies, I have every back priced above Isaiah Crowell projected for 270+ touches over the course of a full season.  I do not have any other back projected for over 250 touches.  The primary problem for these other backs centers around 1) uncertainty of role (example: Spencer Ware) or 2) playing on projected bad teams limiting workload (example: Carlos Hyde).

Top Buys

C.J. Anderson heads my list of top running back buys this season.   The Denver back is virtually assured the the lion’s share of carries with last year’s bust Devontae Booker (already injured), late rounder De’Angelo Henderson, and former superstar Jamaal Charles (still returning from injury and on the roster bubble) as the only competition.  Anderson averaged 18 touches per contest through 7 games last season before injury ended his year and was the RB12 during that time.  The Broncos improved their offensive line in the offseason and will want to rely heavily on the run game no matter who ends up starting at quarterback.  Anderson is a steal as the RB26.

Bilal Powell (RB35), Danny Woodhead (RB37), and Theo Riddick (RB42) provide cheap useful starters, particularly in PPR leagues, for those teams taking a wide receiver-heavy approach.  Each has standalone value and a lot of upside should the other committee back on their respective team go down with injury.

Top Avoids

The narrative surrounding Ty Montgomery (RB22) has amused me to no end this offseason.   Montgomery started 12 games, including three in the playoffs, once bruiser Eddie Lacy went down with injury.  The converted wide receiver rushed for more than 11 times once and accumulated more than 60 rushing yards once in his 12 starts.  Those games were with James Starks (likely done in the league) and Christine Michael (who has been cut more times than we can count) as the only real competition for touches.  Green Bay was even giving Aaron Ripkowski touches.  Now the story is that Montgomery will take over a far bigger role after the Packers drafted multiple running backs with far more talent than last year’s backs? Montgomery is the classic perceived “great situation” case boosted by small sample efficiency stats which were propped up on two games against a Chicago defense decimated by injuries.

I am a big fan of C.J. Prosise and the multi-dimensional skill-set he brings.  I am not paying starter money on a short-term contract for a player likely needing multiple items going his way to take over the primary back role.  Grab Prosise on a cheaper longer-term contract if possible in your league as a nice lottery ticket.

 

Average RSO Running Back Contracts


Bio:  Bernard Faller has degrees in engineering and economics.  He currently lives in Las Vegas and enjoys athletics, poker, and fantasy football in his free time.  Send your questions and comments (both good and bad) on Twitter @BernardFaller1.

More Analysis by Bernard Faller

2017 Top 25s: QBs and RBs

Updated: July 16th 2017

Since RSO has rolled over to 2017, now’s the perfect time to revisit your rosters and start planning for the next season!

Do you have any players on your team that warrant a franchise tag?  Is it time to shop a player who’s 2016 didn’t meet your expectations and now burdens you with a high salary contract?  My “way too early” PPR rankings, known as my 2017 Top 25s, are here to help with those decisions!

In part 1 of my 2017 Top 25s, I’ll explore the quarterback and running back positions:

 

Top 25 QBs for 2017

Aaron Rodgers is in a tier of his own, making him an elite asset in Superflex and 2QB leagues. Tony Romo and Jimmy Garoppolo are two of the most intriguing names on this list. Over the next few months, we should find out where they’ll play in 2017. If either lands in Denver or Houston, expect their values to rise even higher up this list.

Top 25 RBs for 2017

Le’Veon Bell, Ezekiel Elliott, and David Johnson form the elite trio of RBs that should command the highest AAV (average annual value) of any players in free agency auctions. Rookies Dalvin Cook and Leonard Fournette could be RB1s in the right situation. Coming off major injuries, veteran RBs Jamaal Charles and Adrian Peterson just missed the top 25. If they appear healthy as the season approaches and have promised roles, both could be underrated RB2s that will be undervalued in many free agency auctions.

My recommendation

Take an hour this weekend and send out personal emails to all of your fellow owners. Get the trade conversations started because they likely won’t come knocking down your door to acquire one of these players you’re looking to vanquish from your roster. Explain what you’re looking to accomplish, who interests you on their team, and provide an idea of how a potential deal could be reached. If you’re in an active league, you’ll be surprised at the quality of responses you receive.

I followed this recommendation last year, revamped one of my teams almost from scratch, and ended up winning the league.  Have a few minutes?  Read my article on Pressing the Reset Button to find out more about how this strategy can work for you.


Bio: An avid fan of all things NFL, Dave has been playing fantasy football since 1999.  Though Dave participates in all types of fantasy football including redraft and daily, he prefers keeper and dynasty leagues as talent evaluation and scouting are integral components of each.  Follow him on Twitter @DaveSanders_RSO

More Analysis by Dave Sanders