2018 NFL Mock Draft: Part IV, Picks 49-64

By Bob Cowper

Updated: April 11th 2018

Are you starting to suffer from #DraftTwitter mock draft fatigue? Honestly, I am. There are so many mock drafts out there that I’ve actually found myself tuning out and avoiding those tweets, articles, blog posts, etc. Instead, I started to work on my own NFL mock draft. Mocking is a great way to force yourself to do some research and make qualitative decisions about specific players. It’s also the best way to define your own opinions on the players, rather than relying on the #DraftTwitter groupthink.

Here’s the method to my madness… I started out by creating positional rankings and tiers for each position, concentrating on players who could potentially be drafted in the Top 100. Next, I consulted my preferred team needs resource which was a community effort on the r/NFL_Draft subreddit. The spreadsheet collects info about primary and secondary team needs, scheme, draft strategy and character risk tolerance. While it may not be perfect, I think it’s more useful than most similar sites and is far better than I could compile on my own. Next, I referred to Our Lads depth charts which are my favorite (you should also bookmark their glossary). For some teams I also visited Spotrac to get invaluable information about contracts and free agency. To keep track of my picks, I am using the mock draft spreadsheet created by Reddit user Mbrr1214, to which I made a few slight tweaks. Team names are color coded for quick recognition; colored pick numbers correspond to the pick’s original owner.

A few notes before we get started…

This mock draft was compiled predominantly on March 30-31 with some edits in the following days. It will be posted in pieces over the three weeks leading up to the NFL Draft so please keep in mind the dates in which it was first created should there be any breaking news in the interim.
My knowledge of offensive skill players far outpaces that of offensive linemen and defensive players. That’s not to say I haven’t seen the other players play, it’s just that my analysis is more shallow. I covered many of these linemen and defensive players during the season and during my bowl previews but I have admittedly not done a deep study.
I did not include any trades which can obviously turn this mock draft on its head. Personally, I think mock drafts that include trades are a cop-out and a way for the author to skirt around tough decisions. Real GMs may not always have the option of trading out of a pick and must make a decision on whether they go BPA (Best Player Available) or reach to fill a team need. For a mock draft author to say “well, Quenton Nelson is the best player on the board, let’s trade this pick to a team that needs a guard” is missing the point of the exercise.

What Did I Learn?

I’ve done mock drafts before but never a full two rounder with “honorable mentions.” I walked away with a few insights:

More quarterbacks will be drafted than you think and they will be drafted earlier than you hoped.
Solid offensive tackle prospects are becoming less common and, as such, teams will have to reach for them nearly as often as they do for quarterbacks.
If I had to build my own team, I would rarely use a top 75 pick on a running back or wide receiver. Offensive skill players, aside from the quarterbacks, fell much further down my mock than anticipated.

Honorable Mentions

These players did not get selected in my mock but I had originally listed them as potential targets when I started my research. Since I considered them while working on this project, I thought I should share their names as they could be some of the top targets in Rounds 3 and 4. They are ordered by position then by last name – they are not ranked.

Welcome to the 2018 NFL Mock Draft…

#64 – Browns – Kemoko Turay, EDGE, Rutgers

Homer pick alert. With my last pick in my two-round mock, and the first one that you’re reading, I have the Browns taking Kemoko Turay. As a Rutgers season ticket holder, I have been both enticed by and disappointed by Turay. His blocked field goal against Michigan in 2014 remains one of my favorite football moments ever experienced in person at the stadium. The “Kemoko Dragon” performed well at the Senior Bowl and became a darling of one of my favorite draft resources: NDT Scouting. NDT had numerous pieces highlighting Turay around the Senior Bowl but I feel like his name has fizzled a bit as of late. Turay’s career stats are marred by injuries and ineffectiveness but he has raw ability that teams covet. I use the word raw on purpose because he definitely needs some work. His senior season at Rutgers was a pretty good one: 60 tackles, 6 tackles for loss, 3 sacks. Edge rusher is not a position of immediate need for the Browns, but when you five of the first 64 picks, you can afford a luxury pick or two. The depth chart ahead of him is why I would love to see Turay taken by the Browns. He can come in and learn while he bulks up. Given time, I think that Turay will be a starting end in the league.

#63 – Patriots – Kyle Lauletta, QB, Richmond

Rumors are swirling that the Patriots might take a quarterback late in the first round. I think it’s more likely that they take one here at pick #63 (mostly because I doubt they hold onto both of those late first rounders). If the Patriots pull the trigger in the first round, it would be for Mason Rudolph, whereas if they wait until the second I think it would be Kyle Lauletta. Lauletta played at Richmond in the Colonial Athletic Association in the FCS. Lauletta threw for 3,737 yards and 28 TDs last season, adding 4 rushing TDs. Lauletta has a career completion percentage of 63.5% and improved his accuracy each year as the starter. He does throw too many interceptions though, 35 over the last three seasons. My first look at Lauletta came in the lead up to the Senior Bowl when I read Benjamin Solak’s “Contextualized Quarterbacking” piece about the Senior Bowl quarterbacks. He went on to win the MVP award at the Senior Bowl, moving himself up draft boards. I went back and re-read Lauletta’s section and two words confirmed for me that the Patriots would target him: “mechanically pure.” In case you were wondering, the Pats took Jimmy Garoppolo, an FCS quarterback who thew too many interceptions but had a quick release, with pick #62 in 2014.

#62 – Vikings – Braden Smith, G, Auburn

The most immediate need that I identified for the Vikings was their offensive line. I wanted to address the line with both of their first two picks, hopefully ensuring that new QB Kirk Cousins can last for the duration of his fully guaranteed contract. Smith is my highest rated lineman on the board at this point so it was an easy pick. He was an AP All-American in 2017 and starred at the combine. Smith came in as the biggest guard (6’6″ and 315lbs) in the class. He also had the highest vertical jump and came in second in the bench press and broad jump. He’s big enough and athletic enough to hold his own across the line so he could prove to be a valuable addition to the Vikings offense.

#61 – Jaguars – Michael Gallup, WR, Colorado St

I was surprised when the Jaguars let Allen Robinson leave in free agency and then cut Allen Hurns. I figured they would at least hold onto one of them. Instead, they decided to re-sign Marqise Lee and add Donte Moncrief from the Colts. Moncrief is now the highest paid receiver on the team, but they must not be too convinced because they only gave him a one year deal. Michael Gallup has an interesting personal story which I wrote about a few weeks ago. He had numerous Power 5 scholarship offers but his test scores were not good enough so he had to go the JUCO route and then ended up at Colorado State. If he had played at a school like Missouri originally, we could be talking about the top receiver in the class. Some experts still feel that way about Gallup and trust his pedigree over his route to the pros. I like Gallup but he has a few negatives that bump him down for me. Primarily, he lacks elite measureables and is prone to losing focus. There’s a lot to like though so that seems like nit-picking. Gallup plays faster than his 4.51 forty indicates. He is good with the ball in his hands after the catch, utilizing his all-around athletic ability (he earned sixteen varsity letters in high school). I believe Gallup’s play strength is better than advertised which will be a useful trait as he adds weight for the NFL. If Lee continues to ascend as he did in 2017, and Moncrief proves he’s not a bust, the Jaguars could be looking at an under the radar receiving corps this year.

#60 – Steelers – Darius Leonard, LB, South Carolina St

Similarly to the 49ers below, the Steelers brass would not have expected to need to spend draft capital on an inside linebacker if you had asked them a few months ago. Unfortunately, though, that is the reality after Ryan Shazier’s frightening spinal injury. Shazier says he’ll play again but I think it’s safe to say that that will not be any time soon. You’re forgiven if you have never heard of Darius Leonard. Leonard is a fifth year senior from South Carolina State, a 3-7 MEAC side. I had heard the name a few months back but never did any research so I decided to watch one of his 2017 game films and a highlight reel as a quick primer. Against FCS foe NC Central, he often looked like the best player on the field, showing good speed, especially to the sideline. He is effective in coverage and plays a great QB spy because he has the quickness to shadow the passer and then meet him at the edge. Leonard tallied 100+ tackles each of the last two seasons and is an adept pass rusher despite his coverage responsibilities (20 career sacks). Leonard will likely compete with free agent signing Jon Bostic for a starting role. Bostic is on his fifth team in five years so I’d put my money on the rookie.

#59 – 49ers – Malik Jefferson, LB, Texas

The thought of the 49ers drafting a linebacker in the second round of the 2018 draft would have seemed a little crazy eleven months ago. Fast forward though and it’s possible that San Fran needs to plan for a future without MLB Reuben Foster. Foster was arrested twice this offseason and missed six games due to various injuries in 2017. When researching his off-field issues, I also came across a story about him getting sent home from the combine last year which I had forgotten all about. Jefferson would be a good pick for the 49ers because he could fill the MLB slot until Foster returns from an anticipated suspension. Jefferson’s best position, according to Charlie Campbell and Lance Zierlein, may end up being at WLB. The projected starter at that spot for the 49ers is Malcolm Smith who missed all of 2017 with a torn pectoral. Either way, whether it’s in the middle or on the weak side, Jefferson will prove valuable from Day One.

#58 – Falcons – Tim Settle, DT, Virginia Tech

This feels a little early for Settle because I had at least one other DT ranked above him, however, he fits a more immediate need for the Falcons at NT. The Falcons signed Dontari Poe to a one year deal in 2017 and let him move on to division rival Carolina this offseason. Settle is big at 6’3″ and 329lbs and would be a space eater for the Falcons. Settle is a former 5-star recruit who was ranked by ESPN as the 19th best overall recruit in his class and the second best at the position. In college, he never really “settled” in. He’s a redshirt sophomore so maturity and experience are a concern, as is his low level of production. Settle has just four career sacks, all coming in 2017, and 53 career tackles. The Falcons are a pretty complete team so I think it’s best for them to address a need, even if it may be a bit of a reach.

#57 – Titans – Taven Bryan, DT/DE, Florida

Any time somebody draws comparisons to JJ Watt, you should take note. When researching Bryan, I came across multiple sources running with the comp, including the NFL Research Twitter account. Bryan’s production continued to increase in 2017, when he finished with career highs in snaps, sacks, quarterback hits and hurries. Bryan played as a DT in a 4-3 at Florida and will likely play DE in 3-4 sets with the Titans. I expect the Titans to use multiple sets though so Bryan could move inside when they switch to a 4-3. I also envision Bryan playing inside of the 3-4 on passing downs to give offenses a different look and increase pass rush pressure. Bryan blew away the DT class with his explosiveness and agility at the combine, leading in four drills: vertical jump, broad jump, shuttle and 3-cone.

#56 – Bills – Billy Price, G/C, Ohio State

This is Buffalo’s fourth pick in the first two rounds. Earlier I have them address quarterback, wide receiver and linebacker. With #56, I wanted the Bills to make a value pick for the future. If Billy Price didn’t tear a pectoral muscle at the combine, he would have been a late first round prospect. Price can play at either guard position or center, as he did for the Buckeyes, but I’d expect him to find a home as an NFL center. Sadly, starter Eric Wood was forced to retire after last season due to an injury so the Bills could use a long term solution at the position. They did sign Russell Bodine from Cincinnati last month but it’s just a two year deal with a potential out after 2018. That would be perfect timing to give Price time to recover before becoming the permanent starter in 2019.

#55 – Panthers – Anthony Miller, WR, Memphis

Miller is my favorite player in this draft class. His measureables don’t stand up to others in the class, which is why we find him at #55 and not at the top of the second, but I’m not deterred. Miller’s release is superb and he makes the spectacular catch look routine with excellent body control. In addition to his playmaking ability, Miller has repeatedly impressed me with his toughness and determination. There were times when he willed the Tigers to comeback or to victory, often exhausted or banged up. He has the versatility to line up anywhere and was Pro Football Focus’ sixth ranked slot receiver in 2017. With Devin Funchess and Torrey Smith on the field with him this season, I would anticipate seeing Miller in the slot. In terms of Miller’s long term projection, this fit works well because I doubt that either Smith or Funchess stick around long.

#54 – Chiefs – Josh Sweat, EDGE, Florida State

I was of two minds when considering the Chiefs first pick of the 2018 draft (they traded their first rounder in the deal to land Pat Mahomes last year). My first thought was that the Chiefs should be cautious, opting for a sure thing since they are missing a first rounder. My second thought was that because they were missing that first rounder that they should be more aggressive and make a high risk, high reward pick. My id won out and here we have Josh Sweat. Sweat is a complicated prospect because he has a history of knee injuries that make him a risk. Those injuries though are the only reason that Sweat would be available to the Chiefs at this pick. A player with Sweat’s combine measureables (4.53 40 yard dash at 6’4″ and 251lbs) and production (29 career tackles for loss and 14.5 career sacks) would not normally be available here.

#53 – Bills – Josey Jewell, LB, Iowa

It’s startling how little draft capital the Bills have invested in the linebacker position. Only two of the seven backers currently on the roster were drafted, the rest were all college free agents. Those two who were drafted, Matt Milano and Tanner Vallejo, were fifth and sixth rounders last year. The Bills drafted the position this high twice before in recent memory, in 2013 and 2016, but both Reggie Ragland and Kiko Alonso were traded away. Jewell is the next up in my linebacker rankings and he would be a good fit at MLB in the Bills system. It’s fun reading scouting reports on Jewell and seeing how the author tries to tiptoe around the fact that Jewell is simply unathletic. However, he is quite productive: he recorded 124 or more tackles each of the last three years. In his write up about Jewell, Matt Miller said that “all those hyperbolic cliches like ‘tackling machine’ actually apply to Jewell.” If history is any indication, Jewell may not be long for Buffalo but I’m confident that he would make an impact before his subsequent trade.

#52 – Ravens – Martinas Rankin, T/C, Mississippi State

The Ravens offensive line ranked 18th in 2017 according to Pro Football Focus. Perhaps that should come as a surprise given that the Ravens spend the 28th most, on a per player average, on the offensive line. The team spends even less at center where they rank 29th in spending. Rankin is a versatile lineman who played tackle in college but could end up playing center in the pros. The Bulldogs tried him out at center last Spring but kept him at tackle instead. Drafting a player like Rankin would give the Ravens a lot of flexibility and could help solidify the line both at tackle and center, wherever the immediate need is.

#51 – Lions – James Daniels, C, Iowa

The Lions need a center and James Daniels is a damn good one. Last year’s starting center, Travis Swanson, has signed with the Jets. The Lions did sign G/C Wesley Johnson, ironically from the Jets but he doesn’t really satisfy the team need. Johnson is a former tackle who moved inside for the NFL, he’s not a true center. Neither is guard Graham Glasgow who would project as the starting center for Detroit this year if they don’t address the position. While doing some research on Daniels, I came across this highlight where he owns a BC linebacker and I couldn’t help but watch it a number of times. Daniels came in smaller than some of the other top center prospects but he showed his supreme agility by owning the competition in the shuttle and 3-cone.

#50 – Cowboys – D.J. Moore, WR, Maryland

There’s been a number of rumors that the Cowboys are considering a wide receiver with their first pick, specifically Calvin Ridley I think that would be a mistake, even though Ridley is my highest rated receiver, and sincerely hope they continue to add to their already-strong offensive line instead. I’d much rather see the Cowboys wait, full disclosure that I’m a fan, and grab a receiver at this pick. I have Anthony Miller ranked higher in my rankings at the moment but I think that Moore is the more likely selection for the ‘Boys. Per WalterFootball.com, Moore has met with the Cowboys on multiple occasions. Moore was not on my watch list to start the season but by the end of it he had worked his way into my positional rankings. Moore is quick (4.42 speed) and explosive (first among WRs in the broad jump, second in the vertical) and runs with purpose once he has the ball in his hands. He had awful quarterback play at Maryland so the fact that he performed as well as he did at times is impressive. In my preview of Moore, I called him a “trick play master” which could come in handy when the Cowboys offense becomes predictably run-heavy.

#49 – Colts – Nick Chubb, RB, Georgia

I believe there’s zero chance that the Colts head into training camp with just Marlon Mack, Christine Michael, Josh Ferguson, Robert Turbin and Matt Jones competing for running back reps. They are a lock to add a running back in the first few rounds. Mack should be the favorite to come out of that group but I don’t think he’s able to be a bellcow and none of the journeyman inspire confidence. Chubb was pegged as the top back of this class years ago as a freshman but he has since fallen down the rankings due to an ACL injury and sharing the spotlight with Sony Michel. I still prefer Chubb to Michel as a pro prospect but I do admit that Chubb’s running style likely means he’ll serve a shorter career. Chubb had three 1,000+ yard seasons and averaged 6.3 yards per carry over 47 games. His 44 career rushing TDs are fourth most in the SEC since 1956, per Sports-Reference. Chubb is not a receiving back but that’s okay because that’s Mack’s strength. The biggest knock on Chubb is his ACL injury from 2016. I’m not that concerned because he returned and completed two full seasons since then, even if he has lost some of his pop. Having a formidable running back duo will help Andrew Luck get back into form because the team will not have to rely solely on him to move the offense.

Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…

Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
Film: 2018 NFL Draft Database by @CalhounLambeau, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, ndtscouting.com
Draft history: drafthistory.com
Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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The Watch List: Bowl Game Previews, Part V

By Bob Cowper

Updated: December 30th 2017

Welcome to The Watch List, a resource to help RSO owners identify the storylines, players and matchups from the college game that deserve your attention. To view my weekly picks, follow me on Twitter @robertfcowper. During the college bowl season, The Watch List will continue to update you on who is fantasy relevant and worth your draft capital next year. Note: times listed are Eastern.

Friday, Dec. 29

Hyundai Sun Bowl, Arizona State (7-5) vs. #24 North Carolina State (8-4), 2 p.m. (CBS)

Arizona State: 40th scoring offense, 49th passing offense, 50th rushing offense; 88th scoring defense, 119th passing defense, 82nd rushing defense
NC State: 47th scoring offense, 29nd passing offense, 51st rushing offense; 50th scoring defense, 97th passing defense, 29th rushing defense

Both of these teams have endured some coaching carousel drama over the last month. NC State’s Dave Doeren was an early target in Tennessee’s never-ending coach search but ultimately he spurned the Vols to stick with the Wolfpack. Doeren has NC State playing in their fourth straight bowl and should the team stay competitive next year he’ll probably be in the running for an even bigger job at the end of 2018. Arizona State made the odd, in my opinion, hire of Herm Edwards. Herm is a master motivator for sure but Herm has not been involved with the college game since 1989. Even more odd is that outgoing coach Todd Graham is sticking around to coach the bowl.

Arizona State’s offense is led by two NFL hopefuls in senior RB Kalen Ballage and sophomore WR N’Keal Harry. Ballage is a big back at 6’3″ and 230lbs. His size concerns me because few backs have been successful in the NFL at that height. Since 2010, only four backs have measured 6’2″ and 225lbs or bigger at the combine: Derrick Henry, Matt Jones, Dominique Brown and James Wilder. Henry has potential but he has not yet earned the starting role in Tennessee and teams may be hesitant to roll the dice on a big back like Ballage. Ballage has not handled a full load in any of his four seasons but he is a productive pass catcher (44 receptions in 2016, 19 this year). His high number of carries came this year with 153. He has under 2,000 yards in his career. I’m just not able to get that excited about him, honestly. I have read comparisons to David Johnson but I think that is crazy: Johnson was more than twice as productive in most stat categories in college. Ballage will get drafted in fantasy leagues but it won’t be by me. The other big name for the Sun Devils is WR N’Keal Harry. Harry is not draft eligible so it’s not worth a deep dive yet but you will hear his name constantly next season. He has elite height (6’4″) and has been very productive as a young receiver on a mediocre team (career line of 131-1,659-12). Add Harry to your 2019 short list now!

North Carolina State has three draft prospects that I will touch on. First and foremost is DE Bradley Chubb. I mentioned Chubb a few times in the middle of the season when NC State was looking like it could challenge Clemson for the conference title. He has 25 sacks and 54.5 tackles for loss in his career. Chubb is relentless and should be a Top 5 pick in the NFL Draft. Sadly, he’s banged up and may miss the bowl game. On offense, QB Ryan Finley and TE Jaylen Samuels are the two to watch. Samuels is one of my favorite players of the season because he transcends position. He is listed as a TE but he’s really too small to play the position in the NFL. Instead he’ll probably factor in as a hybrid RB, FB, TE who lines up all over the field. To give you an idea of Samuels’ versatility, look at his 2017 stats: 68 receptions, 547 receiving yards, 4 rushing TDs, 72 rushing attempts, 387 rushing yards and 11 rushing TDs. Samuels was the only player in the FBS with more than 65 receptions and rushing attempts. More so than any other prospect, Samuels’ 2018 fantasy value relies heavily on his landing spot. If he gets drafted by a team with a creative offense he could turn into the ultimate third down and short yardage weapon. Finley is a late round quarterback prospect that is hard for me to get excited about. He should add a few pounds to his 6’4″ frame because he’s listed at just 210lbs and may be lighter. He’s efficient and does not turn the ball over often. Finley does have another year of eligibility so we could see him come back for another season to improve his draft stock. WalterFootball.com has him as QB16 for 2018 while NFLDraftScout.com has him as QB14 in his 2019 class. If he can show a more prolific side to his game in 2018, he could become a mid-rounder next year.

Even if it weren’t for the Sun Devils coaching distractions, I would have gone for NC State because Arizona State’s defense is so bad. Prediction: North Carolina State

Goodyear Cotton Bowl Classic, #8 USC (11-2) vs. #5 Ohio State (11-2), 8:30 p.m. (ESPN)

USC: 24th scoring offense, 19th passing offense, 36th rushing offense; 61st scoring defense, 98th passing defense, 57th rushing defense
Ohio State: 5th scoring offense, 28th passing offense, 13th rushing offense; 22nd scoring defense, 18th passing defense, 7th rushing defense

I don’t care what the name of this bowl is, it’s the Rose Bowl to me. I hate the fact that with the new CFP we lose the historical tradition of some of the biggest games. The folks running the Cotton Bowl got themselves a doozy of a matchup with two Power 5 conference champions and a slew of NFL prospects. Covering each and every one of the draft hopefuls in this game is impossible – I will touch on a few but by no means is this a comprehensive list.

Let’s start with Ohio State. By now, we have all heard and participated in the debate about whether or not Ohio State should have been in the playoff. I fear that topic will be prominent during the telecast and will overshadow some of the great players on the field for the Buckeyes. QB JT Barrett improved on a number of stats this season but probably hurt his chances of playing quarterback in the NFL after poor performances in three big games (against Iowa, Michigan [before the injury], and Wisconsin). I don’t have an opinion yet on whether Barrett should enter the draft process as a QB but my gut says he will. The RB duo of freshman JK Dobbins and redshirt sophomore Mike Weber was very productive (nearly 2,000 combined rushing yards and 17 TDs). Dobbins took advantage of an early, and lingering, injury to Weber to steal the lead role. If Weber comes out for the 2018 draft, I think his stock is less now than it was four months ago. He could return but it’s clear he won’t be the first choice back. Maybe he transfers, sits out a year, and dominates at a lower level Power 5 school in 2019. I listed Weber as my RB13 in November so if he does come out he’s a mid-rounder at best. The strength of Ohio State’s team lies outside of the offensive skill positions. Drafttek.com has six Buckeyes ranked in their Top 10 NFL draft prospects from the Big Ten: three defensive linemen (Sam Hubbard, Tyquan Lewis, Dante Booker), one corner (Denzel Ward) and two offensive linemen (Jamarco Jones and Billy Price). I’ll venture a guess that four of the six go in the first round (Ward, Hubbard, Price, Jones) with the other two following on Day Two. The best prospect on the defense, sophomore DE Nick Bosa, is not yet draft eligible but he’d be a first rounder too if he were.

The biggest name on USC’s team is QB Sam Darnold but he has really hurt his draft stock this season. Darnold was a walking turnover in 2017: 12 INTs and 10 fumbles (7 of which were lost). Elite quarterback prospects just can’t turn the ball over that often; for comparison, Rosen (13) and Mayfield (5) combine for fewer turnovers than Darnold. Darnold is only a redshirt sophomore so he is young and still has two more years of eligibility should he decide to return to college for further seasoning. Ultimately, I think Darnold comes out and is a Top 3 pick because of the potential the he has shown. Despite his turnovers, the yardage, scoring and efficiency are all above average. He’s also an above average runner with enough speed to earn first downs when flushed from the pocket. What Darnold has that doesn’t show up in the box score is his confidence and swagger. If I had to pick one college QB to lead my team in a comeback, I would take Darnold because he wouldn’t shrink from the challenge. One negative: Darnold’s throwing motion. I noticed this in the offseason and plan on watching more film before the draft to see if it’s improved. Darnold’s favorite receiver is WR Deontay Burnett. Burnett is undersized (6’0″ and 170lbs) so he likely won’t garner early round attention but I’ve raved about him numerous times this season. A close size comp for Burnett would be Travis Benjamin who was a 4th round pick back in 2012. Burnett was good, but not great, this season going for 74-975-9. I started the season low on RB Ronald Jones but I came around by mid-September. He is just so quick and agile that it’s almost not fair to defenders. I was previously concerned about his size but no longer. Even though he missed a game due to injury, Jones totaled 1,486 yards and 18 rushing TDs; he added 13 receptions for 165 yards and another score. After a down game against Notre Dame, Jones ended the season strong with over 800 yards and 10 TDs in the last five games. He’s fun to watch and I am so happy he won’t be skipping the Cotton Bowl. On defense, the Trojans have a number of prospects including Cameron Smith and Porter Gustin. Gustin missed most of the season, and is doubtful for the bowl, but could get drafted based on a solid sophomore season if he comes out (68 tackles, 13 tackles for loss, 5.5 sacks). Smith is a prototypical MLB who has 263 career tackles and has been a big part of the USC defense for three years; according to WalterFootball.com he is looking at a mid-round grade.

Ohio State’s defense will be the best unit on the field and is strong enough to limit Darnold and Jones. I expect the Buckeyes to win in a game where they beat USC in time of possession. Prediction: Ohio State

Saturday, Dec. 30

TaxSlayer Bowl, Louisville (8-4) vs. #23 Mississippi State (8-4), 12 p.m. (ESPN)

Louisville: 13th scoring offense, 15th passing offense, 14th rushing offense; 71st scoring defense, 77th passing defense, 52nd rushing defense
Mississippi State: 38th scoring offense, 109th passing offense, 15th rushing offense; 24th scoring defense, 13th passing defense, 24th rushing defense

As far as the NFL Draft prospects go this matchup is all about Louisville, let’s touch on Mississippi State first though. QB Nick Fitzgerald could be an interesting study in 2019 but I don’t think he has enough of a resume to warrant coming out for 2018, especially after a season-ending ankle injury sustained on Thanksgiving. NFLDraftScout.com has him as the QB6 in his 2019 draft class. Fitzgerald will need to improve on his efficiency in 2018 because he doesn’t complete enough passes (55.6%) and throws too many INTs (15:11 ratio this season). He’s a tremendous rushing threat with 33 career rushing TDs and nearly 2,500 yards but that won’t matter to scouts if he’s missing throws. The backup QB is freshman Keytaon Thompson. I don’t think I have seen any of Thompson play this season but I am intrigued by the combination of his size (6’4″ 222lbs) and rushing ability (he played in nine games this season totaling 299 yards and 3 TDs rushing). Thompson played significant snaps in the Egg Bowl vs Ole Miss after Fitzgerald went down so at least he’s not coming in cold. He rushed for 121 yards and a score but only completed 13 of his 27 passes for 195 yards. I came across the name of DB JT Gray on NDT Scouting’s website while researching potential draft prospects from Mississippi State. He has played at both linebacker and safety and his listed measureables are similar to those of Jabril Peppers who was a first rounder last year; maybe he could be a poor man’s Pepper in the late rounds. Per Pro Football Focus, Gray did not allow a single TD in coverage this year and the passer rating against him was 70.4 which is above average.

Louisville has their own DB, Jaire Alexander, who excels in those same metrics. Alexander has also shut out opposing receivers and, this is not a typo, has allowed a passer rating against of just 17.7. For comparison, a QB who had one completion for negative nine yards would have a rating of 16. Alexander allowed just five receptions on the season and ranks 5th in PFF’s “Cover Snaps per Reception” stat, meaning he is in coverage a lot and allows few receptions. Alexander declared for the 2018 draft already and is skipping the bowl so you won’t get to see him play against Mississippi State but you’ll see him playing on Sundays soon. You may be thinking to yourself, how has he not mentioned Lamar Jackson yet? You’re right I may be burying the lede but Jackson has been talked about ad nauseam on every platform this season. That includes me too: I tagged Jackson in eight of my weekly The Watch List pieces and focused on him in my preseason preview. Talk of Jackson changing position is useless, in my opinion, because Jackson will go into the NFL as a quarterback. If anything, the brief spark of Deshaun Watson this season shows NFL teams that a lightning quick deep-ball thrower with accuracy issues can still lead a team to victory. Some team will take Jackson in the first round but I don’t think I’ll be taking him in any of my fantasy drafts. Jackson’s top target is junior WR Jaylen Smith. Smith is 6’4″ and 219lbs which is great size for a receiver but it’s his speed and deep-ball ability that makes him a threat to the defense. To illustrate this, despite his size, only three of his 53 receptions came in the red zone; meanwhile he had seven receptions of 25+ yards. He totaled 873 yards and 6 TDs (he missed three games due to a wrist injury). I’m not as high on Smith as some, including our friends at Dynasty Command Center who have him as their WR5 for 2018 rookies. Jackson and Smith versus the stout Bulldog defense will be fun to watch, regardless of what you think of their NFL chances.

Defense wins championships, sure, but offense wins college bowl games. Take the Cardinals. Prediction: Louisville

AutoZone Liberty Bowl, Iowa State (7-5) vs. #20 Memphis (10-2), 12:30 p.m. (ABC)

Iowa State: 53rd scoring offense, 32nd passing offense, 112th rushing offense; 28th scoring defense, 81st passing defense, 31st rushing defense
Memphis: 2nd scoring offense, 8th passing offense, 31st rushing offense; 104th scoring defense, 123rd passing defense, 100th rushing defense

Iowa State had a whirlwind of a season. Get it? The Cyclones had a whirlwind…. okay, okay I’ll stop. Seriously though, Iowa State was a surprisingly fun team to watch this season. They had a number of interesting story lines throughout the season including 1) an up-and-coming head coach in Matt Campbell, 2) jack-of-all-trades Joel Lanning playing at both LB and QB in a number of games, 3) the continued emergence of RB David Montgomery, 4) the revolving door at quarterback including underclassmen, walk-ons and transfers and 5) the upset of #3 Oklahoma and #4 TCU. Montgomery is fantastic. He has good speed, is amazing at breaking tackles and gaining yards after contact and is a reliable receiver. He is just a sophomore so he’s not coming out in 2018 but there’s a chance he is my top RB next year. Leading receiver Allen Lazard is a 6’5″ red zone monster (15 of his 25 career touchdowns came inside the twenty). I think Lazard is underappreciated as far as draftniks go. I had him as WR13 a few weeks ago but will likely move him up into the WR10 range. The Iowa State defense has played well most of the season and is led by emotional leader Joel Lanning (the aforementioned former QB). As much as I enjoy rooting for Lanning, I don’t think he’ll be considered by NFL teams.

Memphis has an incredibly efficient and high scoring offense that will be fun to watch against the solid Iowa State defense. QB Riley Ferguson is a former Tennessee transfer who has played exceptionally well in his two seasons at Memphis. Ferguson throws a lot of touchdowns, completes more than 63% of his passes, has never thrown more than 10 INTs in a season and has 10 career rushing touchdowns. He’s also 6’4″; like Ryan Finley at NC State he is just 210lbs so needs to add some weight for the NFL. I think Ferguson sneaks up NFL draft boards and gets taken on Day Two. Ferguson’s top target was undoubtedly WR Anthony Miller. I fell in love with Miller in the preseason when I jokingly compared him to Antonio Brown. In hindsight that comp may have been more accurate than I could have guessed. Miller caught 92 balls for 1,407 yards and 17 TDs. Miller has unreal hands, great body control and is tough. If you watched the AAC Championship game you might recall how exhausted and banged up he was yet he was on the field and still making plays when it mattered the most. I want him on my NFL team and my fantasy team and I don’t care what pick it takes. In September, I had him at 2.02 for 2018 rookie drafts but now I would even be willing to part with a late first for him.

By the rankings this may not be the best game of the day but I bet it’s the most entertaining. The Tigers offense is just too good to stop. Prediction: Memphis

PlayStation Fiesta Bowl, #11 Washington Huskies (10-2) vs. #9 Penn State (10-2), 4 p.m. (ESPN)

Washington: 17th scoring offense, 73rd passing offense, 39th rushing offense; 6th scoring defense, 19th passing defense, 2nd rushing defense
Penn State: 7th scoring offense, 26th passing offense, 62nd rushing offense; 7th scoring defense, 43rd passing defense, 17th rushing defense

This PAC-12 vs Big Ten matchup definitely has less going for it than the Ohio State vs USC matchup but it’s still a game with some key NFL prospects to keep an eye on. Thankfully, Penn State RB Saquon Barkley confirmed back in November that he planned to play in the team’s bowl game.

Penn State was looking like a favorite to make the playoff when they were ranked #2 in late October but back-to-back losses to Ohio State and Michigan State put an end to that. Even the most casual of fan knows about Barkley and I have covered him exhaustively for RSO. In fact, I tagged Barkley in thirteen different articles this season. My deepest dive on Barkley came in the preseason in my Big Ten conference preview. At some point you just run out of things to say but he was so dominant at points he just demanded to be discussed. Barkley ran the ball less this year but he increased his yards per attempt (5.5 to 5.7) and became more involved as a receiver (47 receptions, 594 yards and 3 TDs). He’ll likely be a Top 5 NFL Draft pick and will be the unanimous 1.01 pick in fantasy rookie drafts. QB Trace McSorley is also draft eligible but he will probably return for another season. He won’t be able to improve on his size (just 6’0″ and 202lbs) but he can continue to improve his efficiency and yards per attempt. The pass catcher with the highest draft grade in my opinion will be TE Mike Gesicki. Gesicki went for 51-501-9 this season and had one of my favorite highlights of the season when he hurdled McSorley after a touchdown. Penn State keeps track of some combine-like measureables and supposedly Gesicki ran a 4.54 40 yard dash – that is crazy good for somebody his size. I expect that number to increase at the combine, it must be the benefit of some “home cooking,” but still he’s looking at a favorable size/speed comp to the likes of Jimmy Graham and Travis Kelce. The first round may be too early for Gesicki realistically but he’s a Day Two guy at worst. The Nittany Lions’ top defensive prospect is senior safety Marcus Allen. I researched him in the preseason and was nonplussed. I felt he needed to show scouts that he was equally as good in coverage as he is in run support. He still succeeded in run support (just two missed tackles against the run per Pro Football Focus) but he only had one interception (the first of his career) and had just two pass break-ups (just ten in his career). He’ll probably start his career as a situational player and won’t be an IDP factor right away unless he can prove he should stay on the field for every snap.

Washington QB Jake Browning finished 6th in Heisman voting in 2016 after a huge 43 TD season. Unfortunately for Huskies fans, that season was the outlier for Browning as he returned to his 2015 levels with just 18 TDs this year. His completion percentage did increase significantly this year (62.1% to 68.8%) but all of his other rate stats decreased. One of my favorite plays in football is the quick kick from a quarterback and Browning excels at that: he has 11 career punts, averaging about 35 yards per kick. The two offensive standouts are WR Dante Pettis and RB Myles Gaskin. I’ve never been a huge fan of either and I am willing to admit it is probably an east coast bias since I don’t see them play that often. I previewed Pettis in the preseason and expressed concerns that his size would limit him in the NFL. Pettis played in thirteen games each of his first three seasons so he’s avoid any long-term injuries but he is currently hurt (but probabl for the bowl game). He is a good receiver (averaging 40 receptions, 500 yards and 6 TDs per year over his four year career) but a better punt returner (9 career punt return TDs, including 4 in 2017). He’s currently my WR8 and should find himself drafted in the late second round. RB Myles Gaskin is ranked a little lower in my positional rankings (RB13) but he’s somebody that I definitely need to revisit. Gaskin’s numbers are great and if they were attached to a different name I would probably be higher on him. He rushed for 1,282 yards this season and rushed for 19 TDs. He also added 18 grabs for 228 yards and 3 receiving scores. He has been consistent, and healthy, throughout his three year career. He’s gone over 1,300 total yards each year and has 47 career TDs. He’s slightly undersized (think Theo Riddick) but not so small that he can’t play a heavy role in an NFL offense. On defense, LB Azeem Victor and DT Vita Vea are both likley Day Two prospects. Victor’s college career has been marred by injuries and off-field issues (he was suspended to start 2017 for a failed drug test and was suspended late in the season after a DUI arrest). In 2015, his only full season, Victor had 95 tackles, 9 tackles for loss, 1.5 sacks and an interception. Vea is an agile, space-eating DT who could end up going in the late first if he dominates the combine. Chris Trapasso of CBS Sports had Vea going 19th overall in his December 5th mock; Trapasso thinks that Vea may be the most physically strong prospect in the entire draft class.

Given the strength of the two defenses, I expect this one to be a low scoring affair. I’ll take the team with the best player on the field. Prediction: Penn State

Capital One Orange Bowl, #10 Miami (10-2) vs. #6 Wisconsin (12-1), 8 p.m. (ESPN)

Miami: 58th scoring offense, 50th passing offense, 73rd rushing offense; 21st scoring defense, 52nd passing defense, 44th rushing defense
Wisconsin: 31st scoring offense, 95th passing offense, 21st rushing offense; 4th scoring defense, 4th passing defense, 1st rushing defense

The Orange Bowl may feature two Top 10 teams but I’m just not finding the matchup all that intriguing. I was down on Miami for most of the season before the team imploded against an unranked Pitt team and laid an egg against Clemson in the ACC Championship game. At least Wisconsin was competitive in their conference championship and proved that they belonged in the playoff conversation despite a weak schedule.

Hurricanes QB Malik Rosier was overrated, in my opinion, during Miami’s unbeaten run to start the season. He ranks 89th in adjusted completion percentage according to Pro Football Focus; that metric is meant to give a better picture of a quarterback’s accuracy by not counting spikes/throwaways against them and by giving them credit for drops. Per their stats, the Miami receivers dropped 22 passes, which is about average, but even after factoring those back in he is still at the bottom of the list (there are only twelve worse qualifying QBs). Rosier did rush for 427 yards and 5 TDs which helps make up for his negative plays but it’s not enough in big games. Case in point: Rosier was pulled late in the Pitt game to give redshirt sophomore backup Evan Shirreffs a shot. Shirreffs had five career passing attempts at that point so in that moment the coaches though he gave them a better shot than Rosier (predictably, Shirreffs did nothing and was replaced by Rosier). Miami lost RB Mark Walton early in the season but sophomore Travis Homer has emerged in his stead. Homer has over 1,100 total yards and scored 8 TDs. He had a big game against #3 Notre Dame (18 rushes for 146 yards) but had just 55 combined rushing and receiving yards in the late losses to Pitt and Clemson. If Miami is to stand a chance against Wisconsin’s great defense it will fall on Walton. Senior DE Chad Thomas had 30 total pressures per PFF and finished the year with 3.5 sacks. Safety Jaquon Johnson improved his stats in 2017 to end with 85 tackles, 2 forced fumbles, 2 fumble recoveries and 4 INTs. Miami’s defense did get better in 2017 but gone are the days when the NFL Draft was littered with Hurricane defenders; Thomas and Johnson could be mid-round picks but I doubt anybody goes higher than that.

Speaking of defense, Wisconsin’s is a juggernaut. They are 4th in scoring, 4th against the pass and 1st against the run. They don’t have a weakness and it’s unfortunate we did not get to see them play a stronger schedule. We may never know if this was a historic unit or just a product of a soft schedule. Their leader, LB TJ Edwards, is good in both run support (27th ranked in run stop percentage per PFF) and in coverage (4 INTs). According to DraftTek.com, he’s the 11th ranked prospect in the conference and according to WalterFootball.com he’s looking at a 3rd-5th round grade. Edwards may not be a Watt brother but he’s keeping up the tradition of productive Wisconsin linebackers with initials instead of first names! The Badgers offense is all about freshman RB Jonathan Taylor. Taylor had 1,847 rushing yards and 13 TDs this season and he finished 6th in Heisman voting. Those rushing yards ranked him first in the conference and third in the FBS. Not bad for a three star recruit. Taylor still has two more seasons before he’s draft eligible so we have to wait and see what he develops into but he’ll probably be on my Heisman watch list for next season. Aside from offensive tackle Beau Benzschawel, the best offensive prospect is TE Troy Fumagalli. Fumagalli has a long injury history that I discussed in my Big Ten preview, but I still like his chances in the NFL. He’s more of a traditional TE than the “move TE” that is en vogue right now so that may lower how high he is drafted. Regardless of where he is drafted, he will be on the field from day one because of his above average blocking ability. Fumagalli led the team with 43 receptions, 516 yards and 4 TDs. He has already declared for the NFL Draft but Fumagalli has confirmed that he will play in the bowl. Fumagalli may not be a fantasy factor in his rookie season but he’ll still be worth a third round pick.

I don’t have a doubt in my mind that Wisconsin will win this one. Prediction: Wisconsin

Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
Film: draftbreakdown.com, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com
Draft history: drafthistory.com
Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty

Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

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