2018 NFL Mock Draft: Part III, Picks 33-48
If you have not already read Part IV of my mock draft, please start there so you can start at the bottom and follow through to the beginning. Part IV includes detailed notes about my methodology and process. Once they are posted, you can then move on to Part II and then finally to Part I. An important note to remind readers is that this mock draft was compiled on March 30-31 so please keep the timing in mind as you read in case there are trades or free agent signings in the interim.
#48 – Chargers – Justin Reid, S, Stanford
My primary need for the Chargers was on the offensive line. I addressed that with their first round pick to give Phillip Rivers and Melvin Gordon some protection. For the next pick, I wanted to target the defense. Last year’s starting free safety, Tre Boston, has not yet been resigned. Boston led the team in defensive snaps so it’s telling that they didn’t resign him right away. Former undrafted Texas Longhorn Adrian Phillips is the next up at the position, so the Chargers could use an upgrade through the draft if they don’t bring Boston back. Justin Reid is the next best safety available, either free or strong, and could start from Day One. Reid ran the second fastest forty of any safety (4.40) so he has the speed to avoid getting beat deep and he has good ball skills. He also plays well closer to the line of scrimmage (he had 94 tackles and 6.5 tackles for loss in 2017) and would give the Chargers defense some flexibility with how they align the secondary.
#47 – Cardinals – Mason Rudolph, QB, Oklahoma State
I firmly believe that Rudolph will be taken in the #30-40 range and that he won’t actually make it this far, but I’m not mocking any trades so I had to find a home for him. Most of the teams starting the second round don’t, or won’t, need a quarterback (i.e. the Browns and Giants who I expect to draft one earlier or the Bears and Bucs who have their own young QBs). A team may decide to jump up to get him late in the first round to get the extra fifth year of control. Or, a team may trade up to start the second round and guarantee they get the top of their second tier of passers. I am higher on Rudolph than most – he started the year as my QB2. He is a pocket passer with elite size. He has underrated mobility in and around the pocket but he’s certainly not a dual threat. I believe he has a high floor as a quiet locker room leader with a ton of experience and and big arm. The Cardinals signed Sam Bradford to start in the short-term so this would be a good landing spot for Rudolph. He would not be pressured into starting on Day One but he also wouldn’t be stuck behind an entrenched starter for years (i.e. AJ McCarron).
#46 – Bengals – Brian O’Neill, T, Cincinatti
At pick #21, I also had the Bengals going tackle. That’s how badly I think the Bengals need to upgrade their offensive line. I’ll go into more detail at that pick. O’Neill started his career at Pitt as a tight end before transitioning to RT and then to LT. O’Neill led all offensive lineman in the 40 yard dash and the 3-cone drills, by significant margins. He’s tall at 6’7″ but light at 297lbs so he doesn’t really have the frame or the strength to be a starting left tackle in the league. He’s most likely looking at a transition back to the right side or possibly even inside to be an athletic pulling guard where his athleticism could be utilized. Watch out for O’Neill on trick plays: he has three career rushing attempts for 39 yards and 2 TDs.
#45 – Packers – Isaiah Oliver, CB, Colorado
Do you feel a sense of deja vu with the Packers drafting a tall corner near the top of the second round? Last year they took 6’3″ corner Kevin King and this year I have them taking the 6’1″ Isaiah Oliver from Colorado. The Packers finished 28th or worst in numerous passing defense categories last year, including: completion percentage, yards per attempt, passer rating and touchdowns. Oliver is not strong in run support, making just 60 tackles over the last two years, but he does use his length to break up passes (3 INTs and 19 passes defended over the same span). Adding two potential starters to a beleaguered secondary, plus the return of Aaron Rodgers, could make the Packers a Super Bowl contender.
#44 – Redskins – Ronnie Harrison, S, Alabama
According to most experts, Harrison is a first round talent but I just didn’t find the right fit for him in the 25-35 range like I thought I would. He’s the type of player who might get “trade up” attention if he makes it into the second round. If Harrison makes it this far, or if the Redskins decide they want to try and trade up a few picks, I think Ronnie Harrison would be a good target for their defense. Aside from free safety DJ Swearinger, the Redskins have barely any cap tied up in the safety position. The current projected SS is Deshazor Everrett. While Everrett has a great first name, he is a converted corner who went undrafted coming out of Texas A&M. Replacing him with a hard hitting safety like Harrison, who tallied 157 tackles and 5 INTs over the last two seasons, would seriously improve a defense that ranked 28th in points last year.
#43 – Patriots – Jamarco Jones, T, Ohio State
I knew that I wanted the Patriots to take a tackle with this pick after passing on the position at #31 but it was really hard deciding on which tackle. Former starting LT Nate Solder has moved on to the Giants so there’s a big hole to fill on Tom Brady’s blindside. The other players I was considering at this pick were Martinas Rankin, Brian O’Neill and Chukwuma Okorafor. I decided against Rankin and O’Neill because they are less likely to make it as a LT at the next level. Okorafor has the size to be a LT but he’s raw and can’t start right away. Jones is undersized at just 6’4″ and 299lbs but he played well at LT in 2017 against a highest level of competition. The length of Jones’ arms stood out to me. He has longer arms than most of the taller tackle prospects. Of the remaining tackles, I felt that Jones has the best chance to start for the Patriots on Day One. However, if I’m being honest, I fully expect them to trade this pick and take somebody like Jones later.
#42 – Dolphins – Hayden Hurst, TE, South Carolina
What are the Vegas odds on two players named Hurst going back-to-back in the NFL Draft? Hayden Hurst started the season as my top choice at tight end because I believe he is the best combination of blocker and receiver in the class. I predict he’ll start right away because the Dolphins wouldn’t need to hide him on rushing downs. In 2017, Julius Thomas and Anthony Fasano combined for 53 receptions, 495 yards and 4 TDs. Both players are gone, however, and the leading candidate for the starting job would be former college quarterback MarQueis Gray who had just one reception last year. The Dolphins addressed the defense with the Robert Quinn trade, and earlier in this mock, so I think it makes sense to give QB Ryan Tannehill another target.
#41 – Raiders – Maurice Hurst, DT, Michigan
I’ve seen Hurst play in person a number of times against my hometown Rutgers team. When I saw him play the Scarlet Knights out in Ann Arbor this past season he stood out like you wouldn’t believe. He ended up with 8 tackles, 2 tackles for loss and a sack. If possible, his impact seemed even bigger than that from the stands. I was really rooting for Hurst to go high in the draft but those hopes were dashed with the news that he had a previously undiagnosed heart condition. Hurst has since been cleared but not without denting his NFL Draft stock. Hurst is a smaller tackle with good quickness and will fit in well in as a 3-technique in the Raiders 4-3 defense.
#40 – Denver – Frank Ragnow, C/G, Arkansas
According to Spotrac.com, the Denver Broncos have six offensive linemen hitting free agency in 2019 (two each at tackle, guard and center). That means they need to bring in reinforcements now to avoid having to over-spend next offseason. It’s also important to solidify the line considering that they used the #5 overall pick on a QB in this mock. Ragnow was PFF’s top ranked center in both 2016 and 2017. He played guard in 2015 so he has some versatility as well. According to PFF’s stat tracking, Ragnow did not allow a single sack over the last three years. In fact, in 2017 he did not even allow any hits to the quarterback. That’s impressive. Ragnow is the type of player that will elicit groans from fans attending the Draft but will be a franchise cornerstone for a decade.
#39 – Bears – Arden Key, EDGE, LSU
Key was projected to go much higher than #38 early in 2017, however, he has since fallen due to injury and off the field concerns. Key had shoulder surgery in the Spring of 2017 while away from the team for “personal reasons.” What those personal reasons are, I have no idea. Since Key has not come out and fully explained why he stepped away from the team, I can only guess that it’s a negative story. I’ll bet NFL personnel are thinking the same. Key also suffered a hand injury which limited his playing time in 2017. When he was on the field, he recorded just four sacks in eight games (after eleven in eleven in 2016). At the combine, Key declined to participate in the 40 yard dash, citing a knee injury. He also did not do the bench press. Of the events he did complete, the shuttle was the only one where he finished in the top five among DE/EDGE. Key is a high risk, high reward player who will need time to adapt to a OLB role in a 3-4. If he pans out, even as a situational rusher, he’ll be a steal for the Bears at #39.
#38 – Bucs – Jaire Alexander, CB, Louisville
The Bucs signed 34 year old Brent Grimes to a one year extension this offseason but they need a young option to line up alongside Vernon Hargreaves. Alexander missed significant time in 2017 with leg and hand injuries, but when he was on the field he allowed just a 17.7 passer rating against. That’s incredible. Per Pro Football Focus, Alexander was about 20 points better in that metric than Joshua Jackson, the second best. Alexander also tested well at the combine, running a 4.38 and performing well in the 3-cone and shuttle. I’m higher on Alexander than most so maybe I’m reading too much into his stats and potential but I’d like to give him a shot. If it weren’t for the injury riddled 2017, Alexander would have ended up even higher.
#37 – Colts – Carlton Davis, CB, Auburn
Davis measured in as one of the biggest corners at the combine (6’1″ and 203lbs) and has long arms which helps his ball hawking ability (10 pass break ups each of the last two years). Davis would be a solid addition to a secondary that the Colts front office has been trying to build through the draft. In the last three years, the Colts have used six picks on defensive backs, five of those coming in the first four rounds. Having four picks in the Top 50 means you can concentrate less on immediate need here and instead build a strength.
#36 – Colts – Courtland Sutton, WR, SMU
With the first of back-to-back picks, I have the Colts going WR which is a big position of need. Aside from the flashy TY Hilton, they don’t have much at receiver. Donte Moncrief is gone, as is veteran journeyman Kamar Aiken. The Colts signed former Redskins WR Ryan Grant in free agency to a one-year deal but he’s nothing to get excited about. Sutton is a big bodied receiver with great body control along the sidelines. He can use his height and length to high point the ball and make contested catches. He doesn’t have the best straight line speed but he did surprise at the combine in the 3-cone and shuttle agility drills. Sutton’s skill set compliments that of Hilton so Colts fans should look forward to this pairing for the returning Andrew Luck.
#35 – Browns – Tyrell Crosby, T, Oregon
I still don’t think any of the remaining tackles are worth the pick here at #35 but the Browns don’t pick again until #64 and they need a long term replacement for the retired Joe Thomas so they’ll have to pull the trigger on Crosby. I also considered Pitt LT Brian O’Neill here but Crosby projects more like a LT rather than a RT or G like O’Neill. Crosby’s combine performance was mostly forgettable but he did measure in heavier than O’Neil with longer arms and bigger hands, despite O’Neill’s height advantage.
#34 – Giants – Derrius Guice, RB, LSU
The Giants would have considered going RB at #2 overall with Saquon Barkley on the board, but instead they went for a QB. Being able to get the second ranked running back at #34 is a great opportunity for the Giants. They did sign 31 year old Jonathan Stewart this offseason but they also invested big money in two offensive linemen in Nate Solder and Patrick Omameh. In my opinion, the Giants wouldn’t have spent that money if they didn’t intend on replenishing their offensive weapons. An opening day offense featuring Eli Manning, Stewart, Guice, Odell Beckham Jr, Sterling Shepard, Evan Engram and a re-worked offensive line would set this team up for success in 2018.
#33 – Browns – Da’Ron Payne, DT, Alabama
The Browns have addressed their secondary in free agency by signing three players so I don’t think they will target a CB with the 33rd pick. I also don’t think they will go with a offensive tackle because none truly warrant this pick. Instead, I think they will use another high pick on a defensive lineman. They already have two great ends in Myles Garrett and Emmanuel Ogbah, but they could use some help on the interior. In comes Da’Ron Payne from Alabama. Payne weighs in at 311lbs and is a pure run stopper (he has just 3 career sacks and 5 tackles for loss). He would make for a good anchor for the Browns’ defensive line.
Note: When watching film for a player in the offseason, I typically pick two games at random to watch. If game film is not available I will search for highlight reels, but keep in mind these are the best plays that player had all season so they really need to jump off the screen. I do not necessarily want to watch games where they did very well or very poorly as that may not be a great illustration of their true ability. If possible, when comparing players at the same position I also like to watch film against common opponents. Full disclosure, I am not watching film of every single game any player plays, instead I am looking for a representative sample. When researching college players I use a number of resources, I would recommend bookmarking the below sites…
- Stats: espn.com, sports-reference.com, cfbstats.com, herosports.com, fcs.football, foxsports.com
- Film: 2018 NFL Draft Database by @CalhounLambeau, youtube.com (but be wary of highlight only reels)
- Draft info and mocks: draftcountdown.com, nfldraftscout.com, walterfootball.com, mattwaldmanrsp.com, draftek.com, ndtscouting.com
- Draft history: drafthistory.com
- Combine info: pro-football-reference.com, espn.com, nflcombineresults.com
- Season preview magazines: Phil Steele, Lindy’s, Street and Smith’s
- Podcasts: ESPN’s First Draft, Strong as Steele with Phil Steele, The Audible by Football Guys (specifically episodes w/ Matt Waldman), UTH Dynasty, Draft Dudes
Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey. Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.
