The year of the breakout first or second year quarterback is over. Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, and Derek Carr all took positive steps in 2015 that have created a buzz among their fan bases and fantasy owners alike. Speaking purely in terms of their fantasy value, could the hype make these players overvalued in dynasty football? We’ll examine further as we explore the 3 steps to maximizing quarterback value.
Step 1: Sell young quarterbacks who broke through in 2015
Time to sell as Buccaneers’ QB Jameis Winston’s stock has never been higher
Immediately upon reading that, you may recoil. You may be asking yourself, “Why would I want to give up a young QB who appears to be on the track towards becoming useful in fantasy on a week to week basis?” The answer is simple. They’re worth more on the trade market than they are on your roster. 2015 was a breakout fantasy year for Jameis Winston, Marcus Mariota, Blake Bortles, and Derek Carr as many became serviceable plays in the right matchups. The assumption among many in the fantasy community is that these players will continue on that positive trajectory. However we’ve seen countless examples of quarterbacks showing promise, yet never quite making it to that tier of elite fantasy quarterbacks. If we look back just seven months ago, Teddy Bridgewater and Ryan Tannehill were two of the hottest names in dynasty football. Both were selected among the top 7 quarterbacks in start-up dynasty mock drafts according to Dynasty League Football’s August 2015 Average Draft Position data. After having disappointing seasons, neither is drafted among the top 16 quarterbacks in DLF’s Feb 2016 ADP data. Imagine if Bridgewater and Tannehill owners had a do-over. Think they wish they’d cashed in on the buzz surrounding these quarterbacks entering the 2015 season? Of course. For every exception like Andrew Luck or Cam Newton, there are cautionary tails that failed to launch themselves into the elusive grouping of elite quarterbacks.
Step 2: Buy undervalued veteran quarterbacks outside of the elite tier and focus your most valuable resources towards wide receivers
These types of quarterbacks are severely undervalued in many Reality Sports Online leagues, yet many were productive in 2015. According to Fantasy Pros 2015 fantasy points per game data, which uses settings similar to RSO’s standard scoring, Drew Brees ranked 4th place in points per game, Carson Palmer 6th, Andy Dalton 10th, Kirk Cousins 12th, Eli Manning 14th, Ryan Fitzpatrick 15th, and Philip Rivers 16th. If the rest of your roster is strong, you certainly can build a championship team by acquiring one or two of these types of quarterbacks each year. To take full advantage of this strategy, you’ll need to be aggressive in free agency and the trade market since you’ll be targeting these quarterbacks who are often and preferably on short-term deals.
Instead of investing heavily in quarterbacks, my priority in RSO and standard dynasty leagues alike is to build my team around elite wide receivers. From year to year, wide receivers hold their value significantly better than running backs. These are the players that I want to invest in with my long-term contracts and that I value so highly in RSO leagues. More specifically, I’m placing these long-term contracts on the high-priced elite wide receivers and players of all positions, except quarterback, that I believe in significantly more than the consensus of my opponents. An example of this would be fantasy players that liked Michael Crabtree‘s potential last season. Anyone who was smart enough to lock in Crabtree on multi-year contract at an inexpensive salary has profited significantly on Crabtree and will for years to come. In the coming months, I will release a piece identifying several players that I’m targeting with these long-term contracts in start-up drafts and free agency.
Saints’ QB Drew Brees is the perfect type of veteran to target
If we relate this strategy of profitability back to quarterbacks, the buzz around these young quarterbacks is so high that they are going to cost a lofty price in start-up drafts. The opportunity to profit is minimal, at best. In established leagues, you only have these quarterbacks for 3-4 years from when they enter the league before you have to franchise tag them or allow them to enter free agency. How many times during those 3-4 years will they actually be a top 5, difference making quarterback? Blake Bortles was the only QB1 quarterback ranked in the top 10 in points per game among quarterbacks to play in at least 7 games. Marcus Mariota placed 17th, Jameis Winston 18th, and Derek Carr 19th. Mariota, Winston, and Carr could all take another step forward and still not crack the top 10 in points per game, which would make them not even an average fantasy starter. The price to acquire your preference of Drew Brees, Carson Palmer, Philip Rivers, Eli Manning, or Ryan Fitzpatrick is very low in start-up drafts or even through trades in established leagues. Make the move for one or two of these quarterbacks and allocate most of your resources elsewhere.
Step 3: Avoid drafting quarterbacks in rookie drafts
RB David Johnson, taken outside of the 1st Rd in 2015 drafts, burst onto the scene late in the season
When building a team on Reality Sports Online, I am most concerned with how my players can outperform what they cost for me to acquire them, whether it’s through the draft or free agency. As we’ve discussed earlier, rookie quarterbacks offer the lowest chance of profitability while they remain on your roster. Aside from the value they may have in trades, quarterbacks in rookie drafts don’t have the breakout potential and weekly “start-ability” that you can find in running backs, wide receivers, and tight ends. If we take another look at DLF’s August 2015 ADP data, all of these players were taken outside of the top 10 in rookie drafts: David Johnson, Duke Johnson, Tyler Lockett, Devin Funchess, Jeremy Langford, Jay Ajayi, Javorius Allen, Matt Jones, Tevin Coleman, Phillip Dorsett, David Cobb, Jaelen Strong, Maxx Williams, Cameron Artis-Payne, Ty Montgomery, and Zach Zenner. Thomas Rawls even went undrafted. Locking players like these in for 3-4 years allows you to profit significantly on these picks as they are much more likely to find ways into your lineups than quarterbacks will. For example, rookie running backs can quickly become NFL starters and immediately fantasy RB1s: see how David Johnson and Thomas Rawls finished 2015. Aside from Johnson and Rawls, there are many names in this group that hold more value going into 2016 than their RSO rookie contract would indicate. In addition to profiting for the next 2 to 3 years, a few of these players may be worthy of the franchise tag for a season or two if their production warrants. While you may hit on the occasional quarterback that you’re able to trade for profit after a breakout, the smarter strategy is to use your draft picks on other positions which feature a much better likelihood of profitability.
Personal Bio: An avid fan of all things NFL, Dave has been playing fantasy football since 1999. Though Dave participates in all types of fantasy football including redraft and daily, he prefers keeper and dynasty leagues as talent evaluation and scouting are integral components of each.
