IDP Start/Sit: Week 5
We are at the quarter mark of the NFL season and we have plenty of interesting stories. Khalil Mack’s six sack game chief among them. Devon Witherspoon trying to cement his pace in IDP relevance as well. But let’s see who we can find for our lineups this week to deliver some of that awesome IDP value!
Week 4 Recap
DL:
Start: Za’Darius Smith (1 assist) 👎
Sit: Rashan Gary (1 QB hit) 👍
LB:
Start: Alex Singleton (4 solos, 8 assists) 👎 – let’s call it meh
Sit: Tremain Edmunds (6 solos, 2 assists, 1 TFL) 👎
DB:
Start: Rudy Ford (7 solos, 1 assists, 1 INT, 1 PD) 👍
Sit: Tyrann Mathieu (3 solos, 2 assists) 👍
Week 5 Starts & Sits
START: David Onyemata, Atlanta Falcons, DL35 (DT11)
David Onyemata has had a very successful season so far. He has notched 2 sacks, 4 QB hits, 13 total tackles. That success isn’t likely to stall out in his week matchup against the Houston Texans. This is a Texans team that has allowed 63 pressures on CJ Stroud so far this year (6th most) and even with Stroud’s movement in the pocket, he has been sacked 11 times as well (7th most). And the Texans interior defense suffered another injury with their current RG landing on injured reserved after an injury against the Steelers.
Onyemata’s production has been backed by some strong marks, too. He is 6th among all pass-rushers in his True Pass Rush win rate at 33.3%! One-third of his snaps are resulting in a win and his chance to make a play in the backfield on the QB. Add in Houston’s 5th most passing plays ran this year and their willingness to air it out, Onyemata should have a beautiful intersection of opportunity and talent that should lead to a very productive week.
SIT: Sam Hubbard, Cincinnati Bengals, DL34 (ED24)
Sam Hubbard has delivered his standard performance at the quarter mark for the NFL season. 2 sacks, 22 combined tackles, 2 TFLs, 5 QB hits. He takes his solid performance this season to Arizona against the scrappy Cardinals. The Bengals have under-delivered this season as a football team, and I am afraid Sam Hubbard will do the same here in week 5, too.
Josh Dobbs and the Cardinals have done a nice job avoiding pass rushes and have done so with some young, new talent in Paris Johnson. And a very specific gameplan, 9th fastest time to throw amongst all QBs with at least 50 pass attempts. This has led to Dobbs being the 9th lowest pressures (44) and 8th lowest sacks (6).
Add in the fact that the Bengals offense has been struggling too with injury and performance, the defense can only do so much, after so long. This cross-section for Hubbard does not bode well for him to have an overly productive week.
START: Chad Muma, Jacksonville Jaguars, LB40
Chad Muma was a LB prospect who had some promise, upside, and excitement last year during the draft process. But he ended up behind a stud in Foyesade and top draft talent, Devin Lloyd. He had a chance to show out a bit last year and he gets his chance this year with an injury to Lloyd this season. In his first game, he totaled 7 total tackles and 2 pass breakups. Now he gets his second game overseas in a row against the Buffalo Bills and their top-ten offense in passing and rushing. This should lead to plenty of opportunities against this Jaguars defense that has struggled against the pass, too.
While his PFF grades leave a lot to be desired, Muma is their best option this week and should see near 100% snap utilization this week again. I also believe in the fact that Jacksonville has a second week in a row overseas and this should play as an advantage for him to put up a better performance overall. This is likely a limited value for Muma, so let’s enjoy this for now and if you are still looking for LB play after this week, we will have to find that value somewhere else moving forward.
SIT: Demario Davis, New Orleans Saints, LB35
Demario Davis has been an IDP stalwart for years, so it feels a bit blasphemous to call him a sit, but we are at that point in his career where it is time to call what we see. Davis dip in production starts at his tackle floor. His tackle efficiency has dipped below 9% so far this season and seems to only be trending downward at this point. His pass-rush upside was usually able to help make up for a lesser tackle rate, but even that has seen a dip. He was rushing the passer every 12.5% of his snaps for his career, but so far this year, it has dropped to 10.25% already this year.
In addition to his declining IDP performance, Pete Werner’s ascension in IDP value has been happening. Between these two things, Demario Davis is an IDP asset that I would be fading at this point with his fading tackle floor and reduced pass-rush upside, but OK starting as a deeper option thanks to the fact that he is still a near 100% snap LB.
START: Jayron Kearse, Dallas Cowboys, DB38 (S34)
Jayron Kearse hasn’t had the highest tackle floor this season, but he has been utilized in a great way to optimize that and deliver a higher tackle floor. He has played 80.55% in the sweet spot (Box, DL, Slot) and the matchup against the San Francisco 49ers has been a very IDP lucrative for LBs. And Kearse is essentially acting and playing as the 2nd or 3rd LB in this Cowboys defense.
Kearse has added a nice bonus to his IDP production with some increased productivity in coverage in the early season. He has 1 interception and 3 pass break ups which we like to see the PBUs as something more indicative of IDP production in coverage, beyond just racking up the tackles. With the matchup, the little bit of upside, and the excellent alignment usage, I am excited to fire up Jayron Kearse this week.
SIT: Jalen Pitre, Houston Texans, DB5 (S5)
Sitting our IDP darling from 2022 feels silly. A guy who was able to compile almost 150 tackles last season from the safety position, feels like a cheat code! But through his two games this season, he has only compiled 4 total tackles and a FF. One of those games was only half the snaps due to injury, but even last week with a full complement of snaps, he only compiled 2 total tackles.
The Houston Texans defense has shown to be a bit more competent under new coaching and some additional talent via the draft and free agency. This has limited the need and opportunity for Jalen Pitre to be such a playmaker. He is still taking 44.7% of his snaps from the sweet spot, but this is not the same usage he had last season.
In week 5, he faces the Atlanta Falcons whose limited offense attack downfield, means reduced opportunity for the Texans safeties when not in an ideal alignment. The Falcons have been a bottom-half matchup for their opponents’ safeties, meaning Texans safeties should see an overall decrease in their IDP production. This still might be enough to keep Pitre in shallower leagues but keep your expectations lowered for Pitre here in week 5.
