Week 8 Street FA Report

Updated: October 31st 2018

Each week we will recommend a group of players that are owned in less than 50% of RSO league that should be rostered. Depending on roster and league sizes not all of these players may be available. For that, we will offer 1 player that is owned in <10% of leagues as our Sleeper add.

Byes: Atlanta, Dallas, LA Chargers, Tennessee

Add of the Week

Raheem Mostert, RB – SF (Owned 33%)

Week 7: 7 Car/59 yards, 4 Rec/19 yards

I was thinking of put Raheem Mostert as a sleeper addition last week but wanted to see one more game to ensure that it wasn’t a fluke that he had leapfrogged Alfred Morris. While Morris still out-touched him in the backfield (9 to 7) Mostert had four receptions to Morris’ zero which leaves no question who the 49ers pass catching back is. Furthermore, Matt Breida is not healthy enough right now for the 49ers to rely on him so he may be shut down for a week or two to try and fully heal himself. That means that Mostert will see an increased role alongside Alfred Morris and could be the primary option depending on the game script. Your FA pool is likely low of flex RBs at this point so best to bring the big bucks if you want to win your bid this week.

Suggested Bid: $4,000,000 – $6,000,000

RB Add

Chris Ivory, RB – BUF (Owned 49%)

Week 7: 16 Car/81 yards, 3 Rec/25 yards

The Bills were blown out early in this game and they lost LeSean McCoy almost immediately which allowed for Chris Ivory to accumulate almost a full games worth of garbage points. Derek Anderson has already been named the starter for Monday night against the Patriots and it doesn’t look as if McCoy will clear concussion protocol in time. If you are in need of a running back and are willing to risk waiting till Monday, Ivory may be leaned on again in the Bills’ offensive game plan.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

WR Adds

Tajae Sharpe, WR – TEN (Owned 13%)

Week 7: 7 Rec/101 yards

Tennesse’s offense has been terrible this season. If the Cardinals weren’t setting historic lows for offensive numbers the Titans would be dead last in most categories. If there is an upside though it is that the remainder of their schedule gets slightly easier in terms of defensive matchups. Games against Washington, both New York teams, and Indianapolis twice means that there is at least a hope for the Titans to have bigger games ahead. Tajae Sharpe was the only player to produce in London this past week and seems solidified as the #2 across from Corey Davis. They are on a bye this week so hopefully, Sharpe is cheaper to acquire than other options on the waivers for teams needing immediate replacements.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

 

Danny Amendola, WR – MIA (Owned 25.6%)

Week 7: 6 Rec/84 yards, 1 TD

In week 4 I said Danny Amendola was the player to add and he followed that up with a relatively low 6 PPR points. However, his last two games he has been targeted 18 times and has scored an average of 17 PPR points with the Brock Lobster at QB. All his fellow receivers (Kenny Stills and Albert Wilson) are banged up which should keep his targets in the same range for at least a couple more games. If Tannehill also misses more games give a checkmark to Amendola and his fantasy value.

Suggested Bid: $2,000,000 – $3,000,000

TE Adds

Chris Herndon IV, TE – NYJ (Owned 16.5%)

Week 7: 4 Rec/42 yards, 1 TD

Stat chasers may race to acquire Lions’ tight end Michael Roberts who scored twice on Sunday and had 20 fantasy points. The savvy owners will look deeper and see that Chris Herndon is actually the better add. He scored for the second straight week and was targeted the second most (7) out of all Jet players. Quincy Enunwa is injured again, Terrell Pryor was a surprise cut last week, and Jermaine Kearse saw only two targets and caught neither. Both starting running backs are also banged up so the options are limited for rookie QB Sam Darnold. Any time the Jets get into the red zone he’s likely to be looking Herndon’s way.

Suggested Bid: $1,000,000

Sleeper Adds (<10%)

Kenjon Barner, RB – NE (Owned 4%)

Week 7: 10 Car/36 yards

We don’t know the extent of Sony Michel’s injury but in his absence, Kenjon Barber saw 10 carries to James White’s 11. The Patriots offense works best when it has fresh legs in the backfield to rotate in and out throughout long drives. White will always be the pass-catching back but they still need someone to spell him for traditional running plays. Any time that Michel misses means that there will be an opportunity for Barner to be a sneaky flex play.

Suggested Bid: $500,000

More Analysis by Nick Andrews

FA Auction: Lessons Learned

Updated: June 18th 2016

Last time in this space, I took a look at the most frequently cut players from each offensive skill position.  My hope was that an analysis of where we went wrong last year could help steer us in this season’s free agent auction.  After all, nothing could sink a promising franchise faster than dead cap space.

For each position I picked a few players who I think that you should avoid spending big money on in your 2016 free agent auction.  Every player can be valuable with the right contract, this is not to say the below players should not be owned, I am arguing you should avoid splashing the cash on them.  First, let’s start with the obvious caveat: every league is different (size, scoring, roster size, etc.), so your mileage may vary, one league’s trash could be another’s treasure.

QUARTERBACKS:

  1. Tyrod Taylor
  2. Brock Osweiler

The biggest take away after looking at last year’s most frequently released QBs was that you should not overpay for a small sample size.  I am not advocating skipping these two altogether, but I think prudence is the key.  Taylor went 8-6 and only threw 6 INTs (3 of which in one game) but he also had five games with less than 15 completions and five games with less than 200 yards passing.  The x-factor for Taylor, of course, is his rushing ability but that is the part that worries me: it will either lead to injury, it could be game planned away by the defense or be removed from his own game plan as preservation (see: Robert Griffin III).  I’m staying away from Taylor this year, I would rather be the guy who missed on him rather than have to eat his salary later.

For Osweiler, the sample size is much smaller and his rate stats were lower than Taylor’s (completion percentage, rating, yards per attempt, etc).  So, why do I think you should avoid Taylor more so than Osweiler?  Osweiler’s value is not so heavily influenced by his rushing ability, or lack thereof.  Osweiler is a “prototypical” quarterback and has 7″ and about 20lb on Taylor.  Still, though, I am concerned what a change of scenery will mean for Brock and can’t help but see him as the next Matt Flynn.  I wouldn’t avoid him at all costs but I would only offer him a one- or at a maximum, a two-year deal.

RUNNING BACKS:

  1. Chris Ivory
  2. Matt Forte
  3. Demarco Murray

The theme with last year’s most frequently cut RBs was that you should avoid the hype of the veteran who was changing teams.  Despite some niggling injuries last year, both Ivory and Forte had decent seasons in 2015.  Ivory broke 1,000 yards for the first time in his career (1,070) and had more receptions (30) than he had the rest of his career combined (23).  Forte missed three games but was on pace for another 1,000 yard rushing season if he played the full campaign; he also pitched in with 44 receptions which was down on a per-game basis from 2014 but is still more than most RBs see in a full season.  Ivory has left the Jets for Jacksonville and Forte has taken his place.  Unless I can get them for just $2 or $3 million, I am probably skipping both Ivory and Forte.

Murray is interesting after what could not have been a more disappointing season in Philly last year.  He joins the Titans and could be at a point where his stock is so low you could actually get him for a song.  The ultimate post-hype sleeper.  He’s burned me once though, so I’m going to sit this year out.  I might let another owner take him, and if the contract is small enough, try to swing a trade once training camp starts and we see how the Titans backfield will work out.  Or maybe that’s the Cowboys fan in me talking.

WIDE RECEIVERS:

  1. Jordy Nelson – Jeff Janis
  2. Michael Crabtree – Seth Roberts
  3. Brandin Cooks – Willie Snead

The lesson to be learned last year was to not spend too much money on the up-and-coming WRs who may unseat an established veteran.  So, for this position, I thought it would be useful to look at both the old and the new at the same time because I would actually avoid picking both sides of these pairs.

Jeff Janis had a memorable playoff game for the Packers against the Cardinals (7-145-2) but is it enough to make everybody forget about Jordy Nelson who missed the season due to injury?  Probably not, but I have just enough doubt to avoid Nelson this year.  Nelson is now 31 and has had two serious injuries – an ACL and a hamstring – which forced him to miss significant time.  Dynasty players know Janis well but I don’t think his brief flash is enough to warrant anything more than a minimum contract – many of us have been fooled by his potential already.

Amari Cooper is obviously the top Raiders WR to own, but who should you target second?  After all, Derek Carr does like to air the ball out.  I’m not biting on Crabtree’s 85-922-9 and instead think that Seth Roberts will emerge.  Roberts was an unheralded rookie out of West Alabama whose line was 32-480-5.  Like Janis, his sample size is too small to spend on, but his presence means I will not sign Crabtree this offseason.

Chances are that Willie Snead was snagged off waivers by somebody last year rather than being signed to a long term deal.  I cannot imagine there were too many owners who were holding Snead futures so he’s likely up for free agency.  I’d bite in a PPR league but there weren’t enough TDs there for standard scoring, in my opinion.  Snead’s emergence dented Brandin Cooks’ potential.  Cooks didn’t score his first TD or surpass 100 yards until Week 5; ultimately he had six sub-50 yard games versus just four over-100 yard games.  His strong suit was supposed to be the volume of receptions but even that was lacking – just 84.  The saving grace for Cooks fantasy-wise was his 9 TDs but I would take the under for 2016.  Snead and Cooks are too similar in their playing style and so cannibalize each other’s opportunities to succeed.

TIGHT ENDS:

  1. David Johnson
  2. Alex Smith
  3. Coby Fleener
  4. Ladarius Green

In my last piece, I noted that David Johnson and Alex Smith were two of the most frequently cut tight ends.  Originally I attributed it to their deep, deep sleeper status but after further thought I think it was definitely because they share a name with another position player.  Whether it was an honest mistake or an unscrupulous nomination, I think some owners ended up with the wrong guy and immediately cut bait landing them on the list.  Don’t make that mistake again this year, folks.

Last year, we should have all held off on anointing Josh Hill the Jimmy Graham heir apparent, and I think this year you should similarly avoid Fleener.  Green is likewise joining a new team, the Steelers, and while he has shown flashes, he’s never been the go-to tight end for an extended period of time.  Ultimately, I think both are so close to replacement level that I wouldn’t bother.


Robert F. Cowper is a freelance writer who lives in New Jersey.  Robert works as a recreation professional, specializing in youth sports, when he isn’t acting as commissioner for his many fantasy sports leagues.

More Analysis by Bob Cowper